Jiangxi Shangrao Early Childhood Education Demonstration Program (RRP PRC 51434) JIANGXI SHANGRAO EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (51434-001) PROJECT PREPARATORY TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TA 9589 - CHN CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT June 2020 2 Contents Page I. OVERVIEW 3 A. Background 3 B. Project Components 4 1. Climate Screening 5 2. Climatic Trends 7 3. Review of Literature Concerning Climatic Change 11 II. ASSESSING ADAPTATION NEEDS 13 A. Impact Assessment 13 B. Vulnerability Assessment 14 1. ECE Childcare Centers (Kindergartens) 14 2. Training and Career Center 14 C. Adaptation Analysis and Measures 14 1. Design and Performance strategies 15 2. Non-Engineering Measures 15 TABLES Table 1: Program Scope Table 2: Climate screening by ADB tool Table 3: Climate screening by literature review Table 4: Literature reviewed Table 5: Adaptation/Resilience Measures FIGURES Figure1: Annual mean temperature and precipitation anomaly series in Jiangxi province Figure2: Annual mean temperature projections under different RCPs Figure3: Statistics of projected temperature data from 2014 to 2020 Figure4: Precipitation projections under different RCPs Figure5: Statistics of projected precipitation data from 2014 to 2020 ANNEX Abstract of Feature Analysis of Weather Change in Recent 52 Years in Jiangxi Province 3 I. OVERVIEW A. Background 1. Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment is a part of the Final Report of Project Preparatory Technical Assistance (PPTA) for preparing finalizing Jiangxi Shangrao Early Childhood Education Demonstration Project (The project). The project is a cofinanced project initiated by Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Government of Jiangxi Province. The project activities are dispersed in 12 counties and administration districts of Shangrao Municipality. 2. The project is ADB’s investment response to local request of an improved access to quality 3-year early childhood education (ECE), especially in rural areas by (i) increasing quality ECE facilities, especially in rural areas; (ii) improving pre- and in-service kindergarten teachers and principal training systems; and (iii) developing models and systems for improving and ensuring the quality of ECE, especially in rural areas. The project will be the first ECE project in the People's Republic of China (PRC). Assistance from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) will facilitate access to knowledge and expertise in ECE pedagogy, quality assessments, and research. It will also add value by introducing digital technologies and solutions to enhance access to quality ECE, especially in rural areas, and strengthen institutional capacity and governance. Impact evaluation of specific ECE interventions on child progress and development, and possibly on women's labor force participation, is considered. 3. The RBL program’s impact will be universal coverage of quality 3-year ECE achieved (footnote 1). The outcome will be children receiving quality 3-year ECE increased. More children will receive 3-year ECE, whose quality will be enhanced through improved ECE teacher–child interactions. The program will have four outputs. 4. Output 1: Provision of affordable 3-year early childhood education increased. The program will improve access to affordable ECE by creating more spaces for children in public and inclusive private kindergartens. The percentage of children enrolled in public and inclusive private kindergartens will increase. The program will also alleviate ECE staff shortages by attracting and retaining qualified ECE staff through increased government-financed ECE teacher and childcare staff positions with better salaries and benefits. All children from families living below the minimum living standards will continue to benefit from government financial assistance to receive 3-year ECE. 5. Output 2: Systems for preparation and professional development of early childhood education teachers, principals, and childcare staff established. The program will support the establishment of competency frameworks for ECE teachers, principals, and childcare staff, based on which ECE staff preparation and professional development programs will be updated or newly developed. Candidates for ECE teachers and childcare staff who have completed competency-based preservice education programs in Shangrao will increase. The majority of in-service ECE staff will complete updated (for new and in-service ECE teachers) and newly developed (for principals and childcare staff) professional development programs that are aligned with the competency frameworks. Moreover, through those updated and newly developed preparation and professional development programs, the percentage of ECE teachers and principals who have passed the national teacher qualification exam and obtained an ECE teacher license will increase. 6. Output 3: Models and mechanisms for improving the quality of early childhood education developed. The program will support research projects to be conducted by an ECE expert committee established under the Shangrao Municipal Bureau of Education (SBE), comprising ECE teachers and principals of model kindergartens, and researchers 4 from colleges and universities, to address pressing issues with access to quality ECE in Shangrao. The program will also support the development and activities of professional learning communities led by provincial model kindergartens and involving ECE teachers, principals, and childcare staff from participating kindergartens, to reflect on and improve instructional, management and leadership, and childcare practices as a mechanism for job-embedded professional development. Moreover, the program will pilot play-based learning reform to engage children in deeper learning experiences and community-based parenting programs in villages to reach out to left-behind children and their caregivers, usually grandparents.1 7. Output 4: Systems for assessing, monitoring, and ensuring the quality of early childhood education strengthened. The program will introduce ECE quality assessment and monitoring tools that focus on specific dimensions of ECE quality (program, and ECE teacher–child interactions) associated with children’s learning and developmental outcomes. It will also improve regulations for private kindergartens by applying strict licensing and registration. The program will expand the Smart Education Platform for primary and junior secondary schools to cover kindergartens for improved management and reporting.2 B. Project Components 8. The project is developed under ADB RBL program. The RBL program will be a time slice of the municipal government’s ECE program, covering 2020–2025, and will focus on key interventions designed to improve access to quality ECE, establish pre- and in-service ECE staff professional development systems, and strengthen ECE program monitoring and management systems. The scope of the municipal government and RBL programs is summarized in Table 1. Table 1: Program Scope Item Broader Government Program Results-Based Lending Program Outcome Universal coverage of 3-year, affordable, safe, Children receiving quality 3-year ECE and quality ECE achieved increased Key outputs Provision of ECE expanded, ECE financing Provision of affordable 3-year ECE mechanisms improved, ECE staffing and increased; systems for preparation and teaching force strengthened, ECE professional development of ECE management systems enhanced, regulations teachers, principals, and childcare staff and support for private kindergartens established; models and mechanisms for improved, and adequate ECE governance improving the quality of ECE developed; mechanisms established and systems for assessing, monitoring, and ensuring the quality of ECE strengthened Activity types Physical infrastructure improvement, Same as the broader government enhanced regulations and support for private program, with a focus on key interventions kindergartens, establishment of pre- and to improve access to and quality of ECE, in-service training systems for ECE staff, establish pre- and in-service ECE staff recruitment of ECE teachers and childcare preparation and professional development staff, enhanced support systems for rural systems, and strengthen ECE program kindergartens, ECE research, and monitoring and management systems development of ECE quality assessment and 1 Community-based parenting programs are initiatives based in communities to provide a set of resources or services designed to increase the capacities of parents, grandparents, and other caregivers to foster children’s health, development, and education. 2 The Smart Education Platform, developed and operated based on the WeChat platform by the Shangrao Municipal Center for Educational Technology in partnership with Tencent Holdings Ltd., provides integrated solutions for education management, online education, teacher research and collaboration, resource sharing, student–teacher evaluation, school–home communication, home– school communication, and safety management. 5 Item Broader Government Program Results-Based Lending Program monitoring systems Program $3,350.4 million $750.8 million expenditure Main financiers and Government: $1,949.2 million, households Government: $289.4 million,a households the respective (tuition and other fees): $959.2 million, ADB: (tuition and other fees): $240.1 million,a financing amounts $100.0 million, financing gap: $341.9 million ADB: $100.0 million, financing gap: $121.3 million Geographic Shangrao Municipality Shangrao Municipality coverage Implementation 2020–2035