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Titan Company Mix Q4, Long Term Growth Levers Intact Titan Company Mix Q4, long term growth levers intact Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Consumer Discretionary Sharekhan code: TITAN Result Update Update Stock 3R MATRIX + = - Summary Titan Company Limited’s (Titan) Q4FY2021 was mix with OPM was lower than our as well street Right Sector (RS) ü expectation to 10.9% due drop in margins of Jewellery and watches businesses; revenue grew by strong 60% to Rs. 7,494 crore boosted by strong double digit growth in Jewellery business. Q4 was a strong quarter for jewellery sales (excluding Bullion sales), which grew by 70% because of Right Quality (RQ) ü pick-up in demand due to a decline in gold prices and higher billing value. Margins of the business were affected by lower studded ratio, higher sales of coins, and loss from custom duty cut on gold. Right Valuation (RV) ü Good growth momentum in jewellery business sustained in April. However, localised lockdown due to rise in COVID-19 cases resulted in 50% store closure. The demand environment looks uncertain in the near term. Pent-up demand (especially in the wedding category) and market share gains from smaller + Positive = Neutral - Negative players would help in posting faster recovery. We have reduced our earnings estimates for FY2022 to factor in lower sales in H1FY2022; broadly What has changed in 3R MATRIX maintaining it for FY2023. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a PT of Rs. 1,710. Old New For Q4FY2021, Titan Company Limited (Titan) posted a mix performance. Performance was strong on the revenue front but disappointing on the margins front. As stated in the pre-quarterly update, the company RS delivered robust sales growth of 60% with strong growth of 70% in the jewellery business. Consolidated OPM declined by 210 bps y-o-y to 10.9% mainly on account of lower gross margins in both jewellery and watches business. Thus, operating profit grew by just 33.4% less than revenue growth during the RQ quarter. Titan’s jewellery business retained its strong growth momentum because of market share gains and a sharp decline in gold prices, boosting high gold demand during the quarter. This resulted in robust growth of ~70% in the jewellery business (also aided by low base of Q4FY2020). Combined RV months of January-February 2021 registered revenue growth of 32% y-o-y. Ticket size has normalised compared to initial period of last year after the lockdown and it has improved on a y-o-y basis. Further, footfalls have seen strong recovery with robust double-digit growth during the quarter. Q4 also had a Reco/View Change large B2B order in the quarter, contributing to about 10% of the quarter’s revenue growth. Margins of the jewellery business were lower on a y-o-y basis due to reduction in customs duty on gold in February, Reco: Buy lower studded ratio, and higher contribution from low-margin coin sales. Region-wise demand was strong in east India, followed by South India, while west India is yet to get back to pre-COVID levels due to CMP: Rs. 1,506 underperformance of Maharashtra. Tier 2-3 towns continued to lead the growth compared to metros/ cities. Watches business, which saw recovery to 90% in January-February 2021, has registered flat sales for the quarter. On the other hand, eyewear business registered 20% growth (with the first two months Price Target: Rs. 1,710 registering 4% growth). April started on a good note with the first 15-20 days seeing good demand for wedding jewellery. However, with rise in COVID-19 cases and consequential localised lockdown by á Upgrade Maintain â Downgrade various state governments, around 50% of Titan’s jewellery stores closed operations. Considering the strong pent-up demand in the jewellery business after the first wave of COVID-19 surge, management is confident of recovery in sales once COVID-19 situation eases down in the coming months. Higher demand Company details for wedding jewellery due to a delayed wedding season, market share from small jewellers, and adding more store in the tier-2 and tier-3 towns would help the jewellery business achieve double-digit growth in Market cap: Rs. 133,701 cr the medium to long term. Other businesses, such as watches, are expected to recover post improvement in the discretionary environment. Jewellery business margins are expected to improve in the coming years 52-week high/low: Rs. 1621/810 due to better revenue mix and higher billing value. Better operating leverage would help watches margins to improve in the coming