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2.6 PLANNING of the SELECTED OPTION 2.6.1 Future Transport Demand CREATS: Phase II Final Report, Vol. II: Strategic Corridors, Area Transport Management and Development Program Chapter 2: EAST WING PUBLIC TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT 2.6 PLANNING OF THE SELECTED OPTION 2.6.1 Future Transport Demand (1) East Wing Passengers A further detailed demand forecast was conducted only for the railway option 1 (R1) selected through the preceding screening process in order to formulate a planning framework of technical, engineering and operational aspects, including design criteria for track layout, stations and facilities, train operation scheme and procurements of rolling stocks. The economic analysis is also based on the newly projected demand. The outcomes of the demand forecast elaborated in this section are not identical to those discussed in the screening process as described in Section 2.5.2, because of setting of different assumptions for the above purpose. Major difference of the assumptions between both cases is tabulated below: For the Screening Process For Elaborated Forecast Number of Zones 503 525 Train Speed Total Number of Trips in the Study 25.14 million 25.65 million Area - Ain Shams-Oboor: 60km/h - Ain Shams-Oboor: 60 km/h - Oboor-Industrial Area: 80km/h - Oboor-Industrial Area: 80km/h Train Speed - Industrial Area-Bus Terminal: - Industrial Area-Bus Terminal: 60km/h 50km/h 2007: LE0.63 + 3 P/km The same fare system after verifying Fare System 2012: LE0.74 + 4 P/km the optimal fare level 2022: LE1.00 + 5 P/km Headway Every 6 minutes Every 6 minutes In particular, the number of traffic zones was refined for this feasibility study to be increase from 503 to 525, because of needs of more accurate projections, focusing on the Project. Related to such an increase in the number of zones, the total number of trips eventually increased from 25.14 million to 25.65 million, because intra-zonal trips among additional zones were counted. Table 2.6.1 and Figure 2.6.1 show the forecasted daily passenger flow of the East Wing. This forecast results are based on different assumptions as described above. Therefore, it should be noted that numbers of passengers are different from Table 2.5.1, which was projected for the screening purposes. Looking into the distribution of daily passengers for both directions by section, the sections between Salam City and Shorooq shows a high passenger volume. 2 - 39 CREATS: Phase II Final Report, Vol. II: Strategic Corridors, Area Transport Management and Development Program Chapter 2: EAST WING PUBLIC TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT The highest volume is seen in the section between the Ring Road and Oboor, approximately 390,000 passengers per day for both directions. The passengers flow considerably reduces to be approximately 200,000 in the section between Salam City and Ain Shams, because passengers transfer at Salam City Station to Metro Line 3, to go to/from the central Cairo areas. Table 2.6.1 Future Transport Demand Forecast Results (Number of Daily Passenger for Both Directions) Section 2007 2012 2022 Ain Shams Salam City 64,469 94,961 207,531 Salam City Ring Road 64,469 94,961 386,796 Ring Road Oboor 65,250 96,633 389,961 Oboor Darb El Hag 50,903 71,802 331,107 Darb El Hag Shorooq 47,526 67,977 300,068 Shorooq Industrial Area 47,060 56,221 176,614 Industrial Area 10th of Ramadan 33,933 50,024 171,823 10th of Ramadan Bus Terminal 25,851 37,496 110,685 Source: JICA Study Team Bus Terminal Daily Passengers 10th of Ramadan 300,000 200,000 Industrial Area 100,000 Shorooq Oboor Ring Road Ain Shams Darb EL Hag Salam City Source: JICA Study Team Figure 2.6.1 Passenger Flow of the East Wing in 2022 (Both Directions) Table 2.6.2 shows the projection of peak-hour passenger flow per hour and per direction between stations in 2007, 2012 and 2022. The peak ratio was assumed to be 10 % of daily traffic, based on Metro passenger information. Justification of the peak ratio is explained in Section 2.6.6. 