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RUSSIA’S Mark Galeotti NTELLIGENCE Professor of Global Affairs I Director, Initiative for the Study of Emerging Threats YSTEM SPS Center for Global Affairs S New York University Mark Galeotti @MarkGaleotti New York University https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/
Continuity Continuity
1st CD SVR Espionage Foreign Intelligence Service
2nd/3rd/5th CD FSB Polit. Sec. Federal Security Service
9th CD FSO Praetorians Federal Guard Service
8th/16th CD FAPSI, then FSB/ SIGINT GRU
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Continuity Continuity
SVR FSB
Foreign Federal Security Intelligence Service Service
Continuity What is Distinctive?
GRU Overlapping Responsibilities Constant and direct turf wars—and not just Main Intelligence for funding and access Directorate of the Emphasis on active operations General Staff “Wartime” mindset Corruption Level of political support under Putin
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Overlapping Responsibilities Overlapping Responsibilities
SVR SVR Crimea FSB GRU FSB GRU
Turf Wars Turf Wars
Key Key Budgets Budgets Resps. Resps. 2000-2 ‘Tri Kita’ case Putin’s Business Putin’s Business Ear Opps. Ear Opps. CONFLICT CONFLICT2003, end of FAPSI
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Active Operations Wartime Mindset
Gather • Espionage Zero-Sum/Cold War Intel. • “If the West loses, we gain”
Inform Sense of Real Threat • Advocacy Policy • “Russia is at risk” Action-oriented Direct • Action Ops • “Better action than inaction”
Corruption Corruption
Lack of Lack of Lack of Controls Lack of Controls Transpar- Transpar- ency ency
Informat- Informat- ion & ion & Force Sub-Lt JeffreyForce DeLisle
Culture of Corruption Culture of Corruption
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Putin’s Boys Putin’s Boys 2008-13 decline Budgets of GRU Budgets
Freedom Freedom
Demands Demands
Outcomes Outcomes
Massive and sustained expansion in networks and Massive and sustained expansion in networks and increased scale, tempo and aggressiveness of ops increased scale, tempo and aggressiveness of ops “the threat from Russian espionage Relative lack of oversight, so long as believed to be Relative lack of oversight,continues so longto be assignificant believed toand be is delivering delivering similar to the Cold War …the number of Russian intelligence High level of corruption High level of corruptionofficers in London is at the same level as in Soviet times.” Unwillingness to tell hard truths Unwillingness to tell hard truths -- MI5, 2010 Takes heavy Kremlin pressure to get them to “play Takes heavy Kremlin pressure to get them to “play nice” nice”
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Outcomes Conclusion: Beware what you wish for
Massive and sustained expansion in networks and technically increased scale, tempo and aggressiveness of ops They are highly capable, even if sometimes badly tasked Relative lack of oversight, so long as believed to be delivering They now reinforce Putin’s assumptions, not inform his world view High level of corruption They reinforce the world’s view of Putinism Unwillingness to tell hard truths
Takes heavy Kremlin pressure to get them to “play They are cynical opportunists at home, loyal nice” to themselves
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