South Korea's Global Nuclear Ambitions 核に関する韓国の世界的野心

David Adam Stott

South Korea’s Global Nuclear Ambitions its partners, whilst Seoul estimates that Korean firms will reap a further harvest of US$20 David Adam Stott billion over the 60-year lifespan of the reactors by way of maintenance, servicing and fuel Introduction supply contracts. With a total value estimated at around $40 billion, this was the largest “We had been building nuclear contract awarded in the Gulf last year, and the power stations for 30 years but biggest single contract that South Korean firms had failed in repeated attempts to have ever secured overseas. Indeed,, aside break into international markets.” from military hardware, it is likely also the biggest contract ever signed in the Gulf region. South Korean President Lee Moreover, both sides view the landmark Myung-bak in a January 2010 radio contract as a stepping stone to a much deeper address. [1] economic relationship in which both countries pour greater foreign investment into the other. Indeed, Abu Dhabi has recently endowed South December 2009 was an historic month for the Korean firms with numerous large contracts to South Korean nuclear industry. In winning two upgrade its petrochemical infrastructure. bidding competitions to design and construct nuclear power plants in the Middle East, it dramatically signalled its arrival as an international force in the sector. The opening announcement concerned Jordan’s first nuclear research reactor whilst the second, and most important, was a massive contract to build at least four nuclear power plants in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The South Korean team was one of nine original bidders and beat off competition from France and an American- Japanese consortium from the final shortlist of three. As the USA, France and Japan account for almost half of the world’s total nuclear reactors, this was an impressive achievement, especially since it will be the first nuclear power plant that Korea has exported.

The initial deal with the UAE to construct the reactors is worth around US$20 billion to KEPCO (Korean Electric Power Company) and Middle East states that have discussed

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bilateral nuclear cooperation agreements than more experienced exporters such as since 2008. France or the US-Japanese consortium. Finally, the article concludes with a brief outline of South Korea’s global nuclear export strategy Data from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicates that 436 nuclear and a wider discussion of economic ties reactors are presently operating in some 30 between South Korea and the UAE. countries. However, with more than half of these 436 reactors due for retirement by 2030, Korea’s nuclear energy countries which export nuclear infrastructure will likely be competing for a bounty of new South Korea seems set to become a major force contracts in the next decade. Indeed,in the global nuclear energy business, worldwide another 53 nuclear reactors are exporting technology and expertise around the currently under construction and a further 136 world. With few fossil fuel resources, like are in the planning stages. Emerging markets Japan, South Korea has sought to harness in the Middle East are keen to introduce nuclear energy as a means to secure the nuclear power into their energy portfolios, and country’s rapid economic development. Over South Korean consortia have been at the the last three decades, South Korea has forefront of Arab moves to diversify both their averaged 8.6% annual GDP growth, with a economies and energy portfolios by adopting corresponding leap in electricity consumption. nuclear power. In 1980 the country consumed some 33 billion Given the increasing concerns over global kilowatt hours (kWh), which had risen by 2006 warming and peak oil theory, nuclear power to around 371 billion kWh. Today 20 reactors has been championed as a clean andaccount for 28.5% of South Korea’s total sustainable alternative for producingcapacity but actually provide 36% of the electricity. Nuclear power does indeed emit country’s electricity. A further 12 plants are in comparatively low levels of carbon dioxide, and the construction or planning phases, which will can generate a large amount of electricity from further increase the nuclear share in the a single plant. Nevertheless, the drawbacks are country’s electricity consumption, which is many. Notably, nuclear waste is so hazardous projected to reach 59% of electricity supply by that it has to be carefully managed for several 2030. All of South Korea’s nuclear power plants thousand years. The environmental are operated by Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power consequences of accidents or attacks can be catastrophic, as seen from the Chernobyl Co Ltd (KHNP), a subsidiary of state utility disaster of 1986, and it is a relatively easy step Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO). to move from peaceful power generation to weapons development. Moreover, nuclear energy is itself derived from uranium, a finite resource albeit one which the IAEA expects to last for at least 80 more years even without new discoveries in technologies or deposits. [2]

This paper assesses the development of the Korean nuclear power industry. It then shows why its clients in the Middle East want to harness nuclear energy and why they have chosen South Korea to lead this process rather

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The genesis of the South Korea nuclear further four are under construction and should industry can be traced to 1957 when it became be supplying electricity between 2010 and a member of the IAEA and immediately 2012. The KSNP+ project features numerous implemented a nuclear research programme. design improvements for enhanced safety and The country’s first nuclear reactor, a small lower construction costs, and their advanced research unit, achieved criticality in 1962. design, low operating costs and enviable safety Thereafter, its first commercial power plants record have positioned Korea at the forefront of were developed by foreign contractors, with the global nuclear power industry. Kori 1 being the first to supply electricity from April 1978. This was followed by a further eight The next evolutionary stage in Korean nuclear reactors being constructed in the 1980s. Kori 1 technology is represented by the Advanced and Kori 2, the first two commercial nuclear Pressurised Reactor-1400 (APR-1400), on power stations, were built under contract by an which work began in 1992 and whose basic American consortium, whilst Wolsong 1, the design was finalised in 1999. With a 60-year third plant, was bought from Atomic Energy of shelf life, it is anticipated that costs will be Canada (AECL). The next six, Kori 3 & 4, 10-20% under those incurred by OPR-1000 Yonggwang 1 & 2, Ulchin 1 & 2, again featured units, due to design advancements and foreign-designed reactors but with a much enhanced construction techniques. It is these greater involvement in the construction from OPR-1000 and APR-1400 units that KEPCO has local firms, particularly Hyundai. By the end of been marketing in the Middle East and North the 1980s, Korea had six nuclear power plants Africa. conceived by American firm Combustion Engineering (now part of WestinghouseGiven its progress in developing the KSNP, in Electric), two from France’s Framatome (now 2007 KHNP opted not to renew its technology AREVA Nuclear Power) and one from AECL. transfer scheme with Westinghouse. Instead, the two firms agreed that either could market As in Japan, which imported its first turnkey technology which they have developed together plants from the UK in the 1960s, theand implicitly not compete against each other indigenisation of the Korean nuclear power for overseas contracts using APR-1400 units. industry quickly gathered pace, and strove for Whilst Westinghouse still retains the patents greater self-sufficiency by standardisingfor a few necessary technologies in the nuclear power plant design. To this end, in APR-1400 from its acquisition of Combustion 1987 Korea began a ten-year reactorEngineering, South Korea aims to become fully technology licence agreement with Combustion self-sufficient in this sector by 2012. Indeed, it Engineering, a collaboration which yielded the is reported that Korean companies have Korean Standard Nuclear Plant (KSNP). This already become proficient in the design and agreement was subsequently extended in 1997, manufacture of all APR-1400 components. and since 1995 all nuclear plants in South Whilst KEPCO has also offered APR-1400s in Korea have been built almost exclusively with other territories such as Poland and Belarus, it local technology. is thought that Westinghouse is unlikely to let it compete in lucrative markets such as the US The KSNP is now an internationally recognised and China unless KEPCO purchases in full the design, and has progressed to KSNP+, which design’s intellectual property. Therefore, the was re-branded in 2005 as OPR-1000cooperation agreement also specifies that (Optimised Power Reactor) for export to KHNP is to develop its own components to emerging Asian markets. In South Korea eight replace those in the AP-1400 which require OPR1000 units are in now operation, whilst a licensing from Westinghouse. This would

