Calgary & Area Labour Market Report Second Quarter 2009
Alberta Employment and Immigration
Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction ...... 4 Organization of the Report...... 4 Executive Summary...... 5 The Economy...... 13 Global Economy...... 13 U.S. Economy...... 16 Canadian Economy...... 21 Contributory Influences ...... 22 Alberta Economy...... 26 Contributory Influences ...... 29 Calgary Region Economy ...... 37 Contributory Influences ...... 39 Trends in the Labour Market ...... 45 Canada ...... 45 Q2 2009 ...... 45 Alberta ...... 48 Q2 2009 ...... 48 Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA)...... 52 Q2 2009 ...... 52 Community Profiles ...... 54 Town of High River ...... 54 Population ...... 55 Education ...... 56 Labour Force ...... 57 Housing ...... 58 Major Projects...... 59 Other Communities in the Calgary Region...... 59 Housing ...... 59 Inventory of Projects ...... 61 Community News ...... 63 Calgary & Area Employer Survey ...... 66 Q2 2009 Survey Results: Medium-Sized Companies (50 - 99 employees)...... 66 Comparative Analysis ...... 94 Labour Market Information Review...... 104 Labour Market News Highlights ...... 104 Volume 11. Issue 4. April 2009 ...... 104 Volume 11. Issue 5. May 2009...... 104 Volume 11. Issue 6. June 2009...... 105 Employer Labour Market News Highlights...... 106 Volume 4. Issue 3. May 2009...... 106 Job Ad Analysis ...... 106 Calgary Sun Classifieds...... 106 Appendix A ...... 108 Survey Methodology ...... 108
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Disclaimer Alberta Employment and Immigration has made every effort to ensure that the information contained in this report is reliable, but makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness. The user of any information in this report accepts full responsibility and risk of loss resulting from decisions made by the user.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
INTRODUCTION Alberta Employment and Immigration provides career and labour market information products and resources, with both a provincial and local/regional focus, in order that Albertans have the skills, supports and information they need to succeed in the labour market. This report provides labour market information and analysis for use by Albertans in learning about the labour market and career planning; by employers and industry for use in understanding and addressing labour market issues; and by the Alberta Employment and Immigration Calgary Region for use in strategic planning for programs and services.
ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT This report contains the following information: Economic Overview – The Calgary regionʼs economy is influenced by global economic conditions, and by economic drivers in the Canadian economy and elsewhere in Alberta. This section provides information on economic activity in the second quarter of 2009, as well as outlooks (where available) for the global, U.S., Canada, Alberta and Calgary region economies. Trends in the Labour Market – This section examines labour market information for Canada, Alberta and the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). The information provided in this section is based upon Statistics Canadaʼs Labour Force Survey. Community Profiles – This section highlights some of the happenings in the second quarter of 2009 in the communities surrounding Calgary, along with a more detailed profile of the town of High River. Calgary and Area Employer Survey – This section highlights findings from a survey conducted in the second quarter of 2009 of Calgary and area companies with 50 - 99 employees. Results of this survey are compared to the results of a survey conducted in the second quarter of 2008 (companies with 50 - 99 employees). Labour Market Information Review – The Calgary & Area Labour Market News, published monthly, provides current labour market information and analysis geared toward job seekers. The Calgary & Area Employer Labour Market News, published bi-monthly, is geared toward employers, business and industry. This section highlights the content in the April, May and June 2009 issues.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Economy Global Economy The current global economic downturn is now the sharpest recession since the Great Depression. The rate of world economic contraction is now projected to be 1.3 per cent in 2009. However, the global economy is expected to experience moderate recovery as stabilization of the worldʼs financial institutions continue to recover next year. In 2010, the world economy is forecast to grow by 1.9 per cent.
• Total output of the advanced economies is now expected to decline by 3.8 per cent in 2009. In 2010, the economic output projection for advanced economies is now projected to be flat at zero (no change).
• Of the major advanced economies, Japan has the distinction of being projected to experience the largest decline in 2009. The Japanese economy has been especially hard hit because of its heavy reliance on manufacturing exports, especially automobiles.
• The U.S. and Canadian economies are projected to fare reasonably well in comparison to other advanced economies, especially Canada which is projected to have, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the highest rate of economic growth in 2010.
• Only emerging and developing economies are projected to grow. In 2009 the growth of emerging and developing economies is projected to be 1.6 per cent and increasing to 4.0 per cent in 2010.
• China and India have turned into the worldʼs economic leaders with projected growth of 6.5 and 4.5 per cent respectively for 2009. U.S. Economy The U.S. economy continued its retreat in the first quarter of 2009, with real gross domestic product (GDP) decreasing 2.5 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2008. The economic malaise is affecting all major U.S. industries. All goods producing industries experienced declines in 2008. In 2008 the services sector retail trade fell for the first time since 1991. While rebounding somewhat in the first quarter of 2009, this sector is substantially weaker than a year ago.
• The Conference Board is projecting that the U.S. economy will turn around in the third quarter of 2009 and experience positive growth above 2.0 percent in the first half of 2010. This projected economic growth coincides with a turnaround in real consumer spending. This is in turn is expected to increase both auto and housing sales. These positive economic forecasts are expected to occur in spite of projected increasing unemployment rates.
• The U.S. labour market has continued to deteriorate throughout 2009. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor, non–farm payroll employment declined by 467,000 in June 2009, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.5 per cent. Job losses were fairly evenly split between services-producing and goods-producing sectors. The sectors with the biggest declines continued to be manufacturing, business services and construction.
• In May 2009, privately–owned housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 518,000, 17.2 per cent above the April 2009 rate. Building permits for privately–owned housing units were at 513,000 in May 2009, compared with 378,000 in April 2009. As a result, the sharp decline in housing starts has, at least briefly, been arrested.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
• The U.S. trade deficit has continued to improve as the recession has deepened. The U.S. current- account deficit—the combined balances on trade in goods and services, income, and net unilateral current transfers—decreased to $101.5 billion in the first quarter of 2009, the smallest deficit since the fourth quarter of 2001, from $154.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008. Canadian Economy The Canadian economy contracted at an annualized rate of 5.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2009, following a 3.7 per cent decline in the fourth quarter of 2008. Declines in personal expenditures, inventories, and gross fixed capital investment all contributed to the overall weakness in the Canadian economy in the first quarter of 2009. The Canadian economy is forecast to contract between 1.7 per cent and 2.5 per cent in 2009. Forecasts for growth of real GDP in Canada in 2010 range between 1.4 per cent and 2.5 per cent.
• The Canadian dollar gained strength in the second quarter of 2009, averaging 85.7 cents US, up from an average of 80.3 cents US in the first quarter of 2009. The Canadian dollar is forecast to gain additional strength by the end of 2009, and average between 87.0 cents US and 100.0 cents US.
• Inflation in Canada eased to 0.1 per cent year over year in May 2009, down from the year over year change of 0.4 per cent in April 2009. The main reason for the slowdown in the growth of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was a sharp 18.3 per cent year over year decline in the price of energy products, which peaked in the second quarter of 2008. If energy were excluded from the CPI, the CPI would have grown by 2.3 per cent. Inflation has been on a general decline since August 2008, when the 12-month rate of growth in consumer prices reached 3.5 per cent.
• The Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points on April 21, 2009 to 0.25 per cent, which brings the total easing to 425 basis points since December 2007. Central banks around the world including the Bank of Canada have cut monetary policy rates aggressively since October 2008 in order to provide liquidity to the financial markets. The Bank of Canada is committed to keeping the target for the overnight rate at 0.25 per cent until the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve its inflation target.
• Canadaʼs population reached an estimated total of 33,592,700 as of April 1, 2009, up by 88,000 from January 1, 2009. The 0.26 per cent growth observed in the first quarter of 2009 was the fastest first- quarter growth rate since 2001. Alberta Economy The global economic downturn has left a mark on every region in Canada, including Alberta. Albertaʼs economy is forecast to contract between 2.3 per cent and 2.7 per cent in 2009, the provinceʼs most severe contraction since 1982, but recover in 2010 with growth projections ranging from 1.8 per cent to 2.9 per cent.
• In the second quarter of 2009, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil averaged $60 U.S. per barrel, up 40 per cent from an average of $43 U.S. per barrel in the first quarter of 2009. In April 2009, WTI crude oil averaged $50 U.S. per barrel, and finished strong in the month of June averaging $70 U.S. per barrel.
• Natural gas prices averaged $3.41 C$ per GJ in April 2009, down 15 per cent from the previous month and down nearly 60 per cent from the same month of 2008. High inventories and surging supplies from shale gas deposits in Texas, Louisiana, and British Columbia are contributing to the fall in prices. The Conference Board of Canada projects natural gas production to fall 6 per cent in 2009 and then fall on average 3.1 per cent annually from 2010 to 2013.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
• In Alberta, consumer prices declined 0.7 per cent year over year in May 2009, after falling 0.7 per cent in April 2009. Growth in consumer prices slowed in all provinces year over year in April 2009, with the largest slowdown recorded in Alberta.
• Total housing starts in Alberta declined to 1,011 in May 2009, a 63 per cent decrease from May 2008. From January to May 2009, housing starts in Alberta totaled 4,136, a 69 per cent decrease from the first five months of 2008.
• First quarter 2009 MLS sales in Alberta are 32 per cent lower than the same period in 2008 - only 9,541 units have been sold compared to 13,982 units in 2008. MLS sales in Alberta are forecast to increase 9.1 per cent to 48,000 units in 2010 and average resale prices are forecast to increase 2.0 per cent to $329,000.
• Alberta had the largest growth in the value of total building permits issued in the month of May 2009. The value of Alberta building permits increased 48 per cent month over month to $1.1 billion, and growth was experienced in all components except single-family dwellings.
• Investment in non-residential building construction in Alberta reached $2.46 billion in the second quarter of 2009, a 7.4 per cent decrease from the previous quarter, and a 6.5 per cent decrease year over year.
• Following a 1.9 per cent decrease in March 2009, retail sales in Alberta rose 0.6 per cent in April 2009 and reached $4.59 billion. On a year over year basis, retail sales in Alberta were down 10.5 per cent compared to the sales in April 2008. Retail sales are a good indicator of consumer sentiment. The economic downturn has had Albertans pulling back spending since the Fall of 2008, from sales of $5.1 billion in September 2008 to sales of $4.6 billion in April 2009.
• The average weekly earnings of Alberta payroll employees increased 3.2 per cent to $946.66 in the 12 months to April 2009. Over the same period, the national increase in average weekly earnings of payroll employees was 1.4 per cent to $820.53. Although down by 1.8 per cent compared to the previous month, Alberta continued to have the highest wages in Canada in April 2009.
• Business and personal bankruptcies in Alberta totaled 1,025 in April 2009, down by 8.9 per cent from a month earlier but up 70 per cent from the same month of the last year. Nationally, business and personal bankruptcies in April 2009 totaled 14,455, posting a 32 per cent increase year over year.
• Albertaʼs population increased by 21,357 from January 1, 2009 to April 1, 2009, and reached an estimated total of 3,653,840. With a 0.59 per cent population growth observed in the first quarter of 2009, Alberta was the nationʼs leader in population growth for the sixth consecutive quarter. Gains in net international and inter–provincial migration were the main drivers of population growth in Alberta. Calgary Region Economy The global economic woes have finally hit Calgaryʼs economy, which will decline in 2009 for the first time since 1989. After sluggish performance in 2008, real GDP for the Calgary region economy is projected to decline by 0.1 per cent in 2009. While the Calgary region economy is expected to slump in 2009, the prospects for recovery look bright for 2010. The Conference Board of Canada is projecting economic growth to jump to over three percent in 2010 and four per cent in 2011 and remain strong through to 2013.
• Consumer prices in the Calgary CMA declined by 0.3 per cent year over year in April 2009. This compares to a general decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Alberta of 0.7 per cent over the same period. For the entire year of 2009, inflation for the Calgary region is expected to be below 1.0 per cent, just slightly above the average for Alberta (0.6 per cent).
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
• Total housing starts in the Calgary CMA declined 67.7 per cent year over year in May 2009. Most of this decline is due to the significant drop in multi-family housing starts. Year-to-date May, multi- family housing starts are down from 5,362 in 2008 to 372 in 2009, a drop of 93 per cent. In contrast, single-family housing starts are down from 1,878 in 2008 to 1,175 in 2009, a drop of 37 per cent.
• The number of single–family metro homes sold in Calgary totaled 1,837 in June 2009, up 16 per cent from a month earlier. This continues a string of single-family house sale increases now reaching six months. The median price of a single-family metro home in Calgary was $399,000 in June 2009, up 2 per cent from a month earlier, but down 2 per cent from a year earlier.
• The Calgary CMA recorded an 8.8 per cent year over year drop in new home prices in April 2009 compared with a 3.0 per cent decline nationally. Between March 2009 and April 2009, new home prices declined 0.8 per cent in Calgary. New home prices are expected to continue to moderate in the Calgary CMA in 2009 and 2010. The average price of a new single-detached house is projected to decline to $550,000 in 2009, reflecting a 5.5 per cent price drop from 2008. As well, prices are projected to drop another 2.7 per cent in 2010.
• Investment in non-residential building construction in the Calgary CMA fell 6.2 per cent quarter over quarter to $1.12 billion in the second quarter of 2009. Year over year, investment decreased 10.2 per cent in the Calgary CMA.
• The overall office vacancy rate for Calgary increased to 5.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2009. This is close to the average office vacancy rates in Calgary in the first quarter of 2005, before the latest economic expansion occurred. In spite of rising vacancy rates, there seems to be considerable confidence in the office leasing market, as all of the office towers currently under construction are going ahead, regardless of pre-leasing arrangements that may have been made.
• As of June 2009, Alberta Finance and Enterprise estimates that there are over 240 projects worth $29.3 billion that are either proposed, announced or under construction in Calgary. This is down somewhat from the March 2009 figure of $31.7 billion. Trends in the Labour Market Canada While employment in Canada in June 2009 was well below its peak of close to 17,200,000 in October 2008, there was a notable moderation in employment declines in the second quarter of 2009. Employment in Canada decreased by 62,800 quarter over quarter in the second quarter of 2009, compared to a quarter over quarter decline of 239,000 in the first three months of 2009.
• Canadaʼs unemployment rate increased from 8.0 per cent in April 2009 to 8.6 per cent in June 2009, averaging 8.4 per cent for the second quarter of 2009, as more people looked for work.
• In the second quarter of 2009, employment for youth aged 15 – 24 years declined by 40,600 from the previous quarter, or 1.6 per cent. In June 2009, the unemployment rate for youth reached 15.9 per cent, the highest in 11 years. Among all age groups, youth employment has been hit the hardest since October 2008.
• Self-employment is on the rise in Canada, growing 1.5 per cent since October 2008. In contrast, private sector employment has declined 3.3 per cent, and public sector employment has declined 1.4 per cent since October 2008.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
• On an annual basis, employment was down in 11 industries in Canada in the second quarter of 2009, including manufacturing (-8.9 per cent), construction (-7.0 per cent), and natural resources (-6.9 per cent). Employment growth occurred in five industries on an annual basis, with the other services industry posting the strongest growth rate at 8.0 per cent. Alberta Alberta accounted for approximately 20 per cent of the decline in employment in Canada in the second quarter of 2009, with employment in Alberta decreasing by 13,000 from the previous quarter. Year over year, employment in Alberta decreased by 18,300 or 0.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2009.
• Albertaʼs participation rate was the highest in the country at 74.5 per cent in June 2009, 7.0 percentage points above the national average of 67.5 per cent. The participation rate is important in determining the number of individuals who are willing to work, are working, or are actively looking for work.
• Albertaʼs seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 6.0 per cent in April 2009 to 6.8 per cent in June 2009, averaging 6.5 per cent for the quarter.
• On a year over year basis, nine industries in Alberta experienced employment declines in the second quarter of 2009, with the most significant decreases seen in the wholesale trade industry, manufacturing industry, professional, scientific and technical services industry and construction industry. Strong employment growth occurred in information, culture and recreation, public administration, and accommodation and food services in the second quarter of 2009 on a year over year basis.
• There were year over year employment declines across six occupation categories in Alberta in the second quarter of 2009. The most significant declines occurred in occupations unique to primary industry, business, finance and administrative occupations, and trades, transport and equipment operator occupations. Employment growth occurred in natural and applied sciences occupations, social science, education, government and religion occupations, health occupations, and sales and
service occupations. Calgary CMA Employment in the Calgary CMA was estimated at 694,400 in the second quarter of 2009, a decrease of 15,900 from the previous quarter and a decrease of 2,900 year over year. Calgaryʼs labour force also declined quarter over quarter (-3,100), however year over year the labour force increased by 22,600 in the second quarter of 2009.
• The unemployment rate in the Calgary CMA increased from 6.3 per cent in April 2009 to 6.6 per cent in June 2009, averaging 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of 2009. Community Profiles Town of High River The town of High River is located approximately 55 km south of Calgary along Highway #2, Albertaʼs main north/south travel corridor. Its employment base includes commercial services, manufacturing, construction, transportation, finance, and agriculture. Future growth in the area is forecast in commercial services, home- based business, and health services.
• According to the 2006 Federal Census figures, the population of High River has increased from 9,383 in 2001 to 10,716 in 2006, reflecting a growth of 14.2 per cent. High Riverʼs Municipal Census, conducted in the second quarter of 2009, showed an unofficial population of 11,582, an eight per cent increase from 2006.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
• Forty seven per cent of High Riverʼs population 15 years of age and over reported having attained a post-secondary certificate, diploma, or degree in 2006, significantly lower than the Calgary CMA at 56 per cent. Of the 47.3 per cent of the population with a post-secondary education, 20 per cent have a college or other non-university certificate or diploma, 11 per cent have a university certificate or degree, 13 per cent have an apprenticeship/trades certificate or diploma, and 4.2 per cent have a university certificate or diploma below the bachelor level.
• Sixty-seven per cent of the population 15 years of age and over in High River was in the labor force. The majority of High Riverʼs labour force in 2006 was in the other services, business services, health care and social services, and construction industries, altogether comprising 69 per cent of the labour force. Sales and service occupations toped the list of reported occupations, followed by trades, transport and equipment operator occupations, business, finance and administrative occupations, and management occupations.
• Residential sales were virtually unchanged in High River in the second quarter of 2009 (94 units), compared to the same period in 2008 (95 units). Average residential prices declined slightly in the second quarter of 2009, recording a 7.6 per cent year over year decrease to just under $300,000. Resale homes in High River were on the market an average of 93 days from April to June 2009, more than three weeks longer than the second quarter of 2008 (69 days).
• From January 1 – May 31, 2009, total housing starts in High River have amounted to 59 units, with 20 units as single-detached starts, and 39 units as multi-family starts.
• There were a total of eight vacant apartment units in High River in April 2009, out of a total of 209 units, representing an overall vacancy rate of 4.0 per cent. Average rents for an apartment in High River have increased 6.3 per cent, from $745 per month in April 2008 to $791 per month in April 2009.
• Approximately $35.4 million in major capital projects are either proposed or under construction in High River as of May 2009. Other Communities in the Calgary Region Alberta Employment and Immigrationʼs Calgary Region includes the following communities surrounding the city of Calgary: Airdrie, Banff, Beiseker, Black Diamond, Canmore, Chestermere, Cochrane, Crossfield, High River, Irricana, Okotoks, and Turner Valley.
• Housing starts in the Calgary CMA totaled 1,547 units in the first five months of 2009, down 79 per cent from the same period in 2008.
• The total number of resale housing units sold in the towns outside Calgary in June 2009 totaled 472, a 22 per cent increase from June 2008. In the first half of 2009, 1,800 resale housing units were sold, representing a 19 per cent decrease from the same period in 2008.
• Average combined residential sale prices in the towns outside Calgary decreased 6.3 per cent year over year in June 2009 to $354,335. From January to June 2009, average residential sale prices in these communities decreased 9 per cent to $346,660 compared to the same period in 2008.
• Over $5.12 billion in major capital projects are either proposed, announced, or under construction in select communities surrounding Calgary. Calgary & Area Employer Survey For each quarter of 2009, a survey will be conducted of Calgary and area companies. The purpose of the survey is to gather information from employers on their recruitment and retention practices and various other employment issues they are facing. In the first quarter of 2009, large-sized companies (100+ employees)
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
were surveyed, and in the second quarter, medium-sized companies (50 – 99 employees) were surveyed. Small-sized companies (10 – 49 employees) will be surveyed in the third quarter, and micro-sized companies (<10 employees) will be surveyed in the fourth quarter. Q2 2009 Survey Results: Companies with 50 - 99 Employees • The 200 companies surveyed employ approximately 13,763 people. • Nineteen per cent (39 companies) have expanded, 31 per cent (62 companies) have downsized, and two per cent (four companies) have relocated in the last 12 months. Forty-eight per cent of the companies have not changed the scope of their operations in the last 12 months.
• Twenty-two per cent (44 companies) anticipate a business expansion, two per cent (four companies) anticipate a relocation and six per cent (12 companies) anticipate a business downsize in the next 12 months. No closures are expected.
• Thirty-eight per cent (75 companies) said their company has laid off employees in the past three months as a result of the slowdown in the economy. Approximately 640 people were reported as being laid off, with 80 per cent specified as full-time layoffs.
• Thirty-six per cent (71 companies) currently have approximately 300 vacant positions that need to be filled.
• Eleven per cent (21 companies) anticipate total employment will increase over the next three months, four per cent (8 companies) anticipate it will decrease, and 59 per cent (119 companies) anticipate it will stay about the same. The net increase in employees over the next three months is estimated to be 106 (an increase of 164 employees vs. a decrease of 58 employees).
• Overall, the top resources companies use to find applicants are: word of mouth/employee referrals (70%), company website/internal postings (58%), Internet (51%), walk-ins/unsolicited resumes (49%), and newspapers (48%).
• Forty-one per cent (81 companies) had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the last 12 months. • While 41 per cent of the companies had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the last 12 months, only 13 per cent (25 companies) had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the last three months.
• Four per cent (eight companies) anticipate having more difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the next 12 months, 39 per cent (77 companies) anticipate having less difficulty, and 48 per cent (97 companies) anticipate having the same amount of difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the next 12 months.
• Twenty-one per cent (41 companies) currently employ approximately 203 temporary foreign workers. • Six per cent (12 companies) anticipate applying for or hiring an additional 48 temporary foreign workers in the next 12 months.
• Seventy-one per cent (142 companies) reported employees have left their company in the past 12 months as a result of voluntary turnover. Approximately 1,083 employees have left the companies surveyed in the past 12 months, resulting in an average turnover rate of eight per cent.
• Eight per cent (15 companies) anticipate employee turnover will be higher in the next 12 months, 28 per cent (56 companies) anticipate it will be lower, and 60 per cent (122 companies) anticipate employee turnover will be about the same in the next 12 months.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
• Overall, the top strategies companies are using to retain employees are: positive work environment (92%), excellent management/supervision (87%), competitive salary (82%), excellent communication (79%), competitive benefits (78%), and learning/growth opportunities (78%).
• Overall, 26 per cent (51 companies) anticipate their companies will be focusing more on employee retention in the next 12 months, five per cent (nine companies) will be focusing less, and 65 per cent (132 companies) will be focusing about the same on employee retention in the next year.
