World Bank Document

PHN Technical Note 85-8 Public Disclosure Authorized DEVZLOPI%E-T CONSEQUENCES OF RAPID POPULATION GROWJT: Public Disclosure Authorized A REVIEW FROM TEE PERSPECTIVE OF SMB-SAHARAN AP:RICA by Susan H. Cochraae Public Disclosure Authorized July 1985 Population, Health and Nutrition DepartLment World Bank IThe World Bank does not accept responsibility for the views expressed herein which are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the World Bank or to i ts affiliated crganizations. The findings, interpretations, and coclusiolns are the restults of research supported by the Bank; they do not Public Disclosure Authorized necessarily repr:esent offi cial policy of -he Bank. The designations employed,t the preseatation of material, and any maps used in this document are solely ror the convenience of the reader and do not imply the expression of any opinion whlatsoever on the part of the World Bank or its af f iliates concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, area, or of its authorities, or concernaing the delimitations of its boundaries, or national affiliation, PHN Technical Note 85-8 DEVELOPMENT CONSEQUENCES OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH: A REVIEW FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA A B S T R A C T The purpose of this paper is to review Africans' perceptions of the relationship between population growth and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa. Even in the late 1960s there existed some concern for the negative consequences of population growth, but there also existed anger and frustration with simplistic visions of the role of population in economic development. In this paper, an attempt is made to discuss the conceptual issues involved in evaluating the effect of rapid population growth on the achievement of development objectives, document perceptions of these efforts in sub-Saharan Africa and review the attempt to quantify the effects of population growth in sub-Saharan Africa. There is a considerable difference of opinion in sub-Saharan Africa about the positive and negative consequences of population growth. These differences arise from many sources. In part, they reflect actual differences within sub-Saharan Africa in the degree of population pressure. There has also existed the view that while sub-Saharan Africa could absorb large increases in -population in the long run, the problem of providing for population growth in the short run might be quite formidable. Finally, perceptions differ because of the different intellectual traditions or political orientation in the many countries of Africa. Given the diversity of actual economic circumstances, the differences in government's commitment to basic needs and differences in the world view of African thinkers, there can be no simple summation of the African perspective of the development conse'quences of rapid population growth. There is, however, considerable recognition of the complexity of the issues involved and there is growing awareness if not acceptance of the limited ability of most African governments to cope with rapid population growth given recent poor economic performance. What can be done about the problem, given that individuals seem to want very large families, is a question which plagues many of those who recognize the riegative effects of population growth. * * *- * * * * * * * * Prepared by: Susan H. Cochrane Population, Health and Nutrition Department July 1985 Development Consequences of Rapid Population Growth: A Review from the Perspective of SSA Susan Hill Cochrane Introduction There are two things that are necessary to bring about a commitment to reducing fertility in any country. The negative consequences of rapid population growth or specifically high fertility must be perceived by the government leaders. Such perceptions are not sufficient, however. It is also necessary for those leaders to perceive that it is possible to do something to reddce fertility and that such policies and programs to reduce fertility must be perceived as being feasible in terms of both economic and political cost. In this paper, the development consequences of population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will be reviewed. Giveni the diversity of work that has been done on this topic, this review cannot hope to be comprehensive. Nevertheless, an attempt will be made (1) to examine the perception of African leaders as to the aggregate consequences of population growth from policy statements and development plans, (2) to review the conceptual problems that arise in trying to assess the probable demographic consequences of rapid population growth, and (3) to review the work on probable specific effects of population growth on development objectives of expanding education, eliminating unemployment, providing sufficient food and accelerating general economic development. -2- Although this review is far from comprehensive, it is hoped that more materials will be forthcoming to expand the evidence in later editions. Despite the limitations of this draft, however, it is exDected that the evidence reviewed here will be suff1icient to identify the general problems of coping with population growth that have been and are being experienced in Africa and the potential amelioration of those problems if fertility could be reduced.