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South East Wales Transport Model Mode-Destination Model Estimation

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South East Wales Transport Model Mode-Destination Model Estimation EUROPE South East Wales Transport Model Mode-destination model estimation James Fox, Bhanu Patruni For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1927z2 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., and Cambridge, UK © Copyright 2018 Welsh Government R® is a registered trademark. RAND Europe is a not-for-profit organisation whose mission is to help improve policy and decision making through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the Welsh Government. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org www.rand.org/randeurope Preface This report has been produced for Llywodraeth Cymru / the Welsh Government. It documents the development of travel demand models for the South East Wales transport model. Mode-destinations models have been estimated for eight home-based tour purposes and for non-home-based tours and detours. While the primary audience for the document is the Welsh Government, it may be of wider interest for transport researchers and transport planners involved in transport demand forecasting and strategic planning. RAND Europe is an independent not-for-profit policy research organisation that serves the public interest by improving policymaking and informing public debate. Our clients are European governments, institutions and companies with a need for rigorous, impartial, multidisciplinary analysis. This report has been peer-reviewed in accordance with RAND’s quality assurance standards (see http://www.rand.org/about/standards/) and therefore may be represented as a RAND Europe product. Two other related reports have been produced. The first documents the development of travel frequency models, and the second covers the implementation of the variable demand model components and the ‘pivoting’ process that together are used to forecast changes in transport demand across the South East Wales region. For more information about RAND Europe or this document, please contact: James Fox RAND Europe Westbrook Centre Milton Road Cambridge CB4 1YG United Kingdom Tel. +44 (1223) 353 329 [email protected] iii Table of contents Preface ..................................................................................................................................................... iii Table of contents ....................................................................................................................................... v Figures .................................................................................................................................................... vii Tables ...................................................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................. xi Abbreviations ......................................................................................................................................... xiii 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 2. Modelling assumptions ......................................................................................................... 3 2.1. Tour-based approach .................................................................................................................... 3 2.2. Base year ...................................................................................................................................... 7 2.3. Purposes ....................................................................................................................................... 7 2.4. Modes .......................................................................................................................................... 8 2.5. Time periods ................................................................................................................................ 8 2.6. Zoning ......................................................................................................................................... 9 3. Spatial transfer approach .................................................................................................... 11 3.1. Why use spatial transfer? ............................................................................................................ 11 3.2. Methodological approach ........................................................................................................... 12 4. Input data .......................................................................................................................... 17 4.1. Choice data ................................................................................................................................ 17 4.2. Cost data .................................................................................................................................... 21 4.3. Public transport .......................................................................................................................... 23 4.4. Attraction data ........................................................................................................................... 23 4.5. Income data ............................................................................................................................... 25 5. Model specification ............................................................................................................ 27 5.1. Treatment of destinations ........................................................................................................... 27 5.2. Mode and time period alternatives ............................................................................................. 28 v 5.3. Treatment of cost ....................................................................................................................... 32 5.4. Socio-economic terms ................................................................................................................ 35 5.5. Structural tests ............................................................................................................................ 37 6. Model results ..................................................................................................................... 39 6.1. The West Midlands models ........................................................................................................ 39 6.2. Transfer results ........................................................................................................................... 41 6.3. Model validation ........................................................................................................................ 43 7. Summary and recommendations ......................................................................................... 53 References ............................................................................................................................................... 55 Appendix A: Tour building analysis ...................................................................................... 57 Building home-based tours ............................................................................................................... 57 Home-based tour analysis ................................................................................................................. 60 Analysis of NHB travel ..................................................................................................................... 64 Appendix B: Ward coding in PTP survey .................................................................................. 71 Appendix C: Public transport level of service data ..................................................................... 75 Generalised cost formulation ............................................................................................................ 75 Appendix D: West Midlands model parameters ......................................................................... 77 Appendix E: Transfer model parameters .................................................................................... 91 Figures Figure 1. Tour example ............................................................................................................................ 4 Figure 2. PD-based tour example ............................................................................................................. 6 Figure 3. NHB detour example ................................................................................................................ 6 Figure 4. Extent of detailed and fully modelled areas ................................................................................ 9 Figure 5. Destination choice structure .................................................................................................... 27 vii Tables Table 1. Summary of SEWTM zone system ............................................................................................
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