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Cuba's Brave New World Cuba's Brave New World DANIEL P. ERIKSON AND PAULJ. WANDER Cuba, once a lonely communist outcast, is now enjoying a wave of international engagement that was virtually inconceivable even a decade ago. Since Rail Castro took over as provisional president of Cuba in July 2006, Havana has hosted over seventy heads of state, including high- profile leaders such as Hu Jintao of China, Dmitry Medvedev of Russia, and Luiz Inicio Lula da Silva of Brazil, in addition to influential officials like former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan and European Union Development Commissioner Louis Michel. In the last year, heads of state from more than twenty Latin American and Caribbean coun- tries have visited Cuba, and many, especially Venezuelan President Hugo Chivez, do so frequently. No other Latin American capital-save Port of Spain, Trinidad (which hosted the Summit of the Americas in April)- has recently attracted such a disproportionate number of high-level visi- tors. Indeed, a casual observer of Cuba's international relations could be forgiven for thinking that global perception and acceptance of the Cuban revolution are at an all time high. This diplomatic sea change is all the more striking given the fact that the Castro regime continues to resolutely resist the kind of democratic opening and economic reforms that much of the world has long encouraged. 'While some regions give the island more attention than others, Cuba's foreign policy is truly global. In Asia, China recently became Cuba's second largest trading partner while African leaders continue to praise Cuban solidarity and medical diplomacy. Last June, Latin American diplomats recently came together to revoke Cuba's suspension from the Organization of American States (OAS), with the tacit agreement of the United States and Canada. The European Union has initiated a new dialogue aimed at Daniel P Erikson is senior associate for U.S. policy and director of Caribbean programs at the Inter-American Dialogue.He is the author ofThe Cuba Wars: Fidel Castro, the United States, and the Next Revolution. Paul. Wander is program assistant at the Dialogue. VOL.33:2 FALL 2009 10 THE FLETCHER FORUM OF WORLD AFFAIRS normal relations with Cuba and the island's relations with Canada remain strong. Therefore, while the United States continues to debate whether to initiate a dialogue with Cuba and how to go about it, the island has been gradually breaking out of its isolation and consolidating ties with other major players on the international stage. This has unfolded during a period when Fidel Castro, Cuba's legendary leader, has been slowly fading from the scene. His younger brother Ratll took power on a provisional basis in July 2006 and then was formally elevated to the presidency in February 2008. During his time at the helm, Radil Castro has ushered in small but important changes in Cuba's foreign policy while benefiting from the growing desire of interna- tional partners to reach out to Cuba at this moment of transition. Even the United States has slightly loosened its sanctions on Cuba, due to moves by the Obama administration to allow U.S. telecommunications companies to do business, and lift restrictions on the ability of Cuban Americans to travel to Cuba or send money to their relatives who still live on the island. Global rapprochement continued following Ratil's decision to shake up much of his foreign policy cabinet in the spring of 2009, which included replacing Foreign Minister Felipe Pdrez Roque and Secretary of the Council of Ministers Carlos Lage Divila, along with several other key ministers who once played central roles in Fidel's regime. Beyond the cabinet shake up, Ratil's foreign policy profile differs from his older brother's in several regards. He is neither as outspoken nor as provocative as Fidel and prefers to delegate much of the responsibility for external affairs to the Council of Ministers. During his time in office, Fidel was a world traveler, but Ratdl held the nation's top office for two years before making a single foreign visit. His first trip abroad included a visit to Venezuela and Brazil, where he attended a Latin American summit in December 2008. In early 2009, Rail crossed the Atlantic Ocean to visit Russia, the first state visit by a Cuban leader to Moscow since the Cold War, as well as to Algeria and Angola. While it is true that Ratdl Castro has not yet faced a major international test as the president of Cuba, he appears to be adeptly overseeing a process of sustaining and deepening Cuba's international relationships. These changes may be indicative of a shift in Cuba's foreign policy away from revolutionary ideology, once the cornerstone of any diplomatic relationship with Cuba, toward a new diplo- matic pragmatism driven by economic cooperation and diversification. Still, Fidel Castro remains an important reference point