Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin
Volume 1: August 2008
Gloucestershire = 6,259 people 7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000 = 100 people 1000
0 People claiming Unemployment1 Benefit in August 2008
Produced by:
The Research Team (Economics) Chief Executive’s Support Unit Gloucestershire County Council September 2008 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008
SUMMARY
The claimant rate in Gloucestershire was 1.8% in August 2008. This was up 0.2% on the July 2008 figure and the third consecutive monthly increase. The rate is slightly above the South West average of 1.6%, but over half a percent lower than the UK average of 2.5%.
The claimant count in Gloucestershire in August 2008 rose by its fastest rate since December 1990. The amount of people claiming in August was 9.5% higher than the number in July 2008. The increase was 10% across the South West, and 6% for the UK.
The average growth in unemployment in Gloucestershire for the six months to August 2008 was 3.3%. This was slightly higher than the South West average of 2.5%, but twice that of the UK average of 1.5%.
Gloucestershire and district claimants Consecutive Claimant Count in % Change on Average % increase over Area months August 2008 July 2008 the last six months increasing Cheltenham 1,558 6.6 3.1 5 Cotswolds 464 17.8 3.8 2 Forest 886 10.1 2.3 4 Gloucester 1,810 7.4 3.8 5 Stroud 868 18.4 4.0 2 Tewkesbury 673 6.0 2.3 3 Gloucestershire 6,259 9.5 3.3 5 South West 48,017 10.1 2.5 3 UK 923,876 6.1 1.5 3
The claimant rate for August 2008 was up 0.2% for all the districts in Gloucestershire with the exception of Cheltenham, which increased by 0.1%, and Tewkesbury, which stayed at 1.4%.
• In Cheltenham Borough the claimant count has increased each month since April 2008. The higher counts occur in Hester’s Way, Oakley, St. Paul’s and St. Peter’s wards.
• In Cotswold District the claimant count in August 2008 was the highest for two years and has been increasing since July 2008. Watermoor, Fosseridge, Park, Chesterton, Northleach and Tetbury wards have claimant rates above the district average.
• In the Forest of Dean District the claimant count in August 2008 was the highest since April 2007 and has been increasing since May 2008. High rates are present in Cinderford West, Coleford Central, Cinderford East, Coleford East and Lydney East wards.
• In Gloucester City the claimant count in August 2008 was the highest for two years and has been increasing since April 2008. Higher rates are observed in Westgate, Podsmead, Barton & Tredworth, Matson & Robinswood, Kingsholm & Wotton and Moreland wards.
• In Stroud District the claimant count has been rising since June 2008. Minchinhampton ward had a 0.5% increase on the July 2008 claimant count, and was above the District average for the first time in nine months.
• Tewkesbury Borough had the smallest increase in claimant count in August 2008. Prior’s Park, Tewkesbury town with Mitton, Shurdington and Brockworth wards have all been above the Borough average for at least the last two years. Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Contents
Part 1: UK, South West and Gloucestershire Indicators...... 11 Claimant Rate ...... 1 Claimant Count ...... 1 Inflation ...... 3 Upward pressures on inflation ...... 3 Downward pressures on inflation...... 3 Part 2: Gloucestershire and Local Authority District analysis ...... 4 Claimant Rate and Claimant Count...... 4 Vacancies ...... 5 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis ...... 6 Cheltenham Borough ...... 6 Cheltenham Borough – Wards...... 7 Cotswold District ...... 8 Cotswold District – Wards...... 9 Forest of Dean District ...... 10 Forest of Dean District – Wards...... 11 Gloucester City ...... 12 Gloucester City – Wards ...... 13 Stroud District ...... 14 Stroud District – Wards ...... 15 Tewkesbury Borough ...... 16 Tewkesbury Borough - Wards...... 17
Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Part 1: UK, South West and Gloucestershire Indicators
Claimant Rate1
Figure 1 CLA IMA NT RA TE A CROSS GLOUCESTERSHIRE, THE SOUTH WEST A ND THE UK OVER THE PA ST YEA R Claimant Rate (%) 3.0
2.5
2.0 United Kingdom 1.5 South West
1.0 Gloucestershire
0.5
0.0 Aug Sep Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS)
Figure 1 shows the claimant rate for the UK, the South West, and Gloucestershire increasing for the third month running. The claimant rate for Gloucestershire was 1.8% in August 2008. This was up 0.2% on the July 2008 figure. The rate has remained slightly higher than the South West average over the past year, but persistently lower by approximately half a per cent against the UK average during the same period.
