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72048218C00004 Myanmar Analytical Activity USAID/BURMA MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT August 2019 Contract Number: 72048218C00004 Myanmar Analytical Activity Acknowledgement This report has been written by Kimetrica LLC (www.kimetrica.com) and Mekong Economics (www.mekongeconomics.com) as part of the Myanmar Analytical Activity, and is therefore the exclusive property of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Melissa Earl (Kimetrica) is the author of this report and reachable at [email protected] or at Kimetrica LLC, 80 Garden Center, Suite A-368, Broomfield, CO 80020. The author’s views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. USAID.GOV AUGUST 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 0 AUGUST 2019 AT A GLANCE Brotherhood Alliance Carries Out New Attacks. On August 15, the newly- proclaimed Brotherhood Alliance – the Arakan Army (AA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDA) and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) – carried out a series of attacks, including some that were coordinated simultaneous, in five locations in Mandalay Region and northern Shan State. (Page 2) Attacks by Brotherhood Alliance Damage Infrastructure and Stall Border Trade. The Brotherhood Alliance’s attacks damaged key infrastructure and stalled border trade between Myanmar and China, negatively impacting the Myanmar economy and threatening progress of China-Myanmar Economic Corridor projects (Page 4). Second Round of Rohingya Repatriation Fails. Nearly a year after the first attempt failed, the governments of Myanmar and Bangladesh tried and failed once more to repatriate Rohingya refugees living in Bangladesh due to their continued refusal to return while conditions remain unsafe in Myanmar (Page 16). UN Fact Finding Mission Calls for Sanctions on Tatmadaw-Owned Businesses. The UN’s extensive report documents the Tatmadaw’s network of businesses and called for international sanctions on any company connected to the Tatmadaw (Page 7). Union Parliament Approves Report on Constitutional Reform. The Union Parliament formally approved the Charter Amendment Committee’s report on proposed constitutional reforms. The proposed reforms continue to be debated by members of parliament (Page 8). 2019 Union Tax Bill Pardons Tax Evaders and High Earners. A tax amnesty for previously undisclosed income by higher earners and tax evaders was included in the 2019 Union Tax Bill despite criticism that the bill is unfair and will not spur economic growth (Page 11). Government Battles Extreme Buddhist Nationalism Ahead of Election. The Government declared the Ma Ba Tha an illegal organization, a sign that the Government is making some effort to fight extreme Buddhist nationalism ahead of the 2020 general election (Page 17). USAID.GOV AUGUST 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1 CONFLICT SHAN STATE BROTHERHOOD ALLIANCE ● Three ethnic armed organizations On August 15, the newly-proclaimed (EAOs) of the Northern Alliance Brotherhood Alliance – the AA, MNDAA, and carried out joint attacks in Mandalay TNLA – carried out a series of attacks on Region and Shan State, causing public infrastructure and the Defense Services significant damage to infrastructure. Technical Academy, including coordinated ● Fighting between Shan State Progress simultaneous attacks, in five locations in Party-North (SSPP) and the Tatmadaw Mandalay Region and Northern Shan State.i led to civilian casualties and injuries, Following the attacks, the Brotherhood causing hundreds of villagers to flee. Alliance and Tatmadaw exchanged fire and ● Heavy conflict continues in Rakhine launched artillery attacks in Shan State, State between the AA and the particularly Hseni, Kutkai and Lashio Tatmadaw, with tens of civilians injured townships, killing about 50 Tatmadaw soldiers.ii and killed, and thousands trapped in Four civilians were killed and 14 injured in the Minbya Township. crossfire, as well as 500 people from Nant Paung village, Lashio Township, forced to flee following fighting near the village.iii Figure 1 maps conflict events in Myanmar between June 23 and July 20, 2019 as reported Details of the Brotherhood Alliance attacks are by the Armed Conflict and Location Event detailed in Figure 2. The attacks resulted in Data (ACLED) project. hundreds of millions of kyat in damage to vital transport infrastructure, including the Gote Twin Bridge in Nawngcho Township. Since the Figure 1. Conflict Hot Spot Map (July 20 – August 31, 2019) KIMETRICA LLC, DATA SOURCE: ACLED USAID.GOV AUGUST 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 2 Figure 2. Brotherhood Alliance Attack Map August 2019 KIMETRICA LLC, DATA SOURCE: ACLED attacks started, over 3,000 civilians have fled the transport infrastructure is restored.ix The their homes to internally displaced persons disruption in