USAID/BURMA MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT August 2019

Contract Number: 72048218C00004 Myanmar Analytical Activity

Acknowledgement

This report has been written by Kimetrica LLC (www.kimetrica.com) and Mekong Economics (www.mekongeconomics.com) as part of the Myanmar Analytical Activity, and is therefore the exclusive property of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Melissa Earl (Kimetrica) is the author of this report and reachable at [email protected] or at Kimetrica LLC, 80 Garden Center, Suite A-368, Broomfield, CO 80020. The author’s views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

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AUGUST 2019 AT A GLANCE

Brotherhood Alliance Carries Out New Attacks. On August 15, the newly- proclaimed Brotherhood Alliance – the Arakan Army (AA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDA) and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) – carried out a series of attacks, including some that were coordinated simultaneous, in five locations in Mandalay Region and northern Shan State. (Page 2)

Attacks by Brotherhood Alliance Damage Infrastructure and Stall Border Trade. The Brotherhood Alliance’s attacks damaged key infrastructure and stalled border trade between Myanmar and China, negatively impacting the Myanmar economy and threatening progress of China-Myanmar Economic Corridor projects (Page 4).

Second Round of Rohingya Repatriation Fails. Nearly a year after the first attempt failed, the governments of Myanmar and Bangladesh tried and failed once more to repatriate Rohingya refugees living in Bangladesh due to their continued refusal to return while conditions remain unsafe in Myanmar (Page 16).

UN Fact Finding Mission Calls for Sanctions on Tatmadaw-Owned Businesses. The UN’s extensive report documents the Tatmadaw’s network of businesses and called for international sanctions on any company connected to the Tatmadaw (Page 7).

Union Parliament Approves Report on Constitutional Reform. The Union Parliament formally approved the Charter Amendment Committee’s report on proposed constitutional reforms. The proposed reforms continue to be debated by members of parliament (Page 8).

2019 Union Tax Bill Pardons Tax Evaders and High Earners. A tax amnesty for previously undisclosed income by higher earners and tax evaders was included in the 2019 Union Tax Bill despite criticism that the bill is unfair and will not spur economic growth (Page 11).

Government Battles Extreme Buddhist Nationalism Ahead of Election. The Government declared the Ma Ba Tha an illegal organization, a sign that the Government is making some effort to fight extreme Buddhist nationalism ahead of the 2020 general election (Page 17).

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CONFLICT SHAN STATE

BROTHERHOOD ALLIANCE ● Three ethnic armed organizations On August 15, the newly-proclaimed (EAOs) of the Northern Alliance Brotherhood Alliance – the AA, MNDAA, and carried out joint attacks in Mandalay TNLA – carried out a series of attacks on Region and Shan State, causing public infrastructure and the Defense Services significant damage to infrastructure. Technical Academy, including coordinated ● Fighting between Shan State Progress simultaneous attacks, in five locations in Party-North (SSPP) and the Tatmadaw Mandalay Region and Northern Shan State.i led to civilian casualties and injuries, Following the attacks, the Brotherhood causing hundreds of villagers to flee. Alliance and Tatmadaw exchanged fire and ● Heavy conflict continues in Rakhine launched artillery attacks in Shan State, State between the AA and the particularly Hseni, Kutkai and Lashio Tatmadaw, with tens of civilians injured townships, killing about 50 Tatmadaw soldiers.ii and killed, and thousands trapped in Four civilians were killed and 14 injured in the Minbya Township. crossfire, as well as 500 people from Nant Paung village, Lashio Township, forced to flee

following fighting near the village.iii Figure 1 maps conflict events in Myanmar between June 23 and July 20, 2019 as reported Details of the Brotherhood Alliance attacks are by the Armed Conflict and Location Event detailed in Figure 2. The attacks resulted in Data (ACLED) project. hundreds of millions of kyat in damage to vital transport infrastructure, including the Gote Twin Bridge in Nawngcho Township. Since the

Figure 1. Conflict Hot Spot Map (July 20 – August 31, 2019) KIMETRICA LLC, DATA SOURCE: ACLED USAID.GOV AUGUST 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 2

Figure 2. Brotherhood Alliance Attack Map August 2019 KIMETRICA LLC, DATA SOURCE: ACLED attacks started, over 3,000 civilians have fled the transport infrastructure is restored.ix The their homes to internally displaced persons disruption in trade has resulted in significant (IDP) camps in Kutkai and Lashio Townships, price increases and businesses are struggling and over 50 international tourists were owing to decreased market activity.x Border evacuated to Yangon and Mandalay regions.iv In trade in rice, beans, pulses and other crops has the week after the attacks, the Tatmadaw stalled as has tourism in Pyin Oo Lwin and the detained two teachers from Pyin Oo Lwin for garment industry in Myanmar which relies on their alleged involvement, which follows the raw materials imported from China.xi Tatmadaw’s well-documented pattern of detaining civilians in Rakhine following fighting The Government condemned the with the AA.v Brotherhood Alliance’s “terrorist acts," stating they will have negative consequences for the The attacks had serious economic peace process, although none of the repercussions, vastly reducing China-Myanmar Brotherhood Alliance members are signatories cross-border trade through the Muse and of the National Ceasefire Agreement and are Chinshwehaw town gates.vi The total trade not participating in the peace process.xii The value per day at the Muse border trade zone Tatmadaw claimed the attacks were in declined from $5 million to less than $700,000, retaliation for its seizure of MMK 16 billion while trade at Chinshwehaw, which totaled ($10.1 million) worth of methamphetamines in two to three million dollars per day, ceased Kutkai, Shan State, and MMK 5 billion ($3.2 altogether.vii million) worth of arms and drugs in Rathedaung, Rakhine State, on July 25 and Efforts are being made to repair the damage August 8, respectively.xiii The Brotherhood and resume trade. A temporary bridge has Alliance countered that it took action because already been constructed to replace the the Tatmadaw ignored the Alliance’s numerous severely damaged Gote Twin Bridge.viii warnings to stop attacking the AA.xiv Continued unrest in the area makes it unlikely that trade will return to previous levels once

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The joint attacks by the AA, TNLA and IMPLICATIONS FOR THE BELT AND MNDAA signify a shift from a defensive to an ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI) offensive strategy against the Tatmadaw. The attacks and subsequent trade cutoff could According to a foreign advisor on pro- have significant implications on the progression democracy and human rights movements in of the BRI in Shan State. Political analyst Maung Myanmar, the change reflects these EAOs’ Maung Soe argues that the recent fighting realization that defensive tactics alone are not creates challenges for the rollout of the enough to push back the Tatmadaw. Chinese Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), as the Muse-Mandalay railway is Additionally, the formation of the Brotherhood planned to run through areas controlled by Alliance demonstrates the fluidity of EAOs’ EAOs where fighting is taking place.xvii alliances and military potential when they combine military capacity, and is a reminder of There is no evidence that EAOs are the potential for united counterattacks from deliberately targeting Chinese infrastructure other EAOs. The Tatmadaw now potentially projects. The Brotherhood Alliance maintains faces conflicts on three fronts, in north that its recent attacks were “necessary new (Kachin), western (Rakhine), and eastern (Shan counter-offensives” to “reduce military and Karen) Myanmar.xv pressure” in their regions, and are not deliberately targeting China’s projects or trade In contrast, sources close to the Karen routes in Myanmar.xviii Nonetheless, it is National Liberation Army (KNLA) suggest, that possible that China will continue to expand its the odds that Karen forces in southeastern engagement on peace issues in Myanmar and Myanmar will assume offensive action against the peace process to protect the rollout of the the Tatmadaw are small. According to a former CMEC. At a press conference in Beijing, China KNLA company commander, the official Karen “strongly condemned” the EAO attacks for National Union (KNU) position is to work with causing casualties and threatening peace and the Government through peace negotiations stability in Shan State and, shortly after the and avoid being seen as aiding EAOs engaged in attacks, met with the TNLA, AA and NMDAA active combat. A foreign military trainer in China’s Yunnan Province to urge them to working with the KNLA further suggested that stop fighting and calling the fighting Karen leaders are too “blinded by the Burmese “unacceptable.”xix [Government] offers and financial incentives” to take advantage of the “window of TA’ANG NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY opportunity” presented by the emergence of In addition to joining ranks with other EAOs as the Brotherhood Alliance. part of the Brotherhood Alliance, the TNLA has also fought with the Tatmadaw separately, It is likely that fighting in conflict areas will in Kutkai and Lashio townships. In one such further intensify as the Tatmadaw retaliates incident, a group of relief workers from the against the Brotherhood Alliance. The Lashio-based Social Service Association were Tatmadaw already announced that it presented caught in crossfire near Lashio on their way to to the President’s office plans for its response help villagers trapped by fighting, killing one and xvi to the EAOs’ recent joint attacks. wounding four other relief workers.xx Nonetheless, further collaborative actions or signs of alliance-building by the EAOs should be The TNLA also fought the Restoration Council monitored in the coming months. of Shan State (RCSS) in Nawnghkio Township, Shan State, on August 15. Fighting broke out between the two forces in July 2019 after

