"“Patterns and trends in perceptions of the Left Bank of Nistru river Residents' on the Economic, Social and Political Situation on the Left and Right Banks of the Nistru. A five years retrospective (2008-2012)” This project is funded by the European Union 1 This project is implemented by CReDO. 2 Name of the unit Number of respondents 2008 Camenca district, Camenca city 25 Camenca district, Podoima village 14 Dubasari district, Dubasari city 26 Dubasari district, Gromadscoe village 30 Grigoriopol district, Sipca village 25 Grigoriopol district, Malaiesti village 10 Ribnita district, Ribnita city 19 Slobozia district, Cioburci city 30 Slobozia district, Blijnii Hutor village 25 Tiraspol city, Tiraspol district 35 239 2009 Camenca district, Camenca city 35 Cocieri district, Cocieri city 18 Dubasari district, Dubasari city 25 Dubasari district, Corjova city 20 Dubasari district, Cosnita village 20 Dubasari district, Molovata village 15 Grigoriopol district, Grigoriopol city 30 Ribnita district, Ribnita city 35 Slobozia district, Slobozia city 10 Tiraspol city, Tiraspol district 67 Tighina city, Tighina rayon 35 Varnita district, Varnita city 88 Ribnita district, Popencu village 7 Camenca district, Rascov village 15 Camenca district, Hrusca village 15 4353 2010 Camenca district, Camenca city 35 Camenca district, Solnichnoe village 18 Causeni district, Grigoriorovca city 32 Cocieri district, Cocieri city 30 Dubasari district, Dubasari city 18 Causeni district, Cremenciug village 35 Dubasari district, Corjova city 20 Dubasari district, Cosnita village 20 Dubasari district, Molovata village 15 Ocnita district, Ocnita city 20 Slobozia district, Slobozia city 50 Tiraspol city, Tiraspol district 66 Camenca district, Rascov village 35 Tighina city, Tighina rayon 88 Tighina city, Tighina rayon 15 Varnita district, Anenii Noi city 15 Grigoriopol district, Teiu village 18 Grigoriopol district, Speia village 18 Grigoriopol district, Taslic village 18 566 SUB-TOTAL NUMBER OF RESPONDENTS IN THE SAMPLE 12404 Name of the unit Number of respondents 2011 Camenca district, Camenca city 52 Ribnita district, Ribnita city 130 Dubasari district, Dubasari city 66 Tighina 104 Grigoriopol district, Grigoriopol city 87 Slobozia district, Slobozia city 87 Tiraspol city, Tiraspol district 137 Sub-total number of respondents in the sample 663 Sub-total 1903 2012 Camenca district, Camenca city 50 Slobozia district, Blijnii Hutor village 25 Ribnita district, Ribnita city 50 Tiraspol city, Tiraspol district 47 Grigoriopol district, Taslic village 11 Dubasaridistrict, Cocieri city 15 Dubasari district, Corjova city 31 Dubasari district, Dubasari city 49 Camenca district, Rascov village 45 Grigoriopol district, Teiu village 23 Grigoriopol district, Speia village 18 Grigoriopol district, Glinoe village 30 Grigoriopol district, Grigoriopol city 37 Tighina district, Tighina city 8 Sub-total number of respondents in the sample 523 TOTAL 2426 The survey was based on the desire and need to know the situation of the people on the other bank of the Dniester: • Social: What is their opinion about the people from the right bank? How often do they travel to the right bank? For what purposes? Would they like to have more opportunities for cooperation with people from the right bank? • Economic-Political: What are the problems that they face on a daily basis? What is their economic standing? Do they have access to the necessary social services? What is their attitude towards the leadership? • Overall, what is the “mood” and atmosphere on the other bank, as seen by ordinary people? 6 Tested hypothesis: - interests of the population on left side; - issue of language (one language) – relation to the conflict, tension; - relationships with the relatives throughout time; - knowledge about the other bank; - degree of cooperation with the bank; - various social/cultural contacts and events is welcomed on both sides; - trust and attitude towards leadership, etc 7 Challenges and externalities - difficult for data collectors to freely circulate and interview respondents; - constrains on sampling methodology on the left side of Nistru river; - risk of personal security of the operators, once identified. 