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Development, Testing, and Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of A Development, Testing, and Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of a Transport and Reaction Simulation Engine (TaRSE) for Spatially Distributed Modeling of Phosphorus in the Peat Marsh Wetlands of Southern Florida By James W. Jawitz, Rafael Muñoz-Carpena, Stuart Muller, Kevin A. Grace, and Andrew I. James Prepared in Cooperation with the South Florida Water Management District Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5029 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior DIRK KEMPTHORNE, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Mark D. Myers, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2008 For product and ordering information: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS For more information on the USGS--the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. Suggested citation: Jawitz, J.W., Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael, Muller, Stuart, Grace, K.A., and James A.I., 2008, Development, Testing, and Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of a Transport and Reaction Simulation Engine (TaRSE) for Spatially Distributed Modeling of Phosphorus in the Peat Marsh Wetlands of Southern Florida: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investiga- tions Report 2008-5029, 109 p. iii Contents Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................2 Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................3 Description of Study Area ...................................................................................................................3 Previous Studies ...................................................................................................................................3 Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................5 Model Conceptualization ..............................................................................................................................5 Model Notation......................................................................................................................................5 Stores ......................................................................................................................................................5 Biomass .........................................................................................................................................5 Water Column ...............................................................................................................................9 Soil ..................................................................................................................................................9 Physical and Biological Transfer Mechanisms .............................................................................10 Physical Transfer Processes ...................................................................................................10 Water Flows .......................................................................................................................10 Atmospheric Deposition ..................................................................................................10 Pore-water/Surface-Water Transfer .............................................................................11 Settling and Entrainment of Particulate Material ........................................................11 Sloughing and Cohesion of Biofilm ................................................................................13 Sorption/Desorption .........................................................................................................13 Mineral Precipitation .......................................................................................................13 Biological Transfer Processes .................................................................................................14 Growth of Biological Tissues ..........................................................................................14 Senescence and Decay of Biological Tissues .............................................................14 Soil Oxidation and Mineralization and Burial ...............................................................15 Feedbacks and External Environmental Factors ...........................................................................15 Light Limitation ...........................................................................................................................16 Temperature Effects ..................................................................................................................16 Vegetation Effects on Flow Restriction ..................................................................................16 Reaction Equations .............................................................................................................................17 Model Calibration and Validation ..............................................................................................................19 Level 1—Soil Cores ............................................................................................................................19 Level 2—Outdoor Mesocosms .........................................................................................................21 Level 3—Stormwater Treatment Area-1W, Cell 4 .........................................................................22 Global Sensitivity Analysis .........................................................................................................................31 Techniques and Screening Methods ...............................................................................................31 Morris Method............................................................................................................................32 Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) ............................................................32 Effects of Changing Model Structure and Flow Velocity on Global Model Output Sensitivity ..................................................................................................................33 Analysis Procedure ...................................................................................................................33 Flow Domain ..............................................................................................................................33 iv Description of Inputs and Outputs ..........................................................................................34 Morris Method Results .............................................................................................................35 Screening of Parameters ................................................................................................47 Ranking of Parameters ....................................................................................................48 Effect of Flow Velocity ......................................................................................................48 Effect of Model Complexity .............................................................................................48 Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) Results ..............................................49 Surface-Water Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (CswP]o,tf) Case Study .....................49 General Trends Observed in Sensitivity Dynamics .....................................................59 Analysis and Assessment of Model Uncertainty from Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) Simulations .................................................................................................................60 Level-1 Uncertainty.............................................................................................................................60 Level-2 Uncertainty.............................................................................................................................61 Level-3 Uncertainty.............................................................................................................................67 Summary and Conclusions .........................................................................................................................68 References Cited..........................................................................................................................................70 Appendix 1: Model Nomenclature Used in this Study ...........................................................................78 Appendix 2: Model Parameter Values for Levels 1, 2, and 3 .................................................................81 Appendix
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