* The feasibility of reducing fertility in Africa must also be addressed if governments are to consider not only the need to cope with population growth but the possibility to control that growth. These issues of feasibility will be addressed in other papers. *This draft was prepared prior to the second African Population Conference. Suggestions on specific changes or additions necessitated by the conference would be welcomed gladly. i 3- The discussion of the consequences of rapid population growth has generated considerable anger and frustration in SSA, as evidenced by the statement of Eraj (Nairobi, 1969) and Samir Amin (Accra, 1971). In recent years, however, there has also been widespread recognition of the serious problems arising from coping with rapid poptulation growth. It is extremely important to reconcile these two positions if one is correctly to interpret the position of SSA governments on population and help them to achieve accelerated development. The evolution of increased recognition of the problems associated with rapid population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa arises from many sources: (1) improved availability of data documenting population size and growth rates, (2) increased analysis of population consequences, and (3) changes in the economic circumstances in SSA which have eroded the surpluses with which to cope with rapid growth. Before preceeding to examining the conceptual and empirical issues involved in estabfishing the consequences of rapid growth it is necessary to determine the attitudes towards that growth in SSA prior to the 1974 Bucharest Conference on Populati6n. Perceptions of the Consequences of Population Growth in SSA There is a variety of possible ways in which population growth, size and density might affect economic growth and development. To understand the stance of SSA governments on population policies, it is necessary to determine how these consequences are perceived within SSA and how these perceptions have evolved. While no easy way exists to determine -4- the perceptions of governments or individuals of the relationship between population and well-being, there are bits and pieces of information that lend insight. It is useful to examine these perceptions up to the time of the 1974 World Population Conference as well as more recent perceptions. The earliest consistent cross-national data set on attitudes towards population comes from a series of sample surveys conducted around 1965. These surveys covered the urban and generally literate population in selected countries of Latin America, Asia and Africa, as well as selected developed countries. -- (Stycos, 1971, Appendix Table C). The majority of those interviewed in the three African countries - Nigeria, Kenya and Senegal -- felt that a larger pQpulation would be good for the country, (Nigeria - 53%; Kenya - 59%; Senegal - 83%; see Table 1). It should be noted that a majority also agreed with this position in M'anila, Athens, Santiago, iexico City, Bangkok, Buenos Aires, Teheran and .Caracas. In addition, regional summary data shows that in Africa and Latin America only 33 and 24 percent, respectively, of those intervierwed felt that population growth would be bad for the nation, while in the Near and Far East, 53 percent perceived this to be the case. Thus, the majority of literate urban dwellers interviewed in these three African countries considered population growth to be good for their country. Their perceptions were shared by those interviewed in urban Latin American and in some cities in Asia. The survey shows that African perceptions about the consequences of population increase were not more optimistic than those in Latin America at that time. There was, however, a substantial difference between these regions on approval of national family planning programs. Despite the fact that Latin America is predominantly - 4a .Table I: Percenrtale Distribution of *Answers to uestLion, "Ait Lh1..s considr!red, do vot.t .ihi.nk luiving, a -Lrg,-tr popitti il- be a good thing or a bad thing Cor this country?" country/Ci ty Bad Thing Good Thing No Opinion 73tal India 87 8 5 100 Great BriLain 73 12 15 0oo Seoul 68 16 16 iOO Italy 59 21 20 100 Turkey 63 33 4 100 West Ger;many 51 24 25 1 00 Japan 51 27 22 LOO Singapore 38 26 36 100 Nigeria 47 53 - .00 France 32 46 22 100 Manila 3? 54 7 i00 Athens 40 56 4 1C00 Rio de Janeiro 29 47 24 100 Kuala Lumpur 29 49 22 00 Kanya 36 59 5 100 Sanitiago 30 64 6 00 Mexico City 31 65 4 1'00 Bangckok. 20 69 11 100 Buenos Aires 21 71 8 '00 Teheran 21 76 3 GC0 Caracas 18 75 7 100 Da kar 13 83 4 1'00 -5- Roman Catholic, 74 percent of those interviewed approved of such programs.

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