3 8 | 12 | 1 APJ | JF enable Korean firms to meet the Ministry of Africa look set to emerge as the next big Education, Science & Technology’s target for regional market for civilian nuclear power, the country to develop its nuclear industry into hence the efforts that Korean and other one of the world’s top five by 2011, and allow it producers are making to court them. This to compete even more forcefully in the global technology would allow Arab states to move market. away from oil and gas for electricity generation, thus boosting exports volumes of both commodities. Such energy would also enable seawater desalination which is very costly and consumes large amounts of fossil fuels in this mostly arid region. Therefore it is hardly surprising that countries such as Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yemen and the UAE have been discussing bilateral agreements with established nuclear power producing countries and soliciting proposals from foreign contractors.

The six members of the wealthy Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman - announced in December 2006 that they were An artist’s impression of South Korea’s looking into harnessing nuclear energy. These Shin-Kori 3 and 4 reactors countries all rely exclusively on fossil fuels for electricity generation and have been A major step towards accomplishing this aim experiencing 5-7% annual demand growth in was made when the UAE selected therecent years. Given their locations, seawater APR-1400 as the standard for its nascent desalination also consumes large qualities of nuclear power programme, with the first four fossil fuels, especially natural gas. Indeed, by reactors scheduled to be on line by 2020, and a 2007 around 75% of total world desalination further ten envisaged thereafter. Whilst there capacity was concentrated in the Middle East. are no APR-1400 plants presently in operation, Removing excess salt and other minerals from the first two units currently under construction sea water to make potable water is very energy in South Korea, Shin-Kori 3 and 4, are slated to intensive. A 2009 report estimates that be finished in 2013-14 and will act as a electricity demand in the GCC block will reference point for the UAE plants. The chief increase 10% per annum to 2015, accompanied designer of these APR-1400 units is Korea by desalination demand rising annually by 8%, Power Engineering Company (KOPEC) with in total requiring 60 gigawatts of electricity Doosan as the lead manufacturer. Whilst Shin- (GWe) of new capacity by 2015. [3] Kori 3 and 4 are expected to take 51 months to be completed, construction of the UAE plants is All six GCC members are signatories to the scheduled to take 48 months. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and France quickly signalled its willingness to Nuclear power in the UAE cooperate whilst Iran also promised assistance. GCC members, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed in The Arab states of the Middle East and North February 2007 with the IAEA to launch a

4 8 | 12 | 1 APJ | JF feasibility study into a GCC-wide nuclear power strategy for nuclear-powered seawater and desalination scheme, with Riyadhdesalination, which consumes large quantities envisioning a programme emerging around of fossil fuels to provide around 70% of the 2009. However, since the IAEA submitted a UAE’s water supply. pre-feasibility study to the regional body in late 2007 there has been no progress in any joint Therefore, the electricity from the UAE’s GCC nuclear programme, and various member nuclear reactors will bring at least four main states have consequently signed their own benefits. Firstly, and most importantly, it will bilateral agreements with established nuclear enable more cost-effective water desalination. energy producers. Second, nuclear energy will begin to replace costly natural gas imports in generating The UAE’s plans are the most advanced with electricity. In addition, extra electricity Abu Dhabi in the vanguard of such unilateral capacity will help the UAE diversify its moves. In April 2008 it independently published economy and expand output of finished goods. a comprehensive nuclear energy policy outline, Lastly, these nuclear reactors could allow the assembled with input from the IAEA and the UAE to become a net exporter of electricity to governments of France, the US, Britain, Russia, other countries in the region even though many China, Japan, Germany, and South Korea. This of its neighbours are also looking at nuclear white paper forecast electricity demandpower. To achieve these goals will require growing by 9% per annum from 15.5 GWe in major upgrades to the UAE’s electricity 2008 to over 40 GWe in 2020, with natural gas infrastructure, however. supplies sufficient for only half of this. At present, around 98% of the UAE’s total The UAE’s nuclear plans gathered pace in April capacity is derived from gas. Indeed, in 2008 2008 with the publication of its nuclear policy Abu Dhabi, the wealthiest and biggest of the outline. This was followed in mid-2008 with seven Emirates with the largest oil reserves, appointment of the UAE ambassador to the began importing natural gas from Qatar as its IAEA, and establishment of a Nuclear Energy own deposits contain too much sulphur to make Program Implementation Organisation upon power generation cost effective. Imported coal the IAEA’s recommendation. The national was dismissed as an option to meet this Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC) shortfall due to environmental and energy was subsequently founded, charged with security implications, whilst buttressing extant facilitating all nuclear power projects within oil and diesel generation was also discounted UAE. It is ENEC which has been dealing with due to environmental and cost concerns. all the prospective foreign suppliers of technology and expertise, and which chose the The reason for this increasing demand has Korean consortium over the other bidders. been the urbanisation and construction boom of the last decade, as record oil revenues have fuelled economic expansion and population growth. Indeed, the UAE was one of the fastest growing economies in the world between 2000 and 2007, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 9.3% in the five years to the end of 2007. [4] Whilst some of these mega projects are being delayed by the global credit crisis, they will nonetheless strain the UAE’s power grid. In addition, the UAE is also formulating a

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will also have the right to conduct snap inspections and be allowed unlimited access to the nuclear sites. Those states and companies interested in exporting nuclear power probably hope that the UAE nuclear power programme will become the template for other interested governments in the Middle East and North Africa.

