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Sticky Socialism UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Sticky Socialism: A Quantitative Study of Citizens’ Adaptation to Economic and Political Regime Change A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Diana Vladimirova Ichpekova 2014 © Copyright by Diana Vladimirova Ichpekova 2014 ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Sticky Socialism: A Quantitative Study of Citizens’ Adaptation to Economic and Political Regime Change by Diana Vladimirova Ichpekova Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science University of California, Los Angeles, 2014 Professor David O. Sears, Chair The collapse of communism two decades ago – and the subsequent political and economic transformation of Central and Eastern Europe – has raised new questions about the ability of citizens to adapt to changing institutional orders. This dissertation project starts with a large and fundamental puzzle: over the past twenty years, post-communist nations have shown improved convergence toward Western standards of economic and political performance, yet public opinion has grown increasingly disapproving of the changes that have taken place. Why? While rational-choice theories expect individuals to engage in simple cost-benefit analyses of altering realities, psychological accounts suggest impediments to such practicable ii adjustments; theories of socialization and attitude “persistence,” in particular, emphasize the perseverance and continuing influence of values acquired earlier in life. This dissertation seeks to integrate these various insights and provide a more comprehensive understanding of transition at the individual-level. Utilizing a unique mix of (a) cross-sectional, repeated survey data (European Values Study/World Values Study, 1990-2005), (b) longitudinal survey data (German Socioeconomic Panel, 1999-2010), and (c) macro indicators of economic and political outputs, it investigates the relative importance of early (“primacy”) experiences, (re-)learning procedures, and contemporary societal factors for the development of post-communist beliefs. Incorporating a range of statistical techniques, it also probes related mechanisms of change, including within- person attitude stability, alterations in cohort composition over time, migration, and the intergenerational transmission of values, so as to better address the prospects for convergence. The findings reveal numerous challenges to the task of attitudinal adaptation. Although post-communists are found to partially respond to changing circumstances – and to move some way toward the norms espoused by their Western counterparts – these shifts are shown to be neither linear over time, nor symmetrical for all involved. Rather, even decades after regime change, significant (leftist) biases remain, particularly for members of older cohorts. Supplementary analyses unearth additional evidence of resistance, illustrating how these stable, socialist distinctions might linger further into the long-term, defying physical relocation and potentially even population replacement. Such an inquiry is hoped to illuminate transitions beyond Europe (e.g., China, Middle East), where citizen adaptation to post-authoritarian climates will be critical for democratic consolidation. iii The dissertation of Diana Vladimirova Ichpekova is approved. Daniel Treisman James DeNardo John A. Agnew David O. Sears, Chair University of California, Los Angeles 2014 iv For my Family and Loved Ones, My Friends and Colleagues, My Professors and my Chair. v TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures Page viii List of Tables ix CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1 ORGANIZATION AND PREVIEW 16 CHAPTER II POST-COMMUNIST ATTITUDES: WHAT DO WE KNOW? 20 The Rationalist Approach 21 The Legacies Approach 31 POST-COMMUNIST LEARNING AND ATTITUDINAL ADAPTATION 38 A Unified Framework For A More Comprehensive Study of Convergence 43 (i) The Role of Socialization and “Primacy” Regime Experiences 45 (ii) The Role of Rationality and Post-Communist Experiences 50 Extensions 53 CHAPTER III Empirical Part A: "Old Kids on the Bloc" 57 DATA AND METHODS 58 Basic Economic and Political Preferences 60 Explanatory Variables 61 A Multilevel Model 65 RESULTS 66 (A) General Post-Communist Distinctions 66 (B) Age in the Two Regions 76 (C) Cohort Differences 80 EXTENSIONS 90 (D) Other Categories Of Attitudes 90 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION 96 vi CHAPTER IV Empirical Part B: "(Re-)Unifying Beliefs, Regaining Control" 101 GERMANY AS A CASE 104 A Brief History 104 Germany as a “Quasi-Natural Experiment” 108 DATA AND METHODS 111 Efficacy, or Perceived “Locus of Control” 111 Measuring Control Orientations 115 A Brief Note on “Political Efficacy” vs. “Locus of Control” 118 Explanatory Variables 120 The Model 123 RESULTS 