Figure 1Plot of Residual, Actual and Fitted Series of the Estimated Model
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Draft Understanding Passenger Demand for the Indian Railways: Issues and Perceptions in a Socio- Demographic Framework A Report for the Indian Railways August 2012 Study Team Project Leader Dr. Shashanka Bhide Principal Investigator Dr. Saurabh Bandyopadhyay Research Analyst Mr. Palash Baruah 2 Contents Summary............................................................................................................................................................... 13 1. General Overview and the Context of the Present Study .................................................................................. 27 2. Survey of Potential Rail User Households........................................................................................................ 32 3. Passenger Survey: Objectives, Methodology and Sample Selection ................................................................ 54 4. Non-Suburban Services: Station Based /On-Board Survey ............................................................................ 102 5. Further Analysis of Factors affecting Demand for Rail Passenger Services .................................................. 141 6. Concluding Observations................................................................................................................................ 168 Annex 1: Validation Plan for Data-Entry: Suburban/Non-Suburban Questionnaire ......................................... 171 Annex 2: Distribution of the Proportion of the Listing Household to the Estimated Actual Household …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………173 Annex 3: Comparable Indicators Derived From the Survey Results for Households, Suburban Passengers and Non-Suburban Passengers .................................................................................................................................. 174 References .......................................................................................................................................................... 177 3 List of Tables Table 1:Average Yearly Expenditure (Rs/ Household) of The MPCE and MPCI Households ............................................... 14 Table 2: A Comparison of the Household Data of NCAER with All-India Results from NSSO ............................................. 15 Table 1.1: Reserved and Non-Reserved Passengers Across Zones of the IR in FY 2010–11 .................................................. 28 Table 2.1: Average Yearly Expenditure of the MPCE and MPCI Households ........................................................................ 33 Table 2.2: Expenditure on Major Heads by MPCE Quintiles .................................................................................................. 33 Table 2.3: A Comparison of The Household Data of NCAER with All-India Results From NSSO ........................................ 34 Table 2.4: Distribution of Average Yearly Household Expenditure (Rs) on Various Modes of Transportation By MPCE Quintiles .................................................................................................................................................................................. 34 Table 2.5: Definition of the Sector of Engagement of the Respondent .................................................................................... 36 Table 2.6: Distribution Of The Ownership Of Assets By Quintiles Of Household Expenditure ............................................. 37 Table 2.7: Distribution Of Respondents By Expenditure Class And Mode Of Transport (%) ................................................. 38 Table 3.1 An International Comparison of Some of the Parameters Reflecting Efficient Utilisation and Connectivity of the Railways System (Data Pertains to 2008) ................................................................................................................................ 57 Table 3.2: Distribution (%) of Monthly Income and Expenditure (Per Month) ....................................................................... 59 Table 3.3: Distribution (%) of Respondent by Expenditure and Activity Status (Rs) .............................................................. 63 Table 3.4: Distribution (%) of Respondents by Expenditure and Educational Status .............................................................. 66 Table 3.5: Distributions of Respondent by Type of Railway Concessions by Expenditure Categories and Total ................... 75 Table 3.6: Distribution of Respondent by The Purchase of Train Tickets and other Aspects .................................................. 77 Table 3.7: Distribution of Respondent by Mode of Travel when Train Services are affected by Expenditure Status.............. 78 Table 3.8: Distribution (%) of the Respondents by Reason for Train Travel and Activity Status............................................ 84 Table 3.9: Distribution (%) of Respondent by Reasons for Train Travel and Educational Status ........................................... 85 Table 3.10: Distribution (%) of Respondent by Reasons for Train Travel and Expenditure Status ......................................... 85 Table 4.1: Railway Zones, Headquarters and Divisions ........................................................................................................ 102 Table 4.2: Percentage Distribution of the Top 20 Stations of the Indian Railways on the Basis of Number of Passengers Dealt and Total Earnings ....................................................................................................................................................... 103 Table 4.3: Station-Based Survey Covering Non-Suburban Train Services: A Sample of 15 Stations .................................. 104 Table 4.4: List of Trains for the On-Board Survey Covering at least Three Zones ............................................................... 104 Table 4.5: Income-Expenditure Trajectory and Profile of The Non-Suburban Passengers .................................................... 107 Table 4.6: Distribution of Income of the Non-Suburban Passengers by Age-Groups ............................................................ 109 Table 4.7: Distribution of Expenditure of the Non-Suburban Passengers by Age-Groups .................................................... 109 Table 4.8: Income of the Non-Suburban Passengers by Educational Status .......................................................................... 111 Table 4.9: Expenditure of the Non-Suburban Passengers by Educational Status ................................................................... 111 Table 4.10: Distribution of Income of the Non-Suburban Passengers by Activity Status ...................................................... 112 Table 4.11: Expenditure of the Non-Suburban Passengers by Activity Status ....................................................................... 112 Table 4.12: Distribution of the Passengers by Percentage of Transportation Expenditure among Expenditure Status .......... 113 Table 4.13: Distribution of Types of Concessions availed by Passengers by Activity Status ................................................ 122 Table 4.14: Distribution of Passengers by Class of Travel and Age-Group ........................................................................... 123 Table 4.15: Distribution of Passengers by Class of Travel and Activity Status ..................................................................... 123 4 Table 4.16: Distribution of Passengers by Class of Travel and Expenditure Status ............................................................... 124 Table 4.17: Non-Usage of Internet by Age-Group (% of Ranges) ......................................................................................... 125 Table 4.18: Distribution (%) of Passengers by Reasons for Travelling by Train and Activity Status .................................... 126 Table 4.19: Distribution (%) of Passengers by Reasons for Travelling by Train and Expenditure Status ............................. 127 Table 4.20: Opinion on the Performance of Non-Suburban Services .................................................................................... 140 Table 5.1: Results 6f the Estimated Demand Function for the Railway Passenger Service ................................................... 150 Table 5.2: Date of increase in Petrol and Diesel Price ........................................................................................................... 153 Table 5.3: Results of the Exogenous Shock Model using Daily Data of Earnings (ER) and Passenger Kilometre (PKM): ER as Dependent Variable ........................................................................................................................................................... 153 Table 5.4: Results of the Exogenous Shock Model using Daily Data of Earnings and Passenger Kilometre (PKM): PKM as Dependent Variable ............................................................................................................................................................... 154 Table 5.5: Definitions of Variables used in Logistic Regression .......................................................................................... 156 Table 5.6: Willingness to Pay when the Travel Time is Decreased by 10-20 % (Suburban) ................................................. 157 Table 5.7: Willingness to Pay when Train Service increased by (say) adding Two More Trains (Suburban) ....................... 158 Table 5.8: Willingness