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Download Resource N!"#$%!& C&#'!"( A))())'(%" R(*#$%!& T(+,%#+!& I%-." R(-$/" S(/#() O!"#$% #$& M#'($" R"%)*'!"% ($ # C+#$,($, C-(.#/" A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment Edited by: Roger Griffis Jennifer Howard Oceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment © 2013 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. Reproduction of this report by electronic means for personal and noncommercial purposes ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Printed on recycled, acid-free paper ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Note: This technical input document in its current form does not represent a Federal document ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ or Tribal Government or Non-Governmental entity Suggested Citation: Ĝǰȱǯȱȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǽǯǾǯȱŘŖŗřǯȱOceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate: A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: Island Press. Keywords: Climate change, climate variability, oceans, adaptation, extreme events, ocean ęǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱĴǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱęǰȱȬǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱĴǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ NCA author teams. ȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Commerce. ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĴDZȱ April 17, 2012 ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱOceanography and Marine Biology: An Annual ReviewǰȱŘŖŗřǰȱśŗǰȱŝŗȬŗşŘǯ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ DZ ȱ ĜDZȱǯǯĜȓǯȱřŖŗȬŚŘŝȬŞŗřŚ ȱ DZȱǯ ȓǯȱřŖŗȬŚŘŝȬŞŗŝř ȱȱ DZ Courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. About This Series This report is published as one of a series of technical inputs to the National Climate Assessment (NCA) 2013 report. The NCA is being conducted under the auspices of the ȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- gress every four years on the status of climate change science and impacts. The NCA in- forms the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ and environmentally sound plans for the nation’s future. ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȬȱ£- ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗřǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ developing this technical input. The lead authors for related chapters in the 2013 NCA ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ are using these technical input reports as important source material. By publishing this ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱDZ ȱȱȱęȱ DZȱ ȱȱ Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities Great Plains Regional Technical Input Report Climate Change in the Midwest: A Synthesis Report for the National Climate Assessment Climate Change in the Northeast: A Sourcebook Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities Oceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate Climate of the Southeast United States: Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¡ȱǻ Ǽȱ ȱȱwww.cakex.org/NCAreports. Printed copies are available for ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱwww.islandpress.org/NCAreports. Oceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment LEAD AUTHORS Roger Griffis National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Jennifer Howard National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Washington | Covelo | London Authors SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT Lead Author: Roger Griffis, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Jennifer Howard, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration SECTION 2: CLIMATE-DRIVEN PHYSICAL CHANGES IN MARINE ECOSYSTEMS Lead Author: Jennifer Howard, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Carol Auer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Russ Beard, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Nicholas Bond, University of Washington Tim Boyer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration David Brown, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Kathy Crane, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Scott Cross, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Bob Diaz, Virginia Institute of Marine Science Libby Jewett, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Rick Lumpkin, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration J. Ru Morrison, North East Regional Association of Coastal and Ocean Observing Systems James O’Donnell, University of Connecticut James Overland, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Rost Parsons, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Neal Pettigrew, University of Maine Emily Pidgeon, Conservation International Josie Quintrell, National Federation of Regional Associations for Ocean Observing Systems Jeffrey Runge, University of Maine and Gulf of Maine Research Institute Uwe Send, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) Diane Stanitski, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Yan Xue, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration SECTION 3: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MARINE ORGANISMS Lead Authors: Brian Helmuth, University of South Carolina and Laura Petes, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Eleanora Babij, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Emmett Duffy, Virginia Institute of Marine Science Deborah Fauquier, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Michael Graham, Moss Landing Marine Laboratories Anne Hollowed, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Jennifer Howard, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration David Hutchins, University of Southern California Libby Jewett, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Nancy Knowlton, Smithsonian Institute Trond Kristiansen, Institute of Marine Research Teri Rowles, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Eric Sanford, Bodega Marine Laboratory, University of California at Davis Carol Thornber, University of Rhode Island Cara Wilson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration SECTION 4: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN USES OF THE OCEAN Lead Authors: Amber Himes-Cornell, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Mike Orbach, Duke University Stewart Allen, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Guillermo Auad, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Mary Boatman, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Patricia M. Clay, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Sam Herrick, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Dawn Kotowicz, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Peter Little, Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission Cary Lopez, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Phil Loring, University of Alaska, Fairbanks Paul Niemeier, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Karma Norman, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Lisa Pfeiffer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Mark Plummer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Michael Rust, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Merrill Singer, University of Connecticut Cameron Speirs, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration SECTION 5: INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Lead Authors: Eleanora Babij, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Paul Niemeier, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Brian Hayum, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Amber Himes-Cornell, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Anne Hollowed, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Peter Little, Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission Mike Orbach, Duke University Emily Pidgeon, Conservation International SECTION 6: MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES, ADAPTATIONS, APPROACHES, AND OPPORTUNITIES Lead Authors: Laura Petes, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Roger Griffis, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Jordan Diamond, Environmental Law Institute Bill Fisher, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Ben Halpern, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis Lara Hansen, EcoAdapt Amber Mace, California Ocean Protection Council Katheryn Mengerink, Environmental Law Institute Josie Quintrell, National Federation of Regional Associations for Ocean Observing Systems SECTION 7: SUSTAINING THE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE IMPACTS ON OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES Lead Author: Roger Griffis, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Brian Helmuth, University of South Carolina Jennifer Howard, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Laura Petes, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Acknowledgements This report was made possible by the generous assistance of many experts from ȱ¢ȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ thanks experts from the NOAA Fisheries Science Centers, academia, and other institutions who provided regional assessments, references, and other informa- tion. The team also thanks peer reviewers for their time and comments, which ę¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱĵǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ Waple from the National Climate Assessment are greatly appreciated for their vision, leadership, support, and encouragement throughout the development of this report. Contents Key Terms xix Acronyms xxii Communicating Uncertainty xxv Executive Summary xxvi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Scope and Purpose 2 1.2 Linkages with Other Parts of the National Climate Assessment 5 CHAPTER 2: CLIMATE-DRIVEN PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL CHANGES IN MARINE ECOSYSTEMS 7 Executive Summary 7 Key Findings 8 Key Science Gaps/Knowledge Needs 9 2.1 Introduction 10 2.2 Ocean Temperature and Heat Trapping 10 Ocean sea surface temperature 11 2.3 Loss of Arctic Ice 13 2.4 Salinity 15 2.5 Stratification 16
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