• Eight per cent (16 companies) anticipate spending on employee training/development will increase in 2009, compared to 2008, 25 per cent (49 companies) anticipate spending will decrease, and 59 per cent (119 companies) anticipate no change in spending. Comparative Analysis This section compares results of the Q2 2008 survey (50 – 99 employees) with results of the Q2 2009 survey (50 – 99 employees). Labour Market Information Review Labour Market News Highlights The Calgary & Area Labour Market News, published monthly, provides current labour market information and analysis geared toward job seekers. The full articles are available on the Alberta Employment and Immigration website at http://www.employment.gov.ab.ca/cps/rde/xchg/hre/hs.xsl/2396.html
Employer Labour Market News Highlights The Calgary & Area Employer Labour Market News, published bi-monthly, is geared toward employers, business and industry. The full articles are available on the Alberta Employment and Immigration website at http://www.employment.gov.ab.ca/cps/rde/xchg/hre/hs.xsl/2397.html
Job Ad Analysis The Calgary Sun Classifieds were analyzed in the second quarter 2009.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
THE ECONOMY The Calgary regionʼs economy is affected by global economic activity, economic conditions in the U.S., and economic drivers in the Canadian economy and elsewhere in Alberta.
GLOBAL ECONOMY
The current global economic downturn is now the sharpest recession since the Great Depression. The rate of world economic contraction is now projected to be 1.3 per cent in 2009, which represents a worsening of expectation of over 2 per cent since the last World Economic Outlook in the first quarter of 2009.1 However, the global economy is expected to experience moderate recovery as stabilization of the worldʼs financial institutions continue to recover next year. In 2010, the world economy is forecast to grow by 1.9 per cent, down from a projected rate of growth of 3.0 per cent just a quarter ago. This rate of world economic growth for 2010 has been adjusted to reflect the expectation now that there are more complexities than previously anticipated with restoring confidence in bank balance sheets. It should be noted that the modest economic growth for 2010 assumes a continuation of substantial macroeconomic stimulus in the advanced economies.
Figure 1: World Economic Outlook Projections (percent change year over year)
1 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, April 2009, p.1.
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The timing of economic recovery is currently the focus of significant economic debate. “Debates regarding the possible shape of recovery from the current downturn continue. But there is little question that the outlook for 2010 in particular, is surrounded by extreme uncertainty across a wide array of policy and other variables that will eventually bring about a revival in economic activity.”2 The volatility of world economic growth is highlighted by the wide range of forecasts for the global economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 90 per cent chance that total economic growth will register somewhere between +4.5 per cent and -1.5 per cent in 2010, a spread of 6.0 per cent.3 Total output of the advanced economies is now expected to decline in 2009 (-3.8 per cent), down from a projection of +2.5 per cent for 2009 just a quarter ago. The 2010 economic output projection for advanced economies is now projected to be flat at zero (no change) over 2010. European economies are projected to fare worse, with a projected decline in economic output of 4.0 per cent in 2009 and a continued decline in 2010 of 0.3 per cent. Only emerging and developing economies are projected to grow. In 2009 the growth of emerging and developing economies is projected to be 1.6 per cent and increasing to 4.0 per cent in 2010. As reported previously, the widening gap between advanced and emerging countries will create further challenges to rebalancing the world economy toward a more balanced global production and consumption distribution. The outlook for most European economies has worsened since the first quarter of 2009. “Led by substantial contraction in the largest economies, real GDP in the euro zone will decline by 4.5 per cent in 2009. Fragile labour market conditions and the expected appreciation of the euro and other regional currencies (versus the US dollar) may impair Europeʼs export competitiveness during the recovery phase.”4 The UK has been hit especially hard, although not showing the largest contraction in 2009, due to bigger downturns in the real estate and financial sectors. Recent manufacturing data indicates that this leading sector contracted again in May (2009) on the heels of a 2.4 per cent contraction over the same quarter in 2008.5 Germany is expected to be the hardest hit major economy in Europe, registering a decline of 5.6 per cent in 2009 and a projected continued decline of 1.0 per cent for 2010. The German economy has been constrained by continuing problems in the banking sector. With a commitment to inject necessary government funding into the countryʼs banking sector, Germany has also been pushing for greater international oversight over financial institutions and markets.6 Of the major advanced economies, Japan has the distinction of being projected to experience the largest decline in 2009. The Japanese economy has been especially hard hit because of its heavy reliance on manufacturing exports, especially automobiles. This is an interesting contrast with China and India, economies that also rely on manufacturing exports, but are expected to lead world economic growth. The potential success of trade dependant economies of avoiding major economic declines rests on the mix of trade with advanced economies and the ability to satisfy domestic demand with domestic products and services.
2 World Bank DEC Prospects Group, Global Economic Prospects 2009, March 2009, p.6. 3 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, April 2009, p.17. 4 Global Economic Research, International Views, Summer, 2009, p. 3. 5 NY Times, British Manufacturing Output Dropped in May, July 7, 2009. 6 Global Economic Research, International Views, Summer, 2009, p. 17.
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"Two thirds of Japanʼs growth from 2006 to 2008 was due to net exports, leaving the country perilously exposed to the recent dive in world trade volumes."7
Table 1: Advanced Economies Outlook Projections Change in Economic Output from Previous Year
Region 2009 2010
United States -2.8% 0.0% Germany -5.6% -1.0% France -3.0% 0.4% Italy -4.4% -0.4% Spain -3.0% -0.7% Japan -6.2% 0.5% U.K. -4.1% -0.4% Canada -2.5% 1.2% Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2009
The U.S. and Canadian economies are projected to fare reasonably well in comparison to other advanced economies, especially Canada which is projected to have, according to the IMF, the highest rate of economic growth in 2010. Emerging and developing economies are now expected to lead the world in economic growth through the recession, according to the IMF. China and India have turned into the worldʼs economic leaders with projected growth of 6.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively for 2009. Chinaʼs economic prospects appear to be improving with one forecast projecting economic growth of 7.5 per cent for 2009. "The World Bank raised its 2009 growth forecast for China from 6.5 percent to 7.2 percent last month. Private sector economists have raised their 2009 forecasts to between 6.8 percent and 8.5 percent."8 China has implemented one of the largest stimulus packages, $585 billion (US) to boost domestic consumption during the global downturn. While China is expected to fare reasonably well during the recession, its growth is not expected to spill over to other economies due to Chinaʼs ability to meet most of its own industrial and consumer demand needs.9 India, like China is less reliant on trade with advanced economies than some other emerging and developing countries. As a result, it is less affected by the downward shift in global demand. The deceleration of economic growth from over eight per cent in previous years is attributable to the impact of tighter credit conditions and the general dampening in the global economy that has affected international trade volumes. While India is expected to experience growth in some trade sectors (e.g. technology and business services), there are risks facing the Indian economy. The most notable is political instability resulting from internal political strife that could affect tourism as well as general unrest in the region.
7 CIBC Forecast, Not There Yet, April 28, 2009, p. 11. 8 Associated Press, China's 2Q growth may top 7.5 per cent, July 7, 2009, p.1. 9 CIBC Forecast, Not There Yet, April 28, 2009, p. 11.
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Table 2: Emerging and Developing Economies Outlook Projections Change in Economic Output from Previous Year
Region 2009 2010
Africa 2.0% 3.9% Russia -6.0% 0.5% China 6.5% 7.5% India 4.5% 5.6% Brazil -1.3% 2.2% Mexico -3.7% 1.0% Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2009
African nations have been largely shielded from the global economic downturn due to relatively weak linkages with advanced economies. This has allowed the continent to weather the economic storm relatively unscathed. However, there are risks that the global credit crisis and depressed commodity prices may be catching up with Africa. At most risk are oil exporting countries (e.g. Angola, Nigeria, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guiana) and key emerging nations reliant upon foreign investment for growth (e.g. Botswana, Mauritius, South Africa). While India and China will be leading the world in economic growth, there are a large number of emerging economies that will not fare as well. Generally, the reasons these countries will face economic decline is threefold: financial and banking liquidity has reduced access to needed capital to fuel growth; reduced demand for products from advanced economies; and, a reduction in commodity prices, most notably energy prices.
U.S. ECONOMY The U.S. economy continued its retreat in the first quarter of 2009, with real gross domestic product (GDP) decreasing 2.5 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2008. This decrease in real GDP primarily reflects negative contributions from exports, equipment and software, private inventory investment, nonresidential structures, and residential investment. These negative factors were partly offset by a positive contribution from personal consumption expenditures.10 “The bottom line of this report is that the U.S. economy remains rather weak as the ongoing housing correction and financial sector crisis continue to weight heavily on the domestic economy.”11
10 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, First Quarter 2009, p. 1. 11 TD Economics, Commentary, April 29, 2009.
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Figure 2: U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product % Change From Quarter One Year Ago
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2009 (Final)
The economic malaise is affecting all major U.S. industries. All goods producing industries experienced declines in 2008. In 2008 the services sector retail trade fell for the first time since 1991.12 While rebounding somewhat in the first quarter of 2009, this sector is substantially weaker than a year ago. One forecaster has set out five conditions for recovery of the U.S. economy, which are consistent with the views of many major forecasters. TD Economics has outlined the following as conditions to achieving recovery by late 2009 and building to positive economic growth in 2010.13
• The real estate market must stabilize in the next 3-6 months. Until the housing market stabilizes, declining household wealth and risks to the mortgage and financing industry will curtail consumer confidence and the recovery of the domestic retail and service sectors.
• Credit conditions must continue to improve. Signs are that credit conditions are improving and are on track to facilitate recovery by the end of 2009.
• There must be a reduction in global systemic risks. While some global economic concerns are showing signs of improving, there are a number of systemic risks, primarily in European markets.
12 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Industry Economic Accounts: GDP by Industry Highlights, April 28, 2009. 13 TD Economics, TD Quarterly Economic Forecast, June 16, 2009, p. 2.
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• Restructuring of the auto industry needs to continue to make progress. It is probably too early to tell if the U.S. auto industry will recover, however managed movement toward structured bankruptcy protection is a logical step toward survival of this sector in the U.S.
• The U.S. stimulus package must be implemented swiftly and the economic boost needs to be in the ballpark of current expectations. It is probably too early to tell if the stimulus package is succeeding, but some forecasters are suggesting that additional stimulus may be necessary to help support the domestic economy. The Conference Board is projecting that the U.S. economy will turn around in the third quarter of 2009 and experience positive growth above 2.0 percent in the first half of 2010. This projected economic growth coincides with a turnaround in real consumer spending. This is in turn is expected to increase both auto and housing sales. These positive economic forecasts are expected to occur in spite of projected increasing unemployment rates.
Table 3: U.S. Economic Outlook (% change, seasonally adjusted annual rates)
2009 2010 Annual Category Q1* Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 2009 2010 Real GDP -6.1 -1.5 0.4 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.2 -2.8 1.5 CPI Inflation -2.4 -0.3 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.0 3.8 -1.1 1.9 Real Consumer Spending 2.2 0.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 2.4 0.3 -0.4 1.6 Real Capital Spending -37.9 -22 -13.2 -6.6 3.1 4.1 1.6 -20.8 -1.8 Light vehicle sales (mil. units) 9.35 9.11 9.10 9.47 9.97 10.30 13.13 9.31 10.67 Housing starts (mil. units) 0.55 0.52 0.53 0.59 0.64 0.66 0.90 0.54 0.73 Exports -30.0 -14.8 -10.9 -10.6 2.2 3.0 6.2 -16.5 -2.6 Imports -34.1 -10.1 -7.9 -1.1 6.2 4.9 -3.5 -16.5 1.2 Unemployment rate (%) 8.0 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.1 10.2 5.8 9.2 10.1 90–day T–bills (%) 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 1.4 0.24 0.24 Exchange Rate ($U.S./Euro) 1.30 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.34 1.47 1.33 1.33 Source: Conference Board of Canada, Straight Talk, May 2009 * Actual data.
The U.S. labour market has continued to deteriorate throughout 2009. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor, non–farm payroll employment declined by 467,000 in June 2009, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.5 per cent (up from 8.5 per cent last quarter). Job losses were fairly evenly split between services-producing (-244K) and goods-producing (-223K) sectors. The sectors with the biggest declines continued to be manufacturing (-156K), business services (-118K) and construction (-79K). “The unemployment rate rose one-tenth to 9.5%, a new 26-year high. It is expected to peak at 10% early next year, below the postwar high of 10.8% set in 1982. The average duration of unemployment hit a record-high 24.5 weeks, suggesting companies remain very reluctant to hire, also evident in the still-high level of initial jobless claims (614k) last week.”14
14 BMO Nesbitt Burns, econoFACTS – US Employment Report, July 2, 2009.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Figure 3: U.S. Change in Payroll Employment
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics, Payroll Employment in June 2009
Since December 2007, a total of 6.5 million jobs have been lost in the U.S., with 2.6 million jobs lost in the last six months. In addition to the mounting job losses, of some concern with the U.S. employment data is the loss of average hours worked and that hourly earnings were not changed over the previous period. This indicates that even those who have managed to keep their jobs have been working less and losing real purchasing power, both of which have negative implications for consumer spending and industrial production.15 The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that real disposable income (adjusted for inflation and taxes) also decreased 1.6 per cent in May 2009, after a 1.2 per cent increase recorded in April 2009. Private wage and salary expenditures decreased by $12.4 billion in May, compared with a $0.7 billion decrease in April. Reflecting worker expectations about employment and income prospects, personal savings increased in April and May 2009. Personal savings – personal disposable income less personal consumption expenditure, increased from 5.6 per cent in April to 6.9 per cent in May. On the brighter side, demand for labour seems to have stabilized, at least by one measure. The decline in online advertised job vacancies slowed dramatically in May 2009. The number of unemployed workers to online advertised jobs (Supply/Demand ratio) dropped from 4.40 in April to 4.32 in May. This means that there are over four workers available for each posted online job. Regionally, the Supply/Demand ratio in the U.S. ranges from a low of approximately two (Maryland) to almost 10 (Michigan).16
15 CIBC Economics, Economic Flash, July 2, 2009. 16 The Conference Board, News Release, June 29, 2009.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
In May 2009, privately–owned housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 518,000, 17.2 per cent above the April 2009 rate. Building permits for privately–owned housing units were at 513,000 in May 2009, compared with 378,000 in April 2009. As a result, the sharp decline in housing starts has, at least briefly, been arrested. On the other hand, new housing sales declined in May 2009. Sales of seasonally adjusted new single-family homes totaled 342,000 in May 2009. This was 0.6 per cent below the reported April 2009 figure of 344,000 and 32.8 per cent below the May 2008 level of 509,000.
Figure 4: U.S. Housing Starts, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (thousands of housing units)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction
The U.S. trade deficit has continued to improve as the recession has deepened. The U.S. current-account deficit—the combined balances on trade in goods and services, income, and net unilateral current transfers—decreased to $101.5 billion in the first quarter of 2009, the smallest deficit since the fourth quarter of 2001, from $154.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008. The trade deficit on goods decreased to $124.0 billion in the first quarter from $178.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008. The surplus on services decreased to $32.8 billion in the first quarter from $34.3 billion in the fourth. 17
17 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Department of Commerce, New Release: U.S. International Transactions, June 17, 2009.
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CANADIAN ECONOMY The Canadian economy contracted at an annualized rate of 5.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2009, following a 3.7 per cent decline in the fourth quarter of 2008.18 Declines in personal expenditures, inventories, and gross fixed capital investment all contributed to the overall weakness in the Canadian economy in the first quarter of 2009. In total, investment subtracted 5.3 percentage points from first quarter 2009 growth. “The overall first quarter decline resulted from pronounced weakness in business investment that in part reflected the reported 67% annualized decline in pre-tax corporate profits.”19 Investment in residential structures fell 21 per cent (annualized) in the first quarter of 2009, after declining 23 per cent the previous quarter. Non-residential structures investment declined 26 per cent in the first quarter of 2009, following a decrease of 16 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008. Investment in machinery and equipment fell 36 per cent in the first quarter. Consumer spending declined an annualized 1.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2009, following a 3.1 per cent decrease the previous quarter. Imports (-38 per cent) declined more than exports (-30 per cent) in the first quarter of 2009, resulting in net exports adding four percentage points to GDP.20 The goods-producing sector declined 4.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2009, with all industries within the sector contributing to the decrease. Manufacturing registered the biggest decline (-6.1 per cent), followed by construction (-3.4 per cent), mining and oil and gas (-2.8 per cent), utilities (-1.3 per cent), and agriculture (-0.4 per cent).21 The services-producing sector also declined 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2009. The major contributors to the decline in the services-producing sector were wholesale trade (-5.6 per cent), transportation and warehousing (-2.0 per cent), and administrative and waste management services (-1.2 per cent). Increases in arts, entertainment and recreation (+0.9 per cent), educational services (+0.7 per cent), and health care and social assistance (+0.5 per cent) helped lessen the decline in the production of services.22 The Canadian economy is forecast to contract between 1.7 per cent and 2.5 per cent in 2009. Forecasts for growth of real GDP in Canada in 2010 range between 1.4 per cent and 2.5 per cent. CIBC World Markets is forecasting the Canadian economy will contract 2.5 per cent overall in 2009. “The worst is now behind us with the passing of Q1 (-5.4 per cent annualized). But despite the marketʼs optimism, boom times are not on the horizon just yet. While there have been some encouraging signs lately, especially in Asia, the global economy remains fragile and that will continue to restrict Canadaʼs speed limit. Expect Canadaʼs economy to continue to contract in the second (-3.1 per cent annualized) and third quarters (-0.5 per cent annualized) before finally seeing some growth in the final quarter of the year (+2.5 per cent), albeit at a sluggish pace.”23
18 Statistics Canada, The Daily, Canadian Economic Accounts, First Quarter 2009 and March 2009, June 1, 2009. 19 RBC Economics, Canadian National GDP Account, June 1, 2009. 20 Statistics Canada, Table B.4. Real gross domestic product, expenditure-based, annualized percentage change, 13- 010-X. 21 Statistics Canada, Table C.2. Real gross domestic product by industry, at basic prices, quarterly and annually, 13- 010-X. 22 Ibid. 23 CIBC World Markets, StrategEcon, Economic Update, June 18, 2008.
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Table 4: Real Gross Domestic Product Forecast: Canada (% change)
Forecast Agency Date Released 2009 2010
TD Bank Financial Group Jun 2009 -2.4 1.4 BMO Capital Markets Jul 2009 -2.5 1.8 Scotiabank Group Jul 2009 -2.2 2.5 CIBC World Markets Jun 2009 -2.5 1.5 RBC Financial Group Jun 2009 -2.4 2.5 Conference Board of Canada Spring 2009 -1.7 2.5
According to the Summer Business Outlook Survey conducted by the Bank of Canada between May 25 and June 18, 2009, businesses in Canada are more optimistic about future sales growth and future employment levels. “The results of the summer survey indicate that businesses foresee an improvement in the economic outlook. In particular, the balances of opinion on both future sales and employment have turned positive. Nevertheless, firms expect their activity to recover only gradually, and they continue to be cautious regarding investment.”24 The Business Outlook Survey summarizes interviews conducted by the Bankʼs regional offices with senior management of about 100 firms selected in accordance with the composition of Canadaʼs GDP.25 Sixty-one per cent of the respondents said their firmʼs sales volume is expected to increase at a greater rate over the next 12 months compared to the past 12 months, while 23 per cent said at a lesser rate, for a balance of opinion of +39 per cent – the biggest gap since the fourth quarter of 1999. The first quarter 2009 and fourth quarter 2008 surveys recorded the most pessimistic responses since the Bank of Canada began asking the question in 1998 (a balance of opinion of -22 per cent and -34 per cent, respectively). On balance, Canadian businesses also expect to increase the level of employment over the next 12 months, after the past two surveys reported planned decreases in employment. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents said their firmʼs level of employment is expected to be higher over the next 12 months, while 17 per cent said lower, for a balance of opinion of +22 per cent. Canadian businesses are also optimistic about the overall state of the economy, according to the latest Conference Board of Canada Business Confidence Survey conducted between June 11 and July 10, 2009. According to the Board, the last time positive responses outnumbered negative responses was over three years ago. “Thirty-seven per cent of the 105 executives responding from Canadaʼs largest companies said they expected economic conditions to improve in the next six months, while 15.4 per cent anticipated future problems.”26
CONTRIBUTORY INFLUENCES A number of factors influence the Canadian economy.
24 Bank of Canada, Business Outlook Survey, Results of the Summer 2009 Survey, Vol. 6.2, 13 July 2009, p.1. 25 Ibid. 26 The Vancouver Sun, Business confidence at highest point since Q2 2008: conference board, July 28, 2009.
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Canadian Dollar The Canadian dollar gained strength in the second quarter of 2009, averaging 85.7 cents US, up from an average of 80.3 cents US in the first quarter of 2009. The Canadian dollar is forecast to gain additional strength by the end of 2009, and average between 87.0 cents US and 100.0 cents US. TD Bank Financial Group is forecasting the Canadian dollar will be on par with the US dollar by year-end 2009. “The CAD rose a little more than 9% in May, the strongest one month gain in decades. With our end 2009 target of 87 cents (US) reached last month, we have upgraded our CAD forecast to par for the end of the year. This is a relatively aggressive forecast upgrade but it is justified by the weakness we still expect to see in the USD and the relative strength of Canadaʼs structural position.”27 The Canadian dollar is forecast to continue its upward momentum, for the most part, into the first half of 2010. Table 5: Exchange Rate Forecast – End of Quarter (USD/CAD)
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Forecast Agency Date Released 2009 2009 2010 2010 TD Bank Financial Group Jun 2009 0.950 1.000 1.000 0.950 BMO Capital Markets* Jul 2009 0.870 0.909 0.930 0.952 Scotiabank Jul 2009 0.917 0.943 0.952 0.962 CIBC World Markets Jun 2009 0.840 0.870 0.877 0.909 RBC Financial Group July 2009 0.862 0.877 0.885 0.900
*average for the quarter
Inflation The Consumer Price Index (CPI) provides a broad measure of the cost of living in Canada. The Bank of Canada monitors changes in the CPI in deciding when to tighten monetary conditions to keep inflation within the range of the inflation-control target it has set (2.0 per cent). To assess the trend of inflation, the Bank of Canada monitors the “core CPI” measure, which excludes eight of the CPIʼs most volatile components (fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation and tobacco products).28 The all-items CPI eased to 0.1 per cent year over year in May 2009, down from the year over year change of 0.4 per cent in April 2009. The main reason for the slowdown in the growth of the CPI was a sharp 18.3 per cent year over year decline in the price of energy products, which peaked in the second quarter of 2008. If energy were excluded from the CPI, the CPI would have grown by 2.3 per cent.29 “The decline in the energy price index was due more to high prices in 2008 than to recent market developments. On a month-to month basis, energy prices rose 4.4% from April to May.”30 Inflation has been on a general decline since August 2008, when the 12-month rate of growth in consumer prices reached 3.5 per cent.
27 TD Securities, Global Markets, June 10, 2009, p.9. 28 Bank of Canada, The Bank in Brief, The Consumer Price Index, January 2000. 29 Statistics Canada, The Daily, Latest Release from the Consumer Price Index, June 18, 2009 30 Ibid.
