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The Real Climate Threat to Developing Countries — Early, Deep Cuts in Emissions

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The Real Climate Threat to Developing Countries — Early, Deep Cuts in Emissions The Real Climate Threat to Developing Countries — Early, Deep Cuts in Emissions A World Growth Report December 2007 Table of Contents I. Foreword..............................................................1 V. Benefits of Immediate & Substantial Cuts Overstated ................................................13 II. Executive Summary............................................3 VI. Costs of Immediate & Substantial III. Introduction ........................................................7 Mitigation Understated ....................................17 IV. The Development Challenge ..............................9 VII. Long Term Strategies the Solution ..................21 VIII.References ........................................................25 FOREWORD World Growth is committed to support the search for The Agenda 21 consensus on environment and devel- effective global strategies to address climate change. opment adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 and This is one of the major challenges facing the interna- the UNFCCC which was endorsed at the same meet- tional community. ing, both emphasized that the development needs of developing countries should not be subsumed to envi- Much is made of the consequences of failing to take ronmental objectives. action on climate change. The message — that imme- diate action today rather than delay while finding the This is not to suggest there is a trade off between eco- best course of action — has become the refrain in the nomic growth and the environment. In the long run, debate. the only way to guarantee protection for the environ- ment is to ensure we have the prosperity to pay for it. Unfortunately, this position has real consequences, which can be severe. Economies demonstrate each Yet proposals are being put forward which would clearly day through various policies how easy it is to create reduce the capacity of governments to eliminate poverty FOREWORD and perpetuate poverty by slowing economic growth. and generate the wealth necessary to support the envi- ronment. An effective global strategy on climate change Continued economic growth is necessary for the world needs to do both and to enjoy the support of the world’s to meet the Millennium Development Goal of halving biggest emitters of greenhouse gases. poverty by 2015. According to projections by the World Bank, the proportion of population living in extreme This is the third report produced by World Growth poverty in the developing countries is expected to fall to support development of a new consensus for such from 29 percent in 1990 to 12 percent in 2015.1 a strategy. However, as of now, only the East and South Asian regions are projected to meet this target. Without sus- Alan Oxley tained economic growth it will be difficult, if not Chairman impossible, to work towards meeting these goals. World Growth 1 The World Bank, 2007a, Global Monitoring Report 2007 – Millennium Development Goals: Confronting the Challenges of Gender Equality and Fragile States, Washington, DC The Real Climate Threat to Developing Countries — Early, Deep Cuts in Emissions • 1 2 • The Real Climate Threat to Developing Countries — Early, Deep Cuts in Emissions EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As parties to the United Nations Framework • more than 800 million people do not have an ade- Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) gather in quate diet;3 Bali, Indonesia to initiate a fresh effort to develop a • more than 10 million children a year die before global strategy to address climate change, the case for reaching the age of five from preventable or cur- basing that strategy on early, deep cuts in emissions is able diseases;4 being aggressively touted. To reinforce that case, the • over one billion people lack access to potable argument is being made that if such a strategy is not water; and adopted, developing countries like China and India • nearly two billion people lack access to the energy will be those most adversely affected. necessary to meet basic human needs.5 The most substantive case for this argument lies in a The argument put forth by Stern and ohers would all report by Sir Nicholas Stern of the economics of cli- but halt efforts of governments to lift people out of mate change which was commissioned and paid for poverty and to grow economies. Economic growth is by the British government in 2006.2 The Stern Review essential for sustained poverty reduction and recommended that all countries implement immedi- improvements in human development. The countries ate and substantial cuts in their greenhouse gas emis- that have enjoyed rapid economic growth have pulled sions, with the goal being to stabilize the concentra- more people out of poverty faster than those with static EXECUTIVE SUMMARY tion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere so as to or declining rates of growth. This has been most dra- avoid significant changes to the global climate. matically demonstrated in East Asia where extreme poverty