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several months of peace. It remains to be seen whether sporadic violence between the two This month’s fighting also had significant impact armies will continue, or whether the two will on civilians, with over 10 injured and one killed cease fighting one another and focus their in crossfire. Conflict that started in late July in efforts on fighting the Tatmadaw. The TNLA Minbya Township led to the displacement of and the RCSS have been fighting intermittently 5,000 civilians, who took shelter in IDP since 2015, so the latter is unlikely. camps.xxv The Tatmadaw is currently not allowing people to leave approximately 30 SHAN STATE PROGRESS PARTY - NORTH villages, keeping at least 3,000 trapped in (SSPP) southeast Minbya.xxvi The Tatmadaw also In addition to the Brotherhood Alliance attacks blocked access of humanitarian aid and in Shan state, on August 6, fighting took place community leaders, including members of between the SSPP and the Tatmadaw in parliament and Buddhist monks, to the Tangyan Township, with around 300 villagers besieged villages.xxvii forced to flee and take refuge in monasteries in Tangyan Town.xxi The SSPP claims the clashes The Tatmadaw continues to detain Rakhine were a result of its drug eradication initiative. civilians for alleged ties to the AA. Ten people However, the SSPP was accused by local in Ponnagyun, including two teenagers, were people and the Tatmadaw of using its alleged detained and interrogated on July 27; six were drug eradication program to recruit new released on bail, and four were expected to members and obtain hostage payments, which appear in court to be questioned later this the SSPP denies.xxii month. Details of the court proceedings, or even if the stated court date occurred, have ARAKAN ARMY not been released.xxviii

RAKHINE STATE On August 8, the Tatmadaw interrogated Conflict between the AA and the Tatmadaw villagers in Kyauk Yan village, in Buthidaung this month in Rakhine State was concentrated Township; three days later, a village in Minbya township. Additionally, fighting also administrator, a teacher, and three other occurred in Buthidaung, Kyauktaw, Mrauk-U civilians were arrested under the Counter- and Rathedaung townships, and to a lesser Terrorism law.xxix Villagers reported that degree in Minbya, Myebon and Ponnagyun during the three days of interrogation, xxiii townships. According to data produced by Tatmadaw soldiers confiscated their phones the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data and confined the villagers to the village (ACLED) project, the Tatmadaw suffered monastery. Many fled the village after the more than 100 casualties this month, whereas incident. A primary school teacher was also the AA lost around 15 soldiers. Among the arrested and detained in Buthidaung on his way most significant attacks this month were an AA to school in early August and was charged ambush on a four-vehicle police convoy near under the Counter-Terrorism law by the the border between Kyauktaw and Ponnagyun Tatmadaw, though the Tatmadaw did not townships, which killed one policeman and provide a reason for the charges.xxx injured five others on August 20, a battle between the Tatmadaw and AA near Dai Tha UPDATE: SINGAPORE DETAINEES Village, Minbya Township, that resulted in the On August 9, in a Yangon court, five men and deaths of 50 Tatmadaw and three AA soldiers one woman who were deported from on August 22, and an AA attack on a Tatmadaw Singapore last month, as well as two others, frontline base on August 28 that killed 30 were formally charged under the Counter- Tatmadaw soldiers.xxiv

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Terrorism law for funding the AA.xxxi The accusations and denied ever detaining any Chin deportees maintained that they were not civilians.xxxvi involved with the AA, and that they were merely raising funds for Rakhine IDPs under In contrast, the AA released dozens of captives the Arakan Association. Upon their arrest in who were abducted from King-talin village in Myanmar, the six were held incommunicado February. On July 31, the AA released the for two weeks; the court hearing was the first captives in Ohn-thee-wa Village in southern time the detainees saw their families and Paletwa township, following “confidential defense lawyer since their arrest.xxxii One more negotiations.”xxxvii While the AA claims to have suspect is under investigation, and two more rescued the villagers from an active conflict are on the run. zone in February and that they were free to leave at any time, the villagers said they were CHIN STATE captives taken by force. Of the 54 villagers The Tatmadaw and AA fought in Paletwa initially captured, 14 escaped between April Township, Chin State, this month, with 11 and June.xxxviii incidents of conflict reported between August 1 and August 15. The fighting caused about 200 Escapees reported that they had been forced people to flee Bawngwa village, which borders to do domestic and agricultural work at the AA Paletwa Township and Rakhine State, following camp, and that one female detainee had died in fighting nearby on August 5.xxxiii AA custody, as she fell ill and no medicine was available.xxxix According to one report, On August 9, a 20-year-old was abducted in escapees also said they were used as human Moe Thit village after AA troops inspected his shields by AA soldiers when the Tatmadaw and several other boats sailing to the village conducted aerial attacks.xl from Mrauk-U town.xxxiv The incident brings the number of people missing due to the Figure 3 shows all the conflict actors and the conflict in Paletwa Township to eight, number of violent interactions from June 23 to according to a Chin Human Rights July 20, 2019, as reported by ACLED. Organization’s statement released on August 12.xxxv The AA spoke out against the

Figure 3. Conflict Actors (July 20 – August 31, 2019) KIMETRICA LLC, DATA SOURCE: ACLED

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POLITICS ASEAN member states to impose financial sanctions against any military-backed

company.xlii At the time of writing, only one ● The UN Fact-Finding Mission on international company, a Belgian satellite firm Myanmar called for sanctions on called Newtec, ceased operations in Myanmar Tatmadaw-owned businesses followed in response to the report.xliii by a report of its extensive network of business interests. The Myanmar Government rejected the ● Parliament formally approved the findings of the report and the Mission’s Charter Amendment Committee’s legitimacy, repeating its position that the UN report on proposed constitutional Human Rights Council went beyond its reforms, paving the way for mandate and contravened international law by parliamentary legislation. setting up an investigation into alleged human ● Myanmar and India strengthened rights violations in Rakhine.xliv The Foreign military cooperation by signing a Ministry also claimed that the report would do memorandum of understanding (MoU) more harm than good by hurting ordinary during Commander-in-Chief Min Aung people in Myanmar and making a peaceful Hlaing’s official visit to India. resolution in Rakhine less likely. ● With the dissolution of its high-level joint negotiating team, the United The report prompted strong criticism from the Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) business community in Myanmar. During an announced a temporary suspension of interview with Mekong Economics some peace process activities. researchers, an informant who works extensively with local businesses in Yangon THE UN FACT-FINDING MISSION criticized the assumptions within the report REPORTS and questioned its methodology. Additionally, the source questioned the allegation that The UN Fact-Finding Mission in Myanmar income generated by the Tatmadaw’s business released two reports this month. The first network went directly to its armed operations, described the Tatmadaw’s extensive business arguing that the revenue more likely network in Myanmar while the second, contributed to other financial commitments, explored the impact of conflict on sexual and such as the Tatmadaw’s pension fund. gender-based violence. Preliminary analysis of social media comments THE TATMADAW AND THE ECONOMY On August 5, the UN Fact-Finding Mission by Bindez Insights indicates that the public is released a report detailing the Tatmadaw’s largely uninterested in the report as there has extensive control over the economy and urged been little mention of it beyond what national sanctions against Tatmadaw-owned businesses. news sources published. The 111-page report called for tougher punishments on military-backed businesses and Despite criticism of its logic and methodology lambasted foreign companies with links to the and the Myanmar public’s apparent lack of Tatmadaw, arguing that military-backed interest, the UN report nonetheless increases enterprises facilitated large-scale human rights the international spotlight on the Tatmadaw at abuses in Rakhine, Shan, and Kachin states.xli a time when it is under increased scrutiny for its current operations in Rakhine and Shan Following the release of the report, ASEAN states. Parliamentarians for Human Rights called for

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IMPACT OF CONFLICT ON SEXUAL AND the work of the committee rather than put GENDER-BASED VIOLENCE forward as a separate bill to Parliament.xlviii The UN Fact Finding Mission in Myanmar Further debate on the constitutional released a report on sexual and gender-based amendment process is expected to take place violence in Myanmar this month, where “the in the coming weeks. Mission verified cases of women, men and girls being subjected to abduction, rape, including THE TATMADAW AND FOREIGN gang rape, sexual torture, sexual slavery and RELATIONS other forms of sexual and gender-based In late July and early August, Tatmadaw’s violence in Kachin and Shan States.” The report Commander-in-Chief, Min Aung Hlaing, followed up on the Fact-Finding Mission’s 2018 conducted an official nine-day visit to India, report on the Rohingya, which found that culminating in an MoU on defense cooperation sexual violence was a common tactic used signed by Min Aung Hlaing and India’s Union against the Rohingya during the Tatmadaw’s Minister of State for Defense, Shripad Yesso “clearance operations.” The report argues that Naik. The MoU aims to strengthen the capacity conflict in Myanmar disproportionately impacts of Myanmar’s military through joint training ethnic women and that the Government does exercises and coordination of surveillance.xlix not have the political will to address the sexual India also offered additional military equipment and gender-based violence committed by the to the Tatmadaw, including a submarine to Tatmadaw. In the report’s recommendations, boost Myanmar’s naval capacities.l The MoU the Fact-Finding Mission stresses the need for and the offer of military equipment is an “accountability, rehabilitation and redress for indication that the Myanmar military wants to victims of sexual and gender-based violence.”xlv move away from its sole reliance on China.

CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM The visit to India showcases the continued role On August 9, the Union Parliament formally of Min Aung Hlaing in diplomatic and political approved the Charter Amendment affairs, and the Tatmadaw’s continued influence Committee’s report on constitutional reform, on Myanmar’s foreign relations. On August 22, which contains 4,000 recommendations for Min Aung Hlaing also welcomed the new changes. Sixty-six percent of parliamentary Chinese Ambassador, Chen Hai, for an official representatives voted in favor. The vote gives meeting in Naypyidaw.li a formal mandate to the committee to draft a bill, which will then be put to Parliament.xlvi PEACE PROCESS

The United Nationalities Federal Council The proposed amendments continue to be the (UNFC), a group of EAOs pushing for a subject of parliamentary debate. Chances that guarantee of federalism before agreeing to sign a bill diminishing the military’s influence over the National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), political affairs will be approved are slim as the announced the dissolution of its high-level joint Tatmadaw reaffirmed its opposition to the negotiating team, and the temporary constitutional amendment process. suspension of some activities in Chiang Mai

after a meeting held on August 1 and 2 in Military MPs have also been uncooperative, Chiang Mai, citing internal differences between often withdrawing from debates on the its members.lii report.xlvii They were against the bill committee’s suggestion that the Union The internal differences between the EAOs Solidarity and Development Party’s proposed have seemingly widened in the recent past, amendment to Article 261 be included under

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resulting in the EAOs individually continuing On August 9, there was speculation that the negotiations with the Government, as opposed KNU would rejoin peace talks after a to the high-level joint negotiation team where temporary withdrawal in November 2018 progress stagnated. The Karenni National following a series of informal meetings with the Progressive Party have already been increasing Government.liii However, a KNU bilateral negotiations on both the Union and representative instead stressed that while the State levels. Key differences between the KNU will attend the next Peace Process members are visible in the organizations’ Steering Team meeting, it has not committed actions such as the Lahu Democratic Union to rejoining further peace talks. and New Mon State Party signing the NCA in 2018, the addition of the SSPP into the The August meetings between peace process Northern Alliance, and the marginal size of the stakeholders are outlined below: Arakan National Council.

Table 1: Peace Process Stakeholder Meetings in August MEETINGS THIS MONTH

DATE WHO WHERE MAJOR OUTCOMES

8/1/19 The KIO and senior KIO headquarters in ● No agreements reached during ‘goodwill visit’ Chinese officials from Laiza ● Discussions on regional stability and drug eradication Yunnan province cooperationliv

8/7/19 NRPC and the Not known ● No progress on peace talks despite impending expiration of Northern Alliance unilateral ceasefire ● Negotiations between Northern Alliance and Government over the venue for talks on bilateral ceasefire ongoinglv

8/19/19 NRPC and EAO Chiang Mai, Thailand ● Informal meeting to discuss progress on peace process signatories of NCA ● Fourth meeting of the 21st Century Panglong Conference proposed to be held in late 2019, early 2020lvi

8/20/19 NRPC, the RCSS and Chiang Mai, Thailand ● Separate meetings with the RCSS and the KNU the KNU ● Discussions held on NCA implementation ● Government clarified four proposals to overcome stalled peace talks ● Meetings produced “good results” according to representativeslvii

8/21/19 - PPST Chiang Mai, Thailand ● Formal peace negotiations between the PPST and the 8/25/19 government will recommence on a step-by-step basis ● PPST negotiating team to meet with NRPC representatives from early September onwardslviii

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CORRUPTION WATCH ECONOMY Myanmar is set to join the International Anti- Corruption Academy with the Union ● Planned hydropower project on the Parliament’s approval on August 5, following Tanintharyi River likely to incur high President Win Myint’s proposal to join. social costs without bringing significant Seventy-four countries are currently members electrification to Myanmar. of the body, which aims to boost the capacity ● A tax amnesty of undisclosed income of anti-corruption divisions through training, for higher earners and tax avoiders is technical assistance and international sharing of included in the 2019 Union Tax Bill, but anti-corruption measures.lix is unlikely to bring purported economic benefits. Lawmakers hope that by joining the Academy, ● Cooperation with China on Burmese the Government will strengthen Myanmar’s infrastructure investment is progressing Anti-Corruption Commission, which has been in an administrative capacity but attacks criticized for being under-resourced and by EAOs on trading posts may damage lacking capacity.lx The decision comes amid the partnership. reports that State Counsellor Aung San Suu ● Myanmar launched a satellite Kyi has grown increasingly frustrated with communications system, hugely rampant government corruption and is seeking increasing potential for broadband to show the NLD’s readiness to combat the connectivity in rural areas and ending issue ahead of the 2020 general election.lxi The the high long-term annual cost of reports coincide with the NLD’s leasing satellites. announcement that a number of party officials ● Rice prices remained remarkably stable were suspended for unspecified infractions, over the last three months while fuel including officials involved in the Tanintharyi prices fell modestly and the kyat Chief Minister corruption case.lxii depreciated against the dollar.

The corruption allegations generated ample HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATIONS discussions within the comments on the news CONDEMN DAM PLANS ON article about the corruption. According to a TANINTHARYI RIVER social media sentiment analysis conducted in July by Bindez Insights, many social media users In August, the human rights organizations linked the corruption cases to the ongoing Candle Light, Southern Youth, and Tarkapaw constitutional reform, questioning if the Youth Group released a report titled “Blocking current Government is capable of reform, a Bloodline,” strongly criticizing developers of given its ineptness and corrupt nature. a large dam at Moh Ro village for lack of dialogue with locals and the project’s negative A senior researcher for a governance-related impacts, like displacement and loss of NGO in Myanmar told Mekong Economics that livelihoods. The report argues that no further although the current government appears consultations have been carried out with local sincere in its efforts to clamp down on Karen residents since those conducted by corruption, it continues at all levels of Thai-owned Greater Mekong Sub-Region government. The researcher predicted that it Power Public Company (GMS) in February would take many years of institutional change 2017. However, by May 2019, a total of 18 to reduce corruption in the country. MoUs had been signed with various companies for dams on the Tanintharyi River. Little public

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information about their size, location or impact revenue.lxviii The cheap renewable power has been released.lxiii generated from the dam would mostly be exported, however, and a significant portion of The report also argues that the planned the project’s profits would leave the domestic hydroelectricity project will displace 7,000 economy because the project is led by a Thai ethnic Karen, removing them from their company, leaving Myanmar with the social sources of water and land, and disconnecting costs of 7,000 displaced ethnic Karen, while them from their ancestral history.lxiv The not helping electricity-poor Tanintharyi.lxix director of Candle Light added that the river- dependent livelihoods of a further 23,000 An NLD spokesperson said that the people living downstream of the proposed dam Government is currently consulting with ethnic would also be severely affected.lxv Karen villagers and assessing whether to continue with the project.lxx Indigenous communities and civil society groups also released a report titled Beyond the TAX AMNESTY FOR HIGHER EARNERS River, which highlights the Karen communities’ IN UNION TAX BILL unique indigenous knowledge of the A tax amnesty for previously undisclosed Tanintharyi River’s biodiversity, their role in income – earned income that has not been preserving it, and the damage a hydropower declared to tax authorities – was submitted to project would cause.lxvi The International the national legislature as part of the 2019 Finance Corporation cautions that a perceived Union Tax Bill. The tax rate for disclosed threat to local resources risks triggering armed income will remain the same, at 5 percent for conflict between the Tatmadaw and the KNU, those with an annual income between MMK leading to agricultural economic losses and two million ($1,300) and MMK five million unemployment for an indefinite length of ($3,270), and progressively higher rates as time.lxvii incomes get higher, but capped at 25 percent

for MMK 30 million ($19,600) and above. For According to the Government’s 2015 Energy undisclosed income, the proposed income tax Master Plan, the 1,040 megawatt dam offers reduction is as follows: Myanmar a safer energy future and promotes development through employment and export

Table 2: Undisclosed Income Tax Reduction Proposed Tax Rate Income Bracket (MMK) Income Bracket ($)