Rather than taking the more tortuous route of developing indigenous expertise, the ENEC has been proposing joint-venture schemes with foreign contractors to construct and operate its nuclear power plants. These will be similar to UAE Prime Minister and Vice-President the UAE’s existing water and electricity set ups Sheikh Mohammed with the Korean Prime in which the government has a 60% stake and Minister Han Seung-soo on June 22, 2009. 40% is owned by joint venture partners. The ENEC originally invited nine companies to In order to facilitate commercial agreements, submit proposals for the construction of its first the UAE has also been very activenuclear power plant, sparking stiff competition diplomatically to secure bilateral nuclear among foreign contractors to break into this cooperation agreements with established lucrative new market. ENEC subsequently industry players. The UAE first signed a full whittled their number down to a final short list nuclear cooperation agreement with France in of three candidates in mid-May 2009. These January 2008, followed by a MoU with the UK were the French team of GdF Suez, AREVA and in May 2008 and subsequently the US and Total; an American-Japanese consortium of Japan in January 2009. On June 22, 2009, South General Electric and Hitachi; and a South Korea became the fifth country to sign such a Korean bid spearheaded by its national power deal during a visit by Prime Minister Han company KEPCO, partnered by other Korean Seung-soo. Bilateral nuclear cooperation firms Samsung, Hyundai and Doosan Heavy agreements are precursors to any commercial Industries. It is understood the UAE will deals and in this sense those signed by the UAE standardise on one technology. contain significantly more substance than those of other Arab states. Seoul’s agreement with Although the French consortium was the UAE is similar to that signed byconsidered by many the favourite, it was Washington, which permits the use of US announced on December 28, 2009 that KEPCO technology and expertise in the UAE’s nuclear won the contract to build and operate the four programme. nuclear reactors. The Korean bid was considered the underdog because of the high- To secure their participation, and to maintain level diplomacy carried out by the French and its image as an outward-looking, foreign the long-standing ties between Washington and investment-friendly nation, the Emirates has the Emirates. Indeed, the French consortium stressed that it will not enrich uranium itself was quietly confident given that French but import nuclear fuel for its plants. These President Nicolas Sarkozy has been particularly supplies will come from a foreign partner and, proactive in nuclear diplomacy since entering furthermore, the UAE will return all spent office in May 2007. In trying to promote the nuclear fuel rather than reprocess it. The IAEA French civilian nuclear industry worldwide, he

6 8 | 12 | 1 APJ | JF has signed several bilateral agreements to (EPR) design would take 57 months to build nuclear reactors or extend technical construct. The US-Japanese consortium assistance, namely with Morocco, Algeria, Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR), like Libya, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Tunisia, the APR-1400, would take 48 months to build. Jordan, India and China. The agreement with Korean government data claims that both the UAE is the most comprehensive of these construction costs and electricity generation and was sealed during Sarkozy’s tour of the costs are significantly lower for its APR-1400 Middle East in January 2008, during which he units than for the other consortia’s designs (see lobbied for French firms in the newly-table below). Each APR-1400 unit can generate announced power plant bid. French companies 1,400 megawatts (MWe) but the French EPR AREVA and Suez already jointly operate a has a slightly larger capacity at about 1,600 power and desalination station in Abu Dhabi. MWe. Furthermore, France also opened a naval base outside Abu Dhabi in May 2009, and has recently been in advanced talks with the Emirates to replace its ageing fighter fleet with French-made Dassault Rafale multi-purpose fighter jets. France is already one of the UAE’s major suppliers of military hardware and has even proposed opening a branch of the Louvre museum in the country. Meanwhile, the Gulf * This refers to the so-called ‘overnight cost’, or state also plays host to more than 2,000 US the cost if no interest was incurred during military personnel, and has been a valued construction due to it being completed partner in recent American operations in overnight. This term can also refer to the cost if Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as in the 1990 the project is fully paid for up front in a lump Gulf War and in Somalia in 1992. sum.

Nevertheless Abu Dhabi, the driving force behind the deal, has ostensibly based its Given the cost benefits, UAE officials were decision on the merits of the proposal. It is reportedly impressed that the technical likely that KEPCO offered the lowest price, and specifications of the APR-1400 were on a par the Korean government was also heavily with those from the other consortia. Indeed, involved in supporting the KEPCO bid behind the APR-1400 features innovative safety the scenes. Emirati nuclear officials have measures not found in other reactors. For praised Korea for its on-time delivery record example, given the tensions on the Korean and enviable safety history. Indeed, South peninsula the designers saw fit to include a Korea’s reactors have had the fewestmissile shield, and the APR-1400 also production stoppages of any country in the showcases structural enhancements to prevent world. Perhaps, the UAE government was also or reduce earthquake damage to the reactor. keen to strengthen its bilateral relationship The APR-1400 also features a state-of-the-art with an emerging economy and reduce any control room with numerous innovative leverage Paris, Tokyo or Washington might controls. All three short-listed consortia offered have in future arms or oil deals. [5] plants with an operating duration of 60 years, which is double the lifespan of most nuclear The Korean bid was considered veryreactors on line today, and all three offerings competitive in terms of both timeframe and require refuelling after around 18 months of cost. The French European Pressurised Reactor operation.

