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Market Roundup Company Focus: Unilever 20 July

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Market Roundup Company Focus: Unilever 20 July 20 July 2018 Market Roundup A heavy fall in the oil price saw BP and Royal Dutch Shell down more Chart 1: UK employment (thousands, March to May 2018) than 2% on Monday. The FTSE 100 lost 0.8%. Full-time employment WPP slid nearly 3% on Tuesday after rival Omnicom reported weaker- than-expected growth amid lower demand in the UK and US. Paddy Power Betfair led the day’s blue-chip fallers, off 3.2% on a broker Part-time employment downgrade. Unemployment The FTSE 100 gained 0.7% on Wednesday as the pound fell on weaker-than-expected inflation data. Dollar earners Johnson Matthey Economic inactivity (aged 16 to 64) and Ashtead were up more than EasyJet also added 2.2% after reporting a 14% increase in quarterly Economic inactivity (aged 65 and over) revenues. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Men Women Thursday saw the pound dip below $1.30 following disappointing UK retail sales figures. Unilever (Company Focus below) led the gainers, Source: ONS Data at 19/7/2018 up 3% on hopes for second-half growth. Chart 2: UK consumer inflation (CPI, %) Moneysupermarket also rallied after interim results met expectations, 6 partly due to a recovery in its energy-switching business. 5 UK shares were mixed in early trading on Friday as President Trump said he was ready to impose tariffs on all $500bn of US imports from 4 China. 3 Company Focus: Unilever 2 Unilever shareholders will vote in October on the company’s proposal 1 to abandon its dual listing and Anglo-Dutch legal structure, the 0 consumer goods giant confirmed on Thursday. Jul-10 Jul-15 Apr-09 Oct-11 Apr-14 Oct-16 Jun-08 Jan-13 Jun-13 Jan-18 Jun-18 -1 Mar-12 Mar-17 Feb-10 Feb-15 Nov- 08 Dec- 10 Nov- 13 Dec- 15 Sep-09 Aug-12 Sep-14 Aug-17 Unilever has faced a backlash from some UK investors since it May-11 May-16 announced its intention to base the unified company in the UK CP I Netherlands. Source: ONS Data at 19/7/2018 The move, intended to simplify the group’s structure, will see the company fall out of the FTSE 100 index. Chart 3: Unilever revenues (2017) Unilever also announced that profits shrank in the first half of the year 18.49% as a truckers’ strike in Brazil, one of its biggest markets, held back growth. 38.53% Underlying sales growth - excluding the spreads’ business, which was sold this month - was up 2.7% from the same six-month period a year earlier. 23.29% By region, underlying sales growth in Asia was up 6.3%, while in Europe price deflation remains a concern. North America was hit by the growth of Amazon and dollar stores. 19.69% Management expects a significant recovery in sales growth in the Personal Care Home Care Foods Refreshment second half. Chief executive Paul Polman said: “Our expectation for the full year is unchanged. We expect underlying sales growth in the 3% to 5% range, an improvement in underlying operating margin and Source: Unilever Annual Report 2017 Data at 19/7/20 strong cash flow. We remain on track for our 2020 goals.” Brewin Dolphin Research Economic Roundup The pound dipped below $1.30 for the first time since last autumn amid poor economic data and Brexit-related political turmoil. Sterling also weakened against the euro, with the pound worth less than €1.12 as the summer holiday season approaches. UK retail sales volumes dropped unexpectedly in June, according to official figures, with a 0.5% monthly decline after growing 1.4% in May and 1.3% in April. Supermarkets and off-licences benefited from the warm weather and World Cup in June, but this was offset by lower sales in non-food stores, accord to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Even so, combined with April and May, sales growth for the second quarter was the fastest since 2015. June’s decline followed wage and inflation data which suggested that the economy was not generating as much inflationary pressure as the Bank of England had forecast - raising questions about the probability of an interest rate rise in August. While UK employment rose by 137,000 in the three months to May and unemployment remained low at 4.2%, average weekly earnings growth slowed to 2.5%. UK inflation rate also came in lower than expected at 2.4% in June. Rising energy costs were offset by falling prices for clothes and recreation. Official data also showed house prices rising at their slowest pace since 2013. The ONS said that UK price growth had slowed to an annual rate of 3% in May from 3.5% in April. London