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The Business Dynamics in Telecommunication Market Consolidation George Amstad Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College

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The Business Dynamics in Telecommunication Market Consolidation George Amstad Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School 2006 The business dynamics in telecommunication market consolidation George Amstad Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods Commons Recommended Citation Amstad, George, "The business dynamics in telecommunication market consolidation" (2006). LSU Master's Theses. 4006. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4006 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE BUSINESS DYNAMICS IN TELECOMMUNICATION MARKET CONSOLIDATION A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College In Partial fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science In The Department of Information Systems & Decision Sciences By George Amstad stud.rer.pol University of Berne, 2006 December 2006 Acknowledgements I am grateful to Dr. Thomas D. Clark, my advisor, for his active support, patience and commitment to help me developing our model. I especially appreciate his input when I was stuck in the modeling process and he showed me new modeling approaches to solve this situation. I would like to thank Dr. Edward F. Watson who introduced me to the Information Systems & Decision Sciences Master program. He demonstrated exceptional patience and stamina, answering my numerous administrative questions. I want to thank Dr. Dan B. Rinks. It made me really happy that he agreed to serve on my Thesis committee. I would like to expand my gratitude to Mr. Levent Atak and the whole Strategic Development & Planning Team at Swisscom Solutions based in Swisscom’s Headquarters in Worblaufen, Switzerland. I always appreciated your feedback and interesting conversations over the phone. Last but not least, I would like to say thank you to my parents, Jörg and Theres, who made this all possible. They supported me financially and emotionally when I was homesick. ii Table of Contents Acknowledgements…………………………………………………................... ii Abstract……………….……………………………………………………………. iv 1. The Field of Systems Theory………………………………………………… 1 1.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………… 1 1.2 The History of Systems Theory………………………………………. 2 1.3 The Entities in a System Dynamics Model………………………….. 11 1.4 The History of Telecommunication…………………………………… 12 1.5 The History of Telecommunication in Switzerland………………….. 15 2. A Model of the Mobile Telecommunication Market………………………. 20 2.1 Introduction to the Model………………………………………………. 20 2.2 Market Model……………………………………………………………. 22 2.3 Costs……………………………………………………………………… 22 2.4 Price………………………………………………………………………. 24 2.5 Number of Users………………………………………………………… 29 2.6 Revenues………………………………………………………………… 31 2.7 Value of the Telecommunication Market……………………………… 32 2.8 Number of Operators…………………………………………………… 34 3. Discussion……………………………………………………………………….. 36 3.1 The Liberalization of the Telecommunication Market……………….. 36 3.2 Telecommunication Administration Agencies………………………… 38 3.3 Interconnection…………………………………………………………… 38 3.4 ComCom………………………………………………………………….. 38 3.5 A New Procedure to Determine Interconnection Prices………………. 39 3.6 Competition from Cablecom…………………………………………….. 40 3.7 Unbundling in the European Union…………………………………….. 40 3.8 The New Televisor Law………………………………………………….. 41 3.9 Conclusion………………………………………………………………… 42 References…………………………………………………………………………… 45 Vita…………………………………………………………………………………….. 49 iii Abstract The Swiss telecommunication market is quite different from the markets in surrounding European countries. The Swiss Market is characterized by a very small number of competitors and relatively high and stable prices. The model in this thesis explains shows how the limited competition enables the mobile telecommunication service providers to keep prices up. This is due to a oligopoly market situation linked to complicated laws that discourage new competitors to join the Swiss market. Later in 2006, the Swiss federal council will pass the new televisor law, which will make it significantly easier to join the Swiss market. This will most likely result in lower prices for Swiss mobile telecommunication users. iv 1. The Field of System Theory 1.1 Introduction “It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.”1 The greatest constant in our times is change. Our world is changing at an accelerating speed - economically, socially and politically. Information technology plays a crucial role as an enabler in this transformation. Some of the changes are positive, some negative. Emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil profit from Globalization, while other countries are left behind. The chances of economic recovery of most African countries are smaller than ever due to the Information Technology divide, often called Information gap. The causes for change are versatile and often hard to comprehend. Systems theory is a relatively young interdisciplinary field, which can be utilized to describe and explain complex phenomena. Analyzing the structure of a model and its functions can help to predict how the system will react in specific situations. Systems theory can help decision makers to understand complex combination of circumstances, improve the quality of their decisions and adapt to new situations faster and more successful. After all – “change is inevitable - except from a vending machine.”2 The term system (from the Latin (systema), and Greek σύστημα (sustēma))3 describes an assemblage of elements and the relationships among those elements. Any element which shares no relationship with any other element of the system is not a part of that system. 1 Author unknown, commonly misattributed to Charles Darwin 2 Robert C. Gallagher 3 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System 1 The entities of a system interface in order to facilitate the 'flow' of information, energy or matter.4 Systems theory examines the interdependence of these relationships and how the entities are organized within a particular system. Systems theory methods enjoy popularity across various academic fields and have been applied to many different disciplines such as physics, sociology, chemistry and biology. Very prominent is the application of system dynamics within sociology, better known as social dynamics. A more detailed description of social dynamics and Niklas Luhmann will be given later in this chapter. In reality, many systems are to complex to research. A scientific model is a conceptual or abstract representation of the reality. The purpose of such a model is to reduce complexity through focusing only on certain aspects which determine the area of interest. The process of modeling is often difficult, because the modeler has to make trade off decisions between complexity and accuracy. A mental model describes the thought process of the modeler and how he thinks the elements of the system interact with each other. 1.2 The History of Systems Theory Systems theory is a relatively young academic discipline. The foundation stone was set during the first half of the 20th Century. The industrial revolution created demand for more sophisticated management methods and instruments to control and administrate complex projects and production processes. Economies and societies underwent a phase of tremendous change. Change in industrial production was just one aspect of this remarkable time. Academic research began to address elementary questions such as evolution and the structures and functions that determine the processes within a system. 4 Einführung in die Systemwissenschaft, Prof. Dr. Michael Matthies, 2002 2 This new research approach was adapted by scientists in all major fields (biology, chemistry, physics, sociology, and tectonics). This is the reason why systems theory has slightly different meanings in variable fields. Karl Ludwig von Bertalanffy was the first to realize and promote the potential and importance of a holistic systems theory. His goal was to detect interdisciplinary similarities among the “sub disciplines” of systems theory.5 He is often referred to as the “father of systems theory”. Figure 1.1: Karl Ludwig von Bertalanffy6 Born September 19, 1901 in Wien (Austria); † June 12, 1972 in New York (U.S.A.)7 Because of his crucial role in the development of systems theory, it is worth knowing more about this revolutionary thinker. Ludwig von Bertalanffy was born in Atzgersdorf, a village near Vienna on September 19, 1901.8 By the age of 18 he began his studies of philosophy and art history at the University of Innsbruck (Austria). Two years after completing his PhD studies, he published his first book “Modern Theories of Development”. In this book he describes how biological systems are self-governed by organizational dynamics. The organismic system theory was born. 5 Einführung in die Systemwissenschaft, Prof. Dr. Michael Matthies, 2002 6 Source of picture : http://www.pensament.com/filoxarxa/novesimatges/bertalanffy1.jpg 7 http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludwig_von_Bertalanffy 8 http://www.psy.pdx.edu/PsiCafe/KeyTheorists/vonBertalanffy.htm 3 His ambition was to unite growth, morphogenesis, metabolism and sense physiology to a dynamic theory
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