Claimant Count2
Table 1. Analysis of UK, South West and Gloucestershire Claimant Counts
Average % Claimant Count % change on Consecutive months Area increase over the in August 2008 July3 2008 increasing last six months4
UK 923,876 6.1 1.5 3 South West 48,017 10.1 2.5 3 Gloucestershire 6,259 9.5 3.3 5
Table 1 shows that In August 2008, the number of claimants in Gloucestershire was 9.5% higher than the number in July 2008. This is a significant increase, as similar rises were last seen during the recession of the early 1990’s. This is an indication that the current economic downturn has begun to affect the labour market in a comparable way to before. This is illustrated in Figure 2 (below).
1 The Claimant Rate is the amount of claimants as a percentage of the working age population for the claimant group.
2 JSA Claimant Count records the number of people claiming Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA) and National Insurance credits at Job Centre Plus Offices. This is not an official measure of unemployment, but is the only indicative statistical measure available for areas smaller than Local Authorities.
3 The difference between total claimants in August 2008 and July 2008 expressed as a percentage increase or decrease.
4 The average monthly rate at which the Claimant Count has been growing for the six months to August 2008
Page 1 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008
Figure 2 GLOUCESTERSHIRE CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH CHANGE SINCE AUGUST 1990 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Claimant rate % change 12.00% Dec 1990 – 10.5% Aug 1991 - 5.1% Aug 2008 – 9.5% 10.00% 8.00% Aug 1992 - 5.5% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% -10.00% -12.00% Aug Aug Aug Aug 1990 1991 1992 1993
The blue line represents the monthly change in the claimant count across Gloucestershire between August 1990 and August 1993. It is normal for the graph to show large spikes around temporary seasonal increases in January and July. The red line indicates the 9.5% rise between July 2008 and August 2008. Aside from the month of January (where claimants typically increase after the Christmas period), the number of people claiming benefits during August 2008 rose at the fastest level since the 10.5% increase of December 1990. August 2008 is also notable in that the rise was even higher than the increases observed in August 1991 and August 1992, when the economy was in recession. If the claimant level follows the trends of 1991, 1992 and 1993, the number of claimants is likely to increase in September.
Figure 3
Average growth in claimants for the six months to August 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Average % change 4.0%
3.5% 3.3
3.0% 2.5 2.5%
2.0% 1.5 1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% United Kingdom South West Gloucestershire
Figure 3 shows that the average growth in unemployment in Gloucestershire for the six months to August 2008 was 3.3%. This is slightly higher than the South West average, but twice that of the UK average. This compared unfavourably with figures for Gloucestershire for the six months to February 2008, where the average growth in unemployment was 0.2% and the six months to August 2007, where unemployment declined by minus 1.2%.
The effects of the current economic downturn may take time to be reflected in the claimant count, as reaction time will depend on the type and size of those businesses affected and the possible consequent need to reduce their workforce.
Page 2 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Inflation
Figure 4
INFLA TION OVER THE LA ST YEA R SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Annual Increase (%) 6
5
4
3
2
1
0 Aug Sep Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
CPI: consumer Price Index (excluding housing costs) RPI Retail Price Index (includes mortgage costs) RPIX: Retail Price Index (excludes mortgage costs) Government Target
Figure 4 shows the national level of inflation since August 2007. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI), which the Government use for their target measure, was 4.7 per cent in August 2008, up from 4.4 per cent in July 2008. The Retail Prices Index (RPI) was 4.8 per cent in August 2008, down from 5 per cent in July 2008. The Retail Prices Index excluding mortgage interest payments (RPIX) was 5.1 per cent in August 2008, down from 5.2 per cent in July 2008.