3% < 100 million < 65,479

5% 100 - 300 million 65,479 - 196,436

10% 300 million - 3 billion 196,436 - 1,964,355

30% > 3 billion > 1,964,355

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According to the Ministry of Planning and business community agreed the tax amnesty Finance, the amnesty is intended to free up should only take place once.lxxv The lobbying private capital for investment and private was successful, and the tax amnesty is included sector consumption to stimulate the economy. in the 2019 Union Tax Bill. Previous amnesty rate reductions were implemented annually from 2007 to 2012, and It is doubtful, however, that the purported again in 2015. economic benefits promoted by the pro- amnesty lobby will materialize should the Local entrepreneurs speaking to the Myanmar amnesty pass parliament. The frequency of Times welcomed the amnesty, saying tax rates amnesties in the last decade – this will be the have strained economic growth.lxxi The Union seventh in ten years – means that business and of Myanmar Chambers of Commerce and higher earners will expect more in the future Industry also praised the tax amnesty, arguing and markets will therefore not see a one-off that the Government should adjust its budget leap in demand and consumption. This position by reducing expenditure rather than shifting was argued by Sean Turnell, special economic the burden to lower-income earners, given advisor to Aung San Suu Kyi, during last year’s that at $4.80 a day, the minimum wage in parliamentary debate on an amnesty.lxxvi Myanmar is one of the lowest in the region.lxxii Increasing disposable income of higher-income Previous attempts to address undisclosed individuals and augmenting corporate profits incomes were criticized domestically and are not the most efficient method to increase internationally for being unfair, with a bill that growth and private consumption in the offered a tax rate as low as 5 percent on country’s current economy. Lower income undeclared income, skewed against top individuals will spend additional income on earners who had declared their income and consumer goods more readily than higher paid a rate of 25 percent on it. The inclusion of income individuals, who are more likely to save the amnesty will thus have significantly much of their additional income, often in dissuaded higher earners from following the foreign banks, causing potential investment tax law. Top income tax rates in Myanmar are leaks out of the economy. on the lower end for the East Asia Pacific region.lxxiii Moreover, Myanmar’s Government needs more revenue to fund projects the country The Joint Bill Committee rejected a similar sorely needs, including infrastructure amnesty for the March 2018 tax bill.lxxiv development and electrification.lxxvii Annual fiscal deficits are already growing as the Despite the Joint Bill Committee’s previous Government seeks to increase spending on rejection of an amnesty, it is supported by a infrastructure.lxxviii While the Government is strong lobby of business owners, and by the taking steps to increase spending on public construction and real estate sectors. Together works by taking on more fiscal debt, a policy they argue that the positive impact of the that cuts tax revenue ultimately undermines amnesty would be felt not only on the property the Government’s development objectives, and real estate markets, but also on a range of and reaffirms the incentives for higher earners moveable goods, vehicles, and publicly and to continue to cheat on their income taxes. privately listed share markets. Ye Min Aung, leader of the tax working group at the Union A final decision on the tax bill and the potential of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of amnesty will be announced on September 22 Commerce and Industry, added that the and implemented on October 1. The Joint Bill

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Committee has met with business executives posts (see Conflict section). As of August 27, to scrutinize the effect of an amnesty on the border trading posts and sections of the economy. Mandalay-Muse route remain shut and traffic is not permitted on routes that lead to these CHINESE-MYANMAR ECONOMIC posts, adversely affecting local markets. COOPERATION ZONES THREATENED BY CONFLICT Chinese infrastructure projects associated with the BRI have not been harmed thus far, Myanmar’s Government is ready to sign a and China has not come up with an official framework agreement with China on cross- response to the attacks or the closing of trade border economic cooperation zones that will routes to the border.lxxx Nonetheless, attacks pave the way to implement China’s plans for on the trade route have the potential to cause Myanmar under the BRI.lxxix The Government serious disruption. The 2016-17 fiscal statistics agreed to set up a committee consisting of indicate that four-fifths of border-trade Chinese and Myanmar government revenue came from the Muse area. representatives to manage the creation of cross-border economic zones and come up UPDATE: NEW YANGON CITY with incentives for investors. On August 20, the New Yangon Development As part of the BRI, an MoU was signed in 2018 Company (NYDC) announced that two foreign on an economic corridor connecting China’s companies were selected to supply and Yunnan Province to Mandalay, then to Yangon distribute electricity and natural gas in New and the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone in Yangon City (NYC), as part of Stage Two of Rakhine State. Three sites in Kachin and Shan infrastructure development of the city.lxxxi states have already been approved, and Thailand’s PTT Group will supply and governmental ground surveys will be distribute electricity, and India’s Indraprastha conducted in border zones in the Muse and Gas Limited and Gail Consortium will supply Chinshwehaw areas. China has almost finished and distribute natural gas. building trade and transport infrastructure in three locations in Shan State for this corridor. The companies were selected out of a total of 77 expressions of interest from 45 different Before a framework agreement can be signed, companies through a “Swiss Challenge” both countries need to finish negotiating the competitive tender process. exact demarcation of cross-border economic co-operation zones. A committee will be set The NYDC hopes that the selection of two up to ensure that the agricultural production companies from India and Thailand will assuage and socioeconomic status of local residents is public and political analysts’ fears that NYC is not harmed and residents who have to relocate a China-controlled project that has resulted are given proper compensation for their from the lack of transparency surrounding the homes and farmlands, as well as given decision to select the state-owned China corresponding land in return. Given the history Communications Construction Company of both countries vis-à-vis inadequate land (CCCC) in May 2018 to carry out Stage One compensation, the effectiveness of such a of the project: building the initial hard committee is questionable. infrastructure of the city. During an interview for the MAA project, a representative from the However, the additional infrastructure this NYDC told Mekong Economics researchers cross-border cooperation requires will be that the procurement process for Stage Two restricted if EAOs continue to attack trading of the NYC project, which involves the

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development of transport, power, and waste significantly boost bandwidth, speed, and disposal infrastructure, would be open, reliability in rural areas, offering connectivity transparent, and competitive. strong enough for e-banking services and rescue information during natural disasters MYANMAR LAUNCHES OWN across the country. SATELLITE SYSTEM EXCHANGE RATE AND PRICE DATA Arianespace, the French service provider, successfully launched two satellites – Intelsat The Central Bank of Myanmar, informal 39/ Myanmar Sat 2 and EDRS-C – in the first market, and black market rates roughly week of August, which means that Myanmar followed the same trends over the last three will now have its own satellite system. A months, with a fall from ranges of MMK 1,520 government committee began work on to 1,530 to the dollar in June, to ranges of implementation in 2017. The system cost MMK 1,505 to 1,510 to the dollar in July, $155.7 million. Until now, Myanmar was paying before the rate stabilized by the end of August, over $10 million annually for leasing systems at MMK 1,515 to 1,520 to the dollar (shown in from the US, China, Thailand, Vietnam, and Figure 4). However, in the coming months, the Indonesia. Thus, the Government should begin kyat is expected to depreciate further against saving money in approximately 15 years’ the dollar, as trade tensions between the US time.lxxxii and China are on the rise, increasing tariffs on both sides and slowing global trade and foreign Rural areas stand to benefit the most from the investment.lxxxiii satellites. The Intelsat 39 has steerable beams that allow consumers to rapidly reposition Fuel prices decreased consistently throughout their service in response to changing June from MMK 1,000 ($0.65) per liter for applications and geographic requirements. The diesel and MMK 975 MMK ($0.64) per liter for Ministry of Transport and Communications Octane 95 to MMK 920 ($0.60) and MMK 895 (MoTC) will receive C- and Ku- band services ($0.59) respectively by July, stabilizing at the from the satellites starting in the fourth quarter lower prices in July and August. Local prices of 2019, furthering the goal to give 95 percent broadly followed the same trend as global of the population broadband access by 2022. crude oil prices; Brent crude oil averaged at The assimilation of satellite services into $69.45 a barrel on March 29, 2019, before mobile networks will also allow the MoTC to falling steeply on June 6 to $61.67, and

Figure 4. Myanmar Kyat to US Dollar Exchange Rates MEKONG ECONOMICS USAID.GOV AUGUST 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 14

Figure 5. Fuel Prices MEKONG ECONOMICS fluctuating around this average for the next over the last three months, with 49 kilograms three months, with prices on at $61.08 a barrel (108 lb) of Ei Ma Hta rice costing around MMK at the end of August (see Figure 5).lxxxiv The US 19,500 ($12); Paw San rice was equally stable Energy Information Administration predicts at MMK 44,000 ($29); and Zeeyar rice saw that crude oil prices will average $64 in the negligible fluctuation and essentially remained second half of 2019, so prices are likely to at just under MMK 20,000 ($13) (see Figure 6). increase slightly in the coming months, with This is surprising, given that border trade with fluctuations based on local changes in demand China is cooling due to the outbreak of conflict. due to weather conditions. Changing fuel Perhaps this did not have a marked effect on prices play a central role in determining the overall prices as rice traders have not yet lost cost of living and the costs of operating confidence that trading posts will reopen in the businesses.lxxxv near future. lxxxvi

Rice prices for the three types of rice typically consumed in Myanmar were remarkably stable

Figure 6. Rice Prices MEKONG ECONOMICS

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SOCIAL ISSUES not cause panic in the camps or make refugees flee out of fear of forced repatriation.xci

