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Indonesia Auto Indonesia Sector Update 10 September 2019 Consumer Cyclical | Auto & Autoparts Indonesia Auto Neutral (Maintained) Stocks Covered 2 Welcoming Esemka, a New Local Brand Ratings (Buy/Neutral/Sell): 1 / 1 / 0 Last 12m Earnings Neutral Revision Trend: Still NEUTRAL. National auto sales will likely accelerate, driven by a lower Top Pick Target Price BI rate, which should decrease financing costs. However, competition is Astra Otoparts (AUTO IJ) – BUY IDR2,100 likely to remain intense. Indonesia private original car producer Esemka has opened pre-orders for its commercial cars and pick-up truck model, Bima. It also expects to introduce its SUVs, Garuda 1 and Digdaya. President Joko Analysts Widodo recently launched Esemka production plants in Boyolali, Central Java. Seven Esemka outlets are now ready in Central Java, West Java, and Andrey Wijaya South Sulawesi. +6221 2970 7058 [email protected] Now taking pre-orders for the Bima. After 12 years of development, PT Solo Manufaktur Kreasi (SMK) finally began taking pre-orders for two variants of its Esemka pick-up truck, the Bima with 1.2-litre and 1.3-litre Fauzan Luthfi Djamal engines (400 units are already in stock). The initial off-the-road prices range +6221 2783 7062 IDR90-110m (USD6,400-7,900) a unit. The trucks were produced with 60% [email protected] local content. Currently, SMK has seven outlets spread across three provinces – Central Java, West Java, and South Sulawesi – that are ready Esemka’s Bima to serve customers in the areas. On 6 Sep, President Joko Widodo officially launched one of two production plants in Boyolali, Central Java. The plant will assemble vehicles under Indonesia’s private original car brand, Esemka. Bima selling prices estimated to be more attractive than peers’. Initially, Esemka will focus on the Bima, which will carry an off-the-road price of IDR110m (USD7,900). Based on 7M19 data from the Association of Indonesia Automotive Industries (Gaikindo), the wholesale segment for open-cargo pick-up trucks with gross vehicle weight (GVW) of less than five tonnes was dominated by Suzuki, which in turn was only rivalled by Daihatsu in terms of price sensitivity. As a comparison, off-the-road prices for Suzuki’s open-cargo pick-up truck in the New Carry segment were at IDR136m (IDR145m for highest-level variant). Daihatsu’s Gran Max trucks Source: Otopedia are priced between IDR133m and IDR165m. We believe the Bima can easily gain a fair amount of traction in growing initial market share, thanks to the lower offered prices – this will be a significant pulling factor, especially Previous Reports: for lower- to medium-income consumers. Indonesia Auto: Weak July Wholesales Long Road To EV Mass Production To increase usage of local components. SMK strengthened its production 4W Outlook Softens; D/G To NEUTRAL capability by developing two manufacturing plants in Boyolali (Central Java) Cyclicality As Expected; Ramping Up In 2H19 and Cileungsi, Bogor (West Java) – the latter plant is still being developed. Massive New Investments Ahead, OW Boyolali governor Seno Samodro explained that IDR2.1trn (IDR600bn for Lower 5M19 Sales, Expect Better In 2H19; OW the plant on top of 11.4ha of land) of total investment was spent. Total Likely Newcomer, Renault Triber, In July production capacity is around 12,000-18,000 units per year. The management is optimistic about selling 3,500 units of Bima trucks per year. The company has committed to optimising the use of domestic components, cemented by signing of a letter of intent with Automotive Industries Association (PIKKO, for SMEs) in August. Esemka to offer more models. Esemka is expected to launch its SUVs, Garuda 1 and Digdaya, with a 4x2/4x4 gasoline powered engine, with a c.2- litre engine capacity. Autonet Magz has made the observation that the Garuda is a rebadge of China’s Foday Landfort (trading under Guangdong Foday Automobile Co Ltd) which was launched in 2014. TP % Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%) Company Name Rating (IDR) (Downside) Dec-19F Dec-19F Dec-19F Astra Otoparts BUY 2,100 60.3 8.1 0.5 4.4 Astra International NEUTRAL 6,650 4.5 12.2 11.0 10.3 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Indonesia Auto Indonesia Sector Update 10 September 2019 Consumer Cyclical | Auto & Autoparts Established in 2007, SMK facilitated a learning project for several vocational high school students in Solo, Central Java, when President Joko Widodo served as the city’s mayor. Soon after first SUV prototype (Rajawali) passed