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Briefing Residential Leasing November 2016

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Briefing Residential Leasing November 2016 Savills World Research Shanghai Briefing Residential leasing November 2016 Image: Stanford Residences, Jing’An SUMMARY Landlords adjusted rents slightly downwards in Q3/2016, as vacancy rates recorded a slight uptick. One new serviced apartment project serviced apartment sector for the first launched onto the market in Q3/2016, time since Q1/2015. One Sunland Serviced Suites by Lanson “With time to absorb current Place, with 188 units. Villa vacancy rates were up 1.3 ppts to 6.3%, and for the first time this year stock, the market has a chance Vacancy rates increased across the villa rents saw a decrease, down 0.7% board in Q3/2016. The most notable QoQ to RMB152.0 per sq m per month. to stabilise vacancy rates before increase was seen in the serviced receiving several new projects in apartment market, which saw vacancy Serviced apartment rents were rates increase 3.3 percentage points also down slightly 0.6% to RMB229.3 2017.” James Macdonald, Savills Research (ppts) quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to per sq m per month, however still up 12.3%. 4.4% year-on-year (YoY). Strata-title apartment rents were up slightly, 0.5% The strata-title apartment market QoQ to an average of RMB176.1 per sq saw vacancy rates increase 0.7 of a ppt m per month. QoQ to 12.1%, a lower rate than the savills.com.cn/research 01 Briefing |Shanghai residential leasing November 2016 Market overview GRAPH 1 One new serviced apartment project Residential leasing market rental index and vacancy launched in Q3/2016, the 188-unit rate (Q3/2003 – Q3/2016) One Sunland Serviced Suites by Rental index (LHS) Vacancy rate (RHS) Lanson Place. 115 21% As we start to enter the slow season 110 18% towards the end of the year, the 105 15% market took stock of recent rental gains and vacancy rates ticked up, 100 12% checking landlords’ confidence levels. Vacancy rates increased by 95 9% 2.1 ppts QoQ to 10.5%, up 1.4 ppts Q1/2003 = 100 YoY, while rents dropped 0.4% QoQ 90 6% to an average of RMB186.4 per sq m 85 3% per month, still up 3.2% YoY. 80 0% Both serviced apartments and, for Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 the first time this year, villas, saw 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 a decrease in rents in Q3/2016. Source: Savills Research Serviced apartment rents fell 0.6% QoQ to an average of RMB229.3 per sq m per month; however, they still GRAPH 2 remain up 4.4% YoY, while villa rents Residential leasing market rental index, 2004 – fell 0.7% QoQ to RMB152.0 per sq m Q3/2016 per month, up 0.2% YoY. SA Strata Apts Villa Rental overview 115 Strata-title apartments experienced 110 a slight increase in rents in Q3/2016, rising 0.5% to an average of 105 RMB176.1 per sq m per month, up 100 6.5% YoY. This strata-title market performance correlates to a certain 95 extent with the state of the residential Q1/2003 = 100 sales market, with stronger price 90 growth leading landlords to institute rental increments to maintain some 85 semblance of the rental yield. The 80 rental performance is also dependant on the unit and varies on how well it has been maintained. Source: Savills Research GRAPH 3 Vacancy rate overview housing requirements is a natural Residential market vacancy rate, 2004 Vacancy rates increased across the consequence. Corporate housing – Q3/2016 board in Q3/2016. The most notable takes on different forms; it may be increase was seen in the serviced an entire residential tower that has SA Strata Apts Villa apartment market which saw an either been developed or acquired 35% increase of 3.3 ppts QoQ to 12.3%. by the company, it may be a long 30% lease on an entire residential tower, The completion of the Shanghai or it may also be longer-term leases 25% Disney Resort in June this year also or preferential group leases in a 20% saw a number of apartments back specific tower or accommodation service provider. As employees rotate 15% on the market this quarter, due to the repatriation of employees who out of their current placement they 10% were seconded to Shanghai for the are replaced by another member of 5% construction, set-up and launch. staff; the exception to this is more project-based work where seconded 0% As the corporate world in workforces may swell in size during Shanghai continues to grow the project period then diminish Source: Savills Research in size, the rationalisation of once the project is finished. This can 02 Briefing |Shanghai residential leasing November 2016 have a notable impact on certain Upper Riverside was