in charting Cuba's international affairs. The aging leader retains his most important post, that of first secretary of the Cuban Communist Party, but he also VOL.33:2 FALL 2009 CUBA'S BRAVE NEW WORLD 11 makes his voice and opinion heard through editorial pieces published in the pages of state-owned newspapers. Since early 2007, Fidel has written commentaries on a wide range of issues, and despite the fact that many of his lengthy reflections focus on subjects of minor international signifi- cance, his w ords are frequently quoted ................................................................... by international media outlets. When Cuba makes international news, "When Cuba makes Fidel remains Cuba's most oft-quoted internationalnews, Fidel spokesman. In April, Fidel's writing remains Cuba's most served to harness and clarify Radil's oft-quoted spokesman." remarks that Cuba would be willing to talk to the United States about any.......... .... subject, including human rights. "Without a doubt" Raill's remarks were "misinterpreted," Fidel wrote, fueling suspicions that the revolutionary leader was trying to rein in his chosen successor. BARACK OBAMA AND RAUL CASTRO The United States' policy toward Cuba has evolved over time, but one feature has remained constant for more than forty years: the economic embargo imposed on Cuba by President John E Kennedy in 1962. Even when the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought about the end of the Cold War, strong domestic support for the embargo among the Cuban- American community in South Florida led the United States to tighten the sanctions further. Given that his victory in 2000 hinged on the 25 elec- toral votes of Florida, President George W. Bush was especially responsive to the sensibilities of anti-Castro exiles when shaping U.S.-Cuba policy. During his eight-year term, the government sought to isolate the island by cutting back on legal travel to Cuba and limiting diplomatic contact. The main product of the Bush administration's Cuba policy, however, was the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, which issued lengthy reports in 2004 and 2006 on the U.S. strategy for hastening a transition to democracy in Cuba. Twice these reports were used as fodder by the Cuban regime, which was eager to cast the U.S. desire to democratize Cuba as an "imperialist threat." Still, a congressional rule dating to the end of the Clinton presidency allowed all-cash, one-way agricultural sales from the United States to Cuba and transformed the United States into Cuba's fifth largest trading partner by 2008.' While the Obama administration has distanced itself from the specifics of the Bush-era policy toward Cuba, it appears to have accepted VOL. 33:2 FALL 2009 12 THE FLETCHER FORUM OF WORLD AFFAIRS the central premise that the goal of U.S. policy is the democratization of Cuba and the embargo represents a form of leverage to achieve that result. According to the White House, the goal of U.S. policy remains "a Cuba 2 that respects basic human, political, and economic rights of all its citizens." While the tactics of the Bush administration were particularly irksome to the Cuban government, the vast majority of the policy thus far remains unchanged under President Obama. The Cuban regime has not completely rejected President Obama's tactful diplomacy, but it is unlikely to respond .......................... by embracing democratic reforms. Both sides have refused to budge on the ideo- "The vast majority of the logical issues that divide them. policy thus far remains Though the United States and unchanged under President Cuba remain at loggerheads today, Obama." several factors have given rise to the idea of a pending ddtente. New leader- ................................................................... ship in both countries, changing atti- tudes in the Cuban-American community, and increasing international pressure on the United States to adopt a more constructive policy toward Cuba, have all paved the way for a series of small changes in U.S.-Cuba relations. This was evident in the spring of 2009, right before the fifth Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago. Initially, it was the U.S. Congress-not the Obama administration-that set the pace of change. In February, United States Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) issued a report calling for a new direction in U.S.-Cuba policy. Soon after, Representative Jose Serrano (D-NY) added amendments to the 2009 budget bill in Congress to bar the U.S. Treasury Department from funding the enforce- ment of Bush-era limits on Cuban-American family travel and remittances to the island. The administration stayed out of the early back-and-forth on these policy changes, perhaps otherwise occupied or hoping to use an announcement on Cuba policy changes as a springboard to a successful Summit of the Americas in late April.
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