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Week in Perspective 15 Nov 2019-6633

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Week in Perspective 15 Nov 2019-6633 15 November 2019 Market Roundup March 2017 UK equities have struggled this week as a stream of economic data highlighted a slowdown in the domestic economy. Mean- Chart 1: UK GDP while, the US/China trade war and geopolitical tensions, such as the increasingly violent demonstrations in Hong Kong, have led 0.8% investors to shun riskier assets. On Monday the FTSE100 fell by 0.4% as the momentum in the trade talks appeared to falter, with 0.6% Donald Trump remarking that they were progressing more slowly 0.4% than he wanted. Shares in mining firms were the biggest losers because of concerns about China’s slowing economy and the 0.2% impact the trade war was having. The FTSE100 gained 0.5% on 0.0% Tuesday, and the FTSE250 closed 0.1% up, despite data show- -0.2% ing a drop in the number of people in work and slowing wage growth, as investors focused more on the upcoming election and -0.4% jostling between the Conservative and Brexit parties. Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Shares lost ground again on Wednesday, with the FTSE100 Feb-15 down 0.2% and the FTSE250 losing 0.7%. Continuing unrest in Source: ONS Data at 15/11/2019 Hong Kong sent shares with exposure to the area down; shares in Prudential and HSBC both lost more than 2%. Thursday was Chart 2: UK Wage Growth and Inflation another down day, with the FTSE100 losing 0.8% and the 5.0 FTSE250 down by 0.3%. Shares were hit by disappointing retail sales data and news on the housing market. Estate agency group 4.0 Savills saw its shares close down by 2.5% while M&S shares lost 3.0 1.5%. In early trading on Friday, shares were heading up. 2.0 Company Focus: British Land 1.0 Property giant British Land, which owns retail, commercial and residential developments across the country, saw its share 0.0 price fall by 3.3% on Thursday after it revealed its retail portfolio -1.0 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 had lost £600m in value the past six months. It said it had writ- Nov-14 ten down the value of its retail investments by 10.7% to £4.8bn CPI Wage growth in the first half of its financial year. It follows a similar 11.1% write-down in the year to March 31. The falling value of its retail Source: ONS Data at 15/11/2019 empire was the main factor behind the company’s loss of £440m for this half year, up from a loss of just £42m this time last year. The company described the situation for its retail busi- Chart 3: British Land Revenue by Sector ness as “challenging” as retailers were battling with rising mini- 1.3% 3.0% mum wage costs, business rates and falling sales as shoppers shift to the internet. The company said it forecast that internet retailing will grow from 19% of UK retail sales to 35-50%. Offices Retail Chris Grigg, the firm’s chief executive, said the prospects for re- 40.9% 54.9% tailers remained grim, in particular outside London. “We expect Residential retail to remain challenging, so we’ll focus on driving operational Canada Water performance and maintaining occupancy. In London, we expect the market to remain good with supply relatively constrained, and high-quality space.” Source: British Land report Data at 15/11/2019 Sources: Sharecast, company reports and accounts Economic Roundup It has been a week of mixed economic data in the UK, although the broad trends indicate a slowing of economic activity. Employment has fallen, inflation has dropped further below the 2% target, retail sales declined in October and economic growth hit its most sluggish pace of expansion in nearly a decade. The good news is that the UK avoided a recession in the third quarter. Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Monday show that the economy grew by 0.3% in the three months to the end of September, rebounding from a contraction of -0.2% in the second quarter. However, the annual growth rate, compared to the same period last year, dropped to just 1% - the slowest annual rate of growth since 2010. Employment data released on Tuesday also indicated a slowdown. The ONS said that the number of people in work fell by 58,000 in the third quarter, the largest drop since 2015. Part-time jobs fell by 164,000. Given these roles are typically occupied by women, it is thought to be the result of cost cutting by retailers as conditions on the high street deteriorate. With less competition in the labour market, wage growth also slowed, with average weekly wages growing at an annual pace of 3.6%, down from 3.9% in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected no change. Also this week, the latest inflation figures saw the increase in the cost of living, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index, fall to an annualised rate of just 1.5%, down from 1.7% in September. The drop was due mostly to a lowering of the cap on energy prices by the regulator, Ofgem. The lower inflation figure will help boost household incomes. With wage increases running at 3.6% a year and inflation at 1.5%, households are seeing real incomes rise by 2.1% a year – something of a silver lining. However, if consumers feel richer, it isn’t showing in the latest retail sales data. There was a surprise downturn in October despite heavy discounting in many shops. Sales were down 0.1% on the month, below expectations of a 0.1% increase, with sales falling in all sectors apart from food stores. The property market is also suffering, according to the latest survey by the Royal Institution for Chartered Surveyors (RICS). The net balance of surveyors saying that house prices had risen over the last three months deteriorated to an index reading of -5 in October from -3 in September. New buyer enquiries improved fractionally, but remained in negative territory at -16, and new instructions fell to -29 from -27. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the RICS, said: "The latest survey feedback continues to suggest that both buyer and seller activity remains in a holding pattern, hampered by political and economic uncertainty”. Overseas, there was disappointing data out of China on Thursday. Industrial production, a measure of growth in sectors including manufacturing and mining, expanded by 4.7% in October, down from 5.8% the month before. Fixed asset invest- ment and purchases of real estate and infrastructure grew by 5.2%, and retail sales increased by 7.2% in October from the previous year. All were below expectations, signalling a continued slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. Company announcements that caught our attention this week: Date Company Comment 14/11/2019 Burberry Luxury fashion brand Burberry was the biggest riser in the FTSE100 on Thursday after announcing first-half results that beat expectations. Shares closed up by 3.3% as it revealed pre-tax profits up by 11% to £193m for the period, with sales up 5% to £1.28bn. The result comes despite a big fall in sales in Hong Kong, where the protests have severely disrupted its business. It saw an increase in most of its global markets but its share of sales from Hong Kong fell to 5% in the latest quarter and the company had closed some stores to keep staff safe. Like-for-like sales increased by 4%, with growth ramping up in the second quarter as its designer Riccardo Tisci proved popular. 12/11/2019 Meggitt Engineering firm Meggitt raised its forecast for annual organic revenue growth thanks to a strong third-quarter performance. The company, which supplies parts for passenger and military planes, saw good performance, especially in the US, but also warned that its margins would be put under pressure - it is a major supplier to Boeing and Airbus, but the relationship with Boeing has hampered its performance as the airline saw its 737 MAX airliners grounded around the world after two fatal accidents in five months. In a trading update on Tuesday, the company said it now expects organic revenues to grow by between 6% and 7%, an increase from its earlier forecast of 4%-6%. This follows organic revenue in the third quarter rising by 11%, and reve- nues from its defence operations rising by 20%. However, full-year operating margins are expected to be towards the lower end of its forecast of 17.7% to 18.2%. Sources: Office for National Statistics (ONS), Royal Institution for Chartered Surveyors (RICS), China’s National Bureau of Statistics, company reports Brewin Dolphin Research Key Company Diary Dates 19 Nov Homeserve plc Interim results 21 Nov Mitie Group plc Interim results 21 Nov Severn Trent plc Final results Economic highlights over the next week 19 Nov – CBI Industrial Trends Orders NOV – The Confederation of British Industry's monthly order book balance slumped nine points to -37 in October 2019, the lowest level since March 2010 and below market expectations of -28. 21 Nov – Public Sector Net Borrowing OCT – The budget deficit in the UK widened to £8.5 bn in September 2019 from £8.2bn in the same month of the previous year, revised data showed.
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