"“Patterns and trends in perceptions of the Left Bank of Nistru river Residents' on the Economic, Social and Political Situation on the Left and Right Banks of the Nistru.
A five years retrospective (2008-2012)”
This project is funded by the European Union 1 This project is implemented by CReDO. 2 Name of the unit Number of respondents 2008 Camenca district, Camenca city 25 Camenca district, Podoima village 14 Dubasari district, Dubasari city 26 Dubasari district, Gromadscoe village 30 Grigoriopol district, Sipca village 25 Grigoriopol district, Malaiesti village 10 Ribnita district, Ribnita city 19 Slobozia district, Cioburci city 30 Slobozia district, Blijnii Hutor village 25 Tiraspol city, Tiraspol district 35 239
2009 Camenca district, Camenca city 35 Cocieri district, Cocieri city 18 Dubasari district, Dubasari city 25 Dubasari district, Corjova city 20 Dubasari district, Cosnita village 20 Dubasari district, Molovata village 15 Grigoriopol district, Grigoriopol city 30 Ribnita district, Ribnita city 35 Slobozia district, Slobozia city 10 Tiraspol city, Tiraspol district 67 Tighina city, Tighina rayon 35 Varnita district, Varnita city 88 Ribnita district, Popencu village 7 Camenca district, Rascov village 15 Camenca district, Hrusca village 15 4353 2010 Camenca district, Camenca city 35 Camenca district, Solnichnoe village 18 Causeni district, Grigoriorovca city 32 Cocieri district, Cocieri city 30 Dubasari district, Dubasari city 18 Causeni district, Cremenciug village 35 Dubasari district, Corjova city 20 Dubasari district, Cosnita village 20 Dubasari district, Molovata village 15 Ocnita district, Ocnita city 20 Slobozia district, Slobozia city 50 Tiraspol city, Tiraspol district 66 Camenca district, Rascov village 35 Tighina city, Tighina rayon 88 Tighina city, Tighina rayon 15 Varnita district, Anenii Noi city 15 Grigoriopol district, Teiu village 18 Grigoriopol district, Speia village 18 Grigoriopol district, Taslic village 18 566 SUB-TOTAL NUMBER OF RESPONDENTS IN THE SAMPLE 12404 Name of the unit Number of respondents 2011 Camenca district, Camenca city 52 Ribnita district, Ribnita city 130 Dubasari district, Dubasari city 66 Tighina 104 Grigoriopol district, Grigoriopol city 87 Slobozia district, Slobozia city 87 Tiraspol city, Tiraspol district 137 Sub-total number of respondents in the sample 663 Sub-total 1903 2012 Camenca district, Camenca city 50 Slobozia district, Blijnii Hutor village 25 Ribnita district, Ribnita city 50 Tiraspol city, Tiraspol district 47 Grigoriopol district, Taslic village 11 Dubasaridistrict, Cocieri city 15 Dubasari district, Corjova city 31 Dubasari district, Dubasari city 49 Camenca district, Rascov village 45 Grigoriopol district, Teiu village 23 Grigoriopol district, Speia village 18 Grigoriopol district, Glinoe village 30 Grigoriopol district, Grigoriopol city 37
Tighina district, Tighina city 8 Sub-total number of respondents in the sample 523 TOTAL 2426 The survey was based on the desire and need to know the situation of the people on the other bank of the Dniester:
• Social: What is their opinion about the people from the right bank? How often do they travel to the right bank? For what purposes? Would they like to have more opportunities for cooperation with people from the right bank? • Economic-Political: What are the problems that they face on a daily basis? What is their economic standing? Do they have access to the necessary social services? What is their attitude towards the leadership? • Overall, what is the “mood” and atmosphere on the other bank, as seen by ordinary people?
6 Tested hypothesis:
- interests of the population on left side;
- issue of language (one language) – relation to the conflict, tension;
- relationships with the relatives throughout time;
- knowledge about the other bank;
- degree of cooperation with the bank;
- various social/cultural contacts and events is welcomed on both sides;
- trust and attitude towards leadership, etc
7 Challenges and externalities
- difficult for data collectors to freely circulate and interview respondents;
- constrains on sampling methodology on the left side of Nistru river;
- risk of personal security of the operators, once identified.
