USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal #148
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Globalization. Security Crises
“HENRI COANDA” GERMANY “GENERAL M.R. STEFANIK” AIR FORCE ACADEMY ARMED FORCES ACADEMY ROMANIA SLOVAK REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE of SCIENTIFIC PAPER AFASES 2011 Brasov, 26-28 May 2011 GLOBALIZATION. SECURITY CRISES Iustin ACHIRECESEI, Vasile NODIŞ Introduction further reported that, such a base would not have been conceivable before Poland joined This report examines the implications Nato in 1999. of this strategy in recent years; following the In November of 2007 it was reported emergence of a New Cold War, as well as that, Russia threatened to site short-range analyzing the war in Georgia, the attempts and nuclear missiles in a second location on the methods of regime change in Iran, , the European Union's border yesterday if the expansion of he Afghan-Pakistan war theatre, United States refuses to abandon plans to erect and spread of conflict in Central Africa. These a missile defence shield. A senior Russian processes of a New Cold War and major army general said that Iskander missiles could regional wars and conflicts take the world be deployed in Belarus if US proposals to closer to a New World War. place 10 interceptor missiles and a radar in Peace is only be possible if the tools Poland and the Czech Republic go ahead. and engines of empires are dismantled. Putin also threatened to retrain Russia's nuclear arsenal on targets within Europe. Eastern Europe: Forefront of the New Cold However, Washington claims War that the shield is aimed not at Russia but at In 2002, the Guardian reported that, states such as Iran which it accuses of seeking “The US military build-up in the former to develop nuclear weapons that could one day Soviet republics of central Asia is strike the West. -
Report for Congress Received Through the CRS Web
Order Code RL31339 Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Iraq: U.S. Efforts to Change the Regime Updated August 16, 2002 Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress Iraq: U.S. Efforts to Change the Regime Summary In his January 29, 2002 State of the Union message, President Bush characterized Iraq as part of an “axis of evil,” along with Iran and North Korea. The President identified the key threat from Iraq as its development of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and the potential for Iraq to transfer WMD to the terrorist groups it sponsors. In recent statements, the President and other senior officials have said the United States needs to ensure that Saddam Husayn cannot be positioned to pose a major and imminent threat to U.S. national security. The President’s subsequent statements have left observers with the clear implication that the Administration is leaning toward military action to achieve the ouster of Iraq’s President Saddam Husayn and his Ba’th Party regime, although the President says no decision has been made on the means of achieving regime change. Regime change has been official U.S. policy since October 1998. Even before that, U.S. efforts to oust Saddam have been pursued, with varying degrees of intensity, since the end of the Gulf war in 1991. These efforts primarily involved U.S. backing for opposition groups inside and outside Iraq. According to several experts, past efforts to change the regime floundered because of limited U.S. -
2003 Iraq War: Intelligence Or Political Failure?
2003 IRAQ WAR: INTELLIGENCE OR POLITICAL FAILURE? A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of The School of Continuing Studies and of The Graduate School of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Liberal Studies By Dione Brunson, B.A. Georgetown University Washington, D.C. April, 2011 DISCLAIMER THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS ACADEMIC RESEARCH PAPER ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND DO NOT REFLECT THE OFFICIAL POLICIES OR POSITIONS OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, OR THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY. ALL INFORMATION AND SOURCES FOR THIS PAPER WERE DRAWN FROM OPEN SOURCE MATERIALS. ii 2003 IRAQ WAR: INTELLIGENCE OR POLITICAL FAILURE? Dione Brunson, B.A. MALS Mentor: Ralph Nurnberger, Ph.D. ABSTRACT The bold U.S. decision to invade Iraq in 2003 was anchored in intelligence justifications that would later challenge U.S. credibility. Policymakers exhibited unusual bureaucratic and public dependencies on intelligence analysis, so much so that efforts were made to create supporting information. To better understand the amplification of intelligence, the use of data to justify invading Iraq will be explored alongside events leading up to the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. This paper will examine the use of intelligence to invade Iraq as well as broader implications for politicization. It will not examine the justness or ethics of going to war with Iraq but, conclude with the implications of abusing intelligence. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Thank you God for continued wisdom. Thank you Dr. Nurnberger for your patience. iv DEDICATION This work is dedicated to Mom and Dad for their continued support. -
Iraq: Differing Views in the Domestic Policy Debate