the emission test in Sep 2012, the company formed a JV with PT Adiperkasa Citra Lestari, named PT Adiperkasa Citra Esemka Hero (ACEH). Through ACEH, Esemka’s production capability was cemented through the development of two manufacturing plants in Boyolali (Central Java) and Cileungsi, Bogor (West Java) – the latter is still being built. Governor of Boyolali Seno Samodro explained that IDR2.1trn (IDR600bn for the plant on top of 11.4 ha land) of total investment was spent. Figure 1: Esemka’s automotive models (2018) Brand Utility Fuel type Certification date Garuda 1 2.0 (4x4) M/T SUV Diesel 5 Sep 2018 Bima 1.3L (4x2) MT Single cabin open cargo Gasoline 12 Apr 2017 Bima 1.0 (4x2) M/T Single cabin open cargo Gasoline 12 Apr 2017 Niaga 1.0 (4x2) M/T Passenger vehicle Gasoline 11 May 2016 Bima 1.8D (4x2) M/T Single cabin open cargo Diesel 17 May 2016 Bima 1.3 (4x2) M/T Single cabin open cargo Gasoline 11 May 2016 Borneo 2.7D (4x2) M/T Passenger minivan Diesel 11 May 2016 Digdaya 2.0 (4x2) M/T Double cabin open cargo Diesel 11 May 2016 Source: Bisnis Indonesia, RHB Figure 2: SMK’s milestones Year Milestones 2008 First prototype developed by PT Solo Manufaktur Kreasi 2012 Esemka’s Rajawali passed the test and received certification 2015 Production output estimated to reach 200 units per year 2016 Construction of the first assembly plant began, with a c.USD155m investment 2017 Digdaya introduced 2018 Eight Esemka products passed the test and certified by BPLJ-SKB 2019 Bima 1.2 and Bima 1.3 ready for preorders Source: Bisnis Indonesia, RHB Figure 3: 7M19 market share – pick-up trucks (Bima’s segment), 4x2 (Digdaya’s segment), 4x4 (Garuda’s segment) models Pick-up (GWV<5 tons) 4x2 (1,501 - 2,500 cc) 4x4 (1,501 - 2,500 cc) 9% 7% 17% 37% 22% 26% 23% 60% 71% 28% Suzuki Daihatsu Mitsubishi Motors Others under 10% Toyota Mitsubishi Others under 10% Mitsubishi BMW Others under 10% Source: Gaikindo, RHB Figure 4: Bima specifications Specifications Bima 1.2L Bima 1.3L Engine size 1.2L E power I4 DOHC 1.3L DOHC 16 V Type Gasoline Gasoline Power output / torque 72 kW / 119 Nm 63 kW / 105 Nm Dimension (l x w x t; mm) 4,560 x 1,645 x 1,890 4,930 x 1,720 x 1,996 Expected price (off the road) IDR90-110m Source: Various media source, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Indonesia Auto Indonesia Sector Update 10 September 2019 Consumer Cyclical | Auto & Autoparts Figure 5: Esemka Bima (left) & Garuda 1 (right) Source: Kompas, Otopedia, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievement to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievement, expressed or implied by such forward-looking Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months statements. Caution should be taken with respect to such statements and recipients Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however of this report should not place undue reliance on any such forward-looking longer-term outlook remains uncertain statements. RHB expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward- Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or 12 months circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels unanticipated events. Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage The use of any website to access this report electronically is done at the recipient’s own risk, and it is the recipient’s sole responsibility to take precautions to ensure that it is free Investment Research Disclaimers from viruses or other items of a destructive nature. This report may also provide the RHB has issued this report for information purposes only. This report is intended for addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. RHB takes no responsibility for the circulation amongst RHB and its affiliates’ clients generally or such persons as may be content contained therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks (including addresses or deemed eligible by RHB to receive this report and does not have regard to the specific hyperlinks to RHB own website material) are provided solely for the recipient’s investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person convenience. The information and the content of the linked site do not in any way form who may receive this report. This report is not intended, and should not under any part of this report. Accessing such website or following such link through the report or circumstances be construed as, an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the RHB website shall be at the recipient’s own risk.
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