Jiangxi Shangrao Early Childhood Education Demonstration Program (RRP PRC 51434)

Home , Hengfeng County, Jingdezhen, Shangrao, Yugan County

JIANGXI SHANGRAO EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (51434-001)

PROJECT PREPARATORY TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE

TA 9589 - CHN

CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

June 2020

Contents Page

I. OVERVIEW 3 A. Background 3 B. Project Components 4 1. Climate Screening 5 2. Climatic Trends 7 3. Review of Literature Concerning Climatic Change 11

II. ASSESSING ADAPTATION NEEDS 13 A. Impact Assessment 13 B. Vulnerability Assessment 14 1. ECE Childcare Centers (Kindergartens) 14 2. Training and Career Center 14 C. Adaptation Analysis and Measures 14 1. Design and Performance strategies 15 2. Non-Engineering Measures 15

TABLES Table 1: Program Scope Table 2: Climate screening by ADB tool Table 3: Climate screening by literature review Table 4: Literature reviewed Table 5: Adaptation/Resilience Measures

FIGURES Figure1: Annual mean temperature and precipitation anomaly series in Jiangxi province Figure2: Annual mean temperature projections under different RCPs Figure3: Statistics of projected temperature data from 2014 to 2020 Figure4: Precipitation projections under different RCPs Figure5: Statistics of projected precipitation data from 2014 to 2020

ANNEX

Abstract of Feature Analysis of Weather Change in Recent 52 Years in Jiangxi Province

I. OVERVIEW

A. Background

1. Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment is a part of the Final Report of Project Preparatory Technical Assistance (PPTA) for preparing finalizing Jiangxi Shangrao Early Childhood Education Demonstration Project (The project). The project is a cofinanced project initiated by Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Government of Jiangxi Province. The project activities are dispersed in 12 counties and administration districts of Shangrao Municipality.

2. The project is ADB’s investment response to local request of an improved access to quality 3-year early childhood education (ECE), especially in rural areas by (i) increasing quality ECE facilities, especially in rural areas; (ii) improving pre- and in-service kindergarten teachers and principal training systems; and (iii) developing models and systems for improving and ensuring the quality of ECE, especially in rural areas. The project will be the first ECE project in the People's Republic of China (PRC). Assistance from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) will facilitate access to knowledge and expertise in ECE pedagogy, quality assessments, and research. It will also add value by introducing digital technologies and solutions to enhance access to quality ECE, especially in rural areas, and strengthen institutional capacity and governance. Impact evaluation of specific ECE interventions on child progress and development, and possibly on women's labor force participation, is considered.

3. The RBL program’s impact will be universal coverage of quality 3-year ECE achieved (footnote 1). The outcome will be children receiving quality 3-year ECE increased. More children will receive 3-year ECE, whose quality will be enhanced through improved ECE teacher–child interactions. The program will have four outputs.

4. Output 1: Provision of affordable 3-year early childhood education increased. The program will improve access to affordable ECE by creating more spaces for children in public and inclusive private kindergartens. The percentage of children enrolled in public and inclusive private kindergartens will increase. The program will also alleviate ECE staff shortages by attracting and retaining qualified ECE staff through increased government-financed ECE teacher and childcare staff positions with better salaries and benefits. All children from families living below the minimum living standards will continue to benefit from government financial assistance to receive 3-year ECE.

5. Output 2: Systems for preparation and professional development of early childhood education teachers, principals, and childcare staff established. The program will support the establishment of competency frameworks for ECE teachers, principals, and childcare staff, based on which ECE staff preparation and professional development programs will be updated or newly developed. Candidates for ECE teachers and childcare staff who have completed competency-based preservice education programs in Shangrao will increase. The majority of in-service ECE staff will complete updated (for new and in-service ECE teachers) and newly developed (for principals and childcare staff) professional development programs that are aligned with the competency frameworks. Moreover, through those updated and newly developed preparation and professional development programs, the percentage of ECE teachers and principals who have passed the national teacher qualification exam and obtained an ECE teacher license will increase.