Upward pressures on inflation
• Housing and household services due to a rise in average gas and electricity bills; • Food and non-alcoholic beverages • Miscellaneous goods and services, particularly from mortgage arrangement fees, and products for personal care.
Downward pressures on inflation
• The price of heating oil. • Transport costs, mainly due to the fall in price of fuels and lubricants. • Communication where telephone charges were unchanged this year but rose a year ago.
Page 3 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Part 2: Gloucestershire and Local Authority District analysis
Claimant Rate and Claimant Count
Figure 5
CLAIMANT COUNT ACROSS GLOUCESTERSHIRE: AUGUST 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Claimant Rate (%) 3.0
2.5
2.0 Gloucestershire – 1.8%
1.5
1.0
0.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6
0.0
m a er sbury Stroud ke ucest Cotswold lo st of Dean G Tew e Cheltenh or F
The claimant rate for August 2008 was up 0.2% for all the districts in Gloucestershire with the exception of Cheltenham, which increased by 0.1%, and Tewkesbury, which remained at 1.4%. The present composition of claimants is roughly 75% male and 25% female, across the six districts, with the exception of the Forest of Dean, where the breakdown is 65% male and 35% female.
Figure 6
TOTA L CLA IMA NTS OVER THE PA ST TWO YEA RS A CROSS GLOUCESTERSHIRE DISTRICTS SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Number of Claimants 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 Cotswold 4,500 Tewkesbury 4,000 Stroud 3,500 3,000 Forest of Dean 2,500 2,000 Cheltenham 1,500 1,000 Gloucest er 500 0 Aug Sep Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
Table 2. Analysis of Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts Average % Claimant Count % Change on Consecutive months Area increase over the in August 2008 July 2008 increasing last six months Cheltenham 1,558 6.6 3.1 5 Cotswolds 464 17.8 3.8 2 Forest 886 10.1 2.3 4 Gloucester 1,810 7.4 3.8 5 Stroud 868 18.4 4.0 2 Tewkesbury 673 6.0 2.3 3 Gloucestershire 6,259 9.5 3.3 5
Page 4 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Table 2 shows the large increase in the claimant count in August 2008 compared with July 2008. In addition, August 2008 represented the single highest number of claimants in thirteen months in Cheltenham, the Cotswolds and the Forest of Dean; over eighteen months in Tewkesbury; and over two years in Gloucester.
Vacancies
Figure 7
VACANCIES IN GLOUCESTERSHIRE - AUGUST 2008 Elementary Occupations
Managers and Senior Process, Plant and Machine Officials Operatives
Sales and Customer Service occupations Professional Occupations
Associate Professional and Technical Occupations
Personal Service Occupations Administrative and Secretarial Occupations Skilled Trades Occupations SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS)
Figure 7 shows the breakdown of vacancy types advertised at local Job Centre Plus offices during August 2008. Not all vacancies are reported to Job Centre Plus. The chart shows that the largest proportion of vacancies occur in the Elementary occupations and Skilled Trades occupation sectors. There was less demand for Managers & Senior Officials, and other Professional occupations, which accounted for 4% and 2% respectively.
Page 5 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis
Cheltenham Borough
Figure 8
CHELTENHA M CLA IMA NTS - MONTH ON MONTH A ND Y EA R ON Y EA R CHA NGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Claimant rate % change
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
-30.0% Aug Sep Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
The claimant count in Cheltenham Borough was 1,558 people in August 2008. Figure 8 shows the claimant count increasing each month since April 2008. In addition, claimant counts have increased every month on the same month the previous year since July 2008.
Figure 9
CHELTENHA M CLA IMA NTS - QUA RTERLY CHA NGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) 3 month % change 15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0% 3 months to November 2007 3 months to February 2008 3 months to May 2008 3 months to August 2008
Figure 9 shows the percentage change quarter on quarter also reflects the increases in claimants. For the three months to August, the claimant count was three times that of the previous three month period.