8 Methodology Procedure: - to go in the village/city and to select a proportionate number of female/male, different ages and social strata, from the center, and next, from the periphery of the village/city. - field operators interact with respondents from the post offices, food shops, high schools in the center and ordinary farmers from the periphery. Errors & Mitigation: - Selecting the respondents generates a series of sampling of errors; - Impossibility of controlling the data collectors; - Mitigated by substantial instruction of operators and high mutual trust established between well-selected operators;
Validation: The data from the samples is aggregated and triangulated to the most recent socio-demographic indicators (most recent accessible Yearly Statistics Book from the region is 2006/2007) to follow a common pattern of the real and sample population. 9 Socio-demographic data
10 Respondents by sex (%)
49.22% 50.78%
Female Male feminin masculin
11 Respondents by education (%)
.042%
4.2% 4%2%
17.51% 21.7%
30.94% 19.23%
doctoratPhD masterMasters studiiHigher superioareeducation complete scoalaVocational profesionalatraining High school Gymnasium (1-9th form) studii liceale (12 clase) studii gimnaziale (1-9 clase) No education Do not know/no answer fara studii ns nr 12 Respondents by occupation (%)
0.4%
6% 11.63% 11.09%
20.07%
17.26%
11.38% 12.87% 8.982%
Public sector Private sector angajat sector public angajat sector privat Non-governmental sector Entrepreneur angajat sector non-guvernamental liber intreprinzator Unemployed Pensioner somer pensionar Student Housework student casnic Other altceva 13 Respondenţs by ethnic origin (%)
0.01% 0.04% 0.02% 17.57% 2% 1%
53.26% 27.6%
romanaRomanian moldoveneascaMoldovian rusaRussian ucraineanaUkrainean Bulgarian Gagauz bulgara gagauza Other No answer alta_ nu raspund 14 Hold passport of (%)..
1% 1.62% 5.787%
13.43% 39.81% 0.2%
38.43%
Republica Moldova Transnistriei Romaniei Rusiei Ucraina a Moldovei si a Transnistriei nu raspund 15 Language spoken: 60 Romanian
51 50,31 Moldovian 50 47 48,28 49,26 Russian 41,81 Ukrainean 40,23 40 38,49 Bulgarian Gagauz 33,4 32,56 30,24 30
17,7 17,68 20 16,07 13,52 9,97 10,9 9,54 10 7,55 10,57 7,65 4,43 4,43 1 1,56 2,32 0,27 0,18 0,97 0,63 0 Native Fluent Average Do not speak non-raspuns
16 Can you read/write in..
17 To what extent you are informed about… life on the right bench of Nistru river (%)?
40 34,67 Social 35 34,23 33,67 Politics 30 Economics 24,9 25 23,47 21,31 20,66 22,05 20 16,83 15,35 15 18,85 9,39 7,91 10 6,59 7,24 5 0,5 1 1 0 very sufficiently similarly less informed not informed I don't informed informed informed as at all know/no on the left answer bench
18 opinion poll results
the results of the research is the sole responsibility of the author, 19 www.CReDO.md Would you be interested to find out more about...from the right bench (*)
72 69 59,38 48,25 34
7
Standard of living Education Health Business Agriculture Other
People on the left bench would be interested to know more about: -The Standard of living on the right bench (72 %) -Business (69%) -Health services (59%) -Education services (48%) -Agriculture (34%) In the last 3-5 years, what is your opinion about the relationship between people on both benches (%)…
80 became worse did not change improved else I don't know/no answer 70 74,12 63,56 60 57,86 58,6 52,12 50 39,22 40
30 24,36 20 21,28 20 10,71 14,29 14,7 9,29 9,95 9,5 10 5,54 3,36 0,71 0,180,18 1,98 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 21 What is your opinion about … (%)
positive 100 89,82 90 indifferent 79,53 80 negative 70 60 50 40,94 40,06 40 39,49 30 26,23 30,96 20 16,06 14,75 8,39 10 3,68 1,17 0 inhabitants of right government, right inhabitants of left government, left bench bench bench bench
- Generally a positive attitude towards the population on the right river bench, and left side persists in time. * A indifferent to negative attitude towards the governments of both sides.