6. Output 3: Models and mechanisms for improving the quality of early childhood education developed. The program will support research projects to be conducted by an ECE expert committee established under the Shangrao Municipal Bureau of Education (SBE), comprising ECE teachers and principals of model kindergartens, and researchers 4 from colleges and universities, to address pressing issues with access to quality ECE in Shangrao. The program will also support the development and activities of professional learning communities led by provincial model kindergartens and involving ECE teachers, principals, and childcare staff from participating kindergartens, to reflect on and improve instructional, management and leadership, and childcare practices as a mechanism for job-embedded professional development. Moreover, the program will pilot play-based learning reform to engage children in deeper learning experiences and community-based parenting programs in villages to reach out to left-behind children and their caregivers, usually grandparents.1

7. Output 4: Systems for assessing, monitoring, and ensuring the quality of early childhood education strengthened. The program will introduce ECE quality assessment and monitoring tools that focus on specific dimensions of ECE quality (program, and ECE teacher–child interactions) associated with children’s learning and developmental outcomes. It will also improve regulations for private kindergartens by applying strict licensing and registration. The program will expand the Smart Education Platform for primary and junior secondary schools to cover kindergartens for improved management and reporting.2

B. Project Components

8. The project is developed under ADB RBL program. The RBL program will be a time slice of the municipal government’s ECE program, covering 2020–2025, and will focus on key interventions designed to improve access to quality ECE, establish pre- and in-service ECE staff professional development systems, and strengthen ECE program monitoring and management systems. The scope of the municipal government and RBL programs is summarized in Table 1.

Table 1: Program Scope Item Broader Government Program Results-Based Lending Program Outcome Universal coverage of 3-year, affordable, safe, Children receiving quality 3-year ECE and quality ECE achieved increased Key outputs Provision of ECE expanded, ECE financing Provision of affordable 3-year ECE mechanisms improved, ECE staffing and increased; systems for preparation and teaching force strengthened, ECE professional development of ECE management systems enhanced, regulations teachers, principals, and childcare staff and support for private kindergartens established; models and mechanisms for improved, and adequate ECE governance improving the quality of ECE developed; mechanisms established and systems for assessing, monitoring, and ensuring the quality of ECE strengthened Activity types Physical infrastructure improvement, Same as the broader government enhanced regulations and support for private program, with a focus on key interventions kindergartens, establishment of pre- and to improve access to and quality of ECE, in-service training systems for ECE staff, establish pre- and in-service ECE staff recruitment of ECE teachers and childcare preparation and professional development staff, enhanced support systems for rural systems, and strengthen ECE program kindergartens, ECE research, and monitoring and management systems development of ECE quality assessment and

1 Community-based parenting programs are initiatives based in communities to provide a set of resources or services designed to increase the capacities of parents, grandparents, and other caregivers to foster children’s health, development, and education. 2 The Smart Education Platform, developed and operated based on the WeChat platform by the Shangrao Municipal Center for Educational Technology in partnership with Tencent Holdings Ltd., provides integrated solutions for education management, online education, teacher research and collaboration, resource sharing, student–teacher evaluation, school–home communication, home– school communication, and safety management. 5

Item Broader Government Program Results-Based Lending Program monitoring systems Program $3,350.4 million $750.8 million expenditure Main financiers and Government: $1,949.2 million, households Government: $289.4 million,a households the respective (tuition and other fees): $959.2 million, ADB: (tuition and other fees): $240.1 million,a financing amounts $100.0 million, financing gap: $341.9 million ADB: $100.0 million, financing gap: $121.3 million Geographic Shangrao Municipality Shangrao Municipality coverage Implementation 2020–2035 2020–2025 period ADB = Asian Development Bank, ECE = early childhood education. a Excludes financing from Dexing City, Hengfeng County, and Yugan County. Sources: ADB and Shangrao Municipal Government.

9. The project activities are dispersed in 12 counties administration districts in Shangrao Municipality. Shangrao is studied in the climate risk assessment as a single integrated target for all project activities. Shangrao is situated in the northern-east part of Jiangxi Province, adjacent to Poyang lake basin

1. Climate Screening

10. The potential for the infrastructures and activates to be affected by future climate change was considered in: ADB Report, Climate-Related Disasters in Asia and the Pacific; World Bank Report, Climate Trends and Impacts in China; and Local Report, Feature analysis of weather change in recent 52 years in Jiangxi province; etc. An abstract of the climate projection report is attached as Annex A.

11. The screening identified extremely intense precipitation and flood as a medium risk affecting project design, construction, maintenance and performance. However, extremely intense precipitation causes considerable damages to construction sites. Extremely intense precipitation and flood can disturb regular human resource arrangement, in case the project sites have access difficulties. Junior citizens accommodated in project facilities are highly vulnerable to extreme climate events. Emergency reaction plans must be available in all project buildings. However, upon the results of site visit conducted by the climate change mission, all project sites are situated in developed urbanized areas with drainage systems.