Page 6 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Cheltenham Borough – Wards
Figure 10
CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS CHELTENHAM WARDS - AUGUST 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Claimant Rate (%) 8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0 Cheltenham – 2.2% 2.0
1.0
0.0 l y il e e n s s r ey ll ' l H ege lag an k Park r l il aul Way dow gb P akley ddings ittvi V s Peter' O s athe e P Col in ton Park on All Saints r St Mark's St Prestbu H d Lan St arl Warden Battledown Sp ester' Up Th e R H Ch Leckhampton Charlton Kings Swin
l and hal en B
Figure 10 shows the claimant rates for Cheltenham Borough wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the Borough, with nine wards above the average.
Table 3. Analysis of Claimant Count at Cheltenham Ward level – August 2008 Claimant County Rank bottom 10% of county District Ward Rate 1 = ‘best’ first quartile of county second quartile of county Cheltenham Prestbury 0.8 23 third quartile of county Cheltenham Park 0.9 33 fourth quartile of county highest 10% of county Cheltenham Charlton Park 1.0 42 Cheltenham Leckhampton 1.0 42 Cheltenham Up Hatherley 1.0 46
Benhall and Cheltenham 1.1 55 The Reddings Cheltenham Charlton Kings 1.1 55 Cheltenham Warden Hill 1.2 69 Cheltenham Battledown 1.5 85 Cheltenham Pittville 1.7 93 Cheltenham College 2.1 109 Cheltenham Swindon Village 2.2 116 Cheltenham Lansdown 2.7 122 Cheltenham All Saints 3.1 126 Cheltenham Springbank 3.1 126 Cheltenham St Mark's 3.2 128 Cheltenham St Peter's 3.3 129 Cheltenham St Paul's 3.5 131 Cheltenham Oakley 4.5 138 Cheltenham Hester's Way 5.0 140
Table 3 shows overall claimant counts for Cheltenham Borough wards, and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. There has been little change in the relative positions of these wards over the last two years, with high claimant rates observed in the same areas month by month. Hester’s Way, Oakley, St. Paul’s and St Peter’s have had claimant rates higher than the Borough average every month for at least the last two years. Springbank and St. Mark’s have also frequently had higher claimant rates than the Borough average for the last two years.
Page 7 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis
Cotswold District
Figure 11
COTSWOLDS CLA IMA NTS - MONTH ON MONTH A ND YEAR ON YEA R CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Claimant rate % change
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
-30.0% Aug Sep Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
The claimant count in Cotswold District was 464 people in August 2008, the highest for two years. This was a significant increase of 18% on the July 2008 total. Figure 11 shows that the claimant count has been increasing since July 2008. In addition, claimant counts have been higher compared to the same month the previous year since July 2008.
Figure 12
COTSWOLDS CLA IMA NTS - QUARTERLY CHA NGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) 3 month % change 15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0% 3 months to November 2007 3 months to February 2008 3 months to May 2008 3 months to August 2008
Figure 12 shows the percentage change quarter on quarter also reflects the increases in claimants. For the three months to August, the claimant count was three times that of the previous three month period.
Page 8 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Cotswold District – Wards
Figure 13
CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS COTSWOLDS WARDS - AUGUST 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Claimant Rate (%) 8.0
7.0 6.0 5.0
4.0 3.0 2.0 Cotswolds – 1.0% 1.0 0.0
g s s d n e n l sh n th n i er sh o el ge A eet ay er ley ow o m ord r d w or t r ad rf a pt each Valley s e iv -St E l moor d t R ock ng M r n Aveni en-Vale Fai - am ndyw eeches Tetbury r Bl d edw on B u bol versm c Lechl n H Sa orth Whi Ch Water Park a d N Fosseri Ch m Ri - Rissi Wate ru n Three Ampney-ColnBe Thames Hea or G o Camp eton-i er att or Cirencester Parkst M encester Str Kempsf nce Cir e irencester Chesterton Bourton-on -the-Wat C Cir
rencester Ci
Figure 13 shows the claimant rate for the wards in Cotswold District. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District. Ten wards are above the Cotswold District average.
