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ZEEB ROAD, ANN ARBOR, Ml 48106 18 BEDFORD ROW, LONDON WC1 R 4EJ, ENGLAND 8027512 DILLON, CONNIE LEE GREB EDUCATION FOR THE FUTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY The University of Oklahoma PH.D. I98O University Microfilms I ntern Sti 0 n si 300 N. Zeet Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106 Copyright by DILLON, CONNIE LEE GREB All Rights Reserved PLEASE NOTE: In all cases this material has been filmed in the best possible way from the available copy. Problems encountered with this document have been identified here with a check mark . 1. Glossy photographs 2. Colored illustrations 3. Photographs with dark background 4. Illustrations are poor copy____ 5. °rint shows through as there is text on both sides of page 6. Indistinct, broken or small print on several pagesy 7. Tightly bound copy with print lost in spine 8. Computer printout pages with indistinct print 9. Page(s) lacking when material received, and not available from school or author 10. Page(s)________seem to be missing in numbering only as text follows 11. Poor carbon copy________ 12. Not original copy, several pages with blurred type 13. Appendix pages are poor ________copy 14. Original copy with light type________ 15. Curling and wrinkled pages_______ 16. Other UniversiN Micionlms Internationa} 300 \ 2=== 30.. ANN AR30fi N/11 J8106'313: 761-4700 THE UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE EDUCATION FOR THE FUTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE COLLEGE in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY BY CONNIE GREB DILLON No rman, Oklahoma 1980 EDUCATION FOR THE FUTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY APPROVED BY 4^ DIS^RTATION COMMITTEE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The writer would like to express her sincere appreciation to Dr. Jay Smith and Dr. John Pulliam for their support and encouragement in the direction of this study. Appreciation is also expressed to Dr. Tillman Ragan, Dr. James Healey, Dr. Lloyd Korhonen, and Dr. Thomas Wiggins for their valuable suggestions, criticisms, and encouragement through out the study. The writer would like to express a personal note of apprecia tion to her husband, Dave, and her parents Mervin and Wanda Greb for their understanding, patience, support and sacrifice, with out which this study could not have been completed. 1 X 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF T A B L E S .......................................... vi CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION .................................... 1 Preface Background of the Study Statement of the Problem Significance of the Study Delimitation of the Study II. EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY: HOW WE GOT HERE AND NOW WHAT? ........................... Introduction Educational Technology: A Maturing Profession Technology in the Making Technology: For Better or For Worse III. DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY: AN ETHNOGRAPHIC APPROACH TO CONTENT ANALYSIS ........................... 24 Content Analysis Described The Logical-Positivist Approach: A Critique Ethnographic Techniques Described A Description of Documentation: An Ethnographic Technique An Ethnographic Approach to Content Analysis: An Alternative IV. A CONTENT ANALYSIS OF FOURTEEN SELECTED FUTURISTS BOOKS .......................................... 39 Preliminary Matrices (Set 1) and Development of Subcategories The Matrices: An Overview The Futurists: A Closer Look The What and Why of Education Positive Uses of Technology IV V. A CONTENT ANALYSIS OF RESEARCH IN EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY: PERSPECTIVE FROM THE FUTURE .... 83 Attributes of Educational Technology Educational Technology Attributes and Their Relation to the Future The Educational Technology Categories Defined VI. RESULTS AND D I S C U S S I O N .............................. 96 Results of the Analysis Discussion Summary BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................ 115 GLOSSARY ...................................................... 119 APPENDIX A ................................................... 120 APPENDIX B ................................................... 125 APPENDIX C ................................................... 128 APPENDIX D ................................................... 170 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Relationship of Futurist Trends and Means ................ 41-42 2. Futurist Subcategories: Trends in Society and the F a m i l y ................................................. 43-44 3. Futurist Subcategories: Individual Trends ............. 45 4. Futurist Subcategories: Trends in Education ............. 46 5. Futurist Subcategories: Means ......................... 47 6. Futurist Subcategories: Ends of E d u c a t i o n ............. 79 7. The Relationship of Education Technology Attributes and Futurists M e a n s ..................................... 87-90 vx EDUCATION FOR THE FUTURE; IMPLICATIONS FOR EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Preface The future cannot be forecast but it can be explored. — E. F. Schumacher, SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL As the rate of change increases, it becomes important for society's institutions not only to stay abreast of change, but to keep ahead of change. Only in this way can individuals exercise any influence in the direction of their lives. It jthe futur^ is at least partly subject to our influence, and our interest must therefore focus on "preferable" futures as well as those that are "possible" and "probable". (Toffler, 1974, p. xxv) There is, however, doubt concerning the ability of our institutions to do this. Rather than outpacing change, our institutions seem to lag behind. This is particularly true of education. ...technological and social change is outracing the educa tional system, and that social reality is transforming itself more rapidly than our educational images of that reality. (Toff1er, 1972, p. xxiv) Education may well hold the key to human survival and human prosperity. 2 Technology is currently blamed for many of the ills which threaten the human race. It may, however, prove to be an invaluable resource, if only it is used with caution. The primary task of technology, it would seem, is to lighten the burden or work that man has to carry in order to stay alive and develop his potential. (Schumacher, 1973, p. 148) Educational technology is based on the belief that technology can be used in the resolution of a variety of instructional problems. Educational technology is a field involved in the facili tation of human learning through the systematic identifi cation, development, organization and utilization of a full range of resources, and through the management of those resources. (Hug, 1978, p. 3) Background of the Study Many professionals in our field have written about our place in the future. Many have given their ideas about what should be done. However, this author has found no systematic study of the future in terms of its implications for educational technology. Chapter II focuses upon three points worthy of consideration. What are the issues confronting educational technology as it enters adulthood? What are some of the technological developments which will likely impact educa tional technology? And, finally are we willing to consider both the positive and the negative capabilities of our technological developments? Mierzwa in his dissertation entitled A Critical Analysis of Selected Aspects of the Interaction Among Science, Technology and Society; Implications for Education made this statement : Thus given the fact that the schools are increasingly being attacked for the supposed failure to provide education adequate for coping with certain problems, I believe that "radical" critiques of education should receive careful attention. For example,