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Figure 5: CPI All-items and Core (Canada) % change from the same month of the previous year
Source: Statistics Canada
There has been upward pressure on the CPI as food prices have continued to increase since the first quarter of 2009. May 2009 saw a year over year increase in food prices of 6.4 per cent. Without the effects of food, the all-items CPI would have decreased 1.2 per cent. This effect was balanced out by the May 2009 year over year 8.2 per cent decrease for the transportation sector. The drop in energy prices has deceased the costs of the transportation industry.31 “While components responsible for the change in consumer prices varied considerably, the main downward contributors in all provinces were declines in prices for gasoline and other energy components. Rising prices for food was the main upward contributor.”32 The core CPI increased 2.0 per cent over the 12 months to May 2009, up fro the 1.8 per cent increase recorded in April 2009. “While it is unlikely to sway the Bank of Canada off the sidelines for now, continued core inflation pressures in the context of significant excess production capacity and labour market slack will raise some eyebrows. The next few months of data should confirm that a weak economy will keep core inflation pressures under wrap for a while longer.”33 Interest Rates The Bank of Canada adjusts monetary policy by raising and lowering the target for the overnight rate, the interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend one-day funds among themselves.
31 Ibid. 32 Ibid. 33 TD Economics, Provincial Inflation Monitor, June 18, 2009, p.1.
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“The target for overnight rate tells major financial institutions the average interest rate the Bank of Canada wants to see in the marketplace where they lend each other money for one day, or "overnight." When the Bank changes the Target for the Overnight Rate, this change usually affects other interest rates, including mortgage rates and prime rates charged by commercial banks.”34 The Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points on April 21, 2009 to 0.25 per cent, which brings the total easing to 425 basis points since December 2007. Central banks around the world including the Bank of Canada have cut monetary policy rates aggressively since October 2008 in order to provide liquidity to the financial markets. The Bank of Canada is committed to keeping the target for the overnight rate at 0.25 per cent until the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve its inflation target.35
“To reinforce its conditional commitment to maintain the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent, the Bank has announced that it will roll over a portion of its existing stock of 1- and 3-month term purchase and resale agreements (PRAs) into 6- and 12-month terms at minimum and maximum bid rates that correspond to the target rate and the Bank Rate, respectively.”36 On June 4, 2009, the Bank announced it would hold its target for the overnight rate at 0.25 per cent, and reiterated its conditional commitment to hold the current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010.
“Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target.”37 Scotiabank Group is forecasting the overnight rate will increase to 0.75 basis points by the end of the second quarter, 1.25 bps by the end of the third quarter, and 1.75 bps by the end of 2010.
“We now expect the Bank of Canada to begin tightening monetary policy settings in the second quarter of next year. The benchmark overnight rate should end the year at 1.75%, representing a cumulative increase of 150 bps from the current historical low.”38
Table 6: Bank of Canada Overnight Rate – End of Quarter Projections (%)
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Forecast Agency Date Released 2009 2009 2010 2010 TD Bank Financial Group June, 2009 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 BMO Capital Markets* June, 2009 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Scotiabank July 2009 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.75 CIBC World Markets June, 2009 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 RBC Financial Group July, 2009 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 * average for the quarter
34 Bank of Canada, The Bank in Brief, Target for the Overnight Rate, July 2001. 35 Bank of Canada, press release, Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report, April 23rd, 2009. 36 Ibid 37 Bank of Canada, Press Release, June 4, 2009. 38 Scotiabank Group, Global Forecast Update, July 10, 2009, p.5.
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Population Canadaʼs population reached an estimated total of 33,592,700 as of April 1, 2009, up by 88,000 from January 1, 2009.39 The 0.26 per cent growth observed in the first quarter of 2009 was the fastest first-quarter growth rate since 2001. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador were the only provinces that saw a decline in population in the first quarter of 2009. An increase in net international migration was the primary driver of the faster pace of population growth in the country. Net international migration was approximately 65,000 in the first quarter of 2009, up 5,900 from the same period in 2008, and accounted for just over 73 per cent of the first quarter population growth.40 The increase in net international migration was mainly attributable to an increase in net non–permanent residents. “The net number of non-permanent residents was 23,800 in the first three months of 2009, compared with 15,600 in the first quarter of 2008. The first quarter of 2009 saw the continuation of the upward trend that has been observed in the number of non-permanent residents since the beginning of 2007. In the last four quarters, the number of non- permanent residents in Canada grew by 16.8%, nearly 14 times faster than the total population.”41 Population growth remained strong in Western Canada in the first quarter of 2009, with all four provinces west of Ontario posting growth rates higher than the national average. Alberta led the other provinces in population growth in the first quarter of 2009 posting a growth rate of 0.59 per cent, which is more than double the Canadian rate.42 Alberta also had a higher net inter–provincial net migration rate than any other province. In Atlantic Canada, Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick were the only provinces that saw a population increase in the first quarter of 2009. Prince Edward Island dominated the Atlantic provinces with a growth rate of 0.17 per cent, which was mostly due to an increase in net international migration.
ALBERTA ECONOMY The global economic downturn has left a mark on every region in Canada, including Alberta. Energy prices have fallen dramatically year over year, with natural gas prices taking the hardest hit. Among all provinces, Alberta had the fastest rate of increase, month over month, in the number of people receiving regular EI benefits in April 2009. At the same time, Albertaʼs unemployment rate jumped to 6.8 per cent in June 2009. The economic downturn has also had Albertans pulling back spending since the Fall of 2008 - from retail sales of $5.1 billion in September 2008 to sales of $4.6 billion in April 2009. Alberta housing starts are down 69 per cent year to date May 2009, and are forecast to decline 39 per cent year over year in 2009. That being said, if the recent rebound in oil prices continues, these indicators are projected to improve moving into 2010. Albertaʼs economy is forecast to contract between 2.3 per cent and 2.7 per cent in 2009, the provinceʼs most severe contraction since 1982, but recover in 2010 with growth projections ranging from 1.8 per cent to 2.9 per cent. The oil and gas and the construction industries have been hit hardest among all industries due to massive pullbacks in oil and natural gas related projects. According to the Spring 2009 Alberta forecast of the
39 Statistics Canada, Quarterly Demographic Estimates January to March 2009, Catalogue No. 91-002-X. 40 lbid. 41 lbid. 42 lbid.
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Conference Board of Canada, the construction industry will contract by 15 per cent in 2009, followed by the manufacturing industry and the mining industry both contracting five per cent.43 As the economy begins to turn around, so will the market for workers. The ATB Financial Business Sentiments Index reports that Alberta companies are optimistic that they will commence hiring in the next quarter due to the direction of changes in the economy. In the construction industry 33 per cent of companies responded that they would increase employment in the next quarter.44
Figure 6: Alberta Industry Outlook (% change, 2002 dollars)
Source: The Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook Spring 2009
Although the province is still feeling the effects of the global recession, steps appear to be happening policy- wise and economic factors seem to be falling into place to lead the provinceʼs economy in the right direction. Several projects were reactivated this quarter in response to increasing oil prices and several new projects will be finished their construction phases. Construction and drilling activity will intensify as delayed project come on stream, which furthermore will help the manufacturing industry to rebound. Also, as many oilsands projects are expected to resume by 2010, employment growth is expected to pick up, retightening labor market conditions and pushing the wages higher, which will in turn increase consumer demand. The most recent economic forecasts for the Alberta economy range from 1.8 per cent to 2.9 per cent in 2010. RBC
43 Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook Spring 2009, p.41. 44 Western Centre for Economic Research University of Alberta, ATB Financial Business Sentiments Index, Where is the Alberta Economy Going?, 2009 Quarter 3, Number 125, June 2009, p.10.
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Financial Group and the Conference Board of Canada project the Alberta economy to grow by 2.9 per cent in 2010.45 “The rebound in Alberta will commence next year as the global economy begins to recover. Real GDP growth of 2.9 per cent is projected for Alberta in 2010.”46
Table 7: Real Gross Domestic Product Forecast: Alberta (% change)
Forecast Agency Date Released 2009 2010
CIBC World Markets Jun-09 -2.5 1.8 BMO Capital Markets Jul-09 -2.7 2.2 Scotiabank Group Jul-09 -2.3 2.8 RBC Financial Group Jun-09 -2.5 2.9 Conference Board of Canada Spring-09 -2.4 2.9
The general sentiment for Albertaʼs economic condition seems to be turning to a more positive outlook compared to the last couple of quarters. The most recent ATB Financial Business Sentiments Index supports this - the Index has moved back above 100 after spending two quarters below 100. The Index is compiled by the Western Centre for Economic Research at the University of Alberta, and is based on responses to a telephone survey of 408 business firms. “The higher the value of the Index, the stronger is the sentiment for expansion. The ceiling value of the index is 200 (all respondents expect increase) and the floor value is zero (all respondents expect a decrease). If the Index is below 100, it is interpreted as a decline in the economy.”47 The Business Sentiments Index of 107.0 for the third quarter of 2009 compares favorably to an Index of 99.5 in Q2 2009 and 99.7 in Q1 2009. The Index still sits below 133.6 reported in Q3 2008 when the prices of oil approached their peak. The results suggest that some firms appear optimistic that things will get better in the next quarter. “The indexʼs modest improvement suggests that Alberta businesses are feeling more reassured that stability has replaced volatility, and that outright optimism might not be far off.”48 Business sentiment was up for the third quarter of 2009 in the professional and technical (120.6 in Q3 vs 102.6 in Q2), transportation and warehousing (135.8 in Q3 vs 118.2 in Q2), wholesale trade (121.5 in Q3 vs 95.2 in Q2), and oil and gas industries (92.5 in Q3 vs 81.6 in Q2). It should be noted that while business sentiment was up in the oil and gas industry in the third quarter of 2009 compared to the previous quarter, an index of 92.5 suggests oil and gas companies are still pessimistic on average about the immediate future. Business sentiment was down in the manufacturing (109.4 in Q3 v 112.7 in Q2) and construction industries (69.2 in Q3 vs 79.9 in Q2). Insufficient demand was voiced as a concern for the construction industry.
45 Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook Spring 2009, p.39. 46 Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook Spring 2009, p.39. 47 Western Centre for Economic Research University of Alberta, ATB Financial Business Sentiments Index, Where is the Alberta Economy Going?, 2009 Quarter 3, Number 125, June 2009, p.3. 48 ATB Financial, Weekly Economic Bulletin, June 26, 2009.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
“Our survey also asks about potential bottlenecks in the Construction industry including: shortage of labour, weather conditions, insufficient demand, shortages of construction material or equipment, financial constraints, land availability, and other factors. In previous quarters, the shortage of labour has been the most significant issue, but this is no longer the case. Insufficient demand is now the largest potential bottleneck for the Construction industry, reflecting the general downturn in building activity.”49 Business sentiment in northern Alberta, including Edmonton and Red Deer (107.5) remained slightly above that for Calgary and southern Alberta (106.9) in the third quarter of 2009.
CONTRIBUTORY INFLUENCES A number of factors influence the Alberta economy.
Energy Industry The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil averaged $100 U.S. per barrel in 2008, and peaked in the second quarter of 2008 at $124 U.S. per barrel. In the second quarter of 2009, WTI crude oil averaged $60 U.S. per barrel, up 40 per cent from an average of $43 U.S. per barrel in the first quarter of 2009. In April 2009, WTI crude oil averaged $50 U.S. per barrel, and finished strong in the month of June averaging $70 U.S. per barrel.50
Figure 7: Average Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (US$/Barrel)
49 Western Centre for Economic Research University of Alberta, ATB Financial Business Sentiments Index, Where is the Alberta Economy Going?, 2009 Quarter 3, Number 125, June 2009, p.12. 50 Gasearch Energy Intelligence, www.gasearch.com/onp.php
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
According to Export Development Canadaʼs (EDC) Export Forecast Spring 2009, Albertaʼs energy exports, which comprise three-quarters of Albertaʼs total merchandise exports, were projected to decline 40 per cent in 2009 in the wake of lower forecasted commodity pricing. In the Spring 2009 Forecast, EDC projected that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) would average $47 U.S. per barrel for 2009 but have recently increased their forecasted price to $55 U.S. per barrel.51 “The higher price would lessen an expected skid in the value of Canada's petroleum exports…We're still not looking at going back up into triple digits in an awful hurry here, given market conditions”52 As WTI crude oil prices have increased since the first quarter of 2009, several existing projects, which were previously on hold, have changed their status. Imperialʼs Kearl Lake and Connacherʼs Great Divide projects have been reactivated in light of the changing conditions and CNRLʼs Horizon project and OPTI/Nexen Long Lake project have neared the completion of their construction phase and will be brought online during 2009. The Alberta Government has attempted to further stimulate activity in the oilsands by extending the deadline to two incentive programs, one for existing well pads and the other for new projects. As with oil prices, natural gas prices are also on decline after peaking at $ $9.84 C$ per GJ in July 2008. Unlike the price of crude oil, natural gas prices53 have continued to decline since oil prices have begun to recover. Natural gas prices averaged $3.41 C$ per GJ in April 2009, down 15 per cent from the previous month and down nearly 60 per cent from the same month of 2008. High inventories and surging supplies from shale gas deposits in Texas, Louisiana, and British Columbia are contributing to the fall in prices. “Plunging demand and rising supply in the US has seen underground natural gas storage surge. Working off these inventories will take time, but the supply-side has reacted dramatically. Companies like EnCana, Shell and ConocoPhillips have all cut their gas spending plans. The ensuing dive in drilling activity here in Canada and the US will hit North American production in a big way, showing up in lower inventories some time in 2010 and allowing prices to rise. Although there are considerable risks to our price forecast, the out- look for production is clearly negative.”54 Current natural gas prices are at a level where some wells are unprofitable. Many producers, including EnCana have capped wells as a result, reducing royalties to the province. Natural gas royalties are forecast to drop from $6 billion in 2008 to $3.7 billion this fiscal year.55 The Conference Board of Canada projects natural gas production to fall 6 per cent in 2009 and then fall on average 3.1 per cent annually from 2010 to 2013.56
51 Jones, Jeffrey. (Reuters). Canada export agency sees $70 oil as unsustainable. Interview with Peter Hall. June 9th, 2009. 52 Ibid Quote of EDC Chief economist Peter Hall 53 Alberta energy. The Alberta Natural Gas Reference Price (ARP) is a monthly weighted average field price of all Alberta gas sales, as determined by the Alberta Department of Energy through a survey of actual sales transaction. The price is used for royalty purposes. 54 Export Development Canada, Global Export Forecast – Spring 2009, p.58. 55 The Globe and Mail, Weak gas prices a snag in Alberta aid program, Katherine OʼNeil and David Ebner, July 9, 2009. 56 Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook Spring 2009, p.41.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Figure 8: Average Price of Natural Gas (C$/GJ)
Source: Alberta Energy, Alberta Gas Reference Price History
The average number of active drilling rigs in Alberta totaled 59 in June 2009, an 87 per cent increase from the 32 active rigs the previous month, but a 56 per cent decrease year over year.57 According to the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors (CAODC), 92 drilling rigs were active in Western Canada during the second quarter of 2009, which is 11 per cent of its 859 total rigs. The number of active drilling sites has decreased 40 per cent from the second quarter in 2008. The CAODC is forecasting the active drilling rig count in Western Canada will average 214 in the third quarter of 2009 and 248 in the fourth quarter of 2009. On an annual basis, the average number of active rigs will decrease to 219 in 2009, from 351 in 2008, while overall rig utilization will decrease to 26 per cent in 2009, from 40 per cent in 2008.58 “Measured in terms of wells drilled, the forecast is now 8,787 – some 2,400 fewer wells than the 11,176 shown in February. This is a 21% downgrade in the outlook. When compared with the October 2008 projection, it is a 39% decrease in the anticipated well count.”59
57 Alberta Finance and Enterprise, Weekly Economic Review, July 3, 2009. 58 Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors, 2009 Forecast revised. Available at http://www.caodc.ca/forcasts.htm 59 Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors, News Release, CAODC Downgrades Drilling Outlook – 2009, July 7, 2009, p.1.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
In its revised forecast, the CAODC noted that drilling activity is increasingly being focused in deep gas and unconventional oil opportunities. “This probably means that the shale gas plays in BC and deep oil in Saskatchewan will gain at the expense of conventional drilling in Alberta.”60 As of April 2009, over 1,000 major construction projects worth $234 billion are either planned, underway, or have been recently completed in Alberta. Approximately 41 projects worth $131 billion are oilsands related, 30 projects worth $11.4 billion are pipeline related, 10 projects worth $1.2 billion are oil and gas related, five projects worth $4.8 billion are mining related, 13 projects worth $1.6 billion are biofuels related, and three projects worth $120 million are petrochemicals related. 61 Close to 60 projects were on hold across the province as of April 2009, including 16 oilsands projects, one pipelines project, one oil and gas project, and one mining project. Inflation In Alberta, consumer prices declined 0.7 per cent year over year in May 2009, after falling 0.7 per cent in April 2009. Growth in consumer prices slowed in all provinces year over year in April 2009, with the largest slowdown recorded in Alberta. The main contributors to the decline in consumer prices in Alberta in May 2009 came from steeper declines in natural gas for heating purposes (-42 per cent) and gasoline (-28 per cent). Nationally, consumer prices rose 0.1 per cent year over year in May 2009, down from the 0.4 per cent increase in April 2009. “Although Alberta is already in a deflationary environment and Canada is headed in that direction, there is no cause for alarm. This is not a permanent broad-based deflation, and is almost entirely due to spiking energy prices in the spring and summer of 2008. This is completely different from broad goods, service and wage-based deflation, which is bad news and does not appear to be happening.”62 The most recent forecasts for consumer price index change in Alberta range from -1.1 per cent to 1.1 per cent in 2009, and from 1.1 per cent to 3.0 per cent in 2010. The Conference Board of Canada forecasts consumer prices in Alberta to rise on average 0.6 per cent in 2009, and 2.3 per cent in 2010.63
60 ATB Financial, Daily Economic Comment, Drilling in the Doldrums, Dan Sumner, July 8, 2009. 61 Alberta Finance and Enterprise, Inventory of Alberta Major Projects Summary, April 30th, 2009. 62 ATB Financial, Daily Economic Comment, The Trend Continues, Dan Sumner, June 18, 2009. 63 The Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook Winter 2009, p.37.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Figure 9: CPI All-items Index April and May 2009 (Canada and provinces) Percentage change from the same month of the previous year
Housing Market Total housing starts in Alberta declined to 1,011 in May 2009, a 63 per cent decrease from May 2008. From January to May 2009, housing starts in Alberta totaled 4,136, a 69 per cent decrease from the first five months of 2008.64 Year to date to the end of May 2009, total housing starts decreased 79 per cent year over year in the Calgary CMA, 59 per cent in the Edmonton CMA, 58 per cent in Wood Buffalo, 36 per cent in Grande Prairie, 56 per cent in Lethbridge, 59 per cent in Medicine Hat, and 67 per cent in Red Deer. Total housing starts in Alberta are forecast to reach 17.889 units in 2009, a 39 per cent decline from 2008. The housing market is expected to stabilize and recover in 2010 as renewed investment arrives with interest in the oilsands and existing stock of housing decreases. In 2010, there are 25,262 units forecast to be built in Alberta, representing a 41 per cent increase over the 2009 forecast.65 The number of Alberta homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) declined by 21 per cent from 2007 to 2008 to 56,399 units due to lower consumer demand and excess supply in the market. This trend is expected to continue. In 2009, only 44,000 units are forecast to be sold through MLS, 22 per cent below the 2008 sales levels. Average resale prices in the province are also forecast to decline by 8.6 per cent to $322,500.66
64 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Preliminary Housing Start Data, June 2009. 65 Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook Spring 2009, p.58 66 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Market Outlook, Prairie Region Highlights, Second Quarter of 2009, p.6
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
First quarter 2009 MLS sales in Alberta are 32 per cent lower than the same period in 2008 - only 9,541 units have been sold compared to 13,982 units in 2008. In the first quarter of 2009, MLS sales declined 63 per cent in the M.D. of Wood Buffalo, 36 per cent in Grande Prairie, 34 per cent in Lethbridge, 33 per cent in Medicine Hat, and 29 per cent in Red Deer. MLS sales in Alberta are forecast to increase 9.1 per cent to 48,000 units in 2010 and average resale prices are forecast to increase 2.0 per cent to $329,000.67 “A more supportive economic environment combined with improved affordability through price reductions and lower mortgage rates should spur a modest recovery in Alberta home sales as we head towards the latter months of 2009 and into 2010.”68 New housing prices in Canada decreased 0.6 per cent month over month in April 2009, continuing the steady decline from a high in September 2008. Two Alberta cities were among the top three in experiencing the largest declines in the country. Edmontonʼs new housing prices declined 0.9 per cent month over month in April 2009, while Calgaryʼs new house prices declined 0.8 per cent. Year over year, the decline was more pronounced, with Edmonton declining 12.5 per cent and Calgary declining 8.8 per cent. New fire code regulations are believed to have driven up the cost of building houses in Alberta, but competitive market pricing appears to be negating this effect.69 Building Permits The value of building permits issued in Canada (an indicator of where construction activity is going) increased 15 per cent month over month and surpassed the $5 billion mark in May 2009 - the first time since October 2008, according to Statistics Canada.70 Alberta had the largest growth in the value of total building permits issued in the month of May 2009. The value of Alberta building permits increased 48 per cent month over month to $1.1 billion, and growth was experienced in all components except single-family dwellings. The largest gains of any city in Canada were felt in Calgary as building permits doubled to $626.3 million. Edmonton showed almost no change from the previous month growing only 0.9 per cent to $234.2 million.71 “Most of the increase (in Calgary) came from institutional and commercial permits, as the value of non-residential applications jumped fivefold. That was due in most part to the South Health Campus, with permits totaling about $388 million.”72 Non-Residential Building Construction Investment in non-residential building construction73 in Alberta reached $2.46 billion in the second quarter of 2009, a 7.4 per cent decrease from the previous quarter, and a 6.5 per cent decrease year over year. Alberta recorded a 5.1 per cent quarter over quarter increase in institutional investment in the second quarter of 2009, which was offset by a 9.8 per cent decrease in commercial investment and a 15.8 per cent decrease in industrial investment.74
67 Ibid p.6. 68 Ibid p.2. 69 Statistics Canada, The Daily, New Housing Price Index April 2009, June 10, 2009. 70 Statistics Canada Building Permits May 2009, July 7, 2009. 71 Ibid. 72 Calgary Herald, Calgary leads jump in building permit values, South Health Campus fattens value in May, Lisa Schmidt, July 8, 2009. 73 Includes industrial, commercial and institutional investment. Statistics Canada, The Daily, Investment in non- residential building construction, Second quarter 2009, July 14, 2009. 74 Statistics Canada, Non-residential building construction investment, by building type, by province and territory (quarterly), CANSIM table 026-0016, July 14, 2009.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
“Investment in the construction of commercial buildings declined for the second consecutive quarter (in Canada), mainly as a result of lower spending on the construction of office buildings and retail and wholesale outlets in Alberta and British Columbia.”75 Retail and Wholesale Trade After three consecutive monthly increases, retail sales in April 2009 decreased by 0.8 per cent to $33.5 billion in Canada.76 The automotive sector recorded the largest sales decline (-1.9 per cent), which was followed by the decline in food and beverage stores (-1.0 per cent). Retail sales declined in six provinces in April 2009. Declines in Quebec (-2.5 per cent) and Ontario (-1.1 per cent) were partially offset by higher sales in British Columbia (+1.3 per cent) and Alberta (+0.6 per cent).77 Following a 1.9 per cent decrease in March 2009, retail sales in Alberta rose 0.6 per cent in April 2009 and reached $4.59 billion.78 On a year over year basis, retail sales in Alberta were down 10.5 per cent compared to the sales in April 2008. Retail sales are a good indicator of consumer sentiment. The economic downturn has had Albertans pulling back spending since the Fall of 2008, from sales of $5.1 billion in September 2008 to sales of $4.6 billion in April 2009. Wholesale sales in Canada (current dollars) decreased 0.6 per cent to $40.3 billion in April 2009, while volume of wholesale sales were up 0.5 per cent in the same period.79 The main contributors to the overall decline were lower sales in the building materials sector and the machinery and electronic equipment sector. “Canadian wholesalers sell to both the domestic and international markets, and are active importers and exporters. The increase in the volume of sales, compared with the decrease in current dollar sales in April, reflects lower prices paid by wholesalers for imported goods, and the effect of the appreciation of the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar during the month.”80 Wholesale sales were down in all provinces except Newfoundland and Labrador (+2.1 per cent) and British Columbia (+1.2 per cent) in April 2009. Wholesale sales in Alberta reached $5.08 billion in April 2009, a slight decline of 1.0 per cent month over month.81 Compared to the same period of the previous year, wholesale sales in Alberta were down by 9.1 per cent. Average Weekly Earnings The average weekly earnings of Alberta payroll employees increased 3.2 per cent to $946.66 in the 12 months to April 2009.82 Over the same period, the national increase in average weekly earnings of payroll employees was 1.4 per cent to $820.53. Although down by 1.8 per cent compared to the previous month, Alberta continued to have the highest wages in Canada in April 2009. “Although the trend for most of 2008 and 2009 has been towards increasing wages, with growing unemployment in the province, wages seem likely to settle down and catch their breath. This will be welcomed by many Alberta employers who have suffered labour shortages and have been forced to pay employees wages much high than in other provinces.”83
75 Statistics Canada, Investment in non-residential building construction, Second quarter 2009, July 14, 2009. 76 Statistics Canada, Retail Sales April 2009, Catalogue No. 63-005-X. 77 lbid. 78 lbid. 79 Statistics Canada, Wholesale Trade April 2009, Catalogue No. 63-008-X. 80 lbid. 81 lbid. 82 Statistics Canada, The Daily, Payroll employment, earning and hours April 2009 (preliminary), June 25, 2009. 83 ATB Financial, Weekly Economic Bulletin, June 26, 2009, p.2.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Figure 10: Average weekly earnings of payroll employees April 2009 (Canada and provinces, seasonally adjusted)
Source: Statistics Canada
Bankruptcies and Employment Insurance Business and personal bankruptcies in Alberta totaled 1,025 in April 2009, down by 8.9 per cent from a month earlier but up 70 per cent from the same month of the last year.84 Nationally, business and personal bankruptcies in April 2009 totaled 14,455, posting a 32 per cent increase year over year. In April 2009, 996 Albertans filed for personal bankruptcy, up 78 per cent year over year. “People bought big houses during the boom when interest rates were low, and if their hours have been cut or theyʼve lost their jobs they canʼt afford the payments. Itʼs also people living on the edge with credit card debt, and itʼs caught up with them.”85 Twenty-nine Alberta businesses filed for bankruptcy in the same month, down 31 per cent compared to a year earlier.86 The number of Canadians receiving regular Employment Insurance (EI) benefits increased to 697,000 in April 2009, up a modest 2.7 per cent from a month earlier, and the smallest increase seen in six months.87 Among all provinces, the fastest rate of increase (month over month) in the number of people receiving regular EI benefits was registered in Alberta (+16.3 per cent) and Saskatchewan (+12.2 per cent).88 The number of regular beneficiaries in Alberta reached 48,310 in April 2009, up 192 per cent compared to the same month of the previous year.