Table 4. Analysis of Claimant Count at Cotswolds Ward level – August 2008 Claimant County Rank bottom 10% of county District Ward Rate 1 = ‘best’ first quartile of county second quartile of county Cotswolds Churn Valley 0.4 1 third quartile of county Cotswolds Grumbolds Ash 0.4 1 fourth quartile of county highest 10% of county Cotswolds Riversmeet 0.4 1 Cotswolds Avening 0.5 6 Table 4 shows overall Cotswolds Stratton-Whiteway 0.5 6 claimant counts for Cotswolds Three Rivers 0.6 8 Cotswold District wards, Cotswolds Blockley 0.7 16 and their position relative Cotswolds Campden-Vale 0.7 16 to all wards in Cotswolds Chedworth 0.7 16 Gloucestershire. Cotswolds Water Park 1 16 Cotswolds Ampney-Coln 0.8 23 Within the District, five Cotswolds Beacon-Stow 0.8 23 wards frequently have claimant rates above the Cotswolds Rissingtons 0.8 23 district average. These are Cotswolds Thames Head 0.8 23 Watermoor, Fosseridge, Cotswolds Ermin 0.9 33 Park, Chesterton, Cotswolds Kempsford Lechlade 0.9 33 Northleach and Tetbury. Cotswolds Bourton-on-the-Water 1.0 42 Cotswolds Fairford 1.0 42 However, over the past six Cotswolds Moreton-in-Marsh 1.0 42 months a number of other Cotswolds Hampton 1.1 55 wards have started to Cotswolds Sandywell 1.1 55 experience higher claimant Cotswolds Cirencester Beeches 1.2 69 rates. The most notable of Cotswolds Northleach 1.2 69 these are Ampney-Coln, Cotswolds Tetbury 1.3 80 Beacon-Stow, and Cotswolds Cirencester Chesterton 1.4 81 Hampton Cotswolds Cirencester Park 1.4 81 Cotswolds Fosseridge 1.4 81 Cotswolds Cirencester Watermoor 2.4 119
Page 9 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis
Forest of Dean District
Figure 14
FOREST OF DEAN CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Claimant rate % change
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
-30.0% Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
The claimant count in the Forest of Dean District was 886 people for August 2008, the highest amount since April 2007. Figure 14 shows that monthly claimant counts have been increasing since May 2008, and that the claimant count compared to the same month the previous year has been higher since June 2008.
Figure 15
FOREST OF DEAN CLAIMANTS - QUARTERLY CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) 3 month % change 15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0% 3 months to November 2007 3 months to February 2008 3 months to May 2008 3 months to August 2008
Figure 15 shows the percentage change quarter on quarter also reflects the increase in claimants. For the three months to August, the claimant count was six times that of the previous three month period.
Page 10 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Forest of Dean District – Wards
Figure 16
CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS FOREST OF DEAN WARDS - AUGUST 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Claimant Rate (%) 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 Forest of Dean – 1.8% 2.0 1.0 0.0 l n l ls ill e ey m o al re n ley on a w a H est pury East e y eam ook East East ar h ast lowe cknor iave A r r W untl il B b art denh P Bi Br est ... Centr uspidg H H Dymock t Berr ord ord edm Tibbertd Ti h W n R Dry ef f R Nort Wool s St and nt Lydney andL on gh ope nd Lydney North and Col der and Engli n m a Newe Cinderford East ColefordCi Central on ewe d on and d N t s cha el and dean and d fi and l ur e dean lai s h b B hur c C Lydbrook and Ruard mesberrow anNewnham and Westbury ur New Littl itchel o h n, Ayl Hewel o M Br nhall an stc e ri Ox Ch lvingt A
Figure 16 shows the claimant rate for Forest of Dean District wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District, and nine wards are above this average
Table 5. Analysis of Claimant Count at Forest of Dean Ward level – August 2008 Claimant County Rank bottom 10% of county District Ward Rate 1 = ‘best’ first quartile of county second quartile of county Forest Blaisdon and Longhope 0.4 1 third quartile of county Forest Hartpury 0.4 1 fourth quartile of county highest 10% of county Forest Redmarley 0.6 8 Forest Churcham and Huntley 0.7 16 Table 5 shows overall Forest Tibberton 0.7 16 claimant counts for the Forest Bromesberrow and Dymock 0.9 33 Forest of Dean District Forest Tidenham 0.9 33 wards, and their position Forest Newnham and Westbury 1.0 42 relative to all wards in Forest Oxenhall and Newent 1.1 55 Gloucestershire. Forest Hewelsfield and Woolaston 1.2 69 Forest Pillowell 1.5 85 Higher rates have been Forest Christchurch, English Bicknor 1.6 90 continually present in Forest Newland and St Briavels 1.6 87 Cinderford West, Coleford Forest Alvington, Aylburton, West Lydney 1.7 93 Central, Cinderford East, Forest Lydney North 1.7 93 Coleford East and Lydney Forest Newent Central 1.7 93 East for the past two years.