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If the KEPCO consortium can replicate its its export-driven economy similar to that of domestic success in the UAE, South Korea cars and electronic goods. The next step is for stands to become the world’s preeminent ENEC and KEPCO to establish a joint-venture nuclear reactor exporter. At present, South entity to build and operate the four plants. Korean domestic build times are some of the ENEC is still assessing other potential fastest in the world, but the country’s nuclear contractors for ancillary services to its nascent power industry is unproven on foreign soil. nuclear energy programme, such as fuel Even though its engineers have forged a suppliers, investment partners and education convincing technical reputation, projectservices. management has been something of an Achilles heel. To assist with the transition to working It is clear that KEPCO will be deeply involved in offshore, KEPCO has brought in AMEC, an all aspects of the project: construction, experienced British engineering consultancy engineering, procurement, nuclear fuelling and firm, to help with project management on maintenance. As well as being assisted by its nuclear and other energy projects overseas. own subsidiaries, the other consortium Nevertheless, South Korean firms havemembers Samsung, Hyundai and Doosan Heavy certainly made great strides in the last decade Industries will also play major roles. KHNP will as previously clients refused to consider them be at the centre of the project as the for large-scale resource developments as they construction contractor and operator, and also lacked experience. Since then Koreanresponsible for engineering and procurement. engineering companies have built up a solid KOPEC will design the nuclear power plants, reputation around the world on a wide range of Korea Nuclear Fuel (KNF) will provide the infrastructure projects. Moreover, the deal was nuclear fuel, while Korea Plant Service and a personal triumph for South Korean President Engineering (KPS) will be part of the Lee Myung-bak, a former CEO of Hyundai maintenance team. In addition to AMEC, other Engineering and Construction, who travelled to non-Korean companies involved include the UAE to lobby for the Korean bid just before Westinghouse, now 67% owned by Toshiba, and the announcement. Furthermore, he sees its Japanese parent company due to their exporting nuclear technology as a way for his control of patented technologies still necessary country to be internationally recognised as an to build the APR-1400. Specifically, advanced nation during its 2010 presidency of Westinghouse will supply equipment, the G-20 organisation of major economies. engineering and fuel-service contracts to the KEPCO consortium. Seoul expects the nuclear power plant deal to bring in about $40 billion over the life of the It is not clear exactly how lucrative control of agreement. Construction of the reactors alone these patents will be for Westinghouse, will cost $20 billion, which Korean media particularly since KEPCO has expressed speculate will create around 110,000 jobs over confidence that it can replace these the next 10 years. The remaining $20 billion components with its own designs by the end of will come from contracts to operate, maintain 2012. Indeed, technology controlled by and supply fuel to the reactors during their 60- Westinghouse forms the basis of around 50% of year lifespan. The Ministry of Knowledge the world’s presently operating nuclear plants. Economy hailed the deal as the biggest single Nevertheless, the two firms still seem contract that Korean firms have ever secured committed to their business cooperation mode overseas. Korean presidential spokesman Lee as in early 2009 KEPCO subsidiary KNF Dong-kwan expressed hope that the deal will established a new joint venture company with transform nuclear infrastructure into a pillar of the American nuclear pioneer to manufacture

8 8 | 12 | 1 APJ | JF control element assemblies (CEAs) for plants Olkiluoto 3 reactor development in Finland, using Combustion Engineering designswhich is significantly behind schedule and over operating in both the US and South Korea. budget. The UAE’s review of the firm’s recent Westinghouse and KNF hold 55% and 45% track record in Finland will have uncovered ownership respectively of the new company, unseemly rows with both the Finnish nuclear KW Nuclear Components (KWN), located at the regulatory agency and the project’s KNF fuel fabrication plant in Daejeon, south of subcontractors, and would have hurt the Seoul. It seems that Shin Kori 4 will be the first French consortium’s reputation. Moreover, the plant to feature these new CEAs. French bid to construct the reactors was significantly higher than KEPCO’s, with In addition to the direct economic benefits speculation rife that it originally started at US there could be trickle-down effects throughout $40 billion, double that of the Korean team. the wider economy. UAE officials have stressed Whilst the French consortium reportedly that 60% of the workforce to operate the plants lowered their bid in November 2009, it was not will be Emirati nationals who will be trained enough to convince the UAE authorities. The both overseas and at Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa US-Japan bid fronted by GE and Hitachi offered University. This should also lead to thea proven reactor design which is operating at development of specialised human resources in various power plants in Japan, but one which other areas, and should greatly spur the will be almost 30 years old when the UAE’s diversification of the Emirates economy away first plant comes on line. From the outset Abu from a reliance on oil exports. The agreement Dhabi has stressed its interest in the most calls for the first phase of the scheme to start cutting edge nuclear technology on the market. delivering nuclear energy by 2017, with the four plants eventually meeting up to 25% of the Nuclear power in Jordan country’s electricity needs after 2020 when all are scheduled to be operational. Following the lead of wealthier Arab states, in May 2009 Amman outlined an ambitious plan to establish four nuclear power plants in southern Jordan over the next 30-35 years. Originally the scheme called for the first of these to become operational by 2017, but it is unlikely to meet this date and recent statements suggest a 2020 start is more realistic. As a necessary first step, Jordan has signed bilateral nuclear cooperation agreements or preliminary memoranda of understanding (MoU) with eleven different countries including South Korea, Japan, France, China, Canada, Russia, and the United States. Amman also plans to sign similar agreements with Romania and the Czech Republic before the end of 2010, in addition to AREVA’s troubled Olkiluoto 3 reactor seeking assistance from IAEA. The deals with development in Finland. South Korea and Japan cover infrastructure for both nuclear electricity generation and water desalination. Despite their experience, the French bid was damaged by AREVA’s troubles pertaining to the In November 2009 the Jordan Atomic Energy