12. The screening identified extremely high temperature as a low risk affecting project sitting/design, construction, maintenance and performance. Junior citizens accommodated in project facilities are highly vulnerable to high temperature. The highest temperature recorded by modern methodology in Shangrao is 43.3 Degree Celsius (August 10th,1953).

13. The screening identified lack of precipitation/drought as a low risk affecting project sitting/design, construction, maintenance and performance. Drought may cause potable water supply shortage. Emergency reaction plan for potable water supply shall be available in all project activity buildings.

14. The screening identified extreme low temperature as a low risk affecting project sitting/design, construction, maintenance, and performance. The lowest temperature recorded by modern methodology in Shangrao is –14.3 Degree Celsius (December 29,1991). Low temperature, below – 10 Degree Celsius, may causes damages to buildings during construction phase by low cement solidification. Civil works in winter shall follow the national technical code: JGJ/T 104-2011 Specification of winter construction of building engineering.

15. The screening summarized the potential climate risks as follows:

ADB Rapid Environmental Assessment (REA) Climate Change Checklist

Table 1: Climate Screening by ADB Tool

Table 3: Climate Screening by Literature Review ECE childcare facilities Project construction sites and operational sites can be (kindergartens) affected by floods.

Extremely intense precipitation and flood can affect daily life and safety of junior citizens accommodated in project facilities.

Extreme low and extreme high temperature can affect daily life of junior citizens accommodated in project facilities.

Lack of precipitation/drought can affect daily life of junior citizens accommodated in project facilities. ECE staff preparation training Project construction sites and operational sites can be center affected by floods. Lack of precipitation/drought can affect normal operation of training and career center.

The overall review for potential climate risk is: The project has risks of violent precipitation and flood and other low risks related to climate events. The junior citizens accommodated in the project facilities are vulnerable to weather conditions such as temperature and potable water. However, the resilient measures will be available in all project buildings for risk mitigation. The global gravity of climate risk of Jiangxi Shangrao Early Childhood Education Demonstration Project (The project) is assessed as Low.

16. Associate facilities. The project sites of Jiangxi Shangrao Early Childhood Education Demonstration Project (The project) and all associated facilities such as water supply pipelines and grid networks are all located inside Shangrao City. Considering that Shangrao City is assessed as the sole investigation target for this project, the associated facilities shall have the same climate risks as project activities. Hence, the global gravity of climate risk of associated facilities is assessed as Low.

17. While the Bank’s Safeguard Policy Statement (SPS) requires environmental due diligence of associated facilities in adjacent areas. The project has no input into the design or operation of these associated facilities. The management units of project activities are recommended to have a communication mechanism with administration of associated facilities to coordinate climate change adaption and mitigation actions.

2. Climatic Trends

18. Studies of Regional Climate Change: By using the annual precipitation and temperature data of 15 weather stations in Jiangxi province from 1958 to 2009，by means of linear trend，moving average，PLS，M -K，and wavelet method，do some research on Climate change trend，abrupt change，and cycle characteristics in Jiangxi province．The results show that mean annual temperature presents an obvious growth trend in Jiangxi province in recent 52 years．Average temperature grows at 0.16~C per 10a，especially after 1990s，the increase of temperature is obvious．The rate of linear trend of precipitation is 15．135mm per10 a, but it doesn’t pass the test of significance．In the analysis of abrupt change，abrupt change of temperature and precipitation happened in 2004，and the 8eries of precipitation don’t have any obvious change point. In the analysis of cycle，both of temperature and precipitation have an oscillating period of 26a、13a、4a．The cycle of 26a，which is obvious in whole time series, is the first primary cycle．By comparing, the occurrence of temperature and precipitation is 8 highly related, that is, high temperature presents dry period, low temperature presents the rainy period．

