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2021-22 Gubernatorial Overview: Hail to the (State) Chiefs FEBRUARY 19, 2021 VOLUME 5, NO

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2021-22 Gubernatorial Overview: Hail to the (State) Chiefs FEBRUARY 19, 2021 VOLUME 5, NO This issue brought to you by 2021-22 Gubernatorial Overview: Hail to the (State) Chiefs FEBRUARY 19, 2021 VOLUME 5, NO. 4 By Jacob Rubashkin Natural disaster, mass protests, election administration, and the 2022 Governor Ratings omnipresent coronavirus pandemic have cemented governors as an unmissable part of the American landscape. Last year, state chiefs Battleground stepped into the void left by the federal government. This year, the Democratic-held (6) Republican-held (5) opportunity to exercise leadership and political power will likely come again. Kelly (D-Kan.) AZ Open (Ducey, R) With Congress closely divided for the unforeseeable future, the push Mills (D-Maine) DeSantis (R-Fl.) for major policy movement and experimentation could shift to the states Whitmer (D-Mich.) Kemp (R-Ga.) — so it benefits the political parties to hold power in as many states as possible. Sisolak (D-Nev.) MD Open (Hogan, R) There are currently 27 Republican governors compared to 23 PA Open (D-Wolf) Sununu (R-N.H.) Democratic governors. And while there are no perks to holding a Evers (D-Wisc.) “majority” of gubernatorial seats, the more governorships a party holds, the more influence it has on policy and the lives of Americans. Over the next two years, 38 states — including New Jersey and Solid Democratic (10) Solid Republican (15) Virginia this year — will elect a governor. Typically, this large class of Newsom (D-Calif.) Ivey (R-Ala.) governors offers members of Congress and other ambitious politicians an opportunity to climb the political ladder. But with so few term- Polis (D-Colo.) Dunleavy (R-Alaska) limited governors (just nine of 38), those chances are more scarce, at the Lamont (D-Conn.) AR Open (Hutchinson, R) outset. HI Open (Ige, D) Little (R-Idaho) The New Jersey and Virginia races will provide the first substantive look at the post-Trump political landscape (there will be House special Pritzker (D-Ill.) Reynolds (R-Iowa) elections before then, but nothing on the scale of a statewide race). Walz (D-Minn.) Baker (R-Mass.) Each of those states has its own unique politics, and Democrats are Lujan Grisham (D-N.M.) NE Open (Ricketts, R) favored in both races. But their results, plus a potential 2021 California recall election, will give us clues as to whether the Democratic shift Cuomo (D-N.Y.) Noem (R-N.D.) among suburban and college-educated voters will persist even OR Open (Brown, D) DeWine (R-Ohio) with Trump out of office and no longer dominating the news, and if RI Open (Raimondo, D) Stitt (R-Okla.) enthusiasm among Republican voters is dampened without the former president on the ballot. In 2017, Democratic victories in New Jersey and McMaster (R-S.C.) Virginia presaged the party’s suburban path to victory in 2018 (of the 2021 RACES Lee (R-Tenn.) 43 seats Democrats flipped in the midterm, seven were in New Jersey Likely Democratic Abbott (R-Texas) or Virginia). At this early stage of the cycle, we’ve simplified our 2022 ratings into VA Open (Northam, D) Scott (R-Vt.) two categories: Solid and Battleground. Later on, we’ll divide the races Solid Democratic Gordon (R-Wyo.) into our more traditional ratings; Toss-up, Lean, etc. (We have assigned traditional ratings to the two 2021 races, in Virginia and New Jersey, since Murphy (D-N.J.) those elections are more developed.) InsideElections.com INSIDEELECTIONS.COM February 19, 2021 1 ALABAMA. Kay Ivey (R), assumed office 2017, elected 2018 and local Republicans fear the party won’t be able to get its house in (60%). Ivey, who took over for the scandal-plagued Robert Bentley in order to win the governor’s race or the Senate race approaching in 2022. early 2017, will have served for nearly seven years by Election Day, State Treasurer Kimberly Yee is seen as Ducey’s favored successor, but is eligible to seek a second consecutive full term under Alabama’s and is considering running, though another Ducey ally, former chief of constitution. If she runs, her vulnerability would be in a GOP primary, staff Kirk Adams (who is also a former state representative who ran for but no serious challenge has materialized yet. Solid Republican. Congress unsuccessfully in 2012), could also throw his hat in the ring. State Attorney General Mark Brnovich has a better relationship with ALASKA. Mike Dunleavy (R), elected 2018 (51%). The ongoing the right wing of the state party, and may run as well. Former Rep. Matt effort to recall Dunleavy is still tens of thousands of signatures short of Salmon narrowly lost the 2002 gubernatorial election and is someone the 71,252 names it needs to force an up-or-down vote on the first-term who has relationships with both the establishment and insurgent wings Republican. There’s of the state party. Businesswoman Christine Jones