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Commission (JAEC) chose Australianfive years, and is slated to also provide some consultants WorleyParsons to prepare the pre- commercial services to cover costs. Lee Jong- construction phase of the first power plant. min, a KAERI researcher, has explained the WorleyParsons will also assist JAEC in selecting Korean role. “About 97 percent of the whole the contractors to build the nuclear reactors. design and construction process will be based By November 2009 the options had been on Korean technology, when calculated in cost. narrowed down to five bidders: the KEPCO However, the fuel used in the reactor will be APR-1400, French firm AREVA, the Canadian purchased from a foreign provider and a Enhanced Candu 6 and two Russian Rosatom Jordanian construction company will be picked reactors. The deadline for deciding this final to build the reactor based on our blueprint.” [8] strategic partner is late 2012. In contrast to the If this project is successful, it should further UAE, which will standardise on one technology benefit Korean firms targeting the Middle for its first four nuclear power plants, JAEC East’s burgeoning nuclear energy market. Chairman Khaled Toukan has stated that Jordan may turn to different technologies and Like the UAE, Jordan is a very dry country contractors for the construction of its four which suffers from a ‘water deficit’ of about 1.4 proposed plants. Hence, unsuccessful bidders million m3 per day but, unlike the UAE, has for the first power plant will retain thevirtually no oil or gas resources to power large- possibility to export their nuclear technology in scale seawater desalination. As such, the subsequent projects. [6] Given Seoul’s recent country has to import around 95% of its energy success in securing the UAE deal, South Korea requirements at a cost of around one-fifth of its must be considered among the favourites. gross domestic product. Moreover, water Moreover, Hyundai Heavy Industries recently scarcity will become an even greater problem selected WorleyParsons as its subcontractor for in the near future due to population growth, the Umm Shaif gas re-injection project in Abu measured at 2.5% per annum in the 2004 Dhabi, in a deal that could be worth up to census, and climate change, which potentially US$150 million for the Australian firm. This makes precipitation more unpredictable in the might give the KEPCO bid a further advantage. region. Therefore, it is envisaged that the nuclear power plants will generate up to 750 In the meantime, Jordan is also looking to MWe of energy for desalination and water establish its first nuclear research reactor, and pumping. Compounding water shortages is in early December 2009 JAEC announced that spiralling demand for electricity, increasing another South Korean consortium had won the 5.4% annually, also spurred by demographics contract to build it. This small-scale 5 MWe and an average economic growth rate of 7% nuclear plant will be located at the Jordan per annum since 1999. At present, the country University of Science and Technology (JUST) to has a total generating capacity of around 2400 facilitate research and training for indigenous MWe but anticipates demand rising to 3600 nuclear engineering students andMWe by 2015 and 4800 MWe by 2030, placing professionals. [7] The consortium of the Korea Jordan on the precipice of an energy crisis. Atomic Energy Institute (KAERI) and Daewoo Engineering and Construction will build the It is envisaged that Jordan’s nuclear project will reactor at the JUST facility in Irbid, 70work in tandem with the Red Sea-Dead Sea kilometres north of Amman. At present, there Water Conveyance Concept which aims to are around 240 research reactors in operation restore the Dead Sea, whose depth has been globally, and 50 new units are expected to be falling one metre a year mostly due to the finished within the next decade-and-a-half. The overuse of water from the Jordan River for JUST plant is due to be on line within the next agricultural and industrial purposes. A

10 8 | 12 | 1 APJ | JF feasibility study has been assessing theimports. [11] scheme’s plan to construct a canal from the Red Sea to pump sea water to the Dead Sea. The genesis of Jordan’s nuclear initiatives can Regional cooperation on water has been be traced back to 2007 when the Kingdom’s hampered by the long-running Arab-Israeli energy minister announced that significant conflict, and the success of the Red-Dead uranium deposits had been discovered, scheme depends on cooperation between estimated at two per cent of the world total. Jordan, Palestine and Israel. The project is The most recent data states that Jordan has also crucial to Jordan’s nuclear powerlow-cost uranium resources of around 140,000 programme and will, if realised, complement it tonnes, with an additional 59,000 tonnes locked by generating hydroelectric power for use in in four separate phosphate deposits. These desalination. Raed Abu Saud, Jordan’s Minister discoveries have prompted a dramatic reversal of Water & Irrigation, envisages that, “Around of energy strategy, which King Abdullah II first 40% of the desalination plants that will be alluded to in an interview with Israeli established in Jordan will use their energy from newspaper Ha’aretz on January 19, 2007. Since the nuclear plants, which will be our main then Amman has moved faster than most other consumers. This will encourage us to carry out Arab countries to sign bilateral cooperation the first phase of the Red-Dead project faster.” deals with established nuclear energy states, [9] and to ink infrastructure development contracts with international nuclear The first reactor will be located in Aqaba consultants. Governorate along the Red Sea coast, and should produce 750 - 1,100 MWe of electricity With many countries in the Arab world looking initially using seawater for cooling. Aqaba was into nuclear energy schemes, Jordan could reap chosen because of its proximity to the Red Sea, a commercial windfall if its uranium reserves pre-existing infrastructure at the Port of Aqaba are indeed large enough to make mining and the electrical grid. JAEC has plans to financially viable. Uranium would thus enable establish up to six reactors at the site. It is the country to reduce costly oil and gas imports hoped that when the Red-Dead project is to meet its energy needs and it would offer the operational, likely after 2025, the threeKingdom a potentially lucrative foreign revenue remaining power stations will be established source. Naturally, its discovery has led to using desalinated water from the Red-Dead considerable international interest from major project for cooling. The JAEC and the Ministry mining firms eager to secure a stake. The of Water and Irrigation envisage that the Kingdom has already signed uranium mining nuclear power plant will provide 726 MWe of agreements with major players such as British- electricity for the Red-Dead project’s water Australian resource giant Rio Tinto, Sino pumping and desalination procedures, with the Uranium, a wholly owned subsidiary company reactors eventually receiving 400 million m³ of China National Nuclear Corporation, and the per annum of desalinated water from the Red- Jordanian-French Uranium Mining Company, a Dead scheme for cooling. JAEC Chairman joint venture between the French energy Khaled Toukan explained that, “With the two conglomerate AREVA and the Jordan Energy programmes, one is really supporting the other, Resources. Although no uranium deals with and that is how we are going to move forward”. Jordan have been mooted as yet, Seoul is [10] Officials have even voiced the hope that known to be casting around for supplies nuclear power could provide as much as 60% of through investment in overseas extraction the Kingdom’s energy by 2035, thus reducing projects. At present South Korea’s self- Jordan’s heavy dependence on fossil fuel sufficiency in uranium-based nuclear fuel is

