On the Sustainable Development Goals in the Arab World

Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior VP, World Bank Group Looking back: MDG progress Comparing Arab Countries to Developing Countries

Arab Countries 12 0 2 3 Poverty Extreme Developing Countries MDG 1.1 - 1.1 MDG 71 11 7 2 27 27

Arab Countries 1 0 1 12 3 Under-

MDG 1.9 MDG Developing Countries 35 8 4 13 52 33 nourishment

Arab Countries 1 4 1 3 4 3

Primary Developing Countries

MDG 2.1 - 2.1 MDG 40 12 11 17 40 Completion

Arab Countries 6 0 2 7

Developing Countries Education

MDG 3.1 - 3.1 MDG 67 10 7 11 28 25 Gender Parity Gender

Arab Countries 5 1 3 3 5 Under-5

Mortality Developing Countries MDG 4.1 - 4.1 MDG 38 18 16 37 34 25

Arab Countries 0 5 3 9 2 Infant

Mortality Developing Countries MDG 4.2 - 4.2 MDG 6 9 23 28 77 22

Arab Countries 1 0 1 4 11 0 Maternal Mortality Developing Countries MDG 5.1 - 5.1 MDG 15 3 11 20 88 2

Arab Countries 6 0 1 2 7 0 Water

Improved Developing Countries MDG 7.8 - 7.8 MDG 67 5 2 12 40 2

Arab Countries 7 1 0 2 5 0

Improved Developing Countries Sanitation MDG 7.9 - 7.9 MDG 36 7 7 14 58 8

Target Met Sufficient Progress (by 2015) Insufficient Progress Moderately Off Target Seriously Off Target Insufficient Data Global Megatrends Opportunities and Challenges

Demographic Fragility and Urbanization transitions violence

Market volatility Technological Climate change and commodity changes cycles

Renewed debate Shifts in the about global economy globalization

3 The SDGs present a major opportunity for transformation

MDGs (2000-2015) SDGs (2016-2030) Goals/ Targets/Indicators 8/21/60 17/169/~230 Priority Areas Human Development Holistic: Economic, Social, Environmental Scope Developing Countries Universal

Global development agendas serve as a guide for countries to determine their national development path 4 How are Arab countries progressing on the SDGs?

Progress on select SDGs, Arab world and the World 100% 88% 89% 90% 87% 87% 81% 80% 68% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 12% 11% 10% 0% Prevalence of undernourishment People using at least basic People using at least basic drinking Access to electricity (% of (% of population) sanitation services (% of water services (% of population) population) population) SDG 2 SDG 6 SDG 7 Arab World World

5 Leveraging the potential of disruptive changes requires a comprehensive policy framework

Invest in resilience Invest in human (incl. social Invest in capital protection) infrastructure

Enablers Finance Data Implementation

Achieving the SDGs

6 Adapted from: WDR 2019 Changing Nature of Work, World Bank, 2018 Invest in human capital

"Human capital" – the potential of individuals – is going to be the most important long-term investment any country can make for its people’s future, prosperity and quality of life

The Human Capital Project

Three main objectives: 1. Build demand for more and better investments in people 2. Help countries strengthen their human capital strategies and investments for rapid improvements in outcomes 3. Improve how we measure human capital

Three main indicators, reflecting building blocks of human capital: 1. Survival – Will kids born today survive to school age? 2. School – How much school will they complete and how much will they learn? 3. Health – Will kids leave school in good health and be ready for further learning and/or work?

7 Invest in human capital

Rank Economy Lower Value Upper Bound bound

47 Bahrain 0.65 0.67 0.68 49 United Arab 0.64 0.66 0.67 Emirates 54 Oman 0.61 0.62 0.63 60 Qatar 0.60 0.61 0.63 73 Saudi Arabia 0.57 0.58 0.60 77 Kuwait 0.56 0.58 0.59 79 Jordan 0.54 0.56 0.58 82 West Bank & Gaza 0.54 0.55 0.56 86 Lebanon 0.52 0.54 0.55 93 Algeria 0.51 0.52 0.53 96 Tunisia 0.50 0.51 0.52 98 Morocco 0.49 0.50 0.51 104 Egypt 0.47 0.49 0.50 129 Iraq 0.38 0.40 0.41 139 Sudan 0.37 0.38 0.39

145 Yemen 0.35 0.37 0.38 8 Invest in resilience

• Broadly defined as the ability to manage the wide range of shocks and stresses which may occur. These are categorized as natural; technological; or socioeconomic