● Another attempt by Myanmar and While the Rohingya in Bangladesh are Bangladesh to initiate Rohingya determined not to go back as long as current repatriation failed due to the refugees’ conditions in Myanmar prevail, according to refusal to return without guaranteed one report, some of the 500 Myanmar Hindu safety and citizenship. refugees from the same camps wanted to ● Village Administrators in northern Shan repatriate on August 22. However, because State resign after village leader’s arrest arrangements had not been made for them, to protest the lack of protection from they could not return.xcii EAOs operating in the area. ● A land dispute resolution process that GOVERNMENT’S CONTINUED REGIONAL failed to mitigate tensions in Magway SUPPORT Region turned fatal when a boat At a meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi on July 31, capsized, killing 28 fleeing residents. Japan joined other countries in requesting that Twenty people are still missing. Myanmar increase efforts to repatriate the ● The Ma Ba Tha was declared illegal by Rohingya. Suu Kyi reacted positively to Japan’s the Myanmar Government. request, saying she appreciated “the goodwill ● The number of people affected by of other nations that want to help us.”xciii monsoon season already surpassed 2018 figures; a landslide in Mon State In reality, the Government of Myanmar claimed the lives of 75 residents and continues to reject suggestions by external displaced 100,000. actors to solve the Rohingya crisis. This month, the Government criticized the prime minister ROHINGYA CRISIS of Malaysia’s recommendation to create a separate state for the Rohingya or give them FAILED ROHINGYA REPATRIATION citizenship, claiming that either proposition ATTEMPT would violate ASEAN’s non-interference On August 15, officials from the Governments principles.xciv of Bangladesh and Myanmar announced that, out of 22,000 potential returnees suggested by The Myanmar delegation at the ASEAN Inter- Bangladesh, it planned to repatriate 3,540 Parliamentary General Assembly meeting in lxxxvii cleared by the Myanmar Government. Bangkok, held from August 25 to 30, also Stating that their conditions for citizenship and rejected a draft resolution – the details of guarantees of safety were still not met, which have not been released – proposed by Rohingya refugees refused another repatriation Indonesia, claiming it did not complement the lxxxviii attempt. Government of Myanmar’s efforts. Indonesia subsequently withdrew the resolution, which a On August 20, the UNHCR and Bangladesh Myanmar delegate, speaking to the Irrawaddy authorities held consultations with the selected daily, described as “shaming and blaming.”xcv refugees, in preparation for their return The delegate added that other ASEAN lxxxix arranged for two days later. The proposed member states supported Myanmar’s stand, repatriation attempt, like the previous one in which demonstrated ASEAN’s continued November 2018, was criticized by support of the Myanmar Government, despite international rights groups which echoed the mounting evidence of its failure to find a xc claims of the Rohingya refugees. Unlike the solution to the crisis. first failed attempt in 2018, the recent one did

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ADMINISTRATORS RESIGN IN people on both sides of the dispute have been NORTHERN SHAN arrested. There is no indication that the violence is related to differences in faith nor Twenty-two village tract administrators that the violence was sparked by Facebook resigned in Kyaukme Township, northern Shan comments. State, to protest the arrest of a village leader and in fear of similar arrests tied to pressures The dispute between the communities was from EAOs and the Tatmadaw. Village leader sparked by the Government-led resettlement Saint Cho was arrested and charged under the of Kantha villagers onto fertile land, which Unlawful Associations Act after being Payekun villagers claim is their land. The suspected of raising money to support the local Kanthas’ old village was threatened by river xcvi EAOs. erosion.ci The dispute continued to grow over the past year, with no resolution for the locals. His arrest and subsequent resignation highlight Local authorities seem to have been aware of the intense situation in which village the risk, having urged both villages not to turn administrators are forced to operate. to violence.cii The attempts to resolve the According to Saint Cho’s older brother, it is dispute, unfortunately, did not prevent clashes impossible for a village administrator to refuse between the two villages, highlighting the the demands of EAOs without fearing for one’s current difficulties in resettlement and land law life. But when an administrator is forced to disputes. While land disputes occur in support EAOs, he will then be detained by the Myanmar, one of this gravity is rare. Tatmadaw. Saint Cho attempted to resign in April because he felt threatened, but his FREE SPEECH WATCH resignation was not accepted by the Township

Administrator.xcvii MA BA THA DECLARED ILLEGAL

On July 30, the Ma Ha Na – a council within Reports of the mass resignation signal how the Ministry of Religious Affairs and Culture deeply vulnerable the administrators feel, as that oversees and regulates the Buddhist clergy well as a lack of alternative options. in Myanmar -- declared the ultranationalist Administrators risk arrest for actions that are Buddha Dhamma Parahita Foundation, also forced on them by the EAOs, instead of known as the Ma Ba Tha, to be an illegal receiving protection from the Government and organization after Ma Ba Tha’s chairman and the Tatmadaw. xcviii vice chairman failed to respond to a summons

to appear before the Ma Ha Na.ciii They were FATAL LAND DISPUTE IN MAGWAY summoned to be censured for criticizing the

NLD during a speech at a public event in June. Toward the end of July, an ongoing land dispute The action against Ma Ba Tha, coupled with the in Yenangyaung Township turned deadly when arrest warrant against monk Ashin Wirathu, two villages clashed, resulting in 28 confirmed shows further evidence that the Government fatalities and 20 people missing and feared dead is taking a more hardline stance against due to an overcrowded boat capsizing. ultranationalist Buddhists in Myanmar, in

response to the ultranationalists’ opposition to On July 23, Payekun villagers, armed with the Government ahead of the 2020 elections. swords, spears, and catapults, destroyed Kantha-owned houses on the disputed land.xcix LAWSUITS AGAINST FORMER The attacks led to rioting and over 100 Kantha TATMADAW SENIOR OFFICER villagers tried to flee on a boat, overcrowding An arrest warrant was issued for former and panic caused the boat to capsize.c Four Tatmadaw Lieutenant-Colonel Hla Swe for

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organizing a rally on August 3 to protest the is notable because earlier in the month new US sanctions on Myanmar’s senior military Tatmadaw bought a submarine from India (see leaders and their families.civ The sedition charge Politics section), which “definitely disappointed was filed by a deputy administrator for the Chinese government. Consequently, it Kyauktada Township in Yangon Region. A supplied weapons to the ethnic armed groups Muslim leader also filed a lawsuit against Hla in Myanmar to fight against the Burmese Swe for hate speech against Islam at the same military.”cxii rally.cv At time of writing, Hla Swe remains at large.cvi By persecuting Dr. Samson following his visit to Washington, the Tatmadaw is demonstrating KAREN MARTYRS’ DAY that they will not allow Americans to get Police in Kyauktada charged three organizers involved in Kachin affairs, which is seen as a under the Peaceful Assembly Act for hosting move by the Tatmadaw to improve its the 69th annual Karen Martyrs’ Day relationship with the Chinese Government. celebration in Yangon without the The retired Kachin diplomat explained, “[The Government’s permission.cvii The event, which lawsuit] is nuanced, because they are in prior years was held across states and essentially using Dr. Samson to weaken the regions, was banned for the second year in a Kachin, while China plays its game of row for using the word “martyr” in its name. It promoting peace between Tatmadaw and the took place on August 12 anyway, and was KIO/KIA, while at the same time supporting attended by approximately 300 people.cviii both sides to continue fighting.”

TATMADAW SUES KACHIN RELIGIOUS On September 9, the Tatmadaw plaintiff LEADER FOR HIS COMMENTS AT THE withdrew the case after the US State WHITE HOUSE Department voiced its concern about the On August 26, a Tatmadaw lieutenant colonel case.cxiii filed a complaint against the President of the Kachin Baptist Convention, Reverend Dr. INVESTIGATION INTO GOVERNMENT Hkalam Samson, for “knowingly giving false OFFICIALS DESCRIBING RAKHINES AS information” during a meeting with US “NATIONALS” President Donald Trump. Samson told The President’s Office plans to investigate and President Trump that there is no religious take action against government officials from freedom in Myanmar and thanked him for the the Ministries of Construction and Information recently imposed sanctions against senior who described Rohingya refugees in military officials.cix The religious leader was Bangladesh as “nationals” in a story published among a group of representatives from 17 in state-run newspapers and shown on state- countries invited to meet the president at the run television. The President’s Office stated White House on June 17. The court will decide that the description “did not represent the on September 9 whether to proceed with the Government’s policy and stance” and usage of charge.cx Kachin human rights activist Khon Ja the word could lead to “misunderstandings.”cxiv noted that the Tatmadaw’s accusation is meant as a threat to silence the Kachin people.cxi UPDATE: LOIKAW STATUE, KAYAH STATE On August 26, six Karenni activists who issued A retired Kachin diplomat and a Kachin activist a statement against Kayah State lawmakers in leader believe that the Tatmadaw is trying to March accusing them of being traitors for curry favor with China by showing that it does erecting a statue of General Aung San, were not like the American Government. The timing charged with slander.cxv If convicted, they could

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face sentences from six months to three years cancellation of private ferries in Irrawaddy in prison. The Kayan National Party chairman Region at the beginning of August, said the charges illustrated the government’s infrastructural damage to the Yangon- “political immaturity,” and the power the Kawthaung Highway is expected to take a Tatmadaw and the NLD have over the considerable amount of time to repair.cxx courts.cxvi

MONSOON

Heavy rains caused massive flooding and fatal landslides in August, displacing 100,000 people and affecting 230,000 across 12 states and regions.cxvii The International Red Cross launched a $300,000 emergency action plan, noting that the number of people affected already surpassed the 2018 monsoon figures despite two more months until the monsoon season is predicted to end this year.cxviii Figure 6 maps the townships affected by flooding this year.

