OECD Economic Surveys Spain OVERVIEW www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-spain.htm This Overview is extracted from the Economic Survey of Spain. The Survey is published on the responsibility of the Economic and Development Review Committee (EDRC) of the OECD, which is charged with the examination of the economic situation of member countries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. OECD Economic Surveys: Spain© OECD 2018 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. 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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY │ 3 Executive Summary Spain has made a successful recovery The resilience of public finances should be increased to address medium-term challenges Bringing people back into employment and reducing regional disparities would make growth more inclusive Policies to improve competition and innovation will be key to boosting productivity growth and exports OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: SPAIN 2018 © OECD 2018 │ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 Spain has made a successful recovery Table A: Economic growth is set to moderate The strong recovery continues (Figure A). 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP grew by around 3% in the past three Gross domestic product (GDP) 2.6 2.2 1.9 years, outpacing most other euro area economies. Private consumption 2.4 1.8 1.5 Past structural reforms, robust employment Government consumption 2.1 1.6 1.3 growth, gains in competitiveness and favourable Gross fixed capital formation 6.1 3.8 3.8 external and financial conditions have supported Exports of goods and services 1.6 2.8 4.0 economic activity. Momentum for structural Imports of goods and services 3.5 2.9 4.1 reform should be maintained to improve the Unemployment rate 15.3 13.8 12.5 resilience of the Spanish economy. Current Consumer price index 1.9 1.9 1.7 account surpluses in recent years have contributed to the reduction in Spain's external Source: OECD, Economic Outlook (database). liabilities, which nevertheless remain high. The resilience of public finances should be Figure A. Growth has been robust increased to address medium-term challenges Percentage The public debt to GDP ratio is falling, but is 6 high at 98%. Recent improvements have been Private consumption 4 mostly due to favourable economic conditions. GDP As the recovery continues, the government 2 should stick to medium-term fiscal targets to 0 ensure a durable reduction of public debt. The old-age dependency ratio is set to more -2 than double by 2050. Even with the recent -4 pension reforms, pension replacement rates for those having a full career remain above the -6 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 OECD average (Figure B). The current system creates disincentives to extend working lives Source: OECD, Economic Outlook (database). after the attainment of required contribution StatLink2https://doi.org/10.1787/888933873022 periods and penalises some who continue to work while receiving a pension. Growth is set to continue, though at a slower pace (Table A). Growth, supported by low Figure B. Pension replacement rates remain high interest rates and robust job creation, will Net pension replacement rates: Average earners continue to be broad-based. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 12.5% in 2020, 125 which would still be above that of the euro area 100 and pre-crisis levels. Risks to the outlook remain sizeable. Slowing global trade growth could 75 undermine exports. Turbulence in international markets and political uncertainty could lower 50 private sector confidence, hampering domestic demand. On the other hand, domestic demand 25 could prove more resilient than expected, if the 0 slowdown in the pace of job creation is DEU OECD FRA ESP ITA more moderate. Source: OECD (2017), Pensions at a Glance. StatLink 2 https://doi.org/10.1787/888933873041 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: SPAIN 2018 © OECD 2018 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY │ 5 There is room to further improve the fiscal effective evaluation system is also needed to framework. The introduction of debt, deficit and ensure the quality of training. expenditure rules for regions in 2012 has strengthened the fiscal framework. In practice, Figure C. Unemployment remains high in Spain regions only apply the deficit rule, which tends to % of labour force in each age group, 2017 make their expenditures pro-cyclical and does 60 not help them converge towards their debt Total unemployment 50 targets. Rules should be reinforced by making the Youth unemployment expenditure rule the main tool to achieve 40 sustainability in public finances. Expenditure 30 growth should be set to achieve a regular decrease in the debt ratio towards targets set by 20 the Stability and Growth Pact. 10 Bringing people back into employment and 0 Worst Spain OECD Best reducing regional disparities would make performing performing growth more inclusive region region Source: OECD, Labour and Regional Statistics. Income inequality and poverty rates are high, StatLink 2 https://doi.org/10.1787/888933873060 with regional differences. Given the high degree of decentralisation, regional policies and Inter-regional migration remains low (Figure institutions are key to the effective D). Lack of full portability of social and housing implementation of national labour market and rights across regions, due to prior residency education policies, which can help lower requirements, contributes to low labour mobility. inequalities. More effective coordination and Ensuring full portability of these benefits across sharing of best practices across regions would regions, by providing temporary assistance either help reduce regional disparities. by the region of origin or the central government, More effective use of taxes and transfers should be considered. The structure of would lower inequalities. Taxation remains responsibilities of labour market and social tilted towards labour income, which penalises policies are spread across different levels of growth and employment. There is room to utilise government and regions. Introducing a single less distortive environmental taxes and value- point of contact for employment and social added taxes (VAT). The income and VAT bases services to provide integrated support for are eroded by various exemptions and reduced jobseekers would improve coordination and rates, which are poorly targeted tools in terms of information sharing. reducing income inequality. Higher environmental taxes would also have the Figure D. Regional migration rates are low additional benefit of lowering emissions. Flows across TL3 regions, average 2013-2016, % of total population Unemployment is decreasing, but remains 4.5 high, especially for the youth and the long- 4.0 term unemployed (Figure C). The share of 3.5 active labour market spending on training 3.0 remains low, which can be a barrier to the up- 2.5 skilling of the labour force. While it is important 2.0 1.5 to guarantee the quality of training centres, 1.0 competition is also needed. Regions favour local 0.5 training providers by making requirements, such 0.0 ITA ESP PRT OECD DEU NLD GBR as permanent establishment, mandatory. Removing such barriers could improve the Source : OECD (2018), Regions and Cities at a Glance (database). efficiency of ALMPs and decrease their cost. An StatLink 2 https://doi.org/10.1787/888933873079 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: SPAIN 2018 © OECD 2018 │ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 Regions differ considerably in their ability to Figure F. Multifactor productivity growth develop, attract and retain skilled labour. needs a boost Skills proficiency is among the lowest across 120 OECD countries and should be improved to meet Germany Spain France United States future skill needs. Increasing the adaptability of 115 workers, via lifelong learning policies better targeting the participation of low-qualified 110 adults, is essential. Early school leaving rates are declining, but remain high and display large 105 regional differences (Figure E). Providing individualised support to students at the risk of failing at an early stage has contributed to lower 100 early school leaving rates in some regions. 95 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Figure E. Early school leaving rates are high in Spain Source: OECD, Productivity Database. StatLink2http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933873117 % of the population aged 18-24 with at most lower secondary education and not in further education or training, 2017 Barriers can prevent firms from reaping the 30 benefits of economies of scale and exporting. There are a number of regulations that depend on 25 the size of firms in terms of employment and 20 turnover, which can limit firm post-entry growth, and should be eliminated, as needed. Regional 15 regulatory differences also create barriers to 10 achieving a truly single market and firm growth, contributing to regional productivity differences. 5 Central and regional governments can 0 Worst Spain European Best strengthen the implementation of the Market performing Union performing Unity Law. The principle of national region region effectiveness of the Market Unity Law, which Source: Eurostat. ensures that firms will not be subject to any StatLink 2 https://doi.org/10.1787/888933873098 additional requirements in other regions than their own, could be included in regional legislation. Enhanced cooperation and Policies to improve competition and coordination across different levels of innovation will be key to boosting government is also key.