placed third in the no deadline on when 2014 GOP gubernatorial primary and then lost a 2016 congressional the organizers can primary by nine votes, self-funding both races with a combined $7.5 submit their petitions, million, and could run again. but it is unclear if On the Democratic side, state Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is viewed they will be able as likely to run. Other potential candidates include Rep. Greg Stanton, a to pass verification former mayor of Phoenix; Kate Gallego, the current mayor of Phoenix; even if they do hit 7th District Rep. Ruben Gallego, Kate Gallego’s ex-husband and a Marine the required number veteran with a national progressive following; state House Minority — experts usually Leader Charlene Fernandez; and former Nogales mayor/chief of staff at recommend turning in Courtesy Office Of Mike Donleavy U.S. Customs and Border Protection Marco Lopez, who currently serves as Mike Dunleavy two or more times the a senior adviser to Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim. Battleground. threshold in order to avoid verification issues. A potential recall would take place 60 to 90 days after signature verification was completed; a ARKANSAS. Open; Asa Hutchinson (R), term-limited. The loss for Dunleavy would mean being replaced by his Lt. Gov. Kevin entrance of Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the former Trump aide, shook Meyer, who is also a Republican. In 2022, the gubernatorial race will be up the race to succeed Hutchinson. Shortly after Sanders, whose father conducted under Alaska’s new elections system, where candidates from was governor in the 1990s, entered the race with an endorsement from all parties run in one primary, and the top four vote-getters progress Trump, Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin announced he would no longer seek the to the general, which is then decided using ranked-choice voting. GOP nomination. Despite having his eye on the state’s top spot for That could create an opportunity for a Democrat or Democrat-backed at least six years, Griffin will instead run for attorney general. That unaffiliated candidate, but it’s unclear who that candidate could be. leaves state Attorney General Lisa Rutledge ($638,000 in the bank Former Anchorage Mayor Ethan Berkowitz (who lost a competitive race on Dec. 31) as Sanders’ biggest competition, but the former White to GOP Rep. Don Young in 2008) resigned over a sex scandal last year, House press secretary is the early favorite. On the Democratic side, and 2014 U.S. House nominee Forrest Dunbar is running to succeed him businessman/2014 lieutenant governor nominee John Burkhalter may this year. If Dunbar wins that April election he would likely vault to the run. Former state Sen. Majority Leader Jim Hendren, nephew of former top of the list of potential 2022 contenders. Solid Republican. Sen. Tim Hutchinson and the outgoing governor, recently left the GOP and has discussed running as an independent. Trump won the state by ARIZONA. Open; Doug Ducey (R), term-limited. Alongside 27 points in November. Solid Republican. Maryland, Arizona is a top Democratic offensive target this cycle. The state GOP has declared war on Gov. Ducey (who, incidentally, is chairing CALIFORNIA. Gavin Newsom (D), elected 2018 (62%). the Republican Governors Association this cycle) as well as much of the Newsom came under fire last year after being photographed at a party’s old guard establishment, including former Sen. Jeff Flake and the fancy restaurant in violation of his own coronavirus guidelines. The McCain family. Once a Republican stronghold, the party has lost both fracas was a boost to the Recall Newsom effort, which now says it has Senate seats and a presidential election in the past two years; national Continued on page 3 Ryan Matsumoto @InsideElections Contributing Analyst [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Bradley Wascher Will Taylor Contributing Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Robert Yoon Stuart Rothenberg [email protected] [email protected] Contributing Reporter & Analyst Senior Editor [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin [email protected] 1140 3rd Street, N.E., Washington, 20002 • 202-546-2822 Copyright 2021, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. 2 February 19, 2021 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 2 collected enough signatures to force a recall vote on the governor — they 2022 Senate Ratings submit their petitions for verification next month. Don’t be tempted BATTLEGROUND into thinking this is 2003 all over again, when Democratic Gov. Gray Democratic-Held (4) Republican-Held (4) Davis was successfully recalled and replaced with Republican Arnold Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) NC Open (Burr, R) Schwarzenegger. Newsom’s approval rating is in the high 40s, while Hassan (D-N.H.) PA Open (Toomey, R) Davis was mired in the mid 20s at the time of his recall.
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