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Morning Focus October 24, 2018 Korea Morning Focus Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) KT (030200/Buy/TP: W38,000) Raise TP KOSPI 2,106.10 -55.61 -2.57 Watch for enhanced asset efficiency KOSPI 200 272.54 -6.86 -2.46 KOSDAQ 719.00 -25.15 -3.38 POSCO Daewoo (047050/Buy/TP: W24,000) Lower TP Gas field recovery: A matter of when Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value GS E&C (006360/Buy/TP: W58,000) KOSPI 363,224 5,856 KOSPI 200 83,332 4,462 Holding steady KOSDAQ 479,472 3,095 Market Cap (Wbn) Sector News & Analysis Value Entertainment (Overweight) KOSPI 1,410,672 An ideal market environment KOSDAQ 240,262 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,329 1,748 -419 Institutional 1,246 1,489 -243 Retail 3,269 2,628 641 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 285 401 -116 Institutional 239 228 11 Retail 2,577 2,475 102 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,181 1,566 -385 KOSDAQ 185 236 -51 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 67 809 22 KOSDAQ 93 1,120 41 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Celltrion 246,500 -22,000 788 Samsung Electronics 43,050 -500 406 KODEX KOSDAQ150 13,800 -1,005 395 LEVERAGE KODEX LEVERAGE 12,185 -610 287 Digital Power 6,200 1,000 262 Communication KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value SillaJen 81,500 -6,500 240 ECOPRO 44,650 -1,050 113 Celltrion Healthcare 74,400 -5,800 97 Posco Chemtech 67,900 -6,300 86 HLB 99,000 -5,400 78 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Note: As of October 23, 2018 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Mirae Asset Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. KT (030200 KS) Watch for enhanced asset efficiency Telecom Service 3Q18 preview: OP of W349.8bn, slightly below the consensus Earnings Preview For 3Q18, we forecast KT to post consolidated revenue of W5.87tr and operating profit October 23, 2018 of W349.8bn. Our operating profit estimate is modestly below the consensus (W388bn), mainly due to our expectation of higher marketing expenses. We estimate gross subscriber additions (new, device upgrades, and mobile number porting combined) increased more than 100,000 QoQ to around 1.7mn in 3Q18. We believe there were also some marketing expenses in the fixed-line space, aimed at retaining initial GiGA (Maintain) Buy internet subscribers whose contracts were ending. We believe a W27bn one-time contribution to the broadcast development fund was another major factor behind the ▲ Target Price (12M, W) 38,000 QoQ operating profit decline. Share Price (10/23/18, W) 29,800 Fixed-line business continuing steady growth Despite its already high market share, we believe KT saw net subscriber additions in Expected Return 28% the internet space in 3Q18, thanks to its early advance and leadership in the GiGA internet market. Such net subscriber growth is particularly impressive, considering the contract expiry of initial GiGA internet subscribers. We believe the IPTV segment is also OP (18F, Wbn) 1,399 continuing net subscriber additions, which have exceeded 100,000 for four consecutive Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 1,384 quarters. We estimate more than 100,000 were net added again in 3Q18. The growth in IPTV subscribers is even more encouraging, as it drives VOD sales and supports the EPS Growth (18F, %) 56.0 growth of home shopping and T-commerce. Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 13.3 P/E (18F, x) 10.5 Poised to benefit from 5G rollout Market P/E (18F, x) 8.5 We believe KT is well-positioned to lead the 5G market by building upon its experience KOSPI 2,106.10 in operating 5G services during the PyeongChang Winter Olympics. We think fixed-line Market Cap (Wbn) 7,781 networks will become an important source of competitiveness in the 5G era, as the Shares Outstanding (mn) 261 amount of data is expected to significantly increase. While efforts are underway to Free Float (%) 82.4 allow operators to share essential equipment in exchange for a usage charge, we still Foreign Ownership (%) 49.0 think directly owning related equipment and technologies gives KT a competitive edge. Beta (12M) 0.43 The usage charges can also serve as a source of additional revenue growth. 