84 Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada, Insolvency: Statistics in Canada – April 2009. 85 Calgary Herald, Personal bankruptcies soar in Alberta, David Finlayson, EdmontonJournal.com, July 7, 2009. 86 lbid. 87 Statistics Canada, The Daily, Employment Insurance, June 22, 2009. 88 lbid.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
“The recent spike in Alberta EI beneficiaries is somewhat unsurprising, given the acute nature of the 2008/ʼ09 recession. Perspective is always necessary, and the impressive jump in claims is partly a function of the recession and partly that the number of claims was at an unsustainably low level between 2005-2008. Still, you have to go back to March 1995 to find a month when more Albertans were on EI.”89 Population Albertaʼs population increased by 21,357 from January 1, 2009 to April 1, 2009, and reached an estimated total of 3,653,840.90 With a 0.59 per cent population growth observed in the first quarter of 2009, Alberta was the nationʼs leader in population growth for the sixth consecutive quarter. Gains in net international and inter–provincial migration were the main drivers of population growth in Alberta. “In addition to leading the other provinces in natural increase, Alberta had a higher net inter–provincial migration rate than any other province. The province also had a net gain of 4,600 non-permanent residents, a record increase for a first quarter.”91 During the first quarter of 2009 a total of 7,144 people came to Alberta from other parts of Canada (on a net basis), compared with 2,761 in the same period of 2008. In addition, Alberta received a total of 8,801 net international migrants during the same period. “Despite Albertaʼs cooling economy, migrants are still choosing to move to the province (Alberta) because the job market here is in better shape than most other places in the country (particularly Ontario).”92 On an annual basis, Albertaʼs population grew by 2.71 per cent from 3.56 million in April 2008 to 3.65 million in April 2009. The annual population growth rate (2.71 per cent) recorded in Alberta was more than double the national rate at 1.23 per cent.
CALGARY REGION ECONOMY The global economic woes have finally hit Calgaryʼs economy, which will decline in 2009 for the first time since 1989. After sluggish performance in 2008, real GDP for the Calgary region economy is projected to decline by 0.1 per cent in 2009. A significant decline in energy prices and the generally negative global economic conditions have eroded local consumer and business confidence. As a result, declining retail sales have joined a slump in residential construction as the sectors leading the decline. 93 Calgaryʼs economic growth over the past 13 years has been pushed by exceedingly strong growth in the services sector. However, the services sector is projected to decline in 2009 by 1.6 per cent with employment in this sector declining by 1.4 per cent. All components of the services sector, except non- commercial services, are expected to be hit with a drop in employment in 2009, including: transport and communications; wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance and real estate; commercial services; and public administration.94 Of course, the weakening and contraction of the services sector is due, in large part, to a decline in energy. Reduced demand for energy products and slumping prices have put the oil and gas sector in Calgary into reverse gear. In addition to changes in the provincial royalty regime and reduced global demand for energy,
89 ATB Financial, Automatic Stabilizers Hard at Work, Dan Sumner, June 22, 200. 90 Statistics Canada, Quarterly Demographic Estimates January to March 2009, Catalogue No. 91-002-X. 91 lbid. 92 ATB Financial, Daily Economic Comment, Still a Destination of Choice, Todd Hirsch, June 24, 2009. 93 Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook 1 Spring 2009, February 2009, p.16. 94 lbid.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
this sector has also been hit by the credit crunch, which has added difficulty for companies looking to finance future capital investments. As a result, several major projects have been put on hold. “Calgary energy companies have had to make the difficult decisions to cut capital expenditure, and have seen a dramatic drop in demand and revenues. This has resulted in a reduction in employment in the oil and gas sector, as well as employment along the entire value chain of energy including finance, legal, consulting and products and services. All of this has had a significant ripple effect throughout the whole economy, particularly in the labour market.” 95 The construction industry felt the economic downturn in 2008 and contracted by 3.8 per cent. The residential sector has been particularly hard hit with a drop in demand for housing that caused new house construction to slow considerably. Non-residential construction has also weakened but is expected to remain relatively stable in 2009. According to the Conference Board of Canada, new home construction in Calgary is expected to be about half of the average rate of construction between 1999 and 2008. As well, the non- residential construction industry is expected to decline by 5.3 per cent in 2009.96 While the Calgary region economy is expected to slump in 2009, the prospects for recovery look bright for 2010. The Conference Board of Canada is projecting economic growth to jump to over three per cent in 2010 and four per cent in 2011 and remain strong through to 2013. Calgary Economic Development is perhaps a bit more cautious about the timing and strength of local economic recovery.97 “Recovery is going to happen. When, no one knows. Balance sheet recessions, like the one we are in, have proven historically to be longer and slower to recover. It might take another 6, 12 or 18 months before we can truly say that the worst might be behind us. And when it does, it likely will be a slow, steady recovery that will look incredibly modest. In the long-term however, more modest growth rates might become the new norm, and ultimately be what we need to keep us honest."98
95 Calgary Economic Development, State of the Economy: Calgary Semi-Annual Economic Review, June 2009, p. 2. 96 Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook 1 Winter 2009, February 2009, p.17. 97 lbid. 98 Calgary Economic Development, State of the Economy: Calgary Semi-Annual Economic Review, June 2009, p. 7.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Figure 11: Real Gross Domestic Product Forecast: Calgary (% change, 2002 dollars)
Source: Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook 1 Spring 2009
CONTRIBUTORY INFLUENCES A number of factors influence the Calgary economy.
Inflation
Consumer prices in the Calgary CMA declined by 0.3 per cent year over year in April 2009. This compares to a general decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Alberta of 0.7 per cent over the same period.99 For the entire year of 2009, inflation for the Calgary region is expected to be below 1.0 per cent, just slightly above the average for Alberta (0.6 per cent). Looking ahead, the Conference Board of Canada is projecting inflation in Calgary to be modest over the next four years, running between 2.1 per cent and 2.3 per cent from 2010 to 2013.
99 Alberta Economic Development, Monthly Economic Review, June 2009, p. 11.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Figure 12: Consumer Price Index Forecast: Calgary (% change)
Source: Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook 1 Spring 2009
Housing Market Total housing starts in the Calgary CMA declined 67.7 per cent year over year in May 2009. Most of this decline is due to the significant drop in multi-family housing starts. Year-to-date May, multi-family housing starts are down from 5,362 in 2008 to 372 in 2009, a drop of 93 per cent. In contrast, single-family housing starts are down from 1,878 in 2008 to 1,175 in 2009, a drop of 37 per cent.100 While not as severe, these declines in housing starts are typical across the province. Total housing starts in the Edmonton CMA have decreased by almost 60 per cent year to date to the end of May, from 3,584 units in 2008 to 1,462 units in 2009. Single-detached starts decreased 24 per cent year over year while multi-family starts dropped by 75 per cent.101
100 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Now Calgary CMA, June 2009. 101 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Now Edmonton CMA, June 2009.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Table 8: Housing Starts - January to May
Single Multiple Total % Change Area 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009–2008 Alberta (10,000+) 2,569 4,146 1,202 8,443 3,771 12,589 -70.0% Calgary CMA 1,175 1,878 372 5,362 1,547 7,240 -78.6% Calgary City 869 1,378 250 4,841 1,119 6,219 -82.0% Edmonton CMA 849 1,110 613 2,474 1,462 3,584 -59.2% Edmonton City 435 549 361 1,705 796 2,254 -64.7%
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The number of single–family metro102 homes sold in Calgary totaled 1,837 in June 2009, up 16 per cent from a month earlier. This continues a string of single-family house sale increases now reaching six months. The median price of a single-family metro home in Calgary was $399,000 in June 2009, up 2 per cent from a month earlier, but down 2 per cent from a year earlier. The number of metro condo sales for June 2009 was 738, up 13 per cent from the previous month, and up 33 per cent from the same month of 2008. The median price of a Calgary metro condo was $265,500 in June 2009. Compared to the June 2008 median price of $282,000, this was a 6 per cent year over year decrease.103 CMHC is forecasting MLS sales in the Calgary CMA will decline to 17,000 units in 2009, a 27 per cent decrease from sales in 2008.104 MLS sales in the Calgary CMA are forecast to pick up by 2010 and total 18,700 units. This projection has been revised down from 22,000 units reported in the previous quarter. However, CMHC is expecting that a general improvement in economic conditions and job growth will help to spur sales. “A rebound in employment and oil prices will have a significant impact on the housing market in Calgary--we expect this wonʼt fully take effect until the beginning of 2010.”105 The Calgary CMA recorded an 8.8 per cent year over year drop in new home prices in April 2009 compared with a 3.0 per cent decline nationally. Between March 2009 and April 2009, new home prices declined 0.8 per cent in Calgary. Edmonton recorded the largest year over year decline in new homes prices in April 2009 at 12.2 per cent followed by Saskatoon (-11.9 per cent), Vancouver (-9.0 per cent), and Victoria (-7.0 per cent). St. Johnʼs (17.0 per cent) and Quebec City (7.0 per cent) had the largest annual gain in prices for new homes in Canada in April 2009.106 New home prices are expected to continue to moderate in the Calgary CMA in 2009 and 2010. The average price of a new single-detached house is projected to decline to $550,000 in 2009, reflecting a 5.5 per cent price drop from 2008. As well, prices are projected to drop another 2.7 per cent in 2010.107
102 Calgary Real Estate Board – all Calgary metro MLS statistics include properties listed and sold only within Calgary City limits. 103 Calgary Real Estate Board, Calgary Home Sales Increase for Sixth Consecutive Month, July 2, 2009. 104 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Market Outlook Calgary CMA, Spring 2009, p. 4. 105 Calgary Real Estate Board, Real Estate News, Volume 27, Issue 28, July 9, 2009. 106 Statistics Canada, The Daily, New Housing Price Index April 2009, June 10, 2009. 107 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing Market Outlook Calgary CMA, Spring 2009, p. 2.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Building Permits The total value of building permits in the Calgary CMA in May 2009 increased 102 per cent to $626.3 million ($101 million were residential and $525 million were non–residential), compared to the previous month.108 While residential building permits dropped by over one-third from the previous month, this was more than made up by a 3.7 times increase in non-residential building permit values. Thirteen out of 34 metropolitan areas in Canada recorded month over month declines in the total value of building permits in May 2009, with Peterborough declining 61 per cent, Saint John declining 59 per cent and Brantford declining 41 per cent. Windsor reported the most significant gain among CMAs month over month in May 2009, increasing 795 per cent.109 Non-Residential Building Construction Investment in non-residential building construction in the Calgary CMA fell 6.2 per cent quarter over quarter to $1.12 billion in the second quarter of 2009. Year over year, investment decreased 10.2 per cent in the Calgary CMA. “Investment fell in 19 of the 34 census metropolitan areas. The largest drops were posted in Calgary, Vancouver and Montréal, and were mainly due to declines in commercial construction projects.”110 Office Market The overall office vacancy rate for Calgary increased to 5.1 per cent (7.6 per cent including sublease space) in the first quarter of 2009. This is close to the average office vacancy rates in Calgary in the first quarter of 2005, before the latest economic expansion occurred. In spite of rising vacancy rates, there seems to be considerable confidence in the office leasing market, as all of the office towers currently under construction are going ahead, regardless of pre-leasing arrangements that may have been made. The vacancy rate for Downtown Calgary was 3.1 per cent (5.6 per cent including sublease space) in the first quarter of 2009. Looking at the specific classes of buildings, for the first time in over a year there was vacancy in class AA (0.1 per cent, or 1.2 per cent including sublease), class A had a vacancy of 2.0 per cent (4.4 per cent including sublease), class B had a vacancy of 6.6 per cent (10.0 per cent including sublease), and class C had a vacancy of 5.3 per cent (8.6 per cent including sublease) in the first quarter of 2009.111 “Vacancy in Downtown Calgary, especially sublease availability, continued to rise due to several factors. Option space was not being exercised, corporations were downsizing their space requirements, and merger and acquisitions started to take place in the junior oil and gas industry.”112 In the first quarter of 2009, the vacancy rate for Beltline Calgary was 5.6 per cent (8.3 per cent including sublease space). The Suburban North market of Calgary had a vacancy rate of 12.6 per cent (14.3 per cent including sublease), while the Suburban South market of Calgary had a vacancy rate of 7.0 per cent (10.1 per cent including sublease).113 Average asking net rental rates in Downtown Calgary in the first quarter of 2009 ranged from $45 per square foot for class AA space to $20 per square foot for class C space. For new construction, the asking net rental rate averaged $37 per square foot. Average asking net rental rates in Beltline Calgary ranged from $30 per
108 Statistics Canada, Building Permits – May 2009, Catalogue No. 64–001–X, p.18. 109 Statistics Canada, Building Permits – May 2009, Catalogue No. 64–001–X. 110 Statistics Canada, Investment in non-residential building construction, Second quarter 2009, July 14, 2009. 111 Avison Young, Calgary Office Market Report – First Quarter 2009. 112 lbid. 113 lbid,
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
square foot for new construction to $17 per square foot for class C space in the first quarter of 2009. Over the same period, the asking net rental rate for new construction averaged $25.50 per square foot in the Suburban South market, and $22 per square foot in the Suburban North market of Calgary. In general, net rental rates have dropped almost 9 per cent over the last quarter. “The outlook for Calgary remains cautious as the momentum seen in the past few years is in retreat. There are currently 27 office buildings under construction in Calgary, containing approximately 8 msf, of which 33% remains available for lease. Meanwhile, of the 2.9 msf of office space completed in the city in 2008, 18% remains available for lease.”114
Table 9: Calgary Office Market Q1 2009
Average Asking Net Category Vacancy Rate Rental Rates (psf)
Downtown 5.58% New Construction $37.00 AA Class $45.00 A Class $37.00 B Class $25.00 C Class $20.00 Beltline 8.32% New Construction $30.00 A Class $26.00 B Class $21.00 C Class $17.00 Suburban South 10.13% New Construction $25.50 A Class $24.00 B Class $19.00 C Class $13.00 Suburban North 14.31% New Construction $22.00 A Class $21.00 B Class $16.00 C Class $12.00 Source: Avison Young, Calgary Office Market Report First Quarter 2009
114 Avison Young, Calgary Office Market Report – First Quarter 2009, p.1.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Major Projects As of June 2009, Alberta Finance and Enterprise estimates that there are over 240 projects worth $29.3 billion that are either proposed, announced or under construction in Calgary.115 This is down somewhat from the March 2009 figure of $31.7 billion. The major projects in Calgary worth $1.0 billion and over include:
• $2.25 billion ʻStonegate Landing' retail, office and industrial development, WAM Developments Group/ Aimco – Announced (Phase 1 occupancy late 2009)
• $1.5 billion ʻThe Bowʼ Office Tower, Matthews Southwest Developments – Under Construction • $1.4 billion Hospital for South Calgary, Calgary Health Region – Under Construction • $1.4 billion Shepard energy centre, natural gas fired generating plant, ENMAX Corp. – Proposed • $1.3 billion New International Transboarder Concourse, Calgary Airport Authority – Proposed • $1.1 billion ʻRamsay Exchange' commercial, retail and residential development, Torode Commercial Ltd. – Proposed
• $1.0 billion ʻCalgary City Centre' development, Cadillac Fairview Corp. – Proposed • $1.0 billion Edworthy Club health club, Dolemo Developments – Proposed
115 Alberta Finance and Enterprise, Inventory of Major Alberta Projects, June 2009.
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TRENDS IN THE LABOUR MARKET This section examines labour market information for Canada, Alberta, and the Calgary Region. The information provided in this section is based upon Statistics Canadaʼs Labour Force Survey.
CANADA
Q2 2009 While employment in Canada in June 2009 was well below its peak of close to 17,200,000 in October 2008, there was a notable moderation in employment declines in the second quarter of 2009. Employment in Canada decreased by 62,800 quarter over quarter in the second quarter of 2009, compared to a quarter over quarter decline of 239,000 in the first three months of 2009. Employment in Canada has declined by 370,000 since October 2008, with Ontario (-232,400), British Columbia (-54,300), and Alberta (-45,700) recording the largest employment declines. Saskatchewan is the only province that has recorded an upward trend in employment since October 2008 (+5,100).116
Table 10: Labour Force Survey Statistics - Canada
Quarterly Annual Canada Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Change Q2 2008 Change Population 27,217,600 27,250,000 27,292,300 27,253,300 27,159,000 94,300 26,873,500 379,800 Labour Force 18,338,600 18,380,600 18,416,700 18,378,600 18,300,700 77,900 18,244,300 134,300 Employed 16,874,000 16,832,200 16,824,800 16,843,700 16,906,500 -62,800 17,129,200 -285,500 Unemployed 1,464,600 1,548,400 1,591,900 1,535,000 1,394,200 140,800 1,115,100 419,900 Participation Rate 67.4% 67.5% 67.5% 67.4% 67.4% 0.0% 67.9% -0.5% Employment Rate 62.0% 61.8% 61.6% 61.8% 62.3% -0.5% 63.7% -1.9% Unemployment Rate 8.0% 8.4% 8.6% 8.4% 7.6% 0.8% 6.1% 2.3% Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted
116 TD Bank Financial Group, TD Economics, Provincial Economic Monitor, July 10, 2009.
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Figure 13: Employment in Canada
Canadaʼs unemployment rate increased from 8.0 per cent in April 2009 to 8.6 per cent in June 2009, averaging 8.4 per cent for the second quarter of 2009, as more people looked for work. Canadaʼs labour force expanded by approximately 78,000 in the second quarter of 2009, compared to the previous quarter.
Figure 14: Unemployment Rate in Canada
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Employment by Type of Work, Gender and Age Full-time employment was down an estimated 105,600 in the second quarter of 2009, compared to the previous quarter, while part-time employment was up by 42,700. Year over year, part-time employment has increased by 90,100 (2.9 per cent) while full-time employment has declined by 375,700 (-2.7 per cent). Employment declined for both men (-47,900) and women (-15,000) on a quarterly basis in the second quarter of 2009. Year over year, employment declines for men (-2.7 per cent) exceeded those for women (-0.6 per cent) in the second quarter of 2009. In the second quarter of 2009, employment for youth aged 15 – 24 years declined by 40,600 from the previous quarter, or 1.6 per cent. In June 2009, the unemployment rate for youth reached 15.9 per cent, the highest in 11 years. Among all age groups, youth employment has been hit the hardest since October 2008. “Since the peak last October, employment among youths (aged 15 – 24) has fallen the fastest of all age groups, down 6.4%.”117 Self-employment is on the rise in Canada, growing 1.5 per cent since October 2008. In contrast, private sector employment has declined 3.3 per cent, and public sector employment has declined 1.4 per cent since October 2008. “Canadians are willing to do what it takes to earn a paycheck, even if they have to write it themselves.”118
Table 11: Employment in Canada by Type of Work, Gender and Age
Quarterly Annual Canada Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Change Q2 2008 Change Employment 16,874,000 16,832,200 16,824,800 16,843,700 16,906,500 -62,800 17,129,200 -285,500 Full-time 13,656,800 13,598,100 13,550,600 13,601,800 13,707,400 -105,600 13,977,500 -375,700 Part-time 3,217,100 3,234,100 3,274,200 3,241,800 3,199,100 42,700 3,151,700 90,100 Men 8,796,300 8,768,400 8,760,100 8,774,900 8,822,800 -47,900 9,015,600 -240,700 Women 8,077,700 8,063,800 8,064,700 8,068,700 8,083,700 -15,000 8,113,500 -44,800 15 - 24 years 2,479,000 2,466,700 2,433,400 2,459,700 2,500,300 -40,600 2,612,300 -152,600 25 years + 14,395,000 14,365,500 14,391,400 14,384,000 14,406,200 -22,200 14,516,900 -132,900 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted
Employment by Industry On a quarterly basis, employment in Canada declined by 62,800 in the second quarter of 2009, with the largest losses (in numbers) occurring in the manufacturing (-55,400) and construction industries (-34,100). Employment increases were recorded in seven industries quarter over quarter, including the other services industry (30,700), the information, culture and recreation industry (23,900) and the business, building and other support services industry (23,600). On an annual basis, employment was down in 11 industries in the second quarter of 2009, including manufacturing (-8.9 per cent), construction (-7.0 per cent), and natural resources (-6.9 per cent). Employment growth occurred in five industries on an annual basis, with the other services industry posting the strongest growth rate at 8.0 per cent.