trade has resulted in significant (IDP) camps in Kutkai and Lashio Townships, price increases and businesses are struggling and over 50 international tourists were owing to decreased market activity.x Border evacuated to Yangon and Mandalay regions.iv In trade in rice, beans, pulses and other crops has the week after the attacks, the Tatmadaw stalled as has tourism in Pyin Oo Lwin and the detained two teachers from Pyin Oo Lwin for garment industry in Myanmar which relies on their alleged involvement, which follows the raw materials imported from China.xi Tatmadaw’s well-documented pattern of detaining civilians in Rakhine following fighting The Government condemned the with the AA.v Brotherhood Alliance’s “terrorist acts," stating they will have negative consequences for the The attacks had serious economic peace process, although none of the repercussions, vastly reducing China-Myanmar Brotherhood Alliance members are signatories cross-border trade through the Muse and of the National Ceasefire Agreement and are Chinshwehaw town gates.vi The total trade not participating in the peace process.xii The value per day at the Muse border trade zone Tatmadaw claimed the attacks were in declined from $5 million to less than $700,000, retaliation for its seizure of MMK 16 billion while trade at Chinshwehaw, which totaled ($10.1 million) worth of methamphetamines in two to three million dollars per day, ceased Kutkai, Shan State, and MMK 5 billion ($3.2 altogether.vii million) worth of arms and drugs in Rathedaung, Rakhine State, on July 25 and Efforts are being made to repair the damage August 8, respectively.xiii The Brotherhood and resume trade. A temporary bridge has Alliance countered that it took action because already been constructed to replace the the Tatmadaw ignored the Alliance’s numerous severely damaged Gote Twin Bridge.viii warnings to stop attacking the AA.xiv Continued unrest in the area makes it unlikely that trade will return to previous levels once USAID.GOV AUGUST 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 3 The joint attacks by the AA, TNLA and IMPLICATIONS FOR THE BELT AND MNDAA signify a shift from a defensive to an ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI) offensive strategy against the Tatmadaw. The attacks and subsequent trade cutoff could According to a foreign advisor on pro- have significant implications on the progression democracy and human rights movements in of the BRI in Shan State. Political analyst Maung Myanmar, the change reflects these EAOs’ Maung Soe argues that the recent fighting realization that defensive tactics alone are not creates challenges for the rollout of the enough to push back the Tatmadaw. Chinese Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), as the Muse-Mandalay railway is Additionally, the formation of the Brotherhood planned to run through areas controlled by Alliance demonstrates the fluidity of EAOs’ EAOs where fighting is taking place.xvii alliances and military potential when they combine military capacity, and is a reminder of There is no evidence that EAOs are the potential for united counterattacks from deliberately targeting Chinese infrastructure other EAOs. The Tatmadaw now potentially projects. The Brotherhood Alliance maintains faces conflicts on three fronts, in north that its recent attacks were “necessary new (Kachin), western (Rakhine), and eastern (Shan counter-offensives” to “reduce military and Karen) Myanmar.xv pressure” in their regions, and are not deliberately targeting China’s projects or trade In contrast, sources close to the Karen routes in Myanmar.xviii Nonetheless, it is National Liberation Army (KNLA) suggest, that possible that China will continue to expand its the odds that Karen forces in southeastern engagement on peace issues in Myanmar and Myanmar will assume offensive action against the peace process to protect the rollout of the the Tatmadaw are small. According to a former CMEC. At a press conference in Beijing, China KNLA company commander, the official Karen “strongly condemned” the EAO attacks for National Union (KNU) position is to work with causing casualties and threatening peace and the Government through peace negotiations stability in Shan State and, shortly after the and avoid being seen as aiding EAOs engaged in attacks, met with the TNLA, AA and NMDAA active combat. A foreign military trainer in China’s Yunnan Province to urge them to working with the KNLA further suggested that stop fighting and calling the fighting Karen leaders are too “blinded by the Burmese “unacceptable.”xix [Government] offers and financial incentives” to take advantage of the “window of TA’ANG NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY opportunity” presented by the emergence of In addition to joining ranks with other EAOs as the Brotherhood Alliance. part of the Brotherhood Alliance, the
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