years. NSE volume: 23.3 lakh (No of shares) Key positives Jewellery retail sales grew by 32% in January-February on a comparable basis, led by strong BSE code: 500114 improvement in footfalls and bill value. Cash on books improved to Rs. 3,000 crore because of better working capital management. NSE code: TITAN Caratlane registered yet another quarter of strong revenue growth of 59%, with strong improvement in profitability. Free float: 41.8 cr (No of shares) Key negatives Gross margins decreased by 832 bps due unfavourable mix in the jewellery and watches business. Shareholding (%) TEAL’s (subsidiary of Titan) revenue decreased by 25% as the aerospace business continues to face headwinds in the industry. Promoters 52.9 Our Call View - Retain Buy with an unchanged PT of Rs. 1,710: We have reduced our earnings estimates for FY2022 FII 18.1 to factor in lower sales in H1FY2022, broadly maintaining it for FY2023. We expect strong recovery in the business performance of Titan post the easing of COVID-19 uncertainties due to market share gains and pent-up demand (largely in the wedding jewellery segment). Balance sheet strength will help it to compete DII 11.1 well with strong regional and large players in the domestic market. The stock is currently trading at 53x its FY2023E earnings. Strong brand recognition in the jewellery space, balance sheet strength, and good return Others 17.9 ratios make it one of the better plays in the retail space. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with an unchanged price target (PT) of Rs. 1,710. Price chart Key Risks 1700 Any disruption in the recovery of the jewellery business due to spike in COVID-19 cases in various states 1500 would act as a key risk to earnings estimates. 1300 Valuation (consolidated) Rs cr 1100 Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E 900 Revenue 19,779 21,052 21,644 24,995 30,545 700 OPM (%) 11.0 11.8 8.0 11.2 12.8 20 20 20 21 - - - - Adjusted PAT 1,519 1,519 984 1,708 2,505 Apr Apr Dec Aug % Y-o-Y growth 35.1 0.0 -35.2 73.6 46.6 Price performance Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 17.1 17.0 11.0 19.2 28.2 (%) 1m 3m 6m 12m P/E (x) 88.3 88.5 137.3 78.3 53.4 P/B (x) 22.0 20.0 17.8 15.4 12.5 Absolute -3.0 6.0 29.3 62.8 EV/EBIDTA (x) 61.2 54.4 78.2 48.1 34.2 Relative to -2.3 -0.2 4.6 7.8 RoNW (%) 27.2 23.8 13.8 21.1 25.9 Sensex RoCE (%) 37.2 30.6 17.2 27.0 34.4 Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates April 29, 2021 16 Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Update Stock Consolidated revenue up ~60%; OPM at 10.9%: Consolidated revenue grew by 59.1% y-o-y to Rs. 7,494 crore, driven by 70% growth in the jewellery business (excluding bullion sales). Gross margin declined by 832 bps to 22.1% due to unfavourable revenue mix in the jewellery and watches segment. OPM declined by 210 bps to 10.9%, in line with our expectation of 11.2%. Operating profit grew by 33.4% to Rs. 817 crore. Higher other income, lower depreciation charges, and lower incidence of tax led to 65.7% growth in reported PAT. Jewellery business – Strong growth momentum sustained in Q4 The jewellery business’ revenue grew by 71% to Rs. 6,422 crore because of market share gains and a sharp decline in gold prices, boosting high gold demand during the quarter. Growth is driven by double-digit growth in both the number of buyers (invoices) and average ticket size, compared to last year. Underlying retail growth stood at 32% in the first two months of the quarter. The studded category also had healthy growth, however the plain segment and coins saw much better growth, leading to studded mix being at only 30% in Q4FY2021 compared to 37% in Q4FY2020. Gold coins contributed 5% to revenue in Q4FY2021 compared to 3% in the previous year. Excluding bullion sales, studded mix stood at 27% in FY2021 compared to 32% in FY2020. EBIT margin was impacted by lower studded mix, loss from custom duty cut on gold, lower margin on B2B sale, and higher coin sales. Watches – Revenue stood flat on a low base Watches business registered flat revenue of Rs. 555 crore in the quarter. Recovery in the comparable two months of January and February was at ~90%. Margins were muted as gross margins were lower due to higher sale of lower- margin products, particularly wearables. EBIT of the watches business was down 36% y-o-y. The E-commerce channel continues to have higher salience, with all other channels also making good progress. Metros and mall stores have seen better recovery during the quarter compared to last quarter.
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