A catastrophic landslide in Paung Township, Mon State, claimed the lives of 75 people. Local residents estimated 40 people are missing.cxix The landslide – resulting from 76.6 cm (30 inches) of rain in two days – is deemed to be a one-off event. A Government assessment team concluded that the area was safe and residents did not need to be evacuated, but locals worry about another landslide. The Mon State Chief Minister said, “Whether we allow people to stay near the mountain will depend on the report and rehabilitation process.”

The monsoon also caused damage to vital Figure 6. Townships Impacted by Monsoon transport and trade routes. While many Floods, As of August 15, 2019. OCHA MYANMAR1 disruptions are temporary, such as the

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ENDNOTES i DMG, “Alliance Forces Warn Local Militiamen Stay Out of Armed Fights,” Development Media Group, August 18, 2019. https://www.dmediag.com/news/542-afw?fbclid=iwar0_qb8rukn0 ii ACLED Data (September 6, 2019), distributed by The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project Archive, https://www.acleddata.com/data iii ACLED Data, September 6, 2019. iv Chit Min Tun, “TNLA, MNDAA Attack Myanmar Army Base in N. Shan State,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 9, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/tnla-mndaa-attack-myanmar-army-base-n- shan-state.html; Moe Myint, “Organized Rebel Attacks on Myanmar military Academy and Nearby Sites Kill Two,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 15, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/organized- rebel-attacks-myanmar-military-academy-nearby-sites-kill-two.html; Htet Naoing Zaw & Zarni Mann, “15 Myanmar Soldiers, Police and Civilians Dead in Coordinated Attacks,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 15, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/15-myanmar-soldiers-police-civilians-dead-coordinated- attacks.html; Clare Hammond & Kyaw Lin Htoon, “‘The Tatmadaw will Retaliate’: Police Killed as Conflict Escalates in Shan State,” Frontier Myanmar (Yangon, Myanmar), August 15, 2019. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/the-tatmadaw-will-retaliate-police-killed-as-conflict-escalates-in-shan-state; Myat Thura, “Attacks Caused Hundreds of Millions in Damage, President’s Office Says,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), August 19, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/attacks-caused-hundreds-millions-damage- presidents-office-says.html; Zeyar Hein, “57 Tourists Evacuated after Thursday Attacks,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), August 19, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/57-tourists-evacuated-after-thursday- attacks.html; Kyaw Kha, “Militiamen Killed, Injured as Myanmar Rebels Continue Shan State Attacks,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 26, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/militiamen-killed-injured-as- myanmar-rebels-continue-shan-state-attacks.html v Chit Min Tun, “Shan Group Urges Release of Brothers Held for Raid on Myanmar Military Academy,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 28, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/shan-group-urges- release-brothers-held-raid-myanmar-military-academy.html vi Chan Mya Htwe, “Chin Shwe Haw at Standstill due to Blasts,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), August 20, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/chin-shwe-haw-standstill-due-blasts.html vii Myo Pa Pa San, “Ongoing Fighting Decimates Myanmar-China Border Trade,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 27, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/ongoing-fighting-decimates-myanmar-china-border- trade.html viii Zeyar Hein, “Certain Vehicles Permitted on Temporary Gote Win Bridge,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), August 21, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/certain-vehicles-permitted-temporary-gote-win- bridge.html ix Chan Mya Htwe, August 20, 2019. x Nan Lwin Hnin Pwint & Htet Naing Zaw, “Schools Closed, Villagers Flee Amid Fighting in Myanmar’s Northeast,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 20, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/schools- closed-villagers-flee-amid-fighting-myanmars-northeast.html; Kyaw Ko Ko, “Pyin Oo Lwin Businesses Suffer After Effects of Attack,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), August 28, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/pyin-oo-lwin-businesses-suffer-after-effects-attack.html xi Myo Pa Pa San, August 27, 2019; Kyaw Ko Ko, August 28, 2019. xii “Myanmar Govt Condemns Joint Rebel Attacks as ‘Terrorism,’” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 16, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-govt-condemns-joint-rebel-attacks-terrorism.html xiii Clare Hammond & Kyaw Lin Htoon, August 15, 2019; RFA, “Three Myanmar Ethnic Armies Stage Attacks in Mandalay Region and Northern Shan State,” Radio Free Asia, August 15, 2019. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/three-myanmar-ethnic-armies-08152019172520.html xiv Myat Thura, “Ethnic Armed Alliance Launches Coordinated Attacks in Six Places,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), August 16, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/ethnic-armed-alliance-launches-coordinated- attacks-six-places.html

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xv Foreign advisor on pro-democracy and human rights movements in Myanmar, personal communication with author, August 22, 2019. xvi Myat Thura, August 19, 2019. xvii Nan Lwin, “Rebel Strikes Cast Shadow on China’s BRI Projects in Myanmar,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 20, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/analysis/rebel-strikes-cast-shadow-chinas-bri-projects- myanmar.html xviii Nan Lwin, “China Condemns Myanmar’s Ethnic Rebels for Shan State Fighting,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 19, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/china-condemns-myanmars-ethnic- rebels-shan-state-fighting.html xix Nan Lwin, August 19, 2019; Htet Naing Zaw, “At Talks in China, Beijing Urges Myanmar Rebel Groups to Stop Fighting,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 21, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/talks-china-beijing-urges-myanmar-rebel-groups-stop-fighting.html xx Nyein Nyein & Htet Naing Zaw, “ One Killed, 4 Hurt as Rescue Team Hit by RPG, Sniper in Myanmar’s Shan State,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 17, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/one-killed-4- hurt-rescue-team-hit-rpg-sniper-myanmars-shan-state.html xxi Shan Herald Agency for News, “Nearly 500 IDPs Seek Refuge in Tangyan Following Tatmadaw Attack on SSPP,” BNI News, August 13, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/nearly-500-idps-seek-refuge-tangyan- following-tatmadaw-attack-sspp; ACLED Data, September 6, 2019. xxii RFA, “Fresh Clash in Myanmar’s Northern Shan State Drives Ethnic Villagers from Homes,” Radio Free Asia, August 7, 2019. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/fresh-clash-in-myanmars-northern-shan-state- 08072019175223.html; Nang Seng Nom, “Tatmadaw Fires on SSPP in Tangyan,” Shan Herald Agency for News (Panglong, Myanmar), August 8, 2019. https://english.shannews.org/archives/19617 xxiii ACLED Data, September 6, 2019. xxiv RFA, “Policeman Killed, Five Officers Injured in Attack on Convoy in Myanmar’s Rakhine State,” Radio Free Asia, August 20, 2019. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/policeman-killed-five-officers-injured-in- attack-08202019170712.html; Moe Myint, “Arakan Army Raids Myanmar Military Base in Northern Rakhine,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 28, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/arakan-army-raids- myanmar-military-base-northern-rakhine.html xxv Khin Myat Myat Wai, “More Refugees Flee Fighting in Rakhine,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), August 7 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/more-refugees-flee-fighting-rakhine.html; RFA, “Myanmar Military Prevents Lawmaker, NGOs from Accessing Displaced in Rakhine State” Radio Free Asia, August 9, 2019. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmar-military-prevents-lawmaker-08092019161702.html xxvi Moe Myint, “Myanmar Military Restricts Movement in Northern Rakhine’s Minbya,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 14, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-restricts-movement- northern-rakhines-minbya.html xxvii RFA, August 9, 2019. xxviii Development Media Group, “Eight People Accused of Ties to AA,” BNI Media, July 30, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/eight-people-accused-ties-aa; Development Media Group, “Six Detained Youths Released,” BNI Media, August 17, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/six-detained-youths- released xxix Min Aung Khine, “Five Civilians Charged Under Anti-Terrorism Act in Western Myanmar,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 14, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/five-civilians-charged-anti- terrorism-act-western-myanmar.html xxx Min Aung Khine, August 14, 2019; Min Aung Khine, “Primary School Teacher Detained in Rakhine State,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 7, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/primary-school- teacher-detained-in-rakhine-state.html; Khin Myat Myat Wai, “Military Hits Teacher with Counter-Terrorism Charge,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), August 8, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/military-hits- teacher-counter-terrorism-charge.html