Forest Awre 1.8 93 Christchurch & English Forest Lydbrook and Ruardean 1.8 98 Bicknoor and Lydbrook & Forest Berry Hill 1.9 102 Ruardean have frequently Forest Bream 2.0 105 been above the District Forest Littledean and Ruspidge 2.0 105 average over the past six Forest Mitcheldean and Drybrook 2.1 109 months, having been below Forest Cinderford East 2.4 119 it for the previous eighteen Forest Coleford East 2.7 122 months. Mitcheldean & Forest Lydney East 2.9 124 Drybrook has been higher Forest Coleford Central 3.4 130 than average for the past Forest Cinderford West 3.6 132 two months, something that has not occurred in the previous year.
Page 11 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis
Gloucester City
Figure 17
GLOUCESTER CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Claimant rate % change
25.0% 20.0%
15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%
-5.0% -10.0%
-15.0% -20.0%
-25.0% -30.0% Aug Sep Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
Gloucester City’s claimant count was 1,810 people in August 2008, the highest for two years. Figure 17 shows the claimant count increasing since April 2008. In addition, claimant counts have been up every month on the same month the previous year since May 2008.
Figure 18. Trends in Gloucester City’s Claimant Count
GLOUCESTER CLAIMANTS - QUARTERLY CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) 3 month % change 15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0% 3 months to November 2007 3 months to February 2008 3 months to May 2008 3 months to August 2008
Figure 18 shows the percentage change quarter on quarter also reflects the increases in claimants. For the three months to August, the claimant count was three times that of the previous three month period.
Page 12 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Gloucester City – Wards
Figure 19
CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS GLOUCESTER WARDS - AUGUST 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Claimant Rate (%) 8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0 Gloucester – 2.6%
2.0
1.0
0.0
s e e d y d n ge n ey t le g rt n d e b o a n u le a to rth b c V ff l o A le ra co u re rn G ld T lmbri cc e inswood edw E onglev u Fie Barnwoo Mo b r Westgate L H ev o T Podsmead y d R n y S ele a g nd olm and Wot ele a h n g ed o d on rt Qu a ts B Que Kings Ma
Figure 19 shows the claimant rate for Gloucester City wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the City and nine of the wards are above the City average.
Table 6. Analysis of Claimant Count at Gloucester City Ward level – August 2008 Claimant County Rank bottom 10% of county District Ward first quartile of county Rate 1 = ‘best’ second quartile of county Gloucester Elmbridge 1.1 55 third quartile of county Gloucester Longlevens 1.1 55 fourth quartile of county highest 10% of county Gloucester Abbey 1.1 55 Gloucester Hucclecote 1.2 69 Gloucester Quedgeley Severn Vale 1.2 69 Gloucester Grange 1.5 85 Gloucester Quedgeley Fieldcourt 1.9 102 Gloucester Barnwood 2.2 116 Gloucester Tuffley 2.4 119 Gloucester Moreland 3.8 134 Gloucester Matson and Robinswood 4.0 135 Gloucester Kingsholm and Wotton 4.1 136 Gloucester Barton and Tredworth 4. 139 Gloucester Podsmead 5.4 141 Gloucester Westgate 7.0 142
Table 3 shows overall claimant counts for Gloucester City wards, and their position relative to all wards across Gloucestershire. There has been little change in the relative positions of these wards over the last two years, with high claimant rates observed in the same areas month by month. Of these areas; Westgate, Podsmead, Barton & Tredworth, Matson & Robinswood, Kingsholm & Wotton and Moreland have had claimant rates higher than the average for Gloucester City every month for at least the last two years. Tuffley has not been far behind. In addition the Quedgeley Fieldcourt ward has seen claimants steadily increasing at a rate of 0.1% over the last six months a number of wards had half a per cent increases in claimants on the July 2008 figure. These were Podsmead, Moreland, Barton & Tredworth and Kingsholm & Wotton. The only wards that did not have an increase were Matson and Robinswood and Westgate – the latter of which decreased by 0.1%.