117 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, June 2009, July 10, 2009. 118 CIBC World Markets, Canadians Hire themselves in June, Avery Shenfeld, July 10, 2009.
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Table 12: Employment in Canada by Industry
Quarterly Annual Canada Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Change Q2 2008 Change All Industries 16,843,700 16,906,500 -62,800 17,129,200 -285,500 Agriculture 326,400 317,200 9,200 326,700 -300 Natural resources 316,500 332,700 -16,200 340,100 -23,600 Utilities 149,100 145,400 3,700 152,400 -3,300 Construction 1,144,100 1,178,200 -34,100 1,229,600 -85,500 Manufacturing 1,799,300 1,854,700 -55,400 1,974,400 -175,100 Trade 2,623,700 2,639,800 -16,100 2,686,500 -62,800 Transportation & warehousing 826,800 841,300 -14,500 852,500 -25,700 Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing 1,074,100 1,088,900 -14,800 1,072,700 1,400 Professional, scientific & technical services 1,193,400 1,192,000 1,400 1,199,400 -6,000 Business, building & other support services 681,800 658,600 23,200 700,400 -18,600 Educational services 1,185,000 1,172,000 13,000 1,195,600 -10,600 Health care and social assistance 1,950,600 1,959,500 -8,900 1,896,200 54,400 Information, culture & recreation 777,300 753,400 23,900 759,900 17,400 Accommodation & food services 1,069,000 1,075,900 -6,900 1,076,200 -7,200 Other services 801,500 770,800 30,700 741,800 59,700 Public administration 925,300 925,900 -600 924,600 700 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted
ALBERTA
Q2 2009 Alberta accounted for approximately 20 per cent of the decline in employment in Canada in the second quarter of 2009, with employment in Alberta decreasing by 13,000 from the previous quarter. Year over year, employment in Alberta decreased by 18,300 or 0.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2009.
Table 13: Labour Force Statistics - Alberta
Quarterly Annual Alberta Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Change Q2 2008 Change Population 2,847,900 2,855,200 2,863,800 2,855,600 2,836,000 19,600 2,789,100 66,500 Labour Force 2,119,500 2,135,300 2,134,100 2,129,600 2,115,300 14,300 2,081,700 47,900 Employed 1,992,900 1,993,500 1,989,500 1,992,000 2,005,000 -13,000 2,010,300 -18,300 Unemployed 126,600 141,800 144,600 137,700 110,300 27,400 71,400 66,300 Participation Rate 74.4% 74.8% 74.5% 74.6% 74.6% 0.0% 74.6% 0.0% Employment Rate 70.0% 69.8% 69.5% 69.8% 70.7% -0.9% 72.1% -2.3% Unemployment Rate 6.0% 6.6% 6.8% 6.5% 5.2% 1.3% 3.4% 3.1% Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Albertaʼs participation rate119 was the highest in the country at 74.5 per cent in June 2009, 7.0 percentage points above the national average of 67.5 per cent. Newfoundland and Labrador had the lowest participation rate in June 2009 at 59.4 per cent. The participation rate is important in determining the number of individuals who are willing to work, are working, or are actively looking for work. Albertaʼs seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 6.0 per cent in April 2009 to 6.8 per cent in June 2009, averaging 6.5 per cent for the quarter. This is a 1.3 per cent increase from the first quarter of 2009, and a 3.1 per cent increase year over year. “The primary reason for the rising unemployment rate has been a surging labour force. Population growth in Alberta has increased the total pool of workers by 48,700 (+2.3%) over the last year120, while total employment is down by only 26,300 positions (-1.3%)121. That means more job-seekers are chasing fewer jobs.”122 All four western provinces had an unemployment rate below the national average of 8.6 per cent in June 2009. Saskatchewan was the only province with an unemployment rate below 5.0 per cent. Newfoundland and Labradorʼs unemployment rate approached 16 per cent in June 2009.
Figure 15: Unemployment Rates Q2 2009 (Canada and Provinces)
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted
119 Total labour force expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 years and over. 120 June 2008 to June 2009. 121 Ibid. 122 ATB Financial, Weekly Economic Bulletin, July 10, 2009, p.1.
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Employment by Type of Work, Gender and Age Full-time employment was down 53,500 year over year in the second quarter of 2009, while part-time employment was up 29,500. Along with a decrease in full-time employment, employment among men was down 29,100 year over year in the second quarter of 2009, and employment among youth aged 15 – 24 years was down 26,800. “Young Albertans under age 25 appear to be the hardest hit by the job-market downturn. The number of EI claimants in that age group has risen almost 450 per cent in the 12 months from May 2008. And men appear to be losing their jobs more frequently than women. Year-over-year from May 2008, the number of male EI claimants in Alberta rose 318 per cent, compared with a 166 per cent rise in claims by women.”123
Table 14: Employment in Alberta by Type of Work, Gender, and Age (unadjusted)
Annual Alberta Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Q2 2009 Q2 2008 Change Employment 1,966,900 2,000,700 2,024,000 1,997,200 2,021,200 -24,000 Full-time 1,596,800 1,647,400 1,671,900 1,638,700 1,692,200 -53,500 Part-time 370,100 353,300 352,200 358,500 329,000 29,500 Men 1,062,700 1,086,300 1,105,300 1,084,800 1,113,900 -29,100 Women 904,200 914,400 918,700 912,400 907,300 5,100 15 - 24 years 309,700 323,200 331,900 321,600 348,400 -26,800 25 - 64 years 1,605,400 1,623,400 1,634,600 1,621,100 1,616,700 4,400 65 years + 51,900 54,200 57,500 54,500 56,200 -1,700 Source: Alberta Employment and Immigration, Labour Force Statistics, Alberta
Employment by Industry On a year over year basis, nine industries in Alberta experienced employment declines in the second quarter of 2009, with the most significant decreases seen in the wholesale trade industry (-20.5 per cent or -18,400), manufacturing industry (-11.7 per cent or -16,200), professional, scientific and technical services industry (-10 per cent or -16,500) and construction industry (-8.7 per cent or -17,600). Strong employment growth occurred in information, culture and recreation (+15 per cent), public administration (+10.7 per cent), and accommodation and food services (+9 per cent) in the second quarter of 2009 on a year over year basis.
123 CBC News.ca, Albertaʼs rising jobless claims fuelled by young workers, men, July 28, 2009.
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Table 15: Employment in Alberta by Industry (unadjusted)
Annual Alberta Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Q2 2009 Q2 2008 Change All Industries 1,966,900 2,000,700 2,024,000 1,997,200 2,021,200 -24,000 Agriculture 56,500 61,600 53,400 57,200 61,300 -4,100 Forestry and logging with support activities 3,600 3,100 3,800 3,500 3,900 -400 Mining and oil and gas extraction 132,300 135,900 141,900 136,700 141,900 -5,200 Utilities 19,900 20,900 21,300 20,700 17,200 3,500 Construction 176,800 184,300 193,500 184,900 202,500 -17,600 Manufacturing 119,300 123,000 123,700 122,000 138,200 -16,200 Wholesale trade 71,100 70,600 72,700 71,500 89,900 -18,400 Retail trade 230,700 232,800 223,400 229,000 231,400 -2,400 Transportation & warehousing 105,800 105,300 111,100 107,400 102,700 4,700 Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing 116,300 109,300 113,600 113,100 114,300 -1,200 Professional, scientific & technical services 151,300 148,300 147,700 149,100 165,600 -16,500 Business, building & other support services 65,800 70,800 68,500 68,400 62,900 5,500 Educational services 136,200 140,800 133,800 136,900 130,500 6,400 Health care and social assistance 192,200 196,600 197,600 195,500 194,400 1,100 Information, culture & recreation 74,100 80,800 85,400 80,100 69,700 10,400 Accommodation & food services 125,900 125,300 132,300 127,800 117,300 10,500 Other services 98,900 97,400 101,800 99,400 92,500 6,900 Public administration 90,300 93,800 98,600 94,200 85,100 9,100 Source: Alberta Employment and Immigration, Labour Force Statistics, Alberta
Employment by Occupation There were year over year employment declines across six occupation categories in Alberta in the second quarter of 2009. The most significant declines occurred in occupations unique to primary industry (-10,800 or -8.8 per cent), business, finance and administrative occupations (-25,700 or -6.8 per cent), and trades, transport and equipment operator occupations (-18,300 or -4.9 per cent). Employment growth occurred in natural and applied sciences occupations (14,000 or 9.3 per cent), social science, education, government and religion occupations (13,500 or 8.8 per cent), health occupations (9,100 or 8.8 per cent), and sales and service occupations (2,200 or 0.5 per cent).
Table 16: Employment in Alberta by Occupation (unadjusted)
Annual Alberta Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Q2 2009 Q2 2008 Change All Occupations 1,966,900 2,000,700 2,024,000 1,997,200 2,021,200 -24,000 Management 158,200 157,300 156,900 157,500 160,400 -2,900 Business, finance and administrative 365,500 344,100 350,000 353,200 378,900 -25,700 Natural & applied sciences & related 162,900 161,800 167,600 164,100 150,100 14,000 Health 108,300 115,600 111,700 111,900 102,800 9,100 Social science, education, government & religion 161,000 170,800 168,800 166,900 153,400 13,500 Art, culture, recreation & sport 47,100 48,400 45,100 46,900 47,400 -500 Sales & service 466,300 469,700 474,000 470,000 467,800 2,200 Trades, transport & equipment operators & related 336,100 352,600 369,400 352,700 371,000 -18,300 Unique to primary industry 101,000 120,400 116,200 112,500 123,300 -10,800 Unique to processing, manufacturing & utilities 60,500 59,900 64,300 61,600 66,100 -4,500 Source: Alberta Employment and Immigration, Labour Force Statistics, Alberta
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
CALGARY CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA (CMA)
Q2 2009 Employment in the Calgary CMA was estimated at 694,400 in the second quarter of 2009, a decrease of 15,900 from the previous quarter and a decrease of 2,900 year over year. Calgaryʼs labour force also declined quarter over quarter (-3,100), however year over year the labour force increased by 22,600 in the second quarter of 2009.
Table 17: Labour Force Statistics - Calgary CMA
Quarterly Annual Calgary CMA Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Change Q2 2008 Change Population 963,800 966,200 968,800 966,300 959,400 6,900 941,600 24,700 Labour Force 743,500 741,900 742,700 742,700 745,800 -3,100 720,100 22,600 Employed 696,700 692,800 693,600 694,400 710,300 -15,900 697,300 -2,900 Unemployed 46,900 49,100 49,100 48,400 35,500 12,900 22,900 25,500 Participation Rate 77.1% 76.8% 76.7% 76.9% 77.7% -0.8% 76.5% 0.4% Employment Rate 72.3% 71.7% 71.6% 71.9% 74.0% -2.1% 74.1% -2.2% Unemployment Rate 6.3% 6.6% 6.6% 6.5% 4.8% 1.7% 3.2% 3.3% Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted (3 month moving average)
The unemployment rate in the Calgary CMA increased from 6.3 per cent in April 2009 to 6.6 per cent in June 2009, averaging 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of 2009. Among the 14 metropolitan areas shown in the following chart, the Calgary CMA had the sixth highest unemployment rate in June 2009, after Vancouver, St. Johnʼs, Montreal, Toronto, and Windsor. Edmontonʼs unemployment rate in June 2009 was just below that of Calgaryʼs at 6.5 per cent. “While Alberta's overall unemployment rate was below the national rate of 8.4 per cent in May, the number of people receiving regular EI benefits shot up in virtually all of the province's large centres from May 2008 to May 2009. In that time, the number of beneficiaries in Calgary increased from 4,100 to 18,200, and in Edmonton, from 4,300 to 16,000.”124
124 CBC News.ca, Alberta's rising jobless claims fuelled by young workers, men, July 28, 2009.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Figure 16: Unemployment Rates of Canadian Cities (CMAs)—June 2009
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
COMMUNITY PROFILES This section provides a detailed profile of the town of High River and highlights some of the happenings in the second quarter of 2009 in the communities surrounding Calgary.
TOWN OF HIGH RIVER The town of High River is located approximately 55 km south of Calgary along Highway #2, Albertaʼs main north/south travel corridor. Its employment base includes commercial services, manufacturing, construction, transportation, finance, and agriculture. Future growth in the area is forecast in commercial services, home- based business, and health services.125 In the summer of 2008, High River, along with four other municipalities in the Alberta Foothills Region (Okotoks, Black Diamond, Turner Valley, and the MD of Foothills) launched a joint marketing initiative, branded ʻRISEʼ, to build awareness of the opportunities in the Region and attract business investment. According to Shane Olson, Chair of the Working Group, "A key advantage of our cooperative effort is that we represent a critical mass of people and potential business opportunities to the business investment community. This gives us more profile, and a more strategically focused development path. Our communities have a common interest in pursuing types of economic activity that have a strong connection to our common desire for sustainable development. Weʼre not discouraging other forms of economic activity from taking place and it does not replace individual community marketing efforts, but this is a key way to focus limited marketing budgets on highly desired activity that might be less responsive to efforts made by the communities individually."126 The RISE initiative (www.albertafoothills.ca) will focus on promoting development in the following economic sectors, which reflect the competitive advantage and values of the Foothills Region: high tech; alternative energy; value added agriculture; environmental products and services; tourism; and home-based business. High River Town staff also updated its Municipal Development Plan (MDP) recently and presented it to the public at an open house in the Spring of 2009. The MDP, which is required by the Municipal Government Act, replaces the previous 1997 version. The Plan involves two stages: “The first stage, which is this document, replaces the existing MDP and introduces a broad range of policy initiatives that reflect the character of town people today wish to see in the future. The second stage, to be completed in 2010, will focus on two components: a growth management strategy for the town, and a comprehensive implementation strategy for the Plan.”127
125 www.albertafoothills.ca, Welcome to the Foothills Region, p.25. 126 Western Economic Diversification Canada, Alberta Foothills Region Communities Launch Joint Marketing Initiative, June 16, 2008. 127 www.highriver.ca, High River Town Plan, p.4.
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The Plan contains four key components: a community vision statement outlining how High River residents envision future community development; 15 goals related to the community vision, objectives related to each of the goals, and policies outlining how the objectives will be met. A senior planer with Longview Planning and Design, who has been to many MDP open houses, suggests the Town of High River is moving in the right direction. “Though itʼs hard, the rural small town feel can be preserved if planned properly and executed slowly. The updated version of High Riverʼs MDP suggests the Town in on the right track.”128
POPULATION According to the 2006 Federal Census figures, the population of High River has increased from 9,383 in 2001 to 10,716 in 2006, reflecting a growth of 14.2 per cent. High Riverʼs Municipal Census, conducted in the second quarter of 2009, showed an unofficial population of 11,582, an eight per cent increase from 2006. While the response rate to the Municipal Census was only 88 per cent, the increase in the population was good news as the Town receives approximately $300 in federal and provincial funding per resident per year.129
• On average, the population of High River is older when compared to the Calgary CMA and Alberta. According to the 2006 Census, the median age in High River is 40.7 years, compared to 35.7 years in the Calgary CMA and 36.0 years in Alberta.
• The percentage of High Riverʼs population between the ages of 25-44 has decreased from 27.1 per cent in 2001 to 24.4 per cent in 2006, while the 45-64 age group has increased from 23.8 per cent to 26.3 per cent over the same period.
• In 2006, just over 17 per cent of High Riverʼs population was aged 65 and over, 6.7 percentage points higher compared to the share in population aged 65 and over in the province.
• High River has slightly more female residents at 50.8 per cent of the population. • The percentage of households containing a couple with children has decreased from 30.7 per cent in 2001 to 28.1 per cent in 2006, whereas there was an increase in the percentage of households containing a couple without children and one–person households (35.4 per cent and 20.7 per cent in 2001 vs. 36.9 per cent and 21.0 per cent in 2006, respectively).
• The share of immigrants in High Riverʼs population has increased from 7.8 per cent in 2001 to 10.1 per cent in 2006. This is 6.1 per cent lower then the level of immigrants in the province.
• Aboriginals comprised 2.8 per cent of High Riverʼs population in 2006, up slightly from 2.2 per cent in 2001.
128 High River Times, Small town feel hard to preserve, Alyssa Burnham, Times Reporter. 129 High River Times, High Riverʼs population is up. Response rate much more successful than previous census, July 7, 2009.
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Table 18: Town of High River Population Statistics
Statistics Description
Population 10,716 2006 Federal Census 9,383 2001 Federal Census % Change 14.2% 2001 - 2006 Age Distribution 19.2% 0 - 14 years 12.9% 15 - 24 years 24.4% 25 - 44 years 26.3% 45 - 64 years 17.4% 65+ years Median Age 40.7 years Gender Distribution 49.2% Male 50.8% Female Household Characteristics 4,185 Total Private Households 28.1% Households containing a couple with children 36.9% Households containing a couple without children 21.0% One-person households 14.1% Other household types Average household size 2.5 Immigrant Status 89.7% Non-immigrants 10.1% Immigrants 0.2% Non-permanent residents Citizenship 96.9% Canadian citizens 3.0% Not Canadian citizens Language 95.6% English (spoken most often at home) 0.9% French 0.1% English and French 2.7% Non-official language Aboriginal Population 2.8% Aboriginal identity population 97.2% Non-Aboriginal population Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census of Population
EDUCATION Forty-seven per cent of High Riverʼs population 15 years of age and over reported having attained a post- secondary certificate, diploma, or degree according to the 2006 Census, significantly lower than the Calgary CMA at 56 per cent. Of the 47.3 per cent of the population with a post-secondary education:
• 19.7 per cent have a college or other non-university certificate or diploma, • 10.8 per cent have a university certificate or degree, • 12.6 per cent have an apprenticeship/trades certificate or diploma, and • 4.2 per cent have a university certificate or diploma below the bachelor level. Twelve per cent of High Riverʼs population 15 years of age and over reported their major field of study was architecture and engineering technologies, and 9.5 per cent said their major field of study was business/management/public administration. Fifty-three per cent of High Riverʼs population reported they had no post-secondary certificate, diploma, or degree.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Table 2: Town of High River Education Statistics
Statistics Description
Educational attainment 28.3% High school certificate or equivalent (15 years and over) 24.4% No certificate/diploma/degree 19.7% College or other non–university certifictae/diploma 12.6% Apprenticeship/trades certificate/diploma 10.8% University certificate/diploma/degree 4.2% University certificate/diploma below bachelor Major field of study 52.7% No postsecondary certificate/diploma/degree 12.0% Architecture/engineering technologies 9.5% Business/management/public admin 7.5% Health/parks/recreation/fitness 5.1% Education 3.6% Personal/protective/transportation services 2.5% Humanities 2.2% Social/behavioural sciences/law 1.4% Math/computer/information sciences 1.3% Agriculture/natural resources/conservation 1.3% Visual/performing arts/communications 0.8% Physical/life sciences technologies Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census of Population
LABOUR FORCE According to the 2006 Census, 67 per cent of the population 15 years of age and over in High River was in the labor force. The majority of High Riverʼs labour force in 2006 was in the other services, business services, health care and social services, and construction industries, altogether comprising 68.6 per cent of the labour force. Sales and service occupations toped the list of reported occupations (23.5 per cent), followed by trades, transport and equipment operator occupations (20.2 per cent), business, finance and administrative occupations (16.5 per cent), and management occupations (9.7 per cent).
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Table 3: Town of High River Labour Force Statistics
Statistics Description
Population (15 years and over) 8,565 5,735 In the labour force 5,585 Employed 150 Unemployed 2,835 Not in the labour force 2.6% Unemployment rate Labour Force by Industry 20.0% Other services 16.5% Business services 11.6% Retail trade 10.3% Health care &social services 10.2% Construction 9.0% Manufacturing 7.8% Agriculture & other resources 5.8% Educational services 4.3% Wholesale trade 4.3% Finance & real estate Labour Force by Occupation 23.5% Sales & Service 20.2% Trades, Transport & Equipment Operators 16.5% Business, finance & administration 9.7% Management 6.8% Processing, Manufacturing & Utilities 6.7% Social Science, Education, Gov, Religion 5.9% Health 4.5% Unique to Primary Industry 4.0% Natural & Applied Sciences 1.8% Art, Culture, Recreation & Sport Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census of Population
HOUSING Residential sales were virtually unchanged in High River in the second quarter of 2009 (94 units), compared to the same period in 2008 (95 units). Average residential prices declined slightly in the second quarter of 2009, recording a 7.6 per cent year over year decrease to just under $300,000. Resale homes in High River were on the market an average of 93 days from April to June 2009, more than three weeks longer than the second quarter of 2008 (69 days). In 2008, total housing starts in High River fell to 117 units, a 69 per cent decrease from 2007.130 Single- detached starts decreased 45 per cent year over year in 2008, while multi-family starts decreased 82 per cent.131 From January 1 – May 31, 2009, total housing starts in High River have amounted to 59 units, with 20 units as single-detached starts, and 39 units as multi-family starts.
130 www.highriver.ca, Town of High River Housing Starts, 1985 – 2009. 131 Ibid.
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Apartments were hard to come by in High River in April 2009. According to Canada Mortgage and Housing, there were a total of 8 vacant apartment units in High River in April, out of a total of 209 units, representing an overall vacancy rate of 4.0 per cent. Average rents for an apartment in High River have increased 6.3 per cent, from $745 per month in April 2008 to $791 per month in April 2009.132
MAJOR PROJECTS Approximately $35.4 million in major capital projects are either proposed or under construction in High River as of May 2009, including:
• the $16.7 million library expansion and theatre complex (proposed); • the $7.2 million Medicine Tree Manor addition (under construction); • the $6.0 million Supportive Housing Complex (proposed); and • the $5.5 million water plant upgrades (proposed).
OTHER COMMUNITIES IN THE CALGARY REGION Alberta Employment and Immigrationʼs Calgary Region includes the following communities surrounding the city of Calgary: Airdrie, Banff, Beiseker, Black Diamond, Canmore, Chestermere, Cochrane, Crossfield, High River, Irricana, Okotoks, and Turner Valley. This section highlights current information on housing, capital projects and noteworthy news items for each of these communities, where available.
HOUSING Housing starts in the Calgary CMA totaled 1,547 units in the first five months of 2009, down 79 per cent from the same period in 2008. Single detached starts totaled 1,175 units year to date in May 2009, a 37 per cent decline from the same period in 2008, while multi-family starts totaled 372 units, a 93 per cent decrease from the first five months of 2008. “Calgary experienced elevated levels of high-rise condominium starts during the first five months of 2008. Consequently future year-over-year multi-family comparisons will likely narrow in the months ahead.”133 The city of Calgary accounted for 72 per cent of the multi-family unit starts in the Calgary CMA year to date, Airdrie accounted for 12 per cent and Cochrane accounted for 12 per cent.
132 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Rental Market Report, Alberta Highlights, Spring 2009. 133 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Release, Calgaryʼs housing starts decline in May, June 8, 2009.
