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Download Download GEORGETOWN SCIENTIFIC Volume One Edition One RESEARCH JOURNAL February 2021 Policy Brief: Comparison and Recommendations for State COVID-19 Responses of New Mexico and Utah Ariyand Aminpour 63 Georgetown Scientific Research Journal https://doi.org/10.48091/LYQC3557 Policy Brief: Comparison and recommendations for state COVID-19 responses of New Mexico and Utah Ariyand Aminpour Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC E-mail: [email protected] Abstract New Mexico has seen a steady increase in SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) cases, but compared to Utah, New Mexico has kept case numbers low due to important mitigation policies passed by Governor Michelle Grisham. The goals and priorities of each state’s governor contributed to the policies and severity of restrictions in each state.1, 2 Governor Grisham’s mask, mass gathering, and interstate quarantine policies are restrictions that she deems necessary in order to mitigate the spread and save lives.2 Governor Gary Herbert has valued economic recovery as opposed to virus mitigation, which is reflected in his lenient restrictions.2 In the immediate future, Governor Cox, Governor Herbert’s successor as of January, should enact the same mask, mass gathering, and interstate quarantine policies as New Mexico; both states should then reassess the list of states that people need to quarantine from, given that 21 states hit records for 7- day average of COVID-19 cases, as of October 11, in order to get transmission under control.3 Additionally, if COVID-19 transmission is slowed, mass gathering restrictions can be reassessed to allow for larger gatherings but should stay tightly restricted until that point. Keywords: COVID-19, Policies, New Mexico, Utah 1. Background pandemic, leaving much of the leadership to The two states being compared are New pandemic response in the hands of state 4 Mexico and Utah. These two states were chosen governors. Governor Michelle Grisham of New for comparison because they are two adjacent states Mexico has enforced stricter policies, such as a in the U.S. with differing gubernatorial policy statewide mask mandate, in order to slow the 5 responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in New Mexico. gubernatorial responses are important policy Governor Gary Herbert had not enacted the same actions to observe and study, regarding the statewide level policies to slow the spread of the pandemic in the U.S. This is because there has virus, enacting policies that affect only certain 2, 6 been limited and fractured federal response to the locations and counties. Due to the differences 64 Georgetown Scientific Research Journal https://doi.org/10.48091/LYQC3557 between the two policy paths, the states have seen mandatory use of face coverings within state quite different results in terms of COVID-19 buildings.6 This was later paired with a mask mitigation.7 The differences in New Mexico and requirement in K-12 schools.10 Utah’s new Utah’s gubernatorial policies regarding COVID- Governor, Spencer Cox, who has replaced 19 demonstrate the various choices states are Governor Herbert, said in a recent debate that taking; the choice is either maximizing mitigation Utah had yet to enact a statewide mask mandate of the virus through statewide, strict measures or because it was unlikely to be followed and that “it giving more freedoms to citizens, while slowing doesn’t make that much of a difference”.11 Cox’s the virus’s spread to an extent and ensuring the statement directly contradicts the findings in the economy is able to stay open. These two adjacent previous study; these included that the growth rate states are an example of these two policy strategies, of the virus continued to decline after a mask and the comparison of the outcomes of these mandate was enacted and that U.S. states with policies serve to show which plan is more beneficial statewide face covering mandates had a greater to states and the subsequent effects the laws have decline in the growth rate of COVID-19 on lowering daily cases. compared to states that did not sign the same mandates.9 2. Comparison of Epidemiology, Policies, and Another difference in the choices made by the Outbreaks two governors is the capacity restrictions passed Compared to Governor Herbert’s policies, regarding mass gatherings. Suspension of mass Governor Grisham’s COVID-19 policies have gatherings is a mitigation strategy that helps early been far more stringent. New Mexico’s stricter in pandemics when medical countermeasures may policies have translated into comparatively lower not be adequately researched and available for current and overall COVID-19 infections use.12 Governor Grisham has passed a policy on throughout the pandemic.7 Governor Grisham mass gatherings that limits an enclosed space passed a statewide mask mandate on May 15, gathering to 5 people; this law lasted from March 2020, requiring a face covering in public at all 23 to August 28, when it was increased to a limit times except when eating, drinking, exercising, or of 10 people on August 29, 2020.13 Since large advised