About 2,355 out of 2426 respondents answered to this question. 22 positive 120 indifferent positive indifferent negative ns/nr negative 98,56 100 91,62 ns/nr 120 98,38 80 100 97,25 70,38 91,92 65,86 80 76,44 60 68,67 41,99 60 40 29 31,45 23,81 26,54 40 25,32 20 18,24 7,47 20 2,42 2,31 5,58 7,88 0,720,72 0,91 2,31 1,080,54 2,440,15 0,19 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 23 What is your attitude towards leadership from right bench of Nistru river (by years) positive indifferent negative 90 82,73 ns/nr 80 67,02 70 60 50 45,11 44,81 40 31,89 29,89 29,23 30 21,2 20,96 16,2218,38 18,47 20 11,33 13,89 10 5,22 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
24 What is your attitude towards leadership from the same bench (by years) positive indifferent negative 90 82,37 ns/nr 80 70 64,53 60 48,27 50 40,42 41,54 40 34,3335,82 28,41 30 24,94 22,32 17,41 20 12,84 11,15 9,04 10 5,58 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The pattern over time is not very consistent, however few facts can be observed. An interesting finding of the study is generally the respondents have an indifferent to negative attitude towards the that after the government on both sides of the river. However, in time, particularly in 2010, they expressed a strong negative opinion, which we assume is related to the protests in April. Do you think there is any tension between people from the right and left bench of Nistru river?
da nu nu stiu/nu raspund 15,88
44,35
39,77
Positive attitude towards the population on both sides of the river does not imply that no tension exists. Almost a half of our sample see a particular tension between people (45%) and this mainly because of the Status of Transnistria, because of lack of negociation and discussions between the governments, and also due to previous involvement in army conflicts (see more reasons, next slide).
2,223 din 2426 respondenţi au răspuns la această întrebare 26 Do you think there is some tension between people from the right and left bench of Nistru river? (by years) yes no no answer/do not know 70 65,83 63,11 60 58,33
49,65 50 46,15 46,08
40 36,01
30 28,35 27,03 25
20 16,67 17,91
10 8,54 7,14 4,2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 27 Attitude: if your answer is yes, indicate the reason Spoken language 2,3 1,69 Transnistria Status 27,27 29,86 Socio-economic differences in development Different geopolotical trends
21,64 Mass-media lack of objectivity
52,73 Administrative barriers on both sides Lack of 22,82 negociations/discussions Involvement in the past in the conflict 12,4 13,09 Other 22,43 Do not know/No answer
28 How often do you go on the other side of the river? 3,2
12,19
daily 24,68 weekly 16,78 monthly yearly never
40,36
•About 30% have weekly and daily visits to right bank of Nistru;
•Monthly visits are more frequent, 40%
•Almost 25% visit right bench once per year or never (3.2%); 29 1100 of 2426 respondents answered to this question Do you have relatives on the right bank of Nistru river?
4,15
28,11 yes no no answer/do not know
65,44
30 What are the motives for traveling across the river?
1,82 Work 4,78 9,46 13,08 Shopping
21,97 Tourism 21,82 Visiting relatives
Documents, pension 11,72 recepience/processing 26,69 Studies
Land work
Transiting 61,95 Other
!About 62% of the population from the left bench travel to the right bench to visit their31 relatives. Where do you usually get medical assistance?
In my village/city 16,5
13,79 In the rayon 75,23 24,59 in Tiraspol
in Chişinău 26,15 Somewhere else in Moldova no answer/do not know 56
Most of the medical services are accessed on the left bench, and about 45% 62% of the population from the left bench travel to the right bench to visit their relatives. 32 What medical services do you usually use the most? medicul de familie 13,33 medicul specialist 17,02 servicii 63,35 cosmetologice
19,26 servicii stomatologice
8,51 produse farmaceutice
alte servicii
67,89 33 Over the past 5 years the relationship with these relatives:
0,880,331,87
5,38
became worse did not change improved else I don't know/no answer
75,05
34 Do you think that at the basis of the Moldovan-Transnistrian relations the interests of certain groups lies: Which?: Conducerii Transnsitrei 17 20 23 41 Conducerii Republicii Moldova 47 27 Conducerii Federaţiei Ruse Conducerii Ucrainei 29 37 Conducerii României
24 NATO 46 26 Uniunii Europene 26 25 23 Grupuri business din Federaţia Rusă
At this question, respondents could answer multi-optional. Most of the respondents agreed that at the basis of moldovan-transnistrian relations lies the interest of certain groups, as: -The government of Republic of Moldova (47%) -- The government of Ukraine (46%) - The government of Transnistria (41%)
-The government of Russia (37%) 35 -and relative equally the rest of other actors. To what extent you are interested in the .. events happening in..(%)?
