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A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

Edited by:

Roger Griffis

Jennifer Howard

Oceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate

A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment © 2013 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. Reproduction of this report by electronic means for personal and noncommercial purposes ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱǯ

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Printed on recycled, acid-free paper

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Note: This technical input document in its current form does not represent a Federal document ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱ or Tribal Government or Non-Governmental entity

Suggested Citation: Ĝǰȱǯȱȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǽǯǾǯȱŘŖŗřǯȱOceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate: A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: Island Press.

Keywords: Climate change, climate variability, oceans, adaptation, extreme events, ocean ęǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱĴǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱęǰȱȬǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢

ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱĴǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ NCA author teams.

ȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Commerce.

ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĴǱȱ April 17, 2012 ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱOceanography and Marine Biology: An Annual ReviewǰȱŘŖŗřǰȱśŗǰȱŝŗȬŗşŘǯ

ȱ ȱȱȱȱ Ǳ ȱ ĜǱȱǯǯĜȓǯȱřŖŗȬŚŘŝȬŞŗřŚ ȱ Ǳȱǯ ȓǯȱřŖŗȬŚŘŝȬŞŗŝř

ȱȱ Ǳ Courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. About This Series

This report is published as one of a series of technical inputs to the National Climate Assessment (NCA) 2013 report. The NCA is being conducted under the auspices of the ȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- gress every four years on the status of climate change science and impacts. The NCA in- forms the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ and environmentally sound plans for the nation’s future. ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȬȱ£- ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗřǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ developing this technical input. The lead authors for related chapters in the 2013 NCA ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ are using these technical input reports as important source material. By publishing this ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǱ

ȱȱȱęȱ Ǳȱ ȱȱ Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities Great Plains Regional Technical Input Report Climate Change in the Midwest: A Synthesis Report for the National Climate Assessment Climate Change in the Northeast: A Sourcebook Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities Oceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate Climate of the Southeast United States: Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¡ȱǻ Ǽȱ ȱȱwww.cakex.org/NCAreports. Printed copies are available for ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱwww.islandpress.org/NCAreports.

Oceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate

A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

LEAD AUTHORS Roger Griffis National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jennifer Howard National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Washington | Covelo | London

Authors

SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT

Lead Author: Roger Griffis, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jennifer Howard, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

SECTION 2: CLIMATE-DRIVEN PHYSICAL CHANGES IN MARINE ECOSYSTEMS

Lead Author: Jennifer Howard, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Carol Auer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Russ Beard, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Nicholas Bond, University of Washington Tim Boyer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration David Brown, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Kathy Crane, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Scott Cross, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Bob Diaz, Virginia Institute of Marine Science Libby Jewett, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Rick Lumpkin, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration J. Ru Morrison, North East Regional Association of Coastal and Ocean Observing Systems James O’Donnell, University of Connecticut James Overland, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Rost Parsons, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Neal Pettigrew, University of Maine Emily Pidgeon, Conservation International Josie Quintrell, National Federation of Regional Associations for Ocean Observing Systems Jeffrey Runge, University of Maine and Gulf of Maine Research Institute Uwe Send, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) Diane Stanitski, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Yan Xue, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

SECTION 3: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MARINE ORGANISMS

Lead Authors: Brian Helmuth, University of South Carolina and Laura Petes, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Eleanora Babij, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Emmett Duffy, Virginia Institute of Marine Science Deborah Fauquier, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Michael Graham, Moss Landing Marine Laboratories Anne Hollowed, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Jennifer Howard, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration David Hutchins, University of Southern California Libby Jewett, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Nancy Knowlton, Smithsonian Institute Trond Kristiansen, Institute of Marine Research Teri Rowles, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Eric Sanford, Bodega Marine Laboratory, University of California at Davis Carol Thornber, University of Rhode Island Cara Wilson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

SECTION 4: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN USES OF THE OCEAN

Lead Authors: Amber Himes-Cornell, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Mike Orbach, Duke University

Stewart Allen, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Guillermo Auad, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Mary Boatman, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Patricia M. Clay, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Sam Herrick, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Dawn Kotowicz, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Peter Little, Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission Cary Lopez, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Phil Loring, University of Alaska, Fairbanks Paul Niemeier, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Karma Norman, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Lisa Pfeiffer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Mark Plummer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Michael Rust, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Merrill Singer, University of Connecticut Cameron Speirs, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration SECTION 5: INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Lead Authors: Eleanora Babij, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Paul Niemeier, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Brian Hayum, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Amber Himes-Cornell, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Anne Hollowed, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Peter Little, Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission Mike Orbach, Duke University Emily Pidgeon, Conservation International

SECTION 6: MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES, ADAPTATIONS, APPROACHES, AND OPPORTUNITIES

Lead Authors: Laura Petes, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Roger Griffis, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jordan Diamond, Environmental Law Institute Bill Fisher, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Ben Halpern, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis Lara Hansen, EcoAdapt Amber Mace, California Ocean Protection Council Katheryn Mengerink, Environmental Law Institute Josie Quintrell, National Federation of Regional Associations for Ocean Observing Systems

SECTION 7: SUSTAINING THE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE IMPACTS ON OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES

Lead Author: Roger Griffis, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Brian Helmuth, University of South Carolina Jennifer Howard, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Laura Petes, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Acknowledgements

This report was made possible by the generous assistance of many experts from ȱ¢ȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ thanks experts from the NOAA Fisheries Science Centers, academia, and other institutions who provided regional assessments, references, and other information. The team also thanks peer reviewers for their time and comments, which ę¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱĵǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ Waple from the National Climate Assessment are greatly appreciated for their vision, leadership, support, and encouragement throughout the development of this report.

Contents

Key Terms xix Acronyms xxii Communicating Uncertainty xxv Executive Summary xxvi

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Scope and Purpose 2 1.2 Linkages with Other Parts of the National Climate Assessment 5

CHAPTER 2: CLIMATE-DRIVEN PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL CHANGES IN MARINE ECOSYSTEMS 7 Executive Summary 7 Key Findings 8 Key Science Gaps/Knowledge Needs 9 2.1 Introduction 10 2.2 Ocean Temperature and Heat Trapping 10 Ocean sea surface temperature 11 2.3 Loss of Arctic Ice 13 2.4 Salinity 15 2.5 Stratification 16 2.6 Changes in Precipitation and Extreme Weather Events 17 Winds 17 Precipitation 18 Storms 18 2.7 Ocean Circulation 20 California Current 22 Gulf Stream 23 2.8 Climate Regimes 23 North Atlantic Oscillation 24 Pacific Decadal Oscillation 24 El Niño/Southern Oscillation 26 2.9 Carbon Dioxide Absorption by the Oceans 26 2.10 Ocean Acidification 27 2.11 Hypoxia 30

CHAPTER 3: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MARINE ORGANISMS 35 Executive Summary 35 Key Findings 36 Key Science Gaps/Knowledge Needs 37 3.1 Physiological Responses 37 Effects of temperature change 39 Ocean acidification impacts 40 Exposure to toxicants 44 Effects on life history tradeoffs and larval dispersal 44 3.2 Population and Community Responses 45 Primary productivity 45 Shifts in species distribution 48 Marine diseases 51 Invasive species 54 Protected species 55 3.3 Ecosystem Structure and Function 56 Species interactions and trophic relationships 58 Biodiversity 60 3.4 Regime Shifts and Tipping Points 61

CHAPTER 4: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN USES OF THE OCEAN AND OCEAN SERVICES 64 Executive Summary 64 Key Findings 66 4.1 Introduction 67 4.2 Climate Effects on Capture Fisheries 70 Effects on the productivity and location of fish stocks 72 Economic effects on commercial fisheries and fishing-dependent communities 73 Regional effects of climate change on fisheries 75 Fisheries and communities adapting to climate change 85 4.3 Implications of Climate Change for Aquaculture 88 Direct impacts of climate change 88 Indirect impacts of climate change 89 Ocean acidification and aquaculture 90 Social impacts of climate change on aquaculture 90 4.4 Offshore Energy Development 91 Oil and gas 91 Renewable energy (wind, ocean waves, and currents) 96 4.5 Tourism and Recreation 96 4.6 Human Health 99 Health and vulnerability 101 Waterborne and foodborne diseases 102 Harmful algal blooms and climate change 105 Health risks related to climate impacts on marine zoonotic diseases 106 Health risks of extreme weather events 107 Globalized seafood and emerging health risks 107 Acidification and other unknown human health risks 109 4.7 Maritime Security and Transportation 109 4.8 Governance Challenges 109 Fisheries management in the U.S. 110 Offshore energy development 113 Tourism and recreation 113 Human health 113 Strategic planning 114 4.9 Research and Monitoring Gaps 114 Socio-economic impacts for commercial and recreational fisheries 115 Subsistence fisheries 116 Offshore energy development 116 Tourism and recreation 117 Public health 117 4.10 Conclusion 118

CHAPTER 5: INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 119 Executive Summary 119 Key Findings 120 5.1 Implications of Climate Change in International Conventions and Treaties 121 Convention on Migratory Species 121 Convention on Wetlands of International Importance 124 Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora 125 Inter-American Convention for the Protection and Conservation of Sea Turtles 125 Convention on Biological Diversity 126 5.2 Climate Change Considerations in Other International Organizations 127 Agreement for the Conservation of Albatross and Petrels 127 International Whaling Commission 127 Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources 128 North Pacific Marine Science Organization 129 Wider Caribbean Sea Turtle Conservation Network 129 5.3 Climate Change Considerations by Regional Fisheries Management Organizations and Living Marine Resource Conservation Organizations 129 Straddling fish stocks 133 Transboundary fish stocks 134 Highly migratory fish stocks 134 Arctic 135 5.4 Climate Change and Other International Issues 136 Maritime transportation and security 136 Blue carbon 137

CHAPTER 6: OCEAN MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES, ADAPTATION APPROACHES, AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE 140 Executive Summary 140 Key Findings 140 Key Science Gaps/Knowledge Needs 141 6.1 Challenges and Opportunities for Adaptation in Marine Systems 142 6.2 Information, Tools, and Services to Support Ocean Adaptation 143 Importance of long-term observations and monitoring for management 143 Tools and services for supporting ocean management in a changing climate 145 6.3 Opportunities for Integrating Climate Change into U.S. Ocean Policy and Management 147 Incorporating climate change into marine spatial planning and marine protected area design 147 Integrating climate change into fisheries management 149 Efforts to integrate climate considerations into existing legislative and regulatory frameworks 150 6.4 Emerging Frameworks and Actions for Ocean Adaptation 152

CHAPTER 7: SUSTAINING THE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE IMPACTS ON OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES 156 Key Findings 156 7.1 Challenges to Assessing Climate Impacts on Oceans and Marine Resources 157 7.2 Key Steps for Sustained Assessment of Climate Impacts on Oceans and Marine Resources 158

APPENDIX A: STATUS OF AND CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS TO COMMERCIAL, RECREATIONAL, AND SUBSISTENCE FISHERIES IN THE U.S. 160 A.1 Commercial and Recreational Fisheries 160 Commercial fisheries 160 Recreational fisheries 161 A.2 Commercial and Recreational Fishing-dependent Communities 162 A.3 Regional Involvement in Commercial and Recreational Fishing 163 North Pacific 163 West coast 167 Northeast 171 Pacific Islands 175 Southeast 176 A.4 Subsistence Fisheries 178 North Pacific 178 Other subsistence fisheries 179 West coast 180 Northeast 183 Pacific Islands 184 Southeast 186

REFERENCES 187 Key Terms

ȱ– ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ- ęȱǯȱ ȱ– ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ nature. ¢ȱ– The variability among living organisms from all sources including terres- ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǲȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ species. ȱ ȱ – ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ including coastal seagrasses, tidal marshes, and mangroves. Carbon sequestration – A long-term storage plan for carbon dioxide or other forms of ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- lation of greenhouse gases that are released by burning fossil fuels. ȱ– ȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȁȱ ǯȂȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. These ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱřŖȱ¢ǰȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- £ȱǻǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ of the climate system. ȱȱ– ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ a result of natural variability or human activity. ȱ ȱ – Quantitative methods used to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes such ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ climate. Disaster – Severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due ȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ external support for recovery. ¢ȱ – A biological environment consisting of all of the organisms living in a ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯ ¢ȱȱ– ȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱęǲȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱĚǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱ¢ǲȱȱȱȱ

xix xx OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ęǲȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ such as soil formation, photosynthesis, and nutrient cycling. ȱ– ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ǯ ¡ȱȱȱǻǼȱ– ȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ to the exploration and use of marine resources including the production of energy from ȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱ 200 nautical miles from its coast. ¡ȱ– ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱęȱȱ variations. ¡ȱȱ– ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱ Ěǰȱǰȱȱ ęǯ ȱ ȱ – ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse ěǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ¡ǰȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ£ǯ ¢¢ȱ – ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ sustainability. ¢¡ȱ– ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ living in the system. ȱȱ– Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ habitats and bioregions that they invade economically, environmentally, and/or ecologi- ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȦȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱ– ȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ hydrology, productivity, and trophic interactions. ¡ȱȱȱǻǼȱ– The largest long-term average catch or yield that ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ- mental conditions. – ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ climate system. Mitigation includes strategies to reduce greenhouse gas sources and ȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ ęȱ – ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ

Ȃȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻ2) from the atmosphere. ȱ – The ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, ǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĜȱ Key Terms xxi

manner through ensuring the preservation, restoration, or improvement of its essential basic structures and functions. ȱ– The capacity of the ecosystem to absorb disturbances and remain largely unchanged. ȱ– ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱ– ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱǯ ¢ȱ– ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱěǰȱȱ¢ȱȱę¢ǰȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ in response to a change in the mean, range, or variability of temperature, or indirect, ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȬ level rise. ȱ– ȱǰȱǰȱ£ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱěȱ ¢ȱȱ£Ȃȱǯ ęȱ– ȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱěȱȱ such as salinity, oxygenation, density, or temperature form layers that act as barriers to ȱ¡ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱ– ȱȱȱȱȱ¢£ȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱȱ- ment results in a report that often includes an estimation of the amount or abundance of ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȦȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ can maintain itself in the long term. ȱ– ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ǲȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱǲȱęȱǲȱȱ- nological or biological systems. ȱ – ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ Ȭȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱȬȱȱ ǯ ¢ȱ– ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěǯ Acronyms

ACAP – Agreement for the Conservation of Albatross and Petrels ACL – Annual Catch Limits ȱȮȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMSA – Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment BOEM – Bureau of Ocean Energy Management BSAI – Bering Sea–Aleutian Islands ȱȮȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ CBD – Convention on Biological Diversity CCAMLR – Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources CDC – Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDM – Clean Development Mechanisms CFP – Ciguatera Fish Poisoning CI – Conservation International CITES – Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species CMS – Convention on Migratory Species CMSP – Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning

CO2 – Carbon Dioxide ȱȮȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ CREST – Coral Reef Ecosystem Studies CWA – Clean Water Act ¢ ȱȮȱ¢ȱ EBS – Eastern Bering Sea ȱȮȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ EEZ – Exclusive Economic Zone ENSO – El Niño Southern Oscillation ȱȮȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ ȱȮȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȮȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ FMP – Fishery Management Plans ȱȮȱǯǯȱ ȱ¢ȱĜ GEF – Global Environment Facility GET – General Excise Tax ȱȮȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȮȱ ȱȱ xxii Acronyms xxiii

ȱȮȱ ȱȱȱ IAC – Inter-American Convention for the Protection and Conservation of Sea Turtles ȱȮȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȮȱ Ȭ ȱ£ IOC – Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ȱȮȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ IWC – International Whaling Commission LME – Large Marine Ecosystems ȱȮȱȬǰȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱ MPA – Marine Life Protection Act MPA – Marine Protected Area MSY – Maximum Sustainable Yield ȱȮȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱ NAMA – National Appropriate Mitigation Actions NAO – North Atlantic Oscillation ȱȮȱȱȱȱȱ£ NCA – National Climate Assessment ȱȮȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȮȱȬ ȱ£ ȱȮȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱǼ NOAA – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ȱȮȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȮȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȮȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱ NS – National Standards ȱȮȱęȱȱȱ PEIS – Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement ȱȮȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȮȱȱęȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȮȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱ PLA – Participatory Learning Assessment PWS – Prince William Sound REDD – Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation ȱȮȱȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȮȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ȱȮȱ ȱȱȱ SST – Sea Surface Temperature ȱȮȱȱ ȱȱ xxiv OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

TAT – Transient Accommodations Tax ȱȮȱȱȱ ȱȮȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȮȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱȱ£ ȱȮȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȮȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȮȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȮȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȮȱȱȱȱęȱȱ WECAFC – Western Central Atlantic Fishery Commission ȱȮȱȱ ȱ£ ȱȮȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ZSL – Zoological Society of London Communicating Uncertainty

ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȃȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ęȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱęǱ • ęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ǯ

Table 1: Communicating Uncertainty

ęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ

Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, consistent ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯǼǰȱȱ

Moderate evidence (several sources, some consistency, methods vary Moderate and/or documentation limited, etc.), medium consensus

ȱȱǻȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ Fair incomplete, methods emerging, etc.), competing schools of thought

Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent ęǰȱȱȱȦȱȱȱǰȱǯǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡

• ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯ

xxv Executive Summary

ȱȱȱǻǯǯǼȱȱȱȱǲȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ connected to and dependent on oceans and marine resources. Marine ecosystems under ǯǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱǯǯȱǰȱȱȱřǯŚȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ¡ȱȱ£ȱǻǰȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱŗǯŝȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŗȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ- ǰȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱǰȱ communities, and economies across America and internationally every day. ǯǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ Ȃȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- duce dramatic changes in the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of ocean ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ literature provides evidence of the current impacts of increasing atmospheric carbon di- ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱĴȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ- vices and uses, although it is predicted that the vulnerability of ocean-dependent users, communities, and economies increases in a changing climate. In addition, non-climatic ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱęȱ- ǰȱȱȬǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱ- tively, climatic and non-climatic pressures on marine ecosystems are having profound and diverse impacts that are expected to increase in the future. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȂȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ

atmospheric CO2. These impacts are set in motion through a collection of changes in the Ȃȱ¢ȱǻǯǯǰȱǰȱǰȱęǰȱ Ǽǰȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ ęǰȱȱǰȱ¡¢ȱǼǰȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȦǼȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ě¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ greenhouse gases and protect and enhance those natural environments that act as car- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ xxvi Executive Summary xxvii

ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻ Ǽǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ the physical, chemical, and biological components and human uses of marine ecosys- ȱȱǯǯȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ system, the connectivity and movement of species, and the extensive and diverse uses of marine resources and services that occur throughout the Nation. Therefore, climate ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ are also considered in the NCA. ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ report.

Chapter 2: Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems

ŗǯȲȱ Ȃȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - spheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. • ȱŗşśśȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ¡¢ȱŞŚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ change has been absorbed by the oceans, thereby increasing the average temper- ȱȱȱȱŝŖŖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŖǯŘǚȱǲȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ continue. • ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ

ŘǯȲȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ • Arctic ice has been decreasing throughout the early 21th century. The summer of ŘŖŗŘȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱřǯŜȱȱŘǰȱ¡- ¢ȱŗȱȱŘȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱ volume has decreased by 75% over the previous decade. • ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ mean sea level rise of more than 1 meter above present day sea level by 2100. • Reductions in ice may occur more rapidly than previously suggested by coupled ȬȬȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǲȱ more recent modeling predicts that a seasonal ice-free state could occur as early as 2030. xxviii OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

řǯȲȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-

ȱȱȱ2.

• The annual accumulation of atmospheric CO2 has increased. In 2010, the overall

CO2ȱȱ ȱřşȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Industrial Revolution in 1750.

• ȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱśŖȱȱȱ2 than the atmosphere and ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǲȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ

oceans to absorb CO2ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯ • ¢ȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȃȱȱǯȄȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖȱ¢ǯȱ

ŚǯȲȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęǯ • ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱřŖȱǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ events. • ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǯ

• ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱęȱȱ2 is ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯ

śǯȲȱȱȱȦȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ Ȃȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱěȱǼȱȱ¢ǯȱ • ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯ • ȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ • ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ coastal communities because of the increases in coastal populations and infra- ȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯ

ŜǯȲ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȬȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ Ěȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ • ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱ impairing circulation. Executive Summary xxix

• ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ

Chapter 3: Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms

ŗǯȲȱǯǯȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱěȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱĴǰȱ and alterations in species interactions, among others. • ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǰȱ but high-latitude and tropical areas appear to be particularly vulnerable.

ŘǯȲȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȃ ǰȄȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ negatively impacted, or “losers.” • ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȦȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡- ȱ ȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱȱȱ species. • Species such as corals and other calcifying organisms that are exposed to ocean ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ marine ecosystems.

řǯȲȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ non-climatic stressors such as pollution, overharvesting, disease and invasive species. • Climate-related stressors such as changes in temperature can operate as threat ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱǯ • Opportunities exist for ameliorating some of the impacts of climate change through reductions in non-climatic stressors at local-to-regional scales. • ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢- ȱěȱȱȱ ȱǯ

ŚǯȲȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ • Observed responses to ongoing environmental change often vary in magnitude across space and time, suggesting that extrapolations of responses from one location to another may be challenging. • ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱěǰȱ or “tipping points,” that could result in rapid ecosystem change are a particular area of concern. xxx OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Chapter 4: Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean

ŗǯȲęȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ health, tourism, and maritime governance, are already being observed and are predicted to continue into the future. • ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȃǰȄȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȃǰȄȱȱȱ¢ȱ reduce the ability of humans to use the ocean in a given sector, and virtually all ěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǯ • ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę- ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȬȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯ • ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ • ȱȱȬȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱęȱ assets and resources as energy production moves from the traditional oil and ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯ • In the face of climate change, impacts to marine resource distribution, variable ȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǲȱȱ ěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ mixed in others. • The scale and scope of climate impacts such as increased economic access and ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱǼȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ uses of the oceans in the future.

ŘǯȲȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ę¢ȱȱȱȱęǯȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¡- ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǯ Executive Summary xxxi

řǯȲȱ ȃǰȄȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ change. • ȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ Ȭȱ- ǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ food insecurity and malnutrition, rising pollutant-related respiratory problems, and spread of infectious disease.

ŚǯȲ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ insight into societal responses and adaptation options. • ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ economic, and social systems in the future.

Chapter 5: International Implications of Climate Change

ŗǯȲ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ distribution and abundance. • ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ no longer the case. • ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱę¢ǰȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ • ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȬȱȱȱǰȱȬ¢ȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ

ŘǯȲ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ long-term implementation on shared marine resources. • ȱȬȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ • ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ priorities.

řǯȲȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ȱ£ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱǯ • ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱĚ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ changing circumstances, particularly unanticipated, climate-driven changes in ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ xxxii OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

• ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ to be strengthened or enhanced.

Śǯȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ long term. • Changes in available shipping lanes in the Arctic created by a loss of sea ice have generated an expanded geopolitical discussion involving the relationship among politics, territory, and state sovereignty on local, national, and international scales.

śǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- tential to be a transformational tool in the implementation of improved coastal policy and management. • A number of countries including Indonesia, Costa Rica, and Ecuador have iden- ęȱȃȱȄȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ and approaches.

Chapter 6: Ocean Management Challenges, Adaptation Approaches, and Opportunities in a Changing Climate

ŗǯȲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱ • ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱ ȱ adaptation actions have been designed and implemented for marine systems. • ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ • Despite barriers, creative solutions are emerging for advancing adaptation planning and implementation for ocean systems.

ŘǯȲȬȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ • Long-term observations and monitoring of ocean physical, ecological, social, and economic systems provide essential information on past and current trends as ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ • Ȭ¢ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ communities of practice, and inform and support decisions to enhance ocean resilience in the face of climate change.

řǯȲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱěǯ Executive Summary xxxiii

• ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ience and adaptive capacity. • ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱǯ

ŚǯȲȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȬȱȱ ȱ ȱǲȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱǯ

Chapter 7: Sustaining the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Oceans and Marine Resources

ŗǯȲȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱ adaptation to a changing climate. ŘǯȲȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ marine ecosystems. řǯȲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ advance assessment of impacts of climate change on oceans and marine resources. • Identify and collect information on a set of core indicators of the condition of ȱ¢ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ- ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ • ȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱ¡ȱȬȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢- ical, chemical, biological, and social/economic impacts of climate change on oceans and marine resources. • Increase capacity and coordination of existing observing systems to collect, ¢£ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȦȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ǯ • ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ components and human uses. • ȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ climate change on marine ecosystems. • Build and support mechanisms for sustained coordination and communication ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- mation needs related to impacts, vulnerabilities, mitigation, and adaptation of ocean ecosystems in a changing climate are being met. xxxiv OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

• ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱ in a changing climate. • ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- national partners for assessing and addressing impacts of climate change and ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯǯ Chapter 1

Introduction

ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱ- port an incredible diversity of species and habitats (NMFS, 2009a,b) and provide many ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ- ǰȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱěȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȂȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱǯǯȱǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ ȱȬȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱ ǞŗřŞȱȱȱŗǯŘȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ǯǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȂȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ŗŞȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ řŜȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯ ȱ¢ȱȱǯǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖřȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻŖȬřȱȱȱ¡ȱŖȬşȱ- ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǼȱȱȱ ǻřȬŘŖŖȱȱǼȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřǯŚȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ¡ȱȱ£ȱ ǻǼȱǻȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱŗǯŝȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱŗŗȱ- ferent large marine ecosystems (LMEs) (Figure 1-1). ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱŗȬŘǼȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱęȱ- ǰȱȱȬǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱ- lectively, climatic and non-climatic pressures are having profound and diverse impacts on marine ecosystems (Figure 1-2b). These impacts are expected to increase in the future ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ levels. ȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱ

as human uses of these systems. Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 is one of the most se- ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ

CO2 in marine ecosystems are increasing ocean temperatures (IPCC, 2007a) and acidity (Doney et al., 2009). Increasing temperatures produce a variety of other ocean changes ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱęǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱȱ

1 2 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Alaska Ecosystem Complex

Great Lakes

Northeast Shelf Figure 1-1 Large Southeast marine ecosystems California Current Shelf within the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Exclusive Economic Zone (NOAA Caribbean Sea Fisheries 2009c). Pacific Islands Ecosystem Complex

Legend

noaa_eco_outer_eez

US EEZ

States

[email protected] 06/09

ȱĴȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱ et al., 2012). These and other changes in ocean physical and chemical conditions, such as changes in oxygen concentrations and nutrient availability, are impacting a variety of ocean biological features including primary production, phenology, species distribu- ǰȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŗȬřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ

atmospheric CO2. Interactions of climate impacts vary by region and complexity. Figure ŗȬŚȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ

1.1 Scope and Purpose ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¢£ȱȱ ȱȬȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽǯȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşşŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŖȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯǯȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ emphasis on this topic for the 2013 NCA. Introduction 3

1 2 3 4 5 6 13 0.6 8.2 900 150 a ) 10 ) 2 12 J 800 22

) 0.4 km

100 6 8.1 11 5 700 0.2 50 p 8.0 CO 10 600 2 ( μ atm) 0 0 0.0 9 500 7.9 –50 –0.2 8 –5 400 –100 Global mean sea level (mm) 7.8 Sea-surface temperature (°C –0.4

7 –700-m ocean heat content (10 300 Mean ocean-surface pH (total scale) 0 –150 Summer Arctic sea-ice area (10 –10 6 –0.6 7.7 200 1000 1800 1900 2000 2100 Year

World population U.S. coastal population 2.0 10 Anthropogenic nitrogen !xation North American marine b biological invasions 9 Global marine wild !sh harvest Cumulative seagrass loss 8 1.5 Cumulative Caribbean coral cover loss 7 Cumulative mangrove loss Relative change Cumulative global hypoxic zones 6 Global mariculture production 1.0 5

4 Relative change 3 0.5 2

0.0 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year

Figure 1-2 (a) Changes in (1) global mean sea level (data starting in 1800 with an upward trend; Jevrejeva et al., 2008), (2) summer Arctic sea-ice area (data starting just prior to 1900 with a downward trend; Walsh and Chapman, 2001),(3) 0-700-m ocean heat content (data starting around the mid 1900's with an upward trend; Levitus et al., 2009),(4) sea-surface temperature (data starting around the mid- 1800's with a general upward trend; Rayner et al., 2006), (5) mean ocean surface pH (data starting around 1000 with an downward trend into the future; NRC, 2010b), and (6) pCO2 (data starting around 1000 with an upward trend tinto the future; Petit et al., 1999). Shaded region denotes projected changes st in pH and pCO2 consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 21 -century A2 emissions scenario with rapid population growth. (b) Time series (as identified in figure key): trends in world population (solid line, data starting in the 1800s with an upward trend; Goldewijk, 2005), U.S. coastal population (solid line, data staring in the 1950s with a general upward trend; Wilson and Fischetti, 2010), anthropogenic nitrogen fixation (solid line, data starting in the late 1850s with a general upward trend; Davidson, 2009), North American marine biological invasions (solid line, data starting in the 1800s with a general upward trend; Ruiz et al., 2000), global marine wild fish harvest (solid line, data starting in the 1950s with a general upward trend; Food Agricultural Organization [FAO] U.N., 2010), cumulative seagrass loss (dotted line, data starting around the mid 1920's with a general upward trend and a sharp increase after the mid 1970s; Waycott et al., 2009), cumulative Caribbean coral cover loss (dotted line, data starting around the mid 1970s with a general upward trend; Gardner et al., 2003), cumulative mangrove loss (dotted line, data starting around the mid 1920's with a general upward trend and a sharp increase after the mid 1970s; FAO U.N., 2007), cumulative global hypoxic zones (dotted line, data starting in the early 1900's with a general upward trend; Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008), and global mariculture production (dotted line, data starting around 1950 with an upward trend; FAO U.N., 2010). All time series in (b) are normalized to 1980 levels. Trends with <1.5-fold variation are depicted as solid lines (left axis), and trends with >1.5-fold variation are depicted as dotted lines (right axis) (Source: Doney et al., 2012). 4 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Figure 1-3 Imapcts of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems. This table is intended to provide il- lustrative examples of how climate change is currently affecting U.S. ecosystems, the species they support, and the resulting impacts on ocean services. It is not intended to be comprehensive or to provide any ranking or prioritization. Black arrows represent impacts driven by climate change either directly or indirectly. Gray arrows represent countering effects of various adaptation efforts. n indicates where climate change is predicted to increase the incidence or magnitude of that attribute and ' indicates attributes where the impact of climate change on that attribute is variable.

ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱǱ • ȱŘȬŚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ocean physical and chemical conditions (Section 2), biological systems (Section řǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŚǼȱȱȱȱǯȱ • Section 5 assesses the international implications of these climate impacts ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯǯȱǯȱ • ȱŜȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱǯ Introduction 5

• ȱŝȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ

1.2 Linkages with Other Parts of the National Climate Assessment ǯȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǱ • ȱȱ ǰȱȱĴǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱ • ěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ energy; • Connectivity and movement of species; and • Extensive and diverse uses of marine resources and services that occur throughout the Nation. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ implications for, many regions and sectors across the nation that are also considered in ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǯǯȱȱ¢- ȱĚȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯǯȱ- ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ěȱ internationally. ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ the NCA: • ȱǱ Seven of the eight regions of the NCA include coastal areas and marine ecosystems. Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬ- dent species, habitats, users, and communities; • ȱǱ The oceans and marine resources considered in this report are ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱ coastal areas, especially for marine-dependent species, habitats, users, and communities; • ȱ ǱȱMarine ecosystem conditions can directly impact public health through harmful algal blooms, contaminated seafood, the spread of disease, and other mechanisms. Climate change impacts that increase these conditions ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ areas; • ǱȱMarine transportation is critical to the nation’s economy, health, ȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ecosystems, such as changes in ocean circulation, storms, and other features, ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱ system; • ¢ȱ¢ǱȱThe nation’s energy supply from marine-related sources is ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ 6 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems, such as changes in ocean circula- ǰȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ energy sector; and • ¢ȱȱ¢ǱȱMarine ecosystems are some of the nation’s most complex, biologically rich, and valued ecosystems. Climate change is already impacting marine ecosystems and biodiversity and these impacts are expected ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ- dent on marine resources.

Figure 1- 4 Summary of climate-dependent changes in the California Current. Observed physical changes include surface warming, strengthened stratification, and a deepening thermocline that is super- imposed on strengthened upwelling wind stress and resultant increases in coastal and curl-driven upwelling. Long-term declines in dissolved oxygen have resulted in intensification of shelf hypoxia and vertical displacement of the hypoxia horizon, which reduces the habitat for certain oxygen-sensitive

demersal fish species and increases the inorganic carbon burden and potential for N2O flux. The surface

inorganic carbon load has also increased because of anthropogenic CO2 uptake. Time series from the past two to three decades indicate increasing trends in phytoplankton biomass; longer time series for zooplankton indicate decreasing biovolumes over the past six decades as well as shifts toward an earlier and narrower window of peak abundance. Increases in oceanic larval fish have been observed as have declines in salmon and rockfish productivity. Seabirds have experienced more variable and, in some cases, declining breeding success. Distributional shifts toward species with subtropical or southern ranges that are warmer and away from species with subarctic or northern ranges that are cooler have been evident in intertidal invertebrate, zooplankton, and seabird communities (Source: Doney et al., 2012). Chapter 2

Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems

Executive Summary

ȱȂȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ȱǻ Ǽȱȱǰȱ ȱŗşŜŗȱȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŝŖŖȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŖǯŘǚȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǲȱŘŖŗŖȂȱȱ ȱȱ ĴȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĴǰȱȱę- ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱ

ȱȱǰȱ2 is being absorbed by the oceans, causing a series of chemical ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŝśƖȱȱȱȱȱǻ¡ȱȱǯȱŘŖŗřǼǲȱ ȱȱ¢¡ȱǻȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱǼȱ - ȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȬȱȱŗşŜŖȱǻ£ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǲȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱřŖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǻ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĜȱȱ- ing CO2ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱęǰȱ-

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 by the oceans. While ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ atmospheric data collected from 1970-2005 suggests that there are overriding changes, ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱ¢ǰȱȱĴǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱǯ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱǻȱřǼǰȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ

7 8 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱȱȱǻȱŚǼǰȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱǻȱśǼǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŜǼǯȱ

Key Findings

ŘǯȲȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ • Arctic ice has been decreasing throughout the early 20th century. The summer of ŘŖŗŘȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱřǯŜȱȱŘǰȱ¡- ¢ȱŗȱȱŘȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱ volume has decreased by 75% over the previous decade. • ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ mean sea level rise of more than 1 meter above present day sea level by 2100. • Reductions in ice may occur more rapidly than previously suggested by coupled ȬȬȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǲȱ more recent modeling predicts that a seasonal ice-free state could occur as early as 2030.

řǯȲȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-

ȱȱȱ2.

• The annual accumulation of atmospheric CO2 has been increasing and in 2010

the overall CO2ȱȱ ȱřşȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ of the Industrial Revolution in 1750.

• ȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱśŖȱȱȱ2 than the atmosphere and ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǲȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ

oceans to absorb CO2ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯ • ¢ȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȃȱȱǯȄȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖȱ¢ǯȱ

ŚǯȲȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęǯ Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems 9

• ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱřŖȱǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ events. • ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǯ

• ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱęȱȱ2 is ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯ

śǯȲȱȱȱȦȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ Ȃȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱěȱǼȱȱ¢ǯȱ • ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ precipitation events are predicted to become more intense. • ȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ • ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ coastal communities because of the increases in coastal populations and infra- ȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯ

ŜǯȲ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȬȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ Ěȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱ • ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ circulation. • ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ

Key Science Gaps/Knowledge Needs

Many critical research gaps related to impacts of climate change on physical and chemical ocean systems remain, including: • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ oceans and associated sea level rise; • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱȱȱęǲ • Advanced integration of observations and predictive modeling, particularly at regional scales, in order to gain insight into future impacts of climate change; 10 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

• ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ the atmosphere; • Successful monitoring of tropical cyclone activity globally for emergence of ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȦȱ- tion of future storms; and • Improved understanding of the role of “blue carbon” science in ecosystem ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ

2.1 Introduction

ȱȱȱ ȬȱȱȱȂȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- nent of the global climate system. The oceans help to control the timing and regional distribution of the Earth’s response to climate change, primarily through their absorp-

tion of carbon dioxide (CO2) and heat. Changes to the physical and chemical properties ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ level rise is accelerating, the oceans are becoming increasingly acidic, and the rate of sea ice melt is steadily increasing. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ȱȱȱŘŖŖŝȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ changes currently being observed in the Earth’s oceans, including changes in tempera- ǰȱęǰȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱę- ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ

2.2 Ocean Temperature and Heat Trapping

ȱ Ȃȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - tions of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that increase air temperatures. Air temperature and sea surface temperature are strongly correlated, and the ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ the IPCC, “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the ȬŘŖȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǰȄȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱŗşśśȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ¡¢ȱŞŚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ absorbed by the oceans (Levitus et al., 2009), thereby increasing the average temperature ȱȱȱŝŖŖȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŖǯŘǚȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼȱǻȱŘȬŗǼǯ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ

ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗǯŗǚȱȱȱ ȱ2 emission sce-

ȱŗȱȱŜǯŚǚȱȱȱȱ2 emission scenario A1FI by the end of the 21st ¢ȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems 11

Figure 2-1 Time series of global annual ocean heat content (1022 J for the 0-700 m layer (black) and 0-100 m layer (thick red line; thin red lines indicate estimates of one standard deviation error) and equiv- alent sea surface temperature (blue; right-hand scale). All time series were smoothed with a three-year running average and are relative to 1961 (Source: Barange and Perry, 2009).

ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŖȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŗŞŞŖȱǰȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱŖǯśŞǚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ȱ ǻ Ȭ ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȂȱĚȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ- face temperatures to increase at a faster rate than previously observed (Friedlingstein,

2001). The present CO2ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŞŖŖǰŖŖŖȱ

¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻûȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ2 is ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱĜȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ

Ocean sea surface temperature The oceans play a dominant role in the Earth’s climate system through storage and transport of heat (Levitus et al., 2009). Observed temperature increases are uneven around the globe and both gains and losses in sea surface temperatures are governed by atmospheric and oceanic processes. Dominant atmospheric factors driving ocean ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǲȱȱ oceanic factors include heat transport by currents and vertical mixing. Fluctuations in ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǲȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ 12 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

is a driving force of atmospheric circulation. Evaporation rates are expected to increase ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǲȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱĚ¡ȱȱȱ the amount of heat retained in the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007a). The potential exists for ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȃ ¢ȱȱěȄȱǻ- ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǲȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ŘȬŘǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǲȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ Ȭ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěǰȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŗǼǯ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȬȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĴǲȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯǯȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ Observations indicate that changes in sea surface temperature in the tropical North At- ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¡ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ- ę¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ£ȱȱȂȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱǻ ȱ et al., 2007a). ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ sea level rise (discussed in greater detail in the Coastal Impacts, Adaptation and Vulner- Ǳȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗřȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ŘŖŗŘǰȱȱŘǯŘȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱ ice sheets and the thermal expansion or contraction of the oceans. In the case of thermal ¡ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱŗşŜŗȬŘŖŖřǰȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱřŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ£ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ on coastal areas for breeding or haul-out areas. Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems 13

Figure 2-2 Idealized depiction of how solar energy is absorbed by the earth’s surface, causing the earth to warm and to emit infrared radiation. The greenhouse gases then trap the infrared radiation, thus warming the atmosphere (Source: Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal http://www.grida. no/graphicslib/detail/greenhouse-effect_156e).

2.3 Loss of Arctic Ice

ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ throughout the second half of the 20th century and the early 21st century (Figure 2-3) ǻǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŝŞȱȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱřǯŜȱȱŘǰȱ¡¢ȱŗȱ- ȱŘȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ 75% over the last decade (Laxton et al. 2013). Every year since then, September ice extent ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŗȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱŘŖŖŝȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşŝşȱȱŘŖŖŜȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱřǯŝȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱŚŘȱȱȱȱǰȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŚȱȱŘŖŖŞȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ Ȭǯȱ 14 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Figure 2-3 Arctic sea ice extent. Satellite imagery of sea ice extent in September 1979 (outlines in red), and at a record low in September 2007 (Source: NASA).

Sea ice plays an important role in reducing the ocean-atmosphere exchanges of heat, ǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱĚȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĚȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱĜȱȱĚȱȱ¢ǲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱȱĚȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ£ȱȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ- ȧǰȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŖŜȱȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ beyond. ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ£ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻȱȱǰȱ 2010). Enhanced heat storage occurs in the ice-free regions of the Arctic Ocean and heat ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǲȱ £ȱ ȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱęȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems 15

ȱȱǻȱȱřȱȱŚǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱřŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȦȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ increasing loss of the great polar ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica could result in global mean sea level rise of substantially more than 1 meter above present day sea level ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱěȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǲȱ ǰȱȱ predict that reductions may actually happen more rapidly than previously indicated. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ŘŖřŖȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ

2.4 Salinity

Salinity refers to the salt content of the oceans. Contributors to salinity are terrestrial ȱǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ present. Ocean salinity changes are an indirect but potentially sensitive indicator for ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱěǰȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ¢ȱ may function as a proxy for identifying climate-driven changes in the Earth’s hydrologi- ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ¢Ȭȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ¢Ǳȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱ ȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻěȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ĴȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşśśȬŘŖŖřȱ period. Despite an overall increase in salinity for the Atlantic, studies conducted in the ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ One of the main reasons for this is the melting of Arctic sea ice and the resulting fresh- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ Ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ in the Gulf of Maine is increased precipitation. Many climate models predict that all ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢¢ȱȱȱĚ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢- ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱ¢ȱ Ǒ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǑȱȱęȱȱȱȱǻȱȱřǼǯ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱ 16 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ- ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱęȱǻȱȱŘǯśǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱ Ǽǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǯŝǼȱǻǰȱŗşşŗǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ climate-related increases in precipitation and glacial melt, ocean circulation may begin ȱ ȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ climate.

2.5 Stratification

ęǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ- ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ Ěȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ - ȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ȱȱȬ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱ ǰȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȬ¡ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ęȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭ¡ȱ ¢ǰȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǼǯȱ ȱęȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǲȱ ȱ ¡ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱŗşśŗȱȱŗşşřȱȱȱȱȱŞŖȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ £ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯ ęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱęǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȬ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱ ¡¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȬȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱŚǯŖȱȱ ȱşǯŚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ- ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȦȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȬ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems 17

Ȭȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯ ęȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱȬȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ¡¢ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ¡¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱǻǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱǰȱȬȱȱȱęȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱ

2.6 Changes in Precipitation and Extreme Weather Events

ȱȱȱěȱȱȂȱ ȱȱȱĴǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱŘǯŘǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ- ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱ¢ȱȱ ĴȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱĚȱȱȂȱ¢- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ

Winds ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱěȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǼǰȱęȱȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȱȱÛȱȱ- ȱǻǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱĴǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱ ȱĴȱȱ- ȱǰȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ- ȱ ¡¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ¡ǰȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖŖŗȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȬȱȱȱ 18 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱěǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ incidence of hypoxic and anoxic events (see Section 2.11).

Precipitation ȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱŘǯŘǯŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ coastal and marine systems (see Section 2.5).

Storms ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŖśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŘŞǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŗśǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻǰȱŞşŝȱǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ Ǽǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱŗşŘŞȱǻ ǰȱ ŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȬ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ satellite observations that began in approximately 1970 complicate the detection of long- ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ Sea surface temperatures are related to the maximum potential intensity of tropical ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱřȬŗŗȱȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȬȱ¢ȱŚȱȱśȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ - ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems 19

ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǲȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ě¡ǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȃȱȄȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǼǰȱ ȱǻȱŘȬŚǼǰȱȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼȱȱ¢Ȭǰȱ¢ȱ evidence of this theory. Moreover, because current climate models do not include these processes, the role of hurricane-induced mixing in the ocean on currents and the ther- ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱȱȱŘǯŝǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǯ

Figure 2- 4 This image was created from AMSR-E data on NASA's Aqua satellite and shows a 3-day average of actual sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean from August 25–27, 2005. 80 degrees Fahrenheit is necessary to maintain hurricanes, during this time period the Gulf of Mexico up to the coast of North Carolina averaged 82 degrees Fahrenheit or above (Source: NASA Goddard's Scientific Visualization Studio).

ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ęǰȱ ǰȱ and coastal ecosystems, storm activity is expected to increase in the Aleutian Islands ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖŗŗǰȱ ¢Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱȱǻȂǰȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŚŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ 20 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Ȭȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ęȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢¢ȱ ěȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȬȱȱǻ ȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱ impact larger regions (Overland et al., 2011). ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ǱȱǻŗǼȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱǻŘǼȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ to strong storms, (3) storm surge has historically been responsible for the greatest loss ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ¢ȱŘȬǼǰȱȱǻŚǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡- pected rise in sea level (for more information please see Coastal Impacts, Adaptation ȱ Ǳȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖŗřȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ - ǰȱȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱŘǯŘȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ on Coasts).

2.7 Ocean Circulation

ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȬ ȱĚ¡ȱȱȱ ocean surface are responsible for global ocean circulation, mixing, and the formation of ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȃ ȱ¢ȱȄȱǻǰȱŗşşŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǻǰȱŗşşŗǼǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ £ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȂȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱĴȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǰȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱǻěȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ circulation may be an increase in sea level rise as a result of circulation-induced pressure ȱǻǰȱŗşŝŚǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems 21

Case Study 2-A The "garbage patches"

The “garbage patches” are areas of marine debris ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱ it to be a small recirculation gyre (ocean Ĵȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ feature made up of currents that spiral ȱǰȱȱ¡ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ Ǽȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱĜȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ

What’s In a Name? Impact of Climate Change The name “garbage patch” is a misnomer. No is- • Floatable marine debris from land- and land of trash forms in the middle of the ocean nor ocean-based sources (e.g., tiny pieces of ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- plastic) enter the marine environment al photographs. Instead, much of the debris found ȱ ȱ ¢ǲȱ ȱ ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ seen easily from a boat. ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ the ocean. The number of intense storms Eastern and Western Patches capable of this action is predicted to increase ȱȱȱǻȱŘǯŜǼǯȱ • ȱ ȱ – Concentrations of marine debris have been noted in an area • Ocean currents and atmospheric condi- ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǯǯǰȱ ȱ ȯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȯȱ ¢Ȭ ȱȱȃȱȱǯȄȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ Ǽȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ not a stationary area, but one that rotates, marine debris; changes in current location moves, and changes. and strength may result in more or less con- ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ • ȱ ȱ – Another area of climate change on these processes is uncer- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ tain (Section 2.7).

This map shows the locations of the eastern and western "garbage patches.” Keep in mind that this is an over simplification of the constantly moving and changing features of the North Pacific Ocean. Source: NOAA 22 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Case Study 2-A (Continued) Can It Be Cleaned Up? ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȃ- ȱȄȱ ȱȱȱȱ- lenge because: • Concentration areas move and change throughout the year • These areas are typically large • The marine debris is not distributed evenly in these areas • ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ • Most of the marine debris found in these areas is small bits of plastic This all adds up to a bigger challenge than even sifting beach sand to remove bits Image of marine debris on a coral reef. Source: NOAA ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ- rine debris concentrates so does marine life. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǲȱ if not conducted carefully, clean-up may result in more harm than good for marine life.

¡¢ȱŘŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ is predicted as a result of thermal expansion and glacial melt (Yin et al., 2010). Thus, the ǯǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ- sen due to the amount information available related to climate change impacts. Addi- ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ changes in behavior as a result of climate change, but the information on those currents ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱ- cluded in the 2017 report.

California Current ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems 23

ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŚǼǲȱ ȱ ¡ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¡¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ Ȭȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ£ȱ et al., 2005).

Gulf Stream The Gulf Stream transitions from the Gulf of Mexico, passes through the Straits of Flor- ǰȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ǯȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ the Atlantic over the next several decades. The Gulf Stream is one component of the ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǲȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ- ent created by the Gulf Stream (Kelly et al., 1999). For example, an anomalously high sea ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱĴǰȱȱǰȱ and surface air temperatures throughout the northern hemisphere. The long-term varia- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ

2.8 Climate Regimes

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ior of the physical environment, such as persistent increases in ocean and atmospheric temperatures or shorter-term perturbations related to climatic events. These shifts have ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ 24 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱęȱȱ- ȱǻǼǰȱȱȱȱÛȱȱȱǻǼǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ oscillations over varying time scales creates challenges for climate prediction models, ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ Establishing a clear set of considerations for assessing uncertainty in regional climate change impacts assessments is vital for enabling an informed response to potential cli- ȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱ¢ȱ ŘȬǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ in climate regime shifts. ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ÛȦȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯǰȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŝȱǯȱ

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǰȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱǰȱǯȱ ȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ£ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ£ȱȱ al., 2003). When the NAO index is high (positive NAO state), precipitation increases ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱ- ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǼǰȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ǻ ȱ and Deser, 2010). Although the NAO index varies from year-to-year, it also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting more than a decade. An unusually ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŝŖȬŘŖŖŖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ indicates that the strength of its variability is increasing as phases are becoming more strongly positive and negative (Rind et al., 2005).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȬȱęȱȱȱǻǼȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘśȬřŖȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȬȱ ȱÛȬȱȱǻǰȱȱ Ǽȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ¡¢ȱ řȬŝȱ ¢ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŗşşŝǼǯȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ Ě- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems 25

Case Study 2-B Assessing confidence in regional climate ecosystem projections

Establishing a clear set of considerations for as- continental scales and above, disagreements sessing uncertainty in regional climate change im- are common at smaller spatial and temporal pacts assessments is vital for enabling an informed scales. Consideration of “inter-model spread” ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȃȱ is essential for establishing uncertainty in oceans. Global climate model simulations are a ȱǯ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢£ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ Śǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ regional biases. Although progress can be on multi-decadal to century time scales. Climate made using simple bias corrections, these model outputs are routinely used in a variety of cli- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ mate change impact studies and assessment prod- long observational records to establish mean ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ climate conditions. a number of global climate model limitations must ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ sessing uncertainty in regional climate-marine eco- only part of the challenge. To assess the ecosystem ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ 1. The spatial resolution of most global climate ȱǯȱęȱȱȱȱ models is coarse. At regional scales, model ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ěȱ ȱ Ěȱ ȱ Ȭ similar to climate models, according to their reli- scale radiative and circulation changes and ance on fundamental ecological and physiological may not capture the impact of unresolved re- principles expected to be robust as climate changes, ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱę- and according to their ability to match past ob- cantly alter broad-scale trends. served ecological changes. 2. Changes in climate are driven by changes Continuing developments in climate and eco- in radiative forcing arising from greenhouse ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - gases, aerosols, and other factors (often re- scribed above and improve our understanding of ferred to as the “forced change”) and internal ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǯȱ ǰȱ climate variability. Climate variability is often existing tools and understanding have progressed ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱĜȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱěȱ ȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ informed by applications of present tools. 3. ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ on the direction and magnitude of multi- Provided by Dr. Charles Stock, NOAA decadal changes in many climate variables at

ȬȬȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ- tion near the coast (King et al., 2011). The opposite occurs during the negative phase.

Overland and Wang (2007) suggest that under the A1B (middle range) CO2 emission 26 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱśŖȱ¢ǯ

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ Ȭ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǱȱȱÛǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱÛǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ in ocean-atmosphere exchange controls year-to-year ENSO variability and one or more of the physical processes responsible for determining the characteristics and global im- ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱǲȱȱ¡ǰȱȬȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ documented in the central California Current region during El Niño years (Bograd et ǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȬȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ circulation in the proximity of the southern California coast has occurred during the lat- ȱǻŘŖŗŖȬŘŖŗŗǼȱȱÛȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱĚȱȱ- ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ et al., 2010).

2.9 Carbon Dioxide Absorption by the Oceans

The annual accumulation of atmospheric CO2 has been increasing and, in 2010, the

overall CO2ȱȱ ȱřşȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ -

dustrial Revolution in 1750 (IPCC, 2007a). The IPCC indicates that reducing the CO2 de- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŞśȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱŘǯŖǚȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ

in extreme global changes (IPCC, 2007a). CO2 reductions can be achieved both through

reducing anthropogenic sources of CO2 and supporting CO2ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȂȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ-

ȱȱȱ2 ǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱ

50 times more CO2ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ

ȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱęǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ-

sorb more CO2 than they release but CO2ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ

ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ

ǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱ Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems 27

ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ2 is absorbed (see Section 2.10),

ȱȱěȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 ǻȱȱěǰȱŗşŝŝǲȱȱȱǰȱŗşŜŜǲȱȱȱǰȱŗşśŝǲȱ ȱȱęǰȱŗşŝśǲȱȱȱǰȱŗşŝŖǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȃȱȄȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ments, coastal seagrasses, tidal marshes, and mangroves. When degraded or disturbed, these systems release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere or ocean. Currently, carbon- rich coastal ecosystems are being degraded and destroyed at a global average 2 percent ¢ǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ- ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŘŖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşŞŖȱȱ 2005 (Giri, 2010; Spaulding et al., 2010). Carbon continues to be lost from the most organic soils in coastal areas. For instance, analysis of the agricultural soils of Sacramento’s ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ

CO2 at rates of 5 to 7.5 million tCO2ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱŗȱȱȱȂȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ leading to releases of approximately 1 billion tCO2ȱȱȱȱŗśŖȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ- vation and improved management of these systems brings climate change mitigation ęȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- system management issues has implications for future climate adaptation strategies as ȱȱȱȱǯȱ

2.10 Ocean Acidification

Ocean chemistry is changing in response to the absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱśŖȱȱ¢ȱǻ ãȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ ȱ

ȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ -

mate process, but instead a direct impact of rising CO2 absorption on ocean chemistry. ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ- sions regarding both solutions and adaptation to climate change often ignore ocean ęǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŘśȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȬȱȱȱŗŞŖŖȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱěȱȱȱȱ-

ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ

ȱȱěǰȱ2ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ chemical environment (Feely et al., 2010). Carbon occurs naturally and in abundance in 28 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ

dissolved carbon dioxide (COŘǻǼǼǰȱȱȱǻ 2CO3Ǽǰȱȱȱǻ 3-), and 2- carbonate ions (CO3 Ǽǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ

maintain the ionic charge balance in the ocean. The addition of CO2ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ excess hydrogen ions, and changes in the relative concentrations of bicarbonate and car- ȱȱǻȱȱěǰȱŗşŝŝǲȱȱȱǰȱŗşŜŜǲȱȱȱ ǰȱŗşśŝǲȱ ȱȱęǰȱŗşŝśǲȱȱȱǰȱŗşŝŖǲȱȱŘȬŜǼǯȱ

Figure 2-6 As CO2 is absorbed by the atmosphere it bonds with sea-water to form carbonic acid. This acid then releases a bicarbonate ion and a hydrogen ion. The hydrogen ion bonds with free carbonate ions in the water to form another bicarbonate ion. This free carbonate would otherwise be available to marine animals for making calcium carbonate shells and skeletons. (Source: NOAA).

ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Ȃȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŞǯŘȱȱŞǯŗȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱȱȱȱřŖȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ-

ĴǰȱŘŖŖřǰȱŘŖŖśǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱ2 emission rates, a further decline in ȱȱŖǯřȱȱŖǯŚȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱ 2009 and Riebesell et al., 2007). Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems 29

ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǻȱŘȬŝǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǰȱȱ

ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱ ȱ

ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱ2 ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ ęȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-

cause CO2ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ

ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ2 ȱȱȬȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¡ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖśǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ systems are not immune to such changes. In fact, the greatest rate of change in carbonate ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱ ȱ rates decline in proportion to a changing carbonate mineral saturation state) but a con- ȱěǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ęȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱęȱ ȱǻȱȱřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȃȱ Ȅȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ

Current, it is naturally rich in CO2ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ-

ȱȱ¡¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŝǯŜȱȱŝǯŝȱǻ¢ȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ŘŗŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱřȮŚǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢- product of many anthropogenic activities such as shipping, oil and gas exploration, etc., 30 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ- ǰȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱŖǯřȱȱȱŚŖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ acoustic properties are measured on a logarithmic scale, and neglecting other losses, ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŝŖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ

expected from a doubling of CO2ȱǻ ȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ modeling suggests that, due to the complexities of sound traveling through the ocean, ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǲȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ŗŖŖȱ ¢ȱ ǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱęȱȱȱ sound levels in the ocean is an area that deserves further study.

Figure 2-7 Calculated saturation states of aragonite, a form of calcium carbonate often used by calcifying organisms. By the end of this century, polar and temperate oceans may no longer be conducive for the growth of calcifying organisms such as some mollusks, crustaceans, and corals. (Source: Feely, Doney, and Cooley, 2009).

2.11 Hypoxia

¢¡ȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȃ¢¡Ȅȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¡¢ȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ£ȱȱ- ǰȱŗşşśǲȱȬ¢ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱȱ Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems 31

ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱśŖȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱȱ¡¢ȱŚŖŖȱ¢ȱŘŖŖŞȱǻ£ȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱ¢¡ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱŗŘȱȱȱŗşŜŖȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱřŖŖȱ ¢ȱŘŖŖŞȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ¢¡ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱ ¡¢Ȭȱ¢ȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ¢ȱ Ȭ¡¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱęȱȱȱ¢¡ȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŗşşŗǲȱȱȱ £ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢¡ȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- £ȱȱęǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȃȄǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢¡ǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ- ȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǻ ¢ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱǻĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱ¢¡ȱǻ ¢ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ¢ȬȱȱĴǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯ ¢¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢Ȭȱ¢¡ȱǻȱȱǰȱŗşşŗǲȱ£ȱ ȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱǰȱȃȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ¢ǰȄȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ěǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱŘȬŞǼȱ ǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢¡ȱ ǯȱ ȱȬȱȬȱ¢¡ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱŞŖǰŖŖŖȱ2ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǰȱȱȱ ȱǯǯǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȦ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻ¡ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ¢¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȬŗşŞŖȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱ ȱȱȱŚǰŖŖŖȱ2ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱŘŖǰŝŗşȱ2, ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯĢ¢¡ǯǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ported eutrophication-related problems included hypoxia, losses of submerged grasses, numerous occurrences of nuisance and toxic harmful algal blooms, and excessive algal ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱ¢ȱŘȬǰȱȱřǰȱ ȱȱŚǼǯȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢¡ǯȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ 32 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱ¢ȱȱ¢¡ȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢¡ȱǰȱ ȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱęȱǰȱ¡ȱȱȂȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱ¢¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢¡ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşŜǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ

Figure 2-8 Relative magnitude and contribution (the larger the arrow, the larger the contribution) of land management practices versus climate change factors to the expansion or contraction of low- dissolved oxygen. (Source: modified from Diaz and Breitberg, 2009).

ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- Ȭȱȱ¢¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱ the expected long-term ecological changes favor progressively earlier onset of hypoxia each year and, possibly, longer overall duration (Boesch et al., 2007). Increasing average ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢¡ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ęǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡¢ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ oxygen consumption and nutrient recycling. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǰȱȱ ȱ- ęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǻ ǰȱ Climate-Driven Physical and Chemical Changes in Marine Ecosystems 33

ŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡¢ȱ ȱ ǻ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖşǲȱ °ȱ et al., 2007). Climate predictions for the Mississippi River basin suggest a 20 percent ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŗşşŘǼǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ average extent of hypoxia on the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf (Greene et al., 2009). Ȭȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢¡ȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ

Case Study 2-C Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico

In August 1972, scientists found severe hypoxia in ȱ¡¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ to decompose. ȱŗşŞśǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ of this seasonally hypoxic region in the Gulf of ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ largest eutrophication-related hypoxic area in the ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ěǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱŘŖǰŝŗşȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘȱȱŘŖŖŞȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ southern boundaries of the Gulf of Mexico, along from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya Rivers. Because ȱ¡Ȭȱǰȱ ȱ¡ȱǰȱ ȱ¡¢ȱȱ ȱŘȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ȱęȱǰȱȱȱ ŗşşŞȱ ȱ Ûȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȃ ȱȱ¡ȱ Dead Zone.” Not surprisingly, discovery of the Dead ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ cause of hypoxic conditions. Investigators soon agreed that the most probable cause of these ȱ ȱȱĚ¡ȱȱ£ȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ £ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - trients such as nitrogen and phosphorus that ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - systems. An overabundance of nutrients can Algal blooms in Gulf of Mexico. Dead zones are ȱ¡ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ- areas of oxygen-depleted waters that form when ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ - nutrients stimulate the growth of algae blooms ganisms in the system. Excess algae can reduce (Source: NASA). ǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ 34 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Case Study 2-C (Continued)

ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ecological changes that favor progressively earlier ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱ onset and duration of hypoxia each year. Climate ȱǯȱ ȱęȱȱȱ ȱ- predictions for the Mississippi River basin suggest umn suppressed aeration, created hypoxic condi- ȱŘŖȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ǯ expected to increase the average extent of hypoxia ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¡- on the northern Gulf of Mexico and result in the bate both naturally occurring and eutrophication continued expansion of the Gulf of Mexico Dead ȱ¢¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- Zone. ful algal blooms. Changes in temperature, pre- ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȬȱ

These displaced surface waters are replaced by cold, nutrient- rich water that wells up from below (Source: NOAA). Chapter 3

Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms

Executive Summary

ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱ- ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ to changes in the timing of life-history events, and ecosystem regime shifts. Climate- related impacts on ocean systems include shifts in species’ phenology and ranges, increases in species’ invasions and disease, and changes in the abundance and diversity of marine plants and animals, among others. Observations and research have demonstrated high variability in the vulnerability and responses of organisms to changes in ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȃ Ȅǰȱȱȱȱ are negatively impacted, or “losers.” ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ǯȱ ȱǰȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ ecosystems and the nonlinear interactions of multiple stressors on organisms and ecosystems. Progress is being made in forecasting the ecological responses of ocean systems ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ture, including potentially novel environments, remains a challenge. Climate change is often a threat multiplier, meaning that it impacts marine organ- ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ pressure. Although in many cases these “multiple stressors” are simply additive in their ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǰȱȱȱǯȱ- ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ reducing non-climatic stressors at local-to-regional scales can provide an opportunity to enhance the resilience of marine ecosystems to climate change. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȬǰȱȱȱěǰȱȱȃȱ points”, an area of concern. The sustained, long-term monitoring of ecological responses,

35 36 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱ- ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Research is also needed to improve understanding of the processes and mechanisms ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - sponses of marine organisms and ecosystems to climate change can provide important ȱȱĴǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǲȱ ǰȱ¡ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȬȬȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ- ismal responses to climate change, meaning that conclusions regarding responses to environmental change at one location cannot necessarily be used to predict responses in ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ can genetically adapt to climate-driven environmental change is highly uncertain.

Key Findings

ŘǯȲȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȃ Ȅǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ negatively impacted, or “losers”. • ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȦȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡- ȱ ȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱȱȱ species. • Species such as corals and other calcifying organisms that are exposed to ocean ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ marine ecosystems.

řǯȲȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ non-climatic stressors such as pollution, overharvesting,disease and invasive species. • Climate-related stressors such as changes in temperature can operate as threat ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱǯ • Opportunities exist for ameliorating some of the impacts of climate change through reductions in non-climatic stressors at local-to-regional scales. • ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢- ȱěȱȱȱ ȱǯ Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms 37

ŚǯȲȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ • Observed responses to ongoing environmental change often vary in magnitude across space and time, suggesting that extrapolations of responses from one location to another may be challenging. • ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱěǰȱ or “tipping points”, that could result in rapid ecosystem change are a particular area of concern.

Key Science Gaps/Knowledge Needs

ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢- ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱĜȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȃȄǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǱ • ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ can genetically adapt to rapid environmental change. • Determine the cumulative impacts of multiple climatic and non-climatic ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢Ȭȱ¡ǯ • Improve understanding and prediction of environmental and ecological conditions that lead to non-linearities and tipping points in coastal and marine ecosystems. • Enhance the development of spatially-explicit predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change, particularly for local-to-regional scales, including estimates of uncertainty. • Further the ability to measure and forecast physical variables at scales and reso- lutions that are relevant to ecological responses. • Improve understanding and valuation of climate-related impacts on ocean ecosystem services.

3.1 Physiological Responses

Considerable progress has been made in understanding physiological responses of ȱȱȱȱȱǻãȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ and non-climate-related stressors interact in their impacts on marine organisms, and that physiological responses to these stressors can be highly variable across species and life-history stages. 38 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱ- ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱǻ- ro, 2011) and recent studies have also begun to explore the important impacts of the Ȃȱȱ ȱǻȱęǲȱ Ȭ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¢- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ- ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱǰȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ȱȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǰȱęȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ made in understanding physiological and ecological responses to climate change, and in ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǻ ǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ more clearly understand the impacts of the temporally- and spatially-complex changing environment on marine organisms and ecosystems. Advances in molecular technology for detecting physiological responses of organisms to stress and the genetic underpin- ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻěǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱãǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱ£ ǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱĴǰȱŘŖŖŗǼǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱĴǰȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ Some evidence exists for local adaptation of marine organisms to high-stress environments. For example, marine snails on the Oregon coast experience higher levels of aerial ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ southern populations of the same species in California (Kuo and Sanford, 2009). Adult snails in Oregon have higher thermal tolerance than do their counterparts at cooler Cali- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǰȱȱȱȱ populations have genetically adapted to the more extreme conditions they experience ǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ adaptation to thermal stress by corals and their symbionts may help reefs to maintain ȱȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱęȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ Ȭ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŚǼȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ- £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms 39

Effects of temperature change ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŝǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£¢ȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ lead to an increase in the metabolic oxygen organisms need, and ultimately to oxygen ę¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻãǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱãȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ¡¢- ȱę¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻãȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǼȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ problematic in the future as increasing ocean temperatures are expected to exacerbate ȱ Ȭ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¡¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ Ȧȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȃ ȬǰȄȱ organisms such as mammals and birds must maintain a relatively constant body temperature; therefore, changes in the ambient temperature outside of their preferred range ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȬȱȱȱ- fects can occur. For example, manatees living in Florida experience a cold stress syn- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖǚȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǲȱ ȱ ȱ include emaciation, immunosuppression, and increased mortality (Bossart et al., 2002). ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ŚŞŖȱǰȱŝŖȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱśŖȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱ ȱȱ- ȬĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ have negative impacts on endothermic marine species and repeated mortality events resulting from thermal stress can lead to population decreases. ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ - ǰȱȱȃȬǰȄȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ambient environmental conditions. Although some marine organisms exhibit broad tol- ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŘǲȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ ¢ǰȱŘŖŖřǲȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ diversity because hundreds of invertebrate species rely on mussel beds for habitat (Smith ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȃȱȄȱ¢ȱ- tiply the detrimental impacts of climate change on ocean ecosystems (Gedan and Bert- ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱǰȱ Ȭȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ 40 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Ȭȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱ¡ȱȃȄȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱĴȱȱŗȬŘǚȱȱȱřȬŚȱ ȱ ǻ ȱȱǰȱŗşşśǼǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚǰȱ ȱȱ£- ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ Ȭ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȃȱ bleaching,” is not necessarily immediately fatal, but it can lead to severe reductions in ȱȱȱȱǻ Ȭ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ£¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱěȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȬȱȱȬȱǻęȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻ Ȭ ȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǲȱęȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱŝśȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱśŖȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱŘŖřŖȂǰȱȱȱȱşśȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖśŖȂȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱŗȦřȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ climate change and local stressors. Loss of coral cover and reef three-dimensional com- ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ£ȬȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢¢ǯȱ For some marine animal species, increasing food supply can result in higher levels of thermal tolerance (Schneider et al., 2010). Climate change is expected to impact individual nutrition status as prey species shift geographic and depth ranges, altering the ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ - creased exposure to unfavorable environmental conditions may exacerbate nutritional ęǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ

Ocean acidification impacts As the oceans absorb increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, chemical reactions ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱ ǻȱȱŘǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ęȱȱęǰȱ¢ǰȱȱę¡ȱȱęǰȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms 41

ǰȱ£¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǻ Ĵȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ ȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ Ĵȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȬ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱ- ȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǲȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ¢Ȭȱȱǻ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ǻ ãȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ ȬȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ£ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱ- ęȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ ãȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱęȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǻ Ȭ

Guldberg and Bruno, 2010). The higher solubility of CO2ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱěȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱ¢Ȭȱ species such as salmon depend heavily on them as prey (Fabry et al., 2009). ȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ Ȃȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱȱ¡£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ

ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱ ȱ2 ǯȱ ȱǰȱȱę¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ǲȱ ȱ example, increased acidity can decrease thermal tolerance of some marine animals due ȱ¡¢ȱȱǻãǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¡ȱ £ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ in the responses of ecologically and economically important species, and long-term im- ȱǻ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęǯȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 42 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱęȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ

accretion stops at atmospheric CO2ȱȱȱŚŞŖȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǰȱ ŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ-

ble at atmospheric CO2 levels of 550 ppm (Silverman et al., 2009). A study based on cores ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱŘŗȱ ȱ ȱŗşŞŞȱȱŘŖŖřȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱȱȱȱęǰȱǰȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ

CO2ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ǰȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱęȱȱęȱ¢ȱęȱǻ £ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱęȱ ȱǻȱȱ¢ȱřȬǼǰȱ ȱęȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ

ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ2 are rapidly released into the atmosphere (Zachos ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǼǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ

changes in CO2ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱǻ Ĵȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ Ĵȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱ- ing a magnitude of ocean change that is potentially unparalleled in at least the past ~300 ȱ¢ȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱǻ ãȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ- ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ intact ecosystems remain critically necessary topics for future research.

Case Study 3-A Ocean acidification impacts on the oyster industry

Commercial bivalve production on the West Coast Ȭȱ ǰȱ Ĵȱ - ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǞŘŝřȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢- al strain on the limited seed supply. Potential ter hatcheries providing most of the seed used by ǰȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ- ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ ǻ¢Ȃȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ęȱ - ȱęȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ-

Ǽȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ pect elevated CO2 as the culprit and sent samples ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱ Ȭ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ Marine Environmental Laboratories for analyses. Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms 43

Case Study 3-A (Continued)

ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱ from having no shell at all to having 70 percent ¢ȱȱǰȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ of their mass consist of shell mineral material. ȱ ¢ȱ Ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ During this period, they depend on carbonate ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Bay. In addition, larval oysters are strongly sen- reserves for shell carbon. In addition, lipid (i.e., ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ fat) reserves are severely depleted, highlighting ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ the need for additional energy during this critical ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- Ĵȱȱǯ ȱȱȱǻ̛Ǽǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ Together, these results paint a picture of larval shell material consists. development that depends on favorable ambient ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ conditions during critical and energetically expen- ¢ǯȱǰȱȱȱȬȱȱ- ȱ¢Ȭ ȱĴǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ responds to atmospheric CO2 levels predicted not express themselves clearly until later in the or- ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ŘȬřȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ Ȃȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ thus serve as a “canary in the coal mine” for other ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ £ȱ

ȱ ȱȱ2 levels have not yet operations for favorable conditions and even con- ȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚ ȱ delayed response to carbonate chemistry during ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ

Why are oyster larvae so dependent on the CO2 levels rise. ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǵȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ŚŞȱ ȱ ȱ £ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ

Relative larval production at Whiskey Creek Shellfish Hatchery in response to the favorability of ambient waters

with respect to aragonite (:A). Relative production is positive when growth exceeds mortality; in the waters adjacent to the Hatchery, this condition is met

at :A ~1.7, corresponding to a

pCO2 of ~450 µatm. Reproduced from Barton et al., 2012 44 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Exposure to toxicants Toxicants are poisonous substances that can be produced by organisms (i.e., biotoxins), released from geologic stores such as heavy metals and some hydrocarbons, or result from a variety of anthropogenic sources such as persistent organic pollutants, petroleum ¢ǰȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱ change can alter toxicant exposure levels for marine organisms through changes in the ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱřǯŘǰȱŚǯŜǼȱȱ other toxins. Climate-related changes can also occur through alterations in ocean cur- ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¡ȱȱ estuaries. Additionally, changes in feeding ecology can propogate toxicants throughout ȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǼȱȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱ¡- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǻ- ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ¡ȱȱĜȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ

Effects on life history tradeoffs and larval dispersal ¢ȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻěǰȱŗşşŘǲȱǰȱŗşşŘǼǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱěǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻęȱȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȬȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱęǰȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ¢ȱǻŘŘǚǼȱȱȱǻŗŜǚǼȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȬȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱ ǲȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱȬȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǻ£ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ temperature may alter these oscillations and therefore the relative abundance of these species in the future. Phenology, the timing of annual life-history events such as migration and breeding can provide valuable insight into the impacts of climate change. Thermal stress has been ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǰȱ ŗşşŜǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms 45

ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ĴȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ¡ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢- ȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱę- ȱĚȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ- Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȂȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ǰȱ 1997; Kristiansen et al., 2011). Larval stages of some marine organisms are more vulner- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ¢ȱ ȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼȱǯȱȱęȱ- £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȬ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ

3.2 Population and Community Responses

There is strong evidence that climate-driven changes in environmental conditions are ěȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱǯȱ ȱǰȱ Ȭ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖřǼǰȱȱȱȱ are highly variable due to the impacts of local environmental conditions including non- ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ and predation. In addition, strong evidence indicates that many marine species appear ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȬȱȱǯȱ Collectively, these impacts are leading to observed changes in community composition and ecosystem processes. Exploring the relative sensitivity of marine species and their ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ

Primary productivity Marine primary productivity by both microscopic and macroscopic photosynthetic or- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ 46 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ǰȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ also provide nearshore habitat and food sources to a diversity of marine organisms. ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ȱ - ǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢- ǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ¢ǲȱ ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱęȱǻȱ¢ǲȱȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȬȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢- ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ¤ȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢- ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱŘŗȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱǰȱ¢¢ȱ ȱ Ȭ£ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ future climate change scenarios. On a global scale, a recent study suggested that the past ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻ£ȱ et al., 2011). Primary productivity in the central and southern California Current System ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ£ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ Ȭ¢ȱ ȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȬȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱŘȬŘŖȱȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖǰȱ ȱȱȱȬȬ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ climate change and marine primary productivity. ȱȱȱǻ ǼȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȬǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱ increased in duration, number, and species diversity over the past three decades (Ander- ǰȱŗşŞşǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ ěǰȱŗşşřǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱęǰȱǰȱȱȱ ǻȱȱŚǯŜǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ-

matically under high CO2ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱęȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ the red tide organism Karenia brevisǰȱȱĚȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȂȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms 47

ȱ¢ȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱǰȱĴȱǰȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯǰȱŗşşŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŗşŚŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŘǲȱȱȱǯǰȱ 2009). Although brevetoxin exposure increases during K. brevis blooms, the persistence ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱěȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ are unclear (Fire et al., 2007). Domoic acid, a potent neurotoxin produced by the diatom Ȭĵȱ ǯǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ Ĵǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǲȱȱȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŖŖǲȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱĴȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ Ȭȱ- toxins on marine organisms and humans. Blooms of “nuisance” macroalgae may shade out other benthic primary producers, either seagrasses or perennial macroalgae, and negatively impact coral reefs through ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ǻ£Ȭȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǲ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşśǲȱȱ¢ȱřȬǼǯȱ- ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ¡¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱ£ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ Many mechanisms are potentially responsible for the expansion of algal blooms into ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȬ¡ȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱěǰȱ¢ȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱ ŗşşŝǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖşǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĜȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǻ¢ǰȱ ŗşŞśǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱǰȱŗşŝřǼǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ Ȭȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşŝǼȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭȱȱǻ¢ǰȱŗşŞśǲȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȬȬȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ŘǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ¡- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ 48 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȬęȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- together, resulting in an alternative habitat state (e.g., the formation of sea urchin bar- ǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŗşŞśǲȱ ȱȱǰȱŗşŞśǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻ£ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǲȱ£ȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȬȬȱȬȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱǰȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǰǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ Ȭǰȱȱ Ȭȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȬȬȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ- ȱǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ęȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ£ȬȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱ ĴǰȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȬęȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻ£ȬȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱęȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ

ȱȱ2ȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ-

¢Ȭȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ2 may be particularly

sensitive to increases in CO2ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȬęȱȱȱȱȱ- nity for future research.

Shifts in species distribution ȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ Ȭ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ Analyses of shifts in species distributions have demonstrated that marine systems ap- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱȱǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǼȱȱǰȱȱȬǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ- mate-related shifts often occur at range boundaries, but, due to the importance of local ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȂȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms 49

Case Study 3-B Shifting interactions between corals and macroalgae

Corals and macroalgae are the dominant com- ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ şŖȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ petitors for primary space on many coral reefs. ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ - ȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱśŖȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱ living coral cover died from diseases (Miller et al., ŘŖŖŗǼǰȱ ȱ ¢¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĝȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ indirectly by substances released by macroalgae ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ- ěȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵ- ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǲȱ Ȭ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȃ ǰȄȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱǯȱ ǯȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ę- ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ- ing and pollution is the best short-term strategy ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵǯȱ ȱ for increasing coral resilience to climate change human activities tend to shift the competitive ǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ balance in favor of macroalgae at the expense of that reefs remote from local human impacts, such ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - as the uninhabited Northern Line Islands that are ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱęȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ tional Monument, still remain relatively healthy ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ - als. On many reefs, these processes have already ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ severely compromise the ability of corals to out- or gradual, from coral-dominated reefs to algal- ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱęȱ amplify the impacts of these non-climatic stressors on corals. The dino- Ěȱ ¢ȱ ǻ£¡Ǽȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ sensitive to slight increases in temperature than are the macroalgae that are commonly found on reefs. Coral ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ŗȬŘǚȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ Ȭ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ 2007). Even if corals do survive, they may succumb to disease after experiencing thermal stress; for example, Overgrowth of coral by the alga Boodlea in Hawaii (Photo ȱ ŘŖŖśȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ǰȱ Credit: NOAA). 50 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ ¢ǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Ȭȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱ et al., 2011). Forecasts of future responses to climate change based on observations of Ȭ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ indicated above (see Section 3.1), the pace and precise location of these changes remain ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱȬęȱ- fects of these changes on interacting organisms, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ- ing conditions (Denny et al., 2009; Nye et al., 2011; Sagarin and Gaines, 2002; Sanford and Kelly, 2011). ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ěǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǲȱȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŚǲȱ £ǰȱ ŘŖŖřǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡- ¢Ȭȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȃ¢Ȅȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱ- ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢Ȭ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱŗşśŜȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱKelletia kelletii in California dem- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱŚŖŖȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŝŖȱȱ¢ȱŗşŞŖǰȱ ȱ ȱȱęȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱŗşŝşǰȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ- rennial species, such as barnacles and mussels, to annual native and invasive species. A ¢ȱȱȬȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱ of climate change on larval dispersal due to changes in currents and alterations in the timing of reproduction may lead to shifts in species distributions. ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¡- ǰȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǲȱ ȱ ȱ ŚǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms 51

ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱŗşŝŖȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱřŜȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱŗşŜŞȬŘŖŖŝȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱǯȱȱęȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŝȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱŚȱǰȱȱęȱȱ¡ȱȱŗŖȱȱǻ¢ȱȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ěȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ ¢ȱȱȱǻ ěȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖřǰǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ¡ȱȱĚȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ¢ȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- havior resulting from shifting prey distribution and abundance. Arctic regions are par- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱǯȱȱ ¡ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ result of high ocean temperatures (Springer et al., 2007). In the same region, reduced sea ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴ ȱȱ ȱřŘȬ¢ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȬȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ- bution for coastal and marine systems (Sorte et al., 2010b).

Marine diseases ȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǻȱȱě¢ǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ to have marine counterparts. The impacts of climate change on disease emergence and 52 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ- tion of individuals carrying disease vectors, introductions from terrestrial systems into marine environments, impacts to pathogen ability to reproduce, and increased environmental stress that leads to increased susceptibility of hosts to infection (Mills et al., 2010). ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ by climate change. In some cases, these changes could limit disease; in other cases, dis- ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻ£ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǲȱ ȱ et al., 1999). Pathogens, including macro- and micro-parasites, are in a constant state of ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȬȱ interactions as either the host becomes more susceptible to disease or the pathogen’s virulence increases. Variations in species’ ranges may alter pathogen distribution and ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱ ȱǯǰȱŗşşŞǲȱǰȱŗşşŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- sponsible for the enhanced survival of certain marine Vibrioȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱǻ£Ȭ£ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱŚǼǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȬȬȱ ȱȱ ȱŗşşřȱȱŘŖŖřȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯ Pathogens novel to marine organisms can enter coastal and oceans systems as ter- ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȬěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱSarcocystis neurona, a £ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĴȱǻȱȱ al., 2010b). In addition, the emergence and pathogenesis of the disease leptospirosis has ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱ¢ȱřȬǼǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşŜǲȱ¢ȬȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ The impacts of climate change on future rates of marine disease are uncertain. Chang- es in environmental conditions may lead to range shifts of macro- and micro-parasites, ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ contain barriers to the spread of disease through ecological interactions such as competi- ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻě¢ǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ- plete various stages of their life cycle are particularly sensitive to climate change because ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms 53

ȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ in non-climatic stressors provided by protected areas may potentially reduce disease ǲȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱşŚȱ¢ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ability to predict future climate-related changes in infection prevalence and intensity, £ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ provide insight into current and future impacts of climate change on marine diseases.

Case Study 3-C Leptospirosis disease in California sea lions

The emergence and pathogenesis of a serious Leptospirosis is endemic in California sea li- emerging human and animal disease, leptospi- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ - ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşŜǲȱ¢ȬȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ¢ȱ ěȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŗşŝŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱLep- over 300 sea lions died along the central Califor- tospiraȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ ǰȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ the coasts of Oregon, Washington, and British years, this disease has re-emerged ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŚǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ have been noted. Increased lepto- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ increases in precipitation and Ěȱ ȱ ȱ Ûȱ ȱ ǻĴǰȱ ŘŖŖŗǲȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ber of reported cases of leptospi- ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵȱ California sea lion being treated for leptospirosis at The months of the year (Gaynor et al., Marine Mammal Center, Sausalito, California (Photo: The ŘŖŖŝǲȱ ĵȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ Marine Mammal Center). 54 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Case Study 3-A (Continued)

ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ and that the seasonal movements of these animals sea lions either die at sea or are stranded on may contribute to the geographical spread of the ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - disease (Zuerner et al., 2009). In the future, the ex- creased disease transmission to terrestrial animals posure to and incidence of leptospirosis in both can occur. Leptospira bacteria has been found to humans and marine mammals may increase in ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ response to the combination of human population ȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱ ȱ £ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ies, thereby increasing the possibility of transmis- populations and expansions of the ranges of ma- sion of the bacteria to domestic animals, terrestrial rine mammals and changes in environmental con- ǰȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǰȱȱ et al., 2009; Zuerner et al., 2009). Recent informa- Ěǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ 2010). chronic, or “inapparent,” carriers of Leptospirosis

Invasive species ȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱ ¢ȱ£ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻǰȱŗşşŜǲȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ£ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŖǲȱ £ȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ centuries and species introductions have been documented in most marine habitats ȱǻ£ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǰȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱŘřŖȱȬȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŗşşŞǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ£ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŖǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ drivers have also been reported (Firth et al., 2011; Reid et al., 2007). In addition, climate ȬȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ in as-of-yet uninvaded habitats (de Rivera et al., 2011). For example, climate change is ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȬǰȱȬ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǰȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ǰȱ ȱ that the number of species capable of invading the polar region may be limited (Sigler ȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ movement for the introduced Asian green mussel, Perna viridis, may be currently lim- ȱ¢ȱȱǲȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¡- ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms 55

ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ temperature tolerance ranges than their native counterparts (Abreu et al., 2011; Braby ȱǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱǰȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ £ȱȱǯǰȱ 2002a). Climate-mediated invasions and range shifts may also alter species interactions ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ £ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŘǼȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢Ȭ ȱȱ ȱ - ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ threat to the persistence and interactions of native marine species in a changing climate.

Protected species ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ species such as marine mammals, sea turtles (Case Study 3-D), and sea birds, and these ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ to be primarily due to shifts in productivity and prey availability, changes in critical ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ shifts in coastal currents (see Section 2). Climate change is a challenge for the sustainable ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱŚǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ Ȭ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱ ȱ 2007; Wassmann et al., 2011). ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱ£- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ stages. For example, marine turtles may cross entire ocean basins throughout their life- times and can occupy diverse habitats such as sandy beaches, mangroves, and seagrass ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱȱȱǰȱŗşşŝǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱȱȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱ¢ȱřȬǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱěǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ£ȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱǰȱȬȱȱ ȱ - ȱȱȱ ȱŗŖǚȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŗşşŘǲȱȱ ȱǰȱŗşŞşǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȬȱȱĚȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ 56 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Ěǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱ£ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ phenology of protected seabirds (Bertram and Kaiser, 1993; Chastel et al., 1993; , Grémil- let and Boulinier, 2009; Montevecchi and Myers 1997). For example, declines in oceanic ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱŗşŞŖȱȱȱȱśŖȱ- cent reduction in the survival of red-footed booby and red-tailed tropicbird eggs and ȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŗşşşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ¢ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖşǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǻ¢ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȂȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱ- ȱȬȱȱȱȱŗŗȬŚśȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ The common murre has also exhibited a declining trend in reproductive success in the ȱȱ ǰȱĚȱȱ¢ȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱřŞȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱÛȱ¢ȱ ǻ£¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ȭ - son et al., 2011; Kovacs et al., 2010; Thomas and Laidre, 2011; Wassman et al., 2011), and ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǲȱěȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱ ǰȱęǰȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȦȱȱȱȱ densities than normal. Similar impacts are occurring for pinnipeds; harbor porpoises are appearing in northern areas and harp seals are being sighted in northern locations ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱǱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ - ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱ 2005). Polar bears are spending more time on land, resulting in declines in survival, ǰȱ¢ȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǲȱȱȱǰȱ ŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱ Ȭȱȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ resting platforms (Kovacs et al., 2010). These examples illustrate some of the challenges facing marine-protected-species managers in a changing climate.

3.3 Ecosystem Structure and Function

ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms 57

Case Study 3-D Loggerhead turtles and climate change

A great deal of uncertainty remains regarding ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ Ěȱ ȱ 2011). When prey items are scarce, mortality in- ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱ ě- ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ent geographic regions during their various life loggerhead nesting counts over the past several ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ exploit their environment for food as compared ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ to adults in their species, and as such, are consid- ȱǻȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ered more susceptible to oceanographic variabil- ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱ¡- ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǲȱǰȱŗşŞŗǲȱĴȱ amined potential impacts of future climate change ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱ- ¢ȱ ǻŘŖŗŗǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱĚȱȱȱȱ ger than average Gulf Stream current, helping ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ that the number of turtles that reach sexual ma- leading to increased productivity and population turity is strongly correlated to ocean conditions £ǲȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęǯȱ ȱ perform best under anomalously cold conditions. particular, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Therefore, available climate data indicate the po- ǻǼȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱǻǲȱ ęȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŚŖȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱŘǼȱěȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱǻȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯǯ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ

Adult loggerhead turtle (Photo: Sarah Dawsey) and juvenile loggerhead turtle (Photo: Steve Hillebrand). 58 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

species distributions and interactions are also beginning to create novel, “no-analog” ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ environmental change in the future. Although progress is being made in forecasting ȱǰȱ¡ǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ marine communities present additional uncertainty and challenges for natural resource ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱěȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ęǰȱ ęǰȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱ Ȭ- ¢ȱȱĜȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱãǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱǰȱȬȱěǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱĚ¡ǯȱ

Species interactions and trophic relationships ȱ¢ȱȱĚȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ of species interactions, including competition, predation, parasitism, and mutualism (re- ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱěȱǯȱ Environmental change can alter an organism’s physiology and behavior and, there- ǰȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ- perature and chemistry can alter the per capita feeding rate of an individual consumer ǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȂȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱǰȱŗşşşǼȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȂȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ £ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŘǲȱ ¢ǰȱ ŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ¢ǰȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ stress on predators and their prey can lead to altered species interactions (Yamane and Gilman, 2009); for example, due to temperature-related changes in metabolism, expo- ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ mussel prey (Sanford. 1999) until temperatures exceed thermal optima and feeding ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ¢¢ȱ ȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱĚ ȱ conditions (Large et al., 2011). Climate change alters species interactions via changes in the population density of ȱǯȱȱȱěȱȱě¢ȱȱȱ- ing increases or decreases in population abundance can trigger chains of indirect ef- ȱ ǻȂȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖşǲȱ £ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǲȱ ȱ ¡ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ disproportionately to maintaining community structure and ecosystem function (Paine, 1992); for example, the salt marsh grass Spartina patens reduces salinity stresses acting Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms 59

ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ these interactions are sensitive to environmental conditions, they may act as “leverage ǰȄȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ ǰȱŗşşşǼǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱ- ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻĴȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŚǲȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǲȱĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡¢ȱȱȱ ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ Climate-related shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species are altering ȱĴȱȱȬȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǯǰȱ 2010b). Analogous shifts in the vertical distribution of sessile intertidal species have in- ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ- ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ- part et al., 2003). Climate-related shifts in species dominance have also been observed ȱȱǯǯǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŖǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢- ȱ£ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ complex responses of marine species to environmental disturbance improves and coupled biophysical models of marine ecosystems become available, the ability to predict ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ near-term, observations and monitoring systems provide the best method of detection ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ¢Ȭȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ¢ȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ¢ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ- ȱȱĴǰȱŘŖŖŗǼǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ model complex ecosystem responses to climate change. 60 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Biodiversity The accelerating changes in species distributions resulting from climate change and as- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ in the composition and diversity of marine communities, leading to the potential for eco- ¢ȱ£ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǼǯȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱ through initiatives such as the Census of Marine Life (Fautin et al., 2010) in order to gain baseline understanding and monitor changes through time. Climate-related distribution shifts have already altered community composition and biodiversity of many sys- ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱǻ ěȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱ£ǰȱ ŘŖŖřǼǰȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱ ǯǰȱŗşşśǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱęȱǻȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǼǰȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱ and Veit, 2003). These changes in community composition are a function of both local ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱęȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ corresponded to gradual shifts from the mussel-dominated communities typical of such ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚ¢ȱȱȱȱǻ-

ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ2 seeps, cal- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȬȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ěȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖřȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱĚȱ ȱȱȱȱ£- ȱ ȱȱǻȱȱě¢ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ also support the hypothesis that marine biodiversity increases ecosystem stability and ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ¡¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǼȱȱ- ȱę¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢- tems, including impacts on resilience, stability, and the provisioning of the ecosystem ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱŚǼǯȱǰȱĜȱȱ ȱ ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱęȱǰȱȱǰȱ loss of biodiversity reduces ecosystem productivity and stability (Cardinale et al., 2011; £ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯ If species cannot migrate or adapt to a changing environment, they face local or even ȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ęǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms 61

ȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȬȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȬȱȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ degrades their preferred habitats and invasions occur from temperate regions. For ex- ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȃȄȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱŗŚȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ diversity and appear to have driven certain species locally extinct (Smith et al., 2011). Quantitative estimates of species losses based on historical comparisons, measured ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘȬśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ£ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖřǲȱȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŗşşśǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¡ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ (Purvis et al., 2000), but changing climate has contributed to several mass extinction ȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱ¢Ȃȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- mate is expected to exacerbate the impacts of these other drivers in the coming century ǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ

3.4 Regime Shifts and Tipping Points

As a result of environmental and ecological complexity in response to climatic and non- climate stressors, rapid changes in ecosystem structure and function are a particular area of concern. Evidence of rapid phase, or regime, shifts is emerging across diverse ǯǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǻ Ȭ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ gradually and continuously to changes in environmental conditions until a particular ȱ ȱ ȃȱ Ȅȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻěȱȱǰȱŘŖŖřǲȱěȱ et al., 2001, 2009). In many instances, these “replacement” assemblages are less desir- ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȬ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱ¢ȱřȬǼǯȱǰȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ecological, economic, and human social systems (Mumby et al., 2011b). Systems that ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ and are therefore more susceptible to climate-related regime shifts and tipping points ǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱĜȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ȭ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ Bay, eelgrass (Zostera marina) died out almost completely during the record-hot sum- mers of 2005 and 2010, evidently because too many days exceeded the species’ tolerance ȱ ȱ řŖǚȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱǻȱȱŘǼǰȱȱ¢ȱŚřȱȱȱȱȱŗşŞŖȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŖŖȱ 62 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

(Lindsay and Zhang, 2005). Coral reefs are undergoing rapid phase shifts from coral- dominated to macroalgal-dominated systems (Case Study 3-B) due to a combination ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęǰȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ Ȭ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖřǼȱȱȱŞŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱśŖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŖȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ Ȭ¡¢ǰȱȱ¢¡ǰȱȱ have recently emerged as a novel phenomenon due to changes in the timing and dura- ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ Ȭ¡¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱ ȱěȱ ȱęǯȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱ indicates that reducing non-climatic stressors such as overharvesting and pollution can ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ£ȬȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ

Case Study 3-E Cumulative impacts assessment

ȱȱȱȱȱ in driving overall impacts to marine systems. For ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ęȱ Ȭȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ or to the overall condition of a marine system in can dominate impacts over global sources; for ex- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ěȱ ȱ ǯȱ - ȱȱȬȱěȱȱȱȱ- tive Impact Assessments are designed to provide ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ- and can therefore be addressed in part through ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǻ ȱ 2011). Climate-related increases in precipitation ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱǱȱ ȱȱǯǰȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱȱ- ŘŖŖşǲȱ ȱ ȱ Ǳȱ ȱ ȱ ǲȱǰȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǰȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - some locations, non-climatic stressors represent ȱȱ ȱȬȱ¢ȱȱ the dominant impact (e.g., land-based stressors: hypoxia is increasing (CENR 2010, Doney et al., ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱęǱȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ 2012). In each of the regional assessments that have ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ - ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ęǰȱ ȱ Ȭ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ęȱ ȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms 63

Case Study 3-E (Continued)

Cumulative impact map of 25 different human activities on 19 different marine ecosystems within the California Current and impact partitioned into climate change impacts alone (n = 3 layers) and other stressors (land-based sources of stress (n = 9 layers), all types of fishing (n = 6 layers), and other ocean- based commercial activities (n = 7 layers). Figure adopted from Halpern et al., 2009b. Chapter 4

Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services

Executive Summary

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢- ǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȬęȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱěȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ climate change. ¡ȱěȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬ- ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱęǰȱěȱ¢ȱǰȱ- ism, human health, maritime security, transportation, and governance. ǯǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǻȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ ęǰȱ - ęȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ę¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ęȬȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ǯǯȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ indirect climate impacts on productivity and location; others stem from impacts that ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱęȬȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱęȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱǰȱęȱǰȱęȱ- ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ- tions are shifting; for others, climate-induced shifts in marine ecosystems have brought ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ

64 Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 65

ȱǯǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǯǯȱȱŞŜȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǯȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ful algal blooms that can extend the spatial or temporal scope of a bloom or release ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱęǲȱęȱȱȬȱȱ ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱřǼȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Species cultured in temperate regions, predominantly salmon and cod species have a ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱŗŝķǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱĜ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ to the salmon farming sector (DeSilva et al., 2009). On the other hand, certain aspects of ȱ¢ȱęȱȱȬȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ěȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ climate change and industry reaction to these changes involves an even larger number ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȬ ȱǯȱȱ critical factors include, but are not limited to, geographic location; local, regional, and international policies and regulations; the industry’s standards of ethical practice; and ȱ¢ȂȱĚȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȬȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱǯǯǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱŘǯŞȱȱȱȱȱǰȱŝǯśŘȱȱǰȱȱǞŗǯŗŗȱȱȱ travel and recreational total sales are supported by tourism (OTTI, 2011a, b). In addition, ȱŘŖŖşȬŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¡ȱěȱȱ¢ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱęǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ- man vulnerability and sensitivity in the future (McGeehin, 2007). These include, but are ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱ- ǲȱ¡ȱ Ȭȱǲȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǲȱ 66 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱȱȱȱ ǲȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǲȱȱ ȱȱǲȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱĚǯ Finally, security, transportation, and governance issues are also at play in terms of ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ the future of ocean governance, including marine resource and ecosystem-based man- ǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ accessibility in the Arctic. National security concerns and threats to national sovereignty ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ- ȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ- portunities for partnership and cooperation on local, national, and international scales ǻĴȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŖǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱěȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȬȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯ

Key Findings

ŗǯȲęȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ health, tourism, and maritime governance, are already being observed and are predicted to continue into the future. • ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȃǰȄȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȃǰȄȱȱȱ¢ȱ reduce the ability of humans to use the ocean in a given sector, and virtually all ěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǯ • ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę- ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȬȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰǯ • ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ • ȱȱȬȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱęȱ assets and resources as energy production moves from the traditional oil and Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 67

ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯ • In the face of climate change, impacts to marine resource distribution, variable ȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǲȱȱ ěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ mixed in others. • The scale and scope of climate impacts such as increased economic access and ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱǼȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ uses of the oceans in the future.

ŘǯȲȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ę¢ȱȱȱȱęǯȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¡- ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǯ

ŚǯȲ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ insight into societal responses and adaptation options. • ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ economic, and social systems in the future.

4.1 Introduction

The biophysical impacts of climate change on oceans described in Sections 2 and 3 also ěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱęȬ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱ¢ȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ- ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ- haviors, industries, infrastructure, and communities. This leads to one of the limitations 68 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

in our current ability to assess these socio-economic impacts: uncertainty regarding ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĴ- able to climate change. The direction of these changes may be clear but the rate and ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ clear. ȱȬȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ - ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ¢ǯȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱěȱȱȱ in marine resources that are clearly related to climate change, based on our current understanding of the biophysical impacts of climate change (see Sections 2 and 3 for more detail). ȱ ȱ ȃȱ Ȅȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ¢ȱ ȱ Ȭ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ - ęȱ ȱ ęȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȃȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯǯȄȱȱȱ ȱ ¢Ǳ

The ocean economy, the portion of the economy that relies directly on ocean attributes, in 2000 contributed more than $117 billion to American prosperity and supported well over two million jobs. Roughly three quarters of the jobs and half the economic value were produced by ocean-related tourism and recreation (Figure 4-1). For comparison, ocean-related employment was almost 1½ times larger than agricultural employment in 2000, and total economic output was 2 ½ times larger than that of the farm sector. (ǰȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱřŗǼ

The report also notes, “Standard government data are not designed to measure ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ prevented Americans from fully understanding and appreciating the economic im- ȱȱȱȱȱȄȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱřŗǼǯ As described in earlier sections, the physical changes in marine environments ex- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ lead to impacts on ocean organisms, such as shifts in the distribution of species, pop- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱǻȱ ȱřǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱęȱĚȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ critical for enhanced understanding of the socio-economic impacts of these changes Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 69

Figure 4-1 Value of the oceans. The ocean economy includes activities that rely directly on ocean attributed or take place on or under the ocean. In 2000, Tourism and Recreation was the largest sector in the ocean economy, providing approximately 1.6 million jobs (Source: USCOP, 2004).

ȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢£ȱȱ ȱ impacts of climate change on the socio-economic uses of marine resources. ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱęȬȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ exploitation of particular species in particular geographic environments, human popu- ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ geographic proximity to the human communities, as the distributions of those species ȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ to adapt either through increased vessel transit time, the migration of shore-side human communities, or both to stay in proximity to their “traditional” species of exploitation. ¢ǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱ crustaceans, being no longer viable in their present locations, or perhaps not being vi- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ¡- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǼǯ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱěȱȱ- ęȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ 70 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱěǰȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ from available data and information. The second approach is the construction of gen- ¢ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ronments. Finally, the implications of these changes for marine resource governance ¢ȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱǵȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯǯǲȱ ǰȱȱĴȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱȱȱ- rial and case studies for most regions has been included.

4.2 Climate Effects on Capture Fisheries

Fishing is a production activity that takes place under uncommonly uncontrolled ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱęȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱęǯȱ¢ǰȱȱę- ies, unlike most other types of economic production, we … have to make do with what nature decides to make available.. ǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱŗśŝǼ

ȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱǻȱŚȬŗȱȱŚȬŘǼǯȱȱęȱȱȱę¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȬȱȱęȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯǯȱ ȱȱǯǯǰȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ řȱ ȱ ŘŖŖȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘřŖȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱşŖȱ percent of the nation’s commercial harvest. In addition, individual states retain manage- ȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱ ȱřǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱşǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱę¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱǯ ȱȱ ȱěȱǯǯȱęȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ǰȱ ȱ ęȂȱ ȱ ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǲȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ęȬȱ - ǯȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȬȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 71

Table 4-1: 2009 economic impacts of the United States seafood industry

ȱȱ Jobs ȱǻǞŗǰŖŖŖǼ ȱǻǞŗǰŖŖŖǼ ǻǞŗǰŖŖŖǼ ȱ ŗǰŖŘşǰśŚŘ ŗŗŜǰŘŘŚǰśŚŞ řŗǰśśŜǰŜŚř ŚŞǰŘŞŘǰřŗş

Commercial harvesters ŗřśǰŚŜŜ ŗŖǰřŚşǰŚŚŜ řǰŚřśǰŖŘŝ śǰřŚŖǰŗŗŜ

Seafood processors & dealers ŗŞřǰŞşś ŘśǰŘŚŖǰŚŚŗ ŝǰşŜśǰŝŗş ŗŗǰŖŝřǰŘŚŖ

Importers ŗŝŞǰřŞŝ ŚşǰŖŝŖǰŚŝŜ ŝǰŞŜŚǰŚŞŖ ŗŚǰşśŞǰŞřŖ

ȱ ȱǭȱ ŚŝǰŚŖś ŜǰśŖśǰřŞř ŘǰŗřŝǰŝŗŚ řǰŖśŞǰŝŝŝ

Retail ŚŞŚǰřŞş ŘśǰŖśŞǰŞŖŘ ŗŖǰŗśřǰŝŖŚ ŗřǰŞśŗǰřśŜ

ǱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǯȱǯǯȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǯȱǯȱȬȦȬŗŗŞǰȱŗŝŘǯȱ

Table 4-2: 2009 economic impacts of recreational fishing expenditures

ȱȱ Jobs ȱǻǞŗǰŖŖŖǼ ȱǻǞŗǰŖŖŖǼ ǻǞŗǰŖŖŖǼ

ȱ řŘŝǰŗŘř ŚşǰŞŗŗǰşŜŗ ŗŚǰśŝŚǰŚŜŚ ŘřǰŗşŜǰŚŘŘ

For hire 17,217 ŗǰşŗśǰŚśŘ ŜŖŜǰşŞř 1,039,705 Private boat řŗǰŗŝŜ ŚǰŘŚřǰśŚŗ ŗǰŘśřǰŞŖŚ ŘǰŗśŞǰŚŗŚ Shore 35,293 ŚǰřŗŘǰŞśŖ ŗǰřŗşǰŞŜś ŘǰŘŚřǰŖřŜ ȱ ŘŚřǰŚřŞ řşǰřŚŖǰŗŗŞ ŗŗǰřşřǰŞŗŘ ŗŝǰŝśśǰŘŜŞ Retail ŚŞŚǰřŞş ŘśǰŖśŞǰŞŖŘ ŗŖǰŗśřǰŝŖŚ ŗřǰŞśŗǰřśŜ

ǱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǯȱǯǯȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǯȱǯȱȬȦȬŗŗŞǰȱŗŝŘǯȱ

ǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ on metrics, such as maximum sustainable yield (MSY), that depend on productivity, the ěȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱęȂȱ- ers respond to those changes. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȦȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȂȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱ ȱęȱ ǻ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǲȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱ ŗşşŖǰȱ ŗşşŗǲȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǲȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ę- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ 72 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱěȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱǻŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ on communities of out-migration, especially in rural areas (Lal et al., 2011). On the other ǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱęȬȱȱǻ- ȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱ¢ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱěǯȱ¢ȱȬȬȱȱȱęȱȱȱ exacerbate this trend, but the exact degree or even direction of any of these economic ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ Ǳȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ǲȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ al., 1999); and choices based on social and cultural factors. ȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ- ęȱȱǻȱȱĴǰȱŗşşŚǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ ȱ ǯǯǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻŗşşŞǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ ȱ ȱȱǞŚǯŜȱȱȱȱȱǞŘŖǯśȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǲȱ ǰȱȱȱ¡- ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱęȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭ ęęȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱǻȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǻȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱǰȱ and climate change).

Effects on the productivity and location of fish stocks ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱęȱǻȱȱřȱȱȱȱȱȱěǼǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱěȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱ ǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- port those populations, by altering primary productivity (Boyce et al., 2010; Sarmiento ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱřǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱęȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ- ȱřǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱęǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ- cies (Allison et al., 2011; Cooley and Doney 2009; Doney et al., 2009; Gaines et al., 2003; ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱãȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĜȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ę¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ěȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 73

ęȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱ- ęǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǲȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ¢ǰȱ ęȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱęȬȱǯȱ

Economic effects on commercial fisheries and fishing-dependent communities ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǻŘŖŗŗǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ę- ȱǻȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯǯǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱęȬȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱÛȬȱȱǻǼȬȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ¡¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ Section 2 for details on ENSO). ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǼȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱŜŖȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱǻȱęǼȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱŘśȱȱȱȱ¡ȬȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱęȱǰȱȂȱǻŘŖŖŗǼȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱ Bay for Albacore tuna (Thunnus alalungaǼǰȱȱȱǻOncorhynchus tshawytscha), ȱȱȱǻLoligo opalescensǼǯȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¡- ¢ȱśŖȱȱȱȱ¡Ȭȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻŗşŞŗȱȱŗşşşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱę¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡Ȭ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŘŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¡Ȭȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ę¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŞȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗǯşǚȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ (Sardinops sagax) and Northern anchovy (Engraulis mordaxǼȱęȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗǯŘǚȱȱȱ numbers of active vessels and ex-vessel prices (Dalton, 2001). 74 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

¡ȱȱěȱȱ¡Ȭȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱŗǯŘǚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡Ȭȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱŚȬȱȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱ¢ȱęȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Southern California. ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱ- ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱǼǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱęǯȱȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱǞŗŖȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻǞŖǯŖŝȱȱǯǯȱǼȱȱŘŖŘŖȱȱȱȱȱȱǞřŖŖȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻǞŗǯŝŞȱȱǯǯȱǼȱȱŘŗŖŖǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǞŝřŚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱśȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱ found that blue crab, Callinectes sapidusǰȱȱȱ¡ȱęȱȱęȱ ěǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ other crab species (Walther et al., 2009, 2010), and that commercially important crab ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱ¡ǰȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ęȱěȱȱěȱȬ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻ £ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ and perhaps most, commercially important species. ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱę¢ȱȱ ȱęȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱěǯȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱęȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ - ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǲȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŖǼǯ Ȭȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ¢ȱǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȦȱȱȱȱęǰȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯ ȱęȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ economic security (NRC, 2010b) and particularly to the potential negative impacts of Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 75

ȱęȱȱȱȱęȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ¢ȱȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱǰȱȃȱęȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱęǰȄȱȱȱȃȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- tribution to the total economic activity at a national and international level, the impacts ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȄȱ ǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŞşǼǯȱǰȱȱęȂȱȱȱȱę- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ǰȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱęĴǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǯ

Regional effects of climate change on fisheries ¢ǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȬȱěȱȱȬȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯǲȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱěȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ Ĝȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱĜȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǲȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱęǯ

ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ- munities and local economies depend on and are engaged in subsistence harvesting ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ- vironmental changes are already having a notable, although unpredictable and often Ȭǰȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ¢ȱŘŖŖşǲȱĴ¢ȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱǯ ȬȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱǻȱȱŘǼȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ 76 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱěȱȂȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ (Moore and Gill, 2011; Mueter et al., 2011) and has altered physical access to the region ǻǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ ¢Ȭǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ change are being experienced not directionally, but in terms of greater inter-annual and Ȭȱ ¢ȱ ǻ¢ǰȱ ŘŖŖşǲȱ Ĵ¢ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖşǲȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǲȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ£Ȭȱȱ ȱȬǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ- pendix A for a description of the extent of marine mammal subsistence hunting done in Ǽǯȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ and threaten local adaptive strategies, including times and modes of travel for hunting, ęǰȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱřȱȱȱǼȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȬȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱ ȱǯǰȱŗşşşǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻ - ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱřǼǯȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŖşȱ- sure produced a “perfect storm” for a food security crisis, especially in combination ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȬȱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱ Gerlach, 2010). Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 77

ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻ££ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǲȱ¢ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱĜȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǲȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ǲȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ as increases in diabetes and heart disease, depression, and alcoholism. Each of these ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱ ǯȱǰȱȱȬȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ precedent for action over long-term climate change impacts.

ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ PACIFIC. ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱę¢ǰȱȱ ȱŗŚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȬ related shifts in atmospheric conditions, ocean properties, and ecosystem interactions ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ěȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ¢ǲȱ ǰȱ Ĵȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ȱȱěǯȱȱ ŚȬřȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱęȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ number of researchers. ęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǻȱȱŚȬȱȱŚȬǼǲȱ ǰȱǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- sented in Appendix A.

ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę- ing grounds is guaranteed to these tribes through government-to-government treaties ǻȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŖşǼǲȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȃȱȱȄȱ ęȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ range shifts (Mantua et al., 2010), the implications for geographically-bounded tribal ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȃ¢ȱȄȱȱ ȱ temperatures and prey ranges shift (refer to Section 3 for more detail). Further informa- ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ change is presented in Appendix A. ¢ǰȱȬȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- tentially impacted by changes in the abundance and range habitats of targeted nearshore 78 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ - ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱŗřȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǰȱȱ Ǽǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ extraction of locally-caught seafood represents a coping strategy for such food insecurity, potential nearshore climate change impacts present livelihood and nutritional issues ȱȱȱȱȬȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯ

Table 4-3: Known or expected direction of social and economic impacts on some major northeast commercial and recreational species

ȱȱ

¢ȱȱȱęȱ Ambiguous

ęȱ Ambiguous

ęȱȱę Ambiguous but perhaps positive

ęȱ Ambiguous King and tanner Crabs Ambiguous

ȱȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱěȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǯ

ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯǰȱȱȱȱěȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ę¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻȱ¢ȱŚȬǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯ

ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱClimate change could have both direct and indirect ef- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱęȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǲȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻĴǱȦȦǯǯȦȦǲȱȱȱřǼǯȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 79

ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱȬȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ end of the 21st century. The loss of live corals results in local extinctions and a reduced ȱȱȱęȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱęǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǲȱȱȱ- ¢Ȭȱęȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱęęȱ¢ȱ- ȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȬȱęȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ

Case Study 4-A The effects of climate change on Pacific salmon

ȱȱȱęȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ - ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ě- ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱǰȱĚ¢ȱ£ȱ- mid-1970s to the late 1990s and has since been ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ ȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ - ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱĚ ȱ detrimental changes in the migratory timings of ȱȦ ȱĚȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- mer, higher average temperatures could diminish ments (Kovach et al. 2013). ȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ǰȱ thus increasing mortality. Warm- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ǻȱ Ǽȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ £Ȭ¢ȱ ȱ ǻ¢- ȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ determined early in marine life ȱȱȱ ȱȱ mortality typically sets year class ȱǻȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱ- dence of the actual impacts at these various life cycle stages is accumu- ȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ information on abundance binned by latitude across the exceptionally Chinook Salmon (Source: NOAA). 80 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Case Study 4-B The effects of climate change on pollock and Pacific cod

ȱ ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱęȱȱ This complicates the separation of the direct ice ȱ ¢ȱ ěȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ acteristics of the target species. These include the ȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱ ering the economic, institutional, and ecologi- ȱȱěȱ£ȱȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ Studies have found that although a north- ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęǯ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻŘŖŖŜȬŘŖŖşǼǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ colder than average years in the Bering ȱǻ ¢ȱȱěȱŘŖŗŘǲȱěȱȱ ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱǯȱǯǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ęȱ - ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ advantage over those in the south. The re- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱę¢ǰȱ ȱ is driven by the pursuit of valuable roe- ȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱĴȱ- ȱ ȱ ěǯȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ę¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ north for marginal increases in catchability. ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ both retrospective analyses and predic- ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱěȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱěȱŘŖŗŘȱȱěȱȱ ¢Ȃȱȱ ŘŖŗŘȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ- Local Cod Depletion Study (Source: NOAA).. ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ǯȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 81

Case Study 4-C The effects of climate change on Pacific sardine

ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - biomass decreases or if ocean conditions become ¢ȱ ¡ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖŖřǰȱ ŘŖŖŚǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ŘŖŖśǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ǲȱ - modeling capabilities on socio-economic impacts ¢ǰȱ ȱ Ȭ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡¢ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ potential scenarios that could occur in the Eastern ȱĚȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ęȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱǯǯȱęȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ in ocean temperature due to climate change is using an environmentally-based harvest control ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ rule to determine the annual harvest level. The ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ harvest control rule is intended to prevent over- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǯȱ ȱ ęǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ

Pacific sardine harvest-control rule implements a decreasing exploitation fraction in cool years based on a 3-year moving average of SST at Scripps Pier, San Diego, California. ‘Harvest’ is the guideline harvest level in metric tons (mt), ‘Biomass’ is current biomass estimate, ‘Cutoff’ is the lowest level of estimated biomass at which harvest is allowed (150,000 mt), and ‘Fraction (SST)’ is the environmentally-based percentage of biomass above the cutoff that can be harvested (Source: M. Dalton, pers. comm.). 82 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Case Study 4-C (Continued)

ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱǰȱ - ¢ȱěȱȱęȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ in Canada’s EEZ, and, depending on the extent of focus on their predators to expand along the entire ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱęȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱěȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱǯǯȱęȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ corresponding increase in economic activity and ¢¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ- The second scenario assumes that an increase ęȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯǯȱ in ocean temperature results in a northerly expan- ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ sion of the entire subtropical marine biota. This ȱ ȱ ęȬȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ economic value are expected.

ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ al., 2011a).1ȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱśŗȬşŚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŝȬŞřȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǲȱȱŗŚȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱśŘȬşŗȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ- ȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŝȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ¢ȱŝŖȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱȱȱǰȱ¡¢ȱřǯŘȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǲȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ as food (Bell et al., 2011b). Further description of expected climate change impacts to

ŗȲȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŘȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ ǼǱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ- ȱ ǰȱǰȱ ȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱ ǰȱǰȱȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ Futuna. Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 83

ȱęȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯ ȱǰȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǯǯǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱęȱȱǯȱ¡ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱǰȱȱęȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ - ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱęȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ- ȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȂȱ ¢ȱȱěȱȱę¢ȱȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȦȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ĝȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ from rising sea levels and more severe storms. ȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱęǰȱěȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ- ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȬǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱǰȱȱęȱ- ȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǼȱ ȱ ǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱȱŜǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱ

ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱGiven limita- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ Ĵȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ 84 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱ Ȭ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ activities. ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ - ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱęȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǱȱȃ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ŘŖŖśȬŘŖŖŜǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ ȱȄȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱŘŚȬŘśǼǯ ȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱǰȱ Ĵȱ ȱȱȱÛȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ increased headboat activity. ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ is provided in Appendix A.

ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę- ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱǰȱęȱȱȱ that depend on them, the most relevant changes are those occurring to the ocean of the ȱǯǯȱǻǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ǯȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱęȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱŚȬŚǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ŚȬȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Atlantic cod (Gadus morhuaǼȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱǰȱȱȱȱ- er (Micropogonias undulatusǼǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ęȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȃȱȱȄȱǻěȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱĜȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱěȱęǰȱȱ- ǰȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȬȱǰȱȱ economic and social impacts are potentially high (Cooley and Doney, 2009; McCay et al., ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱǻȱȱŚȬŘȱȱ¢ǯǼ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 85

Table 4-4: Known or expected direction of social and economic impacts on some major northeast commercial and recreational species

ȱȱ Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) Negative

ȱȱǻMicropogonias undulatus) Positive

Atlantic lobster (Homarus americanus) Ambiguous, but perhaps more negative

Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) Negative Blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) Negative

ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱěȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǯ

ęȱ ȱ ęȬȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱ ęǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ĚȱǻěȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱŘŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱ- ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ current coastline. In the Northeast, many smaller ports have already lost infrastructure ȱęȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱ ǰȱŗşşŗǼǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱę- ȱĚȱǻǰȱŗşşŝǰȱǲȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱŘŖŖřǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ Many challenges remain for assessing the social and economic impacts of climate ȱȱęǯȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱĜȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǼǯȱȱ ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĜȱ ȱ a clearer picture of biological impacts. Further description of expected climate change ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯ

Fisheries and communities adapting to climate change ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱęȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ 86 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Case Study 4-D The effects of climate change on Atlantic cod and croaker

ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱŗśȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ caught. ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ- ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǻŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱ ŚśŘǼȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȃǽǾȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ęǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǻŘŖŗŖȮŘŗŖŖǼȱ ȱ - positive impacts. mass of the population is forecast to increase by Cod are sensitive to increases in ocean tem- ŜŖȮŗŖŖȱǯȄȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱśŖȮŗŖŖȱȱ ǯȱ impacts varies. Some concern has also been voiced ȱęȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ that certain prey species may not move in synch ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱĜȱȱȱ- ȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱǻ ȱŗşşřǼǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǻǯǯǰȱǼȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ completely out of the Gulf of Maine (Fogarty et al., ǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖŖŞǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱǯǯȱȱęȱ (1999) and Loomis and Crespi (1999) note that ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ę¢ȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ - fect on a species, social and economic impacts can ǰȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ- ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ǽȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ of Maine to Argentina (ASMFC 2011), but in the ǯȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ - ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ĵǰȱȱȱǻ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖşǼȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ¡- mercial species, representing only 0.7 percent of pected to be negatively impacted by increasing total Mid-Atlantic landings revenue and 2 percent ȱęǯ of Mid-Atlantic landed pounds. but it is one of

ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȃȄȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱ ȱęȱ ȱ- ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱěǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ǰȱȱ¡- ǰȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ and protected areas that tie management choices to particular geographic areas may be ěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 87 time (OECD, 2010). ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ- ȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱŘŖŖşȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ - ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱĚǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ coral bleaching. ȱǰȱŞŜȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱŜŘȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŜŘȱȱȱȬȬ ȱȱȱȱȱřŗȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱęǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱęȱȬȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ farm products. Socio-economic factors, including age, gender, education, occupation, livelihoods, ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ceptions of their household’s vulnerability to certain types of extreme climate events. ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ household had a medium level of vulnerability across nearly all event types except for ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǯȱȬ- ic variables did not uniformly explain these perceptions across all types of events. More ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱŜŖȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȂȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡- ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱę- ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱ ȱŘȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȃȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȬȬȱ ȱ ȱ ¡Ȭ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ 88 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǼȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ to develop locally relevant, socially feasible, and sustainable solutions that can result in more climate-resilient communities.

4.3 Implications of Climate Change for Aquaculture

ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĝȱ ȱ ȱ ǻĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦ- ǯǼǰȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱǯǯȱȱŞŜȱȱȱȱǰȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ amounts of barramundi, seabass, seabream, and other species. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱ potential impacts of climate change on North America may include rising sea surface ǲȱȬȱȱȱ ȱĚȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱęǲȱȱ- ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǲȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱĚ ȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱę- ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǲȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱęȬȱęȱȱ

a net removal of CO2ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ ȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯ

Direct impacts of climate change ȱȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱęǰȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱřǼȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱ ŗŝȱ ķǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱĜ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 89

Silva and Soto, 2009). ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȬȱǯȱ ȱ - ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱŗŖȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ èȱȱ ǰȱŗşşŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱĜĴȱȱ ǯǰȱ ŗşşŞǼǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱ al., 2011).

Indirect impacts of climate change ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřǯŝŘȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱǰȱȱŜŖǯŞȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱǰȱȱŖǯŝŞȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱǰȱȱŝřǯŞȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ Ȭ ǰȱ Ȭǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱǯȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱ- est source being menhaden and the second-largest source coming from trimmings as- ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯ Due to climate change, biological productivity in the North Atlantic is predicted to ȱ¢ȱśŖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱŘŖȱȱǻĴǰȱ ŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱȱȱǻȱŘǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱęȱǯȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ęȱȱ ȱęȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ available. ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǰȱȱ 90 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¡¢ȱŚŖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ protein and lipid sources (Rust, 2002). Already, commercial salmon diets contain a frac- ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱǰȱęȱȱȱĜȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǯ

Ocean acidification and aquaculture ȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱǰȱȱęȱ¢ȱĚȱȱȱ ȱěȱęȬȱęȱǻȱȱřǼǯȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ęȱ ǻ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ coordination. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ to mitigate some global climate change impacts and provide a net reduction in ocean ęǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱ-

ęȱǰȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ2 and nutrients from the ocean ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ time, it merits further investigation.

Social impacts of climate change on aquaculture ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- culture industry is on human health. Seafood consumption may have a number of health ęǰȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱĚ¢ȱǰȱ reduced macular degeneration, reduced mental depression, and higher IQ, among oth- ȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱȦ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 91

ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ

4.4 Offshore Energy Development

Oil and gas ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱ industry and its consumers are facing compulsory adaptation to climate changes that ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱŚȬŘȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱȬȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¡- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȬ ǲȱȱȱ- cation; local policies and regulations; the company’s ethics; and their combined perfor- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢£ȱȱ understood in a broad context given that the oil and gas industry delivers oil and gas as ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱ

Figure 4-2 The number of days in which oil exploration activities on the tundra are allowed under the Alaska Department of Natural Resources standards has halved over the past 30 years due to permafrost thaw, which is disrupting transportation; damaging buildings and assets particularly pipelines; and increasing the risk of pollution. Operational costs are increasing for oil and gas companies (ACIA, 2004)

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȦȱȱĜȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱǯ ȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ěȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱ Administration announced a proposed Central Gulf of Mexico oil and gas and lease ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ergy Management (BOEM) in the Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. In addition, in 92 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Table 4-5: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management lease sales schedule, 2012-2017

ȱ 229 Western Gulf of Mexico 2012 227 Central Gulf of Mexico 2013 233 Western Gulf of Mexico 2013 ŘŚŚ ȱ 2013 225 Eastern Gulf of Mexico ŘŖŗŚ 231 Central Gulf of Mexico ŘŖŗŚ ŘřŞ Western Gulf of Mexico ŘŖŗŚ 235 Central Gulf of Mexico 2015 ŘŚŘ Beaufort Sea 2015 ŘŚŜ Western Gulf of Mexico 2015 ŘŘŜ Eastern Gulf of Mexico ŘŖŗŜ ŘŚŗ Central Gulf of Mexico ŘŖŗŜ 237 ȱ ŘŖŗŜ ŘŚŞ Western Gulf of Mexico ŘŖŗŜ ŘŚŝ Central Gulf of Mexico 2017

ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȂȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘȬŘŖŗŝȱȱȱŚȬśǯ

IMPACT FACTORS. ¢ǰȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻǰȱŘŖŖşǼǱ ŗǯȲ ȱȱȱȱǱ Changing rainfall amounts, availability ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ sustaining the production of oil and gas. ŘǯȲ¢ȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖȱȱŚŖȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴǰȱěȬȱǰȱȱ Ȭȱȱ - ter-treatment technologies. As an example of the impact of climate change on these ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ reached. Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 93

řǯȲ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǱ Not only are environmental conditions changing at most locations on the globe, but the oil and gas industry is also exploring poten- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯ 4ǯȲȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ǰȱ- ǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ and revenue drivers. Beyond the safety-driven increases noted above, insurance costs ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱŗŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱęȱǯ śǯȲȱȱȱǱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ

ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- dustry based on their particular climate change policies and regulations. Fish and marine ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĜǯȱȱǰȱȱ- ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǲȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ȱȱ¡ȱŘŖŖśȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱ platforms.

IMPACTS ON INDEPENDENT AND NATIONAL OIL AND GAS COMPANIES. In- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱŗŖȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ 94 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ěȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢Ȭ ȱȱȱǻ- ǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ limiting access to reserves, resulting in investments by independent oil companies in ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱǯ

ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ǯȱěȱȱȱȱě¢ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ- nies may feel direct impacts, such as on-site changes of environmental conditions, or ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱ impact of climate policies and environmental protections that restrict access to reserves,

Figure 4-3 Combined financial impact of climate policies and restricted access to oil and gas reserves (range of possible outcomes and most likely impacts) (Source: Austin and Sauer, 2002).

in addition to the development of resources in less accessible locations every year, is ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱŗȱȱŝȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱŚȬřȱ ȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǯ

ȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǱȱǼȱȱȱǰȱǼȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱǼȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǼȱǯȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ invest in alternatives to fossil fuels and develop cleaner and more sustainable energy ȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱęȱȱȱȬȱȱȬǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 95

ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ęȱ ȱ ¢£- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ performance (e.g., Asset Lifecycle Management; Acclimatise, 2009b). Also, companies ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȬ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯǯȱȱȱǰȱȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ turn, the global economy is expected to recover and lead to increasing levels of prosper- ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ insurance premiums, among other factors.

ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ The great dilemma that society and oil and gas ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱǻȱȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱěȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱǰȱ¡¡ȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱǻĴǰȱŗşşŘǲȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱěȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱęȱȱȱ Ȭȱ of the economy versus climate change impacts on society and ultimately the economy ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡- £ȱȱęǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ǻǰȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱĜȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱǻǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ Oil and gas companies are beginning to act on clear signals that climate change is un- ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŚȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȬȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱ¢Ȃȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱǱȱǼȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 96 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

gas industry or b) any adverse impact of the oil and gas industry on climate change. ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱ- Ǽǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȃ Ȅȱȱȱȱǯ

Renewable energy (wind, ocean waves, and currents) Although coastal and marine environments do not currently host commercial facilities ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱ and solar. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (then the Minerals Management Service) prepared a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS; BOEM, 2007) ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱǻȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ approved for development and several others have been proposed. Wave energy is most ȱȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱ- able area for ocean current development is the Gulf Stream along the southeast coast of ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ evaluated as mitigation measures because they do not directly result in emissions of ȱǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ǲȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱěȱȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱǱ ŗǯȲȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ stronger currents, or sediment erosion; and ŘǯȲȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ height, or ocean current intensity or direction. These changes could have either a ȱȱȱěǯ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ - ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱ 2011). ȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱę¢ȱȬ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǯǯǰȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ǲȱę¢ǰȱěȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ing industry. Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 97

4.5 Tourism and Recreation

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱȱǞŗǯŞȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗŚǯŗȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŗȱǻǯǯȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱŗŖŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ŘǯşȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ¢ǰȱŘǯŞȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱŝǯśŘȱȱȱȱǞŗǯŗŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ tourism (OTTI, 2011a, b). Coastal tourism and recreation is used to describe all tourism, leisure, and recreation- ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ- ditionally, infrastructure, including hotels, restaurants, vacation homes, marinas, dive shops, harbors, and beaches, is needed in coastal areas to support these tourism and rec- ȱǯȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱŘŖŖşȬŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǰȱǼǯȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ trips in paid accommodations or travel to destinations 50 or more miles from home, ȱȱȱŗǯśȱȱȬȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱǻǯǯȱȱǰȱ 2012). ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱǰȱŗşşŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ - er conditions, and extreme events such as typhoons and hurricanes are expected to pose ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¡ȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ these industries is still in its early stages. Many coastal and marine tourism and recreational activities depend upon favorable ȱȱǲȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- tures rise, preferred locations for these and other types of recreation and tourism may ȱȱ ǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ 98 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱǰȱȱȱĴǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ climate for more time throughout the year and others, such as Miami, Florida, to experience a decrease in desirability for tourism because of increased temperatures, except ȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ŘǼǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ seabird migrations, or Arctic cruise tourism. With changing sea surface temperatures, ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱěȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŝǼǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǲȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȬȱȱȱȬ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȬ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ surface temperatures increase, impacts upon cetaceans are predicted to include changes in species’ distribution ranges, individual occurrence and abundance, migration timing and length, reproductive success, mortality levels, and community composition ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ- bert et al., 2010). In some cases, operators may choose to move their business to a more ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ Ĝȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ changes there are predicted to be greater than in other regions. Cetacean species that cannot easily move as temperatures increase are expected to experience more severe impacts. Additionally, tours that focus on resident marine mammal populations that ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱę- ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ sea surface temperatures. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ¢ȱŚȬǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 99

ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǻǰȱ ŗşşŚǼǯȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱ- plications for local and state tax revenues. As a result, Morgan et al. (2010) estimated ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȬǰȱęǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŜřȱȱŝŖȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ red tide events during the previous year. Given that the geographic and temporal scale ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȬȬȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ physical environment occur, indicating that investments in educational and media mes- sages could be prudent expenditures.

4.6 Human Health

In addition to current and future climate change impacts on the biophysical and socio- ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ human health in a number of primary areas (Baer and Singer, 2009). In fact, according to ȱȱ ȱ£ȱǻ ǼǱ

Our increasing understanding of climate change is transforming how we view the boundaries and determinants of human health. While our personal health may seem to relate mostly to prudent behavior, heredity, occupation, local environmental expo- sures, and health-care access, sustained population health requires the life-supporting “services” of the biosphere. Populations of all animal species depend on supplies of food and water, freedom from excess infectious disease, and the physical safety and comfort conferred by climatic stability. The world’s climate system is fundamental to this life-support. (McMichael et al., 2003, page 2)

ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻ ǰȱ 100 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Case Study 4-E Economic impacts of the potential erosion of Waikiki Beach

ȂȂȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ General Excise Tax (GET) and Transient Accom- tourism destination and a popular recreational ȱ ¡ȱ ǻǼȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ŗȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ and 2). To supplement the secondary data, the re- ¡ȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ searchers subcontracted a visitor intercept survey shore of O’ahu, and is home to a number of ma- ȱ ¢£ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ¡¢ȱŚȱȱ- ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱřǯşȱ Beach. million room nights that generated approximately ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǞŗǯŘȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱǻŝŜȱƖȱȱȱǼȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱŞŞȱȱȱȱȂȱ ȱǻŘŚƖȱȱȱǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ ŞŚȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ Given the popularity and economic impor- ȱ ȱ ŚŘŞȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ şŖȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ been an ongoing concern. Recent recognition that ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǯȱśŞȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŗŚȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ provement Association commissioned a study to ȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Based on these survey results, an estimated ȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱ řŞǰŖŖŖȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ȃȱ ǻŘŖŗŘǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ- ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ crease in daily visitors, lost hotel room revenue is ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱǞśŖřǯŞȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ visitor expenditure related to food and beverage, potential loss in room revenue, other hotel rev- entertainment and recreation, retail and transpor- enues, such as those generated by food and bev- tation but excluding lodging, and the associated ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ

2007 Waikiki visitor expenditures and estimated losses with completely eroded beach

ȱ ȱ¡ȱ¢ ȱǻŘŖŖŝǼ ǻȱȱȱǼ

ȱȱ $1.2 billion ǻǞśŖŚȱǼ

Total expenditure (excluding lodging) ǞŚȱ ($1.5 billion)

ȱȱȱ¡ $5.2 billion ($2 billion) Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 101

Case Study 4-E (Continued)

ěȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱǞŜŜȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱěȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱĠǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱȱȱȱǞŗǯŚŝȱȱ ȱȱ These estimated impacts highlight the im- for expenditures other than lodging expenses. portance of beaches to the tourism industry in Applying the average daily expenditure per per- coastal states. Reducing these estimated losses in son per day for retail, food and beverages, trans- all regions should be a priority that could be ad- portation, entertainment, and recreation to the dressed through a variety of approaches such as ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ- erosion is estimated to cost nearly $2 billion per ȱ Ȃȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ year in overall visitor expenditures. Additionally, beach accommodations.

2007 Waikiki TAT and GET tax revenues and estimated losses with completely eroded beach

¢ȱȱ¡ ¡ȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻǼȱȓȱŝǯŘśƖȱ ǞŞŜǯŜȱ ǻǞřŜǯśȱǼ

ȱ¡ȱ¡ȱǻ ǼȱȓȱŚǯśŖƖȱ ǞŜşǯŞȱ ǻǞŘşǯŞȱǼ

Total ǞŗśŜǯśȱ ǻǞŜŜǯřȱǼ

ŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ Ȭȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ǲȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǲȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- nutrition; rising pollutant-related respiratory problems; and increased spread of infec- ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ Ȭǰȱ ȱ¢ȱǻ ȱŗşşşǼǯ

Health and vulnerability Complex social and ecosystem conditions inform the reach and range of climate change ěȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ must be evaluated in a larger socio-cultural context” (Baer et al., 2003:5). Although the 102 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ the role of climate change in determining health, especially because it merges theory and ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ research exploring connections among climate change, marine resource contamination ȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ to be marine resource users.

Waterborne and foodborne diseases ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱVibrio family, especially V. choleraȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱǯǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱVibrio species, including V. parahaemolyticus and ǯȱęǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱ ǯȱ ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱŚśǰŖŖŖȱ- nual cases of V. parahaemolyticus and 207 cases of ǯȱęȱȱȱǯǯȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱŚȬŚȱ ȱȱȂȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ highest concentrations of Vibrio infections are in the Mid-Atlantic states that surround ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱřŖśȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę- ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ Reported expansion of V. parahaemolyticus ȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱ

Figure 4-4 Number of cases of Vibrio infections by state and region, 2009 (Source: CDC, 2011). Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 103

¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱÛȱǻǰȱŗşşŞǲȱ£ȱȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ǰȱŘŘȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱV. parahaemolyti- cusǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯ ǯȱęȱis perhaps the most important pathogenic Vibrioȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ¢ȱ ŚȬǲȱ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱęȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŜŖȱ ȱǻǰȱŘŖŖśǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȬȱȱȱȱǯǯȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱǯȱę can be Ĵȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱřŚǯŞȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱęȱ ȱę¢ȱȱȱȱŖȱȱŗŝǯřȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱřŗȱȱȱȱǻȱ et al., 2011). Additionally, ǯȱęȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱęȬ- ed cuts, and seafood handling (Weis et al., 2011). One study reported that almost 70 per- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǰȱŗşŞşǼǯȱǯȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ temperature above 20oǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ Řȱȱȱ¢ȱŚȬǼǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ- cies, including toxigenic V. cholerae, ǯȱ ę, and V. alginolyticus (Lipp, 2011). Al- ȱȱęȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱĜȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯ In addition to members of the Vibrio family, a number of other marine pathogens also ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱAeromonas hydrophila ȱȱ ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǰȱ 2002). Myobacterium marinumȱǰȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱŘŖŖȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢Ȭȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ Ȭȱ¢ȱ (Dobos et al., 1999). Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae is found in diverse animal species in- ȱęȱȱęǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȃȱȂȱȄȱȱȃȱȄȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ¢ǰȱ 1999). Increased rates of infection have been documented for these emerging diseases. 104 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Case Study 4-F Spread of Vibrio cases throughout the U.S.

ȱǯǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱV. vul- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŗȱȱŘŖŗŖȱ ęȱȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ing cause of death from seafood consumption in ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ peratures because ǯȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖoC marine environments, seafood safety, and human ǻ£ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ - health. Based on the Foodborne Disease Active ȱ ȱǯȱęȱbecause the bacterium ȱ ȱǻǼǰȱ ȱȱ is naturally present in marine environments and population-based surveillance in ten states, the ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ CDC reported an increase in ǯȱ ę food- ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ - ȱȱȱŝŞȱȱ ȱŗşşŜȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ŘŖŖŜǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱĜȱȱȱȱ ȱ Gulf of Mexico as a result of high consumption to discover possible sources of ǯȱęȱand to ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǻǰȱ ŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŗşşŞǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱęȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯ surveillance-based reports in 2009 and 2010, the CDC reported that the incidence of Vibrio infec- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱǻŞśȱǼȱǻǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ¡ȱ

Analyzing oysters for presence of V. vulnificus (Source NOAA). experimentally introduced V. vulnificus (Source: NOAA). Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 105

ȱǯȱę, each of these pathogens has the potential for increased rates of infec- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯ The cases noted here indicate that a range of other Vibrio and non-Vibrio pathogens ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ǰȱĚǰȱȱȱęȱǻǰȱ 2005). In addition, focused development of hydrological and ecological modeling using ¡ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ

Harmful algal blooms and climate change ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǰȱ ŘŖŗŘǲȱ ěǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱȱřǼǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ- ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ęǰȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱřǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ¡Ȭȱęȱȱęǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǯȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱęȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱȱȱǰȱęǰȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȬ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱŚȬśǼǯȱȱǰȱ- though critical to protect public health, can reduce the availability of important sources of nutrition and/or income to communities that depend on the impacted resources. The ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱǞŞŘȱȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŜǼȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ listed above are included in this estimate. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ -

ȱǰȱęǰȱȱ2; alteration of currents or hydrology; and changes

Figure 4-5 Harmful algal bloom (Source: NOAA, n.d.). 106 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱǻȱȱŘȱȱǼǯȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢¢ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱ- ȱě¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱřȱȱǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ¢ Ǽǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢¡- ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȬȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱǯȱ ¢ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱĴȱ ȱ¡¢- ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǰȱŘŖŗŘǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱ (Miller et al., 2010b). ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- mental conditions are suitable for blooms to occur. For example, in Puget Sound, as in ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱAlexandrium ǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǰȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱŜǼǯȱȱ¡ȱĚȱȱȱ- ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱęȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Ěǰȱ Gambierdiscus, living on macroalgae on tropical hard substrates, espe- ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱęǰȱȱȱęȱȱǻǼǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǲȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ not the incidence. ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱěȱ¡ȱȱ- ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱě¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ

cases, it increased as CO2 increased (Fu et al., 2010; Sun et al., 2011). ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢- ȱǰȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 107

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱ¡ǯ

Health risks related to climate impacts on marine zoonotic diseases A global analysis of trends in infectious diseases found that emerging infectious disease ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻŝŘȱǼȱ- ȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ£ȱ- es by prolonging the diseases’ transmission periods and by changing geographic ranges ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱřȱȱȱȱ and examples of the potential impacts of climate change on disease in marine animals). Zoonotic diseases that occur in marine animals are among those of concern for hu- ȱǯȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǲȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ŘŖŖśǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĝȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ infectious organisms have been seen. For example, Lacazia loboi is a cutaneous fungus that has been reported to infect humans and dolphins in tropical and transitional tropi- ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ (Rotstein et al., 2009). To detect such changes, continued monitoring and assessments of disease in marine animals to establish baselines and identify trends is critical. Further- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ human health. Some coastal and tribal communities depend on marine animals as traditional sourc- ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ Ȭȱ food supply.

Health risks of extreme weather events ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱȱŘȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ Ǽǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱ- ing but not limited to heat exhaustion and other heat-related illnesses (Bernard and Mc- ǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǰȱ ŘŖŖŗǲȱ£ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǼǰȱȱȱȱǻěȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŜǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȬȱȱ£ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŘǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ Glass et al., 2000; Parmenter et al.,1999). 108 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Globalized seafood and emerging health risks ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŞŖȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱęȱǻǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱŗřǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱŗŜŖȱǰȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ¢ȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ health through regulation and supervision of food safety, excluding oversight of most meats, poultry, and processed egg products, directly inspects only a small percentage of the nation’s imported seafood. In 2007, for example, the FDA reported almost 900,000 ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŗŚǰŖŖŖǰȱȱȱŘȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ Ĝȱǻ Ǽȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȃȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȄȱǻȱŗşşŜǰȱȱŘǼȱȱȱǯǰȱȱȱȱȃȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȄȱǻ ǰȱŗşşŞǰȱȱŘȬřǼǯȱ ȱ ŘŖŖŚǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȂȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ bacteria such as Salmonella, Campylobacter, verotoxin producing E. coli, and listeria, parasites such as Toxoplasma gondii, Cyclospora cayetanensis, and trichinella, and viruses such ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢¡ȱ ǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱŗşŞřȱȱŗşşŘǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŗşşŝǼǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŜǰȱ ȱȬȱȱȱ ęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ- tion of imported seafood. For example, tested salmon, shrimp, and tilapia samples from ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŗŘȱ ȱ found that 17.5 percent of the samples tested positive for Salmonella, 32.2 percent for ShigellaǰȱŚǯŗȱȱȱListeriaȱ¢ǰȱȱşǯŚȱȱȱEscherichia coli (Wang et al., 2011). Similarly, tests of over 12,000 imported and domestic seafood samples over a nine-year period found that the incidence of Salmonellaȱ ȱŝǯŘȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗǯřȱȱȱȱȱǻ ĵȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱ¢ȱ results suggest that a high potential for infection in imported seafood (Love et al., 2011). ȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ǯȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 109

ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ source of environmental health concern (Loring and Gerlach, 2009). Many of these com- ȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ - holm Convention addressed, from military dump sites and a variety of other sources ǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱǻ ȱȱ ě¢ǰȱŘŖŖřǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱ

Acidification and other unknown human health risks ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ challenge to marine life and marine resource users (NRC, 2010a). Although scientists ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęǰȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȃȱȱȱ ȱ ǽȱęǾȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ for income and sustenance. There is thus a need to assess vulnerability and adaptation ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȄȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŗŗşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȬȱȱȬȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱ result in negative impacts on important food sources for communities in coastal regions that rely on marine resources for sustenance.

4.7 Maritime Security and Transportation ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢Ȭȱǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ arena is the increase in shipping accessibility in the Arctic. National security concerns ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱǻǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ expanded geopolitical discussion involving the relationship among politics, territory, ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱǰȱ ŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱȱśǯŚǯŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ climate change on these sectors. 110 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

4.8 Governance Challenges ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- der assumptions of stable environmental conditions that are similar to observed historical experience (Peloso, 2010). In many instances of greater climate variability or climate ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ need to revise our current management approaches and, in some cases, to restructure governance systems for most ocean uses. While governments can employ technologies ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ that implement them to deal assessing, planning and responding to negative impacts, ȱȱȱǻ ¢ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ Sciences has repeatedly called for early, active, continuous, and transparent community ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢Ȭ ȱ ȱ ǻǰȱ ŗşşŜǰȱ ŘŖŖŖǰȱ Ǽȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡- perts (Fischer, 2000). This broader, more inclusive governance approach is ever more important as marine resource users and coastal communities: 1) increasingly adapt and ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱȱŘǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- sions, especially those resulting in changes in marine resource management decisions and policies. The governance needs of ecosystem-based management may dovetail ȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ addressed as as a result of climate change. These challenges are most apparent in the ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ other maritime uses.

Fisheries management in the U.S. ȱěȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ę¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱęȱȱȱ- ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱ ǰȱȱę¢ȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ federal government, represented by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). Management plans from the Councils are designed to meet ten National Standards ǻǼȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȂȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǻȱ ǰȱ ȱ śǰȱ ȱ ŜŖŖǯřŗŖǻǼǼǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱ economic, or ecological factors (MSA, page 10, section 3(33)). This optimum yield is the basis for caps on total harvest or Annual Catch Limits (ACLs). ACLs are established by Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 111

ȱęȱȱȱĴȱǻǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱę- ǯȱǰȱȱȱȃǽǾȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¡ȱǲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȄȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ An additional factor that Councils must consider is changes in bycatch. When shifts ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĴǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵǯȱ ȱ ¡ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ę¢ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱŜǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱǰȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱǰȱȱ¢ȬȬ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŚǯŘȱ Ǽǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȬȱȱ assessment methods. Climate change is expected to alter the basic population dynam- ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ no longer appropriately cover the range of the species, perhaps leading to an assessment ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱę- ǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ uncertainty generated by climate change exacts a cost through the TAC- and ACL-set- ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱŚȬ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱęȱęȱȱȱǯǯ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ- ¡ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȬ ȱęȱȱǻȱȱȱȱȱŜǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ- ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǻ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ 112 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Case Study 4-G Fisheries management responses to climate change

ǯǯȱ ęȬȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ large urban centers to small rural outposts. They ȱȱȱęȱȱȱǻĴȱȱǯǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ £ȱ ȱ ǰȱ 2005). types of gear used, and level of involvement in ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ęȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱȦȱȱę- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ing. Fishing-dependent communities may have ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ęȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǻȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱęȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ sons, including income, adventure, family tradi- ȱ ěǲȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŗşŞşǲȱ critical to a spiritual ritual; and nutritional costs. ȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ŗşşŘǲȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ŘŖŗŖǲȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ ŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ǰȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ industry supported approximately 1 million full- economic stability, food security, and opportuni- ȱȬȱȱȱȱǞŗŗŜȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭ ȱ ęǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱǞřŘȱȱȱǰȱȱǞŚŞȱȱȱ- ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ue added. Recreational angler expenditures con- ęȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱ ǞśŖȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ¢ȱ ate throughout the economy and society though ȱȱȱřŘŝǰŖŖŖȱȱǻȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǲȱ 2010). ȱȱȱŗşşşǼǯȱěȱȱȱȱ Many socio-economic impacts of climate ęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ- ěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱ ȱ ǻ ȱ ŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱ ȱ řǼǯȱ Changes in marine target populations also af- ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ result from changes in the productivity and loca- ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ǻȱ ŘŖŗŖǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ problems (Lubchenco and Petes 2010) and build the broader ecosystem (Sumaila et al., 2011). Due Ě¡¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǲȱ ¢ȱ ȱ to strong temperature sensitivity (Fogarty et al., ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱǻGadus morhua) are expected to ęȱ ȱ ǻȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ǰȱ ęȱ decrease in biomass and largely move north out ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǯǯȱ ǯȱȱȱǻMicropogonias un- ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ dulatus) are expected to increase in biomass and ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ǻ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ 2010). Rising temperatures may cause decreases ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻTheragra chalcogramma) bio- ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǻ ¢ȱ ȱ ěǰȱ ŘŖŗŘǲȱ ěǰȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǯȱęȱȱǻSardinops sagax) productiv- ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ Ěȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ǲȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 113 greater investment in monitoring and assessment to reduce the level of uncertainty and ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱǻȱȱśǼǯȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖřǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱĚ¡ȱȱǯ

Offshore energy development ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱĚǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ- vere operating conditions, and more sensitive species and ecosystems. In addition, rou- ȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¡ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱȱę- ȱȱěȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŜȱ ȱȱ¡ȱŘŖŖśȱȱ season in the Gulf of Mexico.

Tourism and recreation ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ęȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱǰȱȱȱ by the governance structures in each of these sectors in response to climate change are ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ safety of life at sea as tourists and cruise vessels venture into higher latitudes and un- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȬǯȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ cooperating to increase governance measures in this area.

Human health ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ 114 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯǯȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ Ȭǰȱȱ¢ȱǻ ǰȱŗşşşǼǯȱ Many agencies at the international, national, state, and local level in each country de- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ adaptive means to respond to these changes.

Strategic planning ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ipate changes and develop strategies for responses to the present and future challenges ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱęȱ ǰȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ- ries are expected to disappear under a rising sea level, individual villages, communi- ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ǰȱřŗȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ

4.9 Research and Monitoring Gaps

ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ- mate change on ocean services that are important to the economic, social, cultural, and ȱ Ȭȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱę- cant changes have not yet been observed but are expected to be seen in both the short ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱǻǰȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱ¢ȱȬȱěȱȱ climate change have yet to be studied. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱ research must be performed and incorporated into public and private sector responses locally, nationally, and internationally. The use of time series data for both social and economic indicators of human community vulnerability and resilience (Charles et al., ŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱ ȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱę¢ȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱ ȱȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ necessary to provide a much fuller understanding of both the biophysical and human dimensions of climate change. Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 115

ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ- mate change is resulting in marine environment and human community-level changes and associated alterations to human uses of the ocean and ocean services. Researchers ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱ ęȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǰȱŘŖŖřǲȱ- ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ ÇȬǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ£ǰȱŘŖŖřǼǯ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱ- standing of social and economic impacts of climate change. Grafton (2010), for instance, ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱǯȱ¡ȱ£ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ

Socio-economic impacts for commercial and recreational fisheries ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȬ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱęȱȱęȬȱǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ • ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȬȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ social science research on both the social and economic indicators of community ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱę¢ȱǯ • ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱęȱȱęȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱĴǰȱ 2009). • ȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱęǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱę- tion scenarios in marine environments. • ȱȱȱȱĚȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȬ ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ Integrated Ecosystem Assessment programs, even though these assessments are ȱęȱȱȱ¡ȱǰȱǰȱȱ- ical relations that call for greater interdisciplinary perspectives and policy based ȱȬȱȱǻĴǰȱŘŖŖŗǲȱĴȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŖǼǯ 116 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

• ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ expenditures related to adaptation and mitigation.

Subsistence fisheries ȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ- ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǲȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱĴȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ǰȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯ • ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ communities have for adapting to climate change; • Improving understanding of the ability of subsistence-dependent communities to predict local climate, social, biological, and economic trends; • ȱȱȱĚ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱ of climate change; • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ - edge (TEK), including the establishment of community-based monitoring ǲ • Development of protocols that ensure appropriate inclusion of TEK into biolog- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǲ • ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȬȱ- gies that bring subsistence-resource users into discussions of climate change adaptation strategies; and • ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ě¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱ on subsistence harvests.

Offshore energy development In order to advance our understanding on the impacts of climate change on the oil and ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǯǯǰȱǰȱŘŖŖşǰȱǲȱĴȱŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǱ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ- ness models to inform industry participants as they adapt to climate change; • Addressing both the impacts of extreme events and the impacts of incremental ȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ (Acclimatise, 2009a); • ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱ Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean and Ocean Services 117

ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǲ • Conducting research at the level of individual corporations to evaluate appro- ȱȱȱǲȱ • ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- tions and thus more easily incorporate change into operations.

Tourism and recreation ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ this research is for the institutions and infrastructure that support coastal tourism and ȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱȱǯ In many areas further information is needed to determine the impacts of climate ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯǰȱȱȱ Ǳ • ȱȱȬȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǲ • ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ change through policy and management actions (Pallab et al., 2010); • Development of agreements, institutions, and capabilities that ensure the safety ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ- ating environments; and • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ

Public health ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǱ • ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǲ • Enhanced protocols for testing domestic and imported seafood for toxins and infectious agents that may increase as a result of climate change; • ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ marine sensors for monitoring, updating public health surveillance systems, and ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǲ • Development of coupled socio-economic and biophysical models that can assist ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ blooms; and • Case studies of both individual species targeted for seafood poisoning and of 118 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Ȭȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬěȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱǯ

4.10 Conclusion

ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȬȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȬǰȱǰȱȱȱěǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ǵȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǵȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ climate-change planning and policy? To meet the challenges of climate change in general, and climate change impacts on ocean services in particular, broad, interdisciplinary ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ`ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ Chapter 5

International Implications of Climate Change

Executive Summary

ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱǯȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱřȱȱŚǰȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ some stage of their life cycle and are of conservation concern. As climatic changes become more apparent, and the rate of change potentially increases, habitats and species ȱ ȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ that other species and populations remain robust and resilient to the changes that are ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱĴǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱęȱȱ£ȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱȱęȱ¢ǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱŗŘȱȱȱȱǯǯȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱśǯřǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱę- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱ- ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ- mental conditions and a stable decision environment such as a convention or treaty. Security and transportation issues are at play in terms of expected climate change ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ issue in this arena is the increase in shipping accessibility in the Arctic. National security concerns and threats to national sovereignty have also been a recent focus of at- ȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ lead to an expanded geopolitical discussion involving the relationships among politics,

119 120 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱ Callaghan, 2000). ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ in providing coordination and direction; therefore, international collaboration is both fundamental and foundational to understanding and managing climate change in the ǯǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ address climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and communities around the ǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ě¢ȱ ȱ ȱ implement adaptation actions.

