INSIGHTS 2019 Traditional TV, online video & streaming - Disney+ special US UK Germany Denmark Sweden Norway Finland 2 AudienceProject Insights 2019 05 Editorial 07 Disney+ CONTENTS 19 Media usage 35 About the study AudienceProject Insights 2019 3 4 AudienceProject Insights 2019 Will Disney spin a business fairytale? Disney is gearing up to take on Netflix in the US Despite Disney+ just now going live in the US and the release still months in the future in Europe, the new streaming service is already looking to become a challenger for the top spots in a crowded field. In the US, more than half have already heard about Disney+ and 43% intend to subscribe. Not surprisingly, especially families with children EDITORIAL are expected to sign up to Disney+. The good news for the incumbent services is that most people will keep their existing packages. However, about 40% of the subscriber-in- tenders expect to cancel one or more of Disney’s competitors, with Netflix being mentioned most often. In the US, Norway and Finland, the likely drop will hit the hardest with 7%, 8% and 8%, respectively. It is not all sour for Netflix though. For the first time, the American com- pany is number one in all the seven countries covered in our study - even in Finland, where the local broadcaster YLE up until now has been sitting on the throne. Talking about thrones, the biggest jump in users in the Nordics comes from HBO Nordic, while HBO is finding it harder to gain traction in its home market. The question is if it can hold that position in the North post Game of Thrones. Rune Werliin Chief Product Officer @ AudienceProject AudienceProject Insights 2019 5 6 AudienceProject Insights 2019 DISNEY+ Even before the launch of Disney+, the awareness of Disney’s new streaming service is massive. Additionally, a lot of people are already considering subscribing to the new streaming service. For many, it will be at the expense of subscriptions to other streaming services, especially Netflix subscriptions. AudienceProject Insights 2019 7 More than half in the US know about Disney’s new streaming service [ How many know of or have heard about Disney+? ] US UK Germany 55% 40% 30% know of or have know of or have know of or have heard about Disney+ heard about Disney+ heard about Disney+ Denmark Sweden Norway Finland 31% 27% 30% 29% know of or have know of or have know of or have know of or have heard about Disney+ heard about Disney+ heard about Disney+ heard about Disney+ 8 AudienceProject Insights 2019 Especially families with children will subscribe to Disney+ Households with children Households without children [ How many are considering subscribing to Disney+? ] 50% 47% 42% 41% 38% 31% 30% 28% 26% 26% 24% 24% 21% 18% US UK Germany Denmark Sweden Norway Finland AudienceProject Insights 2019 9 In the following pages, we will show how many con- sumers are considering subscribing to Disney+ when it is launched, how many of the subscriber-intenders are Great interest in subscribing to also considering unsubscribing from any of their exist- ing streaming services, and which streaming services Disney+ in the US - and unsub- are likely to be dropped in favour of Disney+. scribing from existing services 43% are considering subscribing to Disney+ when it is launched are considering unsubscribing from one or more of 40% their existing streaming services Which streaming services will people unsubscribe from? 33% 18% 13% 8% 3% Netflix Hulu Amazon Prime HBO Now HBO Go 10 AudienceProject Insights 2019 Future Disney+ subscribers in Future Disney+ subscribers in the UK will primarily unsub- Germany will mostly unsubscribe scribe from Netflix from Netflix and Amazon Prime 26% 33% are considering subscribing to Disney+ when it is launched are considering subscribing to Disney+ when it is launched are considering unsubscribing from one or more of are considering unsubscribing from one or more of 37% their existing streaming services 41% their existing streaming services Which streaming services will people unsubscribe from? Which streaming services will people unsubscribe from? 31% 30% 23% 25% 17% 7% 8% 8% 4% 1% Netflix Amazon Prime Now TV ITV Hub All 4 Netflix Amazon Prime Maxdome Sky Ticket Zattoo AudienceProject Insights 2019 11 More than half of future Disney+ Future Disney+ subscribers in subscribers in Denmark will un- Sweden will primarily unsub- subscribe from existing services scribe from Netflix 21% 33% are considering subscribing to Disney+ when it is launched are considering subscribing to Disney+ when it is launched are considering unsubscribing from one or more of are considering unsubscribing from one or more of 55% their existing streaming services 48% their existing streaming services Which streaming services will people unsubscribe from? Which