fell by over 84 percent between 1981 and The Stern Review has recommended its emissions 2004. In China alone, this transformation was to the cuts be achieved through a combination of taxes benefit of 500 million people.6 and regulatory caps on emissions. It concluded that, over the long run, its cuts would generate a net eco- On one hand, the developing countries recognize nomic benefit for all countries, including develop- that climate change is a serious issue. On the other ing countries. hand, the very strong relationship between green- house gas emissions, energy use and economic The Stern Review is an economic counter-argument growth implies that immediate and substantial cuts to the concern of developing countries that significant in emissions will rapidly translate into reduced reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases will access to energy, lower economic growth and a increase the cost of energy and reduce the capacity to reduced capacity to roll back poverty. pursue high economic growth as the primary strategy to reduce poverty and raise living standards. The stakes are high for developing countries as they consider how best to resolve the apparent conflict. Yet, the conclusions of the Stern Review are seriously flawed. Simply put, they overestimate the economic Exaggerated Benefits from Emissions Cuts benefits of early and deep emissions cuts and signifi- The Stern Review has estimated the economic bene- cantly underestimate the costs associated with such fits from its proposed emissions cuts (in terms of the cuts. If implemented, they would derail efforts to alle- damages that would be averted by doing so over the viate global poverty. next 200 years) is equivalent to at least 5 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) each year, now The Development Challenge and forever. This translates into US$85 per ton of car- 7 At present one billion people in the developing world bon dioxide (CO2). are compelled to live on less than US$1 a day. Such extreme poverty means that: The Stern Review has significantly overestimated the 2 Stern, 2006 3 Ahmed et al, 2007 4 WHO, 2007 5 The World Bank, 2007a 6 The World Bank, 2007a 7 Stern, 2006 The Real Climate Threat to Developing Countries — Early, Deep Cuts in Emissions • 3 benefits of such an approach. This reflects both its The Stern Review’s mitigation cost estimates are well overvaluation of the possible damages of climate above those in the peer-reviewed economic literature. change, as well as its use of an implausibly low dis- The difference reflects biases in the estimation count rate for estimating the present value of such process used by Stern and the omission of certain damages. The discount rate used by Stern has been costs. The latter include the administration and com- widely criticized by economists.8 There is little or no pliance costs of the policy measures, which are likely empirical support for such a discount rate, as it to be substantial, as well as the economic efficiency implies that people would be willing to save virtually losses they would impose. all their income for the benefit of future generations.9 The Review has substantially overestimated the scope The damages identified by the Stern Review and its for technology to reduce the costs of mitigation, and evaluation of them are highly speculative. Its estimate the uncertainty attached to prospective reductions in lies well outside those in the peer-reviewed economic those costs. In part, this reflects the likely adverse literature. For example, Professor William Nordhaus impact of the Stern recommendations on the invest- of Yale, a leading researcher on the economics of cli- ment climate, particularly in the initial period of mate change, has recently re-estimated the benefits at implementation, and therefore on the ability to com- just over US$7 per ton of CO2. This is at the top end of mercialize any of the potential gains made by the the range of estimates in the peer-reviewed litera- development of new technologies. ture.10 Long Term Strategies the Solution Although the Stern Review acknowledges that some Claims that early and deep cuts in emissions are war- adaptation to climate change is inevitable, it signifi- ranted, in order to mitigate the risk of irreversible cantly understates the scope. damage and to avert the risk of greater adverse impact on developing countries, are not supported by the • The Stern Review understates the behavioral technical analysis or economic assessments in the changes in response to climate change. For example, Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental it does not admit the possibility that agronomic Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).12 practices will change — that crops will be planted earlier or later in the year in response to tempera- The IPCC report reminds us that on current settings, ture changes, or that dams will be built to cope levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will con- with precipitation or flooding changes. tinue to increase as a result of previous developments and not peak until between 2100 and 2150. No action • It is biased towards technological pessimism in taken in the short term will mitigate that.
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