26,53 28,6 26,23 32,09 Moldova Moldova Ucraine Ucraine Russia Russia 31,75 30,39
political social
41 38,95 Moldova Ucraine Russia 39,56 economic 36 Do you think that the population on the right bench is (%)..
37 Benefits from cheaper products (food, house equipment) Has posibility to travel abroad 7 fully agree fully agree 19 12 partially agree 30 partially agree 37 20 disagree disagree 32 no answer/do no answer/do not 39 Benefits from access to not know know more diverse sources of Civil society and business information more developed
fully agree fully agree 11 30 25 partially agree 30 partially agree 16
disagree disagree 19 no answer/do 24 no answer/do 39 not know not know38 Better security Greater international support fully agree 19 34 partially agree fully agree 27 disagree 39 25 no answer/do partially 21 not know 8 agree 24 Other 1 0
10 fully agree
partially agree
disagree
no answer/do not 50 know
39 Lives better Has higher income
total de acoed total de acoed 9 14 20 partial de acord 26 partial de acord 20 33 deloc de acord deloc de acord 37 nu stiu/nu 37 nu stiu/nu raspund raspund
Has better access to medical Has better education services services
total de acoed total de acoed 7 10 partial de 10 partial de acord 41 14 37 acord deloc de deloc de acord acord nu stiu/nu 41 39 nu stiu/nu raspund raspund 40 Right bench = better health & education • Generally, the population on the left side expressed that to some extent the population on the right bench live better because of: - Better health service, (41%) - Better educational services (37%) - And stronger international support (39%). Also, about 30% respondents strongly agree that the population on the right bench have better sources of information, have more chances to travel abroad and their businesses and civil
organizations are developed more. 41 Right bench = better living? On the other hand, 37% of respondents disagree that the products for household consumptions are cheaper on the right bench, nor do they agree that the right bench river have better living than the left (33%) – although 37% partially agree with the last statement. Also, about 37% partially agree that the population on the right bench have higher income.
42 In general, are you satisfied of (%)..
Previous criticism on the living on the left bench, has been strengthen with the previous question results.
Most of the population on the left bench are not happy with -the level of life on the left bench (49%) - the respect for human rights (46%) -Freedom of expression (46%) -And political stability in the region (55%)
43 Political stability in the Level of life region 2 12 satisfied satisfied 29 10
partially satisfied partially 29 34 satisfied unsatisfied 55 unsatisfied no answer/do not 49 know
Freedom of expression Respect for human rights
4 satisfied 3 17 17 satisfied partially partially satisfied satisfied unsatisfied 46 unsatisfied 46 32 32 no answer/do not no answer/do know not know 44 Conclusion 1 • !One of the most interesting findings of this study is that the respondents of a sample of 2355 have positive attitude towards the inhabitants of both benches of Nistru river; and the positive relationship in the last 5 years does not seem to have changed, as the graph on previous slide indicates. • Similarly, this is valid for their relatives. As most of inhabitants travel to the right bench to visit their relatives, the relationship with their relatives did not change over the last 5 years. • At the same time, a tension between people on both sides exists according to the opinion of less than a half of our respondents. This is because of the following reasons: • - 1) Status of Transnistria • - 2) Previous involvement in army conflict • 3) Language spoken • 4) Administrative barriers on both sides • 5) Lack of negociation and discussion (to be considered that the last survey was carried out before new negociation started, e.g. in Vienna, Dublin) and to less extent, but also due to lack reliance on mass-media and difference in socio-economic developments. 45 Conclusion 2 • Generally the population on the left bench shows a discontent with respect to their living standards on the left bench, but also with respect to public life. • About a half of our sample sees a political instability in the region that affects their life; freedom of expression and respect for human rights is not satisfactory on the left bench, the results of our survey shows. • Despite of having an indifferent (to negative) attitude towards the government on the right and left bench, most of the respondents agreed that at the core of the Moldo-Transnistrian relationship the interests of Republic of Moldova, Ukraine and Russia in the first place are at stake, followed by the rest of international stakeholders (NATO, EU, etc.). • Overall, people on the left bench have a positive attitude towards people on the right bench and are willing to know more about the Standard of living on the right bench (72 %); Business (69%); Health services (59%); Education services (48%) ; Agriculture (34%) from the right bench.
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