52-Week Low 26,700 Maintain Buy and raise TP to W38,000 52-Week High 31,300 While 3Q18 operating profit looks likely to be weaker than previously anticipated due (%) 1M 6M 12M to higher-than-expected marketing spend and one-off expenses, our 4Q18 and 2019 Absolute 2.1 9.8 0.3 estimates remain unchanged. We maintain our Buy call on KT and raise our target Relative 13.3 28.9 18.6 price to W38,000, as we changed our valuation base year to 2019. KT’s current market value corresponds to a P/E of 10x and an EV/EBITDA of less than 3x. The company also 110 KT KOSPI looks severely undervalued when considering its real estate assets, which have a total 100 market value of W8tr. We believe some of this should be reflected into the stock’s 90 valuation, given the ease with which real estate assets can be securitized nowadays, following recent moves to revitalize publicly traded REITs. 80 70 10.17 2.18 6.18 10.18 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [Telecom Service/IoT] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Revenue (Wbn) 22,281 22,744 23,387 23,378 23,668 23,997 Hakmoo Lee +822-3774-1785 OP (Wbn) 1,293 1,440 1,375 1,399 1,424 1,523 [email protected] OP margin (%) 5.8 6.3 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.3 NP (Wbn) 553 711 477 744 774 868 EPS (W) 2,118 2,723 1,826 2,847 2,965 3,325 ROE (%) 5.2 6.4 4.1 6.0 5.9 6.3 P/E (x) 13.3 10.8 16.6 10.5 10.0 9.0 P/B (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Dividend yield (%) 1.8 2.7 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. October 23, 2018 KT Earnings and forecasts Table 1. 3Q18 preview (Wbn, %, %p) 3Q18F Growth 3Q17 2Q18 Mirae Asset Daewoo Consensus YoY QoQ Revenue 5,827 5,807 5,870 5,846 0.7 1.1 Operating profit 377 399 350 388 -7.3 -12.4 OP margin (%) 6.5 6.9 6.0 6.6 -0.5 -0.9 Pretax profit 317 391 289 287 -8.7 -26.1 Net profit 180 251 189 196 5.0 -24.8 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; net profit is attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, WISEfn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Quarterly earnings and forecasts (Wbn, %) 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18F 4Q18F Operating revenue 5,515 5,678 5,530 6,021 5,612 5,842 5,827 6,107 5,710 5,807 5,870 5,991 Wireless 1,851 1,880 1,884 1,803 1,794 1,781 1,816 1,813 1,741 1,764 1,765 1,779 Fixed-line 1,279 1,286 1,255 1,245 1,254 1,226 1,218 1,203 1,199 1,181 1,168 1,152 Media/content 442 471 495 514 520 561 573 585 554 595 609 623 Finance 823 858 866 881 847 915 874 893 833 867 891 911 Other 505 546 540 584 534 586 567 565 537 597 573 570 Merchandise sales 616 636 490 995 663 773 779 1,048 847 803 863 956 Operating expenses 5,119 5,251 5,128 5,795 5,195 5,395 5,449 5,972 5,313 5,408 5,520 5,738 * Marketing expenses 625 738 687 702 640 627 678 703 616 552 593 583 Operating profit 396 427 402 226 417 447 377 134 397 399 350 253 OP margin 7.2 7.5 7.3 3.8 7.4 7.7 6.5 2.2 7.0 6.9 6.0 4.2 Net profit 223 255 235 93 224 258 203 -122 224 195 211 119 Net margin 4.0 4.5 4.2 1.5 4.0 4.4 3.5 -2.0 3.9 3.4 3.6 2.0 YoY Operating revenue 1.4 4.7 0.8 1.0 1.8 2.9 5.4 1.4 1.8 -0.6 0.7 -1.9 Wireless 1.6 2.8 2.5 -3.8 -3.1 -5.3 -3.6 0.6 -2.9 -1.0 -2.8 -1.9 Fixed-line -2.0 -0.8 -2.3 -1.8 -1.9 -4.7 -3.0 -3.4 -4.4 -3.6 -4.1 -4.2 Media/content 15.2 15.1 15.3 16.6 17.5 19.2 15.8 13.8 6.6 6.0 6.4 6.5 Finance -0.8 7.1 3.7 -10.4 3.0 6.7 0.9 1.3 -1.7 -5.3 2.0 2.0 Other 22.9 12.8 7.3 14.2 5.8 7.2 5.0 -3.2 0.6 1.9 1.0 1.0 Merchandise sales -10.2 5.2 -17.8 12.9 7.7 21.5 59.1 5.4 27.7 3.9 10.8 -8.8 Operating expenses 0.1 3.7 -0.4 1.8 1.5 2.8 6.3 3.1 2.3 0.2 1.3 -3.9 * Marketing expenses -12.4 4.7 -7.8 -5.0 2.4 -15.0 -1.3 0.2 -3.7 -12.0 -12.5 -17.2 Operating profit 23.3 18.0 19.1 -15.3 5.4 4.8 -6.0 -40.7 -4.8 -10.8 -7.3 88.7 Net profit -23.3 -19.3 92.1 TTB 3.6 1.8 -10.8 -41.5 -6.4 -10.2 -8.0 92.4 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; net profit is attributable to controlling and non-controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 3.
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