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Essays on Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis This thesis is submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Development Studies Essays on Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis Saite Lu December 2019 Sidney Sussex College University of Cambridge Declaration This thesis is the result of my own work and includes nothing which is the outcome of work done in collaboration except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. It is not substantially the same as any that I have submitted, or, is being concurrently submitted for a degree or diploma or other qualification at the University of Cambridge or any other University or similar institution except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. I further state that no substantial part of my thesis has already been submitted, or, is being concurrently submitted for any such degree, diploma or other qualification at the University of Cambridge or any other University or similar institution except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. It does not exceed the prescribed word limit for the relevant Degree Committee. Essays on Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis Saite Lu Abstract This thesis investigates the linkages and the underlying causes of the current episode of global imbalances and of the 2007-09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). It consists of three independent yet interconnected essays. The first essay is a theoretical paper. It sets the scene for the theoretical debates by first describing how the GFC unfolded, its economic consequences, the causes that are identified. It is followed by a critical assessment of three competing theories to explain the linkages between the global imbalances and the GFC: the global savings glut (GSG) hypothesis, the endogenous money (EM) and the global financing glut (GFG) hypotheses. The second essay is an empirical paper, which seeks evidence for each underlying logic chain behind the three theories. It has a particular focus on how credit creation and international capital flows impact on the US housing boom, credit boom, and consequently the consumption boom, before the GFC. A partial equilibrium model is built to simulate the propagation mechanisms based on the empirical findings. The third essay is a modelling chapter. It begins with a discussion of the development of macroeconomic models in general. Following Wynne Godley’s stock-flow consistent (SFC) modelling approach, the focus of this essay is to build a fully estimated empirical SFC model for the UK. The model features detailed financial balance sheets for the banking sector, which can be used to simulate the endogenous credit creation process and the interactions between the real and the financial sector within an economy. The simulations focus on the role of housing finance in generating the economic expansions and contractions as discussed in the second paper. To my beloved grandparents, my first teachers Yixian Shan and Shukai Xia Contents Acknowledgments 7 1. Introduction 9 2. Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis 13 2.1. Introduction . 13 2.2. The 2007-09 Financial Crisis . 14 2.2.1. Timeline . 14 2.2.2. Economic consequences . 20 2.2.3. Causes . 24 2.3. Global imbalances and financial crises . 33 2.3.1. Causes of global imbalance . 35 2.3.2. Global savings glut (GSG) and the GFC . 39 2.3.3. Global imbalances in the past . 50 2.4. Alternative hypothesis . 57 2.4.1. Endogenous money creation . 58 2.4.2. Global financing glut . 63 2.4.3. Discussion on long-term interest rates . 71 2.5. Conclusion . 76 3. The Global Financial Crisis - an empirical analysis 79 3.1. Introduction . 79 3.2. Methodology . 84 3.3. Understanding US household consumption . 92 3.3.1. Literature review . 92 3.3.2. Model and data . 97 3.3.3. Results . 98 3.4. The domestic determinants of the US credit and housing boom . 101 3.4.1. Literature review . 101 i Contents Contents 3.4.2. Model and data . 107 3.4.3. Results . 111 3.5. The cause of the financial crisis: GSG or GFG? . 117 3.5.1. Literature review . 117 3.5.2. Model and data . 122 3.5.3. Results . 126 3.6. A partial equilibrium model - USMOD . 131 3.7. Conclusion . 142 4. A Stock Flow Consistent (SFC) model for the financial crisis 145 4.1. Introduction . 145 4.2. Literature review . 147 4.2.1. The development of macroeconomic models: before and after the GFC . 147 4.2.2. The development of SFC models . 152 4.3. Methodology . 157 4.3.1. SFC matrices . 157 4.3.2. Households . 159 4.3.3. Firms . 162 4.3.4. Government and central bank . 163 4.3.5. Banks . 163 4.3.6. Empirical SFC models . 