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MAY OIL NEVER TEAR US APART How Political Institutions Shape Federative Crises on Oil Revenues

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MAY OIL NEVER TEAR US APART How Political Institutions Shape Federative Crises on Oil Revenues Fundação Getúlio Vargas – FGV Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas - EBAPE Ph.D. Thesis MAY OIL NEVER TEAR US APART How Political Institutions Shape Federative Crises on Oil Revenues Ph.D. Student MAURICIO CARLOS RIBEIRO Thesis Advisor CARLOS PEREIRA Rio de Janeiro, July 2016 Fundação Getúlio Vargas – FGV Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas - EBAPE MAY OIL NEVER TEAR US APART How Political Institutions Shape Federative Crises on Oil Revenues MAURICIO CARLOS RIBEIRO Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor in Business Administration at the Fundação Getulio Vargas - Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas – Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration. Date of defense: September 29th, 2016 Thesis Advisor CARLOS PEREIRA Ficha catalográfica elaborada pela Biblioteca Mario Henrique Simonsen/FGV Ribeiro, Mauricio Carlos Araujo May oil never tear us apart: how political institutions shape federative crisis on oil revenues / Maurício Carlos Ribeiro. – 2016. 251 f. Tese (doutorado) - Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas, Centro de Formação Acadêmica e Pesquisa. Orientador: Carlos Pereira. Inclui bibliografia. 1. Indústria petrolífera – Política governamental. 2. Petróleo. 3. Federalismo. 4. Conflito. I. Pereira Filho, Carlos Eduardo Ferreira. II. Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas. Centro de Formação Acadêmica e Pesquisa. III. Título. CDD – 351 To the memory of the millions of civilians and soldiers who died in civil conflicts on oil wealth around the world. “Now that there’s oil in South Sudan, the next war is not going to be just 17 years, it is going to be 170 years.” (President Gaafar Nimeiri of Sudan, circa 1980) “Oil is not of the government of the State of Rio de Janeiro, it is not of Petrobras; it is of Brazilian people and we need to discuss the fate of this oil.” (Former Brazilian president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, August 2008). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I decided to write the acknowledgements in Portuguese, and I had two reasons to do it: first of all, I think that thanks must always be given in the language that one’s heart speaks, and mine is Portuguese; second, all people that I would like to thank can read Portuguese, either native or not to the rustic and beautiful last flower of Latium, as Olavo Bilac poetically described our language. Meus agradecimentos vão inicialmente para Carlos Pereira, que, mais do que orientador, tornou-se meu amigo. A ele agradeço por todas as ideias, por nossos debates, nossas discussões sobre a conjuntura política e sobre as coisas boas da vida, e pela paciência na tarefa de lapidar um estudante caótico como eu em alguém que pudesse escrever um trabalho acadêmico. Agradeço imensamente a Robert Gregory Michener, que me fez perceber a importância do conflito federativo canadense de 1980, e a Octavio Amorim Neto, que me apresentou a metodologia que usei neste trabalho, agradecendo a ambos também por toda a valiosíssima ajuda e por me darem ouvidos quando tudo o que eu tinha ainda eram inconformismos e reflexões, antes de serem pesquisa. Aos professores George Avelino, David Zylberzstajn, Cláudio Ferraz, Ricardo Ceneviva e Bernardo Mueller, que foram membros de minhas bancas de qualificação e defesa, agradeço por toda a colaboração, pelas críticas e pelas ideias, fundamentais para a evolução desta pesquisa. Aos meus amigos e companheiros de jornada Carla Soares, Deise Marques, Janaína Senra, Vera Regina Ramos Pinto e Gustavo Baracho, agradeço por todas as risadas, a colaboração, o apoio e por tornarem mais leve essa caminhada. Agradeço aos amigos Amanda Cristina Medeiros e Frederico Bertholini por se disporem sempre a me ajudar e ouvir, por lerem o que escrevo e muitas vezes me mostrarem como se faz. Outras pessoas que não poderiam faltar nesta lista de agradecimentos são Sérgio Ruy Barbosa Guerra Martins, Pablo Duarte Cardoso, Alberto Junqueira, Fernando Klautau, Francisco Caldas, Felipe Derbli, Marco Tulio Zanini, Diego Faveri, Rafael Goldszmidt, Monica Pinhanez, Celene Silva Melo e Adriana Carneiro – todos, em diferentes graus e modos, foram determinantes para o desenrolar desta empreitada. À minha Fabiana, agradeço por fazer a vida ter sentido, por todo o amor, a paciência, o suporte, por estar ao meu lado em todo esse tempo conturbado (em todos os tempos conturbados, aliás), por apoiar cada maluquice minha (e não são poucas) e por me dar tanta felicidade e mais uma alegria, na forma de uma vida que vem por aí. Agradeço à Isabela por alegrar a minha vida, por entender que eu precisava escrever em todos os finais de semana em que lhe privei de estar comigo, e por se dispor, com seus 7 anos de idade, a me ajudar a escrever esta tese, porque, como me disse, “eu posso te ajudar a pensar” e “eu sou muito boa em escrever histórias, papai…” TABLE OF CONTENTS List of tables ................................................................................................................ 