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December 26, 2013 December 26, 2013 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) KB Financial Group (105560/Buy/TP: W50,700) KOSPI 1,999.30 -2.29 -0.11 Earnings momentum and attractive valuation KOSPI 200 263.15 -0.43 -0.16 KOSDAQ 488.87 -2.21 -0.45 Economy & Strategy Update Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Spin-off/merger event of KOSPI 200 Volume Value KOSPI 215,248 3,164 Rebalancing of Hyundai Hysco and Hyundai Steel by KOSPI 200 index funds KOSPI 200 51,564 2,574 to be minimal KOSDAQ 270,439 1,042 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,179,612 KOSDAQ 116,853 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 494 514 -19 Institutional 1,340 706 635 Retail 1,298 1,911 -613 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 45 50 -5 Institutional 55 54 1 Retail 937 932 5 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,094 410 684 KOSDAQ 7 11 -4 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 405 394 83 KOSDAQ 407 494 96 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 1,408,000 -7,000 347 KODEX LEVERAGE 12,160 -55 246 KODEX 200 26,355 -40 208 Hynix 36,000 -750 135 NHN 714,000 -20,000 121 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Media Flex 3,235 225 26 Soribada 3,670 -50 22 TPC 6,700 -1,180 20 WAVE ELECTRO 15,950 1,600 20 Celltrion 38,050 -600 19 Note: As of December 26, 2013 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. KB Financial Group (105560 KS) Earnings momentum and attractive valuation 4Q net profit to reach W340.6bn (-20.2% QoQ; +139.6% YoY) For 4Q, we project KB Financial Group (KBFG) to post a net profit of W340.6bn (-20.2% Banks QoQ; +139.6% YoY), slightly lower than levels expected under normal conditions. However, stripping away one-off items, we project 4Q net profit to be relatively decent. Although lending growth typically slows modestly in the final quarter of each year, the Company Report pace of growth is estimated to have remained steady QoQ this time around. As such, December 26, 2013 KBFG is likely to surpass its annual lending growth target of 2-3%. We project net interest margin (NIM) to show a slight dip QoQ. However, the pace of decline should be slower than in the previous quarter, given that NIM dropped by 10bps QoQ during 3Q. (Maintain) Buy Despite continued lending growth, we project net interest income (NII) to decline marginally QoQ due to the aforementioned continued (albeit slowing) fall in NIM. In 4Q, Target Price (12M, W) 50,700 we believe that provisioning was spurred by KBFG’s efforts to tame its year-end NPL ratio level and the ongoing process of assessing risks related to SME loans. However, we Share Price (12/24/13, W) 40,950 think that these provisions have been largely offset by a provisioning write-back owing to Taihan Electric Wire’s debt/equity swap. As such, in light of KBFG’s high burden in 3Q, Expected Return 24% we estimate that provisions have fallen QoQ in 4Q. Earnings to normalize in 2014 OP (13F, Wbn) 2,020 In 2014, KBFG’s lending growth is expected to outpace Korea’s GDP growth. NIM is Consensus OP (13F, Wbn) 2,024 anticipated to stay at the 4Q13 level. Full-year NII is projected to decline YoY, but EPS Growth (13F, %) -21.2 quarterly figures are expected to improve steadily on a QoQ basis. SG&A expenses and Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 13.5 loan loss provisions are unlikely to increase significantly, leading to higher earnings P/E (13F, x) 11.8 stability. On the back of normalizing earnings, the bank’s net profit is forecast to jump Market P/E (13F, x) 11.1 30% YoY. KOSPI 2,001.59 Higher operating leverage to boost top-line growth Market Cap (Wbn) 15,821 We reiterate our Buy call on KBFG and target price of W50,700, which was derived by Shares Outstanding (mn) 386 applying a target P/B of 0.7x 2014F earnings. Our valuation is based on a 2014F ROE of Free Float (%) 90.8 6.7%, a 2015F ROE of 7.3%, and cost of equity (COE) of 9.6%. Our Buy recommendation Foreign Ownership (%) 63.8 is premised on the following: Beta (12M) 0.95 52-Week Low (W) 31,100 1) NIM contraction is decelerating, which will likely allow KBFG to increase its operating 52-Week High (W) 44,250 leverage. Given its robust interest-earning assets and high NIM (relative to the levels of other financial holding companies), the company should enjoy rapid top-line (%) 1M 6M 12M improvement next year. Absolute 2.5 20.4 8.3 Relative 2.7 9.2 7.3 2) The company’s earnings volatility seems relatively low, given its modest exposure to ailing large corporations. Share price 125 KOSPI 120 3) The stock remains undervalued, trading at an end-2014F P/B of 0.6x. In light of our 115 positive outlooks for the company’s 2014 earnings and the economy at large, we believe 110 105 the stock’s P/B could comfortably rise to 0.7-0.8x. 100 95 90 12/12 4/13 8/13 12/13 FY (Dec.) 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Total OP (Wbn) 7,664 8,843 7,904 7,523 7,643 8,008 PPOP (Wbn) 3,334 4,911 4,019 3,550 3,648 3,873 Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Net OP (Wbn) 193 3,398 2,411 2,020 2,315 2,645 Banks Pretax NP (Wbn) 19 3,261 2,261 1,896 2,308 2,638 NP (Wbn) 88 2,373 1,703 1,342 1,750 2,000 Yong-uk Ku EPS (W) 518 6,142 4,408 3,474 4,529 5,176 +822-768-4494 BPS (W) 52,316 59,319 63,624 66,464 68,697 72,767 [email protected] P/E (x) 115.7 5.9 8.6 11.8 9.0 7.9 Joong-han Kim P/B (x) 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 +822-768-4152 ROE (%) 1.1 11.5 7.2 5.3 6.7 7.3 [email protected] ROA (%) 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Spin-off/merger event of KOSPI 200 Rebalancing of Hyundai Hysco and Hyundai Steel by KOSPI 200 index funds to be minimal AI Analysis Hyundai Hysco to enter lock-up starting Dec. 27, ahead of the spin-off of CRC unit December 26, 2013 Related rebalancing of equity baskets for KOSPI 200 index funds likely to be minimal Post merger, the weight of Hyundai Steel (within KOSPI 200) will increase by 0.052%p to lift the stock’s rank to 23rd based on free float market cap Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. By contrast, Hyundai Hysco’s free float ratio could be adjusted down by KRX to 40%, following the exercise of appraisal rights of dissenting shareholders Hyundai Hysco’s rank likely to fall to 130th from 71st Young-Sung Kim +822-768-4120 [email protected] Hyundai Hysco shares to enter lock-up on December 27th On October 17th, Hyundai Hysco and Hyundai Steel announced that Hyundai Hysco would spin off the cold-rolled coil (CRC) unit, and merge it with Hyundai Steel. As this proposal was approved by both companies’ shareholders, shares of Hyundai Hysco will enter lock-up starting December 27th, ahead of the spin-off, and resume trading on January 24th, 2014. Table 1. Spin-off schedule of Hyundai Hysco’s CRC unit, which will merge with Hyundai Steel Spin-off by Hyundai Hysco Merger with Hyundai Steel Hyundai Hysco to spin off CRC unit Entity to be spun off and merged CRC unit to merge with Hyundai Steel Lock-up period Dec. 27, 2013 ~ Jan. 23, 2014 - Spin-off/merger ratio 0.2843884 : 0.7156116 0.5442446 : 1 Resumption of trading Jan.
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