11 8 | 12 | 1 APJ | JF only enough to meet 6.7% of demand, but the business and has targeted the European government has set a goal of 25% by 2016 and market in particular. 50% by 2030. To consolidate their reactor exports, South Other nuclear markets Korean firms also have ambitions to provide services for the operation, maintenance and The UAE deal has given rise to an outpouring repair of reactors, in particular to overhaul and of confidence in South Korea and ambitious extend the shelf life of heavy water reactors. government targets after years of trying to kick This market is worth an estimated US$78 start nuclear exports. Seoul is hoping that the billion per annum worldwide, and in order to deal will showcase its nuclear power industry compete Vice Minister Kim has stated that throughout the world, especially in developing South Korea will train 2800 new nuclear markets where KEPCO’s units should be cost- experts by 2011. [13] attractive. This would be crucial to diversifying South Korea’s economy, particularly in heavy The most recent nuclear energy cooperation industry, which seeks to move away from deal signed was with Turkey on March 15, declining sectors. In the short-term, Kim 2010. KEPCO and the Turkish state power Young-hak, Vice Minister of Knowledgecompany Elektrik Uretim AS inked a joint Economy, has said that South Korea is aiming feasibility study into deploying the APR-1400 in to sign deals to build a further six reactors Sinop, a city near the Black Sea. If this overseas by 2012, in addition to the four UAE collaboration bears fruit, a full nuclear reactors. In the longer-term, the Ministry has cooperation agreement between Ankara and set a goal of exporting 80 nuclear reactors by Seoul will be signed to facilitate reactor 2030. It estimates that these would be worth development. Whilst no formal bidding process around US$400 billion, making South Korea has been mentioned as yet, KEPCO seems to be the third largest nuclear exporter with a 20% in a strong position and a decision might even share of the global market. The Ministry sees be forthcoming by the end of 2010. However, nuclear power as integral to its approach as Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz has stated Korean firms offer increasingly customised that Ankara is still open to alternative export strategies to suit individual countries. proposals from other foreign firms if any offer Consequently, KEPCO is targeting new markets more attractive terms for the proposed Sinop in India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand,plant. Moreover, whilst KEPCO estimates the Malaysia, South Africa, Turkey, and elsewhere scheme’s preliminary stages will take up to two in the Middle East to meet this goal. In doing years to complete, the Turkish authorities are so, it will face strong competition from the keen to shorten this timeframe. This is because USA, France and Russia, however. Indeed, a Turkey is looking to establish three nuclear KEPCO director has admitted that at present power plants, and previously signed a similar there are no other specific export deals on the deal with Russia’s Rosatom for a nuclear power table. “There are not many deals open to plant at Akkuyu on the Mediterranean coast. international bidding. But the UAE contract will The Turkish government is aiming to have help us win more deals as we now have a track nuclear reactors operating in two regions by record and some international recognition. 2023, and thus wants the Akkuyu and Sinop Nuclear deals are often big national projects projects to carry on simultaneously. Ankara has worth billions of dollars. So, strong national stressed that the South Koreans will have to power and effective diplomacy are needed.” take onboard a local partner if any reactor [12] KOPEC is also aiming to expand its reactor project emerges. [14]

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KEPCO and its subsidiary KHNP (Korea Hydro Korean firms will be among the favourites to and Nuclear Power, a KEPCO subsidiary) have construct and operate any such plants that in place a similar agreement with thematerialise in the Association of Southeast Indonesian state electricity firm PT Perusahaan Asian Nations (ASEAN). In February 2009, the Listrik Negara (PLN) to undertake a feasibility Deputy Secretary General of ASEAN stated that study for the archipelago’s first nuclear power most of its member countries were open to the plant. Moreover, in July 2007 KEPCO and idea of developing nuclear energy in future. KHNP also signed a memorandum of understanding with private sector energy firm Whilst KEPCO’s plans in Indonesia are in PT Medco Energi Internasional to conduct jeopardy, in August 2009 it signed an another feasibility study into building two agreement in Mumbai to conduct a joint study power plants for around US$3 billion. Rather with Nuclear Power Company of India (NPCIL) than the APR-1400, it is thought that any to assess the ‘licensability and constructability’ scheme with Indonesia would more likely of APR-1400 reactors in India. Since the de involve the older OPR-1000 design. KAERI has facto nuclear trade embargo against India was also designed an economical dual-use nuclear abandoned in 2008 there have been a string of power plant with a daily production capacity of suitors looking to sell nuclear reactors to such 40,000 m³ desalinated water and 90 MWe of a potentially huge market. Seoul is now electricity. The first of these was envisaged for competing with Russia, France and the US to Madura Island, close to Indonesia’s second export power plants to India. Other memoranda largest city of Surabaya. It was originally exchanged at the Mumbai meeting between forecast that this plant would be operational by NPCIL and KEPCO covered a wide range of 2015 but this now appears doubtful. nuclear services and India is reportedly interested in establishing up to 50 nuclear The Indonesian central government previously power plants. However, no commercial deals approved in principle the construction of four can be sealed until both governments sign a 1000 MWe units on the Muria peninsula on the bilateral nuclear cooperation agreement. north coast of Central Java. Whilst a commissioning date was provisionally set for Potentially the most lucrative market in the 2016, the central government National Power Asia-Pacific for South Korean nuclear Master Plan (RUKN) for 2008-2025 notably contractors is the People’s Republic of China makes no mention of a nuclear power plant, (PRC), which is looking to construct more than despite the 2007 RUKN doing so. This climb 100 nuclear power plants in the coming down by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono decades. Nuclear energy is especially attractive is related to opposition since September 2007 for China given that most of its industry is by the local branch of Nahdlatul Ulama, located in fast-growth central and southern Indonesia’s largest Islamic organisation, to the coastal areas very far from its main coal Muria peninsula nuclear scheme. This was reserves concentrated in the north and followed by a large protest in Central Java northwest. Transporting coal causes huge against the proposed power plant in April 2009 logistical problems, and consumes almost half when the President was on the campaign trail of China’s rail capacity, whereas nuclear power seeking re-election. Indeed, during the 2009 plants can usually be constructed relatively election campaign, no candidate spoke in near to high demand areas. After securing the favour of Jakarta’s nuclear plans. [15]UAE deal KEPCO stated it was now focused on Elsewhere in the region, Malaysia, Thailand winning new reactor deals in Turkey, Jordan and Vietnam have each informed the IAEA of and China. Back in July 2004 KEPCO their interest in harnessing nuclear power, and announced it was planning to establish four