prices were down by an annual 0.4%, compared with rises of 6.3% in the east Midlands and 5% in the west Midlands. Meanwhile, the UK’s public finances continued to improve in June, with the quarterly deficit lower than at any time since 2007. Government borrowing in the first three months of the 2018/19 financial year was £16.8bn, some £5.4bn lower than in the same period last financial year. Andrew Wishart, UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “It’s early days yet, and the data can be subject to large revisions, but if sustained the fall in the deficit would see public borrowing undershoot the Office for Budget Responsibility’s 2018-19 forecast by £7bn or so”. “The upshot is that the OBR should allow the Chancellor a bit more room for manoeuvre in its autumn forecast.” Company announcements that caught our attention this week Date Company Comment 19/7/2018 Babcock In a trading update, Babcock International said it expects to see “low single-digit” growth in International underlying revenue for the full year, after the company’s marine and land divisions were hit by delays in government spending on submarines. The company said its revenues from defence have been impacted by the restructuring of the Defence Equipment and Support organisation, part of the Ministry of Defence, which has led to a slowdown in defence procurement contracts. Babcock also said it had seen an expected decline in revenue from the Queen Elizabeth Carrier project. More positively, the group’s combined order book and pipeline has increased by £1bn to £32bn. More than 80% of revenue for the year ahead is in place, with around 55% for 2019/20. Babcock also announced it is opening an office in Japan to support decommissioning work at the Tokai and Fukushima nuclear power plants. 18/7/2018 Novartis Novartis expects to hit the top of its 2018 sales guidance after strong growth for some of its top products in the second quarter. Sales climbed to US$13.2bn in the three months to the end of June, 5% higher than the same quarter last year in constant currency. Core net income rose to $3.01bn from $2.87bn. Overall net income was skewed by a $5.7bn gain from the sale of its stake in the GSK consumer healthcare joint venture. Chief executive Vas Narasimhan said: “We made significant progress this quarter to transform Novartis into a focused medicines company.” He added that the Swiss drug group had delivered “solid growth” helped by “key growth drivers” including Cosentyx, a psoriasis and arthritis drug, where sales jumped 40% to $701m. Sales for heart-failure drug Entresto more than doubled from a year ago to $239m. Novartis also announced that it will shelve price increases for medicines in the US after criticism from President Trump over rising costs. Brewin Dolphin Research Key Company Diary Dates Tue 24 July PZ Cussons Final results Wed 25 July GlaxoSmithKline Quarterly results Wed 25 July ITV Half-year results Thu 26 July Sky Final results Thu 26 July Renishaw Final results Economic highlights over the next week Tue 24 July – Industrial Trend Orders – The CBI’s industrial orders balance jumped back into positive territory in June, rising to 13 from minus 3 in May. Wed 25 July – Business Optimism Index – The CBI index fell to minus 4 in the second quarter of 2018, from 13 in the previous quarter. Thu 26 July – ECB Interest Rate Decision – The European Central Bank has held interest rates in the eurozone at zero since 2016. Index Movements* Index Value %Change FTSE 100 7,676.28 1.11 FTSE 250 20,984.20 1.66 AIM 1,097.03 0.71 Dow Jones 25,199.29 2.02 S&P 500 2,815.62 1.50 Hang Seng 28,117.42 -0.69 Nikkei 225 22,794.19 3.93 Currency Movements* Currency Pair Value %Change £:$ 1.30 -0.02 £:€ 1.12 -0.01 £:¥ 147.17 0.00 Best & Worst performing sectors (rel. to FTSE 350)* Best & Worst FTSE 100 performing stocks* Sector %Change Company %Change Technology 4.18% Micro Focus International 7.6% Chemicals 3.19% Burberry Group 7.5% Healthcare 1.99% EasyJet 7.0% Utilities -2.27% Centrica -3.8% Telecoms -3.35% BT Group -4.0% Autos & Parts -3.50% Smiths Group -5.3% *Weekly movements up until close of business Thursday Important Notes: Main source of information: Company Report and Accounts, Bloomberg The value of investments and any income from them can fall and you may get back less than you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and performance is shown before charges, which would reduce the illustrated performance. No investment is suitable in all cases and if you have any doubts as to an investment's suitability then you should contact us.
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