164 4.4. An Empirical UK Simulation Model - UKSIMM . 168 4.4.1. Sectoral financial balance sheet . 169 4.4.2. GDP components . 179 4.4.3. Prices . 183 4.4.4. Employment and Population . 186 4.4.5. Households . 188 4.4.6. Housing . 191 4.4.7. Corporate sector (COS) . 192 4.4.8. Non-financial corporations (NFCPC) . 194 4.4.9. Financial corporations (FC) and Banks (FC_MO) . 197 4.4.10. Government and central bank . 201 4.4.11. External . 204 4.5. Simulation and future development . 204 ii Contents 4.6. Conclusion . 212 5. Conclusion 215 Bibliography 221 A. Statistical test results 243 B. Notations and List of equations for UKSIMM 247 C. SFC matrices in ONS codes 259 iii List of Figures 2.1. Stages of the GFC . 16 2.2. Interest rate dynamics of major central banks . 18 2.3. Unemployment, House Prices, and Financial Variables . 21 2.4. Real House Price Index (1971=100), selected countries, 1970 - 2018 . 22 2.5. Crises between 1970 and 2011 . 24 2.6. Net loan losses ratio for all US Banks (left) and US households debt to income Ratio (Right) . 25 2.7. House Price Index for Sand States . 26 2.8. US Subprime Mortgages and Securitization . 28 2.9. Gross private investment and total financial assets, % GDP, US . 30 2.10. Shadow Banking . 32 2.11. Current Account Balance, % of World GDP . 36 2.12. Gross Saving and Gross Domestic Investment, % of US GDP . 37 2.13. Demand and supply of loanable funds . 42 2.14. US long-term and short-term interest rates . 43 2.15. US nominal and real 10-year bond yield, 1800-2015 . 45 2.16. Gross capital inflows and outflow and current account balance, US, 2003 - 2018 . 47 2.17. Gross inflows by regions, US, 2003 - 2018 . 48 2.18. Exchange rates between major currencies and US dollar . 49 2.19. World GDP growth, 1980-2018 . 51 2.20. Distribution of world manufacturing . 52 2.21. Money creation through the banking system . 60 2.22. Gross capital flows among major regions, 2002 and 2007 . 66 2.23. The Korean case . 69 2.24. The dynamics of gross investment rate versus net investment rate . 74 2.25. Post-Keynesian theory of interest rates and endogenous money . 75 1 List of Figures List of Figures 3.1. The sectoral net lending/borrowing positions of the US economy, % of GDP, 1960-2018 . 81 3.2. Chains of logic reasoning for empirical analysis . 82 3.3. Method selection for time series data . 87 3.4. Stylised facts, US households sector, 1970-2017 . 93 3.5. Credit to non-financial sector as a percentage of GDP, US, 1952-2018 96 3.6. Housing Equity Withdrawal indexes compared, US, 1991-2008 . 100 3.7. HP filtered real house price, number of mortgages, and household debt to GDP ratio in the US, 1970-2018 . 103 3.8. Household liability for home purchase as a percentage of GDP (left) and credit condition index (right), US, 1970-2018 . 105 3.9. Terms on conventional single-family mortgages, annual national av- erages, 1970-2018 . 106 3.10. Credit standard (left axis) versus mortgage outstanding (right axis), 1970 - 2018 . 117 3.11. Foreign holdings of the US long-term debt securities by countries and regions . 119 3.12. Model structure of USMOD . 132 3.13. US mortgage rate and long-term interest rate, 1970 - 2018 . 134 3.14. Foreign holding of the US Treasury bonds and Corporate bonds, 1985- 2016, US$ millions . 137 3.15. US$100 billion less treasury bonds (in blue) and corporate bonds (in red) versus baseline . 139 3.16. Credit shock, tightening standards on mortgage loan, 2003-2016 . 140 3.17. Monetary policy shock, 100 basis points, 2003-2016 . 141 3.18. Monetary policy shock, 100 basis points, 2003-2016 . 142 4.1. Theoretical and empirical coherence frontier for mainstream macroe- conomic models . 152 4.2. Theoretical and empirical coherence frontier for heterodox macroeco- nomic models . 156 4.3. Shares of each financial assets(up) and liability(down), Household . 171 4.4. Shares of each financial assets(left) and liability(right), NFCPC . 174 4.5. Shares of financial assets (left) and liabilities (right), government sector177 4.6. Financial assets (left) and liabilities (right), central bank . 178 4.7. Co-movement of the export price and import price in the UK . 184 2 List of Figures 4.8. The GVA shares for NFCPC and FC . 193 4.9. Shares of income taxes, net social contributions, and social benefits, 1987-2017 . 196 4.10. The Shares of Financial Assets and Liabilities, Banks . 200 4.11. Share of additional mortgage lending in the total loan liabilities of the banking sector, baseline versus scenario . 205 4.12. Financial cycle, number of mortgage loans per thousand people . 207 4.13. Impacts on the real economy, high mortgage versus baseline . 208 4.14.
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