13 8 | 12 | 1 APJ | JF nuclear power plants in China, but progress ushered in a new age of strategic since then has been scant. KEPCO has, partnership which will serve the however, since established a stronger interest of the two countries.” reputation in China as the largest foreign wind power generator in the country. Interestingly, Sheikh Khalifa, President of the Seoul’s Ministry of Knowledge Economy has UAE and Ruler of Abu Dhabi, upon recently gone on record as saying that it is now signing the nuclear contract with considering tying up with other global players the South Korean President Lee to penetrate major markets such as China and Myung-bak. [16] the US. In all likelihood this would mean Westinghouse and its parent company Toshiba, Nuclear cooperation with the UAE is already given their long-standing business ties. So far, having wide commercial benefits for South KHNP has only secured contracts to sell Korean enterprises. Indeed, South Korean nuclear components and support facilities to statistics indicate the total value of contracts both China and the US. However, with China secured by state companies such as KEPCO in having ambitious plans for at least a 600% the UAE during 2009 alone surpassed US$32 increase in nuclear energy capacity by 2020, billion. Given that the total value of all such South Korean firms will be keen to join the contracts won in the UAE is just over US$35 French, Russia, Canadian and American reactor billion, it is obvious that the UAE’s rulers have manufacturers already active in China in recently began entrusting South Korean firms commissioning some very advanced reactor with their country’s transformation. Indeed, as designs. stated by Kim Ji-ho, Samsung Engineering Abu Despite a wealth of new projects in the Dhabi’s business development manager, “Two pipeline, KEPCO’s president and CEO, Kim to three years ago there were no big contracts Ssang-su, has hinted at the difficulties of here with Korean companies”. [17] It seems opening up new nuclear markets. “Countries likely that further deals are in the offing, in like Turkey and India have preconditions like various sectors such as chemicals, renewable the extent of technology transfer, mandatory resources, nuclear energy, petrochemicals, use of local parts and components, anddefence and property. financing issues that need to be resolved.” Many of the other deals announced in 2009 Similar conditions prevail in China, too. Kim concern upgrades to Abu Dhabi’s oil and gas also revealed that Seoul has to engage both infrastructure. For instance, in November New Delhi and Beijing in substantial bilateral South Korean firms secured the four main negotiations before any commercial contracts with Abu Dhabi National Oil breakthroughs can be made. Moreover, many Company (ADNOC), worth a total of US $9.63 prospective customers require outside billion, for the US$10 billion expansion of the financing to pay for their nuclear reactors, and Emirate’s largest oil refinery at Ruwais. The some countries have been offering their following month, Hyundai Heavy Industries mineral resources in partial exchange for inked a US$1 billion scheme with the Abu KEPCO reactors. [16] Dhabi Gas Liquefaction Company (ADGAS) for Non-nuclear markets the construction of a gas processing plant on Das Island close to Abu Dhabi. The 49-month project to process gas from Umm Shaif, an “Our relationship with South offshore field, is a significant undertaking Korea, which has seen sustained involving multiple sites and large tracts of land growth in recent years, has reclamation. This deal followed the first major

14 8 | 12 | 1 APJ | JF petrochemical contract award to a South Upon winning the main contract to erect Korean firm in 2006 when Hyundai was chosen Dubai’s Burj Khalifa tower, the world’s tallest to develop gas re-injection capabilities to building, Samsung became the first South increase production from Abu Dhabi’s Umm Korean enterprise to win such a large deal in Shaif offshore oilfield. Since then, South the UAE. Numerous Korean firms are now Korean contractors have forged a strong bidding for contracts in lucrative property reputation in the UAE which has culminated in developments such as ADNOC’s new head profitable nuclear reactor development. office, the Louvre Abu Dhabi, Zayed National Museum, and the Arzanah Medical Complex.

Bilateral trade has been increasing too. The UAE’s imports from South Korea reached US$2.81 billion in late 2007, up from US$1.77 billion in 2005. Both sides see the contract as strengthening a relationship in which an increasing number of small and medium scale Korean enterprises are investing in the UAE. By the end of 2009, some 43 South Korean firms were operating in Abu Dhabi, and a further nine have registered in the Emirate since January 2010. Despite increasingly close commercial ties, foreign direct investment from South Korea in the UAE remains comparatively small. The Emirates are especially keen to boost Korean investment in order to help diversify their economy and enhance job opportunities for a burgeoning population. In particular, South Korean companies are being targeted by the UAE to invest in the IT, construction, automobile, and energy sectors, and to establish production and assembly units for electronics and automobiles. This campaign features Abu Dhabi highlighting its strategic location close to important markets in the Middle East and Europe, whilst offering competitive costs of production and transport.

For its part, Seoul sees a bilateral relationship founded on a secure and stable supply of oil and gas. Abu Dhabi is presently South Korea’s Source: Tamsin Carlisle, ‘South Korean companies strike it rich in UAE’, The National second-largest supplier of both commodities, (Abu Dhabi), March 2, 2010 whilst the UAE is South Korea’s second largest export market in the Middle East. During his visit to sign the bilateral nuclear cooperation South Korean construction companies have agreement in June 2009, Prime Minister Han also been very active in major propertySeung-soo said he hoped to see bilateral developments in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai. business links deepen beyond energy and