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xxxi AFP, “Eight Charged in Myanmar for ‘Funding Arakan Army,’” Frontier Myanmar (Yangon, Myanmar), August 9, 2019. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/eight-charged-in-myanmar-for-funding-arakan-army; Thu Thu Aung, “Myanmar Court Charges Eight over Alleged Ties to Insurgents,” Reuters, August 9, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rakhine-singapore/myanmar-court-charges-eight-over-alleged- ties-to-insurgents-idUSKCN1UZ19M xxxii AFP, August 9, 2019; Thu Thu Aung, “Myanmar Citizens Deported from Singapore over Alleged Insurgent Ties Remanded in Custody,” Reuters, July 26, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rakhine- singapore/myanmar-citizens-deported-from-singapore-over-alleged-insurgent-ties-remanded-in-custody- idUSKCN1UL0XY xxxiii Khonumthung News, “Villagers Flee Clashes near Chin-Rakhine Border,” BNI News, August 9, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/villagers-flee-clashes-near-chin-rakhine-border xxxiv Chit Min Tun, “8 Missing Amid Clashes in Western Myanmar’s Chin State,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 15, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/8-missing-amid-clashes-western-myanmars-chin- state.html xxxv Chit Min Tun, August 15, 2019; Khonumthung News, “More Civilians being Reported Missing in Paletwa, Human Rights Org Says,” BNI Media, August 14, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/more-civilians-being- reported-missing-paletwa-human-rights-org-says xxxvi RFA, August 15, 2019. xxxvii Kachin News Group, “Abducted Chin Villagers Released by Arakan Army,” BNI News, August 2, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/abducted-chin-villagers-released-arakan-army; International Christian Concern, “Myanmar Villagers Released After Six Months of Captivity,” International Christian Concern, August 5, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.persecution.org/2019/08/05/myanmar-villagers-released-six- months-captivity/ xxxviii Chit Min Tun, “12 More Chin Abductees Escaped AA Captors Las Month: Rights Group,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), July 4, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/12-chin-abductees-escaped-aa- captors-last-month-rights-group.html xxxix Chit Min Tun, July 4, 2019. xl ICC, “Myanmar Villagers Released After Six Months of Captivity,” International Christian Concern. August 5, 2019. Accessed August 26, 2019. https://www.persecution.org/2019/08/05/myanmar-villagers-released-six- months-captivity/ xli Nyan Lynn Aung, Kyaw Soe Htet, “UN fact-finding mission urges sanctions against military-owned businesses”, Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) August 5, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/un-fact- finding-mission-urges-sanctions-against-military-owned-businesses.html xlii ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights, “Parliamentarians call for targeted sanctions against Myanmar military and affiliated companies”, ReliefWeb, August 8, 2019. https://reliefweb.int/report/myanmar/parliamentarians-call-targeted-sanctions-against-myanmar-military-and- affiliated xliii Carroll, Joshua, “Belgian Company on 'Dirty List' Cuts Ties With Myanmar Military” VOA News, August 12, 2019. https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/belgian-company-dirty-list-cuts-ties-myanmar-military xliv The Irrawaddy, “Govt Rejects UN Report Calling for Boycott of Military-Tied Companies” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) August 6, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/govt-rejects-un-report-calling- boycott-military-tied-companies.html xlv The U.N. Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar, Sexual and Gender-Based Violence in Myanmar and the Gendered Impact of Its Ethnic Conflicts (Yangon, Myanmar: United Nations Human Rights Council, 2019). https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/FFM- Myanmar/sexualviolence/A_HRC_CRP_4.pdf xlvi San Yamin Aung, “Myanmar Parliament Approves Constitutional Amendment Committee Report”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) August 9, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-parliament- approves-constitutional-amendment-committee-report.html

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xlvii Moe Moe, “NLD Parliamentarians Unbothered by Military Absence in Charter Amendment Debate”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) July 30, 2019 https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/nld-parliamentarians- unbothered-military-absence-charter-amendment-debate.html xlviii San Yamin Aung, “Parliamentary Debate on Myanmar Constitutional Reform Gears Up”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) August 23, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/parliamentary-debate-myanmar- constitutional-reform-gears.html xlix Nan Lwin, “India, Myanmar Strengthen Military Ties”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) July 30, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/india-myanmar-strengthen-military-ties.html lMizzima, “India set to deliver submarine to Myanmar Navy”, Mizzima News (Yangon, Myanmar) July 31, 2019. http://mizzima.com/article/india-set-deliver-submarine-myanmar-navy li Moe Myint, “Chinese Ambassador Says Beijing Stands with Myanmar on Rohingya Issue”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar)August 22, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/chinese-ambassador-says-beijing- stands-myanmar-rohingya-issue.html lii Mon News Agency, “Ethnic armed alliance, UNFC, temporarily suspended”, Burma News International, August 6, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/ethnic-armed-alliance-unfc-temporarily-suspended liiiMon News Agency, “KNU to cooperate in the peace process”, Burma News International, August 12, 2019 https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/knu-cooperate-peace-process liv Network Media Group, “KIO Leaders Meet Chinese Representatives in Laiza”, Burma News International, August 5, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/kio-leaders-meet-chinese-representatives-laiza lv Swe Lei Mon, “No progress at meeting between government, Northern Alliance” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) August 7, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/no-progress-meeting-between-government- northern-alliance.html lvi Min Naing Soe, “Govt proposes to ethnic NCA signatories to hold UPC fourth meeting”, Eleven Media Group (Yangon, Myanmar) August 22, 2019. https://elevenmyanmar.com/news/govt-proposes-to-ethnic-nca- signatories-to-hold-upc-fourth-meeting lviiMin Naing Soe, “NRPC, KNU and RCSS see good results in informal meeting in Thailand” Eleven Media Group (Yangon, Myanmar) August 21, 2019. https://elevenmyanmar.com/news/nrpc-knu-and-rcss-see-good-results-in- informal-meeting-in-thailand lviiiNyein Nyein, “Formal Peace Talks Will Resume in Step-by-Step Process: EAOs” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) August 26, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/formal-peace-talks-will-resume-step-step- process-eaos.html lix Myat Thura, “Assembly OKs membership in anti-graft academy” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) August 9, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/assembly-oks-membership-anti-graft-academy.html lx San Yamin Aung, “Myanmar to Join International Anti-Corruption Academy”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) August 5, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-join-international-anti- corruption-academy.html lxi Yuichi Nitta, “Myanmar's Suu Kyi furious about corruption ahead of elections”, Nikkei Asian Review, August 19, 2019. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Myanmar-s-Suu-Kyi-furious-about-corruption-ahead-of-elections lxii Myat Thura, “NLD suspends senior official for ‘infractions’” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) August 21, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/nld-suspends-senior-official-infractions.html lxiii “Small Hydropower Plant in Tanintharyi River.” Eleven Media, 2019. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=487303055348263; Candle Light, Southern Youth and Tarkapaw Youth Group. “Blocking a Bloodline”. August 2019. https://progressivevoicemyanmar.org/wp- content/uploads/2019/08/Blocking-a-Bloodline-Layout-Final_V4-_-Arial-1.pdf lxiv Ibid. lxv Myat Moe Aung. “Tanintharyi Dam project Draws Local Ire”. The Myanmar Times. 14 August 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/tanintharyi-dam-project-draws-local-ire.html

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lxvi Tanintharyi River and Indigenous People Network ”Beyond the River: Local Knowledge Based Research” July 2019. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1isw10en6BM8luVQPAist0vxdsVSa- WlL/view?fbclid=IwAR0qoNsvNFr-3Z4EfXukVJJ6PyIMmB01kAsC8qU0P27TbVmIg4AUYJtHbrs lxvii The World Bank International Finance Corporation. “Performance and Learning Review for the Country Partnership Framework the Republic of the Union of Myanmar”. May 2017. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/634171504721894056/pdf/Myamar-PLR-CPF-FY15-17-May-26- 2017-Final-06022017.pdf lxviii Leonie Kijewski. “New Report: Proposed Myanmar Dam Could Displace Thousands” Al Jazeera. 14 August 2019. https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/report-proposed-myanmar-dam-displace-thousands- 190813010128560.html lxix Myat Moe Aung. “Tanintharyi Dam project Draws Local Ire”. The Myanmar Times. 14 August 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/tanintharyi-dam-project-draws-local-ire.html lxx Leonie Kijewski. “New Report: Proposed Myanmar Dam Could Displace Thousands” Al Jazeera. 14 August 2019. https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/report-proposed-myanmar-dam-displace-thousands- 190813010128560.html lxxi Chan Mya Thwe. “Tax Amnesty Proposed Prompting Renewed Debate”. The Myanmar Times. 19 August 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/tax-amnesty-proposed-prompting-renewed-debate.html lxxii Ibid lxxiii “List of Countries by Personal Income Tax Rate| Asia”. Trading Economics. December 2018. Accessed: 02/09/19. https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/personal-income-tax-rate?continent=asia lxxiv PWC Myanmar Weekly Business Intelligence. Issue 102. 30 March 2018. https://www.pwc.com/mm/en/publications/assets/newsletters/myanmar-business-intelligence-102.pdf lxxv Thomas Kean and Myan Hlaing Lynn. “Slashed! Tax Amnesty Gets the Chop.” Frontier Myanmar. 30 March 2018 https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/slashed-tax-amnesty-gets-the-chop lxxvi Ibid. lxxvii World Bank Group. Myanmar Economic Monitor June 2019. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/myanmar/publication/myanmar-economic-monitor-reforms-building- momentum-for-growth lxxviii Htoo Thant. “Budget Deficit Expected to Hit K7 Trillion in Next Fiscal Year”. The Myanmar Times. 19 June 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/budget-deficit-expected-hit-k7-trillion-next-fiscal-year.html lxxix Nan Lwin. “Myanmar Set to Ink Pact with China on Border Cooperation Zones” The Irawaddy. 15 August 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/myanmar-set-ink-pact-china-border-cooperation-zones.html lxxx Chan Mya Htwe. “Border Trade Disruption Could Last a While”. The Myanmar Times. 23 August 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/border-trade-disruption-could-last-while.html lxxxi The Irrawaddy, “Thai, Indian Firms Selected to Supply Power, Gas to Myanmar New City Near Yangon” The Irrawaddy, August 21 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/thai-indian-firms-selected-supply- power-gas-myanmar-new-city-near-yangon.html lxxxii Kyaw Soe Htet. “Myanmar’s Very Own Satellite Now in Orbit”. The Myanmar Times. 8 August 2019 https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmars-very-own-satellite-now-orbit.html lxxxiii Kang Wen Chern, “Expect kyat to depreciate over the next two years: Fitch”. The Myanmar Times. 26 August 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/expect-kyat-depreciate-over-next-two-years-fitch.html lxxxiv “Oil (Brent) Commodity Price”. Markets Insider. September 2019. Accessed: 02/09/19 https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti?utm_source=intl lxxxv “Short-Term Energy Outlook”. US Energy Information Administration. 6 August 2019. Accessed: 02/09/19. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/prices.php lxxxvi Ei Myat Mon. “Mandalay Market Cools as trade halts on Mandalay-Buse Road”. Myanmar Digitil News. 27 August 2019. http://www.mdn.gov.mm/en/mandalay-market-cools-trade-halts-mandalay-muse-road

