Equity Research May 13th, 2019 Monthly Andean Strategy Update Envisioning a better second half in Chile In April, the Andean region performed below LatAm markets (+0.1% in USD CREDICORP CAPITAL RESEARCH terms), with Colombia, Chile and Peru posting negative performance (-2.3%, - 1.0% and -0.7% in USD terms, respectively). The Andean region performed poorly compared to other EM markets, including Asia, Brazil and Mexico. Daniel Velandia, CFA We are moving our position in Chile to an Overweight on the back of a +(571) 3394400 ext. 1505 more favorable balance of risks relative to Colombia and Peru, but
[email protected] earnings and macro dynamics have not changed. • Although we revised our 2019E GDP growth for Chile from 3.3% to 3.0%, Carolina Ratto we still expect it to grow above potential in 2H19. +(562) 2446 1768 • Market dynamics have not changed, with low activity from local and foreign
[email protected] investors. The market has suffered from some overhang due to two large capital market events: Enel Am’s capital raise and Cencosud’s real estate Tomás Sanhueza IPO. This will continue until June when both operations take place. +(562) 2446 1751 • Although the short term looks soft, we see a higher downside risk in Peru
[email protected] and profit-taking in Colombia, which sets a more enabling context for changing our position in Chile to an Overweight. In particular, we expect a Sebastián Gallego, CFA stronger 2H19 for Chile in earnings and macro figures. +(571) 3394400 ext. 1594 • Valuations are still discounted, even when stressing earnings growth of
[email protected] relevant sectors such as Pulp, Retail and Banks.