The Israeli Residential Market
Daniela Paz Erez Paz Group Founder & CEO
This presentation may not be used for any purpose without direct, written permission from Paz Group, Ltd.
G721001 May 9, 2016 consulting 2 Paz Group
■ Paz Group is Israel’s leading real estate consultancy (According to Dun’s 100).
■ With nearly 20 years in the industry, Paz’s expertise spans all real estate sectors, including property
appraisals, construction loan monitoring, urban planning, economic research & business consulting.
■ The company has supported thousands of projects in the private and public sectors, including the
monitoring of tens of thousands of housing units and advised on the most complex and critical national
development projects in Israel.
■ Among Paz’s customers: government ministries, local municipalities, banks, real estate entrepreneurs,
developers and contractors.
consulting 3 Agenda
1. Residential Market Overview
2. Government Policies and Programs within the Housing Sector
3. Construction Potential in Israel
consulting RESIDENTIAL MARKET OVERVIEW
consulting 5 Characteristics of the Residential Units
Existing 2.457 m Anticipated types of residential units residential units over the next decade
Single Single Family units 10 Stories Family units 39% and up Multi-family 29% 28% units 61%
3-6 Stories 4-7 Stories 15% 28%
2.582m Households Potential of 1m Units
consulting Source: Central Bureau of Statistics and data analyses conducted by Paz Group Ltd. 6 Israel’s Housing Shortage: Causes and Triggers
Source: Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, 1995 & 2008: Population Census, 2014: consulting Labour Force & Construction Completion Surveys 7 Housing Construction and Population Growth
Housing Units Housing Starts Project Completions
consulting Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Housing Starts and Completions 8 Housing Prices
NIS (thousands)
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Housing Sales Records and data analyses conducted consulting by Paz Group Ltd. 9 Production Process
Land ownership Private 7%
State 93%
Government goal: 60,000 unit housing starts each year
The Apartment Production Process
Zoning Evacuation Infrastructure Permit Construction
consulting GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND PROGRAMS WITHIN THE HOUSING SECTOR
consulting 11 Residential Units Approved by the Planning Authorities 2015 Nationwide Residential Units 100,000 Units 100,000 99,514 North 10,459
Haifa 11,209 75,368
62,553 63,467 Center 20,251
Tel Aviv 25,420
Jerusalem 11,651 32,462
23,749 24,630 23,409 24,506 South 20,524
North Center * Jerusalem South
Source: Interior Ministry, Annual Report 2014 consulting *2016 Development Targets 12 Free Up Land of IDF Bases Development of 100,000 Units 30,000 Israel Military Industries
17,000 Sde Dov
IDF Bases 12,000 Sirkin 60,000 Units
1,000 “HaKirya” 1,200 "Shalishut”
Defense Industries 20,000 Tel HaShomer 40,000 Units
North 17,000 Tzrifin Center Jerusalem IDF bases and defense industries in South central Israel
consulting Source: Government Resolution 2392. 13 Transportation Infrastructure for Residential Projects Transportation Projects Roads and Public Transport Budget (According to the State Budget) (Million NIS) which support Residential Development
The Metronit (BRT) Extension
Highway 6 Extension
531 + HaSharon Railway
Tel Aviv Light Rail
Jerusalem Light Rail Extension
Ashkelon Beer Sheba Railway
North Center Jerusalem South consulting Source: Ministry of Finance, State Budget 2015 14 Framework Agreements Nationwide 210,000 Units
Municipality Developers Development Infrastructure Costs & Timeline License & Permits Haifa 34,000
Planning Certainty Center 108,000 Cooperation Transparency Jerusalem 8,000 Residents Government Educational and Increased Housing Stock Public Facilities Accelerated Development South 57,000 High Demand Areas
North Center Jerusalem South
consulting Source: Israel Land Authority and Paz Group Ltd. 15 Urban Regeneration Nationwide PINUY BINUY TAMA 38 Potential 810,000 Units RAZE AND REBUILD Expansion and for Urban Potential of 10,000 New Housing Units Demolition of old buildings reinforcement of old Renewal Per Year and new construction of buildings
increased density North 55,000
Haifa 155,000
Center 410,000
Jerusalem 105,000
South 85,000
North Center Jerusalem South consulting Source: Data analyses conducted by Paz Group Ltd. 16 The “Resident“Buyer’s Price Price”” Plan Plan Tenders Nationwide In 2015-2017 all land tenders will be published 30,000 Units subject to the “Buyer’s Price” thus far of 100,000 Government goal
● Can be sold only to non-home owners – by North 4,000 lottery Haifa 7,000 ● Price reduction of at least $50,000 as Center 7,500 compared to market prices.
● Construction according to uniform Jerusalem 5,000 standards. South 5,500
North Center Jerusalem South
consulting Source: Israel Land Authority analyses conducted by Paz Group Ltd. 17 Rental Market International Comparison - Percentage of Rentals
60.0 28.8% 40.0 20.0
0.0
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צ
'
יוון
EU
Italy
ארה
פולין
ליטא
שוויץ
כיה
"
Malta
ספרד
Israel
הולנד
צרפת
Spain
מלטה
Latvia
U.S.A
לטביה
פינלנד
ישראל
דנמרק
רומניה
ב
France
Poland
איסלנד
איטליה גרמניה
Greece
Cyprus
Iceland
נורווגיה
Finland
Estonia Norway
קפריסין
הונגריה
פורטוגל
בולגריה
סלובניה
האיחוד
אסטוניה
סלובקיה
Bulgaria
Hungary
Slovakia
Portugal
Slovenia
Republic Rumania
Denmark
Germany
Lithuania
…
לוקסמבורג
Switzerland
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Czech Czech
Policy Measures to Encourage the Long Term Rental Market
■ Publishing state tenders ■ Purchase of entire buildings ■ New zoning is directed to rental housing ■ Tax benefits and building rights for rental projects ■ Additional 20,000 Student dormitory beds
Note: The above statistics do not include Kibbutz housing or units rented from family members and close friends. consulting Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, National Social Survey, 2013; Survey data processed by Paz Group CONSTRUCTION POTENTIAL IN ISRAEL
consulting 19 Residential Units Under Construction
Residential Units
consulting Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Construction in Israel 20 Residential Market Needs
40,000 Units
27 Months
consulting 21 Summary & Call For Action
Demand for residential units
Shortened Need for construction housing period prices reduction Opportunity for foreign construction Increased companies Government construction support capability and actions
Diverse residential market
consulting Thank you
Paz Group - Real Estate Consulting 2 Ha-Menofim St. P.O Box 12305 Hertzliya Pituach 46728 Israel Tel +972 9 9700800 Fax +972 9 9700801 [email protected] www.pazgroup.co.il
consulting