19. Temperature trend: Temperature change trend Figure 2 (a) shows the annual average temperature anomaly sequence change curve in Jiangxi Province from 1958 to 2009. From a linear trend, the average annual temperature has continued to rise in the past 52 years, with an increase rate of 0.16°C/10a, and after passing the significance test of 0.05, the average increase of 52a is 0.84°C. The 5-year moving average curve shows that the precipitation is fluctuating and rising. The peaks mainly appear in 1962a, 1980a and 2005a, and there are multiple troughs, but they are relatively weak, appearing in the early 1970s, early 1980s and mid-1990s, respectively. Judging from the interdecadal change of temperature in Jiangxi Province, the temperatures in the 60s, 70s, and 80s in the 20th century were relatively low, respectively lower than the average of 52a by 0.12°C, ~0.28°C, and 0.25°C; since the 1990s, The temperature is gradually rising, and the temperature is higher in the early 21st century. The turning point of temperature change was in the 1990s. After the 1990s, the 10-year temperature anomaly changed from a negative value to a positive value, and increased significantly. The average annual temperature of 15 meteorological stations showed an increasing trend to varying degrees, and all passed a significant level of 0.05. Among them, the northeast region has the largest growth rate, Jingdezhen has a high growth rate of 0.307°C/10a, the southwest region has the smallest growth rate, and Gan County has a growth rate of only 0.084°C/10a. Shangrao is situated in the north of Jiangxi Province.

20. Precipitation Trend: Figure 2(b) is the variation curve of annual average precipitation anomaly in Jiangxi Province from 1958 to 2009. The linear trend analysis shows that throughout the analysis period, there is an increasing trend of annual precipitation in Jiangxi Province, with a growth rate of 15.135 mm/10a, but failed to pass the significance test of 0.05, indicating that this increasing trend is not significant. It can be seen from Figure 2 that the annual precipitation change trend has obvious phases. In the 11 years from 1958 to 1968, there were 3 years of positive anomalies and 8 years of negative anomalies, and the magnitude of the negative anomalies was greater than the positive anomalies. The anomalous amplitude is mainly negative anomalies; the 23 years from 1969 to 1991, there are 13 years of positive anomalies and 10 years of negative anomalies. The years of positive anomalies and negative anomalies appear alternately, with similar changes. Shock period. From 1992 to 2002, positive anomalies were significantly more than negative anomalies, and the magnitude of positive anomalies was also greater than negative anomalies, mainly positive anomalies. From 2003 to 2009, negative anomalies were more than positive anomalies. . From the five-year moving average, precipitation shows fluctuations. The peaks mainly appear in the mid-1970s, early 1980s, and late 1990s, and the valleys appear in the 1960s, 1970s, and late 1980s. The curve starts from around 2000 and has a significant downward trend. Judging from the interdecadal change of precipitation in Jiangxi Province.

Figure 1: Annual Mean Temperature (a) and Precipitation (b) Anomaly Series in Jiangxi Province

21. Projected climate change: The 1961—2010 daily temperature and precipitation data of the 26 weather stations around Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone are employed to analyze the facts of climate change in Poyang Lake watershed．Based on the 2014-2100 data from “Chinese Climate Change Projection data set Version 3.0” ， the future regional temperature and precipitation variations are estimated under different RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios in Poyang Lake watershed．The conclusions are：(i) The historical temperature in Poyang Lake watershed presents significant ascendant trend, the ascendant trend is more obvious than that in the whole province．And the historical precipitation intensity in Poyang Lake watershed presents significant enhancement；(ii) Future temperature will still present an upward trend；(iii) The ascendant trend of temperature will slow down after 2040 if the effective measures would be taken from now on；and (iv) If high energy demand and high greenhouse gas emission exist for a longtime，the interannual variation of future precipitation will be more evident，and extreme precipitation event will become more frequent.

22. Projected temperature 2014–2100: Using the global climate model data, the temperature in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone from 2014 to 2100 under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios is estimated. Through the trend analysis, it is found that by 2040, the temperature will show an upward trend under three climate scenarios, and the three trend lines are highly overlapping; after 2040, the temperature under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios will still show a significant upward trend, while RCP2. 6 There is no upward trend in temperature under the scenario. Overall, the warming rate was fastest in the RCP8.5 scenario from 2014 to 2100, with an average rate of 0.54°C, (10a), followed by the RCP4.5 scenario, with a rate of 0.22°C/(10a), RCP2.6 Under the scenario, it is only 0.06℃, (10a). Through the comparison of averages, it was found that from 2014 to 2100, the annual average temperature under the RCP8.5 scenario was the highest (21.5℃), followed by the annual average temperature under the RCP4.5 scenario at 19.0℃, and the annual average temperature under the RCP2.6 scenario was the lowest (17.6℃).

