On the Sustainable Development Goals in the Arab World Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior VP, World Bank Group Looking back: MDG progress Comparing Arab Countries to Developing Countries Arab Countries 12 0 2 3 Poverty Extreme Developing Countries MDG 1.1 - MDG 71 11 7 2 27 27 Arab Countries 1 0 1 12 3 Under- MDG 1.9 MDG Developing Countries 35 8 4 13 52 33 nourishment Arab Countries 1 4 1 3 4 3 Primary Developing Countries MDG 2.1 - MDG 40 12 11 17 40 Completion Arab Countries 6 0 2 7 Developing Countries Education MDG 3.1 - MDG 67 10 7 11 28 25 Gender Parity Gender Arab Countries 5 1 3 3 5 Under-5 Mortality Developing Countries MDG 4.1 - MDG 38 18 16 37 34 25 Arab Countries 0 5 3 9 2 Infant Mortality Developing Countries MDG 4.2 - MDG 6 9 23 28 77 22 Arab Countries 1 0 1 4 11 0 Maternal Mortality Developing Countries MDG 5.1 - MDG 15 3 11 20 88 2 Arab Countries 6 0 1 2 7 0 Water Improved Developing Countries MDG 7.8 - MDG 67 5 2 12 40 2 Arab Countries 7 1 0 2 5 0 Improved Developing Countries Sanitation MDG 7.9 - MDG 36 7 7 14 58 8 Target Met Sufficient Progress (by 2015) Insufficient Progress Moderately Off Target Seriously Off Target Insufficient Data Global Megatrends Opportunities and Challenges Demographic Fragility and Urbanization transitions violence Market volatility Technological Climate change and commodity changes cycles Renewed debate Shifts in the about global economy globalization 3 The SDGs present a major opportunity for transformation MDGs (2000-2015) SDGs (2016-2030) Goals/ Targets/Indicators 8/21/60 17/169/~230 Priority Areas Human Development Holistic: Economic, Social, Environmental Scope Developing Countries Universal Global development agendas serve as a guide for countries to determine their national development path 4 How are Arab countries progressing on the SDGs? Progress on select SDGs, Arab world and the World 100% 88% 89% 90% 87% 87% 81% 80% 68% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 12% 11% 10% 0% Prevalence of undernourishment People using at least basic People using at least basic drinking Access to electricity (% of (% of population) sanitation services (% of water services (% of population) population) population) SDG 2 SDG 6 SDG 7 Arab World World 5 Leveraging the potential of disruptive changes requires a comprehensive policy framework Invest in resilience Invest in human (incl. social Invest in capital protection) infrastructure Enablers Finance Data Implementation Achieving the SDGs 6 Adapted from: WDR 2019 Changing Nature of Work, World Bank, 2018 Invest in human capital "Human capital" – the potential of individuals – is going to be the most important long-term investment any country can make for its people’s future, prosperity and quality of life The Human Capital Project Three main objectives: 1. Build demand for more and better investments in people 2. Help countries strengthen their human capital strategies and investments for rapid improvements in outcomes 3. Improve how we measure human capital Three main indicators, reflecting building blocks of human capital: 1. Survival – Will kids born today survive to school age? 2. School – How much school will they complete and how much will they learn? 3. Health – Will kids leave school in good health and be ready for further learning and/or work? 7 Invest in human capital Rank Economy Lower Value Upper Bound bound 47 Bahrain 0.65 0.67 0.68 49 United Arab 0.64 0.66 0.67 Emirates 54 Oman 0.61 0.62 0.63 60 Qatar 0.60 0.61 0.63 73 Saudi Arabia 0.57 0.58 0.60 77 Kuwait 0.56 0.58 0.59 79 Jordan 0.54 0.56 0.58 82 West Bank & Gaza 0.54 0.55 0.56 86 Lebanon 0.52 0.54 0.55 93 Algeria 0.51 0.52 0.53 96 Tunisia 0.50 0.51 0.52 98 Morocco 0.49 0.50 0.51 104 Egypt 0.47 0.49 0.50 129 Iraq 0.38 0.40 0.41 139 Sudan 0.37 0.38 0.39 145 Yemen 0.35 0.37 0.38 8 Invest in resilience • Broadly defined as the ability to manage the wide range of shocks and stresses which may occur. These are categorized as natural; technological; or socioeconomic • Examples of investments include: o Expansion of social protection coverage while giving priority to the poorest people o Strengthening of all aspects of climate and disaster resilient development, including coordinating institutions, risk identification and reduction, preparedness, financial and social 9 protection, and resilient reconstruction Source: WDR 2019 ; Building Resilience Report; and Investing in urban Resilience Report 1.5E+11 2.5E+11 3.5E+11 1E+11 2E+11 3E+11 4E+11 Investment need inc. inc. SDGs need Investment trends Current 2016 Source: Global Infrastructure Hub, 2018 Hub, Infrastructure Global Source: 2017 Outlook: Africa Infrastructure 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Investment need Investment 2023 2024 Invest ininfrastructure 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 1.3E+12 1.5E+12 1.7E+12 1.9E+12 2.1E+12 2.3E+12 Investment need inc. SDGs inc. need