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lxxxvii Thu Thu Aung, Poppy McPherson & Ruma Paul, “Exclusive: Myanmar, Bangladesh Agree to Start Rohingya Repatriation Next Week,” Reuters, August 15, 2019. https://in.reuters.com/article/myanmar-rohingya- idINKCN1V51O7 lxxxviii Khin Myat Myat Wai, “Refugees Decline Latest Repatriation to Myanmar,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), August 23, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/refugees-decline-latest-repatriation- myanmar.html; Hannah Ellis-Petersen & Shaikh Azizur Rahman, “Rohingya Refugees Refuse to Return to Myanmar Without Rights Guarantee,” Guardian, August 21, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/21/not-without-our-rights-rohingya-refugees-refuse-to-return- to-myanmar lxxxix Ruma Paul, “U.N. Agency, Bangladesh Begin Survey of Rohingya Over Return to Myanmar,” Reuters, August 20, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya/u-n-agency-bangladesh-begin-survey- of-rohingya-over-return-to-myanmar-idUSKCN1VA0N9 xc Roseann Gerin, “Rights Groups Urge Bangladesh, Myanmar to Suspend Rohingya Returns,” Radio Free Asia, August 21, 2019. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/rights-groups-urge-bangladesh-myanmar- 08212019175809.html xci Hannah Ellis-Petersen & Shaikh Azizur Rahman, August 21, 2019. xcii Narinjara, “Myanmar’s Hindu Refugees Prefer an Early Return,” BNI Media, August 26, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/myanmars-hindu-refugees-prefer-early-return xciii Htoo Thant, “Japan Urges Myanmar to Improve Refugee Plan,” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar), August 1, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/japan-urges-myanmar-improve-refugee-plan.html xciv Radio Free Asia, “Malaysia PM’s Call for Rohingya Citizenship or Separate State Rankles Myanmar,” Radio Free Asia, August 2, 2019. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/malaysia-pms-call-for-rohingya-citizenship- 08022019165322.html xcv Nyein Nyein, “Most ASEAN Members Back Myanmar’s Repatriation, Aid Efforts in Rakhine,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 28, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/asean-members-back- myanmars-repatriation-aid-efforts-rakhine.html xcvi Lawi Weng, “More than 20 village Adminisatrators in N. Shan Quit to Protest Leader’s Arrest”, The Irrawaddy, August 30, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/20-village-administrators-n-shan-quit- protest-leaders-arrest.html xcvii Nan Lwin Hnin Pwint, “No One Wants to Be a Village Administrator in Shan State”, The Irrawaddy, August 30, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/in-person/interview/no-one-wants-village-administrator-shan-state.html xcviii Ibid. xcix Sit Htet Aung, “Four people, including official, arrested in deadly land dispute”, Myanmar Times, August 1, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/four-people-including-official-arrested-deadly-land-dispute.html c Kaung Myat Min, “Govt Investigation Team to Probe Deadly Magwe Land Dispute”, Irrawaddy, July 29, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/govt-investigation-team-probe-deadly-magwe-land-dispute.html ci Nay Aung, “Magway govt to launch probe after at least 26 killed in land dispute”, Frontier Myanmar, July 29, 2019. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/magway-govt-to-launch-probe-after-at-least-26-killed-in-land-dispute cii Ibid. ciii Htun Htun, “Religion Ministry Done Leaving Sangha to Govern Ma Ba Tha,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), July 31, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/religion-ministry-done-leaving-sangha-govern-ma-ba- tha.html; RFA, “Ultranationalist Myanmar Monk Group Declared Illegal by Top Buddhist Organization,” Radio Free Asia, August 1, 2019. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/ultranationalist-myanmar-monk-group- 07302019164233.html civ Htun Htun, “Arrest Warrant Issued for Former Myanmar Military Officer,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 8, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/arrest-warrant-issued-former-myanmar-military- officer.html

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cv Htun Htun, “Muslim Leader Files Suit Against Ex-Officer for ‘Hate Speech’ Against Islam,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 6, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/muslim-leader-files-suit-ex-officer-hate- speech-islam.html cvi Karai Nura, “President Office has not Given a Directive for Prosecuting Bullet Hla Swe,” Mizzima (Yangon, Myanmar), August 17, 2019. http://www.mizzima.com/article/president-office-has-not-given-directive- prosecuting-bullet-hla-swe cvii Mizzima, “Case Registered Over using Term Karen Martyr’s Day at Yangon Event,” BNI Media, August 17, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/case-registered-over-using-term-karen-martyrs-day-yangon-event cviii Sit Htet Aung, “Karen Mark ‘Martyr’s Day,’ Risking Govt Ire,” Myanmar Times, August 13, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/karen-mark-martyrs-day-risking-govt-ire.html cix Sam Aung Moon, “Myanmar Army Sues Religious Leader who Told Trump the Military ‘Tortured’ Christians,” Reuters, August 30, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-military/myanmar-army- sues-religious-leader-who-told-trump-the-military-tortured-christians-idUSKCN1VJ2B1 cx Nan Lwin, “Myanmar Military Leader Sues Kachin Religious Leader for White House Comment”, Irrawaddy, August 28, 2018. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-sues-kachin-religious-leader- white-house-comments.html cxi Zaw Htet, “KBC leader expects to solve the accusation openly and transparently,'' Voice of America, August 28, 2019. https://burmese.voanews.com/a/kbc-leader-hkalam-samson-case- /5060182.html?fbclid=IwAR3ICkSEPwlQl2xv6Q77DXFerHADs_dnIelrU4uEKBJTiGsmGnt5IU59Bhw cxii Kachin Activist Leader, personal communication with the author, September 2, 2019. cxiii Nan Lwin, “Myanmar Military Drops Case Against Kachin Leader over Conversation with Trump,” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) September 9, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military- drops-case-kachin-leader-conversation-trump.html cxiv Myat Thura, “Govt Threatens Charges Over Use of Word in Rakhine Story,” Myanmar Times, August 22, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/govt-threatens-charges-over-use-word-rakhine-story.html cxv Htet Khaung Lin, “Karenni Activists Charged in Loikaw, in Myanmar’s Kayah State,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), August 26, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/karenni-activists-charged-in-loikaw-in- myanmars-kayah-state.html cxvi Ibid. cxvii Myat Moe Aung, “Floods hit 2000 people”, Myanmar Times, August 7, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/floods-hit-2000-people.html cxviii IFRC, “Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Myanmar: Monsoon Floods”, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Cresent Societies, August 22, 2019. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/MDRMM012do.pdf cxix Naw Betty Han, “Mon State death toll rises to 75 as landslide zone gets all clear”, Frontier, August 19, 2019. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/mon-state-death-toll-rises-to-75-as-landslide-zone-gets-all-clear cxx Salai Thant Zin, “Weather Concerns Halt Water Transit in Irrawaddy Region”, The Irrawaddy, August 6, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/weather-concerns-halt-water-transit-irrawaddy-region.html; Mizzima, “Social Welfare Minister visits flood-hit areas for relief work”, BNI Multimedia Group, August 12, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/social-welfare-minister-visits-flood-hit-areas-relief-work

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