Figure 2: Annual Mean Temperature Projections Under Different RCPs

Figure 3: Statistics of Projected Temperature Data from 2014 to 2020

23. Projected Precipitation 2014–2100: Using the global climate model data, we predict the RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios of the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone from 2014 to 2100. Data analysis shows that the precipitation in various scenarios shows a very significant upward trend by 2100. The annual precipitation tendency rate under the RCP8.5 scenario is 14.1mm/(10a), followed by the RCP4.5 scenario's tendency rate is 12.0mm/ (10a), the minimum propensity rate in the context of RCP2.6 is 10.1mm/ (10a); through the comparison of the averages, it is found that RCP4.5 has the highest annual precipitation, followed by RCP2.6, and RCP8.5 has the lowest annual precipitation; The analysis of variance found that the annual precipitation in the RCP 8.5 scenario has the largest annual fluctuations, followed by the RCP4.5 scenario, and the RCP2.6 scenario has the smallest fluctuations. From the above analysis, it can be seen that the annual precipitation in the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone will show a very significant upward trend in the future, and extreme precipitation events will occur more frequently.

Figure 4: Precipitation Projections under Different RCPs

Figure 5: Statistics of Projected Precipitation Data from 2014 to 2020

3. Review of Literature Concerning Climatic Change

Table 4: Literature Reviewed

Implications for the No. Document General contents Project 1 ADB Climate-Related Disaster Risk and Climate Risks concerning buildings Disasters Change, Extreme and infrastructure in Asia and the Pacific Temperatures and Precipitation, Hazards, Exposure, Vulnerability

2 Facts and predictions of Climate data generated by General circulation models climate change in Poyang general circulation models (GCMs) for Shangrao Area Lake Eco Economic Zone (GCMs) RCP 26, RCP 45, RCP 85 for Poyang Lake By Kong Ping et al., Watershed Jiangxi Climate Centre

3 ADB Climate-Related Disaster Risk and Climate Risks concerning buildings Disasters Change, Extreme and infrastructure in Asia and the Pacific Temperatures and Precipitation, Hazards, Exposure, Vulnerability

4 World Bank Climate Trends Climate Trends and Climate Trends and and Impacts in China Impacts in China Impacts in Central China

5 Feature analysis of weather Historical climate date for Historical climate date for change in recent 52 years Jiangxi Province Northern Area of Jiangxi 12

Implications for the No. Document General contents Project in Jiangxi province Province

By Wu Xi et al., School of Urban and Environmental Sciences，Huazhong Normal University

6 IPCC-AR5-Implications for Impact of climate change Impact of climate change Buildings on buildings on buildings

By: IPCC 7 Prediction on the possible Climate projection of Climate projection of climate change of Poyang Poyang Lake Basin Poyang Lake Basin Lake Basin in the future 50 years, under RCP scenario

By: Zhan Mingjin et al., China Academy of Meteorology 13

II. ASSESSING ADAPTATION NEEDS

24. The adaptation measures appropriate to the project are derived in a three-step process namely: impact, vulnerability and adaptation analyses.

25. Impact assessments consider climate trends and climate predictions. The vulnerability assessment considers the degree to which climate change impacts could adversely affect the objectives of the irrigation subprojects. The assessment of adaptation in design and operation considers engineering and non-engineering solutions. Finally, the implementation of adaptation measures is described.

A. Impact Assessment

26. Impact of flooding on public service facility (Childcare centres and Training centres): Flooding can cause site erosion, structural and nonstructural building damage, the destruction or impairment of utilities and mechanical equipment, damage to or loss of contents, health threats from contaminated floodwater, and temporary or permanent closure. The eventual damages could be: Site damage. Building grounds may be subject to erosion and scour, with the possible loss of soil and damage to paved areas, including access roads. Large amounts of debris and sediment can accumulate on the site, especially against fences. Structural damage. Foundations can be eroded, destabilizing or collapsing walls and heaving floors. Saturation damage. Saturated walls and floors can lead to plaster, drywall, insulation, and tile damage, mold and moisture problems, wood decay, and metal corrosion. Utility system damage. Electrical wiring and equipment can be shorted and their metal components corrode. Ductwork can be fouled and expensive heating and cooling equipment ruined. Oil storage tanks can be displaced and leak, polluting the areas around them. Sewers can back up and contaminate the water supply and building components. Contents damage. ECE childcare furniture, computers, files, books, lab materials and equipment, and kitchen goods and equipment can be damaged or contaminated. Health threats. Mold growth and contaminants in flooded sites can pose significant health threats to junior citizens and staff. Childcare and training sites closure. Flooded sites must be closed during cleanup and repair. The length of closure and the ability of the ECE sites to return to teaching depend on the severity of the damage and lingering health hazards. It may also depend on whether the sites are fully insured or how quickly disaster assistance is made available for cleaning and repair. If the sites are located in a flood plain, it may be permanently closed. Childcare and training sites Evacuation. Childcare sites are vulnerable to floods. Junior citizens and education equipment can be harmed with intensive flushing or flooding.

