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UC Davis Recent Work UC Davis Recent Work Title Chinese Rural Vehicles: An Explanatory Analysis of Technology, Economics, Industrial Organization, Energy Use, Emissions, and Policy Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2g52511b Authors Sperling, Dan Lin, Zhenhong Hamilton, Peter Publication Date 2004 eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California CHINESE RURAL VEHICLES: AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMICS, INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION, ENERGY USE, EMISSIONS, AND POLICY UCD-ITS-RR-04-1 January 2004 by Daniel Sperling Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis 95616, USA Tel (530) 752--7434 [email protected] and Zhenhong Lin Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis 95616, USA Tel (530) 752-2570 [email protected] with Peter Hamilton Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis 95616, USA Institute of Transportation Studies One Shields Avenue University of California Davis, California 95616 Tel: 530-752-0247 Fax: 530-752-6572 http://www.its.ucdavis.edu/ email: [email protected] Chinese Rural Vehicles An Exploratory Analysis of Technology, Economics, Industrial Organization, Energy Use, Emissions, and Policy UCD-ITS-RR-04-01 January, 2004 By Daniel Sperling, Zhenhong Lin, and Peter Hamilton Institute of Transportation Studies One Shield Avenue University of California Davis, California 95616 Tel: 530-752-0247 Fax: 530-752-6572 http://www.its.ucdavis.edu.cn Email: [email protected] 1 Abstract Over 3 million Chinese Rural Vehicles (CRVs) were produced in China in 2002, triple that of conventional cars and trucks. Yet these smaller, simpler, indigenous vehicles are virtually unknown outside China. The CRV industry is unusual in that it evolved largely outside the control of government regulation and policy, using local technology and resources. CRVs now consume one fourth of the diesel fuel in China and play an important role in rural development. This report is the first comprehensive assessment (in English or Chinese) of these vehicles and this remarkable industry. We document and analyze vehicle technology, government policy, environmental impacts, market demand, and industry dynamics. We find that increasing government regulation (mostly for emissions and safety) is having profound effects on the industry, with uncertain implications for the growth and globalization of CRV technology. 2 Table of Contents ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................................................................2 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................5 1.1 DEFINING CRVS ........................................................................................................................................ 5 1.2 QUESTION AND MOTIVATION................................................................................................................. 6 1.3 RESEARCH APPROACH AND DATA SOURCES ....................................................................................... 7 2 EVOLUTION OF CRVS ...................................................................................................................................8 2.1 INDIGENOUS EFFORTS ELSEWHERE...................................................................................................... 8 2.2 ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF CRV INDUSTRY.............................................................. 10 2.3 TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT.............................................................................. 13 3 CRV TECHNOLOGY TODAY .....................................................................................................................14 3.1 ENGINE TECHNOLOGY ........................................................................................................................... 14 3.2 3-W CRV.................................................................................................................................................... 15 3.3 4-W CRVS.................................................................................................................................................. 16 4 CRV INDUSTRY TODAY ..............................................................................................................................18 4.1 INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION.................................................................................................................. 18 4.2 PRODUCT QUALITY ................................................................................................................................. 19 4.3 MANUFACTURER PROFILES .................................................................................................................. 20 4.4 DEALERSHIPS , SERVICE AND WARRANTY.......................................................................................... 22 4.5 SAFETY ....................................................................................................................................................... 22 4.6 EXPANDING 4-W CRV SALES – THE CASE OF TRANSFORMED TRACTORS ................................ 23 4.7 GLOBALIZATION OF THE CRV INDUSTRY ......................................................................................... 24 4.8 FUTURE EVOLUTION OF CRV INDUSTRY........................................................................................... 24 5 GOVERNMENTAL POLICY AND REGULATION ...............................................................................27 5.1 SORTING OUT GOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY AND RESPONSIBILITY .......................................... 27 5.2 OFFICIAL CRV DEFINITION.................................................................................................................. 27 5.3 ECONOMIC REGULATION....................................................................................................................... 28 5.4 POLICY EVOLUTION................................................................................................................................ 29 6 EXPLANATIONS FOR SALES DECLINE IN 2000-02 AND MARKET REBOUND IN EARLY 2003 ................................................................................................................................................................32 6.1 EXPLANATIONS FOR SALES DECLINE IN 2000-2002......................................................................... 32 6.2 SALES REBOUND IN EARLY 2003.......................................................................................................... 34 7 CRV USAGE......................................................................................................................................................36 7.1 VEHICLE PURCHASE AND USAGE BEHAVIOR.................................................................................... 36 7.2 COMPETITION WITH OTHER MODES AND VEHICLE TYPES .............................................................. 37 8 ROLE OF CRVS IN RURAL DEVELOPMENT .....................................................................................39 9 NOISE, ENERGY USE AND EMISSIONS ..............................................................................................41 9.1 NOISE.......................................................................................................................................................... 41 9.2 ENERGY USE............................................................................................................................................. 41 9.3 EMISSIONS ................................................................................................................................................. 44 10 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER STUDY ...................................47 3 APPENDICES ..............................................................................................................................................................49 A: CRV USER FIELD RESEARCH TRIP NOTES .................................................................................................. 49 B: VEHICLE SPECIFICATIONS OF CRVS SOLD IN YEAR 2000....................................................................... 79 C: PRICES AND SPECIFICATIONS OF SOME CRV PRODUCTS......................................................................... 80 D: ATTRIBUTES AND PHOTOGRAPHS OF SINGLE-CYLINDER ENGINES FOR CRVS .................................. 85 E: TOP 10 CRV MAKERS IN 2002 ........................................................................................................................ 86 F: EXAMPLES OF “TRANSFORMED TRACTORS ”............................................................................................... 87 G: IN-USE ADMINISTRATION POLICIES AND INDUSTRY STANDARDS FOR CRV ........................................ 91 H: PREDICTION OIL PRODUCTS CONSUMPTION FOR TRANSPORTATION SECTOR................................... 94 I: SALE DISTRIBUTION BY PROVINCE FROM JAN THROUGH OCT 2002....................................................... 95 4 1 Introduction With the Chinese economy expanding 8-10% per year since the late 1970s, the Chinese government has turned to the auto industry to serve growing demand for travel and spur economic growth. It designated the automotive industry as a “pillar” industry of economic
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