• Examples of investments include: o Expansion of social protection coverage while giving priority to the poorest people o Strengthening of all aspects of climate and disaster resilient development, including coordinating institutions, risk identification and reduction, preparedness, financial and social 9 protection, and resilient reconstruction

Source: WDR 2019 ; Building Resilience Report; and Investing in urban Resilience Report Invest in infrastructure

Infrastructure Outlook: Africa Infrastructure Outlook: Asia 4E+11 2.3E+12 3.5E+11 2.1E+12 3E+11 1.9E+12 2.5E+11

2E+11 1.7E+12

1.5E+11 1.5E+12

1E+11

1.3E+12

2029 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2030

2017 2018 2019 2016 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Current trends Investment need Current trends Investment need Investment need inc. SDGs Investment need inc. SDGs

10 Source: Global Infrastructure Hub, 2018 Invest in digital infrastructure In low income countries, only 12 percent of people use the internet, but usage is growing.

Features of digital infrastructure in MENA 1. High prices, low speed: limited access to broadband internet 2. Good backbone networks, lack of investment in local access; monopolies in international access 3. Affordability constraints deepen the digital divide across regions and people 4. Highly concentrated markets 5. Challenges with storage capacity 6. Lack of competition in international and data communications 7. Outdated business model 8. Lack of investment in broadband

Source: SDG Atlas 2018 11 The role of the government is to ensure a balance and the best use of finance for development

12 Finance will need to come from multiple sources

Foreign Direct Investment ODA and FDI to the Arab World (net inflows as % of GDP) 1.2E+11 6 1E+11 5 8E+10 4 6E+10

3 4E+10

2 2E+10

1 0

Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$)

2008 2013 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 Arab World World Developing Countries Net official development assistance and official aid received (current US$) Financing sustainable development

When a project is presented, you should ask: “Is there a sustainable private sector solution that limits public debt and contingent liabilities?” If the answer is...

Promote such private sector solutions •The World Bank could play an important role in supporting the government to advance appropriate private sector solutions. i.e. though analytical support, technical assistance for YES relevant reforms and capacity building, project identification and preparation support, project structuring, and support to the government in negotiations with the private sector

Ask whether its because of: • Policy or regulatory gaps or weaknesses? If so, provide WBG support for policy and NO regulatory reforms. • Risks? If so, assess the risks and see whether WBG instruments can address them.

Source: World Bank, 2018 The role of the government is to ensure a sound financial sector

Mobilize Savings and Allocate Investments

Consumer/ Investor Financial Effective Regulations Financial Innovation Protection Literacy

Legal framework to enhance trust, confidence in financial contracts and transactions

15 15 The SDGs are interlinked Data is critical to understanding those relationships

Japan’s goals interlinked to SDG 1

16 Data availability is a universal challenge

Seventy-eight of 169 SDG targets describe potentially assessable outcomes for Canada 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Quantified SDG target Canadian national target Proxy target Not able to assess

Source: “Counting who gets Left Behind” Brookings report, 2018

17 Good Data Informs Implementation

90 Statistical Capacity Score (scale: 0-100) 85

50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 South Asia East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean Europe & Central Asia Middle East & North Africa

18 The role of the government is to implement robust data systems

Institutions Organizations that Data that Are Users Who Are Data Uses Based on Have • Open data • Budgetary • Up to date • Connected • Planning laws autonomy • Disaggregated • Data literate • Policy making • Rights to • Trained staff • Easy to manipulate • Diverse (e.g., • Monitoring privacy • Adequate and visualize • academics, CSOs, • Targeting • Accountabilit installations • Accessible in remote media, local and • Research y to users • Connected areas central • Advocacy • Broad databases • Georeferenced governments) • Lobbying outreach to • Early warning • Contestable • Citizen society systems • From integrated empowerment • Harmonized • International data sets data partnerships conventions

Source: Data for Development: An Evaluation of World Bank Support for Data and Statistical Capacity, Independent Evaluation Group, World Bank, 2018 103 countries have presented VNRs to date during the High-Level Political Forum 8 countries presented more than once High-Level Political Forum UN mechanism for the follow up and review of SDG implementation

Countries’ Most Frequently Identified Priority Areas* 1. Sequencing implementation of goals within context of national priorities