15 8 | 12 | 1 APJ | JF construction with greater investment in South research reactor, the KEPCO bid must be Korean industry from Abu Dhabi. “Frankly, we considered among the favourites. would like to see more of the funds from Abu Dhabi come to Korea to invest. If we find really Indeed, with more than half of the world’s good partners in the private sector, even in the inventory of 436 nuclear reactors scheduled for government sector, then we can make a much retirement by 2030, South Korean companies greater improvement in our relationship.” [18] will likely be competing for a bounty of new contracts in the next decade, especially as Nevertheless, for the medium-term at least, oil China and India are keen to establish around and gas will continue to form the bedrock of 150 new nuclear power plants between them. the relationship. In an era of increasing In fact, KEPCO has been trying to enter the resource nationalism in which hostChinese nuclear reactor market without governments seek greater control of the success since at least 2004, and now natural resources in their territories, foreign recognises that a different approach is firms have been manoeuvring to retainnecessary. This will likely involve Seoul exploration rights in the UAE. Even in the massaging its diplomatic relations with Beijing investment-friendly Emirates, the renewal of whilst KEPCO collaborates with more existing oil and gas concessions has been a established nuclear reactor exporters such as concern. Seoul will be hoping its increasing Westinghouse which already has a presence in participation in the development of the UAE’s the Chinese market. This approach seemingly industrial infrastructure will further cement the reflects Seoul’s realisation that the key to foundation of the bilateral relationship. success in the reactor export market is the ability to offer increasingly customised nuclear Conclusion energy packages to suit individual countries. Developing economies are likewise keen to The UAE power plant deal is the biggest single introduce nuclear power into their energy contract that South Korean firms have ever portfolios, especially since reactors do not emit secured overseas. Seoul claims that the deal greenhouse gases and help reduce dependence makes South Korea the world’s sixth largest on fossil fuels. With demand for nuclear exporter of nuclear reactors by contract value, technology likely to grow rapidly, along with and it hopes to launch itself into the top three the role that high-level lobbying plays in such in the next 20 years with new demand from deals, governments in nuclear power exporters emerging markets where its price-competitive will have to be increasingly proactive in their units are expected to be particularly attractive. nuclear diplomacy, as both Seoul and Paris It will face strong competition from the USA, were with regard to the UAE deal. France and Russia. Nevertheless, in a very competitive bidding process for the UAE’s If South Korean nuclear contractors can nuclear power plants, KEPCO was able to replicate their domestic success overseas, outshine the French and US-Japanese consortia South Korea stands to become one of the both financially and technically. Jordan is also world’s pre-eminent reactor exporters. At looking to embrace nuclear energy, and a present, its domestic build times are some of KEPCO consortium is one of five bidders being the fastest in the world but the country’s considered to construct and operate its first nuclear power industry is unproven on foreign nuclear power plant. Given Seoul’s recent soil. Even though its engineers have forged a success in negotiating the UAE deal, and that convincing technical reputation, project another South Korean consortium has already management has been something of an Achilles signed a contract to build Jordan’s first nuclear heel, which KEPCO is attempting to address by

16 8 | 12 | 1 APJ | JF bringing in foreign engineering consultancies. exporting their natural resources. Nevertheless, South Korean firms have certainly made great strides in the last decade as previously oil and gas developers were reluctant to award them large contracts due to David Adam Stott is an associate professor at a perceived lack of experience. Since then the University of Kitakyushu, Japan and an South Korean firms have established a solid Asia-Pacific Journal associate. His work centers reputation overseas for successfully completing on the political economy of conflict in major projects on time and within budget. Southeast Asia, Japan's relations with the region, and natural resource issues in the Asia- Moreover, China’s relentless rise is likely Pacific. From April 2010 he is on research leave focusing attention in the Middle East and at the University of Adelaide. He wrote this beyond towards East Asia as a whole. Whether article for The Asia-Pacific Journal. this will indeed become a genuine ‘Look East’ economic policy is not yet clear, however. Recommended citation: David Adam Stott, Nonetheless, the UAE-South Korea nuclear deal "South Korea’s Global Nuclear Ambitions," The does indicate that this is a distinct possibility Asia-Pacific Journal, 12-1-10, March 22, 2010. and seems to be already providing new opportunities for South Korean firms. For instance, since the bidding was opened for the UAE’s nuclear plants South Korean firms have See the following articles on related themes: secured numerous other big-ticket contracts in the Emirates. Given that it is still heavily dependent on oil and gas supplies from Abu David Adam Stott, Japan and the United Arab Dhabi, Seoul is therefore hoping that nuclear Emirates – A Nuclear Family? cooperation with the UAE, and potentially other GCC members, will also have a positive spill David Adam Stott, China, Japan and Indonesia’s over effect into stable and secure oil supplies. LNG Ploys Those states and companies interested in Ruediger Frank, Mark Selden and Oh Young- exporting nuclear power probably hope that the jin, The Coming Crisis in Finance and Energy: UAE nuclear power programme will become Korea as a solution for East Asia? the template for other interested governments in the Middle East and further afield. Naturally, Geoffrey Gunn, Southeast Asia’s Looming the UAE has its own interests in developing a Nuclear Power Industry civilian nuclear programme. Nuclear power will increase the sustainability of its oil and gas reserves, simultaneously allowing more of these resources to be exported, thus boosting Notes earnings. The GCC relies exclusively on fossil fuels for electricity generation, and water [1] Christian Oliver, ‘S Korea eyes wider desalination also consumes large qualities of oil nuclear exports’, Financial Times, January 22, and gas. Rising living standards, population 2010. and infrastructure requires ever greater electricity and desalination capacity which [2] International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), many Arab states want nuclear power to meet, ‘Global Uranium Resources to Meet Projected whilst maximising economic growth byDemand’, June 2, 2006.

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[3] World Nuclear Association, ‘Nuclear Power [10] Taylor Luck, ‘Nuclear power could provide in the United Arab Emirates’, June 2009. 60% of Kingdom’s energy needs by 2035’, Jordan Times, July 9, 2009. [4] Global Research figures, part of Kuwait’s Global Investment House. Link. [11] Ibid.

[5] Nevertheless, the UAE repeatedly asked the [12] Christian Oliver, ‘S Korea eyes wider nuclear exports’, Financial Times, January 22, other two consortia to reduce their prices to 2010. make them more competitive with the South Korean bid. This seems to suggest that the UAE [13] World Nuclear News, ‘South Korea seeks was trying to favour the other two bidders, not to boost reactor exports’, January 13, 2010. wholly surprising given the close ties the UAE has had with both France and the United [14] Richard Tanter, Arabella Imhoff and David States. Von Hippel, ‘Nuclear Power, Risk Management and Democratic Accountability in Indonesia’, [6] Taylor Luck, ‘Nuclear power could provide Austral Policy Forum 09-22A, December 7, 60% of Kingdom’s energy needs by 2035’, 2009. Jordan Times, July 9, 2009. [15] Tamsin Carlisle, ‘South Korean companies [7] Kim Tong-hyung, ‘Korea to Build Nuclear strike it rich in UAE’, The National (Abu Dhabi), Research Reactor in Jordan’, Korea Times, March 2, 2010. December 4, 2009. [16] Ibid.

[8] Ibid. [17] Chris Stanton, ‘UAE to sign nuclear pact with S Korea’, The National (Abu Dhabi) June [9] Taylor Luck, ‘Nuclear energy to supply 21, 2009. Jordan desalination plants’, Jordan Times, May 22, 2009

South Korea's Global Nuclear Ambitions 核に関する韓国の世界 的野心

South Korea's Global Nuclear Ambitions 核に関する韓国の世界的野心