otherwise by a physician.5 The strict gatherings can facilitate transmission due to the statewide face covering mandate was instituted to lack of social distancing, this order was meant to slow the spread of COVID-19 following evidence limit such gatherings and slow the spread of that the disease can be transmitted through spit COVID-19.12 In May, Governor Herbert passed a and water droplets. Face coverings create a cloth law that limited mass gatherings to 20 individuals, barrier between people, and in the case of a policy that was soon replaced by a reopening plan coughing, sneezing, or spreading water particles in June 2020, prioritizing the reopening of while speaking, the covering would reduce businesses.2 Medical experts and epidemiologists transmission of the virus.8 A study measuring the were cut out of the process of drafting reopening effectiveness of U.S. mask mandates showed a guidelines, which led to policies that allowed significant decline in the growth rate of COVID- indoor gatherings of 3,000 people and outdoor 19 cases after a public face covering mandate was gatherings of 6,000 people.2, 14 Governor Herbert issued, further demonstrating the importance of claimed that the relaxed COVID-19 mitigation Governor Grisham’s decision.9 Conversely, policies on mass gatherings avoided enacting Governor Herbert instituted a policy for overly strict policies on less affected counties in 65 Georgetown Scientific Research Journal https://doi.org/10.48091/LYQC3557 Utah. His decision led to a ranking system in the fact that Utah does not have enough contact which counties were rated by transmission risk tracers to handle the current active case numbers in (low, medium, and high), with the lowest tier the state.19 There are currently 8.32 total contract counties being allowed gatherings of up to 3,000.2 tracers per 100,000 residents in the state of Utah.19 The choice to allow for such large mass gatherings Governor Grisham’s three outlined policies most likely contributed to a rise in cases in Utah, enacted to slow COVID-19 were strict due to the which can be seen in the uptick of cases during the fact that she believed policies requiring quarantine, same time frame. Between June 1 and July 18, daily masks, and mass gathering restrictions limited cases state-wide rose from 197 to 858.7 This is transmission pathways of the virus; she believed because mitigation of a pandemic level virus, like this was essential to save lives and reduce COVID-19, is impossible without stopping mass hospitalizations that were overwhelming state gatherings through policy choices.12 In hospitals.1 comparison, with New Mexico’s more restrictive Governor Herbert chose not to make uniformly policies in place, daily cases state-wide only rose strict and statewide policy decisions, since some from 111 to 280 between June 1 and July 18.7 counties were less affected by the virus.2 However, A third difference in gubernatorial policy is the the virus has not been and cannot be contained by differences in quarantine requirements for air county borders, so uniform policies are needed to travelers to each state. Air travel is a large source of ensure transmission does not continue to flare up importation of COVID-19 to new areas, especially in some parts of the state, with a possibility of through asymptomatic travelers.15 Governor spreading to the rest. Governor Herbert made Grisham passed a quarantine policy, on March 27, policy decisions based on state hospitals’ capacities 2020, which requires air travelers to New Mexico to handle cases, instead of effectiveness of to self-quarantine for a minimum of 14 days.16 The mitigation strategies.2 Moreover, Governor policy was adapted to limit COVID-19 Herbert also drafted policies based on the transmission from individuals arriving from states capabilities of state contact tracers, emphasizing with high transmission rates and daily case counts that the policies were focused on the state’s and prevent unnecessary deaths due to such capacity to respond to outbreaks, rather than spread.1 This mitigation strategy is fueled by CDC mitigating transmission.2 Governor Herbert’s guidance indicating that air travel can lead to policy decisions, such as allowing up to 3,000 COVID-19 infection due to extended time spent individual mass gatherings inside, were aimed at in security lines and terminals, as well as the lack aiding businesses that could not survive under of social distancing on crowded flights.17 lowered capacity limits.2 Since these laws were Conversely, Governor Herbert passed a policy on passed, Utah’s new unemployment claims fell by April 8 dictating that any individuals, 18 years of 78% in early July, in comparison to the peak in age, arriving by air or road must fill out a claims that occurred in April.2 In July 2020, Utah’s declaration of entry form but does not require unemployment rate was at 4.5%, after reaching quarantine of individuals.18 The goal of this policy 10.4% in April.21 In comparison, New Mexico’s was to contact trace individuals coming to Utah unemployment rate reached 12.7% in July 2020.21 who could possibly spread COVID-19.
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