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BANGLADESH Risk Level High (GDACS Red Alert for Bangladesh) 18 May 2020

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BANGLADESH Risk Level High (GDACS Red Alert for Bangladesh) 18 May 2020 Situation and Anticipatory Impact Analysis nd Needs Assessment Working Group Version: 2 Update Cyclone AMPHAN Issued at: 22.00 BST th BANGLADESH Risk Level High (GDACS Red Alert For Bangladesh) 18 May 2020 Anticipation of Impact by administrative region from Forecast 14.2 7.2 2.5 West of Hiron point Million Million Million 09 Districts 66 Upazila Exposed Population Exposed Women Population Exposed Kutcha and Jhupri Houses Projected landfall location Exposed Location (exposed to 90 km/h and above Satkhira 2.4 Meter 12 PM-06 PM Kaliganj upazila 148 km/h 20 May 2020 Dhal Baria Union 7.8 Feet Entering Bangladesh Highest Surge Height Maximum Wind Speed during Time of landfall and high Sarankhola Forest Office high impact time impact INUNDATION FORECAST EXPOSED VULNERABLE POPULATION BREAKDOWN 0.2 1.4 0.78 0.42 Million Million Million Million Tidal Coincide People With Physical Child (0 to 4 age) Elderly Population Pregnant Women Coastal char and offshore islands are expected Impairments to be inundated with 4-5 feet tidal surge ABOUT THE CYCLONE AMPHAN: THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘AMPHAN’ (PRONUNCIATION: UM-PUN) (ECP: 928 HPA) OVER WEST CENTRAL BAY AND ADJOINING AREA MOVED NORTHWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO A SUPER CYCLONE OVER THE SAME AREA (LAT. 14.5°N, LONG. 86.4°E) AND WAS CENTRED AT 06 PM TODAY (18 MAY, 2020) ABOUT 1045 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHATTOGRAM PORT, 990 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COX’S BAZAR PORT, 955 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONGLA PORT AND 940 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAYRA PORT. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND THEN RE-CURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND MAY CROSS BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN KHULNA-CHATTOGRAM DURING LATE NIGHT 19 MAY 2020 TO AFTERNOON / EVENING 20 MAY 2020. THRESHOLD FOR RESPONSE PLAN ACTIVATION Risk Level Trigger/Thresholds Anticipations and Likelihood Anticipated Impact Recommendations Negligible Exposed Population: 14.2 million people exposed to more than Minor 90 km/hr. wind speed. The impact scenarios Danger Stage at Medium meet the HCTT minimum High signal no Displacement: Approximately 1.4 million people of Kutcha and response thresholds Critical (7-SEVEN) Jhupri Houses in Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat and Pirojpur are according to HCTT estimated to be displaced. Contingency Plan 2020 for (62-88 km/hr. Climate-Related Disasters wind speed) House Damage: 0.6 million Kutcha and Jhupri Houses in Satkhira, in the COVID-19 Pandemic -BMD Khulna, Bagerhat and Pirojpur are estimated potentially damaged Context. and destroyed. LESSON FROM PREVIOUS SIMILAR DISASTER: CYCLONE WITH MORE THAN 100 KM/H WIND SPEED SCENARIOS Date of Nature of Phenomenon Landfall Area Wind speed in km/h Impact Level >120km/h and 90-120km/h wind speed and tidal Surge areas 15.11.07 SIDR Khulna-Barisal Coast near Baleshwar river 223 Very Severe Number of Population in Number Jhupri and 25.05.09 AILA West Bengal-Khulna Coast near Sagar Island 100-120 Severe 21.05.16 ROANU Barisal-Chittagong Coast near Patenga 128 Severe Districts Upazila Exposed Areas Katcha Houses Satkhira Khulna 30.05.17 MORA Chittagong-Cox’s Bazar Coast near Kutubdia 146 High 35 6,614,211 1,055,251 Bagerhat, Pirojpur Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh Exposed geographic Region by List of Districts and Upazila (Exposed to >90 km/h wind speed and tidal surge) anticipated Impact Number of People Number of Impact Level by Wind Number of Number of Number of With Physical Children (0-59 Number of Number of Jhupri Division District Upazila/ thana Speed and Tidal Surge Population Household s Female Impairments months) Elderly (age 65+) and Katcha House Risk Level by Wind Number of Khulna Khulna Daulatpur (Khulna) >120km/h 109868 26797 52749 1934 8130 4834 9540 Speed Exposed Upazila Khulna Khulna Dumuria >120km/h 298676 71113 149071 5257 25686 19414 49068 >120km/h wind speed 13 Khulna Khulna Khan Jahan Ali >120km/h 79451 19378 37073 