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How Third Party Reviews Affect Firm Value an Event Study in the Video Game Industry

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How Third Party Reviews Affect Firm Value an Event Study in the Video Game Industry Kim Andreas Hermansen & Jarl Romeo Bratli ________________________________ How third party reviews affect firm value An event study in the video game industry Masteroppgave i økonomi og administrasjon Handelshøyskolen ved HiOA Abstract The purpose of this thesis is to examine the relationship between third party reviews and firm value in the video game industry. This topic has been debated in the media, but no previous research has examined the relationship. Our study aims to fill this gap in research. We find that third party reviews affect firm value. This effect is limited to good reviews, while bad reviews do not affect firm value alone. We also find that investors do not react on a single important review, but rather wait until more information is available. Our study also shows that anticipation, for a video game, plays a big part in the effect third party reviews has on firm value. Higher anticipation for a video game increases the impact third party reviews has on firm value. Our findings can improve further research that examines the effect of third party reviews on other economic variables, like revenue. Sammendrag Formålet med denne studien er å undersøke forholdet mellom tredjeparts anmeldelser og firmaverdi i spillindustrien. Forholdet har blitt debattert i media, men det har ikke blitt forsket på tidligere. Vår studie prøver å bidra til dette forskningstemaet. Vi finner at tredjeparts anmeldelser påvirker firmaverdi. Denne effekten er avgrenset til gode anmeldelser, mens dårlige anmeldelser ikke påvirker firmaverdi alene. Vi finner også at investorer ikke reagerer på én viktig anmeldelse, men heller venter til mer informasjon er tilgjengelig. Vår studie viser også at forventning, til et spill, har stor betydning for effekten en tredjeparts anmeldelse har på firmaverdi. Høyere forventing øker effekten av en tredjeparts anmeldelse på firmaverdi. Våre funn kan forbedre fremtidig forskning som undersøker effekten av tredjeparts anmeldelser på andre økonomiske variabler, som inntekter. Handelshøyskolen ved HiOA Oslo 2016 II Preface Our Master thesis marks the end of our financial studies in Business Administration, at Oslo Business School. It has been a challenging and rewarding process. Funcom, Norway’s largest video game publisher, has experienced some gigantic fluctuations in firm value over the years. In some cases have Funcom blamed third party reviews for the stock markets reaction. We found it very interesting that investors perhaps used the same third party reviews to evaluate stocks, which we used to choose video games. After some early examinations we found that the impact of third party reviews was an interesting and challenging theme for our thesis. The phenomenon was a popular topic in the media, and among industry managers and investors. There was also very little research on the subject. Collecting data has been a very challenging part of the process. All data had to be collected manually, and we needed more data than we first expected. The exploratory nature of the thesis was also demanding, as there was very few that had examined video games before us. We would like to thank our supervisor Helge Nordahl, for guiding us through the process and for great insight in the field of finance. We would also like to thank Stian Danielsen, editor at IGN Norway, for help in finding data sources. III Table of contents 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Research problem and hypotheses ................................................................................ 3 2 Theory ................................................................................................................................. 6 2.1 The Efficient Market Hypothesis .................................................................................. 6 2.2 EMH issues and anomalies ........................................................................................... 8 2.2.1 Other anomalies ...................................................................................................... 9 2.3 EMH and event studies ............................................................................................... 10 3 Previous research ............................................................................................................. 11 3.1 Third party reviews ..................................................................................................... 11 3.1.1 Third party reviews and sales ............................................................................... 11 3.1.2 Investor behavior and prediction .......................................................................... 13 3.1.3 Third party reviews and firm value ...................................................................... 14 3.2 Consumer reviews and other forms of information .................................................... 15 4 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 16 4.1 Event studies ............................................................................................................... 16 4.2 Event study timeline .................................................................................................... 16 4.3 Event and estimation window ..................................................................................... 17 4.4 Abnormal return .......................................................................................................... 17 4.4.1 Constant mean return model ................................................................................ 17 4.4.2 Market model ....................................................................................................... 18 4.5 Aggregating the abnormal returns ............................................................................... 19 4.6 Statistical properties of Abnormal Return ................................................................... 19 4.6.1 The difference between categories ....................................................................... 20 4.7 Cross sectional regression ........................................................................................... 21 5 Data .................................................................................................................................... 22 5.1 Publishers and stock returns ........................................................................................ 23 5.2 Video game sample ..................................................................................................... 24 5.2.1 No Metacritic score .............................................................................................. 25 5.2.2 Handheld video games ......................................................................................... 25 5.2.3 Digital releases ..................................................................................................... 26 5.2.4 Re-releases ........................................................................................................... 26 5.2.5 Merging platforms ................................................................................................ 27 5.2.6 No news coverage ................................................................................................ 27 5.2.7 Limited stock data ................................................................................................ 28 5.3 News category type ..................................................................................................... 28 5.4 Video games summary ................................................................................................ 30 5.5 Third party reviews ..................................................................................................... 30 5.6 Event study modeling .................................................................................................. 32 5.6.1 Event window for reception of a video game ...................................................... 32 5.6.2 Event window for first important review ............................................................. 34 5.6.3 Estimation window ............................................................................................... 34 5.6.4 Abnormal return model ........................................................................................ 35 5.6.5 Anticipation for a video game .............................................................................. 35 5.6.6 Clustering and modeling for reception of video games ....................................... 36 5.6.7 Clustering and modeling for first important review ............................................. 37 5.7 Cross-sectional regression ........................................................................................... 39 IV 6 Empirical results .............................................................................................................. 41 6.1 Event study on video game release day reception ....................................................... 41 6.2 Event study on first important review ......................................................................... 47 6.3 Cross-sectional regression ........................................................................................... 49 6.4 Robustness checks ......................................................................................................
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