27. Impact of flooding on training center and ergonomic arrangement: Often flooding is a complex combination of various causes (coastal, fluvial and pluvial). Further, transportation systems are very sensitive to external disturbances. Transportation systems are usually paralyzed in Jiangxi province during flood period. ECE Project shall be closed or just for limited use. During floorings, project sites will lose most part of efficiency due to operational and ergonomic problems.

28. Low risk of drought: Shangrao city is situated just on the banks of Poyang Lake Surface Water System. Poyang Lake Water System has significant facilities to adjust water flow. The risk of drought is negligible in Shangrao city; however, potable water supply shall be guaranteed by emergency reaction plan.

B. Vulnerability Assessment

1. ECE Childcare Centers (Kindergartens)

29. Design. The location of ECE Childcare centers shall be chosen with less risks of flooding.

30. Construction sites are highly vulnerable to floods and violent precipitation events. The design of construction deployment must consider emergent drainage. The project sites should be designed with water deviation/interception trench and anti-overflow devices.

1. During drought period, the water supply to construction site should be secured.

2. Underground floors of ECE Childcare centers shall be equipped with escaping facilities for human evacuation during eventual flooding events.

3. Potable water supply to ECE childcare centres shall be secured with action plan and backup facilities and materials during drought period.

4. Materials, maintenance and performance. Materials, maintenance and performance. The project shall choose materials and equipment with tolerance to water erosion.

5. An emergency reaction plan shall be available to evacuate human and equipment during flooding events.

2. Training and Career Center

6. Design. The location of training and career center shall be chosen with less risks of flooding.

7. Construction sites are highly vulnerable to floods and violent precipitation events. The design of construction deployment must consider emergent drainage. The project sites should be designed with water deviation/interception trench and anti-overflow devices.

8. During drought period, the water supply to construction site should be secured.

9. Underground floors of training and career center shall be equipped with escaping facilities for human evacuation during eventual flooding events.

10. Potable water supply shall be secured with action plan and backup facilities and materials during drought period.

11. Materials, maintenance, and performance. The project shall choose materials and equipment with tolerance to water erosion.

12. An emergency reaction plan shall be available to evacuate human and equipment during flooding events.

C. Adaptation Analysis and Measures

13. During construction period, anti-flotation and anchoring measurement shall be available to handle the risk of flood. The building, any gas or liquid storage tanks, and any equipment servicing the building must be designed and anchored to prevent flotation, collapse, or lateral movement during the 100-year flood event. In addition to anchoring the 15 building to its foundation, it is necessary to ensure that the foundation won’t move (due to hydrostatic forces, hydrodynamic forces, or undercutting by erosion or scour). In areas where flood velocities exceed five feet per second, additional anchoring measures may be required, such as reinforcing crawlspace walls, using deeper footings, using extra bolts to connect the sill to the foundation, or installing rods to connect the cap to the sill.

14. For operational purpose, possible climate proofing measures for this project mainly focus on design features, but also include recommendations for materials, maintenance and performance. Designs of the proposed project components are required to take into account the climate change impact on seasonal runoff/flash floods, increased temperature effects and severe weather events. The measures relating to materials, maintenance, and performance focus on stipulation of high quality improving the relevant government policy and institutional capacity to implement the designs and properly maintain the facilities.

1. Design and Performance strategies

15. A list of design and performance strategies which address the vulnerabilities identified in this CRVA, by component sectors is provided in Table 5 below. During project preparation, and later in the detailed design phase of project implementation these recommendations should be included in final specifications for construction.

16. Some of the project components will be integrated into the entire surrounding habitation area. Mitigation and adaptation measurements shall be implemented with coordination of the adjacent habitation area. Associated facilities such as water supply pipelines and electricity distribution grid shall receive appropriate maintenance organised by the municipal administration comply with national standard and ADB climate change policy.