acquired by submarkets and even city-wide Jingrui Holdings from Nan Fung vacancy rates if the scale of the International & Wing Tai Property project is sizeable enough. in July for a total consideration of RMB1.4 billion, an average price of Developers have kept a relatively RMB72,500 per sq m. The project adaptable policy when it comes has a total above-ground GFA of to the residential sector as market approximately 19,300 sq m and is conditions continue to evolve at a located at 1288 Puming Road in rapid rate. Developers who have Pudong. seen a significant sell-down in Contemporary Splendour residential assets in the last year Villas (120,512 sq m), was sold Starway Parkview South Station have slowed the rate of sales either by Shanghai Qiyao Property Hotel by delaying launches or converting Development to Shanghai Industrial projects originally designed for Urban Development for RMB2.35 the sales market into for-lease billion. Shanghai Industrial Urban residential. As the cost of land Development plans to sell the units continues to rise, and new residential off on the strata-title market. development opportunities in the city centre decline, developers and Upper Riverside investors may seek to retain assets for longer going forwards. Market news Located on Baise Road, south of the Contemporary Art Villas and Shanghai Indoor Stadium, a 70% Contemporary Splendour Villas equity stake in this 56-room hotel The equity interest in two villa has been purchased by Pamfleet, a projects in Minhang, Contemporary Hong Kong real estate investment Art Villas (116,308 sq m) and house, from Hong Kong-listed TABLE 1 Strata-title apartment, serviced apartment and villa indicators, Q3/2016 Rent (RMB per sq m per month) Vacancy (%) Q3/2016 QoQ change (%) YoY change (%) Q3/2016 QoQ change (ppts) YoY change (ppts) Serviced apartments 229.3 -0.6 +4.4 12.3 +3.3 -2.1 Strata-title apartments 176.1 +0.5 +6.5 12.1 +0.7 +1.8 Villas 152.0 -0.7 +0.2 6.3 +1.3 -0.1 Overall 186.4 -0.4 +3.2 10.5 +2.1 +1.4 Source: Savills Research TABLE 2 Selected strata-title apartment, serviced apartment and villa transactions, Q3/2016 Unit price Project name Type Area Gross unit size (sq m) Transaction date (RMB per month) Kerry Residence Serviced apartment Jing’an 145 45,000 Jul Green Court Serviced apartment Jinqiao 297 42,800 Aug Elite Residence Serviced apartment Changning 87 20,000 Aug Shimao Riviera Strata-title apartment Lujiazui 237 33,000 Aug Vizcaya Villas Villa Jinqiao 435 53,000 Sep Jinlin Tiandi Strata-title apartment Xintiandi 237 49,000 Sep Source: Savills Research savills.com.cn/research 03 Briefing |Shanghai residential leasing November 2016 Deson Development International for week, whereas traditional serviced Increasing competition from non- RMB57.4 million. Pamfleet plans to apartments are attractive to upper traditional residential landlords and convert the building for use as a co- management looking for a fully- new developments could see a living space, in addition to increasing serviced residence during their reduction in demand for older, less- the number of rooms. employment in the city. well-managed developments. The continuing popularity of purchasing Co-living is a relatively new concept China implements new unified work serviced apartment projects for and part of the shared economy permit pilot scheme sale on the strata-title market could ecosystem that is rapidly emerging. On 9 September 2016, the State assist in the upgrading of projects, There are a number of co-living Administration of Foreign Experts particularly older ones. models. However, they all work off Affairs (SAFEA) announced that the the same premise – a shared living existing Foreign Expert Permit and With first-tier cities starting to space. These projects are a cost- Alien Employment License will be implement population caps, this effective option for many young merged into a single permit. could mean nearby cities with a professionals who are unable to good transportation hub could get a foot onto the property ladder. SAFEA has introduced a points- accommodate the population Co-living projects range from student based, three-tiered classification overflow. Shanghai currently has a housing (Campus Hong Kong), system for foreign workers. permanent population of 24.5 million, alternative holiday accommodations Points will be awarded based on and has been capped at 25 million; (Roam, Bali) and large, self-contained educational background, salary level, nearby Suzhou, accessible by fast condominiums with a community age, time spent working in China train and rumoured to be joining the of over 500 tenants (The Collective, and Chinese language level.
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