Page 13 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis
Stroud District
Figure 20
STROUD CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Claimant rate % change
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
-30.0% Aug Sep Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
The claimant count in Stroud District was 868 people in August 2008. Figure 20 shows claimant counts rising since June 2008. In addition, figure 20 also shows that when compared to the same month one year previous, claimant counts have been up since July 2008.
Figure 21
STROUD CLAIMANTS - QUARTERLY CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) 3 month % change 15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0% 3 months to November 2007 3 months to February 2008 3 months to May 2008 3 months to August 2008
Figure 21 shows the percentage change quarter on quarter also reflects the increases in claimants. For the three months to August, the claimant count was up on the previous quarter – itself down on the three months to February 2008.
Page 14 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Stroud District – Wards
Figure 22 CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS STROUD WARDS - AUGUST 2008 Claimant Rate (%) SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) 8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0 Stroud – 1.3% 1.0
0.0 d l p e d n s h a p ley ick g ys ity ss u oo er e nd icke nhill o r U lfor v ough Vale pton in a ntr Bisley h d sw sw a nl r keley la house scr Valley Slade e T in g h Se a am Tr e C n C t er Up Dursley in a am Eastt S am West B Pag a y a P Kin C e C t LeonardsNailsworth Hardw d C le -under-Ed Over Stroudh Rodbo S Ston a n Woodchester T an o d on ll C tto pt Minchinh o an U gton and Standis mhi W y in r st Fa a E Amberle
Figure 22 shows the claimant rates in Stroud District wards. Ten wards exceed this district average.
Table 7. Analysis of Claimant Count at Stroud District Ward level – August 2008 Claimant County Rank bottom 10% of county District Ward Rate 1 = ‘best’ first quartile of county second quartile of county Stroud Bisley 0.6 8 third quartile of county fourth quartile of county Stroud Thrupp 0.6 8 highest 10% of county Stroud Coaley and Uley 0.8 23 Stroud Painswick 0.8 23 Table 7 shows overall claimant counts for Stroud Stroud Kingswood 0.8 23 District wards, and their Stroud Wotton-under-Edge 0.9 33 position relative to all Stroud Amberley and Woodchester 0.9 33 wards in Gloucestershire. Stroud Chalford 1.0 42 Stroud Severn 1.0 42 Cainscross, Dursley, Stroud Cam East 1.0 42 Valley, Slade and Central Stroud Over Stroud 1.0 42 wards have all been above Stroud The Stanleys 1.0 42 the district average for at Stroud Cam West 1.0 42 least the last two years. Stroud Rodborough 1.1 55 Hardwicke has started to Stroud Vale 1.1 55 experience higher rates of Stroud Berkeley 1.1 55 claimants, and has been Stroud Uplands 1.2 69 above the District average Stroud Upton St Leonards 1.2 69 for the fourth month Stroud Nailsworth 1.2 69 running, having spent the Stroud Eastington and Standish 1.2 69 previous 18 months below.