Order Code RL31607 Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Iraq: Differing Views in the Domestic Policy Debate October 16, 2002 name redacted, Meaghan Marshall, name redacted Research Associates Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division name redacted Specialist in National Defense Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress Iraq: Differing Views in the Domestic Policy Debate Summary The debate over whether, when, and how to prosecute a major U.S. military intervention in Iraq and depose Saddam Hussein is complex, despite a general consensus in Washington that the world would be much better off if Hussein were not in power. Although most U.S. observers, for a variety of reasons, would prefer some degree of allied or U.N. support for military intervention in Iraq, some observers believe that the United States should act unilaterally even without such multilateral support. Some commentators argue for a stronger, more committed version of the current policy approach toward Iraq and leave war as a decision to reach later, only after exhausting additional means of dealing with Hussein’s regime. A number of key questions are raised in this debate, such as: 1) is war on Iraq linked to the war on terrorism and to the Arab-Israeli dispute; 2) what effect will a war against Iraq have on the war against terrorism; 3) are there unintended consequences of warfare, especially in this region of the world; 4) what is the long- term political and financial commitment likely to accompany regime change and possible democratization in this highly divided, ethnically diverse country; 5) what are the international consequences (e.g., to European allies, Russia, and the world community) of any U.S. -
Iraq and Yemen: the New Iranian Proxies? Visit WEB Receive Newsletter
Opinion Document 58/2018 May 17, 2018 Ana Belén Soage* Iraq and Yemen: The new Iranian proxies? Visit WEB Receive Newsletter Iraq and Yemen: The new Iranian proxies? Abstract: Iran projects its influence in the Middle East through what has come to be known as the Axis of Resistance, which includes the Syrian regime, Hizbullah in Lebanon, and Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Palestinian Territories. Over the last decade, two new forces have often been added to the Iranian-led alliance: the Shiite militias in Iraq and the Yemeni Houthis. The two cases are rather different, however. While there is significant evidence that Iran has invested much in Iraq, its efforts in Yemen appear much more modest. Keywords: Iran; Iraq; Yemen; Hizbullah; Houthis; Hamas; Axis of Resistance; Gulf Cooperation Council; Saudi Arabia. * NOTE: The ideas contained in the Opinion Documents are the responsibility of their authors, without necessarily reflecting the thinking of the IEEE or the Ministry of Defense. Documento de Opinión 58/2018 1 Iraq and Yemen: The new Iranian proxies? Ana Belén Soage Introduction The Islamic Republic of Iran is a revisionist power, dissatisfied with the current regional order in the Middle East and seeking opportunities to alter it. It took advantage of the flawed US response to 9/11 to consolidate its narrative around the theme of the Axis of Resistance, and it continued to intervene in weak states through disgruntled actors with similar anti-Western and anti-Israel rhetoric, whatever their political and religious orientation. The outbreak of the Arab Spring gave a temporary boost to the Iranian narrative but prompted a reaction from the Saudi-led GCC which put the Axis of Resistance on the defensive, notably in Syria. -
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning
ISSUE 1 · 2018 TECHNOLOGY TODAY Highlighting Raytheon’s Engineering & Technology Innovations SPOTLIGHT EYE ON TECHNOLOGY SPECIAL INTEREST Artificial Intelligence Mechanical the invention engine Raytheon receives the 10 millionth and Machine Learning Modular Open Systems U.S. Patent in history at raytheon Architectures Discussing industry shifts toward open standards designs A MESSAGE FROM Welcome to the newly formatted Technology Today magazine. MARK E. While the layout has been updated, the content remains focused on critical Raytheon engineering and technology developments. This edition features Raytheon’s advances in Artificial Intelligence RUSSELL and Machine Learning. Commercial applications of AI and ML — including facial recognition technology for mobile phones and social applications, virtual personal assistants, and mapping service applications that predict traffic congestion Technology Today is published by the Office of — are becoming ubiquitous in today’s society. Furthermore, ML design Engineering, Technology and Mission Assurance. tools provide developers the ability to create and test their own ML-based applications without requiring expertise in the underlying complex VICE PRESIDENT mathematics and computer science. Additionally, in its 2018 National Mark E. Russell Defense Strategy, the United States Department of Defense has recognized the importance of AI and ML as an enabler for maintaining CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER Bill Kiczuk competitive military advantage. MANAGING EDITORS Raytheon understands the importance of these technologies and Tony Pandiscio is applying AI and ML to solutions where they provide benefit to our Tony Curreri customers, such as in areas of predictive equipment maintenance, SENIOR EDITORS language classification of handwriting, and automatic target recognition. Corey Daniels Not only does ML improve Raytheon products, it also can enhance Eve Hofert our business operations and manufacturing efficiencies by identifying DESIGN, PHOTOGRAPHY AND WEB complex patterns in historical data that result in process improvements. -