124 (A) General Post-Communist Distinctions 124 (B) Age in the Two Regions 133 (C) Cohort Differences 137 EXTENSIONS 144 (D) Attitude Stability Among Former East Vs. West Germans 144 (E) Attitude Change Vs. Generational Replacement 152 (F) The Beliefs of East-West Migrants 156 (G) Intergenerational Transmission Of Values 163 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION 179 CHAPTER V FINAL REMARKS 189 REFERENCES 192 End Page 223 vii LIST OF FIGURES 1.1 Do People Think They Are Worse Off Than Under Communism? Page 11 3.1 Age and Preferences for Individual Economic Responsibility in Post- 77 Communist vs. Non-Post-Communist Countries 3.2 Age and Preferences for a Democratic Political System in Post-Communist 78 vs. Non-Post-Communist Countries 3.3 Economic Attitudinal Differences Between Post-Communist and Non-Post- 82 Communist Individuals From the Same Cohort (Pooled Dataset) 3.4 Political Attitudinal Differences Between Post-Communist and Non-Post- 83 Communist Individuals From the Same Cohort (Pooled Dataset) 3.5 Economic Attitudinal Differences Between Post-Communist and Non-Post- 86 Communist Individuals From the Same Cohort (Over Time) 3.6 Political Attitudinal Differences Between Post-Communist and Non-Post- 87 Communist Individuals From the Same Cohort (Over Time 4.1 Over-Time Difference in Odds of Internality For East Germans: Evidence of 130 Small Convergence 4.2 Age and Internal Locus of Control For East vs. West Germans 135 4.3 Differences in Odds of Internality Between East and West Germans From the 139 Same Cohort (Pooled Dataset) 4.4 Differences in Odds of Internality Between East and West Germans From the 141 Same Cohort (Over Time) 4.5 Consistent Differences in Odds of Internality For East Germans Who 155 Answered in All Waves: No Convergence 4.6 Relative Odds of Internality For East-Stayers, East-West Migrants and West 158 viii LIST OF TABLES 1.1 Public Approval of Change to Capitalism Across Central & Eastern Europe Page 9 1.2 Public Approval of Change to Democracy Across Central & Eastern Europe 9 1.3 Opinions about German Reunification 10 3.1 Multilevel Models of Basic Economic Attitudes 68 3.2 Multilevel Models of Basic Political Attitudes 69 3.3 Extensions to Other Dimensions Of Beliefs 92 4.1 Differences in Internal Locus of Control Between East and West Germans: 126 Pooled 4.2 Differences in Internal Locus of Control Between East and West Germans: 127 Over Time 4.3 Prevalence of Attitude Stability Among East Vs. West Germans 148 4.4 Differences in Attitude Stability Between East and West Germans 149 4.5 Over-Time Differences in Internality Between East and West Germans 154 Who Answered in All Three Waves 4.6 Differences in Internality Between East-Stayers, East-West Migrants and 157 West Germans 4.7 Attitude Stability of East-Stayers vs. East-West Migrants 161 4.8 (Combined) Parental Transmission For East and West German Parents 172 4.9 Mother vs. Father Transmission Among East and West German Parents 175 ix DIANA V. ICHPEKOVA EDUCATION 2007 – 2014: University of California, Los Angeles • C.Phil., Political Science, June 2010. • M.A., Political Science, April 2009. • Research Fields: American Politics, Comparative Politics, Quantitative Methods, Political Psychology. • Specialized in advanced survey research and large-N data analysis (including large-N, micro- and macro-level, panel- and cross-sectional data). 2004 – 2007: University of Bristol, U.K. • B.Sc. with First Class Honors, Joint Economics and Politics (equivalent to Summa Cum Laude). 1991 – 2000: Bulgarian (Evening) School, London, U.K. • Bulgarian National Leavers’ Diploma (for the study of Bulgarian language, literature and history). MAIN RESEARCH PAPERS • “Old Kids on the Bloc: The Dynamics of Post-Communist Attitudinal Adjustment.” • “(Re-)Unifying Attitudes, Regaining Control: The Development of Germans’ Efficacy Since the Collapse of the Berlin Wall.” • “What Drives Public Trust in Political Institutions? A Multilevel Analysis of the Cultural and Institutional Determinants of Political Trust in Europe.” • “Refining the Political Effects of Parliamentary Procedure: Gate-Opening Votes as (Conservatizing) Ex Ante Vetoes.” ACADEMIC WORK EXPERIENCE • College Academic Mentor/Counselor, College of Letters and Science, UCLA (Sept 2010 – June 2014). • Research Assistant for the American National Election Study’s Board of Advisors and Principal Investigators (Sept 2011 – Feb 2012). • Editorial Assistant, American Political Science Review (July 2008 – Sept 2010). • Teaching Assistant, Department of Political Science, UCLA (Winter 2008). x PROFESSIONAL WORK EXPERIENCE • Parliamentary Assistant for Claire Curtis-Thomas, M.P., House of Commons (Sept 2006). • Abbey Financial Markets: Short-Term Markets, Fixed Income Trading (July – Aug 2006). • UBS Investment Bank: OTC Equity Derivatives
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