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Morning Brew: October 20, 2020 U.S

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Morning Brew: October 20, 2020 U.S PORTFOLIO STRATEGY | PUBLISHED BY RAYMOND JAMES & ASSOCIATES Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy | (901) OCTOBER 20, 2020 | 8:50 AM EDT 579-4346 | [email protected] Joey Madere, CFA | (901) 529-5331 | [email protected] Richard Sewell, CFA | (901) 524-4194 | [email protected] Mitch Clayton, CMT, Senior Technical Analyst | (901) 579-4812 | [email protected] Morning Brew: October 20, 2020 U.S. FUTURES (BRIEFING.COM) The S&P 500 futures trade 25 points, or 0.7%, above fair value to recoup some of yesterday's decline, while investors assess the latest updates on stimulus, earnings, and a vaccine. After it was reported yesterday that a stimulus deal didn't look imminent, House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin came out of their meeting with news that they continued to narrow some differences. Both will speak again today, which is supposedly the last day a deal can be reached in order to pass it before the election. This stimulus development is accordingly being viewed as good news. Other good news includes commentary that Moderna's (MRNA 73.38, +2.42, +3.4%) vaccine could be available in December and earnings reports from Procter & Gamble (PG 143.75, +1.84, +1.3%) and Travelers (TRV 115.50, +3.66, +3.3%). IBM (IBM 122.00, -3.52, -2.8%) is a notable earnings laggard. On the data front, investors will receive Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1.430 million) and Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 1.510 million) for September at 8:30 a.m. ET. Longer-dated Treasuries have extended yesterday's losses, pushing yields to recent highs. The 2-yr yield is flat at 0.15%, and the 10-yr yield is up two basis points to 0.78%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 93.26. WTI crude futures are up 0.1% to $41.11/bbl. U.S equity futures: ● S&P 500 Futures +22 @ 3445 ● DJIA Futures +172 @ 28272 ● Nasdaq Futures +71 @ 11721 Overseas: ● Europe: DAX -0.3%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC +0.6% . Sources: Briefing.com, FactSet, Raymond James Research, ● Asia: Nikkei -0.4%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Shanghai +0.5% Raymond James Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy INTERNATIONAL HEADQUARTERS: THE RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL CENTER | 880 CARILLON PARKWAY | ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA 33716 PORTFOLIO STRATEGY . Source: FactSet and RJ Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy In U.S. Corporate news: ● Procter & Gamble (PG 143.75, +1.84): +1.3% after beating top and bottom-line estimates, guiding FY21 EPS mostly above consensus, and increasing the range for its share buyback plan. ● IBM (IBM 122.00, -3.52): -2.8% after reporting in-line results. ● Travelers (TRV 115.50, +3.66): +3.3% after beating top and bottom-line estimates. ● Parsley Energy (PE 11.25, +1.15): +11.4% on news that it's nearing a deal to be purchased by Pioneer Natural Resources (PDX 87.05, unch), according to TheWallStreetJournal. ● Moderna (MRNA 73.38, +2.42): +3.4% after its CEO said he believes the FDA could grant the company's vaccine emergency use authorization in December. Today’s U.S. Economic Data (Briefing.com) ● 08:30 ET: Housing Starts for September (Briefing.com Consensus 1430K; Prior 1416K) ● 08:30 ET: Building Permits for September (Briefing.com Consensus 1510K; Prior 1470K) OVERSEAS OVERNIGHT SUMMARY (BRIEFING.COM) ● Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.1%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.5%, India's Sensex: +0.3%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.5%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.6%. ○ In economic data: – China's September House Prices 4.6% yr/yr (last 4.8%) PAGE 2 OF 7 PORTFOLIO STRATEGY – Hong Kong's September Unemployment Rate 6.4% (last 6.1%) – New Zealand's Q3 NZIER Business Confidence -40% (last -63%) ○ In news: – The People's Bank of China left its one-year and five-year loan prime rates at their respective 3.85% and 4.65% for the sixth month in a row. – Standard & Poor's affirmed Australia's AAA rating with a Negative outlook. – The Reserve Bank of Australia is looking at ways of lowering its cash rate toward zero without taking the rate negative. ● Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note while Germany's DAX (-0.3%) lags. STOXX Europe 600: UNCH, Germany's DAX: -0.3%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.3%, France's CAC 40: +0.6%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.7%, Spain's IBEX 35: +1.1%. ○ In economic data: – Eurozone's August Current Account surplus EUR19.90 bln (expected surplus of EUR17.20 bln; last surplus of EUR16.60 bln) – Germany's September PPI 0.4% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.0%); -1.0% yr/yr (expected -1.4%; last -1.2%) – Swiss September trade surplus CHF3.28 bln (expected surplus of CHF4.32 bln; last surplus of CHF3.54 bln) ○ In news: – Negotiators from the U.K. and the European Union have yet to make meaningful progress toward a trade deal. – The EU is set to sell EUR17 bln in 10- and 20-yr social bonds. – UBS and Logitech reported better than expected earnings. ● STOCK HEADLINES (BRIEFING.COM) Earnings/Guidance: ● Albertsons (ACI) beats by $0.37, reports revs in-line; guides FY21 EPS above consensus ● AMC Entertainment (AMC) reports prelim Q3 results; enters into 15 mln share Class A common stock equity distribution agreement ● BancorpSouth (BXS) beats by $0.15, net interest revenue increased 5.6% ● BHP Group (BHP) reports Q1 production; copper equivalent production increased by 2% ● Cadence Design (CDNS) beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY20 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus ● Centogene (CNTG) raises FY20 revenue guidance ● Comerica (CMA) beats by $0.60 ● Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) beats by $0.41, beats on revs ● Crown (CCK) beats by $0.38, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus; guides FY20 EPS above consensus, announces plans to initiate a dividend ● Dover (DOV) beats by $0.28, beats on revs; guides FY20 EPS above consensus ● Equity Lifestyle Properties (ELS) beats by $0.02, beats on revs ● F.N.B. Corp (FNB) beats by $0.03 ● Golub Capital (GBDC) reports preliminary Q4 results ● Graphic Packaging (GPK) beats by $0.04, beats on revs ● Hexcel (HXL) misses by $0.36, misses on revs ● IBM (IBM) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line PAGE 3 OF 7 PORTFOLIO STRATEGY ● Ingevity (NGVT) reports prelim Q3 results above consensus; commences private offering of $550.0 million in aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes ● IQVIA (IQV) beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY21 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus ● Iridium Communications (IRDM) beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides FY20 revs below consensus ● Jazz Pharma (JAZZ) announces publication of Phase 3 Xywav study in SLEEP ● Lockheed Martin (LMT) beats by $0.15, beats on revs; raises FY20 EPS guidance above consensus, revs above consensus ● Logitech Int'l SA (LOGI) beats by $1.33, beats on revs; guides FY21 revs above consensus ● Lowe's (LOW) to launch holiday deals in-store and online beginning Thursday, October 22 ● Manpower (MAN) beats by $0.55, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS mostly above consensus ● Ocwen Fincl (OCN) reports prelim Q3 results; balance sheet optimization actions on track ● Pentair (PNR) beats by $0.19, beats on revs; guides FY20 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus ● Philip Morris International (PM) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides FY20 EPS in-line ● PPG Industries (PPG) beats by $0.01, beats on revs ● Procter & Gamble (PG) beats by $0.21, beats on revs; guides FY21 EPS mostly above consensus; ups buyback plan range ● Regions Fincl (RF) beats by $0.16, beats on revs ● Signature Bank (SBNY) misses by $0.09 ● Steel Dynamics (STLD) beats by $0.03, beats on revs ● Synchrony Financial (SYF) beats by $0.04, net interest income decreased 21% ● Synovus (SNV) beats by $0.37 ● Travelers (TRV) beats by $0.05, beats on revs ● UBS AG (UBS) beats by $0.16, beats on revs ● Vale S.A. (VALE) reports sales and production data for Q3 ● Zions Bancorp (ZION) beats by $0.12 General News: ● President Trump and Joe Biden will have their microphones muted during a portion of Thursday's presidential debate where each candidate will give opening statements on the topic, according to the NewYorkTimes ● House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have "narrowed" some differences on stimulus and will speak again today. Senate Republicans continue to be against a larger package, but will vote on extension of PPP funding today and a $500 bln package tomorrow, according to the Bloomberg ● Republicans have gained voter registration in key states of North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania even though President Trump is trailing in the polls in those states, according to the NewYorkTimes ● Supreme Court will allow mail in ballots to be received three days after Election Day in Pennsylvania, according to TheHill ● Align Tech (ALGN) files new lawsuit against 3Shape in Texas Federal Court for patent infringement ● Aptinyx (APTX) reports "positive" top-line data from Phase 2 study of NYX-783 in patients with post-traumatic stress disorder; data support discussion with FDA and advancement into pivotal study ● AstraZeneca (AZN) receives Priority Review in the US for the adjuvant treatment of patients with early-stage EGFR-mutated lung cancer PAGE 4 OF 7 PORTFOLIO STRATEGY ● Canadian Pacific (CP) announces strategic, multi-year rail agreement with A.P.
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