Introduction Chapter 1
Notes Introduction 1. Thomas S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, 2nd ed. (Chicago: Univer- sity of Chicago Press, 1970). 2. Ralph Pettman, Human Behavior and World Politics: An Introduction to International Relations (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1975); Giandomenico Majone, Evidence, Argument, and Persuasion in the Policy Process (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1989), 275– 76. 3. Bernard Lewis, “The Return of Islam,” Commentary, January 1976; Ofira Seliktar, The Politics of Intelligence and American Wars with Iraq (New York: Palgrave Mac- millan, 2008), 4. 4. Martin Kramer, Ivory Towers on Sand: The Failure of Middle Eastern Studies in Amer- ica (Washington, DC: Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2000). 5. Bernard Lewis, “The Roots of Muslim Rage,” Atlantic Monthly, September, 1990; Samuel P. Huntington, “The Clash of Civilizations,” Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 24– 49; Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996). Chapter 1 1. Quoted in Joshua Muravchik, The Uncertain Crusade: Jimmy Carter and the Dilemma of Human Rights (Lanham, MD: Hamilton Press, 1986), 11– 12, 114– 15, 133, 138– 39; Hedley Donovan, Roosevelt to Reagan: A Reporter’s Encounter with Nine Presidents (New York: Harper & Row, 1985), 165. 2. Charles D. Ameringer, U.S. Foreign Intelligence: The Secret Side of American History (Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1990), 357; Peter Meyer, James Earl Carter: The Man and the Myth (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1978), 18; Michael A. Turner, “Issues in Evaluating U.S. Intelligence,” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 5 (1991): 275– 86. 3. Abram Shulsky, Silent Warfare: Understanding the World’s Intelligence (Washington, DC: Brassey’s [US], 1993), 169; Robert M. -
The Bush Revolution: the Remaking of America's Foreign Policy
The Bush Revolution: The Remaking of America’s Foreign Policy Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay The Brookings Institution April 2003 George W. Bush campaigned for the presidency on the promise of a “humble” foreign policy that would avoid his predecessor’s mistake in “overcommitting our military around the world.”1 During his first seven months as president he focused his attention primarily on domestic affairs. That all changed over the succeeding twenty months. The United States waged wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. U.S. troops went to Georgia, the Philippines, and Yemen to help those governments defeat terrorist groups operating on their soil. Rather than cheering American humility, people and governments around the world denounced American arrogance. Critics complained that the motto of the United States had become oderint dum metuant—Let them hate as long as they fear. September 11 explains why foreign policy became the consuming passion of Bush’s presidency. Once commercial jetliners plowed into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, it is unimaginable that foreign policy wouldn’t have become the overriding priority of any American president. Still, the terrorist attacks by themselves don’t explain why Bush chose to respond as he did. Few Americans and even fewer foreigners thought in the fall of 2001 that attacks organized by Islamic extremists seeking to restore the caliphate would culminate in a war to overthrow the secular tyrant Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Yet the path from the smoking ruins in New York City and Northern Virginia to the battle of Baghdad was not the case of a White House cynically manipulating a historic catastrophe to carry out a pre-planned agenda. -
Terrorism and Global Mobility
U.S. Versus Them The effects of the September 11 attacks on migration policy in the United States and how this has influenced visa issuances to migrants from Muslim-majority countries in particular Anke van Gils Bachelor Thesis Geography, Planning and Environment (GPE) Nijmegen School of I Management Radboud University Nijmegen July 2020 U.S. Versus Them The effects of the September 11 attacks on migration policy in the United States and how this has influenced visa issuances to migrants from Muslim-majority countries in particular Author Anke van Gils Student Number S1003915 Supervisor Prof. Dr. Henk van Houtum Bachelor Thesis Geography, Planning and Environment (GPE) Nijmegen School of Management Radboud University Nijmegen July 2020 II Summary This Bachelor’s thesis focusses on the impacts of the September 11 attacks on visa issuances to migrants from Muslim-majority countries, in comparison to those to migrants from other countries. Since post-9/11 political and media discourse have influenced the general view of Muslims toward a more negative image, one might expect that this has also had a restrictive influence on visa issuances to migrants from Muslim-majority countries. The purpose of this thesis is therefore to find out whether migration policies have indeed become more restrictive for Muslim migrants in particular, and whether we see this impact in a larger decrease in issuances to migrants from this category, as compared to other migrants. To answer this, various methods have been used. First, a general literature framework was established through examining existing literature on how foreign policies are being developed, how these have affected global mobility over the years, and on how framing and securitization processes can affect these policy developments. -