1398 6436 3258 6027 and Tidal Surge Khulna Khulna Koyra >120km/h 189491 45117 96282 3335 17244 10990 40695 90-120km/h wind 22 Khulna Khulna Paikgachha >120km/h 242305 59099 121242 4265 20111 15508 41074 speed and tidal Surge Khulna Khulna Phultala >120km/h 81960 19061 41075 1443 7131 4344 7491 Khulna Satkhira Assasuni >120km/h 284433 66147 142626 4750 25314 16782 49346 60-90 km/h wind 31 Khulna Satkhira Debhata >120km/h 132671 31588 66600 2216 11542 7297 14025 speed and Tidal Surge Khulna Satkhira Kalaroa >120km/h 251876 62969 128250 4206 20654 14105 30099 Total 66 Khulna Satkhira Kaliganj (Satkhira) >120km/h 290925 69268 146897 4858 25601 17746 41214 Khulna Satkhira Satkhira Sadar >120km/h 487779 116138 243697 8146 40973 24389 46455 Projected Inundation Areas Khulna Satkhira Shyamnagar >120km/h 336820 76550 174428 5625 31324 19872 64149 Number of Surge Height Khulna Satkhira Tala >120km/h 317311 77393 159207 5299 25385 19356 40631 Union /areas Barisal Pirojpur Bhandaria 90-120km/h 148422 34517 75985 3132 15139 9202 29684 More than 1.5 meter 10 Barisal Pirojpur Mathbaria 90-120km/h 263307 61234 134234 5556 25804 16852 53274 1 to 1.5 Meter 95 Barisal Pirojpur Nazirpur 90-120km/h 180728 41075 90858 3813 17711 11747 38035 0.5 to 1 Meter 23 Barisal Pirojpur Pirojpur Sadar 90-120km/h 163760 38990 82913 3455 15230 10481 32830 Barisal Pirojpur Zianagar 90-120km/h 77354 17580 39340 1632 8200 4796 15981 The location specific map with Surge height accessible through web map . Khulna Bagerhat Bagerhat Sadar 90-120km/h 255073 62213 127062 4566 20916 15814 40376 Khulna Bagerhat Chitalmari 90-120km/h 132913 28894 66446 2379 13690 8241 26149 Web Map Link: http://arcg.is/1muyvj0 Khulna Bagerhat Fakirhat 90-120km/h 131936 32179 65482 2362 11215 7916 20627 Please click on this symbol from this map for Khulna Bagerhat Kachua (Bagerhat) 90-120km/h 92890 22117 47142 1663 8360 6502 20170 detailed information. Khulna Bagerhat Mollahat 90-120km/h 125318 27243 62883 2243 13033 7143 23456 Khulna Bagerhat Mongla 90-120km/h 130786 32696 62331 2341 9940 7324 28380 Khulna Bagerhat Morrelganj 90-120km/h 282062 72324 144897 5049 27642 19180 65959 Khulna Bagerhat Rampal 90-120km/h 148382 37095 74170 2656 12019 10387 34350 Projected Wind Speed Areas Khulna Bagerhat Sarankhola 90-120km/h 114025 27149 54276 2041 10718 6613 24434 Maximum Wind Khulna Khulna Batiaghata 90-120km/h 167760 39943 83060 2953 14427 11240 32713 Date time Khulna Khulna Dacope 90-120km/h 148829 36300 74284 2619 11162 9823 33178 Speed Khulna Khulna Dighalia 90-120km/h 112939 26265 55074 1988 10277 5195 15365 19 May 2020 12:00PM 241* Khulna Khulna Khalishpur 90-120km/h 161514 39394 75337 2843 12275 6138 10715 Khulna Khulna Khulna Sadar 90-120km/h 219305 53489 106378 3860 16886 8992 14763 20 May 2020 12:00AM 204* Khulna Khulna Rupsa 90-120km/h 175409 40793 87285 3087 15787 8595 23823 20 May 2020 12:00 PM 148** Khulna Khulna Sonadanga 90-120km/h 163898 39023 80754 2885 13112 6392 9014 *at Sea ** at land Khulna Khulna Terokhada 90-120km/h 114037 25917 57010 2007 12658 6158 22159 About the Working Group : The Needs Assessment Working Group (NAWG) is About the report: the platform for government and non government humanitarian agencies 1. The track interpolated from projected forecast of IMD, GDACS and For Live Updates under Humanitarian Coordination Task Team (HCTT). The secretariat of the Windy.com as of 18th may 2010, 6.00 pm BST. Working Group is hosted by CARE Bangladesh under the “Supporting 2. Information from Different Sources (GDACS, IMD, and BMD) are compiled Bangladesh Rapid Needs Assessment (SUBARNA) Project.” and interpolated for this report. No information is generated nor developed by NAWG. Implemented By Fund Managed By Funded By 3. This report is only for internal use of Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh Members preparatory activities not official information of GoB. 4. For Regular Updates: https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/bangladesh/needs- By assessment-working-group Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief Government of Bangladesh Feedback and Contacts: Disclaimer: This material has been funded by UK aid from the UK government, however [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies. Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh.
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