Key Findings

řǯȲȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ- ȱ£ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱǯ • ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱĚ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ changing circumstances, particularly unanticipated, climate-driven changes in ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ to be strengthened or enhanced.

ŚǯȲȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ long term. International Implications of Climate Change 121

• Changes in available shipping lanes in the Arctic created by a loss of sea ice have generated an expanded geopolitical discussion involving the relationship among politics, territory, and state sovereignty on local, national, and international scales. śǯȲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- tential to be a transformational tool in the implementation of improved coastal policy and management. • A number of countries including Indonesia, Costa Rica, and Ecuador have iden- ęȱȃȱȄȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ and approaches.

5.1 Implications of Climate Change in International Conventions and Treaties

A number of international treaties and conventions have been developed to aid in ad- ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ- cus either primarily on marine resources or involve them in some fashion. Exploring ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡- ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱĴȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱ ȱ discussion includes only a subset of the larger body of international conventions and treaties.

Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) The Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) of Wild Animals is the only global, intergovernmental convention that is established exclusively for the conservation and man- ȱȱ¢ȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ species spends any part of its life-cycle (Robinson et al., 2005). Species are listed under ȱȱǱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ- ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱ¢Ȭȱěǯȱȱ ǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǻȱȱśȬŗǼǯ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ- tant opportunity to develop climate change strategies at the international level, a num- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- logical Diversity (CBD), the International Whaling Commission (IWC) and the Ramsar ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ 122 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

climate change issues and has given rise to a number of policy reports on species vul- ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȦǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ

Table 5-1: Marine species with U.S. ranges listed in CMS Appendices

¡ Taxa

ȱȱǻMegaptera novaeangliaeǼǰȱ ȱȱǻȱ¢), I Mammals Blue Whale (ȱ), Northern Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialisǼǰȱȱęȱȱȱǻEubalaena japonica)

Short-tailed Albatross (Phoebastria albatrus), Bermuda Petrel (Pterodroma cahow), I Birds ȱȱǻPterodroma sandwichensisǼǰȱȬȱ ȱǻĜȱ creatopus)

Sperm Whale (Physeter macrocephalus), Sei Whale (ȱ), Fin I/II Mammals Whale (ȱ¢), West Indian Manatee (Trichechus nanatus)

I/II Birds Steller’s Eider (Polysticta stelleri)

Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas), Loggerhead Turtle (ĴȱĴǼǰȱ ȱ I/II Reptiles Turtle (Eretmochelys imbricate), Kemp’s Ridley Turtle (Lepidochelys kempii), Olive Ridley Turtle (Lepidochelys olivaceaǼǰȱȱȱǻDermochelys coriacea)

ȱȱǻCetorhinus maximusǼǰȱ ȱȱȱǻCarcharodon carcharias), I/II Fish Manta Ray (Manta birostris) Beluga Whale (Delphinapterus leucas)

ȱǻMonodon monocerosǼǰȱȱĴȱȱǻȱĴ), Spinner Dolphin (Stenella longirostris), Striped Dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba), II Mammals Killer Whale (Orcinus orcaǼǰȱȂȱȱȱǻȱ), Northern ĴȱȱǻHyperoodon ampullatus), Bryde’s Whale (ȱ), Dugong (Dugong dugong)

ȬȱȱǻPhoebastria nigripes), Laysan Albatross (Phoebastria immutabilisǼǰȱȬ ȱȱǻThalassarche melanophris), Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta), Salvin’s Albatross (Thalassarche salvini), White-chinned II Birds Petrel (Procellaria aequinoctialis), Spectacled Petrel (Procellaria conspicillata), Roseate Tern (Sterna dougallii), Arctic Tern (Sterna paradisaeaǼǰȱĴȱȱǻSterna albifrons)

ȱȱǻRhincodon typusǼǰȱęȱȱȱǻIsurus oxyrinchusǼǰȱęȱ I/II Fish ȱȱǻIsurus paucus), Porbeagle (Lamna nasusǼǰȱ¢ȱęȱǻSqualus acanthias), Green Sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris) International Implications of Climate Change 123

Figure 5-1 First short-tailed albatross chick to hatch outside Japan. (Source: Pete Leary).

The Zoological Society of London has also developed and tested a climate change ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȦȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱ of the Appendix I species. Of these, approximately 50 percent are marine species. Re- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱǻȱśȬŘǼǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŗȱȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȬ- ȱ £ȱ ǻ Ǽǰȱ Ȭȱ £ȱ ǻ Ǽǰȱ ȱ - ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȦȦŗŝȦ ǯŗŘǼȱȱȱǰȱǱ • ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǲ • Establishing long-term datasets and baselines of species listed under CMS, as ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǲ • ȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ spatio-temperal scales including transport routes, etc.,for use in the planning of ȱ¢ȱǲ • Focusing on populations that are resilient and adaptive to climate change; • £ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǲ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ to migratory species if sites are not carefully selected; • £ȱȱ¢ȱěǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ 124 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢Ȭȱȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱęǲ • Continuing to address research needs related to emerging issues including disease, invasive species, and ecosystem changes; • Building capacity at the local level through climate change literacy training, participatory monitoring, and incentive creation for conservation among communities; • Integrating climate change policies in more Multilateral Agreements and ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼǰȱ ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱǯ

Table 5-2: Marine species under CMS with U.S. Ranges vulnerable to climate change

¢ Taxa

Green Turtle (Chelonia mydasǼǰȱ ȱȱǻEretmochelys imbricate), Kemp's Reptiles Ridley Turtle (Lepidochelys kempii), Loggerhead Turtle (ĴȱĴ), Olive Ridley Turtle (Lepidochelys olivaceaǼǰȱȱȱǻDermochelys coriacea)

ȱęȱȱȱǻEubalaena japonica), Northern Atlantic Right Whale Mammals (Eubalaena glacialisǼǰȱ ȱȱǻȱ¢), Blue Whale (ȱ musculusǼǰȱ ȱǻMonodon monoceros)

Short-tailed Albatross (Phoebastria albatrus), Bermuda Petrel (Pterodroma cahow), Birds Steller's Eider (Polysticta stelleri)

Sperm Whale (Physeter macrocephalus), Sei Whale (ȱǼǰȱ ȱ Medium Mammals Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)

Medium Fish ȱȱǻCetorhinus maximusǼǰȱ ȱȱȱǻCarcharodon carcharias)

ȱȬȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ - dangered remain robust and resilient to the changes predicted to occur throughout the ȱȱǻȱȱĴǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ

Convention on Wetlands of International Importance (Ramsar) ȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȃ ȱ International Implications of Climate Change 125

ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱǰȱ- priate policies and legislation, management actions, and public education; designate ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȃȱȄǼȱ ȱȱȱěȱǲȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ¢ȱ ǰȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ěȱ Ȅȱ ǻĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǼǯȱ ¢ȱ ŘǰŖŖŖȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱřŖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯ Ȧȱ ȱȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱ£ȱ¢ȱǯȱ¢ȱ of these are particularly important habitats for ocean and marine species, and include, ȱǱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǲȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǲȱȱȱ ǲȱȱ ǲȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱěǼǯȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ

Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) of Wild Fauna and Flora ȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǯȱ¡Ȭ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ěȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ¡Ȭ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ be if trade is not regulated, and Parties may trade in these species as long as trade is not detrimental to the species’ survival. Appendix III species are listed unilaterally by Par- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱŗśȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŘȱȱȱȱȱŜŘȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱǱȱȱǰȱȬȱęǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱŘŖŗŘȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱĚ¡ȱ enough to accommodate the consideration of climate change in each of its six processes or mechanisms.

Inter-American Convention (IAC) for the Protection and Conservation of Sea Turtles ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ (see Section 3). It promotes the protection, conservation, and recovery of the populations 126 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȬǰȱȱȱ characteristics of the Parties (Article II, Text of the Convention). These actions should ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯǯȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ support to emerging collective adaptation action for marine turtles. In 2009, the Parties agreed to a number of actions to address the impacts of climate ȱȱȱȱę¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ bycatch and non-climate impacts on nesting beaches.

Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) ȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱŗǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱŘǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱřǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱŗşşŘȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Řşǰȱŗşşřǯȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱĴȱǯȱ- cording to the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment2ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ change is already forcing biodiversity to adapt either through shifting habitat, changing ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - rine ecosystems, including their genetic and species diversity, is essential for the overall ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ and in adapting to climate change. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŚŖȱȱȱ¢ȱ

ŘȲȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ęȱȱȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ Ȭǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗǰřŜŖȱ¡ȱ ǯȱ ȱęȱȱȱȬȬȬȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱ- systems; the services they provide; and the options to restore, conserve, or enhance the sustainable use of ecosystems. International Implications of Climate Change 127

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȦřřȱǻ¢ȱȱ- mate ChangeǼȱ ǻĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȬŗŖȬȬřřȬǯǼǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱŗŖȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱǰȱ among other things, to “Enhance the conservation, sustainable use and restoration ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱ- tion on Wetlands and the Convention on Biological Diversity.”

5.2 Climate Change Considerations in Other International Organizations

Agreement for the Conservation of Albatross and Petrels (ACAP) The Agreement for the Conservation of Albatross and Petrels (ACAP) is an inter- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ and petrels through coordination of international activity. The development of ACAP began in 1999 under the auspices of the Convention on the Conservation of ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱ ¢Ȭ ȱȱȱȱȱ seven species of petrels are currently listed under ACAP. ȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ titled Impacts of Global Climate Changeǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ change on the conservation status of albatrosses and petrels. Despite this, pub- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǲȱ- ǰȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ on albatross and petrel population trends.

International Whaling Commission (IWC) ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ£- ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱǰȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǲȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ- ǲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǲȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǲȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǯ 128 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Figure 5-2 Sperm whale rolling onto its side (Source: Stephen Tuttle).

Climate change and its impacts on cetacean species have been highlighted in dis- ȱȱȱ ȱęȱĴǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȦŜŗȦŗŜȱȱ Consensus Resolution on Climate and Other Environmental Changes and Cetaceans at the 2009 ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ - ernments to incorporate climate change considerations into existing conservation and ȱǲȱȱȱęȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ climate change and the impacts of other environmental changes on cetaceans as appro- ǲȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ enhance collaborations among various experts in cetacean biology, marine ecosystems, ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ceans under climate change scenarios. ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ large-scale, long-term, and multinational response from scientists, conservation man- ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱĴǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯ

Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ International Implications of Climate Change 129

ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱęȱĴǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ- ing in the development of a proposal for a marine protected area in the Ross Sea. The ǯǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱĴȂȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȦȬȱ ȱȱȃȱ ȱȱȱȄȱǻȬȬȦ ȦřǼǯ

North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱ ǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻ- ǰȱ ǰȱǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱǯǯǼȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ- systems, and the impacts of human activities; and to promote the collection and rapid ¡ȱȱęȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ- rum to promote greater understanding of the biological and oceanographic processes of ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¡ȱęȱȱęȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ ŘŖŖŘǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŗŗȱȱ¢ǰȱŗśȱ ǰȱ ȱ śȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ǻȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ publications/default.aspx).

Wider Caribbean Sea Turtle Conservation Network (WIDECAST) ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱŚŖȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱĴȱȱȱ- tegrated, regional capacity that ensures the recovery and sustainable management of ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ climate-related topics including monitoring, vulnerability assessment, selecting and pri- £ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯ

5.3: Climate Change Considerations by Regional Fisheries Management Organizations and Living Marine Resource Conservation Organizations

ȱȱŜǰȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȦŜŜȦǯŘŘǰȱ ȱǰȱȃȱęǰȱȱȱȱŗşşśȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ 130 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Figure 5-3 Green turtle (Source: David Patte).

ȱȱȱȱŗŖȱȱŗşŞŘȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȄȱǻ- ȱ ŜŜȦŜŞǼǯȱ ȱȦŜŜȦǯŘŘȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęǯȱȱ resolution urged nations, either directly or through appropriate subregional, regional, ȱȱ£ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱǯ ȱȱȱȱřȱȱŚǰȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱ ǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ěȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱę- ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱęȱ- ȱ£ȱǻǼȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ- ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗŘȱȱȱȱǯǯȱę¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱśǯřǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱ¡ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȯ ęȱ ȱȱǻȱǰȱęȱǰȱęȱǰȱęȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱęǼȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱęȱȱȱȱęǼȯȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǲȱȱȱ ǰȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ International Implications of Climate Change 131

ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ a stable decision environment such as a convention or treaty. In addition, many RFMOs ¢ȱȱȱȬǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- cially if the RFMO has many member countries.

Table 5-3: Primary RFMOs and arrangements that include U.S. living marine resources, by organization/membership, mission, relevant species, and climate change actions, 2012

£Ȧ ǯǯȱȱ status ȱ ȱȱ

Commission for Protect and ǰȱǰȱ CCAMLR includes climate change on the agenda of the Conservation conserve the crustaceans, ȱęȱĴǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ of Antarctic marine living and all other the Commission. Climate is also a factor considered in Marine Living resources in the species of living the development of a proposal for a marine protected Resources ȱȱ organisms, area in the Ross Sea. (CCAMLR)/ Antarctica including birds Member

North Atlantic ȱęȱ Atlantic salmon NASCO is concerned about the potential impacts Salmon research and the (Salmo salar) ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Conservation conservation, ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱ restoration, ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ Ǽǰȱ ȱ ȱ (NASCO)/ enhancement, ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ £ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Member and rational on the potential implications of climate change for management of salmon management at the 29th NASCO Annual ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ the North Atlantic śȬŞǰȱ ŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ Ocean directly addressing climate change and salmon to date.

ȱ Study, conserve ǰȱĚǰȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱĴȱȱ Atlantic Fisheries ȱȱę¢ȱ ęǰȱǰȱ Fisheries Environment has been discussing change £ȱ resources in the ǰȱǰȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱśŖȱ¢ǯȱ (NAFO)/ NAFO Regulatory shrimp ȱȱŗşŜŚǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Member Area in the North ȱȱ ȱǻŗşśŖȬŗşśşǰȱŗşŜŖȬŗşŜşǰȱŗşŝŖȬŗşŝşǰȱ Atlantic Ocean ŗşŞŖȬŗşşŖǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ beyond 200-mile ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱęȱǯȱ £ȱȱȱ states 132 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Table 5-3 Primary RFMOs and arrangements that include U.S. living marine resources, by organization/membership, mission, relevant species, and climate change actions, 2012 (Continued)

£Ȧ ǯǯȱȱ status ȱ ȱȱ

ȱęȱ Promote the ęȱȱ The Bering-Aleutian Salmon International Anadromous conservation of ǻǰȱǰȱǰȱ Survey-II (BASIS-II) is NPAFC's coordinated Fish Commission ȱȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ (NPAFC)/ and ecologically- cherry, and salmon in the Bering Sea designed to clarify Member related species in the steelhead) the mechanisms of biological response by high seas areas of the salmon to the conditions caused by climate ȱęȱ change. Climate change and its impact on salmon have been discussed in a Symposium ȱ ȱ ȱ Ǳȱ ŗǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ understanding impacts of future climate and ocean changes on the population dynamics ȱ ęȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖşǼȱ ȱ ŘǼȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ salmon (Beamish et al., 2010) The overarching theme of the NPAFC 2011- ŘŖŗśȱȱȱȱȃȱȱęȱ Salmon Production in the Ocean Ecosystems under Changing Climate.”

Western and Ensure, through ȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱęȱ ěȱǰȱ the species listed ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Fisheries the long-term in Annex 1 of the ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ Commission conservation and ŗşŞŘȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ (WCPFC)/ sustainable use of ȱȱ ȱȱȱ assessments (Summary Report of the Seventh Member ¢ȱ¢ȱęȱ Sea occurring in the ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ Ĵǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ Convention Area, 21 September 2011). ȱȱęȱ and other species Ocean in accordance ȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱŗşŞŘȱȱ Commission may Nations Convention determine necessary ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ to cover ȱȱŗşşśȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ International Implications of Climate Change 133

Straddling fish stocks ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱśȬŚǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯǯȮȱęȱȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱęȱȱȱ- ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ salmon harvests suggests that environmental variability may complicate the manage- ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱŗşşřǰȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱTreaty between the Government of Canada and the Government of the United States of America con- ȱęȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȂȱǯȱ- though several natural and anthropogenic factors contributed to these trends, evidence ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱĚǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱřŖǰȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱŗŖȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ- tive, abundance-based management regime (Miller et al., 2000). In 2009, that agreement ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ŗŖȱ ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ investments in cooperative research programs.

Figure 5-4 Types of fish stocks (Source: Munro et al., 2004). 134 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ

Transboundary fish stocks ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ęȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱśȬŚǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱǯǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȬȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱęȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱřȱȱŚǰȱ ȱȱĚȱȱȱ¡ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ migrations (Agostini et al., 2007; Nye et al., 2009). In addition, the age structure of the ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱǲȱȱȱ ǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱęȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱȱ¢ȱęȱǯȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ boundaries, are a case in point. Currently, no international management agreement ex- ȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯǯǰȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱ¢ȱ ȱȱěȱȂȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ If cooperative conservation and management is a positive sum game, a related concern ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱȱŚȱȱȱǼǯ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ȱȱęǰȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱǯǯȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȂȱ- ment of Fisheries and Oceans in British Columbia.

Highly migratory fish stocks 3

řȲȱȱȃ¢ȱ¢ȱȄȱȱȱȱŜŚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǻǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱ- CLOS Annex 1 lists the species considered highly migratory by Parties to the Convention. The list includes: ȱȱǻǰȱęǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ¢ ęǰȱęǰȱĴȱ¢ǰȱȱęǰȱȱ- ǼǰȱȱȬȱȱǻǰȱǰȱęǰȱ ęǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ other cetaceans). International Implications of Climate Change 135

ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱ ȱǻȱśȬŚǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱęȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱě¢ȱ they can maintain member nations’ incentives to cooperate despite the uncertainties and shifting opportunities that may result from climate-driven changes in productivity, mi- ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¡ȱȱę¢ȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱę¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȭęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ is a priority to supplement income from access license fees. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ dramatically if the sea temperature changes, but the spatial distribution may shift sub- ¢ȱǻȱȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŖŖǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǻ- ǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱŚǼǯ

Arctic Climate change is expected to have profound impacts in the Arctic; some of these chang- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻȱȱŘǰȱřǰȱŚǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱǯȱ¡ȱȱ movement of some sub-Arctic species into the Arctic may occur over time and the rates ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ climate change (see Section 3). Fishing may expand in response to periods of reduced ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱŜǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ǯ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ structures and processes to be strengthened or enhanced. Agreements, both multilateral 136 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱǰȱ ȱȱĚ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ- ǰȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ seas areas.

5.4 Climate Change and Other International Issues

Maritime transportation and security ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱ ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ including marine resource and ecosystem-based management. According to some re- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱĚȱ and increasingly severe clashes over the extraction of natural resources among the global ȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖŝǲȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱęȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱ Climate change adaptation and mitigation actions often extend beyond regional scales and regional governance and security concerns. According to the Energy, Envi- ǰȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱǰȱȃȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȃȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ȬǰȱȬĜ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱoutsideȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ areas of foreign and trade policy, security and geopolitics, energy policy and investment ȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȄȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱ 11; also see Section 5).

ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻĴǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ ǯǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ and marine-dependent communities are in an especially vulnerable position. If a sub- ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ radical socio-economic changes to marine resource-based communities. The central role ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȃ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ¢Ǽǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȄȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǱŗŖŞǼǯ ǯǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ- tion they serve and represent, face numerous challenges in this and coming decades. International Implications of Climate Change 137

In addition to energy security, global trade, terrorism, nuclear non-proliferation, and ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱ- tional security challenge as it complicates and exacerbates many more traditional security issues.

TRANSPORTATION. According to the Arctic Council’s 2009 Arctic Marine Shipping ȱǻǼȱǰȱȃȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ and severe climate change on earth… Of direct relevance to future Arctic marine activity, and to the AMSA, is that potentially accelerating Arctic sea ice retreat improves ȱȱȱȱȱȄȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱŘŜǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱŘǲȱȱśȬśǼǰȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱŚȬŗŚǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ vessels because of melting Arctic sea ice, these regions are experiencing greater mari- ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȃȱȬȱȱȱȄȱ ǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŘǰȱȱŗŚşŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱěȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ěǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱǯ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȬȱěȱȱ as sea level rise. These issues are considered in depth in the Coastal Impacts, Adapta- tion, and Vulnerabilities Technical Input for the 2013 National Climate Assessment.

Blue carbon ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ sediment of coastal and marine ecosystems (as discussed in section 2.9). Accounting for ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- formational tool in the implementation of improved coastal policy and management. ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ęǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ę¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱĴ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ support nature-based climate change mitigation solutions such as blue carbon: • ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǱȱ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+), National Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), and the Clean Development 138 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱǻǼȱȱȬǰȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱ ǻȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ conservation, restoration, and sustainable use of natural systems such as forests and peatlands. Coastal ecosystems can be integrated into these existing Ȭȱǯ • ȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ coastal carbon and has invited the submission of information on emissions from ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ • ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŜȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ - ȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ • The Blue Carbon Initiative is a global agenda to maintain the blue carbon stored in coastal ecosystems and to avoid emissions from their destruction. The initiative, coordinated by Conservation International (CI), the International ȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ

Figure 5-5 U.S. Coast Guard Vessel in Arctic Ocean (Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39394645/ns/world_news- world_environment/t/ships-take-arctic-ocean-sea-ice-melts/). International Implications of Climate Change 139

ȱǻ Ǽȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱȱǱȱŗǼȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱŘǼȱȱ- ȬȱȱȬȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȬ based policy, management, conservation, and science globally. Field-based ȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ment of practical, science-based methodologies and building capacity in target countries. • ȱęȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ęǯ • A number of countries including Indonesia, Costa Rica, and Ecuador have iden- ęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ the integration of coastal blue carbon into their priority activities. These countries are in need of technical and resource support to complete this process and ȱěȱȬȬȱȱȱ¢ǯ • ǰȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȦ Connecticut Chapter 6

Ocean Management Challenges, Adaptation Approaches, and Opportunities in a Changing Climate

Executive Summary

ǰȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ- ginning to understand, plan for, and address the impacts of climate change on oceans. Although the practice of climate adaptation is relatively nascent, particularly for marine ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ best available science, including long-term monitoring and assessment of environmental ȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬ¢ǰȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱěǯȱ Ȭ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱ ȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ to reduce non-climatic stressors such as pollution and habitat destruction. Existing legal ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱĚ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ uncertainty.

Key Findings

140 Ocean Management Challenges, Adaptation Approaches, and Opportunities in a Changing Climate 141

řǯȲȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱěǯ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ience and adaptive capacity. • ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱǯ

ŚǯȲȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȬȱȱ ȱ ȱǲȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱǯ

Key Science Gaps/Knowledge Needs:

A strategic, use-inspired, and integrated science agenda is necessary to inform and sup- ȱěȱȱȱȱě¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǱ • Enhance and sustain long-term observations and monitoring of ocean physical, ecological, social, and economic systems to inform adaptive management; • Apply integrative indicators of ocean ecosystem health to foster holistic understanding, monitoring, assessment, and evaluation of change; • ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȬȱǰȱȱȱȱ actions; • Support research on relevant social, behavioral, and economic sciences to assess ȱȱȱȬěǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ ěȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ- standing of human responses to change for marine systems; and 142 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

• ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱǯ

6.1 Challenges and Opportunities for Adaptation in Marine Systems

Adaptation involves processes related to preparing for and building resilience to climate ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǲȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱěȱȱȱȱȱ sustainable future through enhancing the social, economic, and ecological resilience of ocean systems. ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼǱ • Assess vulnerability to climate change; • Identify, design, and implement management, planning, and/or regulatory ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǲ • Design and implement monitoring programs to assess change and evaluate ěǲȱ • ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ redesigned as necessary.

ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱ 2011). ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱĴȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǱ • ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǲ • ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ action; • ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǲȱ • ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱǰȱ and tools to support assessments and monitoring; • ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǲȱ • ȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱǯ

ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱ IPCC, 2007a). Fortunately, solutions exist for overcoming many of these barriers, including enhanced provision of information, tools, and services that support ocean-related adaptation decisions and integration of climate change into existing policies, practices, Ocean Management Challenges, Adaptation Approaches, and Opportunities in a Changing Climate 143

ȱǯȱȱȱ¢£ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯ

6.2 Information, Tools, and Services to Support Ocean Adaptation

ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- mand for user-friendly, science-based information that supports ocean adaptation ěǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ǰȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- tioners can help to ensure that the information provided is accessible, understandable, ȱǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȂȱ ȱȱȱ Ȃȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ

Importance of long-term observations and monitoring for management The establishment of current baselines and trends are a core element of adaptation ap- ȱ ǻǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ £ȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ- cal, social, and economic systems are needed to provide information on past and current ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ developing meaningful climate indices, and supporting adaptive management. Obser- vations and monitoring data can provide critical insight into the relative contributions of anthropogenic change versus natural variability in ocean systems. In addition, long- term data can inform the development of more accurate and higher-resolution climate ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Key variables that inform the development of ocean adaptation actions include but are not limited to: • ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǲȱ • Ecological parameters such as phenology (e.g., timing of the spring phyto- ȱȱȱȬ¢ȱǼǰȱȱǰȱǰȱ- sity, and primary productivity (NCA, 2010b); and • Socio-economic parameters, such as demographics, food supplies, social and ȱ ȬǰȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯ

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ opportunity is to leverage existing observation and monitoring systems, including those ȱȱȱȱǻȱ¢ȱŜȬǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ and managing for climate change (National Ocean Council, 2012). 144 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Case Study 6-A Marine protected areas as sentinel sites for monitoring, understanding, and managing climate change

ȱ ȱ ŗşşşȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱ inform the climate change management dialogue. through a public-private partnership, California is ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ - ȱȱ ǰȱŗǰŗŖŖȬȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ marine protected areas (MPAs) to protect marine for climate change monitoring (MPA Monitoring ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - Enterprise, 2012), leveraging the opportunity pre- toring and evaluating these MPAs to inform adap- ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱĜ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęǯȱ ¢ȱȱě¢ȱȱȱȱ £ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ Council has invested over $20M to conduct base- ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- MPA performance, and evaluate climate change ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱę¢ȱ adaptation measures. ǰȱ ȱ Ȭěȱ ȱ - ǯȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ future assessments of ecosystem health and MPA performance can be evaluated. ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - pogenic stressors are reduced, provides a large-scale natural laboratory to understand ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- systems. The innovative approaches to MPA monitoring being developed in the state also ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Sea Ranch, California (Photo Credit: J.J. Meyer).

A challenge ahead is to ensure that coastal and ocean resource managers have access ȱȬ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱ¢ȱ - ȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ young animals (see Case Study 3-A). Oceanographic models developed at the Woods ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȬȱȱȱ ȱȱ to predict blooms of the toxic alga, Alexandrium fundyenseǰȱȱȱȱĜ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- sible information at relevant decision scales. Ocean Management Challenges, Adaptation Approaches, and Opportunities in a Changing Climate 145

Barriers remain in providing long-term information to support ocean adaptation de- ǯȱȱȱ¢£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- creasingly important for providing practical information to inform management. The ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȬȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¡ȱǻȱ¢ȱŜȬǼȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢£ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȬ¢ȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ £ȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ

Tools and services for supporting ocean management in a changing climate ěȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǲȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱǲȱȱȱ enhance analytic capacity to translate understanding into planning and management ac- ȱǻǯǯǰȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ the information provided must be timely, accessible, relevant, and credible. Although ȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȃ- cessible” to adaptation practitioners; it is either unavailable, too technical to be under- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȬǰȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ Ȭ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ emerging. ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- hance ocean resilience in the face of climate change. • ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- Ȭȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱȱ¡ȱȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦǼǯ • ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Several tools and services have been developed to help reef managers anticipate and respond to bleaching events. For example: The Reef Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching, produced by NOAA, the ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ to help reef managers respond and enhance resilience to bleaching events. ǻĴǱȦȦǯǯȦȦȏȏȦǼ ȂȱȱȱȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦǼȱȱ developed several tools, including the Satellite Bleaching Alert System ǻĴǱȦȦ ȬǯǯȦǯǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ conducive to bleaching at select reef. 146 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Case Study 6-B The Ocean Health Index

Protecting or restoring healthy oceans represents a The Index can be used to assess the impacts of core goal of almost any marine resource manage- climate change on each of the 10 public goals as ȱǰȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȃȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ȅȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ęǯȱ ȱ management scenarios that target climate impact ȱȱęȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ land-based pollution regulations, or other mea- ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ sures. For example, climate change impacts that the aim of providing a tool for guiding manage- reduce the extent of coastal habitats (e.g., through ment decisions. ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¢Ǽȱ ȱ - ȱ ¡ȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ fect many goals including carbon storage, coast- ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ line protection, and biodiversity, in turn reducing ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ overall ocean health. Management actions that ȱȱŗŖȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ increase resilience and reduce non-climatic pres- ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ- sures on coastal habitats should help ameliorate vision, livelihoods, and cultural values (McLeod climate impacts and maintain or even improve ȱǯǰȱȱ Ǽǯȱȱǰȱȱ ¡ȱȱ- ocean health in the face of climate change. ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- Global results for the Index have recently been ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŘǼǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ sustainably used, rather than simply protected, to ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ score highly. The Index converts into a common improvement. Regional assessments for the Cali- ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱęȱǰȱǰȱȱ- Ȭȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ǯ ǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ

• ȱȱȱ £Ǳȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǯǯȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ ȱǯǯȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦ ȬȬ£ȦȬȦȦȦŘŖŗŗȦȬȬ £ǯ¡Ǽǯ • ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱǻ Ǽǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ managing natural systems including oceans in the face of climate change. CAKE ȱȱ¢ȱĴȱȱ£ȱȱǰȱȱ Ocean Management Challenges, Adaptation Approaches, and Opportunities in a Changing Climate 147

adaptation case studies, building a community via an interactive online plat- ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ and identifying and explaining data tools and information available from other ȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯ¡ǯȦǼǯ • ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ provides a diversity of resources in support of coastal and ocean adaptation, such as state-level adaptation plans, case studies, climate communications infor- ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻĴǱȦȦǯǯǯȦȦǯ¡Ǽǯȱ

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ remains in providing accessible information to meet the diverse set of adaptation planning, implementation, and evaluation challenges faced by marine resource managers ȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ

6.3 Opportunities for Integrating Climate Change into U.S. Ocean Policy and Management

Although climate change presents challenges to marine resource managers and other ȱȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- agement. For example, because climatic and non-climatic stressors interact, reducing ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻ ¢ȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ climate-related vulnerabilities of oceans by incorporating climate change considerations ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯ

Incorporating climate change into marine spatial planning and marine protected area (MPA) design Both coastal and marine spatial planning (CMSP) and MPAs spatially allocate human ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ£ȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ supporting and improving resource use and conservation goals (Ehler and Douvere, 2009). MPAs instead focus primarily on limiting access to some or, in the case of “no- Ȅȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢¢ȱȱ- ȱȱęȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ and management of existing protected areas and refugia, and increasing connectivity 148 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

and the amount of protected space, provide mechanisms for enhancing climate resil- ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȬȱěǰȱȱ and MPA processes must incorporate climate change into their planning, implementa- ǰȱȱȱěǯ Accounting for the impacts of global climate change in CMSP and MPA planning ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ- ing climate change into the design of management plans: 1) build resilience to climate ǰȱŘǼȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱǰȱȱřǼȱȱȱ- terns of change. Building climate resilience into spatial management remains the most commonly ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ regulations and mandates. Targeted actions to limit or remove non-climatic stressors can help reduce the cumulative impact of total stressors, thus improving the ability of ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȬȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȬěȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱěȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ- ǰȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱȬ- ed impacts and other increasing or catastrophic stressors (Allison et al., 2003; McLeod et al., 2009). For example, the large areas encompassed by the MPAs recently established in ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱ¬¬ȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱǯǯȱęȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱ ȱ National Marine Monuments, are protected from many human activities and therefore ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ climatic stress from human activities. ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱǯȱĴȱȱ¡ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- tected areas in locations that exhibit high resilience to climate change. As assessments designed to inform CMSP and MPA planning processes engage and inform more sectors ȱȱȱǰȱȱěȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ęǰȱȱȬěȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ and MPA design is the most challenging of the three options, primarily because of the Ĝ¢ȱȱȱȬȱĴȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ larval transport. MPA planning and CMSP processes can be designed to both anticipate Ocean Management Challenges, Adaptation Approaches, and Opportunities in a Changing Climate 149

ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱ ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ

Integrating climate change into fisheries management Ȭȱȱȱěǰȱȱ ȱȱȱěǰȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŖşǲȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŘǲȱ ȱ ȱ řǰȱ Śǰȱ ȱ śǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱ Ĵǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ę¢ȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǱȱŗǼȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱě¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱę- ȱȱȱě¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱ¡- ǰȱȱȱǯǯȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱĴȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱĵȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȬȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱ ŘŖŖşǲȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ ¡ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǻŘŖŖşǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ that could translate into a 30-100 percent increase in maximum sustainable yield. Mueter ȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Sea. Another promising step is the development of ecosystem models to help explore ȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ 150 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

In addition, the body of literature and tools for assessing the vulnerability of natural ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻǯǯǰȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯ ¢ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ę¢ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ¡¢ȱ ȱȬȱǰȱȱȱěȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ more information and tools on climate impacts and vulnerabilities become available. ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ- ¢ǰȱȱęȱǯȱ ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱęȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǵȱȱǰȱĴȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǰȱȱŚŜŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȃȱ ȱ¡ȱ- ǰȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȄȱȱȱȱȱȱ ę¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- tion of ecosystem-based approaches through mechanisms such as integration of chang- ȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱǯȱ

Efforts to integrate climate considerations into existing legislative and regulatory frameworks ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ£ǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱ- ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǯȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ȱ et al., 2011). Although no single piece of existing federal legislation directly targets climate change adaptation in the marine environment, several potential mechanisms have ȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ change considerations into existing statutory and regulatory processes (Gregg et al., ŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱĜǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȃȱ¢ȱ£ȱǯȱǯȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ- source conditions resulting from climate change in their management activities” (GAO, ŘŖŖŝǰȱȱŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ delegated statutory and regulatory authority. Broadly applicable policy initiatives may enable climate change adaptation in the ocean and marine environment. For example, the National Ocean Council has devel- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǱȱŗǼȱȃ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȄȱȱŘǼȱȃȱ conditions in the Arctic” (National Ocean Council, 2012). The Council on Environmental Quality has also drafted guidance for federal agencies regarding the incorporation of consideration of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures into environmental ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻǲȱŚŘȱǯǯǯȱ ȗȱŚřŝŗȱet seq.; CEQ, 2010). ȱǰȱȱǯǯȱȱȱęȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ocean Management Challenges, Adaptation Approaches, and Opportunities in a Changing Climate 151 change impacts in the marine environment through existing legislative and regulatory ǯȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ- siderations into regulation and management. • ȱęǱ The Clean Water Act (CWA) has been cited as a potential ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ ǻǰȱ ŘŖŖşǲȱ Kelly et al., 2011). The purpose of the CWA is to restore and maintain the chemical, ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯǯȱ ȱǻřřȱǯǯǯȱȗȱŗŘśŗȱet seq.). One of ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ¢ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the EPA solicited input on ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱęȱǻȱǯȱȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢Ȃȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱĜȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȗȱřŖŚǻǼǰȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ¢ȱȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęǲȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ fail to meet criteria established for coral reef ecosystems, bivalves, or other organ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ (Bradley et al., 2010). • ȱ ȱ ȱ Ǳ Climate change is adversely impacting ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻȱ ȱ řǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻŗŜȱǯǯǯȱȗȱŗśřŗȱet seq.), ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱǰȱǰȱȱ recover threatened and endangered species. These agencies cited climate change impacts such as increased sea surface temperatures, sea level rise, loss of sea ice, ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱǻȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱ ǻȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ- ęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱŞŘȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ threatened or endangered listing (Federal Register, 2010c). In addition to listings, agencies could factor climate adaptation considerations into critical habitat desig- nations, recovery plans, and consultations on proposed Federal actions (Craig, ŘŖŖşǱȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ • ȱ Ǳȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ǰȱ - ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱǻȱȱřȱȱŚǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻŗŜȱǯǯǯȱȗŗŞŖŗȱet seqǯǼȱȱȱę¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ę¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ 152 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ation of climate change exist, at least one regional council has begun to consider ȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǰȱ ŘŖŖşǼǯȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱ ęǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱǻǰȱŘŖŖşǲȱȱȱŚȱȱśǼǯȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ

ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ management of climate change impacts in the marine environment. In addition, many ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱǯȱȱ example, many state coastal management programs have already developed adaptation policies (CSO, 2007). Kelly et al. (2011) identify several actions that local and state ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ- ȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱǯ

6.4 Emerging Frameworks and Actions for Ocean Adaptation

Although the science and practice of marine adaptation are relatively nascent, many ǰȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ȱ developing strategies for enhancing ocean resilience in the face of a changing climate. Marine systems, and especially coral reef systems, are the sites of some of the earli- ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ Ĵǰȱ ŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱ ǰȱȱȬȱȱěǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱ ȱǻȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱȱ ȱŜȬŗȱȱ¡Ǽǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- tion have been developed at national, regional, state, local, and non-governmental levels ǻȱȱŜȬŗȱȱ¡Ǽǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ planning and implementation of on-the-ground actions. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱǻǼȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦȦǼȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱŘŖŖŖȬŘŖŖśǰȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ęȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǼȂȱȱȱȱĴǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ĵǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ Ocean Management Challenges, Adaptation Approaches, and Opportunities in a Changing Climate 153

ȱ ȱŘŖŖŜȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱěȱ- trates adaptive management based on changing environmental conditions. Coral reefs are being impacted by both climatic and non-climatic stressors (see

Table 6-1: Examples of ocean-related climate adaptation frameworks in the U.S.

