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What Future for Niagara Falls?

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What Future for Niagara Falls? SHAILER S. PHILBRICK Department of Geological Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14850 What Future for Niagara Falls? ABSTRACT Horseshoes and may be so slow in recession proposed increased diversion of water from as to be a quasi-stationary falls, without the falls for production of hydroelectric The recession of Niagara Falls up the immediate change in the level of Lake Erie. power on both the American and Canadian thalweg of Niagara River will be marked by sides of the river required a series of five major events. Event No. 1: The INTRODUCTION engineering studies of the falls, the Niagara Horseshoe Falls will first lower the level of The concept of retreat of Niagara Falls River, and the water yield of the Upper the Chippawa-Grass Island Pool below the from somewhere near the old landing in the Great Lakes. The latter confirmed one of the bottom of the American Channel and Niagara River at the foot of the Niagara fundamental facts of the Niagara River: its unwater the American Falls. The level of Escarpment near Queenston, Ontario, to flow is nearly uniform because of the great Lake Erie may be lowered a few feet at this about its present location was held by some headwater storage capacity of the upper time. The falls will split into two Horseshoes people 186 yr ago. Capt. Enys (1886, p. lakes. Detailed surveys, hydraulic-model at Navy Island, and the Lockport Gorge, the ccxxxii), a Canadian of the 29th Regiment, studies, plans for the preservation and extension of the Upper Great Gorge in wrote, under the date of July 19, 1787, enhancement of Niagara Falls, and interna- the Lockport Dolomite, will fork into two "Among those who favor this opinion is a tional agreement on the quantities of water gorges; the right hand one in the Tona- Mr. Hamilton, a merchant at Niagara and a that might be diverted for power production wanda Channel carrying 70 percent of the man of very good understanding..." Are we resulted from these studies. These were flow of the river and the left one in the better prepared today to interpret the implemented by construction of regulatory Chippawa Channel carrying 30 percent. The recession of Niagara Falls than was Lyell and diversionary structures and rate of erosion of the Lockport Gorge will who in 1830 wrote from England that the modifications to the crest of the Horseshoe vary with the configuration of the Horse- probable rate of retreat was about 50 yds in Falls. Much additional data bearing on the shoe, faster during notch shape and slower 40 yr and that the falls would eventually purpose of this paper resulted from during arch shape, with shallow and deep reach Lake Erie in —30,000 yr? Feather- extensive geologic and subsurface investiga- plunge pools, respectively, as the Upper stonehaugh (1831, p. 21) made a classic tions for gas, oil, salt, groundwater, and Great Gorge has eroded. Event No. 2: The statement on this subject a year later. "If I highway and river transportation in the Horseshoe in the Tonawanda Channel will have not misconceived the operation of this Niagara peninsula. These data are the split into two waterfalls at the upper end of river (Niagara), it will now be seen that the foundation for Figures 1 and 2. The sources Navy Island and for a short period there will elements of this problem are too compli- of these data are listed in Appendix 1. be three Horseshoe waterfalls until the left cated and vague to offer any hopes of a one in the Chippawa Channel, due to its satisfactory solution." Although the infor- NIAGARA FALLS—PAST faster erosion in the softer rocks of the Salina mation developed in the succeeding 142 yr To project the action of Niagara Falls into Group, intercepts the flow on the right side has weakened that statement, its general the future, we must know how and at what of Navy Island. This event will leave the import has not been erased. We have a better relative rates the falls eroded its present right Horseshoe as a dry falls. Event No. 3: basis for interpreting the mechanics of canyon in the Lockport Dolomite, the Upper The Chippawa Horseshoe will decline in erosion of the falls and their recession, but Great Gorge with its Maid-of-the-Mist Pool. height as the Lockport Dolomite dips we cannot estimate the time required for the We must examine the rate of erosion and the upstream to the south until, at a retreat of the Horseshoe Falls to somewhere mechanics of erosion simultaneously, be- height of ~50 ft, it will no longer have the near the head of the Niagara River much