8 Methodology Procedure: - to go in the village/city and to select a proportionate number of female/male, different ages and social strata, from the center, and next, from the periphery of the village/city. - field operators interact with respondents from the post offices, food shops, high schools in the center and ordinary farmers from the periphery. Errors & Mitigation: - Selecting the respondents generates a series of sampling of errors; - Impossibility of controlling the data collectors; - Mitigated by substantial instruction of operators and high mutual trust established between well-selected operators; Validation: The data from the samples is aggregated and triangulated to the most recent socio-demographic indicators (most recent accessible Yearly Statistics Book from the region is 2006/2007) to follow a common pattern of the real and sample population. 9 Socio-demographic data 10 Respondents by sex (%) 49.22% 50.78% Female Male feminin masculin 11 Respondents by education (%) .042% 4.2% 4%2% 17.51% 21.7% 30.94% 19.23% doctoratPhD masterMasters studiiHigher superioareeducation complete scoalaVocational profesionalatraining High school Gymnasium (1-9th form) studii liceale (12 clase) studii gimnaziale (1-9 clase) No education Do not know/no answer fara studii ns nr 12 Respondents by occupation (%) 0.4% 6% 11.63% 11.09% 20.07% 17.26% 11.38% 12.87% 8.982% Public sector Private sector angajat sector public angajat sector privat Non-governmental sector Entrepreneur angajat sector non-guvernamental liber intreprinzator Unemployed Pensioner somer pensionar Student Housework student casnic Other altceva 13 Respondenţs by ethnic origin (%) 0.01% 0.04% 0.02% 17.57% 2% 1% 53.26% 27.6% romanaRomanian moldoveneascaMoldovian rusaRussian ucraineanaUkrainean Bulgarian Gagauz bulgara gagauza Other No answer alta_ nu raspund 14 Hold passport of (%).. 1% 1.62% 5.787% 13.43% 39.81% 0.2% 38.43% Republica Moldova Transnistriei Romaniei Rusiei Ucraina a Moldovei si a Transnistriei nu raspund 15 Language spoken: 60 Romanian 51 50,31 Moldovian 50 47 48,28 49,26 Russian 41,81 Ukrainean 40,23 40 38,49 Bulgarian Gagauz 33,4 32,56 30,24 30 17,7 17,68 20 16,07 13,52 9,97 10,9 9,54 10 7,55 10,57 7,65 4,43 4,43 1 1,56 2,32 0,27 0,18 0,97 0,63 0 Native Fluent Average Do not speak non-raspuns 16 Can you read/write in.. 17 To what extent you are informed about… life on the right bench of Nistru river (%)? 40 34,67 Social 35 34,23 33,67 Politics 30 Economics 24,9 25 23,47 21,31 20,66 22,05 20 16,83 15,35 15 18,85 9,39 7,91 10 6,59 7,24 5 0,5 1 1 0 very sufficiently similarly less informed not informed I don't informed informed informed as at all know/no on the left answer bench 18 opinion poll results the results of the research is the sole responsibility of the author, 19 www.CReDO.md Would you be interested to find out more about...from the right bench (*) 72 69 59,38 48,25 34 7 Standard of living Education Health Business Agriculture Other People on the left bench would be interested to know more about: -The Standard of living on the right bench (72 %) -Business (69%) -Health services (59%) -Education services (48%) -Agriculture (34%) In the last 3-5 years, what is your opinion about the relationship between people on both benches (%)… 80 became worse did not change improved else I don't know/no answer 70 74,12 63,56 60 57,86 58,6 52,12 50 39,22 40 30 24,36 20 21,28 20 10,71 14,29 14,7 9,29 9,95 9,5 10 5,54 3,36 0,71 0,180,18 1,98 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 21 What is your opinion about … (%) positive 100 89,82 90 indifferent 79,53 80 negative 70 60 50 40,94 40,06 40 39,49 30 26,23 30,96 20 16,06 14,75 8,39 10 3,68 1,17 0 inhabitants of right government, right inhabitants of left government, left bench bench bench bench - Generally a positive attitude towards the population on the right river bench, and left side persists in time. * A indifferent to negative attitude towards the governments of both sides. About 2,355 out of 2426 respondents answered to this question. 22 positive 120 indifferent positive indifferent negative ns/nr negative 98,56 100 91,62 ns/nr 120 98,38 80 100 97,25 70,38 91,92 65,86 80 76,44 60 68,67 41,99 60 40 29 31,45 23,81 26,54 40 25,32 20 18,24 7,47 20 2,42 2,31 5,58 7,88 0,720,72 0,91 2,31 1,080,54 2,440,15 0,19 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 23 What is your attitude towards leadership from right bench of Nistru river (by years) positive indifferent negative 90 82,73 ns/nr 80 67,02 70 60 50 45,11 44,81 40 31,89 29,89 29,23 30 21,2 20,96 16,2218,38 18,47 20 11,33 13,89 10 5,22 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 24 What is your attitude towards leadership from the same bench (by years) positive indifferent negative 90 82,37 ns/nr 80 70 64,53 60 48,27 50 40,42 41,54 40 34,3335,82 28,41 30 24,94 22,32 17,41 20 12,84 11,15 9,04 10 5,58 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 The pattern over time is not very consistent, however few facts can be observed.