Investment trends Current 2016 2017 Outlook: Asia Infrastructure 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Investment need Investment 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 10 2029 2030 Invest in digital infrastructure In low income countries, only 12 percent of people use the internet, but usage is growing. Features of digital infrastructure in MENA 1. High prices, low speed: limited access to broadband internet 2. Good backbone networks, lack of investment in local access; monopolies in international access 3. Affordability constraints deepen the digital divide across regions and people 4. Highly concentrated markets 5. Challenges with storage capacity 6. Lack of competition in international and data communications 7. Outdated business model 8. Lack of investment in broadband Source: SDG Atlas 2018 11 The role of the government is to ensure a balance and the best use of finance for development 12 Finance will need to come from multiple sources Foreign Direct Investment ODA and FDI to the Arab World (net inflows as % of GDP) 1.2E+11 6 1E+11 5 8E+10 4 6E+10 3 4E+10 2 2E+10 1 0 0 Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$) 2008 2013 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 Arab World World Developing Countries Net official development assistance and official aid received (current US$) Financing sustainable development When a project is presented, you should ask: “Is there a sustainable private sector solution that limits public debt and contingent liabilities?” If the answer is... Promote such private sector solutions •The World Bank could play an important role in supporting the government to advance appropriate private sector solutions. i.e. though analytical support, technical assistance for YES relevant reforms and capacity building, project identification and preparation support, project structuring, and support to the government in negotiations with the private sector Ask whether its because of: • Policy or regulatory gaps or weaknesses? If so, provide WBG support for policy and NO regulatory reforms. • Risks? If so, assess the risks and see whether WBG instruments can address them. Source: World Bank, 2018 The role of the government is to ensure a sound financial sector Mobilize Savings and Allocate Investments Consumer/ Investor Financial Effective Regulations Financial Innovation Protection Literacy Legal framework to enhance trust, confidence in financial contracts and transactions 15 15 The SDGs are interlinked Data is critical to understanding those relationships Japan’s goals interlinked to SDG 1 16 Data availability is a universal challenge Seventy-eight of 169 SDG targets describe potentially assessable outcomes for Canada 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Quantified SDG target Canadian national target Proxy target Not able to assess Source: “Counting who gets Left Behind” Brookings report, 2018 17 Good Data Informs Implementation 90 Statistical Capacity Score (scale: 0-100) 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 South Asia East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean Europe & Central Asia Middle East & North Africa 18 The role of the government is to implement robust data systems Institutions Organizations that Data that Are Users Who Are Data Uses Based on Have • Open data • Budgetary • Up to date • Connected • Planning laws autonomy • Disaggregated • Data literate • Policy making • Rights to • Trained staff • Easy to manipulate • Diverse (e.g., • Monitoring privacy • Adequate and visualize • academics, CSOs, • Targeting • Accountabilit installations • Accessible in remote media, local and • Research y to users • Connected areas central • Advocacy • Broad databases • Georeferenced governments) • Lobbying outreach to • Early warning • Contestable • Citizen society systems • From integrated empowerment • Harmonized • International data sets data partnerships conventions Source: Data for Development: An Evaluation of World Bank Support for Data and Statistical Capacity, Independent Evaluation Group, World Bank, 2018 103 countries have presented VNRs to date during the High-Level Political Forum 8 countries presented more than once High-Level Political Forum UN mechanism for the follow up and review of SDG implementation Countries’ Most Frequently Identified Priority Areas* 1. Sequencing implementation of goals within context of national priorities 2. Working in partnership to determine national development strategy 3. Coordination within governments; across and within ministries 4. Securing enough financial resources and efficiently allocating them 5. Data availability and institutional capacity 6. Localization and implementation of the goals at the local level 7. Incorporating and mainstreaming gender 8. Integrating action on climate change * Based on SVPMM analysis The role of the government is to enhance localization of development U.K.