2 - 40 CREATS: Phase II Final Report, Vol. II: Strategic Corridors, Area Transport Management and Development Program Chapter 2: EAST WING PUBLIC TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT Table 2.6.2 Peak-hour Transport Demand Forecast Results (Number of Peak-hour Passengers per Hour & per Direction) Section 2007 2012 2022 Ain Shams Salam City 3,223 4,748 10,377 Salam City Ring Road 3,223 4,748 19,340 Ring Road Oboor 3,263 4,832 19,498 Oboor Darb El Hag 2,545 3,590 16,555 Darb El Hag Shorooq 2,376 3,399 15,003 Shorooq Industrial Area 2,353 2,811 8,831 Industrial Area 10th of Ramadan 1,697 2,501 8,591 10th of Ramadan Bus Terminal 1,293 1,875 5,534 Source: JICA Study Team (2) Metro Passenger Metro Line 1 is even now carrying a large number of passengers. Therefore, it would be a concern if an additional large volume of passengers can be transferred to the Metro after the completion of the East Wing railway. According to the CREATS Model, in the case of Metro Line 1, the maximum passenger flow was forecasted at 573,000 passengers per day per direction in the section between Demerdash and Ghamra in 2022. The hourly volume would be less than 60,000 per direction. This volume will be able to be carried by modern railway trains, given appropriate improvement measures for the capacity enhancement, for example, by increasing the number of cars per train. As for Metro Line 3, it was confirmed that Metro Line 3 will take one third of passengers from the East Wing railway to the city center after the opening of the line. The maximum passenger flow per section was forecast as 537,000 per day and per direction in the section between Maspero and Naser. This volume is less than that of Metro Line 1, which means Metro Line 3 could accommodate passengers, given an appropriate measure. 2.6.2 Design Criteria Since Option 1 (R1) was selected from the six options of the East Wing public transport development, the Study Team proceeds to the technical and engineering planning for Option 1, which is both the rehabilitation of the existing ENR Suez line and a new line construction to connect the 10th of Ramadan City with the existing ENR line. In this section, the design criteria for Option 1 are examined. Table 2.6.3 shows a summary of the proposed specifications of the Option 1 plan, and the proposed construction gauge and rolling stock gauge are as illustrated on Figure 2.6.2. 2 - 41 CREATS: Phase II Final Report, Vol. II: Strategic Corridors, Area Transport Management and Development Program Chapter 2: EAST WING PUBLIC TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT Table 2.6.3 Specification Item Project specifacation Gauge 1435 mm Horizontal Curvature Between Station Desirable 400m or more Minimum 300m On station platform Minimum 500m Depot/Workshop connections Minimum 200m or more Gradient Maximum track gradient on 3% Compensated Diesel car Vertical Curves Radius Minimum 4000m Rail size UIC 54.0kg/m L=25m Sleeper PC Sleeper or Wood Ballast depth Crushed stone (under the sleeper) Minimum 250mm or more Bank slope gradient 1:1.5 Formation width 10.65m Ballast width 7.00m Design Speed Max. Speed 100 km/h Power supply system Diesel Electrical engine Source: JICA Study Team Source: JICA Study Team Figure 2.6.2 Construction Gauge and Rolling Stock Gauge 2 - 42 CREATS: Phase II Final Report, Vol. II: Strategic Corridors, Area Transport Management and Development Program Chapter 2: EAST WING PUBLIC TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT (3) Track Gauge ENR currently uses the standard gauge. The recommended standard track gauge is 1.435 mm the same as the existing gauge. The gauge is measured between running faces of rails at 14 mm below the top of the rails. At curved sections and turnout sections, no gauge widening is applied. Curves will be designed with a curvature of at least 300 m in radius to meet the requirements of future train operating speed. The maximum rail gradient will be 30/1000. (4) Rail The rail shall be either of the UIC 60 (60 kg/m) or UIC 54 (54 kg/m) profile. Insulated joints shall be provided for the signaling system. The UIC standard rails are highly reliable and have been widely used in railways all over the world. The rails will be delivered in lengths of 25 m per unit as a maximum. (5) Sleepers Standard concrete pre-stressed mono-bloc sleepers are proposed. Alternatively post-tensioned concrete sleepers can be used subject to the preference of ENR. Special considerations should be given to the effective fixation of the guard rails. The length of sleepers is approximately 2,400 mm long. The width of the sleepers at the base is approximately 200 mm. The space between sleepers on the main line shall be 60 cm, while it shall be 70 cm in the depot. Sleepers for turnouts and sections within 20 m of the turnouts (rail without inclination) shall be made from concrete or vacuum treated hard wood. (6) Ballast ENR currently use limestone and granite ballast. New ballast shall be crushed stone extracted from non-friable unweathered igneous or metamorphic rock, i.e., granite. It is desirable that the road bed ballast be replaced with crushed stone and that materials be screened if gravel from rivers is used. For the materials, the LA abrasion test should be applied with the internationally acknowledged criteria. The design thickness of ballast will be 25 cm under the sleepers (Figure 2.6.3).
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