Table 5: Adaptation/Resilience Measures Component Adaptation/Resilience Measures sector ECE Childcare ▪ Design of facilities and buildings, should be to pass a 1-in-100-year flood, plus centers a standard safety margin, plus a 6% margin for flash flood peaks. (Kindergartens) ▪ Surface water-shedding drainage should be designed for a 1-in-5-year rainfall event. ▪ Water pipes and leachate pipes should be resilient against low temperature without frequent severe bursts. ▪ Materials and equipment should have enough resilience with margin against 10 days water scouring or soaking. ▪ Landscape sites and eventual vegetation areas shall have emergency irrigation system to handle the risk of drought. ▪ Heating and cooling system shall be available on all operational project sites. Training and ▪ Same as above project components career center

2. Non-Engineering Measures

17. Non-engineering approaches focus on the facilities and associated facilities shared with adjacent areas. Governing municipal government of each project site should use administrative measurements to guarantee the water supply network and electricity distribution grid are robust enough to be operational during extreme climate events.

18. Environment Protection Bureau is the governing office for some of the associated facilities, PMO and governing municipal government of each project site shall liaise with EPB 16 for coordination on climate mitigation and climate adaptation works.

GHG reduction of project activities:

19. A computation of GHG emission of project baseline scenario (without project) and GHG emission of project scenario (with project) has been conducted by climate change expert.

Methodology: Shanghai Institute of Technology <> Average Experiential Value of Chinese cities : 141 kg CO2e / m2 year = 0.141 t CO2 e / m2 year.

According to communication with PMO, the total building operational surface is approximately 100,000 m2.

Baseline Emission = 100,000 m2 (68 kindergartens) * 0.141 t CO2 e / m2 year = 14,100 t CO2 e / m2 year. The project emission scenario shall be built according to 13th National Five-Year Plan: Green Buildings shall save 20% energy compare to traditional buildings. The project is designed with one-star green building standard. One-star green building shall achieve at least 50% of all the requests of Green Building Standard set by 13th National Five-Year Plan. To be conservative, the CRVA mission is considering the buildings in the project will have 9% carbon reduction against baseline scenario.

Project Emission = Baseline Emission(1- 0.3 * 0.09) = 13,719 t CO2 e 30% of the project buildings will be one-star green building.

Baseline Project GHG

Emission Emission Reduction

teCO2/a 14,100 13,719 381

20. Mitigation Cost. According to China Construction Industry Association, one-star green buildings cost 20 RMB more than baseline standard building.

Budget for Green Building =100,000 m2 * 30% * 20 RMB = 600,000 RMB (30% of the buildings will be green building)

Budget for Solar Water Heaters = 4,000 RMB * 68* 0.3 * 5 units = 408,000 RMB ~ 400,000 RMB

(30% of the kindergartens will use solar water heater, each kindergarten uses 5 solar water heaters, 4,000 RMB budget for each solar water heater) Approximately Sum: 1,000,000 RMB = 0.14 Million USD

Adaptation cost:

Emergency alarming/evacuation systems: 2 Million CNY = 0.28 million USD (1 emergency alarming and evacuation gear set per kindergarten, 68 kindergartens. Plus 100 gear sets for existing kindergartens, 12,000 RMB/unit)

Approximately Sum: 0.28 million USD

Financing Proportion ADB is financing 80 Million of the 140 million construction budget, approximately 57%.

Summary: GHG Emission Reduction: 381 eTCO2 / Year Mitigation Cost: Million 0.14 USD (ADB finances 57% = 0.08 Million USD) Adaptation Cost: Million 0.28 USD (ADB finances 57% = 0.16 Million USD)

21. Recommendation relating to climate change: The climate assessment mission recommends that to study the possibility of conserving existing building for project use. Construction GHG emission rate in China is assumed as 5 t CO2 e / m2 built (According to Study on the calculation method of carbon emission during the construction process of architectural project, Changan University, Xi’an). The project will avoid approximately 5 t CO2 e greenhouse gas emission per square meter existing building conserved.

22. Eco-Building: The project can employ various low carbon technologies during building design and construction, such as insulation layers and renewable energy. According to agreement between PMO and CRVA mission, 30% of the project buildings will have conformity to national one-star Green buildings standard.

18 Annex