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Table 19: Housing Starts in the Calgary CMA - January to May
Single Multiple Total % Change Area 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009/2008 Airdrie 171 259 9 282 180 541 -66.7% Beiseker 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a Calgary City 869 1,378 250 4,841 1,119 6,219 -82.0% Chestermere Lake 22 64 0 29 22 93 -76.3% Cochrane 71 92 107 200 178 292 -39.0% Crossfield 0 3 0 0 0 3 -100.0% Irricana 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a MD Rockyview 42 82 6 10 48 92 -47.8% Total 1,175 1,878 372 5,362 1,547 7,240 -78.6% Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The total number of resale housing units sold in the towns outside Calgary134 in June 2009 totaled 472, a 22 per cent increase from June 2008. In the first half of 2009, 1,800 resale housing units were sold, representing a 19 per cent decrease from the same period in 2008. Average combined residential sale prices in the towns outside Calgary decreased 6.3 per cent year over year in June 2009 to $354,335. From January to June 2009, average residential sale prices in these communities decreased 9 per cent to $346,660 compared to the same period in 2008.
Table 20: Total Resale Housing Sales, Average and Median Sale Prices for Towns (outside Calgary)
% Jan - Jun Jan - Jun % Towns (outside Calgary) Jun 2009 Jun 2008 Change 2009 2008 Change Sales 472 388 21.6% 1,800 2,231 -19.3% Avg. Sale Price $ 354,335 $ 378,151 -6.3% $ 346,660 $ 380,856 -9.0% Median Sale Price $ 329,900 $ 352,400 -6.4% $ 330,000 $ 350,000 -5.7% Source: Calgary Real Estate Board
In the second quarter of 2009, residential sales were down year over year in all of the communities in the Calgary Region, except Airdrie (+8.3 per cent), Chestermere (+34.4 per cent), and Cochrane (+3.9 per cent). Residential sales in Crossfield were unchanged year over year in the second quarter of 2009. Average residential sale prices were down year over year in all of the communities in the Calgary Region in the second quarter of 2009 except Beiseker (+18.7 per cent). “The good news is pricing remains relatively affordable. We are not liable to see significant price gains in 2009, but more likely a gradual and steady improvement in home values.”135
134 See www.creb.com for a list of towns. 135 Calgary Real Estate Board, CREB Stats, Calgary Home Sales Increase for Sixth Consecutive Month, June 2009.
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Table 21: Total Resale Housing Sales and Average Sale Price by Area
Q2 2009 Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Avg. Q2 2008 Avg. Area % change % change Sales (#) Sales (#) Sale Price ($) Sale Price ($) Airdrie 314 290 8.3% 330,650 357,504 -7.5% Banff 0 6 -100.0% n/a 710,763 n/a Beiseker 1 5 -80.0% 245,000 206,400 18.7% Black Diamond 15 20 -25.0% 259,526 309,305 -16.1% Canmore 54 59 -8.5% 550,146 566,674 -2.9% Chestermere 86 64 34.4% 443,382 506,035 -12.4% Cochrane 107 103 3.9% 389,664 432,184 -9.8% Crossfield 16 16 0.0% 342,625 344,015 -0.4% High River 94 95 -1.1% 299,112 323,751 -7.6% Irricana 5 9 -44.4% 246,900 286,266 -13.8% Okotoks 181 195 -7.2% 349,032 394,707 -11.6% Turner Valley 14 21 -33.3% 281,100 288,800 -2.7% Source: Calgary Real Estate Board
INVENTORY OF PROJECTS Alberta Finance and Enterprise estimates that over $5.12 billion in major capital projects are either proposed (P), announced (A), or under construction (UC) in select communities surrounding Calgary.
Table 22: Summary - Inventory of Major Projects in Select Communities (> $5 million)
Total Under Cost Location Proposed Announced Projects Construction ($mill) Airdrie 10 2 1 7 203.2 Banff 7 4 1 2 98.0 Canmore 7 5 0 2 1,632.8 Chestermere 2 1 0 1 54.5 Cochrane 6 4 0 2 203.7 High River 4 3 0 1 35.4 Okotoks 6 4 0 2 85.9 MD of Foothills 2 2 0 0 410.1 MD of Rocky View 15 9 2 4 1,184.3 Total 59 34 4 21 3,907.9
Source: Alberta Finance and Enterprise, Inventory of Alberta Major Projects, May 2009
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Table 23: Inventory of Major Projects in Select Communities (> $5 million)
Cost Area Company Project Status ($mill) AIRDRIE Alberta Transportation Yankee Valley Blvd/Hwy 2 Interchange 43.0 UC Renascence Developments Corp. 'The Edge' apartment complex 30.0 UC City of Airdrie Genesis Place 28.2 UC The Tarjan Group Two apartment buildings 25.5 UC First Capital Realty Redevelopment of Towelane Mall 20.0 UC Alberta Infrastructure New Elementary School (K to grade 6) 14.5 UC Jade Developments Residential/Commercial building 11.8 UC City of Airdrie 'Chinook Winds' Regional Wase Management Facility 11.4 P City of Airdrie New West Side AES Station 10.8 A City of Airdrie Veterans Boulevard Enhancement 8.0 P Sub Total 203.2 BANFF Town of Banff Recreation Centre redevelopment phase 1 and 2 31.0 UC Parks Canada Twinning Highway 1 - Castle Jct. to Banff Border 30.3 UC Parks Canada Icefields interchange 10.0 P Parks Canada Infrastructure Upgrades 9.7 P Town of Banff/ Banff National Park/ Town of CanmoreBanff legacy trail- multi use trail 6.7 A Alberta Seniors and Community Supports Affordable supportive seniors' housing units 5.3 P Parks Canada Two wildlife overpass structures 5.0 P Sub Total 98.0 CANMORE Stone Creek Properties Inc. 'Village at Stone Creek' commercial/residential development 1,500.0 P Town of Canmore Multi-plex facility 45.0 P Canmore Community Housing Corp Palliser' affordable housing project 32.5 UC Alberta Infrastructure Joint English and French School (K to grade 12) 20.3 UC Town of Canmore Wastewater treatment plant upgrades 15.0 P Town of Canmore/ Lamphouse centre for the arts societyLamphouse Centre for the Arts (arts and cultural centre) 10.0 P Axis Development New Canadian Tire/Mark's Work Wearhouse Store 10.0 P Sub Total 1,632.8 CHESTERMERE Town of Chestermere Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Projects 40.0 P Alberta Infrastructure New elementary school (K to grade 6) 14.5 UC Sub Total 54.5 COCHRANE Inter Pipeline Fund Ethane recovery project 80.0 P Springwood Development Commercial development 75.0 H Spray Lake Sawmill Recreation Park Society Phase 3 of sports centre development 12.5 UC Town of Cochrane Water treatment plant upgrades 12.2 UC Town of Cochrane Center ave redevelopment 9.0 P Town of Cochrane Center ave upgrade 9.0 P Alberta Health and Welness Community health centre 6.0 P Sub Total 203.7 HIGH RIVER Town of High River Library expansion+ theatre complex 16.7 P Foothills Foundation Medicine Tree Manor addition 7.2 UC Continuum Health Care Supportive housing complex 6.0 P Town of High River Water plant upgrades to water system 5.5 P Sub Total 35.4 OKOTOKS Town of Okotoks 32 St. bridge 34.0 P Brenda Stafford Foundation Affordable assisted living facility 15.3 P Calvanna Developments Calvanna Village phase 3 12.0 P Developments2 Inc. Willow an Urban Village' Mixed Use Building 10.0 UC Town of Okotoks Water System Improvements 9.0 P Town of Okotoks 32 St. extension to N Railway St. 5.6 UC Sub Total 85.9 MD FOOTHILLS Trans Canada Corp. Saddlebrook Natural Gas Fired Power Plant 400.0 P MD of Foothills SH 540 paving and improvements 10.1 P Sub Total 410.1 MD ROCKY VIEW Ivanhoe Cambridge CrossIron Mills regional shopping centre 434.0 UC United Horsemen of Alberta Calgary Race Track & Racing Entertainment Centre 260.0 UC Enmax Energy 'Crossfield Energy Centre' natural gas fired power plant 150.0 UC Western Irrigation District Storage capacity development and canal rehabilitation 85.0 P MD of Rocky View East Rocky View wastewater transmission line upgrades 47.6 P The Titan Entertainment Group The Titan Project' Entertainment Venue 40.0 P Alberta Transportation Interchange upgrades, Highway 22/ Highway 1 (trans- 32.4 P Town of Bragg Creek Water and wastewater treatment facility 26.0 P MD of Rocky View Bow River Outfall 21.0 P MD of Rocky View Recreation facility Bow North Recreation District- Langdon 20.0 P MD of Rocky View Wastewater pipeline 18.0 A Alberta Transportation Highway 9 grade, base and pave 18.0 P EnCharis Community Housing and Services 'Prince of Peace' dementia and assisted living care 17.3 UC Olds College Canadian Equine Centre of Innovation 10.0 A MD of Rocky View Additional Ice surface, Indus Recreation Centre 5.0 P Sub Total 1,184.3 TOTAL 3,907.9 Source: Alberta Finance and Enterprise, Inventory of Alberta Major Projects, May 2009
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COMMUNITY NEWS Rural communities plan for a different future Calgary Herald, April 27, 2009 For years, acreages have been the norm for much of the development in rural areas around Cochrane. That pattern will change under a new growth strategy for the region. Rocky View has just released a new 50-year growth plans that focuses on denser and more pedestrian-friendly communities while shunning two-acre parcels which require their own septic tanks and wells. Rocky View Reeve Lois Habberfield says the new plan is a more sustainable vision of a future that preserves farmland. The plan, dubbed Rocky View 2060, proposes no country-residential acreages in areas other than existing acreage communities like Bearspaw and Springbank west of Calgary. Calgary company packs bags and moves to Bragg Creek Rocky View Weekly, April 29, 2009 Eagle Engineering has decided to move out of the city of Calgary, and into a more rural setting in Bragg Creek. The company says the move will not affect its business much since a lot of what the company does is in rural areas such as Claresholm, Stoney Nation, and Canmore. Several of the staff are outdoor enthusiasts and say they welcome the change, and while the commute will be lengthy for some, it will be against the main flow of traffic. Learning centre on the way Rocky View Weekly, Tuesday, May 12, 2009 It may still be some time away, but a Community Learning Centre (CLC) will be coming to Airdrie. The concept for the $23 million training centre was approved by the Rocky View School board in early May. The CLC will be built along with Airdrieʼs third high school and will be used to train students who are interested in careers in the trades. It is expected that work on the centre could begin in three to five years. Okotoksʼ dilemma, keep the cap or grow Calgary Herald, May 13, 2009 Okotoksʼ population cap of 30,000, designed to keep growth within the available water supply, is dividing business and families. Residents tend to favour the cap, but business and the mayor say growth needs to be part of the long-term plan. The issue is pressing down on the community as development encroaches. The Municipal District of Foothills has already considered plans for large residential subdivisions, and the mayor argues Okotoks should annex the land before they proceed. Distribution centre delivers 1,400 jobs to Balzac Airdrie Echo, May 13, 2009 A $115 million state-of-the-art distribution centre for Wal-Mart will soon be a major driver of employment in Balzac. The 400,000 sq-ft building will be one of the largest refrigerated buildings in Canada distributing fresh food to Wal-Mart throughout Western Canada. About 800 of the new positions will be tied to construction, while 600 will be permanent positions to operate the facility.
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Airdrie loses $1.3 million in funding overhaul Airdrie Echo, May 13, 2009 Changes to the Municipal Sustainability Initiative (MSI) Program have cut funding to the City of Airdrie from around $4.3 million to $3 million this year. The program was designed to provide stable long term funding for Alberta communities but the recent downturn has forced the province to cutback. However, some of the cutbacks may be offset by new federal funding, and lower construction costs will help the municipality get more for every dollar spent. High Riverʼs police and fire look for more room High River Times, May 19, 2009 The fast pace of growth is still posing problems for the Town of High River as it plays catch-up with its infrastructure. The local detachment of RCMP, for example, has added three new constables. Facilities are not yet overcrowded, but the Town is looking at a new home for the RCMP as the current building nears capacity. Meanwhile, the fire department is facing a similar space crunch in the near future, a combined problem that may lead to the police and fire departments sharing a single new facility. The work goes on at several City sites Airdrie Echo, May 20, 2009 In the midst of a slowing economy, the City of Airdrie is moving ahead with several major capital projects. Phase two of Genesis Place alone is budgeted at $28.2 million. Other projects include a $13 million emergency services station, two fire halls and improvements to the East Lake track. Canmore faces new taxes and cutbacks Canmore Leader, May 20, 2009 A drastic drop in construction this year is forcing the Town of Canmore to revamp its budget and look to a mix of tax increases and hiring freezes to control costs. In 2008, about $220 million worth of construction kept town coffers full. The estimate for 2009 now stands at $40 million. With fewer resources the Town has implemented a hiring freeze and asked staff to assume more responsibilities. The sudden change in circumstance has forced the Town to act swiftly and rescind the budget passed in December. High River appealing for flight centre High River Times, May 22, 2009 When the Calgary International Airport became too busy and expensive for the Calgary Flight Training Centre, it looked to High River to continue its operations. The townʼs proximity to the airport, lower costs and well-maintained infrastructure made it top choice over Springbank, Okotoks and other Calgary area airports. The training centre now saves students approximately $3,000 on the cost of their private pilotʼs license. Local dealership escapes the axe Canmore Leader, May 27, 2009 Over 250 GM dealerships across the country have been told their days are numbered, but Canmoreʼs family- owned Can-Bow Motors Ltd was not on the list. The dealership is now in its 32 year, but for the last five months the owners did not know whether they would make it into 2010. GMʼs painful reductions are part of a huge reduction in costs that has seen plants idled, workers laid off and wages cut. One advantage that may have helped the dealership escape unscathed was its diverse product line up. Unlike many dealerships, Can- Bow Motors sells four lines of vehicles, an all-in-one approach the company sees as critical to its future.
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Baby cries to return to Banff hospital Banff Crag and Canyon, June 2, 2009 A nursing shortage forced Mineral Springs Hospital to cut back its obstetrics department in March 2009, but the arrival of nine new nurses could mean the department reopens its doors by August 10 of this year. The decision to shutdown obstetrics was a controversial one sparking several protest marches. During the closure, expectant mothers had to go to Canmore to give birth. If those facilities were full they would be re- directed to Calgary. Airdrie housing market shrugs off downturn Airdrie Echo, June 10, 2009 Airdriesʼs housing market is down from its high mark in 2008, but remains healthy. After an all-time-high of 529 MLS listings on the market at this time last year, there are now 329 properties for sale. And in May of 2009 there were 98 sales, just one shy of May 2008ʼs 99 sales. Much of the continued activity is for entry- level homes and condos with buyers taking advantage of a softer market and low interest rates. Airdrie attracts business Airdrie Echo, June 11, 2009 Alberta Venture magazine has named Airdrie one of the top 10 best communities for business in Alberta in a recent report. The report surveyed over 30 communities and compared various trends such as rental rates, land costs, taxes, licensing fees, cost of living and post-secondary institutions. The cityʼs close proximity to Calgary, the international airport, low lease rates and diversified labour force also made the area appealing for business owners. Airdrie booms like its 1976 Airdrie Echo, June 18, 2009 Airdrie is still in the throes of a population expansion, on par with the heady days of the 70ʼs. Over the past year, the city grew to 38,091 from 34,116, increasing the local population by 11.65 per cent. The last time the City saw growth on this level was during the 1970ʼs. A new home for MD of Rocky View? Cochrane Times, June 18, 2009 Balzac may soon be the new administrative centre for the MD of Rocky View. Currently based in Calgary, the MDʼs office is facing a shortage of space, and is looking to a new home on a 63.5-hectare site, located at the northwest corner of Highway 566 and Range Road 291 in the East Balzac area. The land has already been purchased for $5.75 million. In addition to an administrative centre, the project may be the future home of an operations works yard and recycling centre, an emergency services centre, Station 72 Fire Hall, a civic park and trails network, and a regional recreation facility.
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CALGARY & AREA EMPLOYER SURVEY For each quarter of 2009, a survey will be conducted of Calgary and area companies. The purpose of the survey is to gather information from employers on their recruitment and retention practices and various other employment issues they are facing. In the first quarter of 2009, large-sized companies (100+ employees) were surveyed, and in the second quarter, medium-sized companies (50 – 99 employees) were surveyed. Small-sized companies (10 – 49 employees) will be surveyed in the third quarter, and micro-sized companies (<10 employees) will be surveyed in the fourth quarter.
Q2 2009 SURVEY RESULTS: MEDIUM-SIZED COMPANIES (50 - 99 EMPLOYEES) In the second quarter of 2009, a survey was conducted of 200 medium-sized Calgary and area companies (50 - 99 employees). It should be noted that results are presented as received, with no statistical analysis. For additional information on survey methodology, see Appendix A.
Q.1. How many people does your company employ in the Calgary region? The 200 companies surveyed employ approximately 13,763 people. Of this total, 74 per cent are full-time employees, 12 per cent are part-time employees, five per cent are contract workers, one per cent are seasonal workers, and one per cent are casual/temporary workers.
Total Number of Industry Employees Companies Mining & Oil & Gas 1,226 19 Construction 1,208 19 Manufacturing 1,412 21 Wholesale & Retail Trade 1,738 22 Transportation & Warehousing 1,445 20 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,426 20 Health Care & Social Assistance 1,356 19 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 1,291 21 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 1,286 18 Other 1,375 21 Total 13,763 200
Note: The ʻOtherʼ industry category represents companies from the remainder of the industry categories: Agriculture, Utilities, Information & Culture, Management of Companies, Administrative & Support Services, Educational Services, Other Services and Public Administration.
Employees Number Per cent
Full-time 10,122 74% Part-time 1,640 12% Contract 703 5% Seasonal 195 1% Other (Casual/temporary) 166 1% Not specified 937 7% Total 13,763
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Q.2. Has your company expanded, relocated, or downsized in the last 12 months? Overall, 19 per cent (39 companies) have expanded, 31 per cent (62 companies) have downsized, and two per cent (4 companies) have relocated in the last 12 months. Forty-eight per cent of the companies have not changed the scope of their operations in the last 12 months.
Of the 39 companies that have expanded in the last 12 months, nine are from the health care & social assistance industry, and eight are from the mining & oil & gas industry. Ten transportation and warehousing companies, and nine companies each in the mining & oil and gas and professional, scientific & technical services industries have downsized over the last 12 months.
Expanded Relocated Downsized Industry No (#) (#) (#) (#) Mining & Oil & Gas 8 1 9 3 Construction 4 0 8 7 Manufacturing 4 0 8 9 Wholesale & Retail Trade 2 1 5 14 Transportation & Warehousing 1 1 10 9 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 5 0 9 6 Health Care & Social Assistance 9 1 1 8 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 1 0 2 18 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 5 0 7 6 Other 0 0 3 18 Total 39 4 62 98
Comments • Weʼve gone from 250 employees to 50 employees. – Construction • We used to have well over 100 agents (this company now has less than 70) – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We have expanded - this time last year we definitely had less employees. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We acquired another company. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
• We have downsized – we laid off 35 people a month ago, and will be letting 10 more go. – Manufacturing
• We laid off 30 full-time employees in Jan/Feb. – Mining & Oil & Gas • We have expanded our business to Edmonton – Professional, Scientific & Technical Services • There was a business expansion when the company merged with another, but a downsize occurred in January/February of 2009 when the economy turned and employees had to be let go. – Transportation & Warehousing
Q.3. Do you anticipate a business expansion, relocation, downsize, or closure in the next 12 months? Overall, 22 per cent (44 companies) anticipate a business expansion, two per cent (4 companies) anticipate a relocation and six per cent (12 companies) anticipate a business downsize in the next 12 months. No closures are expected.
Of the 44 companies that anticipate a business expansion over the next 12 months, seven are from the mining & oil & gas industry. Half of the companies that anticipate a business downsize over the next 12 months are from the wholesale & retail trade and transportation & warehousing industries.
Expansion Relocation Downsize Closure Industry No (#) Unsure (#) (#) (#) (#) (#) Mining & Oil & Gas 7 0 0 0 8 4 Construction 3 1 0 0 13 2 Manufacturing 6 0 2 0 11 2 Wholesale & Retail Trade 3 1 3 0 14 1 Transportation & Warehousing 1 0 3 0 11 5 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 6 1 1 0 11 1 Health Care & Social Assistance 6 0 0 0 5 8 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 3 0 0 0 18 0 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 6 1 1 0 8 2 Other 3 0 2 0 16 0 Total 44 4 12 0 115 25
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Comments • We anticipate another location opening in the next year to year and a half. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• Three new locations are expected to open in the next year. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• An expansion is expected due to a C-train expansion close to this location. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• We will be looking for a bigger office space. – Construction • We are opening an office in London this year and we should be adding up to five more positions here by the end of the year. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• The market is changing... I could see us losing a couple of more people, but that would be it. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We've been growing and I think we'll continue growing. – Mining & Oil & Gas • We are looking at a possible expansion outside of Canada. – Mining & Oil & Gas • An Edmonton branch will be closing at the end of the month. – Wholesale & Retail Trade
Q.4. As a result of the slowdown in the economy, has your company laid off any employees in the past three months? Thirty-eight per cent (75 companies) said their company has laid off employees in the past three months as a result of the slowdown in the economy. Approximately 640 people were reported as being laid off, with 80 per cent specified as full-time layoffs.
Of the 75 companies that have laid off employees in the past three months, 11 are from the construction industry, 11 are from the transportation & warehousing industry, and 11 are from the professional, scientific & technical services industry. None of the accommodation & food services/arts & entertainment companies surveyed have laid off employees in the past three months.
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Industry Yes (#) No (#)
Mining & Oil & Gas 9 10 Construction 11 8 Manufacturing 12 8 Wholesale & Retail Trade 9 12 Transportation & Warehousing 11 9 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 11 9 Health Care & Social Assistance 2 17 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 0 21 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 7 11 Other 3 18 Total 75 123
Comments • We havenʼt laid off, but haven't done any hiring either. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• We have not laid off anyone – we just haven't re-hired when someone leaves. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• Weʼve reduced hours to avoid having to lay off any employees. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• No layoffs - but weʼve hired fewer employees than normal. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• We've been very lucky and have not had to lay off anyone. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We cut everywhere else and finally there was nothing else we could do. We had to let three people go. We would hire them back in a heartbeat if we could. – Transportation & Warehousing
Q.5. Does your company currently have any vacant positions that need to be filled? Overall, 36 per cent (71 companies) currently have vacant positions that need to be filled.
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The number of companies in each of the industry categories that currently have vacant positions that need to be filled range from three in the transportation & warehousing industry to 14 in the health care & social assistance industry.
Industry Yes (#) No (#)
Mining & Oil & Gas 4 15 Construction 5 13 Manufacturing 5 16 Wholesale & Retail Trade 6 15 Transportation & Warehousing 3 16 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 5 15 Health Care & Social Assistance 14 5 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 12 9 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 6 12 Other 11 10 Total 71 126
The companies reporting vacancies currently have approximately 300 vacant positions that need to be filled. Overall, this equates to a vacancy rate of 2.2 per cent. The accommodation & food services/arts & entertainment industry has the highest average vacancy rate at 6.8 per cent. The top positions needed across all industries are: Food Counter Attendants, Kitchen Helpers and Related Occupations (30 positions), Labourers in Food, Beverage and Tobacco Processing (20 positions), Food and Beverage Servers (17 positions), Truck Drivers (15 positions), Secondary School Teachers (13 positions), Community and Social Service Workers (12 positions), Bartenders (12 positions), Outdoor Sport and Recreational Guides (10 positions), Contractors and Supervisors, Carpentry Trade (10 positions), Plasters, Drywall Installers, Finishers and Lathers (10 positions), and Other Trades Helpers and Labourers (10 positions).