Stroud Hardwicke 1.4 81 It is also worth noting that Stroud Minchinhampton 1.5 85 Minchinhampton had a Stroud Trinity 1.8 98 0.5% increase on the July Stroud Stonehouse 1.8 98 claimant count, and was Stroud Dursley 1.9 102 above the District average Stroud Farmhill and Paganhill 2.1 109 for the first time in nine Stroud Cainscross 2.1 109 months Stroud Valley 2.3 118 Stroud Slade 3.0 125 Stroud Central 3.7 133
Page 15 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Part 3: Gloucestershire Local Authority District and Ward analysis
Tewkesbury Borough
Figure 23
TEWKESBURY CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Claimant rate % change 20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
-30.0% Aug Sep Oct No v Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
The claimant count in Tewkesbury Borough was 673 people in August 2008. The monthly rise has been consistent since June 2008. Claimant counts have been up every month compared to the same month the previous year since June 2008. The unusual spike during April 2008 was caused by greater levels of claimants in the Innsworth with Down Hatherley, Ashton with Walton Cardiff, and Brockworth wards, than there had been the previous year.
Figure 24
TEWKSBURY CLAIMANTS - QUARTERLY CHANGE SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS)
3 month % change 15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0% 3 months to November 2007 3 months to February 2008 3 months to May 2008 3 months to August 2008
Figure 24 also reflects the increase in claimants over the last three quarters to August 2008.
Page 16 Gloucestershire Unemployment Bulletin Volume 1: August 2008 Tewkesbury Borough - Wards
Figure 25
CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS TEWKESBURY WARDS - AUGUST 2008 SOURCE: ONS CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED (NOMIS) Claimant Rate (%) 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0
4.0 3.0 2.0 Tewkesbury – 1.4% 1.0 0.0 l l e ill n il l d ff el th ay th H w H est Hi idge n's cot to e r or or Park e W v B hw oh ngton l Cardi ch ael's 's ew ee w Twyning ort i Grange ucc N a IsbourneBrookfi N ith Mittonior H xenton Cl adgew r O y Coombe n B Brockw Cleeve Winchcombe wn Hatherley Shurdi n w P ur w o Cleeve Tow kesb Cleeve St M Tew Churchdown St J Churchdo Tewkesbury Highnam with H kesbury worth with D shchurch with Walton s ew A T Inn
Figure 25 shows the claimant rate for Tewkesbury Borough wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the Borough and nine of the wards are above the Borough average.
Table 8. Analysis of Claimant Count at Tewkesbury Borough Ward level – August 2008 Claimant County Rank bottom 10% of county District Ward Rate 1 = ‘best’ first quartile of county second quartile of county Tewkesbury Hucclecote 0.6 8 third quartile of county fourth quartile of county Tewkesbury Oxenton Hill 0.6 8 highest 10% of county Tewkesbury 8 Tewkesbury 0.6 Newtown Table 8 shows overall Tewkesbury Coombe Hill 0.6 8 claimant counts for Tewkesbury Cleeve West 0.7 16 Tewkesbury Borough wards, and their position Tewkesbury Cleeve Hill 0.8 23 relative to all wards in the Highnam with Tewkesbury 0.8 23 Haw Bridge County. Tewkesbury Isbourne 0.9 33 Tewkesbury Churchdown Brookfield 0.9 33 There are a number of wards, which have higher Tewkesbury Badgeworth 1.1 55 levels of claimants within Tewkesbury Twyning 1.1 55 Tewkesbury Borough Ashchurch with Tewkesbury 1.1 55 Walton Cardiff month on month. In Tewkesbury Winchcombe 1.2 69 particular, Prior’s Park, Tewkesbury town with Tewkesbury Northway 1.5 85 Mitton, Shurdington and Innsworth with Tewkesbury 1.6 90 Down Hatherley Brockworth wards have all Tewkesbury Churchdown St John's 1.7 93 been above the Borough Tewkesbury Brockworth 2.0 105 average for at least the last two years. Tewkesbury Cleeve St Michael's 2.0 105
Tewkesbury Cleeve Grange 2.1 109 In addition Cleeve Grange Tewkesbury Shurdington 2.1 109 and Ashchurch with Down Tewkesbury Town Tewkesbury 2.1 109 Hatherley have both been with Mitton above the Borough Tewkesbury Tewkesbury Prior's Park 4.1 136 average for nine of the past twelve months
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