NATIONAL/FEDERAL Interagency Climate ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱ ȱȱȱ Change Adaptation Spring 2009 to determine progress on federal agency actions in support of national ȱȱ adaptation and to develop recommendations for additional actions. The ICCATF is ȱȱȱŘŖȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱĜȱȱȱ- ȱȱřŖŖȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱŗřśŗŚȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȬȱ responsibilities, to develop adaptation plans. ĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦȦȦȦȦ

National Fish, Wildlife The National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy, initiated and Plants Climate through Congressional directive in 2009, is currently under development. The Strat- Adaptation Strategy ¢ȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ tribal, and non-governmental entities to safeguard the nation’s valuable natural resources, including marine resources, against a changing climate. The draft Strategy ȱȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŘȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯ ¢ǯȦ¡ǯ

National Ocean Policy ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱ¡ȱȱŗřśŚŝȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯ www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/oceans/policy REGIONAL

West Coast ȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŜȱ Governors Alliance ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ocean and coastal resources. The Alliance includes a Climate Change Action Co- ordination Team that is initially focusing on a West Coast assessment of shoreline change and anticipated impacts to coastal areas and communities due to climate ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ǯ ĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦ 154 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Table 6-1: Examples of ocean-related climate adaptation frameworks in the U.S. (Continued)

STATE

State of California Climate Adaptation ȱŘŖŖşǰȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ Strategy released their Climate Adaptation Strategy. The Coastal and Ocean Resources ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱ and conducting vulnerability assessments, among other actions. ĴǱȦȦǯǯȦȏȦȦ ȏȏȱ¢ǯ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦ

Ĵȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȂȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ Change Adaptation ȱȱěȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ Report ĴȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ including Coastal Zone and Oceans. ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȬ ȬȬȦȬȦȬȬȬ report.html ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȦ¢ȦȦȬȬȬŞǯ

NON-GOVERNMENTAL ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢Ȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Conservation Action ȱȱȱ£Ȃȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȂȱȱ and Beaufort Seas resources. An expert panel helped guide the selection of primary conservation targets ȱ ȱ ǰȱȬȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱ adaptation strategies and ecosystem-based management, investing in baseline and long- term data collection, and identifying and protecting climate refugia, among others. ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ¢ȬȬȬȬŘǯ

A Climate Change Action Plan for the The Florida Reef Resilience Program, a public-private partnership, released a Climate Florida Reef System ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ (2010-2015) ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ¢ȱȱęȱ in the Plan include expanding disturbance response monitoring throughout the ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȬȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ adopted by reef managers into existing management plans. ĴǱȦȦǯȦƖŘŖȦƖŘŖƖŘŖƖŘŖȬǯȱ Ocean Management Challenges, Adaptation Approaches, and Opportunities in a Changing Climate 155

ȱřǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǯǯȱ ȱ¢Ȃȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻǼȱǻĴǱȦȦǯǯǯȦȦǼȱȱȱ- ing drivers and trends of coral reef ecosystem change. CREST is conducting monitoring ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱęȱ of diseases, and improving understanding of reef responses to sea-level change, among ǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ forecast future change, and guide management decisions. ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ǯȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦęȏǯǼȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ production, and identify resilient oyster genotypes. Some hatcheries are already imple- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ of high acidity. ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯǯȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱěǰȱȱǰȱ- pact, and vulnerability assessments, to the development of guidance and tools, to on- the-ground implementation. In general, most ocean-related adaptation activities are still ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǲȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Chapter 7

Sustaining the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Oceans and Marine Resources

Key Findings

156 Sustaining the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Oceans and Marine Resources 157

• ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱ in a changing climate. • ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- national partners for assessing and addressing impacts of climate change and ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯǯ

7.1 Challenges to Assessing Climate Impacts on Oceans and Marine Resources

ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢- ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱ¢ȱȱȱ through a suite of changes in ocean physical, chemical, biological, social, and economic ¢ȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱȱȱǼǯȱȱȬ ȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱȱǻȱȱŘȱȱřǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŚǼǰȱȱǯǯȱȱ relations (see Section 5). Despite this foundation of information, many uncertainties and gaps remain in un- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱŘǰȱřǰȱŚǰȱśǰȱŜȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱŗǼȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱǯǯȱȱȱŘǼȱȱěȱȱ- ȱěȱȱǯ • Limited capacity and coordination of existing observation systems to collect, assess, integrate, and deliver information on physical, chemical, biological, ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ decision-relevant scales. • ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ęȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ǯ • ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯǯȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ecosystems. • ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ¡ȱǰȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯ • ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ science needs). 158 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

• ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱǰȱȱ examples for incorporating climate change information into ocean management processes. • ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ

7.2 Steps for Sustained Assessment of Climate Impacts on Oceans and Marine Resources

ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ the capacity to assess and respond to climate impacts on ocean and marine resources ǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŘǲȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǲȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǲȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȬȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ing and advancing future assessments of climate change impacts on oceans and marine resources. This is not intended to be a comprehensive list, and items are not listed in priority order. • Identify a set of core indicators of the condition of marine ecosystems that can ę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱŗǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱŘǼȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱěȱ over time at regional to national scales. • ȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱ¡ȱȬȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ- ical, biological, social, and economic impacts of climate change on oceans and marine resources. • Enhance capacity and coordination of existing observing systems to collect, ¢£ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ǯ • ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȬȱȱ¢ǯ • ȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ climate change on marine ecosystems, including (also see previous sections for ȱȱ¢ȱȱǼǱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ use components of marine ecosystems respond to changes in climate and ȱęǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ changes in marine ecosystems; Information on past variability in climate and ocean conditions for use in ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱȱ ocean conditions on a variety of temporal and spatial scales; Sustaining the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Oceans and Marine Resources 159

ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǼȱ ȱȱǻǯǯǰȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱǲȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ change impacts on physical, chemical, biological, and ocean use components of marine ecosystems.

• Build and support mechanisms for sustained coordination and communication ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ information needs are being met related to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation of ocean ecosystems in a changing climate. • Build and support mechanisms for obtaining and sharing information and ȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱ in a changing climate. • ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- national partners for assessing and addressing impacts of climate change and ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯ

A diversity of potential mechanisms could enhance the sustained coordination and assessment of climate impacts on ocean systems. For example: • ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȦȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ National Ocean Policy, National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation ¢ǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ through a coordinated federal science agenda. • ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ment process for the National Climate Assessment. These individuals could ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ on a staggered rotational basis. • Informally convene federal agencies that are developing ocean-related compo- ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱŗřśŗŚȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ • ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ scientists and local, state, tribal, federal, NGO, and private sector practitioners to ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱěȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯ • Improve regional coordination to connect climate information to the large ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ climate and ocean entities such as NOAA Fisheries Science Centers, NOAA Regional Climate Service Directors, DOI Climate Science Centers, and DOI ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ regions. Appendix A

Status of and Climate Change Impacts to Commercial, Recreational, and Subsistence Fisheries in the U.S.

A.1 Commercial and Recreational Fisheries 4

Commercial fisheries

ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱęȱȱȱǯǯȱȱŝǯşȱȱȱȱęęȱȱ ęǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡Ȭȱǰȱ ȱǞřǯşȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǞřŝŞȱǼǰȱȱ- lop (Placopecten magellanicusǲȱǞřŝŜȱǼǰȱęȱȱǻǞřŝŖȱǼǰȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱǻTheragra chalcogrammaǲȱǞřŖŞȱǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǻŗǯşȱ ȱ Ǽǰȱ ȱ ǻȱ ¢ǲȱ ŗǯŚȱ ǼǰȱȱęȱȱǻŝŖśȱǼǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱ¡¢ȱŗȱ ȱȬȱȱȬȱȱȱȱǞŗŗŜȱȱȱȱǰȱǞřŘȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱǞŚŞȱȱȱȱȱǯ5 ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ǻȱȬŗǼǯȱ ȱ ¡ǰȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ salmon (Oncorhynchus sppǯǲȱŜŝŗȱȱǼȱȱȱǞřŚśȱȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȂȱȱŗśȱȱȱȱȱǞŚŞȱ- ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- can lobster (Homarus americanus) in 2009, earning $231 million for the 79 million pounds ǯȱ ȱĴǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ $197 million for 30 million pounds landed. Louisiana harvesters caught more blue crab (Callinectes sapidusǲȱśŗȱȱǼȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱǞřŜȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱǻŝŞŜȱȱǼǰȱ- ȱǞŚřȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǰȱȱǞŗřŗȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱȱşŖȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱę- ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻŗŗŚȱȱǼǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǞŗŘŗȱ Ǽǯȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ

ŚȲData reported in this subsection (Commercial Fisheries) are documented in NOAA Fisheries, 2010. śȲThe seafood industry includes the commercial harvest sector, seafood processors and dealers, seafood wholesalers, and distributors, importers, and seafood retailers.

160 Status of and Climate Change Impacts to Commercial, Recreational, and Subsistence Fisheries in the U.S. 161

1RUWK3DFL¿F

New England

3DFL¿F

Mid-Atlantic

South Atlantic

:HVWHUQ3DFL¿F Gulf of Mexico

Figure A-1 U.S. Commercial Fisheries by region (2009 landings, revenue, and job impacts) (Source: National Marine Fisheries Service, 2010).

ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŗŘŗǰŖŖŖȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ Ĵȱ ȱŝŞǰŖŖŖȱǰȱȱ ȱŜśǰŖŖŖȱǰȱȱȱ ȱśŞǰŖŖŖȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŚŖŝȱ- Ȭ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ Ĵǰȱǰȱȱǯȱ

Recreational fisheries 6 ȱ ŘŖŖşǰȱ ¡¢ȱ ŗŗȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ - ¡¢ȱşǯŚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱȱŗǯŝȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱŝŚȱȱ ȱęȱǰȱȱǞŚǯśȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǞŗśȱȱȱ- ȱęȬȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱǞśŖȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱřŘŝǰŖŖŖȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ sea trout (Cynoscion regalisǲȱŚŚȱȱęǼȱȱȱȱȱȱǻMicropogon undulatus and Leiostomus xanthurusǰȱ¢ǲȱřŜȱȱęǼǯȱ

ŜȲȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǼȱȱȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǯ 162 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘǯŞȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŘȱ - ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱȱȬȱǻŘǯŜȱȱǰȱŗŝȱȱǼȱȱ ȱȱȱǻŘǯŚȱȱǰȱŗşȱȱǼȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ęȱ ǻŗǯŞȱ ȱ ǰȱ Ŝǯřȱ ȱ Ǽǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǻŗǯŚȱ ǰȱ ŝǯśȱ - ȱǼǰȱȱęȱǻŘŞŚǰŖŖŖȱǰȱşŗŚǰŖŖŖȱęȱ¢Ǽǰȱȱȱȱęȱ ǻŘŚŜǰŖŖŖǰȱŘǯŘȱȱǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱęȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŗśȱȱ ęǼȱȱȱĚȱǻParalichthys dentatusǲȱŘŚȱǼǰȱ ȱ ȱȱ- glers caught most of the striped bass (Morone saxatilis; 9 million) in 2009. Most sea trout ǻřśǯśȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱ ǻȱ ǻOncorhynchus tshawytscha), chum (Oncorhynchus keta), coho (Oncorhynchus kisutchǼǰȱȱǻOncorhynchus gorbuschaǼǰȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱǻOncorhynchus nerka and Hippoalossus stenolepisǰȱ¢Ǽȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱŗǯŗȱȱęȱȱŝŜŗǰŖŖŖȱęȱǰȱ¢ǯȱęȱȱ ȱęȱǻŘǯŝȱȱęǼǰȱȱǻScomber scombrusǲȱŘȱȱęǼǰȱȱ (Sphyraena barracudaǼǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻAtractoscion nobilis) and bonito (Sarda chiliensis) ǻŗǯŜȱȱęǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ (Thunnus obesusǼȱȱȱǻŗǯŗȱȱęǼȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱęǯȱ A.2 Commercial and Recreational Fishing-Dependent Communities 7 ǯǯȱęȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱ¢ȱȱęȬȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱ- ęȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ coastal areas of the South Atlantic region’s states of South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida are all subtropical as are the coastal areas of all the states in the Gulf of Mexico region. ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱěȱěȱȱȱȱęǯ ȱȂȱȱȱęȬȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ¡ȱǻǯȱŗǰşśřǰŜřŗǼǰȱȱǰȱȱǻǯȱ ŗǰŘŘřǰŚŖŖǼǰȱ ǰȱ ȂȱǻǯȱŞŝŜǰŗśŜǼǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǻǯȱŝřśǰŜŗŝǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱǻǯȱşŞŞǼǰȱǰȱȱǻǯȱŜŝŞǼǰȱȱ ǰȱȱǻǯȱřŝŗǼǰȱǰȱȱǻǯȱŘřŜǼǰȱȱǰȱ ȱ ǻǯȱŗŘřǼǯȱȱŘŘŘȱȱęȬȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱŗŖǯŗȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱşǯŘȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȬȱȱȱȱŖȱȱȱǰȱ - ȱȱřřǯŝȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ

ŝȲȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȬȱǼȱȱȱȱȱ Fisheries, 2009a. Status of and Climate Change Impacts to Commercial, Recreational, and Subsistence Fisheries in the U.S. 163

ȱŘȱȱȱŗŖȱǯȱȱęȬȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȬȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- guage other than English at home range from 0 percent of Crescent, Georgia’s residents ȱŗȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱŞŝȱȱȱ ǰȱ¡ȱȱşřȱ ȱȱȂǰȱ Ȃǯȱ ¢Ȭ ȱǰȱȱŚŞȱȱŘŘŘǰȱȱȱȱęȬ- ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǞŚŘǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŖȱǯǯȱǲȱ ȱ ȱ ęȬȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǞŗŞǰŖŖŖȱ ȱ ęǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǞŗŚŜǰŝśśȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ȬȱǰȱȱŞŚȱȱŘŘŘǰȱȱȱȱȱęȬȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęǯ

A.3 Regional Involvement in Commercial and Recreational Fishing

Although described to some extent in the previous sections, a more detailed description of the socio-economic impacts and climate change implications of commercial and recre- ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ǯ

North Pacific ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱěȱǱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ Ǽǰȱ ȱȱȮȱ ȱǻ Ǽǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱęȱ ȱ- ¢ȱȱȱęǰȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱĚ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱȱ- ing Sea is a semi-enclosed high-latitude sea and its broad continental shelf is one of the ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ (Theragra chalcogrammaǼǰȱ ęȱ ȱ ǻGadus macrocephalusǼǰȱ ¢ ęȱ ȱ ǻLimanda asperaǼǰȱȱȱȱǻĴȱ¢¡¢ǼǰȱȱȱȱǻPleurogrammus monopterygius). Other species comprise a minor fraction of the total catch. Total ground- ęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ęȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱ- ǰȱęȱǰȱĚęǰȱęȱȱȱǻSebastes alutusǼǰȱȱȱȱ- ęǰȱȱęȱǻAnoplopoma ę). ęȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ĴȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱęȱȱěȱȱȱȱ ŗǯśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱ ȱȱ¡ȬȱȱȱǞŜřŜȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱŚřȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱŗŚȱȱȱȱ¡Ȭȱǰȱȱȱ ǯǯȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱęȱ ȱěȱȱȱ ȱ¡¢ȱǞŗǯşȱǰȱȱȱȱŗŗȱȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱ ęȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻŚŗȱ Ǽȱ ȱ ȱ ¡Ȭȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱěȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ ȱȱęȱȱę¢ȱ ȱ 164 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱ ȱǞśŖŜȱȱȱřŘȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡Ȭȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱę¢ȱȱȱǞŘŖŜǯřȱȱȱŗřȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱǞśǯŞȱǯ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ěȱǯȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱȱŞŞŞǰśŖŖȱȱȱȱȱśŜȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱŗǯŜȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱŗǯśȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŚȬŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱŘŖŖŞȱȱŗǯŖȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱĴȱ ȱŞŖŖȱȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŗŗȱȱŘŖŗŘȱ ȱ¡ȱȱŗǯŘȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ěȱ ǻŘŖŗŘǰȱ ǯȱ ǯǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻŘŖŖŜȬŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ colder than average years in the Bering Sea. A large ice and cold pool extent concentrates ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱ north an advantage over those in the south. The redistribution has occurred in the sum- ȱȱę¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱę¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱěǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱěȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ- ěȂȱǻŘŖŗŘǰȱǼȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱęȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ the importance of considering the economic, institutional, and ecological characteristics ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱęǯ ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱĚęǰȱ ȱȱ¢ ęȱȱǻPleuronectes asperǼǰȱȱȱ (Pleuronectes bilineatusǼǰȱȱ ȱĚȱǻAtheresthes stomiasǼǰȱ ȱŘşŗǰŞŖŖȱȱ ȱ ŗŞǯřȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖŗŖȱ ęȱ ȱ ǻ Ĵȱ ȱ ǯǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱŘśŖǰřŖŖȱȱȱŗŜȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱęȱǰȱ ȱȱşȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱǰȱęȱǰȱȱĚęȱȱȱ ȱşŖȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻAnoplo- ȱęǼǰȱęȱǻSebastes and Sebastolobus spp.ǼǰȱȱȱȱǻPleurogrammus monopterygius). ęȱȱǻHippoglossus stenolepisǼȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱęȱ - ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ- aged under an Individual Transferable Quota system since 1995. The species is found ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱęȱȱśŝǯŝȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǞŗřŚǯŜȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻȱǰȱ Status of and Climate Change Impacts to Commercial, Recreational, and Subsistence Fisheries in the U.S. 165

ŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŘŖǼǯȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱę¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ŚŞŜǰŖŖŖȱǯ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱ ǯȱȱȱŘŖȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ recruitment of the species have occurred that cannot be readily explained by changes in ȱ£ȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŗşşşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱǻǼȱǻȱȱŘȱȱ- Ǽȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ for halibut, and negative, or unproductive, phases every 25 to 35 years (Mantua et al., 1997). ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱǻParalithodes camtschatica), blue (P. platypus) and gold- ȱȱ ȱǻLithodes aequispinaǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǻChionoece- tes bairdiǼȱȱ ȱȱǻC. opilioǼǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱ ǯȱȱŗşŜŝǰȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱęȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşŝŚȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱŗşŞŖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗşŞŗǯȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ ŗşŜśȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱŗşŞřǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱŗşŞřǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱŗşŜśȬŗşŝśȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱŗşŝşȱ ȱȱȱȱŗşŞŚǯȱȱŗşŞŚǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȬȱȱȱ ŗşşŗǰȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŝǰȱ ȱȱȱȱę¢ȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşŝŖȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŞśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŗşŞşȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŞśǰȱȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŖǰȱȱȱȱ ȱŗşşşȱȱ ȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ ȱŘŖŖŝȬŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŘȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȬ ȱȱȱȱǞŗŖŝȱ- ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖŖşȱ ǯǯȱ ǲȱ Ȭȱȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŜȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ęȬ ȱȱȱȱǞŗŗŝȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ£ȱȱ¡ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱęȱ ȱ£ȱȱŘŖŖŚȬŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ the year to avoid molting, mating, and soft-shell periods to both protect crab resources ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱŗşŝŖȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŞśǯȱ ȱ- ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ ǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱŗŜŞǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȬ¢ȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ 166 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȬ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱŗşşŝȬŘŖŖŚȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǰȱ ŘŖŗŗǰȱ ȱ řŖŗǼǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖŗŖȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱŘŞśǼǯȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱęȬ ȱȱȱȱǞŗŝȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱ until a population dynamics model is available for an assessment. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖŖŘȱ ǻ ǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŚȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱŗşşśǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱĴ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗşşŞȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşŞŖȱȱȱ ŗşŞŞȱȱŗşşŘȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱŗşşŜȱ ǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŗşŞŖȱȱ ȱŗşŞŝȱȱŗşşŝȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŗşşŞȱȱŗşşşǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŗşŝşȬŗşŞŝȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱŗşŞŞȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ǰȱȦȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱȱĚȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱǻŘŖŖŜǼȱ¡ȱȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- late most strongly to decadal shifts in physical oceanography, particularly the Aleutian ȱȱ ¡ǰȱ¢£ȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ ȱ ǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱǻŘŖŖŗǼȱ¢£ȱȱȱȱȬĴȱȱ ȱ ȱȱŗşŝŜȦŝŝȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŗşşŖǼǰȱȱěȱȱǯȱ£ȱ ȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŚǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ Status of and Climate Change Impacts to Commercial, Recreational, and Subsistence Fisheries in the U.S. 167

ǰȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱǻ£ȱȱǯǰȱŗşşŞǰȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ǱȱȱǻOncorhynchus gorbuschaǼǰȱ¢ȱǻO. nerka), chum (O. keta), coho (O. kisutchǼǰȱȱȱǻO. tshawytscha). Each species spends most of its ocean life in the ěǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ě ȱ ȱ Ȧ ȱ Ěǰȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĜȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ęȱ¢ȱȱ¡¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȬŗşŝŖȱȱȱȱŗşşŖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ ǰȱ ŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ǻClupea pallasii) are harvested commercially ȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱęȱȱȱȱ PWS experiences high variability as a result of at least three main types of factors: large- scale environmental factors, smaller-scale environmental factors, and diseases such as viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus and parasite Ichthyophonus hoferiȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱĜĴǰȱ ŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱǯȱȱŗşŞŖǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȬȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȬȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢Ȭ£ȱȱȱȱŗşŝŞȬ ŗşŞŞǰȱŗşŞşȬŗşşŞȱȱȬŗşşŞȱȱȱȱęȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ recruitment events are variable. A large-year class occurs once every 9 or 10 years, and ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ ǻ ǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱȱȱȱřȱȱȱǼǯȱ

West coast ȱęȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱęǰȱęȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ęȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȬȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ 168 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱę¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱ ŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ŞşŚȱ ȱ ȱȱęęȱȱęȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŘşǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱŘśřȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŚȱȱǰȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱśŗȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱŗŚȱȱȱȱǞŚŞŞȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ęȱ ǻǞŗŘşȱ Ǽȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǞŗŘŚȱ Ǽǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǻřŝŘȱȱǼǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻŗşŞȱȱ ǼȱȱȱǻŗŜŚȱȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǞŘŘŞȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻǞŗśŖȱǼȱ ȱȱǻǞŗŖŘȱǼǯȱȱęȱȂȱȱ¢ȱȱǞŘŖȱȱ in sales impacts in California, $1.1 billion in sales impacts in Oregon, and $7.3 billion in sales impacts in Washington. California also generated the largest value added income ȱ¢ȱȱǻǞŚǯřȱǲȱǞŝǯŗȱǲȱŗŘŗǰŖŖŖȱǼȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ page 29). ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱŗǯŞȱȱȱȱȱŜǯřȱȱęȱȱȱȱ- ęȱȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱřŖǼǯȱȱŜŚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȂȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱęȱȱȱęȱǻŘǯŝȱȱęǼǰȱȱǻŘȱȱęǼǰȱ- ǰȱȱȱȱǻŗǯŜȱȱęǼȱȱȱȱǻŗǯśȱȱęǼȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ęȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱ¡- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŗŚǰŖŖŖȱȬȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱǻřǰřŖŖȱǼȱȱȱǻŗǰŜŖŖȱǼȱ ǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ Ȃȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ the contribution of these activities to gross domestic product (value-added impacts). In ŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǞŘȱȱȱȱǼǰȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱǻǞřŚŝȱǼȱȱȱǻǞŗŜŞȱǼȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱ page 30). ęȱȱǻSardinops sagaxǼȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǰȱ¡ǰȱȱ ǼǲȱȱȱȱǻěȱȱǼǲȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ¡ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǻǼȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ǰȱȱǯǯǰȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĚȱ¢ȱȱ variability on both inter-annual and decadal scales. Observed decadal-scale climate vari- ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǯǰȱŗşşŝǼǰȱěȱȱȱȱȂȱȱ Status of and Climate Change Impacts to Commercial, Recreational, and Subsistence Fisheries in the U.S. 169

ȱȱȱȱǻĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖśǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǲȱ£Ȭ£ȱȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǲȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȬŘǼǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱǻǯǯǰȱȱ ȱǯȱȱǲȱȱȬřǲȱ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŖǼȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡- ȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǲȱȱȱǰȱŘŖŖřǰȱŘŖŖŚǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱ ȱ- ǰȱȱȱęȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¡¢ȱěȱȱǰȱǯǯǰȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȬ ȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱĴȱ ȱȱȱȬę¢ȱȱȱȱ samples from the Southern California Bight (Baumgartner et al., 1992). Similarly, the ǯǯȱę¢ȱ ȱȱŝŖȬ¢ȱĴȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱŘŖth ¢ȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖřǰȱŘŖŖŚǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯ ȱȱȱĚȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǯǯȱęȱ ȱę¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȬŚǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǰȱȱȱȱ ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȬŚǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ based on a three-year average of SST observed at the Scripps Institution of Oceanogra- ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱĚȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǲȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ is no longer valid for predicting sardine reproductive success and should not be used in ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŘȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱ- ȱȱ£ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ to environmental conditions, the temperature relationship underlying the harvest con- ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱę- ing should be incorporated into its Coastal Pelagic Species Fishery Management Plan. In general, the motivation for an environmentally-based harvest-control rule is that ęȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ Ȭȱ- tions persist. The use of environmentally-based rules has advantages for responding to climate change. • ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ę¢ȱȱǲȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ę¢ȱȱȱŗşŚŖǰȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱǻ ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ • ȱȱȱ Ȭęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱĜ¢ȱȱȱȱ- tives for conservation. 170 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Figure A-2 Pacific sardine yield, abundance, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) through 2001. Sardine productivity is higher during the warm, positive phase of the PDO, and the collapse of the sardine stock that began in the 1940s has been attributed to a regime shift around 1945 (Source: M. Dalton, pers. comm.).

• Environmentally-based harvest control rules can potentially incorporate other ¢ȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱǯ

ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱęȱȱęȱ ȱǯȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ- ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȃȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱěȱȱȱǻȱȬśǼǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱęȱȱęȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ corresponding increase in economic activity and economic value. Status of and Climate Change Impacts to Commercial, Recreational, and Subsistence Fisheries in the U.S. 171

Figure A-3 Pacific sardine abundance and cumulative SST anomalies observed at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography pier in La Jolla, California (Source: S. Herrick, pers. comm.).

The second scenario assumes that an increase in ocean temperature results in a north- ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱǰȱ ȱȱęǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱęȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęǲȱȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱ ěȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱę¢ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱęȬȱ economic activity and economic value.

Northeast ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǼȱȱ ȱȬȱǻ ȱȱȱǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱŗǯřȱȱǰȱȱȱǞŗǯŘȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǞŘşŞȱǼȱȱȱȱȱǻǞŘŗŖȱǼǯȱ ȱȱȱŜśȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖȱȱȱ total landed pounds (NOAA Fisheries, 2010, page 50). Mid-Atlantic landings revenue 172 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Figure A-4 Pacific sardine harvest-control rule implements a decreasing exploitation fraction in cool years based on a 3-year moving average of sea surface temperatures (SST) at Scripps Pier, San Diego, California. ‘Harvest’ is the guideline harvest level in metric tons (mt), ‘Biomass’ is current biomass estimate, ‘Cutoff’ is the lowest level of estimated biomass at which harvest is allowed (150,000 mt), and ‘Fraction (SST)’ is the environmentally-based percentage of biomass above the cutoff that can be harvested (Source: M. Dalton, pers. comm.).

ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǞŗŜŘȱǼȱȱȱȱǻǞŞśȱǼǰȱȱśŝȱ percent of total landings revenue but only 15 percent of total landed pounds (NOAA ǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŝŚǼǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱ- ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘřŘȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǞŘśȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱǞŜȱȱȱǰȱȱǞŗŜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱśśȱȱŝŞǼǯ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻŚŘŜȱȱǼǰȱ- ȱ¢ȱĴȱǻřśŜȱȱǼȱȱȱǻŗŞśȱȱǼǯȱ- Ĵȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǞŚŖŖȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǻǞŘŞŜȱǼȱȱȱǻǞŗśřȱǼǯȱȱȱȂȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǞŗǯŘȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǞŜǯŝȱȱȱ- ĴǰȱǞŜśŗȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱǞşŖŜȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǞśŝȱȱȱ ǰȱǞŗǯŜȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǞśǯŞȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱśǯřȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱǞŗǯŝȱȱȱȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȬȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǻǞŗǯŝȱǲȱǞŘǯŜȱǲȱŝŝǰŞŘŖȱ ǼȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŜřǼǯ Status of and Climate Change Impacts to Commercial, Recreational, and Subsistence Fisheries in the U.S. 173

Figure A-5 The expected changes in the harvestable biomass and distribution of the northern Pacific sardine stock due to climate change. The harvestable biomass increases (lower left to upper right) and decreases (upper right to lower left, heavy arrows) depending on the duration of favorable climate conditions. The vertical lines show which fisheries become involved as the harvestable biomass increases and declines: left, at lowest harvestable biomass, is a Mexican (Mex)-only fishery; middle left is Mex and California (CA) fisheries; middle right is Mex, CA, Oregon (OR), Washington (WA) and Canadian (Can) fisheries; and the far right is Mex, CA, OR, WA, Can and Alaskan (AK) fisheries. (Source: Sam Herrick, NOAA).

ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǲȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ- ȱȱȬȱěȱ¢ȱęȱǻȱȱ.ǰȱŗşŞśǲȱ ȱȱ- ¢ǰȱ ŗşşŖǲȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ŗşŞŞǲȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǼȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ £ȱ ęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŗşŞřǰȱȱŗŞśȬŗşřǼȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻȱȱ.ǰȱŗşŞŜǰȱȱŚŝǼǯȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱĴǰȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱĴǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱ¡£ȱęȱǻǰȱŗşşŗǲȱǰȱŗşşŝǼȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱęǰȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱęǰȱȱęȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱǰȱ trip vessels, even if this means earning a more modest living (Maurstad, 2000). Festivals ȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǻȱȱȱ Fisheries, 2009b for examples from the Northeast). ȱęęȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ- ǰȱŗşşŘǼǰȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŖşȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ Ǽǯȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŗşşŝǼǯȱ ȱȱ 174 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ǰȱȱȱ.ȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱŘŞȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱřȱȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱśŚȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȬęęȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱ ǻȱȱ., ŘŖŖşǰȱȱśŚǼǯȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ- ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ŘŖŖşȱ ǻȱ ǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱȱȱǻȱęǼȱȱȱǞřŜǯŜȱȱ ȱřŖǯŞȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱǰȱşŘǯŗȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱǻȱȬŜǼǰȱŝǯřȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱŖǯŜȱ- ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱŚǯŝȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱȱŚǯŞȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱęȱę¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱęȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱę¢ȱȱȱȱǻŗǰřŚŝȱȱȱȱȱşŖŖȱ- ȱǼȱȱęȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖȱǻ ĴȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱǲȱȱŘŖŖşȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱŚŞřǰŖŖŖȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱŗǯŗȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱ the level of impact varies. Some research suggests that certain prey species may not ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱĜȱȱȱȱȱǻ ǰȱ ŗşşřǼǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǲȱ¢ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǰȱȱǯǯȱȱę- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱěȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ Ĵǰȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱŖǯŝȱȱ of total Mid-Atlantic landings revenue and 2 percent of Mid-Atlantic landed pounds ȱŘŖŖşȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ȱŗśȱȱęȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĚȱǻParalichthys dentatus) in the Mid-Atlantic. ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŝǼǯȱȱȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱ ȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŚśŘǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȃǽǾȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱ ǻŘŖŗŖȬŘŗŖŖǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŜŖȬŗŖŖȱ- ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱśŖȬŗŖŖȱȱ ǯȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱřŖȬŗŖŖȱǯȄȱȱȱ st ȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 emissions into the 21 ȱ¢ǰȱȱęȱȱȱ

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱę¡ȱ2 concentration of 350 Status of and Climate Change Impacts to Commercial, Recreational, and Subsistence Fisheries in the U.S. 175

Figure A-6 Gloucester, MA Stern Trawler (Source: http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/htmls/fish0533.htm).

ppm, the second is the B1 scenario that assumes an increase in CO2 to 550 ppm, and the third is the A1B scenario that assumes an increase in CO2 to 720 ppm (IPCC, 2007b). ȱȱȱǰȱȱę¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱ- ǰȱȱ ǰȱȱĴǯȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖśǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯ ȱęȱȱȱȬȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǰȱ ȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱǻŗşşşǼȱȱȱȱȱǻŗşşşǼȱȱȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ę¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱęȱȱ ȱȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱ¡ȱȱ ȱȱǼȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ǻȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼȱȱęȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱęǯ

Pacific Islands ȱ ȂǰȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱŘŝȱȱȱȱęęȱȱ- ęǰȱȱȱǞŝŗȱǯȱȱȱȱȱŜŝȱȱǻǞŚŞȱǼȱȱȱ 176 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱȱśŚȱȱȱȱȱǻŗśȱȱǲȱȱǰȱ ŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŗŖŖǼǯȱ ęȱǻǞŝǯřȱǰȱřǰŞŞŗȱǼǰȱȱȱǻǞŘǯşȱǰȱŗǰŘŞŝȱ ǼǰȱęȱǻǞŘǯŚȱǰȱŗǰŞŞŚȱǼǰȱȱȱǻǞŘǯŗȱǰȱŗǰŜŝŞȱǼȱ also contributed to the region’s overall landings. In terms of overall economic impacts, ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ȃȱ ȱȱȱŗŚȱȱǰȱǞŗǯřȱ- ȱȱǰȱǞřŜşȱȱȱǰȱȱǞśŚŜȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ (NOAA Fisheries, 2010, pages 100 and 120). ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȂǰȱŘǯŘȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŚǰŘŞŜȱǰȱǞŚŜŖǯŞȱȱȱǰȱǞŘŘŞǯŜȱȱ in value added from the industry, and $150.9 million in income (NOAA Fisheries, 2010, ȱŚŝǼǯȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Ȃȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ ęǯ

Southeast ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱǰȱ- ȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱ ȱŗǯśȱȱǰȱȱȱǞŝŝřǯŚȱǯȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻǞřśǯřȱǼȱȱȱǻǞřŘǯŝȱ ǼǯȱȱȱȱŚŝȱȱȱȱȱȱȱśŗȱȱ of total landed pounds (NOAA Fisheries, 2010, page 100). Gulf landings revenue came ¢ȱȱȱǻǞřŘŚǯŝȱǼǲȱ ǰȱȱȱȱśŗȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱŗŝǯŚȱȱȱȱȱȱ (NOAA Fisheries, 2010, page 120). The next most economically-important species in the ȱ ȱ¢ȱǻǞŝŘȱȱȱŗŗǯśȱǼȱȱȱǻǞŜŖǯŜȱȱȱşǯŜȱ- cent). In terms of overall economic impacts, in 2009, the seafood industry in the Southeast ȱ ȱȱȱŘŗŖȱȱǰȱǞřŘǯŞȱȱȱǰȱǞŜǯśȱȱȱǰȱ and $11.2 billion in value added from such activities as processing (NOAA Fisheries, 2010, pages 100 and 120). In addition, Adams et al. (2009) reported that the Gulf region ȱ ŘŖǰŚŝŖȱ ȱ ęȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ¡¢ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȂȱȱĚȱȱŘŖŖřǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱŘśȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢Ȭȱęȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ĵȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǯǯǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱ value of resources extracted from, or value of services generated as a result of, proximity ȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱǞŝŜȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǞŘŞǯśŖȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ǞŝŖŖȱȱȱęȱȱŘŖŖřǯ In terms of pounds landed, Louisiana contributed the most by far (1 billion pounds), ȱ¢ȱȱǻŘřŖȱȱǼȱȱ¡ȱǻŗŖŖȱȱǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǞŘŞŚȱȱȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱ by Florida ($157 million) and Texas ($150 million). The Southeast region’s seafood industry generated $13 billion in sales impacts in Florida, $1.7 billion in Texas, $1.7 billion in ǰȱǞŗȱȱȱ ǰȱǞŝŖŖȱȱȱȱǰȱǞŚŖŖȱȱȱǰȱ $300 million in Mississippi, and $70 million in South Carolina (NOAA Fisheries, 2010). Status of and Climate Change Impacts to Commercial, Recreational, and Subsistence Fisheries in the U.S. 177

Florida also generated the largest value-added income and employment impacts ($2.5 ǲȱǞŚǯřȱǲȱŜŚǰŝŚŚȱǼȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱŗŖŘǼǯ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱŗşǯŗȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱǰȱ- ȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱśŗǰřŗŚȱǰȱǞśǯŜȱȱȱǰȱǞŗǯŞȱȱȱ value added from the industry, and $2.9 billion in income (NOAA Fisheries, 2010, page ŗŖŗǼǯȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱĴȱǰȱȱȱęǯȱ ȱȱ ǰȱŘŘǯřȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱşŘǰŘŚŗȱǰȱǞşǯşȱȱȱǰȱǞřǯřȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ $5.1 billion in income (NOAA Fisheries, 2010, page 121). In addition, charter and party ȱȱȱȱȱȃȱǞŗŚşǯśȱȱȱȱǰȱǞŜŞǯśȱ ȱȱǰȱȱřǰŚŞŝȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢Ȅȱ ǻȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱřşǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŚǰȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȱŝǯřȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŘśǯŜȱȱęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡¢ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǻ- ȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱĴȱǰȱȱ red drum and sand and silver seatrouts are also caught in substantial numbers. ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱǯȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǰȱȱŝśǼǰȱ ȃĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǽ Ǿȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ǯȄȱȱȱęȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǻŘŖŖşǼȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱęȱȱ¡ǰȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǞŘǯŘȱȱȱǞŘǯŞȱȱȱŘŖŖŚǯ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǰȱȱŚŝǼȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ special area have been intensifying for many years … and the economies of the Gulf ȱȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȂȱȱǰȄȱ ȱȱȱȱę¢ȱěȱ¢ȱȱǯ Changes in the Gulf of Mexico marine environment have the potential to change the ¡ȱȱȱǲȱǰȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ěǯȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖśǼȱ¡ȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ- ȱĚȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ĵȱǻŘŖŖşǰȱȱ ŘśȮŘŜǼȱǰȱȃȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ- ȱ ȱȱ£ȱȱ ȱ¡¢ǰȱȱ¢¡ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǽ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǾǳǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ǯȄ 178 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