9 List of figures ............................................................................................................ 10 Abstract ..................................................................................................................... 11 INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................... 13 CHAPTER I - Oil, political conflicts, and federations ............................................ 22 1.1. The other side of wealth: natural resources and the “resource curse” ............................. 22 1.2. Natural resources and political conflicts ........................................................................ 26 1.3. Oil, the main fuel to civil conflicts ................................................................................ 29 1.4. Federative countries and the peculiar impacts of oil exploitation ................................... 43 CHAPTER II - The federative experiences on oil.................................................... 51 2.1. The patterns of oil-related governmental revenues within a federation .......................... 51 2.2. Violent federative crises: the cases of Nigeria and Sudan .............................................. 59 2.2.1. Nigeria: the Biafran War, 1967-1970 ..................................................................... 59 2.2.2. Sudan: the Second Sudanese Civil War, 1983-2005 ............................................... 70 2.3. Non-violent federative conflicts: the Brazilian, Canadian, and Malaysian experiences... 78 2.3.1. Brazil: the 2012 attempts to change oil revenues’ regulations ................................. 78 2.3.2. Canada: the National Energy Program, 1980 .......................................................... 84 2.3.3. Malaysia: the Kelantan-federal clash on oil royalties .............................................. 95 2.4. Federative disputes on oil: Australia, India, Mexico, Russia, United States and Venezuela ......................................................................................................................................... 103 CHAPTER III - Concepts, Hypotheses and a Proposed Conceptual Framework 118 3.1. Oil-related federative conflicts as processes: origins, factors, and mechanisms ............ 118 3.2. “Windows of opportunities” and oil-related federative conflicts .................................. 124 3.3. The importance of mechanisms of inter-federative negotiation and bargain ................. 128 3.4. The role of fiscal compensations mechanisms among federative units ......................... 134 3.5. The political safeguards to federalism ......................................................................... 138 3.6. A framework of the historical process of federative conflicts on oil revenues .............. 149 CHAPTER IV - Methodology and research design ............................................... 152 4.1. Research design .......................................................................................................... 152 4.2. Case selection............................................................................................................. 159 4.3. Data collection and analysis........................................................................................ 160 CHAPTER V - Analysis of countries’ historical processes on oil-related federative conflicts .................................................................................................................... 162 5.1. A brief summary of the analyzed oil-related federative conflicts ................................. 163 5.2. Australia and USA: inter-federative negotiation as a tool for federative peace ............. 167 5.3. Countries with federative disputes: India, Mexico, Russia and Venezuela ................... 176 5.4. Countries with federative crisis ................................................................................... 186 5.4.1. Brazil .................................................................................................................. 186 5.4.2. Canada ................................................................................................................ 194 5.4.3. Malaysia .............................................................................................................. 202 5.5. Countries with violent federative crises....................................................................... 210 5.5.1. Nigeria ...............................................................................................................
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