2. Working in partnership to determine national development strategy

3. Coordination within governments; across and within ministries

4. Securing enough financial resources and efficiently allocating them

5. Data availability and institutional capacity

6. Localization and implementation of the goals at the local level

7. Incorporating and mainstreaming gender

8. Integrating action on climate change

* Based on SVPMM analysis The role of the government is to enhance localization of development

U.K. Midlands Indonesia: Successful locally owned businesses help develop local A program is being markets, create innovation, implemented to enhance the success and redistribution in a capacity of local governments self-reinforcing cycle to improve efficiency and effectiveness of local public spending. Also implemented the PNPM program: community driven development

Colombia: Kenya:

A government funded drought insurance program brings satellite based insurance to Kenyan pastoralists and farmers using mPesa.

22 Sample municipal budget

Expenses Revenues 1. Property tax (rates) on land and/or buildings 1. Preschool education 2. Tax on the transfer of immovable property 2. Primary and secondary school 3. Tax on motor vehicles 3. Health care 4. Local sales tax and/or tax on the sale of local products (or surcharge) 4. Social assistance and poverty alleviation 5. Tax on local businesses and services 5. Public order and civil protection 6. Tax on electricity consumption (surcharge) 6. Infrastructure and public services 7. Tax on nonmotorized vehicles 7. Environment protection 8. Tax on tourism, hotels, restaurants, and entertainment 8. Social, cultural, recreational expenditures 9. Tolls on roads, bridges, etc., within the limits of the local government 9. Local economic development 10.Charges for public works and public utilities such as waste collection, drainage, sewerage, and 10.Social housing water supply 11.Urban development 11.Charges for markets and rents for market stalls 12.Civil security 12.Charges for the use of bus stations and taxi parks 13.Transfer to sub-local government entities 13.Fees for approval of building plans and erection and re-erection of buildings 14.(subsidies, grants, equity, in-kind) 14.Fees for fairs, agricultural shows, industrial exhibitions, tournaments, and other public events 15.Loan repayment 15.Fees for licensing of businesses, professions, and vocations 16.Interest charges 16.Fees for other licenses or permits and penalties or fines for violations 17.Guarantees called (paid by the municipality) 17.Fees for advertisement 18.Fees on sales of animals in cattle markets 19.Fees for registration and certification of births, marriages, and deaths 20.Fees for education and health facilities established or maintained by the local government 21.Fees for other specific services rendered by the local government 22.Rent from land, buildings, equipment, machinery, and vehicles 23.Surpluses from local commercial enterprises 23 Source: Municipal Finances Handbook: Managing Local Expenditures, Morrell and Kopanyi 24.Interest on bank deposits or other funds The role of the government is to leverage the impacts of technology

Boundaries of the firm

Changes in industrial relations (capitalism without capital)

Demand for skills

The future of the informal economy

Scenarios of robots replacing workers

Expectations vs. perception vs. reality

24 STI for SDGs

E-health can serve some of Digital education creates the neediest patients in the classrooms at scale and world’s hardest to reach connects world-class places teachers to students who need them most

Digital payments and Digital financial services monitoring enable off-grid, provide new opportunities renewable energy sources for SME savings, credit, to be deployed years in and insurance thereby advance of traditional spurring expansion approaches

Source: International Finance Corporation STI for SDGs

26 World Bank strategy for MENA

End Extreme Poverty Boost Shared Prosperity

Meeting the Aspirations of MENA’s Youth - Reinventing the Economic Model Renewing the Social Resilience Regional Recovery and Contract to Shocks Cooperation Reconstruction

Rapid and Inclusive Job Creation for The Youth

Build Human Capital Education, skills, health, social protection, Maximize Finance for Digital Transformation youth and female inclusion Research and innovation, investment in high Development speed networks Role of state, unleash private sector, access to finance 27 The World Bank Group

1944 1960 1956 1988 1966 International Bank for International International Multilateral Investment International Center for the Reconstruction and Development Development Finance Guarantee Agency Settlement of Investment (IBRD) Association (IDA) Corporation (IFC) (MIGA) Disputes (ICSID)

lends to governments of middle-income and creditworthy low-income countries

provides interest-free loans, or credits, and grants to governments of the poorest countries

provides loans, equity, and advisory services to stimulate private sector investments in developing countries

provides political risk insurance and credit enhancement to investors and lenders to facilitate FDI in emerging economies

provides international facilities for conciliation and arbitration of investment disputes Thank You worldbankgroup.org/sdgs

Mahmoud-Mohieldin on