cause the mechanics of erosion affect the capability of recession and will remain as a more accurately than could Lyell. rate of erosion. Then we shall consider the quasi-stationary waterfall. Event No. 4: The This discussion of the future of Niagara general rate of recession from the head of the Salina Group will erode to a broad, gentler Falls is a speculation controlled by several Whirlpool Rapids upstream through the sloped gorge in the bottom of which the factors: (1) our knowledge of the action of Upper Great Gorge to the Horseshoe Falls. steep-sided Lockport Gorge will be eroded the Horseshoe and American Falls in the as far upstream as the quasi-stationary Upper Great Gorge during the past 4,000 or Mechanics and Rates of Erosion waterfalls. The rapid erosion to form 5,000 yr; (2) our knowledge of the geology The most stimulating information on the stepped rapids in the Salina Gorge will lead of the Niagara region, particularly the recent past of Niagara Falls is the it upstream to intercept the water in the underlying bedrock; (3) our knowledge of river-bottom map of the Maid-of-the-Mist Tonawanada Channel and divert it into the the hydraulics of the Niagara River; and (4) Pool (1969, produced by Ontario Hydro for Chippawa Channel. Event No. 5: This will our understanding of man's necessities. the Inland Waters Branch of the Department result in the unwatering of the Tonawanda The investigations of the Niagara River of Energy, Mines and Resources of Canada). Channel and the creation of another dry from Lake Ontario upstream to the falls A profile of the thalweg constructed from falls. Near the head of the river beneath the continued through the nineteenth century this map is shown on the right side of Figure Salina Group, the more resistant Bertie and into the early part of this century. They 2. The river bottom is extremely irregular Dolomite and its underlying Onondaga were capped by the magnificent exploratory with numerous deeps and alternating highs. Limestone will be encountered into which and analytical work of Spencer (1907). Each deep represents the location of an the Bertie-Onondaga Gorge will be cut with Gilbert also published his own study of the ancient plunge pool that formed when the a much slower rate of recession by a new rate of recession of Niagara Falls in 1907. Horseshoe Falls stood slightly upstream Horseshoe, the Final Falls. The Final Falls; Six years later, Kindle and Taylor's (1913) from that deep. The extraordinary fact will be much lower than the preceding Niagara Folio was published. By 1950, the about the bottom of the Niagara River and Geological Society of America Bulletin, v. 85, p. 91-98, 2 figs., January 1974 91 Downloaded from http://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-pdf/85/1/91/3429339/i0016-7606-85-1-91.pdf by guest on 02 October 2021 jM PW J NAVY ,RAfv:D ISLAND NORTH MAP RECESSION OF NIAGARA FALLS EXPLANATION — Thalweg • Lockport gorge —» Solrno gorge — Ber lie-Onondaga gorge Buried channel • 6- Depth of woter, feet — Crest of present waterfall Salina GORGE Members of Solino Gtoup (See Fi»2J jSA MAJOR EVENTS Horseshoe Foils lowers Chippawa- Orass Island Prol ond unwuters Americon Foils Criippowo Horseshoe Foils captures E•<ghr channel at Navy Island Recessive waier foil changes 10 E quosi srotionory waterfoll Ì - '/T-^ .- Cnippawo Cnarrel captures HfffTil ONONDAGA mTonawanOa Chonnci Ì CORGtVfäk j 5 | Finol Foils originates ttowapv fiintMf* how« tguiv^ent ocesl SCALE -----i; :M,LE Vj' ^ 7 iC^ FEET ..... KILOMETER Snorter S Phi lb nek February 1973 Figure I Figure 1. Mtp of recession of Niagara Falls. Downloaded from http://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-pdf/85/1/91/3429339/i0016-7606-85-1-91.pdf by guest on 02 October 2021 O 0) Q. o O o> < LL. D ^ a> CP <v ® o CD cn •o "D O "O c o LLI <f>o c c sz c O o »> t/) >- cr> (/) £ o o a> CD <U O CD c T3 1 h O o g CO w 5; V <u o O Q> o 0 s 1 0) 5 S 3 D os §1 Q. U. 00 c o o m1i OD > I - C\J O 1 1 1 r^ 1 1 SQQi Woter Surface 100% I 60 7, aooJ 30QJ 2QQ1 112. iQQj Sea LeveL Points on International Boundary g a a .a q a J.. 1 10 9 T I Future Thalweg 10" Fee* D=Diversion Plunge pools in Lockport and Bertie-Ononda g o Gorges Stepped rapids in Salina Gorge Figure 2. Geologic section along thalweg, Chippawa Channel, Niagara River; Lake Erie to Horseshoe Falls. Downloaded from http://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-pdf/85/1/91/3429339/i0016-7606-85-1-91.pdf by guest on 02 October 2021 94 S. S. PHILBRICK the Upper Great Gorge is that it is so and 4) reproduced this sketch in juxtaposi- were caused by violent "rock bursts" of non-uniform.
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