streaming services will people unsubscribe from? 33% 33% 22% 18% 18% 13% 13% 12% 10% 4% Netflix HBO Nordic Viaplay TV 2 Play C More Netflix Viaplay C More HBO Nordic TV4 Play 12 AudienceProject Insights 2019 More than half of future Disney+ Three quarters of future Disney+ subscribers in Norway will un- subscribers in Finland will un- subscribe from existing services subscribe from existing services 33% 23% are considering subscribing to Disney+ when it is launched are considering subscribing to Disney+ when it is launched are considering unsubscribing from one or more of are considering unsubscribing from one or more of 57% their existing streaming services 76% their existing streaming services Which streaming services will people unsubscribe from? Which streaming services will people unsubscribe from? 33% 43% 29% 24% 16% 15% 15% 14% 15% 15% Netflix TV2 Sumo HBO Nordic Dplay Viaplay Netflix HBO Nordic Ruutu C More MTV Katsomo AudienceProject Insights 2019 13 In the following pages, we will show how many are cur- rently subscribing to different streaming services and how many we can expect to be subscribing to different The number of Netflix subscribers streaming services after Disney+ is launched. in the US is expected to drop by 7% after the launch of Disney+ 70% Netflix 65% Amazon 62% Prime 61% 36% Hulu 34% 7% HBO Go 7% 7% HBO Now 6% The number of sub- The number of sub- scribers before the scribers expected after launch of Disney+ the launch of Disney+ 14 AudienceProject Insights 2019 Netflix is expected to see a large The launch of Disney+ is expect- drop in the number of UK subscrib- ed to have a high impact on Ama- ers after the launch of Disney+ zon Prime and Netflix in Germany 63% Amazon 45% Netflix 61% Prime 43% Amazon 47% 40% Netflix Prime 46% 38% 42% 8% ITV Hub Sky Ticket 41% 8% 35% 3% All 4 Maxdome 35% 3% 15% 2% Now TV Zattoo 15% 2% The number of sub- The number of sub- The number of sub- The number of sub- scribers before the scribers expected after scribers before the scribers expected after launch of Disney+ the launch of Disney+ launch of Disney+ the launch of Disney+ AudienceProject Insights 2019 15 The launch of Disney+ is expect- Netflix is expected to see a large ed to have a high impact on Net- drop in the number of Swedish sub- flix and HBO Nordic in Denmark scribers after the launch of Disney+ 49% 56% Netflix Netflix 46% 52% 23% 27% Viaplay Viaplay 22% 26% 23% 22% TV 2 Play C More 22% 21% HBO 20% 19% TV4 Play Nordic 18% 18% 6% HBO 18% C More 6% Nordic 17% The number of sub- The number of sub- The number of sub- The number of sub- scribers before the scribers expected after scribers before the scribers expected after launch of Disney+ the launch of Disney+ launch of Disney+ the launch of Disney+ 16 AudienceProject Insights 2019 The number of Netflix subscribers The launch of Disney+ is expect- in Norway is expected to drop by ed to have a high impact on all 8% after the launch of Disney+ the bigger services in Finland 63% 47% Netflix Netflix 58% 43% HBO 30% 30% Ruutu Nordic 28% 28% 23% HBO 22% Viaplay 22% Nordic 20% 20% MTV 22% TV2 Sumo 18% Katsomo 20% 11% 22% Dplay C More 9% 20% The number of sub- The number of sub- The number of sub- The number of sub- scribers before the scribers expected after scribers before the scribers expected after launch of Disney+ the launch of Disney+ launch of Disney+ the launch of Disney+ AudienceProject Insights 2019 17 18 AudienceProject Insights 2019 MEDIA USAGE Looking at the general media usage, we see that traditional TV viewing keeps dropping, while both the usage of connected TV boxes, online video viewing and streaming increases. As shown in the previous chapter, the launch of Disney+ is expected to have a high impact on the number of Netflix subscribers but for now, the number of Netflix users keeps on increasing. AudienceProject Insights 2019 19 US The US is leading the way in terms of streaming UK Germany Denmark [ How many watch traditional TV, how many watch TV via connected TV boxes, how many Sweden watch online video and how many stream or download TV, series or movies on a weekly basis? ] Norway Finland 86 84 % 81 % 80 80 79 % % % 76 75 75 % 73 % % % % 70 68 67 % % % 63 61 % % 59 57 % % 55 55 53 % % 50 % % 44 44 43 42 % % % % 35 31 % % 24 % Traditional TV Connected TV Online video Streaming 20 AudienceProject Insights 2019 Less than three quarters watch traditional TV on commercial TV channels [ How many watch traditional TV on commercial TV channels on a weekly basis? ] US UK Germany Watch traditional TV on commercial TV channels Don’t watch traditional TV 64% 64% 73% 73% 69% 69% on commercial TV channels watch traditional 35% watch traditional 26% watch traditional 30% TV on commercial 1% TV on commercial 0% TV on commercial 1% TV channels