“The Folly of Attacking Iran” Prepared Statement Before the Chicago City Council John J
“The Folly of Attacking Iran” Prepared Statement before the Chicago City Council John J. Mearsheimer May 13, 2008 There is growing evidence that the United States might launch a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The main proponents of an attack are essentially the same individuals and groups who pushed for war against Iraq. They include hard-line supporters of Israel here in America and Israel itself, which is deeply committed to preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. It would be a profound mistake, however, for the United States to start a war with Iran. I base this conclusion on four main arguments. First, striking Iran will not prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. Instead, an American or Israeli attack will give Tehran even more reason to acquire a nuclear arsenal as quickly as possible. Nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent, because no state would attack the homeland of a nuclear-armed country for fear that the victim would retaliate. This simple logic explains why Israel and the United States have sizeable nuclear arsenals and why neither country has any intention of giving them up. Attack Iran and it will surely acquire nuclear weapons to make sure it never happens again. One might argue that striking Iran will eliminate its ability to go nuclear for many years to come. One might even see Israel’s destruction of Iraq’s Osiraq nuclear reactor in 1981 as an instructive precedent. But this line of argument is unconvincing. Iran would quickly reconstitute its nuclear program, and make it difficult, if not impossible, for the United States to find the new facilities and destroy them. -
“Iran and Its Neighbors: Diverging Views on a Strategic Region”
SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Eugene Whitlock (Ed.) “Iran and Its Neighbors: Diverging Views on a Strategic Region” July 2003 Berlin © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2003 All rights reserved SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 3−4 10719 Berlin Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 www.swp-berlin.org [email protected] Table of Contents 5 Foreword – Johannes Reissner 7 Iran and the Middle East 9 The Infernal Triangle: Iran, Israel, and the United States – Samuel W. Lewis 15 Iran’s Relationship to Its Neighbors in Central Asia and the Caucasus 17 Iran’s Role in the South Caucasus and Caspian Region: Diverging Views of the U.S. and Europe – Brenda Shaffer 23 Iran in the Caucasus, Caspian and Central Asia: Lessons for Western Strategy – Edmund Herzig 29 U.S. and Iranian Policy in Afghanistan – Barnett R. Rubin 35 Iran and the Problem of Proliferation 37 Dealing with Iran’s Nuclear Program – Michael Eisenstadt 42 Iran, the Bomb, and the Future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty – Oliver Thränert 53 The Potential for Iran to Provoke Further Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East – Patrick Clawson 57 The Role of Iran and the Region for Global Energy Supply 59 Iran’s Oil and Gas Development and the Effect of U.S. Economic Sanctions – James A. Placke 65 Why Iran Is Key for Europe’s Security of Energy Supply – Friedemann Müller 70 Post-War Iraq and Iran’s Petroleum Sector – Joe Barnes and -
Chapter 5: the United Nations and the Sanctions Against Iraq
5 7KH8QLWHG1DWLRQVDQGWKH6DQFWLRQV $JDLQVW,UDT 5.1 The historical involvement of the international community, the League of Nations and the United Nations (UN) in the wider Middle East region was outlined in Chapter 2 of this report. As discussed in that Chapter, the Middle East became a focus for international rivalry with the demise of the Ottoman (Turkish) Empire, the period of the French and British Mandates, the UN partition plan for Palestine of 1947 and the post-war creation of the State of Israel in 1948. 5.2 Chapter 2 also outlined developments in the wider Arab-Israeli conflict after World War 2, the path of the multilateral tracks of the Oslo peace process from 1991 onwards and the 'shuttle diplomacy' efforts of the major powers, particularly the United States (US), until the present time. The UN in the Middle East 5.3 The UN officially came into existence in October 1945. Australia was one of the original 51 member states. In the post World War 2 environment, one of the earliest UN involvements in the Middle East region involved the former British-mandate Palestine. 5.4 By 1947, Britain had found the Palestine Mandate unworkable and, accordingly, submitted the problem to the UN. The UN General Assembly (UNGA) adopted Resolution 181 in November 1947, which provided for a 'Plan of Partition with Economic Union'. This laid down steps for bringing both Arab and Jewish peoples to independence, with special provisions for Jerusalem. No progress had been made towards implementing the plan before Britain relinquished the Mandate on 14 May 94 1948 and the Jewish leadership proclaimed the State of Israel.