A.4 Subsistence Fisheries

For generations, subsistence harvesting of marine resources has been important to rural ȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- lihoods. In addition to providing basic nutrition and sustenance, subsistence activities ȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ Ȭ being, family structures, and resource conservation. Based on the numerous physical and biological changes that are occurring in the ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱȱŘȱȱřǼǰȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱęȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱǰȱǰȱęȱȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ęǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ ¢ȱ ȱ .ǰȱ ŗşşşǼǯȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱęȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ - lach et al., 2011). Perhaps most importantly, subsistence resource users are typically the least mobile constituency of all marine resource users due to their strong, place-based cultural identi- ties and/or limited incomes. Partly because of this, many subsistence resource users fall ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱŗŘŞşŞȱǻśşȱȱŝŜŘşǰȱŗşşŚǼǰȱȃȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Ȭ ȱǯȄȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯ

North Pacific ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ¢ǯȱ Northern people have relied for millennia on the landscape for their food through a ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ęǰȱ ȱ Ȭȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱęǰȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱ ęȱǻCaulolatilus princeps) is the no- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǻȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŚǰȱǰȱŗşŞŜǰȱǰȱŗşŜşǰȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǯȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱĜ¢Ȭȱȱę- ȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱǰȱęǰȱȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ¢ǲȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ are more reliant on harvesting marine mammals. Status of and Climate Change Impacts to Commercial, Recreational, and Subsistence Fisheries in the U.S. 179

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ě ȱ ȱ Ȃȱ ȱ ǻȱ ȬŝǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱŘŖŖŞǰȱ ŘřǰŝŞŖȱȱȬęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱşŞşǰŘŜŜȱ ǰȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ in 177 communities around the state (Fall et al., 2011). ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱǻ Ǽȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱ ȱŘŖŖşǰȱȱȱŝŝȱȱȱ¢ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŚŚǰşŞşȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŞśŗǰśŝşȱȱǻȱȱ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ A-7). ȱŘŖŖŘȱȱŘŖŖŝǰȱȱȱśŜȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱȬŝǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱŞŗŖǰŝśŝȱęȱǻŗǰŚŖŚǰŘŗŝȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȬ- Ȭęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ŘŖŖŖȱ ȱ ŘŖŖŝǰȱ ȱ ȱ řŘȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ Ǽȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǰȱřŘǰŚŝŞȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŞřǰŖřřȱȱ ȱ ȱǻ ǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ- ȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻȱȬŞǼǯȱ ȱŘŖŗŖǰȱȱȱŗřȱ polar bears (Ursus maritimusǼǰȱŜŝŞȱ ȱǻOdobenidae divergensǼȱȱşŜşȱȱĴȱǻEn- hydra lutris kenyoniǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻDelphinapterus leucasǼȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱŘŘŘȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŜȱǻȱȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱȱŚǰȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ǰȱȱ ȱ ǰȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ£ǯ

Other subsistence fisheries ȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯǯȱ¡ǰȱȱȱȱȬȱęȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱęȱȱȱęǯȱȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱȱęȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ǯ 180 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

West coast Native Americans have harvested marine resources along the West Coast for centuries. ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ ǻȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱśŖȱ¢Ȭ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŘşȱȱ- ǰȱŗŖȱȱȱȱŗŗȱȱǼǰȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȦȱ- ¢ȱȱȱȱǰȱę¢ȱęȱǯȱȱǰȱŘŖȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ resources (NOAA Fisheries, 2009a). ȱ¡ęȱ¢ȱȱȱȂȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ŞŖȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ£ǰȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱǰȱ ȱ¢ǰȱşşȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱǻ£ǰȱŘŖŖŗǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǲȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ on a vast array of marine resources for subsistence near their reservations or traditional ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ- vests such as Dungeness crab (Cancer magisterǼǰȱǰȱȱǻPanopea abrupta), but- ter clams (Saxidomus giganteus), and manila clams (Corbicula manilensis). In central Puget ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ- tence purposes. Tribes in the southern reaches of Puget Sound rely primarily on chum ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ cultural context and values of each tribe are intimately tied to salmon harvests and consumption. In addition, members of many tribes collect salmon for ceremonial purposes ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱĴȱ ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ for reporting are often absent. These realities lend themselves to absent or underreported subsistence harvest data through the states’ formal reporting programs. Figure A-10 de- ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡¢ȱ 25 percent of their total catch for personal consumption (Impact Assessment, 2005). ȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǻȱȬşǼǯȱ ȱȱ- dance is considered to be one of the main factors in this decline (Impact Assessment, ŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱŘŖȱȱŚŖȱȱ¢ȱŘŖśŖȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱěȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǻĴȱȱ., 2007). Given that so many tribes depend on salmon for ȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯǯȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱ of tribal communities (Colombi, 2009). ȱȱȱęęȱȱęǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ Status of and Climate Change Impacts to Commercial, Recreational, and Subsistence Fisheries in the U.S. 181

A B

C D

Figure A-7a–d Relative harvests of non-salmon fish, salmon, marine invertebrates, and halibut in subsistence reliance communities around Alaska. Points on the maps represent species group harvests in individual communities. The point size varies based on the relative harvest of each community’s residents compared to all other communities harvesting that species group in the state. (Source: Amber Himes-Cornell, NOAA).

ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǻȱȱ¢ǰȱŘŖŖŚǼǯȱ In addition to the subsistence harvests of marine resources by tribal entities, subsistence harvests by non-tribal individuals on urban and rural coastal piers throughout ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱ ȱ ȱǰȱŘŖŖśǲȱǰȱŘŖŖřǼǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱ Ȭǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱŗŘŞşŞȱǻȱ ȱǰȱȱ ǼǯȱȱȬęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ 182 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

A B

C D

Figure A-8a–d Relative harvests of walrus, beluga whales, polar bears, and sea otters in subsistence reliance communities around Alaska. Points on the maps represent species group harvests in individual communities. The point size varies based on the relative harvest of each community’s residents compared to all other communities harvesting that species group in the state. (Source: Amber Himes- Cornell, NOAA).

ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱĴǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ exists to document these activities. Extant data on non-tribal subsistence and personal ȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǻ ȱǰȱŘŖŖŚǲȱȱȱǰȱȱ Ǽǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęǰȱ Řŝȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱǻȱ ȱǰȱȱ Ǽǯ Status of and Climate Change Impacts to Commercial, Recreational, and Subsistence Fisheries in the U.S. 183

Figure A-9 Total number of salmon taken by Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission tribes (Source: Impact Assessment, 2005).

Northeast ȱȱȱęȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯǯȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱę¢ȱȱȱ¢¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ- ȱȱ.ǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯȱȱȱ.ȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱę¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱ ȱ¡ǰȱȱ¢Ȭȱęȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȬǯ ȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖşǼȱȱȱŘŞȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ- timated 33 percent rely on their catch as a cost-saving food source or as a supplement ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ (72 percent), half reported using at least some of their catch for personal consumption. 184 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱ ȱ .ȱ ǻŘŖŖşǼȱ ȱ ȱ ¡¢ȱ ŝŞřǰŖŖŖȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǯǯȱǰȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȬȱęȱȱǰȱŗŘŝǰŖŖŖȱȱȱ Ȭȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱŗŖśǰŖŖŖȱȱȱȬȱęȱȱ- ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱŗǯŘŘȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱŜşǯŞȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱśŚǯŘȱȱȱȱǲȱ ǰȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȬȱȱ- ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȬȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱ ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ minority. ȱ ȱ . (2009) also noted that approximately 12 percent of anglers in the ȱ ȱ Ȭęęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ęǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻŗŜǯśȱǼȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱęęȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ęęȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖŖśȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻMorone saxatilisǼǰȱȱĚȱǻParalichthys dentatusǼǰȱęȱǻPomatomus saltatrixǼǰȱȱȱǻMicropogonias undulatus), and ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻCentropristis striataǼǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŝśȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ consumed species.

Pacific Islands ¢ȱȱ Ȃȱȱęȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ Ȃǰȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȬȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱęǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱĜǯȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǰȱȬȱ ęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǰȱ or even the trip. ȱ Ȃǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǻ £ǰȱŘŖŖŘǲȱǰȱŗşşŜǼǯȱȱ Ěȱȱȱȱȱ Ȃȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱǻȱǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ- ȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ¡ǯȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŜȱ¢ȱȱŚŖŖȱ ȱ ȱęȱǻȱȱĜǰȱŘŖŗŗǼǰȱ¢ȱŚŖȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱęȱȱęȱȱȱȱȂȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱǯȱȱȱŘŝȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ most of their trips, 25 percent for some of their trips, and less than 10 percent said that ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱǯ ȱȬȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ £ǰȱŘŖŖŘǼǰȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ.ȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱȱȱřŞȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ¢ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱşŝȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱ Status of and Climate Change Impacts to Commercial, Recreational, and Subsistence Fisheries in the U.S. 185

ȱȱęȬȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŜŘȱȱ ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŗşşŚǼȱȱȱŘŞȱ- ȱȱȂȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱřŞȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱȱȱȽȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- curement, including exercise, recreation, time spent in nature, a sense of environmental ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱ is a basis for sharing and gift-giving as both a process of reciprocity and providing re- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǰȱȱȱ continue to provide a source of food for a variety of celebrations and events, further cul- ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱ Ȃǰȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȬȱ Ěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱęȱ ȱȱȱȱęǯ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ their catch for personal consumption. A 2011 survey of Marianas archipelago commer- ȱęȱǻ ȱȱǰȱŘŖŗŘǼȱȱǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱǻŞŚȱǼǰȱȱ ĴęȱęȱǻŞşȱǼǰȱȱȱȱęȱǻşŘȱǼȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŘȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǻŘşȱ Ǽȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱ ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻřřȱǼȱ ȱ ȱȱǻŘśȱǼȱȱȱȱȱǻŞȱǼȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęǰȱȱȱŗşȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱŘŚȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱŞȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱ- munity or cultural events. ȱȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱęǰȱȂȱǻŘŖŖŗǼȱȱȱěȱęȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŜśȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęǲȱȱǰȱȱ- ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱǻŗŞȱǼȱ ȱ ȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱęȱȱǻŗŜȱǼȱ ȱȱȱ ȱęǯȱȱȱȱǻśŗȱǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱęȱǻşŜȱǼȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ęȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǻřŜȱ Ǽǰȱ ȱ ǻŗřȱ ǼǰȱȱȱǻŚŝȱǼǯ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȬŗşŞŖǰȱȱȬȱȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱǻ ǰȱŗşŞŝǼǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱǲȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ 186 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǻ¢ȱȱ Ȭ ǰȱŗşŞşǼǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ to the subsistence needs of the Chamorro population and in preserving their history ȱ¢ȱǻȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȂȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȬȱȱęȱǻ¢ȱȱ ȬǰȱŗşŞşǼǯ ȱ ęȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ŘŖŖśȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ŚŘśȱȱȱřŚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱśśȱȱȱȱęȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱǻ ȱȱ.ǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻǰȱŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱ£ȱęǰȱ¢ǰȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ as a food source is one that might be expected from a society that has been undergoing a shift from a subsistence-oriented economy to a cash economy (Levine and Allen, 2009); ǰȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱatule and paloloȱȱȱȱ£ȱ ȱ£ȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱǻŘŖŖŝǼȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱ ěǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ¡ȱęȱǼǯ

Southeast ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱȱǰȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ subsistence livelihoods today (NOAA Fisheries, 2009a). Coastal counties and parishes ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ - ȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ ǰȱŗşŞşǼǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱǰȱ ęǰȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǻ ǰȱŗşŞşǲȱȱǰȱŘŖŖşǼǯ References

ǰȱǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŖǻŚǼǰȱǰȱ ¢ǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱȬǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȬ indigenous species Gracilaria vermiculophylla ǻ¢ǼȱȱȱȱĴȱȱȱ de Aveiro lagoon, Portugal. European Journal of Phycology 46ǰȱŚśřȬŚŜŚǯ Acclimatise 2009a. Understanding the investment implications of adapting to climate change - oil and gas.ȱ¡ǰȱǯ ǯǱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Acclimatise 2009b. ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ¡ǰȱǯ ǯǱȱȱȱȱȱ- ment Ltd. ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱCapturing the Commons: Devising Institutions to Manage the Maine Lobster Industryǯȱ ȱȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱǯ Adger, N. W., 2003. Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change. Economic GeographyȱŝşȱǻŚǼǱȱřŞŝȬŚŖŚǯ ȱǯǯǰȱ ¡ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯB., Wilson, C.D., Pierce, S. & Francis, R.C. 2007. ȱȱęȱǱȱȱȱȱǯȱJournal of Marine Systems ŝŗ, ŘřŝȬŘŚŞǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǭȱ ¡ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǻMerluccius productusǼȱȱȱ ȱȬȱ Ě ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱCanadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Ŝř, ŘŜŚŞȬŘŜśşǯ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ ǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱǻ Ǽǯȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ - ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱĴǯȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦ Ȧǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ Ĵǰȱǯǰȱ £Ȃǰȱǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǰȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖȱȱŘŗȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱǯȱ £¢ȱAtmospheric and Oceanic Physics ŚřǰȱŜŝśȬŜŞŜǯ ¡ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ £ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ěȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ River Basin, Environmental Science and Technology ŚŘǰȱŞŘŘȬŞřŖǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱęȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȬŖŞȬŖŗǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯ ǰȱǯȱǯȱȱ ǯȱĜǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ ŗřǰȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȬǯȱȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǻȱǯȱǯȱ ¢Ǽǰȱ¢Ȭ ǰȱ¡ǰȱ ǯȱǱȱŗŖǯŗŖŖŘȦşŝŞŖŚŝŖşŜŖşŜŝǯŗŝ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱEcological Applications ŗřǰȱŞȬŘŚǯ £ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ biodiversity. Trends in Ecology and Evolution ŗŞǰȱśŞşȬśşŜǯ

187 188 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

£Ȭǰȱǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱâ·ǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱĴȱȱ- ȱȱǱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱ¡¢ǯȱProceedings of the Royal ¢ȱ ŘŝŜ, 3019-3025. ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱŚŖȱǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǯǰȱȱǯȱǯȱ ȬǯȱŗşŞşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ ǯȱ Micronesian Archaeological Research Services, Guam. ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖşȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ Ǳȱȱȱ the Arctic Marine Environment. Anand, G., Science. 283ǰȱŘŖŝŝȬŘŖŝşȱǻŗşşşǼǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱǯȱȱȱȱŗǱȱŗŜśȬŗŜşǯ

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ȱȱ¡Ȅȱǻǯȱǯȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ ǯȱǰȱǯǼǰȱǯȱśŞǰȱǰȱŘŝȬřŚǯȱ ȱ Society Publication. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱRegional Impacts of Climate Change: Four Case Studies in the United StatesǯȱǰȱǱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱśŚȬŝŖǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱȱ£ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǭȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱ ŘŖŖŞǯȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢¡ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴȱřśǰȱŗŘŜŖŝǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴȱřŜǰȱŖŗŜŖŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱȱǯǰȱȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱThe Politics of Crisis Management: Public Leader- ship Under Pressure. Ǳȱȱ¢ȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ Ĵǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȬǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ - Ĵǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǵȱJournal of Climate ŗşǰȱřŚŚśȬřŚŞŘǯ ǰȱǯȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǯȱĴǰȱȱ ǯȱǰȱŘŖŖŚǱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ǯȱ¢ǯȱǯǰȱřŚǰȱřřŚȬřŚŗǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ Ǳȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱ Warming. ȱě ŞŝǰȱŜřȬŝŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŞǯȱ¡ȱȱ- tees (Trichechus manatus latirostrisǼȱȱȱŗşşŜȱ£Ǳȱǰȱǰȱȱ- histochemical features. Toxicologic Pathology ŘŜǰȱŘŝŜȬŘŞŘǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱ the Florida manatee cold stress syndrom. Aquatic Mammals Řş, 9-17. ¢ǰȱǯȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱŚŜŜǰȱśşŗȬśşŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ£ǰȱǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȬ- ȱȱȱ¡Ȭ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ species respond?ȱȱśǰȱŞŚŝȬŞŜŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱ rate in native and invasive species of blue mussels (genus Mytilus). Journal of Experimental ¢ȱŘŖşǰȱŘśśŚȬŘśŜŜǯ Bradley, P.A., Fore, L.S., Fisher, W.S., & Davis, W.S. 2010. Coral reef biological criteria: using the Clean Water Act to protect a national treasure.ȱȦŜŖŖȦȬŗŖȦŖśŚǰȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŖǯȱĴǰȱ Ǳȱ ǯǯȱȱȱ¢ǰȱĜȱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱJournal of Marine Systems ŝşǰȱřŞşȬŚŖŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱ£ǰȱǰȱǯǯ ǯǰȱȱǰȱǯ ǯ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱǰȱȱŘŞŘǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻ Ǽǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǭȱ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ȭ¢ȱǯȱOceanography ŘŘǰȱŞŜȬşřǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱěǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱěȱȱ Nutrient Enrichment in the Nation’s Estuaries: A Decade of Change. NOAA Coastal Ocean Program Decision Analysis Series No. 26. Silver Spring, MD: Nation Centers for Coastal Ocean Science. ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱěȱŝǻŘǼǱŚŝŝȬŚŞŚǯ References 193

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CO2 in a green alga. Nature ŚřŗǰȱśŜŜȬśŜşǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱAnthropology and Climate Change: From Encounters to ActionsȱǰȱǯȱǭȱĴǰȱǯȱǻǯǼǯȱȱǰȱǱȱ ȱȱǰȱŗŞŜȬŗşŜǯ ǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ AMSR-E, SSM/I, and SMMR data. Journal of Geophysical Research, ŗŗř, C02S07. 198 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ǰȱ ǯȱǯǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱȱǯȱȱǻŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ¢ǯȱǯȱĴǯǰȱřśǰȱŖŗŝŖřǰȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŝ ŖřŗşŝŘǯ ĴȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱęȱȱȱ ¢¡ȱȱ ǯǯȱȱǯȱ ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱǰȱ ¢¡ǰȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱǰȱ DC.

ǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱ2 and temperature on non- ¢ȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ Proceedings of ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ŘŝŝǰȱŗŚŖşȬŗŚŗśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŗşşŞǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱPerkinsus marinusȱǻǼȱȱ£- otics in oysters. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 46ǰȱśŞŝȬśşŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱęȂȱȱȱȱ ȱęǯȱȱȱĴ 4ǰȱŖŘŚŖŖŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ Ȭ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱęȂȱȱȱȱȱ marine ecosystem services. Oceanography ŘŘǰȱŗŝŘȬŗŞŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱęȱ ȱ (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) recruitment. Aquatic Mammals řŘǰȱşŞȬŗŖŘǯ ǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱŗşşŗǯȱȬȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ǯȱScience ŘśŚ, şşŘȬşşŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱȱȁǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱęȱȱ massive Poritesȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱGlobal Change ¢ ŗŚǰȱśŘşȬśřŞǯȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȯȱȱȱ South Indian Lagoon. Global Environmental Change ŗŞǰȱŚŝşȬŞşǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱĚȱ ȱęǱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ ȱǰȱǯȱǯǰȱ£ǰȱ ǯȱȱȂǰȱ ǯȱǻǼȱǻŘŖŖşȱȱǼȱȱȱ ȱǱȱǰȱǰȱ ǯȱȱ¢ȱǱȱǯ Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 2010. Memorandum from on Draft NEPA Guidance ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǯȱŗŞǰȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱǰȱ- dance and biomass on the southeastern Bering Sea shelf during summer: the potential role ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱȱĚȱȱ ȱȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȬ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǻ ǼǰȱȱŘřȱȬȱŘśǰȱŘŖŖŞǰȱĴǱȱŘŜǯȱǻ- ȱȱ ǯǯǼǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ- ȱęȱȱȱȱȮȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȮȱȱęȱ ǯȱȱȱ ǰȱǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱĴȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ ¢ȱǯȱNatural Resources and Environment ŘŚǰȱŗŚȬŗŞǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȮȱȱȱǱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱHarvard Environmental Law Review řŚ, 9-75. ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱ human stressors in marine systems. ¢ȱĴ ŗŗǰȱŗřŖŚȬŗřŗśǯ References 199

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ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱřŗśǱȱ ŗŜŝşȬŗŜŞŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱŗşŞśǯȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱAnnual Review of Ecology and Systematics ŗŜ, ŘŗśȬŘŚśǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ demography: the role of oceanographic climate. Ecological Monographs Ŝş, 219-250. ȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱěǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱ£ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȬ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱDiversity and Distributions ŗŝ, ŗŗşŞȬŗŘŖşǯ ȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱǱȱȱǰȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱśřŝǰȱǰȱ ¢Ǳȱȱȱ- ȱ£ȱȱȱȱǰȱǯȱŗřŝȬŘŗśǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ¢¡ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱĴȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱȱȱŘŖŖŗȱȱŘŖŖŘǯȱNortheastern NaturalistȱŗřǰȱŗŝřȬŗşŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱãǰȱ ǯȬǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱęǱȱȱ ȱȱ recommendations for future research. ICES Journal of Marine Science ŜŞ, 1019-1029. ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ecological events. Ecological Monographs ŝşǰȱřşŝȬŚŘŗǯ ǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- spheric circulation forcing, 1979-2007. ¢ȱȱĴ řśǰȱŖŘśŖŚǯ Dessler, A.E. 2011. Cloud variations and the Earth’s energy budget. ¢ȱȱĴ řŞ, L19701. ǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȬȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱŞȬŗȬŘřǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯȦȦȦŝ¡Ś¡Ŗ¡ ȱ ȱ£ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Current System: Dynamics and ecosystem implications Journal of Physical Oceanography řś, řřŜȬřŜŘǯ ȱ£ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱȱǯǯȱǰȱŘŖŖşǱȱȱ- annual variability of the Florida Current: Wind forcing and the North Atlantic oscillation. Journal of Physical OceanographyǰȱřşǻřǼǱŝŘŗȬŝřŜǯ £ȱǯ ǯȱǭȱȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢¡ȱǯȱ Ǳȱȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱǻǯǼǰȱȱ¢¢ǰȱ ¢¡ǯȱǯȱŘŝǯȱȱǰȱǰȱǯȱǯŗȬŘřǯ £ǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ Science řŘŗǰȱşŘŜȬşŘşǯ £ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŗşşśǯȱȱȱ¢¡Ǳȱȱ ȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ behavioural responses of benthic macrofauna. ¢ȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱ Review, řřǰȱŘŚśȬřŖřǯ £Ȭǰȱ ǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱ Ȭ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ ȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ Journal of Phycology ŚŞ, 32-39.

£Ȭǰȱ ǯǰȱ £ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱ2 enhances the ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱĴ ŗŚǰȱŗśŜȬŗŜŘǯ £Ȭǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱěǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱ Ȭ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱPLoS ONE 4, e5239. References 201

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of anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 system in the oceans. Science řŖśǰȱřŜŘȬřŜŜǯ 204 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱǯȱȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱŗşşŚȬŘŖŖřǯȱNatural Resource Modeling ŘŘǻŗǼǱŗŖśȬŗřŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȬǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱ

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¢ǰȱǯǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ2, N2ȱę¡ǰȱȱ Fe limitation in the marine unicellular cyanobacterium Crocosphaera. Limnology and Oceanog- raphy śřǰȱŘŚŝŘȬŘŚŞŚǯ

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£ǰȱǯǰȱ Ĵǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǭȱ- ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱěȱȱȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻMytilus edulis). ŝǰȱŘŖśŗȬŘŖŜŖǯ £ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ Ĵǰȱ ǯȬǯǰȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱ

of elevated CO2ȱȱęȱęǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴ řŚǰȱŝŜŖřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱĴǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȁ ȂȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱǰȱ and Clyde River, Nunavut, Canada. Ambio řś, 203-211. ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ Spartina patens and its ecological role? Oecologia ŗŜŚǰȱŚŝşȬŚŞŝǯ Gerlach, S.C., P.A. Loring, and A.M. Turner. 2011. Food Systems, Climate Change, and Commu- ¢ȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŘŖǰȱǯȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱǯȱǰȱ Ǳȱ¢ȱ ȱȱǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ¡ǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖŝȱ record ice extent minimum. ¢ǯȱȱĴǯ řś, L22502. ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ£ǰȱǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ ŘŖǻŗǼǰȱŗśŚȬŗśşǯ èǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŗşşŝǯȱǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱJournal of Marine Science śŚǰȱŗŖŖşȬŗŖŗŚǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱĵǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǭȱ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǱȱȬ¡ȱȱȱŗşşřȱǯȱ Emerging Infectious Diseases 6ǰȱŘřŞȬŘŚŝǯ Gleeson, M.W., & Strong, A.E. 1995. Applying MCSST to coral reef bleaching. Advances in Space Research ŗŜǰȱŗśŗȬŗśŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻHomarus americanus) ȱĴȱȱ Ǳȱȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ- tion. ȱȱȱ¢ ŘŜǰȱŜřşȬŜŚśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱĴǰȱǯǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱ ¢£ǰȱ ǯǰȱ - ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǭȱęǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱǯȱJournal of Geophysical Research ŗŖş, C12S02. ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŜǯȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱěȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱEOS, ŝŝǰȱŘřřȬŘřŜǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱA new era for conservation: review of climate change adaptation literature. Washington, DC: National Wildlife Federation. ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱǻǼǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ£Ǳȱȱȱȱ climate change vulnerability assessment. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, DC. ĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦ ȬȬ£ȦȬȦȦȦŘŖŗŗȦȬ Ȭ £ǯ¡ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱǯȱǰȱȱ ȱǯȱǰȱǻǯǼǯȱȱ¢ȱǰȱŘŖŖşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱě¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱŘŖŖřǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱȱȱ¢ȱŜǱȱřŚşȬřşŗǯ 208 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ǰȱǯȱȱǰȱ ǯȱŗşşřǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱŗŗȱ ȱȱ ǯȱClinical Infectious DiseaseȱŗŜǱȱŜşȬŝŚǯ ȱ ǰȱ ĵȱǰȱ£ȱǰȱȱ ǰȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǯȱA biometeorology study of climate and heat-related morbidity in Phoenix from 2001 to 2006. ȱ ȱȱ¢. ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱȱȱȱ- tion (density)cdatabase for 1700-2000. Population and Environment ŘŜǰȱřŚřȬřŜŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯǯ ǯȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ¢- atology and changing epidemiology of domoic acid toxicosis in California sea lions (Zalo- phus californianusǼǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱŘŝśǻŗŜřŘǼǱȱŘŜŝȬŘŝŜǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯ ǯȱ ¢ǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ŗŖŜǱȱşřŗŜȬşřŘŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA ŗŖŜ, şřŗŜȬşřŘŗǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱŗŝŞŗǯȱNature Geoscience ŗǰȱŞŚŚȬŞŚŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ¢£ȱȱ population dynamics over continental scales. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA ŗŖŝǰȱŞŘŞŗȬŞŘŞŜǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱMarine Policy řŚ, ŜŖŜȬŜŗśǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱEcosystems ŝǰȱřŚŗȬřśŝǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱFood webs and the dynamics of marine benthic ecosystems. McClanahan, T.R. & ǰȱ ǯǯȱǻǯǼǰȱ¡ǰȱǯ Ǳȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǰȱŗŖřȬŗřŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ¤£ǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱMacro- cystis: from ecotypes to ecosystems. ¢ȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱ ȱŚś, řşȬŞŞǯ ǰȱǯǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǯǰȱ¡ǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ Dynamic fragility of oceanic coral reef ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA ŗŖřǰȱŞŚŘśȬŞŚŘşǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ¡ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ Ȭȱȱ¢¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęǯȱNature ŚŘşǰȱŝŚşȬŝśŚǯ ǰȱ ǯȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱřŗŗȱǻśŝŜŜǼȱǻȱŗŖǼǱȱŗŚŜŗȬŗŚŜŚǯȱǱŗŖǯŗŗŘŜȦǯŗŗŘŗřŜśǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ on the ecology of the North Atlantic. Ecology ŞşǰȱŘŚȬřŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ forecasting midsummer hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Ecological Applications ŗşǰȱŗŗŜŗȬŗŗŝśǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱThe potential impacts of climate change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States. Environmental Health Perspectives ŗŖşǰŗŞśȬŗŞşǯȱ References 209

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¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŞȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 ȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŗȱśŞȬŝŗ ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǯȱ¡ǰȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖśǼǯȱȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ

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ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢Ȭȱȱȱȱ£ǯȱOcean & Coastal Manage- ment śŗ, 203-211. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱȂǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ¡ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ impact on marine ecosystems. Science řŗşǰȱşŚŞȬşśŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯȱȱǰȱǯǯǰȱŘŖŖřǯȱ ȂȱȬȬȱǱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱśŜǻřǼǰȱǯŘŝŗȬŘŞŘǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȃ¢¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȄȱȱŜŘȱǻŗǼǱȱŞřȬşśǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱȱ Ǳȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ- ǰȱȱȱǯȱŘŖǱȱŗśŝȬŗŜŘǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǭȱǰȱ ǯ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ¡¢ȱȱȱȱ Baltic Sea. BALANCE Interim Report No. 17 ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱ trace gases. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engi- neering Sciences řŜśǰȱŗşŘśȬŗşśŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ěǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȬȱǱȱ guidance and case studies. ȱ¢ ŘŚǰȱŜřȬŜşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱ

ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱ¢ȱ community structure in the Bering Sea. Marine Ecology Progress Series řśŘǰȱşȬŗŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻMicropogonias undulatus). Fisheries Oceanography ŗŜǰȱřŗȬŚśǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǭȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŗşşŝǯȱ£ǰȱ ǰȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ of Pomatomus saltatrix (Pisces: Pomatomidae). Ecology ŝŞǰȱŘŚŗśȬŘŚřŗǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ¡ǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱĴǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱEcological Applications ŘŖǰȱŚśŘȬŚŜŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱŗşŝŝȱȱ ŗşŞşǯȱProgress in Oceanography ŚŝǰȱŗŖřȬŗŚśǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯ ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭ- sional stress gradient. Ecology ŞŚǰȱŗŚŝŝȬŗŚŞŞǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱȬȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱMarine Ecology Progress Series řŝŗǰȱřŝȬŚŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǯȱScience řřŚ, ŗŗŘŚȬŗŗŘŝǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯ ǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ sudden distributional shifts during periods of gradual climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA ŗŖŜǰȱŗŗŗŝŘȬŗŗŗŝŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ- £ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ marine systems. ¢ȱĴȱşǰȱŘŘŞȬŘŚŗǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŗŞǱȱ ŘřȬŚŖǯ References 211

ȱǯǯǰȱǯȱǼǯȱȱȱȱȬȱřŖŜǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱȬǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱȱǯȱ ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȂȱ Ȭȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ improvement. ¢ȱȱǻȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǼ, ǻŘŖŖŝȬŜǼǰȱŗȬŗŗǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱȬǰȱ ǯǰȱ£ǰȱǯȱǭȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȂȱ Ȭȱȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱěȱȱȱȱȱ improvement. ¢ȱȱǻȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǼ, ǻŘŖŖŝȬŜǼǰȱŗȬŗŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŗşŞśǯȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ£ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ structure. Ecology 66ǰȱŗŗŜŖȬŗŗŜşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱǯȱScience ŘŞś, 1505-1510. ǰȱǯǰȱ£ǰȱǯǰȱĴǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱ - ȱǱȱ ȱȱȱȱĴȱȱǵȱEcology şŖ, 912-920. ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱĴǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ -

house gas (CO2ǰȱ Śǰȱ 2ŖǼȱĚ¡ȱȱȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱAgriculture, Ecosystems and Environment ŗśŖǰȱŗȬŗŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ¢¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ¢ ŗŜ, 990-995. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱȱ impacts of climate change on a marine turtle population. ȱȱ¢ȱŗř, 923-932. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ turtles. Endangered Species Research ŝǰȱŗřŝȬŗśŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯǰȱȱěǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱ¢ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯǰȱȱěǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ę¢Ǳȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱTrends in Ecology and Evolution ŘŖǰȱřřŝȬřŚŚǯ Ȭ èǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱĴǰȱ ǯ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ¢ȱĴ Ş, 270-273. ĵǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯȱȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱ ȱȱSalmonella in Fish and Seafood. Journal of Food Protection ŜřǻśǼǱśŝşȬśşŘǯ £ȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯ ǰȱǱȱȱ £ȱǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ ǱȱȱęȱǯȱHarmful Algae Ş, 3-13. ǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǰȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ Journal of Climate ŗş, śŜŞŜȬśŜşş. ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ ȱȱŘŘȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱȱŗŚŘǱŗŚȬřŘǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ climate change for invasive species. ȱ¢ ŘŘǰȱśřŚȬśŚřǯ 212 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢¡ȱȱ- nental margins. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers śŗǰȱŗŗśşȬŗŗŜŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱěǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴȱřŝǰȱŗŞŝŖŗǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ¢¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ climate change? ȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ¢ ŘŗŘǰȱŝśřȬŝŜŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱĴǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯ ǯǰȱȂǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ£ǱȱȱȱȱǯȱEcological Monographs ŝŜǰȱŚŜŗȬŚŝşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ£ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ Ǳȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics řŝǰȱřŝřȬŚŖŚǯ ǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ complex environment. Fisheries Research ŗŗŚǰȱŘȬŗŞǯ ǰȱǯ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ border: an analysis of the geographic boundary of an intertidal species. Marine Ecology Prog- ress Series řŝş, 135-150. ǰȱǯǰȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŖǯȱContaminants in Alaska: Is America’s Arctic at Risk?ȱǯǯȱȱȱȱ Interior, Department of Environmental Conservation. ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱ empirical model of sardine-climate regime shifts. Marine Policy řŗǰȱŝŗȬŞŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǯȱ ȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱęȱȱę¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȂȱǱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǯȱ ǰȱ Ǳȱ ȱǲȱǯȱŗŘŜȬŗśŖǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱĵǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ ȱęǱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴ řśǰȱŗşŜŖŗǯ Ĵǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ Ȭǰȱǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱ Ȭǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱěǰȱǯǰȱ£ǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȦ ȱ ȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱěȱǯȱǰȱ Ǳȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱǯ Ĵǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ Ȭǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱ Ȭǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱěǰȱ ǯȱ£ȱȱǯȱȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ Ȧȱ ȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱěȱǯȱĴǰȱ Washington. ǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱ ȱǻOrcinus orca) over the past century. Ecological Applications ŗşǰȱŗřŜśȬŗřŝś ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ¡¢ȱȱęȱ- ability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA ŗŖŖǰȱŜśŜŚȬŜśŜŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ £ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ¡Ȭǯȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱǯǯȱȱȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȬȬȱ ȬȬŚŜşǰȱǯǯȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ References 213

ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ- ȱ ȱȬȬȬȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŝȬȬŘŖŖŞǯȱMorbidity and Mortality Weekly Report ŜŖ, 1-32. ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱǰȱȱǰȱȱȱǯȱEstu- aries ŘśǰȱŞŗşȬŞřŝǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ- ǰȱǯȱ¥ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ ŗś, 1-7. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ¢- ological evolution.ȱ ȱǱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǯȱ Ȭ ǰȱǯǰȱȱ ǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ’s marine ecosystems. Science řŘŞǱȱŗśŘřȬŗśŘŞǯ Ȭ ǰȱǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ęǰȱǯǰȱ £ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ Ȭǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱ ĵǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęǯȱScience řŗŞǰȱŗŝřŝȬŗŝŚŘǯ Ȭ ǰȱǯǰȱ£ǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱǯȱScience řřŚǰȱŗŚşŚȬŗŚşśǯ ěǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱȬǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱCatastrophe and Culture: The Anthropology of Disaster. Santa Fe, NM: School of American Research Advanced Seminar Series. ǰȱǯǯǰȱĵǰȱǯǯǰȱ£ǰȱǯǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ¢¡ȱ¢ȱǱȱȱ ęȱȱȱȱǯȱDeep-Sea Research Part I-Oceanographic Research Papers śŞ, ŗŘŗŘȬŗŘŘŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȬěǯȱMarine Ecology Progress Series řřŘǰȱŘŚŚȬŘśşǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ a rapidly changing environment. Annual Review of Physiology ŝŘǰȱŗŝŘȬŗŚśǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǯȱȱěȱȱȱęȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱ- ism to ecosystem perspective. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics ŚŗǰȱŗŘŝȬŗŚŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱIn pressǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱCurrent Opinion in Environment Sustainability. ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱĴǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱEcological Applications ŝ, 1299-1310. ǰȱǯǯǰȱȱȱǰȱǯǰȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱĴȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱę¢ǯȱǰȱǯǯǱȱǯǯȱȱȱ Commerce. ǰȱǯǯǰȱĵǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱȱȅȱȱȱȱȱ variability of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation. Journal of Climate ŗŚǰȱŜśŜȬŜŝśǯ ǰȱǯȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱĴǯȱŗşşŘǯȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢¢ȱȱǯȱNorth American Journal of Fisheries ManagementȱŗŘǻŗǼǱŘŞȬřřǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱěȱȱęȱȱ ęǱȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱ strategies. ICES Journal of Marine Science ŜŞǰȱşŞřȬŗřŝřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱȂǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ȱȱȱęȱȱęȱ responses to future climate change. ICES Journal of Marine Science 66ǰȱŗśŞŚȬŗśşŚǯ 214 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ãǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ Ĵǰȱ ǯǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęǯȱScience řřśǰȱŗŖśŞȬŗŖŜřǯ ěǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ of changes in ocean and climate conditions in the northern California current ecosystem. Limnology and Oceanography śŗǰȱŘŖŚŘȬŘŖśŗǯ ǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ ȱȱVibrioȱęǱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǯȱInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases ŗśǰȱŗśŝȬŗŜŜǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱęȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȬŗŘȬǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱę¢ǯȱęȱ ȱǯȱǯȱǯǰȱǯȱǯȱǯȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǰȱ ȱşŜŞŘŘȬŘřşŜǯȱęȱ ȱǯȱǯȱǯȱǯȱǯȱ ȬŗŗȬŖŗǰȱśŖȱǯȱƸȱǯ ¢ȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ. ȱ ȱǯȱȱřǰȱŘŖŖŞȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱ Ĵǰȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱęȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱęǯȱCanadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 6ǰȱşŚŝȬşŜŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱVibrio ęȱȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱŗŖǻŞǼǯ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ¢ȦȦŚȬŚȦęȬȦȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯĢ¢¡ǯȦ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦ ȦȦȦȏȱȏȱ ȦǵśŘŚȦȬȬȬȬȬȬȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯ ǯȦ ȬȬ£ȦȬȦȦȦŘŖŖşȦ ȬȬȬ Conservation.aspx ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ sheet on the meridional overturning circulation and global climate in the future. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography śŞǰȱŗşŗŚȬŗşŘŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ challenge of sustaining coral reef resilience. Trends in Ecology and Evolution ŘśǰȱřřȬŜŚŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ Ȭ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱĴǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱǰȱ¢ǰȱ and the resilience of coral reefs to climate change. ȱ¢ȱŗŝǰȱřŜŖȬřŜśǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ĴǰȱǯȱȱęǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱFoodborne Disease HandbookǯȱȱǯȱȱŚǱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ ȱǱȱȱǰȱ ǯ ǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯ ǯȱŗşşşǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǯȱ Nature ŚŖŘǰȱŚŖŝȬŚŗŖǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱ¡ȱȱ- lations and chaos in the oceanic deep chlorophyll maximum. Nature Śřş, 322-325. ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱȱ¢ǯȱTransactions of the American Fisheries Society ŗřř, ŗřŖŚȬŗřŘŞǯ References 215

ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ĵǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ- ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱ ICES Journal of Marine Science ŜŞǰȱŗŘřŖȬŗŘŚřǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŞȱȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ- ǯȦȦŘŖŖŞȦŘŖŖŞȏȏȏŗǯŚǯǯ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Oscillation. Journal of Marine Systems ŝşǰȱŘřŗȬŘŚŚǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¢ǱȱȱȱȱǯȱNature ŚŝŜǰȱŚŗȬŚŘǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯȬǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱ

Mulholland, M.R. 2007. CO2 control of Trichodesmium N2ȱę¡ǰȱ¢ǰȱ ȱ rates, and elemental ratios: implications for past, present, and future ocean biogeochemistry. Limnology and Oceanography śŘǰȱŗŘşřȬŗřŖŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ

CO2-enriched ocean. Oceanography ŘŘǰŗŘŞȬŗŚśǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǻŗşŞŝȬşŞǼǱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱDeep Sea Research II śŖǰȱŘśřŝȬŘśŜśǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ by the Canadian Globe and Mailȱ ¢ȱŘŝǰȱŘŖŗŗȱȱȱȱĴǱȦȦǯ- ǯȦȦ Ȧ¢Ȧ ȦŘŖŗŗŖŗŘŝȦ ŖŗŘŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Caribbean reef. Marine Ecology Progress Series řŗş, 117-127. Iles, A. C., T. C. Gouhier, et al. (2012). “Climate-driven trends and ecological implications of event- ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȄȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŗŞǻŘǼǱȱŝŞřȬŝşŜǯ ȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱȱȱȂȱ ȱȱȱ ǯȱȱ ǰȱǱȱ ȱȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱȬ ȱǱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱśŚǱȱŜŖŞȬŜŗŚǯ ǰȱǯȱǭȱ Ȭ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱěȱȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŘŞǱȱ¢ȱȱȱ Management in the United States: Methodology for Research Issue. ŘŞǰȱŜşȬŞŜǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ£Ǳȱȱ¢ȱ- ȱȱȱȱęǵȱ ¢ȱȱĴȱřŞ, L12502. ȱȱǰȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦǅȦȦȦƖŘŖȦȱ ŘŖŖŜȦȬȬȬęȬȬȦŗŗŝŜŘȏǯ¡ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007a. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱȱǯȱǻǼǯȱǰȱǯ Ǳȱ ȱ¢ȱǯ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007b. Climate Change 2007: The Physical ȱǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱȱ ǯǯȱȱǻǯǼȱȱ¢ȱǰȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǯ 216 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) 33rd Session Abu Dhabi, 10-13 May 2011. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ ȦřřȦŖŝȏřřȏęȏǯ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ǼǯȱǻŘŖŗŗǼǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱęȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ¢ǰȱ ǰȱ ǰȱŗŝȬŗşȱ ¢ȱŘŖŗŗǯȱŗŝŚȱǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱĴȱǵȱ ¢ȱȱĴȱřŜ, ŗŞŜŖşǯ ǰȱǰȱ£ęǰȱǯ ǯǯǰȱǭȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǰȱ ǯȱMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change ŗŚ, 339-55.

ǰȱǰȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 abate- ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŘşǻŗǼȱŗȬŗŜǯ ǰȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ¡ǰȱ ǲȱŘŖŖşȱřŚǻśǼǱŘŘŞȬŘřŗǯ ǰȱǯȱȱ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱŘŖŖŜȱȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱ ȬȬȬŗŚǯ ȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱ ǰȱȱǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȾȱȂ Ǳȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱ- ȱǯȱȱȱŗŘǻŘȬřǼǱŗŘşȬřŜǲ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯ ǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱ£ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȾȱȂ Ǳȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱȱ adaptation options. Climate Research ŗŘǰȱŗŘşȬřŜǲ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ȱǰȱǯǰȱ £ǰȱǯȱǭȱ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱȱĴȱ and limits on the adaptive response to temperature of European Mytilus spp. and Macoma balthica populations. Oecologia ŗśŚǰȱŘřȬřŚǯ ǰȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱęȱ ǰȱȱǲȱŘŖŖŝȱŘŞǻŗǼǱśŝȬŜŞǯ ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱ ȱ£ȱǯȱǯǯȱǯȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȃ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŘŗŖŖǵȄȱ ¢ǯȱǯȱĴǯȱřŝ(7): L07703. ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ started over 200 years ago? ¢ǯȱȱĴȱřśǰȱŞȬŗŗ ǰȱǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱěȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ trophic and multitrophic communities. The American Naturalist ŗŝŚǰȱŜśŗȬŜśşǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ Bay Estuary (Tampa Bay), Florida. In: Understanding the role of macroalgae in shallow estuaries. ǰȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǰȱŘŜȬŘŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ ȱȱ vulnerability and future options. Reviews in Fisheries Science ŗŞǰȱŗŖŜȬŗŘŚǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ Ĵȱ ǯǯȱǭȱ£ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature ŚśŗǻŝŗŞŗǼǰȱşşŖȬşşřǯ ǰȱǯȱ ǯǰȱȱ ǯȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱęǱȱDisease and Pathogenisis. Infection and Immunity 77(5):1723-1733. References 217

ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ£ ǰȱǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱ Mytilus edulisȱǻǯǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ŘŗŝǰȱŝřȬŞśǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęǯȱThe Journal of the Acoustical Society of America ŗŘŞǰȱŗŚŚȬŗŚşǯ ȼǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȂȱ¢¡Ǳȱȱ¡ȱ 50 years? Estuaries and Coasts řŖǰȱŝşŗȬŞŖŗǯ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱ Coastal Coho Salmon (Oncorhynchus Kisutch) Fishery in Washington State. Natural Resource ModelingȱŘŖǻŘǼǱřŘŗȬřŚşǯ £ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȬǯǰȱĵǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŜǯśǚǯȱJournal of Climate ŘřǰȱśŜŝŞȬśŜşŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱǻǯǼȱŘŖŖşǯȱGlobal Climate Change Impacts in the United States. ȱǰȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱěǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱȬȱěȱȱ- ȱȱ¡¢ȱę¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȬȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱ ŚŖǰȱŚŘŝȬŚŞşǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱǯȱ ǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱĴȱȱAlle alle across the Greenland Sea: implications of present and future Arctic ȱǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱŚŗśǱȱŘŞŘȬŘşřǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱĴǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ĴǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱPLoS ONE 6ǰȱŗşŜśřǯ ĵǰȱǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ£ǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱȱǯǯȱĝǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱŗşşşȬŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ ȱȱŗŝǱȱŘŘŗȬŘŘŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱǻOdobenus rosmarus) - response to the climate changes. In: ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱ Mammals of the Holarctic V ConferenceǰȱǰȱǰȱŘŚŞȬŘśŗǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱǰȱŗşşŞȬŘŖŖŖǯȱȱȱ¢ȱśŝǱȱřŚŗȬřŜŗǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯȱǯǰȱŗşşşǱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Gulf Stream region. Journal of Geophysical Research. Řş, 313-327. Kelly, M.W., Sanford, E. & Grosberg, R.K. 2012. Limited potential for adaptation to climate change in a broadly distributed marine crustacean. ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱŘŝş, řŚşȬřśŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǭȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ ȱ¡ȱ ǯȱScience řřŘ, ŗŖřŜȬřŝǯ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱScience ŘşŝǰȱŗŚşŖȬŗŚşŘǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ¢Ȭęȱ¢ǯȱClimate Change ŗŖŖǰȱŝśŝȬŝŜŞǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱ leptospirosis in seals (Phoca vitulina) in captivity. Veterinary Quarterly řŞ, 33-39. ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱDecision Support for Coral Reef Fisheries Management: Community Input as a Means of Informing Policy in American Samoaǯȱȱ ȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 218 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

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ǰȱǯȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱScience of the Total Envi- ronment řŚŘǰȱśȬŞŜǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱĴǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǭȱĴǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱěȱȱ¢ȱ¢¡ȱ on inactivation and elimination of Vibrio campbellii in the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica. Applied and Environmental Microbiology ŝŚǰȱŜŖŝŝȬŜŖŞŚǯ ǰȱǯȱǯǰȱǯȱǯȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱęǱȱ adapting to predicted global change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: ȱǰȱřŜśǻŗśśŞǼǰȱǯřŝśřȱȬřŝŜřǯ Mahon, R. 2002. ȱȱęȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ CARICOM region: issue paper-draft. Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change (MACC) of the Ca- ribbean Center for Climate Change (CCCC)ǰȱǰȱǯǯǱȱ£ȱȱȱǰȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱŗşŝřǯȱ Ǳȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ǯȱScience ŗŞŘǰȱşŝśȬşŞŗǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŝǯȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ Society ŝŞǰȱŗŖŜşȬŗŖŝşǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱ ǰȱ ǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯǯȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱ ǱȱThe Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economyǰȱǯȱȱǭȱ ǯǯȱȱǻǯǼǯȱ ȱǰȱǯǯǱȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱŘřŝȬŘŜŚǯ ǰȱǯǯȱȱ ǯȱĴǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȂȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱȱ Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville, Australia. ǰȱǯǰȱǭȱ Ĵǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ and elevated temperature. ȱȱ¢ ŗśǰȱŘŖŞşȬŘŗŖŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱ Ǳȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱ ĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȦȏ¢ȏęǯ Ç£ǰȱǯǯǰȱ¤ǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱLessonia nigrescensȱǻ¢ǼȱŘŖȱ¢ȱȱȱÛȱŗşŞŘȦŞřǯȱJournal of Phycology řşǰȱśŖŚȬśŖŞǯ £Ȭ£ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱVibrio parahaemolyticus and ȱęȱillnesses. Food Research Interna- tional ŚřǰȱŗŝŞŖȬŗŝşŖǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱǯǰȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ¢ǰȱ thinner Arctic ice cover: Increased potential for rapid, extensive sea-ice loss. Geophysical ȱĴ, řŚǰȱŘŚśŖŗǯ Ĵȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱĴȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱęǯȱŗŞşśǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ. ǱȱȱȱĴȱȱǯǰȱȱǯȱȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦ details/historyofemblemo00mass. ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱǰȱPterygophora californica and Eisenia arborea, at multiple life-stages. ȱ¢ ŗśŗǰȱŗşŚŗȬŗşŚşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ- tion of epidemic cholera due to Vibrio cholerae O1 in children younger than 10 years using climate data in Bangladesh. Epidemiology and InfectionȱŗřŜǱŝřȬŝşǯ 224 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱęǱȱȬȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ę¢ȱȱȱ ¢ǯȱHuman OrganizationȱśşǰȱřŝȬŚŝǯ ¢ǰȱ ǯȱ ǯǰȱȱǯȱ£ǰȱȱǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ǯȱǰȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱ Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Intergovernmental Panel on ȱǯȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǲȱǰȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱVulnerability and Human Rightǯȱ¢ȱǰȱǱȱȱȱǯ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱĝǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȬȱȱ ¢ȱęǱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ ęȱȱȱĴǱȦȦǯǯȦǅęȦȬęǯǯ ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱ a coupled system: the Atlantic surfclam case. ICES Journal of Marine Science ŜŞǰŗřśŚǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ocean-color satellites Deep-Sea Research II śŗǰȱŘŞŗȬřŖŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȬȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȬȱȱȱęȱȱǻSardinops sagaxǼǯȱǯȱ ǯȱǯȱǯȱǯȱ ŜŝǱȱŗŝŞŘȬŗŝşŖǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯȱ ǰȱȱ ǯȱ£ȬǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ǳȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŗşǱȱŚŖŖȬŚŗŝǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȂȱȱȱȱȱ ȱěȱȱȱǯȱȱ Ǳȱȱ ȱǰȱ¢ȱŚȬśǰȱǰȱ ǯ McGeehin, M., & Mirabelli M. 2001. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. Environmental Health Perspectives ŗŖş, ŗşŗȬŗşŞǯ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ- Ǳȱ ȱȱȱȱęǯȱProgress in Oceanography ŞŜǰȱŗŞŝȬŗşŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱ Vibrioȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ǯȱNew England Journal of Medicine řśřǰŗŚŜřȬŗŚŝŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱãǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȱȱ

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment şǰȱśśŘȬśŜŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ address the impacts of climate change. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment ŝǰȱřŜŘȬřŝŖǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱ ȱ ǯȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱĴǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱȬǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǰȱȱǯȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱ ȱ Ǳȱȱȱǯȱ Ǳȱ ȱ ȱ£ǯ McNeeley, S. 2009. ȱȱȱǱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯ PhD ǰȱ¢ȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǭȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱęǱȱȱȱȱȱŚśŖȬȱ-

spheric CO2. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA ŗŖśǰȱŗŞŞŜŖȬŗŞŞŜŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȃ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȬȱȱȱ ȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱǯȄȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱŝȱǻŗǼǱȱśŝȬŜşǯ References 225

ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱǰȱȱ ǯȱǰȱŘŖŖŜǱȱȱȱȱȱÛȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱ¢ǰȱŘŜǰȱśŚşǿśŜŜǰȱ ǱŗŖǯŗŖŖŝȦŖŖřŞŘȬŖŖśȬŖŖşŞȬŖǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ Ĵǰȱǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǯǰȱĴǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯȬǯȱ ŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ- tion of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeȱǯȱȱȱǯȱǻǼǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǯǱȱȱ ¢ȱǰȱśŞşȬŜŜŘǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǭȱ ǰȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŜǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱŘŗȱ¢ǯȱ ¢ȱȱĴǰȱřřǰȱŚȱǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ȱǰȱǯȱȱ ȱȱŗŖǱȱŚŖŜȬŚŗŘǯȱ ǰȱǯȱȱǯȱ ǯȱŗşşşǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǯȱȱȱ ǯǯȱȱǯȱThe Impact of Climate Change on the United States EconomyǰȱǯȱŘŜŝȬŘŞŞǯȱ ȱǱȱȱ¢ȱǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ and community dominant to climate change. ¢ȱĴ ŗŗǰȱŗśŗȬŗŜŘǯ ǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ£ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱĚȱȱ trophic interactions in generating Emiliania huxleyi blooms 1997-2000. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers śŗǰȱŗŞŖřȬŗŞŘŜǯ Merino, G., M. Barange, and C. Mullon. 2010. Climate variability and change scenarios for a ȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱęǰȱęȱȱęȱȱȱ£ȱ ǯȱJournal of Marine SystemsȱŞŗǱŗşŜȬŘŖśǯ

¢ęǰȱǯȱ ǯǱȱȱȱȱȱ2ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ŗşǰȱŚŖŖşȬŚŖŘŝǰȱŘŖŖŜǯȱŘŗŝş £ǰȱǯǰȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ changing climate. ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ ŚŖŖǰȱşŖȬşŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱĴǰȱǯǯȱǭȱĴǰȱ ǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱ¢¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱVibrio parahaemolyticus. ȱȱęȱȱŗş, 301-311. ǰȱ ǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǰȱȬ Ĵǰȱ ǯǰȱĵǰȱ ǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǰȱ£ǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱęǱȱȱȱȱȱȱǵȱQuaternary Science Reviews Řş, 1779-1790. ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǯǰȱĴǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŖśȱȱŜŖȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱ ǯȱCoral Reefs ŘŞ, 925-937. ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŗşşŘǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěǯȱJournal of Geophysical Research şŝǰȱŘŝśŝȬŘŝŜŚǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱǱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱęȱǯȱMarine Resource Economics ŗşǰȱřŜŝȬřşřǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ęǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢Ȭǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱ ŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ£Ȭȱ£ȱȱȱ ǱȱȬ¢ȱȱ ȱȱĴȱǻEnhydra lutris nereis) due to Sarcocystis neurona infection. Veterinary Para- sitology ŗŝŘǰȱŗŞřȬŗşŚǯ 226 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

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ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱęȱȱNeodenticula seminae in the ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱŞŖŖǰŖŖŖȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱ¢ ŗř, 1910-1921. ǰȱǯǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ §ǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱ extremes enhanced by genotypic diversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ȱŗŖŘǱȱŘŞŘŜȬŘŞřŗǯȱ ǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŗşśŝǯȱȱ¡ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ

ȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 during past decades. Tellus şǰȱŗŞȬŘŝǯ ¢Ȭǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱĴǰȱǯǯȱ ȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȬȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ mixed estuary. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science ŜŖǰȱřşśȬŚŖŝǯ ǰȱǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ

ęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2. Nature ŚŖŝ, řŜŚȬřŜŝ ǰȱǯǰȱ£ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ¢ãǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱãǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱ

consumption in a high CO2 ocean. Nature ŚśŖǰȱśŚśȬśŚŞǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱęȱ¡ȱ¡ȱȱȱ

CO2ȬȱȱęǰȱGeology řŝǻŗŘǼǰȱŗŗřŗȬŗŗřŚǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ Ǳȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȦȱǻȬȱǼȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱęǯȱ ŝǰȱŘŝşśȬŞŚş Rignot, E., I. Velicogna, et al. (2011). “Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȄȱ ¢ǯȱǯȱĴǯȱřŞ(5): L05503. ǰȱǯǰȱ ĵǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȦȱȱȱȱǱȱŘǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȬȱȱȬȱȱǰȱJournal of Geophysical Research ŗŗŖǰȱŗŘŗŖŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱęǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱȱ ȱȱŚŗŚ Robinson, S. and the Gloucester Community Panel. 2003. A study of Gloucester’s commercial ęȱǯȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱŗŝǰȱŘŖŗŘǰȱȱĴǱȦȦ ǯǯȦȦȏȦǯ ǰȱǯȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱ ¢ȱŗŝǰȱ ŘŖŗŘǰȱȱĴǱȦȦǯǯȦȦȏȦǯ àǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱǵȱProceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesȱȱşş, ŗŘşŖŗȬŗŘşŖŜǯ £Ȭ£ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱȬǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱȱȬ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ¢ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱǯȱ ǯȱǯǯȱǯȱśşǻŗŘǼǱŗşŞŖȬŗşŞŞǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱŗşşśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯȱȱŘŜŝǰȱŗřŘŚȬŗřŘŜǯ ěǰȱǯǯȱŗşşŘǯȱEvolution of life histories: theory and analysis.ȱ ȱǰȱǰȱǱȱȱȱ ǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŘǯȱȱęȱȱ ȱ

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ŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ2. Science řŖśǰȱřŜŝȬřŝŗǯ ǰȱǯǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȃȱȄȱǱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ biogeographical rule? ¢ȱĴ śǰȱŗřŝȬŗŚŝǯ 238 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

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ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱ ȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱMytilus species. Journal of Thermal ¢ řśǰȱŗŜŗȬŗŜŜǯȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǯȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱĴǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǯȱȱŚŖřǱȱŞŖȬŞŚǯ Ĵǰȱǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǭȱ ĵǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ climatic resources for tourism in North America. Climate Research Řŝ, 105-117. ǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǰȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱęǯȱNature 464ǰȱŗřřŚȬŗřřŝǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǰȱǯ£ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱȱǯǰȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱęȱ Islander Seafood Consumption – a community based study in King County Washington. Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental EpidemiologyȱŗřǰȱŘśŜȬŘŜŜǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡¢Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱ and trait information. Aquatic Toxicology ŗŖś, 50-55. ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱȱǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱ ȱ ǯȱȱȱŗŞǱȱŗŗŚşȬŗŗŜśǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯǯȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱȱ ǯ ǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȁȂȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ ¬¬ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱŘŞǱȱŜřśȬŜśŖǯ £ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǭȱ ǰȱǯȱŗşşş. Excess hospital admissions during the July 1995 heat wave in Chicago. American Journal of Preventive Medicine ŗŜǰȱŘŜşȬŘŝŝǯ £ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŗǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱ ȱęȱȱǯȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ £ǰȱǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱǯǰȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱGlobal and Planetary Change ŝŝǰȱŞśȬşŜǯ £ǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱęȱǯȱClimatic Change ŝŜǰȱŘŚŗȬŘŜŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǰȱȱǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ- ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱřśǰȱśşȬŜŜǯ ȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱ present opportunities for conservation. ȱ¢ 6, e171. ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ¡ȱȱȬę¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęȱȱ ȱȱȱ ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱǰȱǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ policies, macroeconomic (county and regional) conditions and coastal development on the ȱ¢ȱȱęȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱŖśŚřřŗŖŝşǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱȱǯǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ the Bering Sea macroecosystem. N. Pac. Anadr. Fish Comm. Bull. 5: 332-331. ǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱScience. 296, 730-733 (2002). ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ĵǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯȱǭȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ¡ǰȱęǰȱȱǱȱȱȱȱǰȱǰȱȱ Beaufort Seas in a time of climate change. Oceanography ŘŚǰȱŘśŖȬŘŜśǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ£ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱ£ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ

ȱȱ2 doubles. ¢ȱȱĴȱřŜǰȱŖśŜŖŜǯ ǰȱǯȱǭȱĴǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ- ments. ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ Şş, 203-210. ǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŝȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱęȱǯȱOryx ŚŗǰȱŗşȬŘŜǯ 240 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ǰȱǯŗşşŚǯȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯǯȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱ Medical Anthropology. Social Science and Medicine řşǻŝǼǱȱşřŗȬşŚŞǯ ǰȱ ǯȱǭȱęǰȱǯȱŗşŝśǯȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱŘśoC. Limnology and Oceanography ŘŖǰȱŗŖřȬŗŖŞǯ Slenning, B.D. 2010. Global climate change and implications for disease emergence. Veterinary Pathology Online ŚŝǰȱŘŞȬřřǯ ȱȱȱǻǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ. ǰȱǯȱǯȱȱǯȱǯȱ¢ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȬǱȱ¢ȱȱ Five Marine Commercial Fisheries. Human OrganizationȱŜşǻŘǼǱȱŗśŞȬŗŜŞǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ invasive impacts. ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ŘŝşǰȱŗŖŗŝȬŗŖŘŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱǱȱȬǰȱȬ induced coral mortality. ¢ȱĴ şǰȱŞřśȬŞŚśǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ- sity. Ecology ŞŝǰȱŗŗśřȬŗŗŜŗǯ ¢ǰȱǯȱǯǰȱǯȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖřǼǯȱȃȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǯȄȱ ¢ǯȱǯȱĴǯȱřŖǻŗśǼǱȱŗŞŘřǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ models. Journal of Climate ŗşǰȱřřśŚȬřřŜŖǯ ǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- ȱȱȱǱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱClimate Research řŝ, ŗŞŗȬŘŖŗǯ ȱǯǰȱȱǯǰȱȱǯǰȱȱǯǰȱȱǯǰȱ¢ȱ ǯǯǰȱȱǯǰȱȱ ǯǯȱ2007, ǻǯǼǰȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǱȱȱ¢ȱȱǱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Cambridge, UK Cambridge University Press 996 p. ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ¢¢Ǳȱȱȃ¢ȱȄȱȱȱȱȱ global change. American Journal of Physiology – Regulatory, Integrative, and Comparative Physi- ology řŖŗǰȱŗȬŗŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ indicator of potential population responses to climate change. Journal of Experimental Marine ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŚŖŖ, 209-217. ǰȱǯ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ- tions: comparative spread rates and community impacts. ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱŗş, řŖřȬřŗŜǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ species in a marine fouling community. Ecology şŗǰȱŘŗşŞȬŘŘŖŚǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ Ȭǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ£ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯ ǯŘŖŖśǯȱ Ȭȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱAdvances ȱȱ¢ Śŝ, 1-105. ǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱ ȱ¢Ǳȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱMarine Ecology Progress Series řśŘǰȱŘŞşȬŘşŝǯ References 241

ǯȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱ ȬǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱ Ȭǰȱǰȱȱ implications for marine spatial planning, Marine Policy řŘǰȱŝŝşȬŝŞŜǯ £ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱě¢ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ communities and ecosystems. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics řŞǰȱŝřşȬŝŜŜǯ £ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱ¢ǰȱȱǰȱ ȱȱ¢ȱǱȱȱĴȱȱǯȱEcology Şř, 2575-2590. £ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA şşǰȱŗśŚşŝȬŗśśŖŖǯ ěǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱ2007ǯȱ ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱǰȱ ȱȱ ȱȱŘŖŖřȬŖŚǯȱArctic ŜŖǰȱŗŜŝȬŗŝŘǯȱ ȱȱ ȂȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ Visitor Statistics. Stearns, S.C. 1992. The evolution of life historiesǯȱ¡ǰȱǯ ǯǱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱǯȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱãǰȱǯȱǯǰȱĴǰȱ ǯȬ ǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱ- ęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ȭȱǰȱ ȱŜǰȱśŗśȬśřřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱãǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱŘŗst century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis. ŝ, 979-1005. ǰȱǯǰȱ ǯȱȱȱǯȱǯȱ¢ǯŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ November. Washington, DC. ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǯǯǱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯȱMarine Policy řřǰȱŚşȬśŝǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǰȱĴǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȬǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŘǯȱȱ ěȱȱȱĚǯȱScience ŘşŝǰȱŗŘşŘȬŗŘşŜǯ ǰȱ ǯȱǯǰȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ of operation, Journal of Geophysical ResearchǰȱŗŗřǰȱŖŖŗŞǯ ǰȱ ǯȱǯǰȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱǱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱ ǯȱ ¢ǯȱǯǰȱŗŗřǰȱŖŖŗŞǰȱǱŗŖǯŗŖŘşȦŘŖŖŞ ŖŖşşŞŘǯ ǰȱǯȱŗşşŖǯȱȬȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻParalithodes camts- chaticaǼǰȱȱȱěȱȱ£ȬȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱŚŝǰȱŗřŖŝȬŗřŗŝǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱ¢ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱȱȱȂȱǱȱ Implications for cruise tourism. Arctic ŜŖǰȱřŝŖȬřŞŖǯ ǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱǰȱŗşşŗȬŘŖŖŖǯȱȱ¢ȱŘŞǱȱřŞŗȬřŞŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱěȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic śşǰȱŘŜŗȬŘŝśǯȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱ ££ǰȱ ǯȱŗşşşǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱArctic śŘǰȱŘşŚȬřŖŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯ ǯȱǰȱȱ ǯȱ ££ǯȱŗşşşǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱśŘǱȱŘşŚȬřŖŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ¡ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ Ĝǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ¢£ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱěǰȱ 242 OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

ǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ Ȭȱȱȱ assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources. Progress in Oceanography, ŞŞ, 1-27. ȱȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱ ǰȱ ĵǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǯȱǰȱ ǯȱ¢ǰȱȱ ǯǯȱ£ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ- ȱȱŘŖŖřȬŘŖŖŚǰȱȱ ȱȱÛȱȱȱǰȱ ȱǰȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱŗřŜǱȱŗŚŖŝȬŗŚŗśǯȱ ěǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ¡ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱĴĴǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ- tion to past and future climate changes. Journal of Climate ŗşǰȱŗřŜśȬŗřŞŝǯ Stram, D.L., and Evans, D.C.K. 2009. Fishery management responses to climate change in the ȱęǯȱICES Journal of Marine Science 66ǰȱŗŜřřȬŗŜřşǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ£ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱ ȱ¡ȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǯȱEos Transactions of the American Geophysical Union Şş, 13.. ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ£ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰ ǰȱǯǰȱǭȱĴǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱ Ȃȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱClimatic Change doi: 10.1007/ ŗŖśŞŚȬŖŗŗȬŖŗŖŗȬŗǯ ǰȱǯȱȱǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǻŗşŝŖǼǯȱAquatic chemistryǰȱ ȱǰȱǱȱ¢ǯǯ ǰȱǯȱŗşŝŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱJournal of Geophysical Research ŝş, ŞŘśȬŞřŖǯ ǰȱǯȬ ǯǰȱǰȱǯȬǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯȬǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ- mental variation on the distribution of blue marlin, Makaira nigricansǰȱȱȱęȱǯȱ ICES Journal of Marine Science ŜŞǰȱŗŖŝŘȬŗŖŞŖǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱęǯȱNature Climate Change ŗǰȱŚŚşȬŚśŜǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȬǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱěȱȱȱ

pCO2 and phosphate availability on domoic acid production and physiology of the marine harmful bloom diatom Ȭĵȱǯȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱśŜǰȱŞŘşȬŞŚŖǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ- Ǳȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱNew York University Environmental Law Journal ŗŞ, 55-155. ǰȱǯȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯȱ ǰȱŘŖŖşǱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢Ǳȱ ¢Ȭ ¢ȱŘŖŖşǯȱ Tech. Rep. NOS CO-OPS 051, NOAA, 30 pp. Sydeman, W., & Thompson, S.A. 2010. The California Current integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA) Module II: Trends and variability in climate-ecosystem state. Final Report to NOAA/ NMFS/Environmental Research Division ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱSeabirds and climate in the California Current – a synthesis of change. CalCOFI Report Vol. 50. ǰȱǯ ǯ ǯȱȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱǱȱ ȱȱ- ȱȱȱȱȱęǯȱǰȱřŞǻŜǼǱŘşŚȬřŖŘǯ ǰȱǯ ǯ ǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ and crustaceans: trends and prospectsǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱśŜŚǯȱ References 243

ǰȱǯǰȱ£ǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱ ȱȱ¢Ǳȱ ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱĚȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǵȱCanadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 64ǰȱŝŜŞȬŝŝŜǯ ǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱ PLoS One 6ǰȱŘŜşŚŗǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯȱȱȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱ ȱȱȱVibrioȱęȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱ ȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱ ȱ £ȱȱǯȱEcohealth Epub ahead of print.

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ǰȱǯǰȱǭȱǰȱ ǯ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ biodiversity: What can animal physiology tell us? ȱȱ¡ȱȱ¢ȱȱ Ecology řŜŜǰȱŗŞŝȬŗşŝǯ ěǰȱǯȱȱǯȱȱǻŘŖŖşǼǯȱȃ ȱȱȱśŖȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱǯȄȱ ȱ- ence Series: Earth and Environmental Science 6ǻřǼǱȱŖřŘŖŖŚǯ ¡ǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱ ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ Pathogen. Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine ŗŖǰȱŘŜřȬŘŝŘǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǭȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŝǯȱȱǰȱȬȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment śǰȱŚŝśȬŚŞŘǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǭȱĴǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱŗşŜŖȱȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ ȱ Current Population ReportsǰǰȱǯǯǱȱȱȱǯ ǰȱǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ States. Fisheries řŚǰȱśśśȬśśŞ ǰȱǯǰȱǭȱǰȱǯǯǰȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ecosystem. Ecology ŞśǰȱŘŗŖŖȬŘŗŖŜǯ ęǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǭȱ¢ǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȱȱȱȱǱȱ ȱȱ ǯȱ Journal of Neuroendocrinology ŗśǰȱŝŗŗȬŝŘŚǯ

ȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ2 emission policies ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŞǻŘǼǱȱŗŖśȬŗŘřǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱȱǰȱ ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱAt Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulner- ability, and Disasters. Second Edition. London: Routledge. ǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŗşŞşǯȱ ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ in the Indian River Lagoon System, Florida. Copeia ŗşŞşȱŜşŜȬŝŖřǯ ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȂȱǯȱ ȱȱ¢ ŗŜ, 1923-1935. Wolf, S.G., Sydeman, W.J., ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰ C.L. Tershy, ǯǯ & Croll, D.A. 2009. Range- ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȂȱ. Ecology şŖ, ŝŚŘ-753. ǰȱǯ ǯȱŘŖŖŚǯȱȱȱȱǱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱǯ ȱǯǯȱǰȱǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱAvoiding Dangerous Climate Change , ǯȬ ǯȱȱȱǯȱǻǯǼǯȱǰȱǯ ǯǱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǰȱǭȱǰȱǯǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ stability. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A řŜŗǰȱŗşŜŗȬŗşŝś Ĵǰȱ ǯǯǰȱęǰȱǯǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖŞǯȱ¢ȱĴȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬȱȬ¢ȱǯȱProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA ŗŖśǰȱŗŞŞŚŞȬŗŞŞśřǯ ȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱě¢ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǯǰȱĵǰȱ ǯ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ £ǰȱ ǯ ǯȱǭȱǰȱǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱ Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services. Science řŗŚǰȱŝŞŝȬŝşŖǯ ǯǯǯȦȦĚ Yamane, L., & Gilman, S.E. 2009. Opposite responses by an intertidal predator to increasing ȱȱȱǯȱMarine Ecology Progress Series řşřǰȱŘŝȬřŜǯ References 249

ȱȱȱȱŗşşŞǯȱYear of the Oceans – Coastal Tourism. National Oceanic & Atmospheric ȱǻǼǰȱǯǯȱȱȱǯȱĴǱȦȦ ǯ¢şŞǯǯȦ¢Ȧ ȦȏȏřŗŜǯȱǻȱ ¢ȱŗşǰȱŘŖŗŘǼǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǯȱǯȱ ĜǰȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŗŖǼǯȱȃȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ¢Ȭȱ¢ȱ ǯȄȱ ȱȱȱŘřǻŗŝǼǱȱŚśŞśȬŚŜŖŝǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱǯȱǰȱȱǯǯȱȱǻŘŖŗŗǼȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱǯȱ ȱȱŘŚǰȱŘŖŗŗǰȱȱ ǯ¡ǯǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ĵǰȱǯȱǭȱǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱȱ Ȭȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ climate change on tourism related climate resources. Climatic Change şś, 551-573. Zacherl, D., Gaines, S.D. & Lonhart, S.I. 2003. The limits to biogeographical distributions: insights ȱȱ ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱǰȱKelletia kelletiiȱǻǰȱŗŞśŘǼǯȱJournal ȱ¢ řŖǰȱşŗřȬşŘŚǯ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱãǰȱǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱ ǰȱǯǯǰȱ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǰȱǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱĜǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŖśǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱ during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Science řŖŞǰȱŗŜŗŗȬŗŜŗśǯ ǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱ ǯǰȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ ǰȱ ǯȱǭȱ ǰȱǯȱŘŖŗŗǯȱȱȱȱ selection and dispersal helps explain genetic structure in intertidal mussels. Oecologia ŗŜś, şŚŝȬşśŞǯ ȱ ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǯȱǻŘŖŖŞǼǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŘŖŖŝǵȱ ¢ȱȱĴȱřśǱŗŗśŖśǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŖǯȱȱĴȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǯȱ ȱ ȱȱȱǰȱśŝǰȱŚřŞȬŚśŗǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖřǯȱȬȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱǰȱŜśǰȱŗŖřȬŗŘŗǯ ǰȱ ǯȱȱ ǯȱ ǯȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǱȱȬȱ ȱ ȱěǵȱȱȱ¢ǰȱŜŞǰȱŗŞŚȬŘŖŚǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯȱǰȱǯȱ£ǰȱȱǯȱǯȱŗşşŗǯȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱǯȱȱ¢ǰȱŗŖşǰȱřŘŗȬřřŚǯ ¢ǰȱǯǯǰȱǭȱ ǰȱ ǯǯȱŘŖŗŖǯȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱ of early life history stages of red abalone (Haliotis rufescens). ȱȱęȱ Řş, ŚŘşȬŚřşǯ ǰȱǯǰȱǯǯȱǰȱǯȱ¢ǰȱ ǯȱǰȱ ǯǯȱǰȱȱǯȱŘŖŖşǯȱ ȱ dissemination of Leptospira interrogans serovar Pomona during seasonal migration of Cali- fornia sea lions. Veterinary Microbiology 137: 105-110. Oceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate ȱ ęȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯǯȱǯȱȱȱȱȱ of technical inputs for the third National Climate Assessment (NCA) ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯǯȱ ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱ impacts on ocean ecosystems across sectors.

Cover design: Maureen Gately ȱǱ Livia Kent

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