Total Vacant Total Industry Vacancy Rate Positions Employees Mining & Oil & Gas 8 1,226 0.7% Construction 35 1,208 2.9% Manufacturing 28 1,412 2.0% Wholesale & Retail Trade 14 1,738 0.8% Transportation & Warehousing 6 1,445 0.4% Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 26 1,426 1.8% Health Care & Social Assistance 51 1,356 3.8% Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 88 1,291 6.8% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 9 1,286 0.7% Other 39 1,375 2.8% Total 304 13,763 2.2%
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Mining & Oil & Gas – Vacant Positions
Vacant NOC Code Occupation Positions 2145 Petroleum Engineers 3 0211 Engineering Managers 1 2232 Mechanical Engineering Technologists and Technicians 1 2233 Industrial Engineering and Manufacturing Technologists and Technicians 1 2253 Drafting Technologists and Technicians 1 2261 Non-Destructive Testers and Inspectors 1 Total 8
Construction – Vacant Positions
Vacant NOC Code Occupation Positions 7284 Plasterers, Drywall Installers and Finishers and Lathers 10 7215 Contractors and Supervisors, Carpentry Trades 10 7611 Construction Trades Helpers and Labourers 7 7281 Bricklayers 4 7421 Heavy Equipment Operators (Except Crane) 2 4163 Business Development Officers and Marketing Researchers and Consultants 1 7219 Contractors and Supervisors, Other Construction Trades 1 Total 35
Manufacturing – Vacant Positions
Vacant NOC Code Occupation Positions 9617 Labourers in Food, Beverage and Tobacco Processing 20 9619 Other Labourers in Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities 5 1411 General Office Clerks 1 6411 Sales Representatives - Wholesale Trade (Non-Technical) 1 7272 Cabinetmakers 1 Total 28
Wholesale & Retail Trades – Vacant Positions
Vacant NOC Code Occupation Positions 6421 Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks 4 7321 Automotive Service Technicians, Truck & Bus Mechanics & Mechanical Repairers 4 6221 Technical Sales Specialists – Wholesale Trade 2 1414 Receptionists and Switchboard Operators 1 7312 Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics 1 7322 Motor Vehicle Body Repairers 1 7443 Automotive Mechanical Installers and Servicers 1 Total 14
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Transportation & Warehousing – Vacant Positions
Vacant NOC Code Occupation Positions 7411 Truck Drivers 5 0713 Transportation Managers 1 Total 6
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services – Vacant Positions
Vacant NOC Code Occupation Positions 7612 Other Trades Helpers and Labourers 10 2133 Electrical and Electronics Engineers 5 6411 Sales Representatives - Wholesale Trade (Non-Technical) 3 2233 Industrial Engineering and Manufacturing Technologists and Technicians 2 7243 Power System Electricians 2 1414 Receptionists and Switchboard Operators 1 2132 Mechanical Engineers 1 2134 Chemical Engineers 1 6221 Technical Sales Specialists – Wholesale Trade 1 Total 26
Health Care & Social Assistance – Vacant Positions
Vacant NOC Code Occupation Positions 4212 Community and Social Service Wokers 11 3141 Audiologists and Speech-Language Pathologists 8 3143 Occupational Therapists 7 3111 Specialist Physicians 5 4214 Early Childhood Educators and Assistants 4 3414 Other Assisting Occupations in Support of Health Services 4 3413 Nurse Aides, Orderlies and Patient Service Associates 3 6472 Elementary and Secondary School Teacher Assistants 2 4153 Family, Marriage and Other Related Counsellors 2 1211 Supervisors, General Office and Administrative Support Clerks 2 3152 Registered Nurses 1 4151 Psychologists 1 4152 Social Workers 1 Total 51
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment – Vacant Positions
Vacant NOC Code Occupation Positions 6641 Food Counter Attendants, Kitchen Helpers and Related Occupations 30 6453 Food and Beverage Servers 17 6452 Bartenders 12 6442 Outdoor Sport and Recreational Guides 10 6661 Light Duty Cleaners 6 0631 Restaurant and Food Service Managers 3 6435 Hotel Front Desk Clerks 2 6241 Chefs 2 0611 Sales, Marketing and Advertising Managers 1 6451 Maîtres d'hôtel and Hosts/Hostesses 1 6242 Cooks 1 6215 Cleaning Supervisors 1 6671 Operators and Attendants in Amusement, Recreation and Sport 2 Total 88
Other – Vacant Positions
Vacant NOC Code Occupation Positions 4141 Secondary School Teachers 13 7411 Truck Drivers 10 1411 General Office Clerks 2 4214 Early Childhood Educators and Assistants 2 0213 Computer and Information Systems Managers 1 1414 Receptionists and Switchboard Operators 1 1431 Accounting and Related Clerks 1 2172 Database Analysts and Data Administrators 1 6472 Elementary and Secondary School Teacher Assistants 1 5111 Librarians 1 4212 Community and Social Service Wokers 1 2282 User Support Technicians 1 4167 Recreation, Sports and Fitness Program Supervisors and Consultants 1 4217 Other Religious Occupations 1 5122 Editors 1 2255 Mapping and Related Technologists and Technicians 1 Total 39
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing – Vacant Positions
Vacant NOC Code Occupation Positions 0122 Banking, Credit and Other Investment Managers 1 1111 Financial Auditors and Accountants 1 1222 Executive Assistant 1 1414 Receptionists and Switchboard Operators 1 1114 Other Financial Officers 1 1112 Financial and Investment Analysts 1 6411 Sales Representatives 1 1234 Insurance Underwriters 1 0121 Insurance, Real Estate and Financial Brokerage Managers 1 Total 9
Comments • We are running pretty lean right now. – Construction • There are certainly openings within the company, but not in Calgary. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We have done no hiring in 2009 at all. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing • We currently have a hiring freeze in place. – Mining & Oil & Gas • It's not really the season for hiring yet, but we will be needing more people in the fall/winter. – Mining & Oil & Gas
• We have a hiring freeze on right now. – Transportation & Warehousing • If someone comes by with a stellar resume we will certainly look at it, but it doesn't mean we will have as much work as they're looking for. – Transportation & Warehousing
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Q.6. Once any current vacant positions are filled, do you anticipate total employment at your location will increase, decrease, or stay the same in the next three months? Overall, 11 per cent (21 companies) anticipate total employment will increase over the next three months, four per cent (8 companies) anticipate it will decrease, and 59 per cent (119 companies) anticipate it will stay about the same. The net increase in employees over the next three months is estimated to be 106 (an increase of 164 employees vs. a decrease of 58 employees).
Of the 21 companies that anticipate employment will increase over the next three months, four are from the accommodation & food services/arts & entertainment industry. Of the eight companies that anticipate employment will decrease over the next three months, two are from the manufacturing industry, two are from the wholesale & retail trade industry, and two are from the ʻotherʼ industry.
Increase Decrease Industry Same (#) Unsure (#) (#) (#) Mining & Oil & Gas 3 0 11 5 Construction 3 0 14 2 Manufacturing 1 2 3 15 Wholesale & Retail Trade 2 2 17 1 Transportation & Warehousing 3 1 12 4 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 2 0 4 14 Health Care & Social Assistance 2 0 11 6 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 4 1 14 2 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 1 0 14 3 Other 0 2 19 0 Total 21 8 119 52
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Q.7. What resources does your company use to find applicants? Overall, the top resources companies use to find applicants are: word of mouth/employee referrals (70%), company website/internal postings (58%), Internet (51%), walk-ins/unsolicited resumes (49%), and newspapers (48%). Of the companies that use the Internet as a resource, Calgary Job Shop was mentioned most often (40 mentions), followed by Monster (19 mentions), the Job Bank (18 mentions), and Workopolis (13 mentions). Of the companies that use newspapers as a resource, the Calgary Herald was mentioned most often (70 mentions), followed by the Calgary Sun (31 mentions), and local newspapers (13 mentions).
Comments • We receive about ten resumes a day. Thereʼs no need to advertise at all. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• We mainly get walk-ins now - in the past weʼve used the Internet to post vacant positions. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• We find a lot of people through networking. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing • We have a few select agencies that we deal with in Calgary that we use for filling some of our more difficult to fill positions, but we also get lots of unsolicited resumes. We have also been quite successful recruiting by word of mouth. We find that our own employees are quite adept at recognizing the particular skill sets we look for in potential staff. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We usually go to the paper as a last resort. We don't get a lot of unsolicited resumes because we often don't use the company name in media if we are advertising for jobs. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We sometimes hold informational sessions at Mount Royal College. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We do a lot of recruiting through Olds College, SAIT, and Mt. Royal. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
• It is a completely different environment this year than it was a year ago. The labour pool is very different. What we are finding is that there are a number of strong resumes out there and that these resumes are coming to us without any recruitment. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We've found that Monster has been rather ineffective as a means to fill highly technical positions. Those people just aren't looking for jobs that way. We have gone to headhunters from time to time. Depending on the position we will search different ways. – Mining & Oil & Gas
• We sometimes use the newspaper, but very rarely. Most new employees come through word of mouth. – Mining & Oil & Gas
• We typically post jobs with the universities of Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatoon. – Mining & Oil & Gas
• Weʼve participated in three job fairs this year. – Mining & Oil & Gas • We've actually had a lot of success with the work experience program through Reeve's College. – Mining & Oil & Gas
• Most of our hires are from staff referrals. – Mining & Oil & Gas • Right now there is no advertising to anyone. There aren't even jobs for union guys. – Transportation & Warehousing
• Recently, we have posted all positions internally only. We'd much rather someone be transferred or retrained than laid off. – Transportation & Warehousing
• We use newspapers only when we are very desperate. – Transportation & Warehousing • Most of our office staff we find using the Internet or a newspaper, but for the delivery guys - they just seem to talk to each other. We don't really need to advertise for them. – Transportation & Warehousing
• It's a lot of word of mouth in this industry. We're known as an excellent company to work for so we get a lot of applicants. We rely on referrals a lot. – Transportation & Warehousing
Q.8a. Has your company had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the last 12 months? Overall, 41 per cent (81 companies) had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the last 12 months.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Of the 81 companies that had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the last 12 months, 14 are from the health care & social assistance industry, and 10 are from the accommodation & food services/arts & entertainment industry.
Industry Yes (#) No (#)
Mining & Oil & Gas 8 11 Construction 7 12 Manufacturing 9 12 Wholesale & Retail Trade 7 15 Transportation & Warehousing 6 14 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 6 14 Health Care & Social Assistance 14 5 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 10 11 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 9 9 Other 5 16 Total 81 119
Q.8b. Has your company had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the last three months? While 41 per cent of the companies had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the last 12 months, only 13 per cent (25 companies) had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the last three months.
Comments • Even during the labour shortage we didnʼt they have a problem finding qualified employees. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• This time last year we were operating at 60 per cent – weʼre now at full capacity (54 employees then, 75 now). – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• Last year was difficult. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment • Thereʼs always a shortage of masons - not necessarily having to do with the economy. – Construction
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
• You couldn't find anyone when the staffing wars were at their peak, but now it's much better. We aren't getting people coming in and demanding $250,000 salaries anymore. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We really had some difficulty finding good, hard working staff in our accounts payable department. We don't have that problem anymore. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We are always looking for speech therapists. – Health Care & Social Assistance • Certain occupations have been more difficult to recruit than others. – Health Care & Social Assistance
• With the layoffs, weʼve cleaned out all the un-qualified people. – Manufacturing • More people are available to work due to the downturn in the economy. – Mining & Oil & Gas • Itʼs not difficult now to find qualified employees, but just over twelve months ago it was a whole different world. – Mining & Oil & Gas
• Overall no, except for Civil Engineer, and Civil Structural Draftsperson/Designer. – Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
• It's really only been difficult for the management positions. – Transportation & Warehousing • We have found many very qualified people in the last 12 months with very little trouble. – Transportation & Warehousing
• Itʼs been better in the last 12 months. – Wholesale & Retail Trade
Q.9. Do you anticipate having more, less, or the same amount of difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the next 12 months? Overall, four per cent (eight companies) anticipate having more difficulty, 39 per cent (77 companies) anticipate having less difficulty, and 48 per cent (97 companies) anticipate having the same amount of difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the next 12 months.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Of the 8 companies that anticipate having more difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the next 12 months, half are from the construction industry. Of the 77 companies that anticipate having less difficulty, 12 are from the manufacturing industry, 12 are from the wholesale & retail trade industry, and 11 are from the professional, scientific & technical services industry.
More Less Same Unsure Industry (#) (#) (#) (#) Mining & Oil & Gas 1 7 9 2 Construction 4 5 9 1 Manufacturing 0 12 7 2 Wholesale & Retail Trade 0 12 9 1 Transportation & Warehousing 0 8 11 1 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 0 11 9 0 Health Care & Social Assistance 1 4 6 8 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 1 7 12 1 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 0 6 12 0 Other 1 5 13 2 Total 8 77 97 18
Comments • This was the first year it was easy to find employees. If the economy turns around it may be difficult again. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• We have more options now because more people are looking for work. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• Weʼve had more applications due to the downturn in the economy. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• It is always hard to find good people. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment • Thereʼs just not enough being trained in this field - the rates of new masons is lower than the rate of retirement. – Construction
• The issues aren't the same as last year. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing • Because of the market, more people are available. – Manufacturing • No one is looking to quit right now. People are hanging on to their jobs because they are scared. – Transportation & Warehousing
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Q.10. Does your company currently employ any temporary foreign workers? Overall, 21 per cent (41 companies) currently employ temporary foreign workers. The companies that employ temporary foreign workers reported employing 203 in total. Approximately 44 per cent of the temporary foreign workers are from the Philippines, 17 per cent are from Mexico, and 13 per cent are from the United Kingdom.
Of the 41 companies that employ temporary foreign workers, 14 are from the accommodation & food services/arts & entertainment industry, and six are from the manufacturing industry.
Industry Yes (#) No (#)
Mining & Oil & Gas 3 16 Construction 4 15 Manufacturing 6 15 Wholesale & Retail Trade 4 18 Transportation & Warehousing 1 19 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1 19 Health Care & Social Assistance 4 15 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 14 7 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 1 17 Other 3 18 Total 41 159
Comments • We tried! The last 21/2 years we have been looking into this. We really wanted to have foreign workers in for last August. The immigration offices in their own country declined the visas. They told us that we could not hire them because they had already previously applied for immigration. No one told us this wasn't allowed. We wasted $3000 and hours and hours of time to try to push this through only to have it be a waste. I am disgusted with the whole process. – Construction
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Q.11. Do you anticipate applying for or hiring any temporary foreign workers in the next 12 months? Overall, six per cent (12 companies) anticipate applying for or hiring temporary foreign workers in the next 12 months. These 12 companies anticipate applying for or hiring an additional 48 temporary foreign workers, mainly from the Philippines and Mexico.
Of the12 companies that anticipate applying for or hiring temporary foreign workers in the next year, seven are from the accommodation & food services/arts & entertainment industry.
Industry Yes (#) No (#) Unsure (#)
Mining & Oil & Gas 0 16 3 Construction 2 17 0 Manufacturing 2 18 1 Wholesale & Retail Trade 0 20 2 Transportation & Warehousing 0 18 2 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 0 20 0 Health Care & Social Assistance 1 9 9 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 7 11 3 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 0 18 0 Other 0 20 1 Total 12 167 21
Comments • Weʼre under contract to take six temporary workers, but have one more still to receive. The contract was signed over two years ago and now weʼre getting the workers, when we donʼt need them. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• We are currently attempting to hire one more worker from the Philippines. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• Yes – for next season. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
• No – we are not happy with ones we have. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment • We will be continuing to work with the ones we have, but I don't think we will be looking for more....the program is too difficult to deal with. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• Weʼve looked into it before, unfortunately the funding that is required to house/provide for foreign workers is unavailable. – Health Care & Social Assistance
• We had looked at it, but decided not to. – Manufacturing • No – itʼs too much trouble. – Wholesale & Retail Trade
Q.12. Have any employees left your company in the past 12 months as a result of voluntary turnover? Overall, 71 per cent (142 companies) reported employees have left their company in the past 12 months as a result of voluntary turnover.
Approximately 1,083 employees have left the companies surveyed in the past 12 months, resulting in an average turnover rate of eight per cent. On average, the accommodation & food services/arts & entertainment and finance, insurance, real estate & leasing industries had the highest turnover rates at 22 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.
Total Total Turnover Industry Yes No Turnover Employees Rate Mining & Oil & Gas 74% 26% 66 1,226 5% Construction 47% 53% 65 1,208 5% Manufacturing 67% 33% 67 1,412 5% Wholesale & Retail Trade 77% 23% 101 1,738 6% Transportation & Warehousing 63% 37% 88 1,445 6% Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 85% 15% 69 1,426 5% Health Care & Social Assistance 84% 16% 91 1,356 7% Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 86% 14% 290 1,291 22% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 78% 22% 174 1,286 14% Other 52% 48% 72 1,375 5% Total 71% 29% 1,083 13,763 8%
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Q.13. Are there any occupations in your company that have a particularly high turnover rate? Overall, 38 per cent (75 companies) said there are some occupations in their companies that have a particularly high turnover rate.
Of the 75 companies that said there are some occupations in their companies that have a particularly high turnover rate, 14 are from the wholesale & retail trade industry and 12 are from the health care & social assistance industry.
Industry Yes (#) No (#) Unsure (#)
Mining & Oil & Gas 6 13 0 Construction 7 10 2 Manufacturing 2 18 1 Wholesale & Retail Trade 14 7 1 Transportation & Warehousing 6 13 1 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 7 13 0 Health Care & Social Assistance 12 7 0 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 9 12 0 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 8 9 1 Other 4 16 1 Total 75 118 7
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Companies reported that the following occupations have high turnover rates.
Industry NOC Code Occupation
Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 6453 Food and Beverage Servers 6641 Food Counter Attendants, Kitchen Helpers and Related Occupations 6661 Light Duty Cleaners 6242 Cooks 6435 Hotel Front Desk Clerks 0632 Accommodation Service Managers Construction 1414 Receptionists and Switchboard Operators 7411 Truck Drivers 7611 Construction Trades Helpers and Labourers 7421 Heavy Equipment Operators (Except Crane) 7219 Contractors and Supervisors, Other Construction Trades, Installers, Repairers and Servicers Health Care & Social Assistance 1453 Customer Service, Information and Related Clerks 3413 Nurse Aides, Orderlies and Patient Service Associates 1121 Specialists in Human Resources 3111 Specialist Physicians 4212 Community and Social Service Wokers 0411 Government Managers - Health and Social Policy Development and Program Administration 3414 Other Assisting Occupations in Support of Health Services 0311 Managers in Health Care 3143 Occupational Therapists 3141 Audiologists and Speech-Language Pathologists Manufacturing 7611 Construction Trades Helpers and Labourers 7214 Contractors and Supervisors, Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades Mining & Oil & Gas 8232 Oil and Gas Well Drillers, Servicers, Testers and Related Workers 2172 Database Analysts and Data Administrators 2261 Non-Destructive Testers and Inspectors 7351 Stationary Engineers and Auxiliary Equipment Operato 7421 Heavy Equipment Operators (Except Crane) 6221 Technical Sales Specialists – Wholesale Trade 2263 Inspectors in Public and Environmental Health and Occupational Health and Safety Other 4212 Community and Social Service Wokers 7321 Automotive Service Technicians, Truck and Bus Mechanics and Mechanical Repairers 6472 Elementary and Secondary School Teacher Assistants Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1414 Receptionists and Switchboard Operators 1221 Administrative Officers 4211 Paralegal and Related Occupations 2134 Chemical Engineers 1411 General Office Clerks 6411 Sales Representatives - Wholesale Trade (Non-Technical) 7612 Other Trades Helpers and Labourers 2132 Mechanical Engineers 2253 Drafting Technologists and Technicians 2254 Land Survey Technologists and Technicians Transportation & Warehousing 1453 Customer Service, Information and Related Clerks 7411 Truck Drivers 1463 Couriers, Messengers and Door-to-Door Distributors 7351 Stationary Engineers and Auxiliary Equipment Operato 1122 Professional Occupations in Business Services to Management Wholesale & Retail Trade 6421 Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks 7452 Material Handlers 1431 Accounting and Related Clerks 9619 Other Labourers in Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 1414 Receptionists and Switchboard Operators 6232 Real Estate Agents and Salespersons 1431 Accounting and Related Clerks 7414 Delivery and Courier Service Drivers 6411 Sales Representatives - Wholesale Trade (Non-Technical) 0112 Human Resources Managers
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Comments • Usually the kitchen staff, but not right now. People are holding onto the jobs they have, at least for a little while longer. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• Housekeeping isn't as high of a turnover now with foreign workers filling the positions. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• Nothing unusual for this industry. All positions tend to have a somewhat high turnover. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• We went through five people in accounts payable in less than two months last year. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• Mine! The job of HR Specialist can be very stressful. We've had people leave, people have been let go.... I have kids so I can't just stay late or work weekends. The last person who held down this job for any length of time had to put in 60 hours a week. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
Q.14. Do you anticipate employee turnover will be higher, lower, or about the same in the next 12 months? Overall, eight per cent (15 companies) anticipate employee turnover will be higher in the next 12 months, 28 per cent (56 companies) anticipate it will be lower, and 60 per cent (122 companies) anticipate employee turnover will be about the same in the next 12 months.
