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Commercial Market and Research Projects Update: Tracking the Pandemic’S Impact

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Commercial Market and Research Projects Update: Tracking the Pandemic’S Impact Commercial Market and Research Projects Update: Tracking the Pandemic’s Impact Commercial Real Estate Research Advisory Board NAR Conference and Expo November 6, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 am Gay Cororaton Senior Economist, Director of Housing and Commercial Research [email protected] NAR New Research! Commercial Market Insights Reports https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-market-insights Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report ▪ https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook Commercial Sales Transactions Contracting at a Slower Pace in 2020 Q3 Quarterly Commercial Sales Quarterly Sales Volume Transactions of $2.5M or Over (YoY % Chg) $200 REALTOR® CRE Markets $180 $2.5+M Market $160 150% Billions $140 100% $120 $100 50% -3% $80 -5% $68.44 0% $60 -57% $40 $49.94 -50% -68% $20 -100% $- 2011 2017 2014 2013 2015 2012 2016 2019 2018 2010 2009 11Q3 13Q1 19Q1 16Q1 01Q1 10Q1 17Q3 14Q3 07Q1 04Q1 05Q3 02Q3 20Q3 08Q3 2020.Q1 2020.Q3 Sources: National Association of REALTORS®, Real Capital Analytics2020.Q2 Stronger Pickup in Sales of Garden Apartments Mid than Apartments Salesin ofGarden Pickup Stronger floors or more. or floors Multifamily Billions $20 $30 $40 $25 $35 $10 $15 $5 $- apartment 01Q1 01Q4 02… buildings that are three floors or less.Multifamily or floors three are buildings that 03… 04Q1 Sales Transactions of $2.5M or Over of$2.5MTransactions or Sales 04Q4 05… 06… 07Q1 Garden 07Q4 08… 09… 10Q1 Mid/Highrise 10Q4 11Q3 apartment 12Q2 13Q1 buildings that are four four are buildings that 13Q4 14Q3 15Q2 - High Rises in 2020 Q3 2020 in High Rises 16Q1 16Q4 17Q3 18Q2 19Q1 19Q4 $16 $16 $8 $8 Billions Q3 2020 CBDin Salesin Decline Office Sales Continued But in Suburban Recovery Slight $20 $30 $40 $25 $35 $45 $10 $15 $5 $- 01Q1 01Q4 02Q3 03Q2 04Q1 Sales Transactions of $2.5M or Over of$2.5MTransactions or Sales 04Q4 05Q3 06Q2 Office-CBD 07Q1 07Q4 08Q3 09Q2 10Q1 10Q4 Office-Sub 11Q3 12Q2 13Q1 13Q4 14Q3 15Q2 16Q1 16Q4 17Q3 18Q2 19Q1 19Q4 20Q3 Slight Uptick in Sales of Industrial Warehouse and Flex Properties in 2020 Q3 2020 in Properties Flex and Warehouse Industrial Sales of in Uptick Slight Billions $20 $30 $40 $25 $35 $10 $15 $5 $- 01Q1 01Q4 02Q3 03Q2 Sales Transactions of$2.5MTransactions ofOver Sales 04Q1 04Q4 05Q3 06Q2 07Q1 Flex 07Q4 08Q3 09Q2 Warehouse 10Q1 10Q4 11Q3 12Q2 13Q1 13Q4 14Q3 15Q2 16Q1 16Q4 17Q3 18Q2 19Q1 19Q4 20Q3 $11 $4 $4 Retail space consisting of multiple tenants and 30,000 square feet or more. feetsquare 30,000 and tenants of multiple consistingspace Retail meters.square feet/2,787square 30,000and/or under tenant single by a occupied usually space Retail Q3 2020 in Centers and Shops Retail Salesof in Uptick Slight Billions $20 $30 $25 $10 $15 $5 $- 01Q1 01Q4 02Q3 03Q2 04Q1 Over of of $2.5M Transactions Sales 04Q4 05Q3 06Q2 07Q1 Shops 07Q4 08Q3 09Q2 10Q1 Centers 10Q4 11Q3 12Q2 13Q1 13Q4 14Q3 15Q2 16Q1 16Q4 17Q3 18Q2 19Q1 19Q4 20Q3 REALTORS® Report Smaller Contraction in Sales Except Land and Industrial Y/Y % Chg. In Sales of REALTOR® Respondents 2020.Q2 2020.Q3 0% -1% 0% 0% -1% -1% -1% -2% -2% -3% -4% -4% -3% -5% -4% -6% -5% -5% -7% -7% -8% NAR Commercial Real Estate Quarterly Market Survey REALTORS® Reported More Residential, Recreational, and Industrial Land Sales (among respondents who had any land transaction* Land Sales of REALTORS® in 2020 Q3 by Property Type (YoY % Chg) 2020.Q2 2020.Q3 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -3% * A transaction where land accounts for 51% or more of the value of the transaction REALTORS® Reported a Decline in Leasing Volume Except for Industrial Space Leasing Volume pe (YoY % Chg) 2020.Q2 2020.Q3 2% 0.2% 0.4% 0% -2% -2% -2% -2% -4% -4% -6% -5% -4% -8% -10% -9% -12% Source: Cushman and Wakefield (office, retail, industrial) and US Census Bureau (multifamily) Major Cities Suffer Biggest Loss of Office Occupancy Net Absorption Office Space in 2020 Q2-Q3 (7,666,790) New York (6,392,530) San Francisco (4,208,243) Los Angeles (3,884,791) Dallas (3,123,938) Boston (2,960,188) Houston (2,149,715) Oakland/East Bay (2,116,821) Austin (2,071,346) Denver (1,977,569) Phoenix (1,904,593) New Jersey (1,634,955) Seattle (1,557,559) San Jose (1,222,742) Chicago (1,059,676) Atlanta (573,095) Washington DC (542,950) Rochester NY (51,067) Roanoke (17,778) Philadelphia (193) Indianapolis 59,711 Raleigh 93,725 Minneapolis 254,534 Boise Source: Cushman and Wakefield Biggest Gainers of Industrial Space Occupancy Net Absorption of Industrial Space in 2020 Q2-Q3 PA I-81/I-78 Distribution Corridor 14,165,948 Inland Empire 11,714,006 Dallas Fort Worth 11,271,338 Chicago 8,402,463 Houston 7,035,498 Atlanta 6,018,101 Phoenix 5,737,080 New Jersey Central and Northern 5,407,574 Indianapolis 5,226,025 Columbus, OH 4,114,429 Kansas 4,094,003 Louisville 4,081,588 Savannah 3,876,049 Nashsville 3,289,598 Salt Lake City 2,047,512 Orlando 1,899,168 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 Source: Cushman and Wakefield Higher Vacancy Rates Across All Property Types Except in Industrial Sector Vacancy Rates 14.40% 13.70% 7.10% 6.80% 6.40% 5.30%5.30% 5.70% Office Retail Industrial Multifamily 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 Source: Cushman and Wakefield (office, retail, industrial) and US Census Bureau (multifamily) Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic Percent of respondents What changes are you seeing in the following areas relative to January 2020 (pre-coronavirus who answered condition)? "More" 2020.Q3 Working from home/alternating/staggered office work schedules 83% Investment in workspace redesigns to increase sanitation, hygiene, and social distancing (plexiglass, cubicles, air filtration,etc.) 76% Tenants with rent concessions 65% Companies leasing or moving into offices with smaller square footage due to working from home 62% Companies that pay for expenses related to working -from-home (broadband internet, office supplies, etc.) 60% Short-term office leases or use service agreements (2 years or less ) 59% Tenants with missed, late, or partial office, retail, or industrial space rent payments 54% Tenants with missed, late, or partial multifamily residential rent payments 53% Repurposing of vacant malls 52% Demand for flexible/co-working office space from individuals (gig workers, independent contractors, etc.) 51% Companies obtaining business interruption insurance 50% Headquarters with satellite offices 48% Use of work data analytics to track mobility and use of office spaces 45% Sales or leasing transactions in suburban area vs. central business district 43% Demand for flexible/co-working office space from enterprise clients/large firms 43% Offices being charged higher common area maintenance expenses related to safely and sanitation measures 42% Co-tenancy clauses for retail properties 37% Companies that offer transportation services/shuttles for their workers 21% Source: 2020 Q3 Commercial Real Estate Market Survey Decline in Common Area Maintenance Expenses from One Year Ago Y/Y Percent Increase in Common Area Maintenance Fees in 2020 Q3 -0.1% Industrial: Warehouse -0.2% Industrial: Flex -0.2% Retail: Mall -0.2% Retail: Free-standing -0.2% Office Class A -0.3% Apartment Class A -0.3% Apartment Class B/C -0.3% Office Class B/C -0.3% Retail: Strip Center Source: 2020 Q3 Commercial Real Estate Market Survey On Average, REALTORS® Reported Little Difference Between Appraisal Values and REALTORS® Assessment of Property Values Average Difference Between Lender Appaisal Values and REALTORS® Assessment of Market Values 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% Source: 2020 Q3 Commercial Real Estate Market Survey How Vacant Malls are Being Repurposed How are vacant malls being repurposed in your market? Select all that apply. Mixed-use (residential , retail, office) 38.35% Industrial use: Distribution/fulfillment center 23.49% Health care/hospital/medical 20.73% Church 20.37% Office space 17.43% Self-storage 16.15% Multifamily/residential 10.83% College/university office 8.81% Government building (office, police precinct) 6.97% Health armory 4.04% Sports stadium 2.20% Other 24.77% Source: 2020 Q3 Commercial Real Estate Market Survey New Research: Metro/City Data Report ❖ NAR Research acquired Cushman and Wakefield metro-level market office and industrial data on Inventory, absorption, vacancy rates, leasing volume, and rent >> COMMERCIAL MARKET REPORTS showing economic and commercial statistics (quarterly) ❖ NAR Research is working with Data Science Team to generate metro-level leasing and sales data from RPR (especially on retail) to supplement Cushman and Wakefield office and industrial data .
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