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Greenhouse Gas and Climate Change Evaluation Greenhouse Gas and Climate Change Evaluation NorthMet Project Prepared for PolyMet Mining Inc. June 2012 Greenhouse Gas and Climate Change Evaluation NorthMet Project Prepared for PolyMet Mining Inc. June 2012 4700 West 77th Street Minneapolis, MN 55435-4803 Phone: (952) 832-2600 Fax: (952) 832-2601 Greenhouse Gas and Climate Change Evaluation June 2012 Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 Cumulative Effects ............................................................................................................................... 7 2.1. Background Information on Climate Change ............................................................................. 7 2.1.1. Climate Change and GHGs in Federal and State Policy and Law ................................. 7 2.1.1.1 Federal Policy and Law ................................................................................... 7 2.1.1.2 Minnesota State Policy and Law ................................................................... 14 2.1.1.3 Applicability of GHG Permitting Requirements to Project .......................... 15 2.1.2. The Science of Climate Change ................................................................................... 17 2.1.2.1 Climate Change Overview ............................................................................ 17 2.1.2.2 Causes of Climate Change ............................................................................ 18 2.1.2.3 Historic temperature trends ........................................................................... 23 2.1.2.4 Historic trends and projections of GHG emissions ....................................... 32 2.1.2.5 Uncertainty in Climate Change Projection .................................................... 40 2.1.2.6 Projected Environmental Effects of Climate Change in Minnesota .............. 41 2.2. Proposed Project and Climate Change ...................................................................................... 51 2.2.1. Wetlands ...................................................................................................................... 53 2.2.2. Water Resources .......................................................................................................... 54 2.2.3. Air Quality ................................................................................................................... 56 2.2.4. Threatened, Endangered, and Special Concern Wildlife and Plants ............................ 58 2.2.5. Cover Types and Carbon Cycle Impacts ...................................................................... 59 2.2.5.1 Background ................................................................................................... 59 2.2.5.2 Project Impacts on Cover Types ................................................................... 62 2.2.5.3 Planned Restoration Activities ...................................................................... 64 3.0 Project Alternatives ............................................................................................................................ 66 3.1. Carbon Footprint for Proposed Project ..................................................................................... 66 3.1.1. Direct and Indirect Industrial Emission Impacts .......................................................... 66 3.1.2. Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Impacts ................................................................................ 68 3.2. Alternatives Analysis: Hydrometallurgical vs. Pyrometallurgical Processing ......................... 72 3.3. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 73 4.0 GHG Reductions ................................................................................................................................. 74 4.1. Project GHG reduction measures .............................................................................................. 74 4.2. Alternative GHG reduction measures ....................................................................................... 75 i P:\Mpls\23 MN\69\2369862\WorkFiles\WO 009 Air\CO2 Footprint\Updated Report for SEIS\June 2012 Revised Report\GHG and Climate Change Evaluation v5 JUNE2012_shaded.docx 4.2.1. Biological carbon sequestration ................................................................................... 75 4.2.1.1 Afforestation.................................................................................................. 76 4.2.1.2 Wetland Sequestration ................................................................................... 76 4.2.1.3 Perennial Grassland ....................................................................................... 77 4.2.2. Carbon offset credits .................................................................................................... 77 4.3. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 77 ii List of Tables Table 1 Point Source Emissions Comparison to Major Source Level .......................................... 16 Table 2 Project GHG Emission Summary ................................................................................... 66 Table 3 Total Potential GHG Emissions Estimated over the lifetime of the project for the NorthMet Project Proposed to be Located near Hoyt Lakes, Minnesota ......................... 67 Table 4 Wetlands Carbon Cycle Impacts Summary .................................................................... 69 Table 5 Forest Carbon Cycle Impacts Summary ......................................................................... 71 Table 6 Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Annual Impacts Summary....................................................... 72 List of Figures Figure 1 NorthMet Project Property Boundaries ............................................................................ 6 Figure 2 Diagram of the greenhouse effect .................................................................................. 19 Figure 3 Global temperature trends from the instrumental record ................................................. 26 Figure 4 Temperature anomaly in the lower 48 states, 1901-2009 ................................................ 27 Figure 5 Seasonal Temperature Trends for U.S. over the instrumental period in Degrees Fahrenheit29 Figure 6 1997-2006 average temperatures deviation from 1970-2000 normal ............................... 30 Figure 7 Temperature trends for winter and summer seasons in Minnesota 1895-2010 ................. 31 Figure 8 Global trends in GHG levels derived from paleo-proxy and instrumental records for the past several thousand years. ........................................................................................... 33 Figure 9 Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions 1850 through 2010; predicted emissions extended to 2030 .......................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 10 IPCC SRES Projections ................................................................................................. 35 Figure 11 U.S. Carbon emissions 1800-2004 ................................................................................. 37 Figure 12 GHG Emissions in Minnesota: 1970-2008 ..................................................................... 39 Figure 13 Great Lakes Region observed and projected average surface temperature ...................... 43 Figure 14 Projected summer and winter temperature changes 2070-2099 ....................................... 44 Figure 15 Observed and projected daily average precipitation for summer and winter seasons in the Great Lakes Region ....................................................................................................... 46 Figure 16 Projected change in frequency of heavy rainfall events in the Great Lakes Region ......... 47 Figure 17 Potential climate change impacts on Minnesota’s forests ............................................... 49 iii List of Appendices Appendix A NorthMet Project Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory & Energy and Efficiency Analysis Appendix B Website References Used in This Report iv 1.0 Introduction The first draft of a greenhouse gas (GHG) and climate change evaluation report was prepared and submitted in March of 2009 in support of the NorthMet Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS). Comments on this draft were received from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MDNR). A second draft of the report was submitted in June of 2009 to address comments on the initial draft. In early March 2011 PolyMet and Barr proposed the scope of its planned updated carbon footprint analysis for the Supplemental Draft Environmental Impact Statement (SDEIS) primarily aimed at aligning the report with draft guidance issued by the White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) in February 2010 for addressing climate change and GHGs under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The final scope was developed through the Impact Assessment Planning (IAP) process by the Air IAP group. Notable changes and updates to the June 2009 submittal included in this report are as follows: • Emission estimates have been expanded to address
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