Of the 15 companies that anticipate employee turnover will be higher in the next year, six are from the health care & social assistance industry. Of the 56 companies that anticipate employee turnover will be lower in the next 12 months, 10 are from the wholesale & retail trade industry and 10 are from the accommodation & food services/arts & entertainment industry.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Higher Lower Same Unsure Industry (#) (#) (#) (#) Mining & Oil & Gas 3 4 12 0 Construction 1 4 13 1 Manufacturing 0 8 13 0 Wholesale & Retail Trade 0 10 12 0 Transportation & Warehousing 1 3 14 2 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1 6 13 0 Health Care & Social Assistance 6 3 9 1 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 1 10 10 0 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 1 4 10 3 Other 1 4 16 0 Total 15 56 122 7
Comments • Lower – I think people will try harder to hold on to what they have and maybe appreciate their jobs more. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• Lower - foreign workers are more dependable. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
Q.15. What strategies is your company currently using to retain employees? Overall, the top strategies companies are using to retain employees are: positive work environment (92%), excellent management/supervision (87%), competitive salary (82%), excellent communication (79%), competitive benefits (78%), and learning/growth opportunities (78%). Flexible work measures included: flexible hours/shifts, working from home, lots of time off, reduced work week, and flexible start/finish times. Perks included: discounts on products/services and food/accommodation, paid parking, transit passes, gym membership, movie passes and coupons.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Comments • We focus on having a tight management team. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• Schedules are made to try and accommodate employees as much as possible. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• We have implemented a new training program that allows employees to train at home on their computers. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• People like it here because we don't follow rules to a tee. We are flexible, and we deal with people on a case by case basis. Some positions allow people to work from home. Some people don't always work on Fridays or Mondays. We have people that work 9-5, but we're more interested in if the job gets done and not where or how long it takes you. – Construction
• We participate in the Hewitt survey every year and use the results to continually improve our retention. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We were actually named one of Calgary's best places to work. One of everyoneʼs favorite perks is the Christmas party, which takes place at the Banff Springs Hotel every year. The company picks up the check for you and your spouse to stay at the hotel, a celebratory dinner, and lunch the next day. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• Our benefits to staff have been cut and we have eliminated bonuses because of the downturn in business and the economy. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We have recently tried focusing our social events to target specifically the most popular age group in our work force to increase attendance. Also we do a complete analysis of current compensation standards in the industry every year to be sure we are competitive. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• Management here gets employee feedback not just once, but twice a year. The reviews are very helpful and it's good for staff to know that management really cares about what they think. We have an excellent team who is very driven and are excellent to work with. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We are working to build up our rewards and recognition programs to improve retention. We have a very family friendly environment. – Health Care & Social Assistance
• I would say that the work environment here is very conducive to having happy employees. We have excellent salary structures and benefits and everything else you would expect. Also, a lot of the people employed here work in specialized areas. There are not too many other companies they can work for. – Mining & Oil & Gas
• I think we have success because we really deal with people on a personal level. It's a working family here; there isn't a lot of drama. People can voice their opinion and it's actually heard. We have a lot of people who have surpassed the 20-year mark. – Transportation & Warehousing
• Having so many layoffs has had a huge impact on the people that are left, but the managers are doing what they can to make things less gloomy. After the first round of announcements were made, they brought in a company to help staff being laid off with their resumes and provided paid training days for job seeking strategies. Also, they had another paid seminar day when the bank came and talked to people about their severance packages, what their options were, and what they could do with them. Finally, they also provided trucks to move people's toolboxes, which are huge, to their
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
homes for them. Although these aren't happy times, people know that management is doing what they can to look after people. – Transportation & Warehousing
• There's no doubt this is a pretty good place to work, but I don't think that's why things are as they are. The market conditions are why people stay at their jobs. You see the layoffs and you don't think about working somewhere else. That's why people aren't quitting and are putting up with the transfers. – Transportation & Warehousing
• It's a real family atmosphere here. Management has an open door policy. If someone has a problem, they take it up with that person, and management is always willing to listen and help. We have a lot of people that have been here a long time - I've been here 21 years. – Transportation & Warehousing
• I think that our seasonal staff come back to work for us every year because we provide excellent service to our clients, our vehicles are impeccably maintained and we upgrade our entire fleet every two years. We pay well; we pay an hourly wage plus gratuities to drivers so they never feel that they've been shorted. – Transportation & Warehousing
Q.16. Overall, do you anticipate your company will be focusing more, less, or the same on employee retention in the next 12 months? Overall, 26 per cent (51 companies) anticipate their companies will be focusing more on employee retention in the next 12 months, five per cent (nine companies) will be focusing less, and 65 per cent (132 companies) will be focusing about the same on employee retention in the next year.
Of the 51 companies that will be focusing more on employee retention in the next 12 months, 12 are from the health care & social assistance industry, and nine are from the mining & oil & gas industry.
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
More Less Same Unsure Industry (#) (#) (#) (#) Mining & Oil & Gas 9 0 10 0 Construction 2 1 16 0 Manufacturing 3 1 16 1 Wholesale & Retail Trade 6 1 15 0 Transportation & Warehousing 4 2 12 2 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 2 1 17 0 Health Care & Social Assistance 12 0 7 0 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 6 0 14 1 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 6 1 8 3 Other 1 2 17 1 Total 51 9 132 8
Comments • We are looking at implementing a “week of non-stop crew appreciation” program, as well as citywide staff appreciation activities. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• We will be adding more staff incentives than are currently in place. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• We have focused on retention very strongly in the past 12 months and will continue the process. – Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment
• We are keeping the good people that have already been trained, and moving up in the company the JR. associates to encourage them to stay and not take their training elsewhere. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We will be focusing less – we canʼt afford it. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing • We always focus on employee retention, to keep our staff happy and to continue building a sense of community and support between workers. – Health Care & Social Assistance
• It will be important for us to focus on employee retention during these times of uncertainty and change. – Health Care & Social Assistance
• With the economic downturn – we have fewer resources for staff retention. - Manufacturing • We will be implementing more on cross training to retain staff. – Mining & Oil & Gas • We will be communicating more with employees – making sure everyone is happy. – Mining & Oil & Gas
• We are currently in the process if getting certified for ISO9000 so everyone is getting extra training. – Mining & Oil & Gas
• More training will be provided. We have also added a third level to employee recognition. – Transportation & Warehousing
• Less - we've cut everything that isn't absolutely essential. – Transportation & Warehousing
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Supplemental Question How do you anticipate the current economic slowdown will impact your spending on employee training/development in 2009, compared to 2008? Overall, eight per cent (16 companies) anticipate spending on employee training/development will increase in 2009, compared to 2008, 25 per cent (49 companies) anticipate spending will decrease, and 59 per cent (119 companies) anticipate no change in spending.
Seven companies in the mining & oil & gas industry anticipate spending on employee training/development will either moderately or significantly decrease in 2009, compared to 2008.
Significant Moderate No Moderate Significant Unsure Industry increase increase change decrease decrease (#) (#) (#) (#) (#) (#) Mining & Oil & Gas 1 0 10 4 3 1 Construction 1 2 12 1 2 1 Manufacturing 1 1 13 5 0 1 Wholesale & Retail Trade 0 1 15 3 3 0 Transportation & Warehousing 2 1 10 1 3 3 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 0 1 13 3 3 0 Health Care & Social Assistance 0 1 7 3 1 7 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 1 2 12 4 1 1 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 0 0 14 2 1 1 Other 0 1 13 3 3 1 Total 6 10 119 29 20 16
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Calgary & Area Labour Market Report – Second Quarter 2009
Comments • We are taking the opportunity to train the people we have. We have had to lay people off. We tried cutting hours and have people work shorter weeks. The staff we do have left we send for training so they stay busy. It's a win, win situation. There's a lot of safety training and skill enhancement. – Construction
• We are required for most of the work we do to have staff with current training, so I don't think our spending on staff will change. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• We are spending less money because we have less employees, but we are spending the same per employee. – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing
• Training is on hold for the year. We will reassess in 2010 based on the economic situation. – Mining & Oil & Gas
• Funding will significantly decrease in regards to training new employees because we are planning on focusing more on retaining long-term staff. – Transportation & Warehousing
• In our industry, when business is slow, training increases. We're going to spend a lot of money on all the employees who just got transferred, but money is being spent all around. Because the company is so big, we do a lot of our training in house. Also, Transport Canada requires everyone to have certain kinds of training and for it to be kept up. When things are slow, management would rather have people doing training than sitting around. We've had a lot of downtime lately, so there's been a lot of training. – Transportation & Warehousing
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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS This section compares results of the Q2 2008 survey (50 - 99 employees) with results of the Q2 2009 survey (50 - 99 employees). In the second quarter of 2008, 206 companies with 50 - 99 employees were surveyed, employing approximately 13,894 people in the Calgary region. In the second quarter of 2009, 200 companies with 50 - 99 employees were surveyed, employing approximately 13,763 people in the Calgary region.
Has your company expanded, relocated, or downsized in the last 12 months? In 2008, more companies reported they had expanded in the year prior to their survey (23 per cent) than in 2009 (19 per cent). Almost eight times as many companies said they had downsized in the 12 months prior to their survey in 2009 (31 per cent) than in 2008 (4 per cent).
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2008 Surveyed Q2 2009
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Do you anticipate a business expansion, relocation, downsize, or closure in the next 12 months? In 2008, 18 per cent of the companies surveyed anticipated a business expansion in the year following their survey, compared to 22 per cent in 2009. One per cent of companies in 2008 anticipated a business downsize in the year following their survey, compared to six per cent in 2009. No closures were anticipated in either survey.
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2008 Surveyed Q2 2009
Does your company currently have any vacant positions that need to be filled? Significantly more companies in 2008 had vacant positions that needed to be filled (59 per cent) than in 2009 (36 per cent).
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2008 Surveyed Q2 2009
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In 2008, the companies reporting vacancies had 658 vacant positions that needed to be filled with an overall average vacancy rate of 4.7 per cent. In 2009, the companies reporting vacancies had 304 vacant positions that needed to be filled with an overall vacancy rate of 2.2 per cent. On average, the construction industry had the highest vacancy rate in 2008 (9.8 per cent), while the accommodation & food services/arts & entertainment industry had the highest vacancy rate in 2009 (6.8 per cent).
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2008
Total Vacant Total Vacancy Industry Positions Employees Rate Mining & Oil & Gas 47 1,403 3.3% Construction 148 1,514 9.8% Manufacturing 94 1,376 6.8% Wholesale & Retail Trade 73 1,429 5.1% Transportation & Warehousing 51 1,124 4.5% Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 50 1,543 3.2% Health Care & Social Assistance 88 1,462 6.0% Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 50 1,355 3.7% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 23 1,351 1.7% Other 34 1,337 2.5% Total 658 13,894 4.7%
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2009
Total Vacant Total Vacancy Industry Positions Employees Rate Mining & Oil & Gas 8 1,226 0.7% Construction 35 1,208 2.9% Manufacturing 28 1,412 2.0% Wholesale & Retail Trade 14 1,738 0.8% Transportation & Warehousing 6 1,445 0.4% Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 26 1,426 1.8% Health Care & Social Assistance 51 1,356 3.8% Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 88 1,291 6.8% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 9 1,286 0.7% Other 39 1,375 2.8% Total 304 13,763 2.2%
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What resources does your company use to find applicants? The following resources made the top five list in both 2008 and 2009: word of mouth/employee referrals, company website/internal postings, Internet, newspapers, and walk-ins/unsolicited resumes. The percentage of companies that said they find applicants through walk-ins/unsolicited resumes doubled from 24 per cent in 2008 to 49 per cent in 2009.
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2008
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2009
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Has your company had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the last 12 months? Overall, 42 percent of the companies in 2008 and 41 per cent of the companies in 2009 had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the 12 months prior to their survey.
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2008 Surveyed Q2 2009
Do you anticipate having more, less, or the same amount of difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the next 12 months? In 2008, three per cent of the companies surveyed anticipated they would have more difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the year following their survey, compared to four per cent in 2009. More than twice as many companies surveyed in 2009 anticipated they would have less difficulty recruiting qualified employees (39 per cent) than in 2008 (15 per cent).
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2008 Surveyed Q2 2009
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Does your company currently employ any temporary foreign workers? Twice as many companies in 2009 (21 per cent) reported they employed temporary foreign workers than in 2008 (10 per cent).
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2008 Surveyed Q2 2009
Do you anticipate applying for or hiring any temporary foreign workers in the next 12 months? Five per cent of the companies surveyed in 2008 anticipated applying for or hiring temporary foreign workers in the year following their survey, compared to six per cent in 2009.
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2008 Surveyed Q2 2009
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Have any employees left your company in the past 12 months as a result of voluntary turnover? Ninety-nine per cent of the companies surveyed in 2008 reported that employees had left their companies in the year prior to their survey, compared to 71 per cent in 2009. Total turnover fell significantly from 4,165 employees in 2008 to 1.083 employees in 2009 with the overall average turnover rate dropping from 30 per cent in 2008, to eight per cent in 2009. In 2008, the construction and wholesale & retail trade industries had the highest average turnover rate at 49 per cent and 48 per cent, respectively. In 2009, the accommodation & food services industry had the highest turnover rate at 22 per cent.
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2008
Total Total Turnover Industry Yes No Turnover Employees Rate Mining & Oil & Gas 100% 0% 322 1,403 23% Construction 100% 0% 737 1,514 49% Manufacturing 100% 0% 543 1,376 39% Wholesale & Retail Trade 100% 0% 690 1,429 48% Transportation & Warehousing 100% 0% 328 1,124 29% Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 100% 0% 247 1,543 16% Health Care & Social Assistance 100% 0% 342 1,462 23% Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 100% 0% 500 1,355 37% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 100% 0% 201 1,351 15% Other 95% 5% 255 1,337 19% Total 99% 1% 4,165 13,894 30%
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2009
Total Total Turnover Industry Yes No Turnover Employees Rate Mining & Oil & Gas 74% 26% 66 1,226 5% Construction 47% 53% 65 1,208 5% Manufacturing 67% 33% 67 1,412 5% Wholesale & Retail Trade 77% 23% 101 1,738 6% Transportation & Warehousing 63% 37% 88 1,445 6% Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 85% 15% 69 1,426 5% Health Care & Social Assistance 84% 16% 91 1,356 7% Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 86% 14% 290 1,291 22% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 78% 22% 174 1,286 14% Other 52% 48% 72 1,375 5% Total 71% 29% 1,083 13,763 8%
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Do you anticipate employee turnover will be higher, lower, or about the same in the next 12 months? Two per cent of the companies surveyed in 2008 anticipated employee turnover would be higher in the year following their survey compared to 8 per cent in 2009. Almost three times as many companies surveyed in 2009 anticipated employee turnover would be lower in the next year (28 per cent) than in 2008 (10 per cent).
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2008 Surveyed Q2 2009
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What strategies is your company currently using to retain employees? The following strategies made the top three list in both 2008 and 2009: competitive salary, and excellent management/supervision. A competitive benefits package was replaced by positive work environment in 2009. A positive work environment moved to the top of the list in 2009, from fourth place in 2009. A competitive salary moved to third place overall in 2009 from first place in 2008. Overall, retention appeared to be more of a priority for companies in 2009, compared to 2008.
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2008
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2009
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Overall, do you anticipate your company will be focusing more, less, or the same on employee retention in the next 12 months? Almost three times as many companies in 2009 (26 per cent) anticipated they would be focusing more on employee retention in the year following their survey than in 2008 (nine per cent). Five per cent of the companies surveyed in 2009 anticipated they would be focusing less on employee retention in the 12 months following their survey, compared to no companies in 2008.
Companies with 50 - 99 employees Companies with 50 - 99 employees Surveyed Q2 2008 Surveyed Q2 2009
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LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION REVIEW This section captures information related to other labour market activities undertaken by the consultant during the reporting period.
LABOUR MARKET NEWS HIGHLIGHTS The Calgary & Area Labour Market News, published monthly, provides current labour market information and analysis geared toward job seekers. Below are highlights of the April, May, and June 2009 issues. The full articles are available on the Alberta Employment and Immigration website at http://www.employment.gov.ab.ca/cps/rde/xchg/hre/hs.xsl/2396.html
VOLUME 11. ISSUE 4. APRIL 2009 Working with your hands: Becoming an auto mechanic Automotive mechanics perform preventive maintenance, diagnose faulty operations and repair automotive vehicles and light trucks. They can work for automotive repair shops, specialty repair shops, service facilities, car and truck dealerships and large organizations that own fleets of vehicles. And even in the shifting economy, these careers are in demand as vehicles continue to need regular maintenance and repairs. In Alberta, an auto mechanic must be either a certified journeyperson or hold a recognized trade certificate. Auto body technician to display skills Auto body mechanic Deven DeBoer has been training for the upcoming World Skills competition. Auto body technicians repair, replace and refinish damaged motor vehicle structures and body parts, and interior and exterior finishes. DeBoer says itʼs a trade that is always in demand in Calgary. Auto body technicians can be in one of four groups: preppers, repairers, refinishers and technicians. Education can vary depending on which area an auto body technician specializes in. Working In … automotive repair and maintenance There are thousands of vehicles on the road every day, creating a constant demand for employees in automotive repair and maintenance. There are various occupations within this industry, such as auto detailers, heavy equipment technicians, motorcycle mechanics and recreation vehicle technicians. The Classifieds sections of local newspapers and online job sites are a great resource for jobs in this field. Staying safe in the workplace: know your rights and responsibilities While some workplaces may be more dangerous than others, all employees, at some point in time or another, are in danger of being injured in the workplace. Employees should be aware that overall safety is not only the responsibility of the employer, but of the employee as well. This article includes 10 examples of questions employees can ask during a job interview to ensure they will be safe while on the job.
VOLUME 11. ISSUE 5. MAY 2009 Careers that cook: jobs in the kitchen There are various occupations within kitchens, such as dishwasher, prep cook and cooks. These entry-level jobs are in demand right now, as food places tend to have high turnover. There is no education required for these roles, but SAIT offers a cooking apprenticeship program. Although these jobs tend to be seen as temporary jobs, there is a great deal of career movement within this industry and these lower level jobs can turn into management positions or create opportunities for entrepreneurship.
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Calgary cook in the heat of competition Although cook Jordan Clay will not be competing in the upcoming World Skills Competition, he came very close. The graduate of SAITʼs cooking apprenticeship program came in second in both the provincial and national competitions, proving that he has high skills in this trade. Clay sees a long career ahead of himself in this growing industry. Working In … kitchens Even as other industries cut back, kitchens are still hiring. Kitchen staff are needed for summer camps, hospitals, schools, remote work camps, bars and hotels. The local classifieds sections are a good place to start. Other resources for job seekers include the City of Calgary website, the Alberta Camping Association, Alberta Health Services and the Yellow Pages. Networking: An essential part of the job search According to surveys done for the Calgary and Area Labour Market Report, employers consistently use word of mouth to find new workers. But for many job seekers, networking isnʼt easy. Job seekers should start by making a plan. Create a list of questions you need answered about a job, and then make a list of people to talk to. Internet-based discussion boards and informational interviews are also excellent ways to get information on an industry or occupation.
VOLUME 11. ISSUE 6. JUNE 2009 A colourful career: Becoming a painter Painters and decorators (NOC 7294) apply paint, wall coverings and other finishes to the interior and exterior surfaces of buildings and other structures. They work indoors and outdoors for contractors involved in new construction, repair, alteration or remodeling work. The summer months mean more demand for entry-level painters. These positions generally require no experience and training is provided on the job. Painters can go on to work year-round for professional painting companies or open their own painting company. Painter and decorator one of first to compete World Skills competitor Tiffany Vandermey got started in painting and decorating four years ago when she worked for a relativeʼs company. She entered the apprenticeship program in 2006 and graduated this year. Painters and decorators can open their own painting company or go on to become interior designers. Working In … construction of buildings There are still construction and renovation jobs in Calgary. Job seekers in this industry can use effective job search methods such as calling construction companies or walking up to job sites, checking out the unions or using networking or word-of-mouth. Negotiating the best offer: When a raise isnʼt an option In this uncertain economic climate, employees may not be able to get a raise, but they could ask for other perks or benefits, or simply more flexible work arrangements.
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EMPLOYER LABOUR MARKET NEWS HIGHLIGHTS The Calgary & Area Employer Labour Market News, published bi-monthly, is geared toward employers, business and industry. Below are highlights of the May issue. The full articles are available on the Alberta Employment and Immigration website at http://www.employment.gov.ab.ca/cps/rde/xchg/hre/hs.xsl/2397.html
VOLUME 4. ISSUE 3. MAY 2009 Adjusting to the economy: donʼt lay off yet Companies that were previously struggling to find workers to meet their labour needs may now be faced with a different problem—a decrease in revenues that means slashing costs and in some cases, laying off employees. But layoffs can have serious consequences and often donʼt result in cost reduction. There are several other ways employers can reduce costs that donʼt include laying off employees. Some examples are cutting perks, focusing on efficiency, reducing hours and reducing pay. Watching the rigs: What they mean for you All companies should keep an eye out for rig counts. These numbers have a far-reaching impact on all businesses and all industries, not just here in Calgary, but across the country. The number of rigs operating in Alberta is the lowest itʼs been since 1992, and half the amount it was in 2005 and 2006. This is due to many factors, such as low oil and natural gas prices and companies experiencing difficulties in attaining additional funding. Big Ideas from mall Business: E=MC2, Making dreams a reality While other companies face the decision of whether or not to lay off staff, Elaine McPherson, owner of E=MC2 has been hiring staff. After graduating from the self-employment program, McPherson threw herself into the Canmore community, attending various events and volunteering. This networking has helped increase her business, and McPherson is looking for further ways to help her clients who have been financially affected by the economic downturn.
JOB AD ANALYSIS The Calgary Sun Classifieds were analyzed in the second quarter 2009.
CALGARY SUN CLASSIFIEDS The number of job ads in the Calgary Sun Classifieds136 fell significantly in May 2009 to approximately 650, from 2,400 in August 2008 (the last time the Calgary Sun Classifieds were analyzed). Trades, transport and equipment operator occupations, the largest category in August 2008 with 1,326 ads, declined to 263 in May 2009. Sales and service occupations, the second largest category in August 2008 with 601 ads, decreased to 246 in May 2009. The number of business, finance, and administration occupations also fell significantly in May 2009 to 36, from 159 in August 2008, while the number of natural and applied sciences occupations dropped from 92 in August 2008 to 25 in May 2009.
136 These statistics reflect the total ads in the Calgary Sun Classifieds four times per month (counted every Friday). Some job postings may not have been included in the analysis due to limited information on the job.
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Figure 17: Calgary Sun Classifieds: Number of Employment Ads by Occupation
When analyzed by industry, the construction industry had the most job ads in May 2009 (143 ads), followed by the accommodation and food services industry (106 ads), other services industry (98 ads), retail trade industry (58 ads), administrative and support, waste management and remediation industry (55 ads), and transportation & warehousing industry (53 ads) . All other industry categories had fewer than 20 job ads. “The Calgary Sun Classifieds section is a great resource for jobs in construction. In fact, in May there were more jobs posted in construction than any other industry. Most of the jobs advertised are for entry-level positions such a general labourers, framers and painters.”137 In the United States, the Conference Boardʼs monthly Help-Wanted Online Data Series™ measures the number of online jobs on more than 1,200 Internet job boards. In June 2009, the number of online job ads fell by 66,700 month over month. Since January 2009, online job ads in the U.S. have declined by 71,000, a relatively modest drop compared to the 1.2 million decline in online advertised vacancies recorded from August 2008 to January 2009. “We are not out of the woods yet, but job demand has definitely stabilized since January. Although there is some bounce in the monthly numbers, the number of online advertised vacancies had held steady in the last three months (up a modest 35,000).”138
137 Labour Market News, Calgary and Area, Volume 11, Issue 6, June 2009, p.8. 138 The Conference Board, Help-Wanted OnLine Data Series, The Conference Board Reports Online Job Demand Down 66,700 in June, June 29, 2009.
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APPENDIX A
SURVEY METHODOLOGY The Q2 2009 Calgary and Area Employer Survey is based on responses to a telephone questionnaire conducted between May 1, 2009 and June 20, 2009. The survey sampled 200 Calgary and area medium- sized companies (50 - 99 employees). Following are the number of respondents from each industry sector included in the sample:
Number of Industry Respondents Mining & Oil & Gas 19 Construction 19 Manufacturing 21 Wholesale & Retail Trade 22 Transportation & Warehousing 20 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 20 Health Care & Social Assistance 19 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 21 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 18 Other 21 Total 200
The ʻOtherʼ industry category includes a variety of companies from the remainder of the industry categories: Agriculture, Utilities, Information & Culture, Management of Companies, Administrative & Support Services, Educational Services, Other Services and Public Administration. It should be noted that the method of sample selection provides a good cross-section of opinion. Nevertheless, given the size of the sample, the statistical reliability of the survey is limited, particularly when the data is reported by industry. The value of this survey, however, goes beyond the data captured by the questionnaire. The telephone interview allows companies to expand on their responses, which provides invaluable information and comments that cannot be measured quantitatively.
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