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Plan Assumptions and Previous Studies SECTION 3 Plan Assumptions and Previous Studies SECTION 3 Plan Assumptions and Previous Studies This section of the report presents the assumptions used in the planning process and an overview of prior studies that are relevant to the Will County 2030 Transportation Plan. Given the uncertainty of the future, the planning assumptions provide the basis for plan development and are implicit in the decision making process. These studies were referenced in order to incorporate previous planning efforts. Generally, these previous studies provided context and background for the Will County 2030 Transportation Plan. The potential projects list used to evaluate transportation needs in Will County was partially developed from these previous planning efforts. Available published documents were also used as a source of information about the proposed South Suburban Airport and the former Joliet Arsenal. 3.1 Planning Assumptions A set of reasonable assumptions were developed to address some of the uncertainties about future needs and conditions. These planning level assumptions were used to define input for the 2030 Transportation Plan. These assumptions also help to define what the effect would be on the plan should future trends dramatically depart from that which is currently and can be reasonably assumed to occur. • The 2030 forecasts serve as the planning horizon for the study and were based on year 2030 forecasts for population and employment as endorsed by NIPC, September 2003, and the action-oriented forecast developed for this study (Section 6.2.2). The Will County traffic demand model with the socioeconomic forecasts will serve as a basis for developing the future forecasted traffic. • The 2030 socioeconomic forecasts generally reflect projected land use activity from the municipalities throughout Will County. In addition, the forecasts also consider regional transportation improvements. These regional improvements are linked to the socioeconomic forecasts by relating mobility and accessibility factors that the improvements represent. • Overall demographics and income levels will not change dramatically relative to the rest of the Chicago metropolitan area. As an example, car ownership trends by household would remain relatively consistent by demographic group and trip generation rates would not change significantly from rates referenced in the 1990 Household Survey data, which provided the most complete and updated socioeconomic information required by the travel demand model. This data was supplemented with the 2000 Journey to Work information. • Public transportation funding and ridership will continue to exist at least at current levels of service. This means that the available service—Metra, Pace, and local public transit (area dial-a-ride and paratransit)—will continue. As such, it is anticipated that MKE\081190001 MARCH 2009 3-1 SECTION 3—PLAN ASSUMPTIONS AND PREVIOUS STUDIES WILL COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN public transportation will continue to capture a similar share of the future travel demand as it does now. • Federal, state, and local revenues will remain somewhat constant. This would imply that the ability to finance transportation improvements would be similar to the County’s existing funding levels. If Will County chose to support additional revenue sources such as impact fees or a local option motor fuel tax, then the available funding would increase accordingly. • A vehicle volume to road capacity ratio of 0.66 was the planning performance criterion used in this study. Drivers on facilities operating at a volume to capacity ratio greater than 0.66 would experience reductions in travel speed and at intersections; the influence of congestion and resultant delay are noticeable. Congested segments within this study are those with a volume to capacity ratio greater than 0.66. 3.2 Review of Previous Studies The following provides a brief overview of previously completed plans that include a transportation element relevant to Will County. The studies provide background information that can be drawn upon when completing the 2030 transportation plan and to assist with defining future development within Will County, especially with regards to the redevelopment of the Joliet Arsenal and the South Suburban Airport (SSA). 3.2.1 2020 Transportation Framework Plan, Will County, 2000 This is a multimodal long-range transportation plan that is an amalgamation of elements from other agency plans, with those identified in the transportation study. The recommended plan, therefore, contains projects initiated by other agencies; projects that are new additions and are not included in other agency plans; and combinations of the two. The plan was developed for the horizon year 2020. It was intended to provide a framework for short- and long-range transportation decisions and related land use activities. The 2020 plan was oriented toward satisfying countywide travel demand by using appropriate connections between municipalities. The plan included considerations for the greater regional influence of the Chicago metropolitan area both in land use development and regional connections such as the interstate system. The plan also considered implementation issues such as financial and physical limitation in that these limitations would affect the further development of the recommended projects. Considerations also included previous multi-modal studies and their effect on Will County. The recommended plan includes an extensive list of transportation projects throughout the county for regional roads (including interstates), arterial streets, intersection realignments, corridors for further study, public transportation, and non-motorized facilities. The plan is to be examined as a system-based approach to the transportation needs. A staging program suggested in the 2020 Transportation Framework Plan resulted in the selection of high priority projects. The selection process was based on the identification of five strategies and a determination of how each proposed project ranked relative to these strategies. Further study would be needed to determine project timelines based on estimations of financial resources. 3-2 MARCH 2009 MKE\081190001 WILL COUNTY 2030 TRANSPORTATION PLAN SECTION 3—PLAN ASSUMPTIONS AND PREVIOUS STUDIES 3.2.2 Land Resource Management Plan, Will County, 2002 This plan was prepared in 2002 by Will County pursuant to the state’s “Local Land Resource Management Planning Act.” It is the result of an 18-month effort that involved hundreds of participants and extensive public involvement. The Policy Gateway element of the plan creates a framework for managing growth. It rests on the premise that growth in Will County will be accommodated, but that negative impacts of growth should be minimized and mitigated. Also within the Policy Gateway section, the Will County 2020 Transportation Framework Plan was adopted by reference with the Land Resource Management Plan. Population and employment forecasts lie at the core of land demand forecasts. These forecasts are translated into land demand using certain assumptions for household size, density of development, and floor and land space per employee. Community workshops were held to consider community values that appear to represent an accurate depiction of what is most important to the community. These prioritized issues were then grouped into five community planning themes, which serve as the organizing force behind the plan. These are growth and community character, intergovernmental cooperation, open space and environmental preservation, farming and agriculture, and infrastructure. Transportation is included under the infrastructure category. The goals, as they relate to transportation, call for provision of roads to serve new urban development. They also specify that decisions about the location of new development will be made, in part, based on the ability to efficiently provide infrastructure (including transportation). It is also a stated goal that the County is served by a coordinated and multi- modal transportation system. In order to accomplish these goals, the County will continue to pursue implementation of the previously adopted 2020 Transportation Framework Plan and recognize the critical importance of the South Suburban Airport. The plan also included development of a Forms and Concepts Handbook. This is the future land use element of the Land Resource Management Plan. It is structured around “Development Forms” and “Development Use Concepts.” Future preservation of open space is also a central theme of the Land Resource Management Plan. The Open Space element of the Land Resource Management Plan sets forth policies and strategies designed to establish a permanently protected network of open spaces as Will County continues to grow. 3.2.3 Shared Path 2030, Chicago Area Transportation Study, 2003 Shared Path 2030 is the Chicago Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) for northeastern Illinois developed by CATS. The 2030 RTP identifies the region’s transportation challenges, potential solutions, and provides recommendations on how to invest in improving the transportation future of the region. The RTP identifies improvement strategies for the roadway system, public transportation, and accommodations for pedestrians and bicyclists. The RTP is a long-range regional plan to coordinate planning activities across the Chicago metropolitan region for a horizon year of 2030. The RTP includes three basic goals: maintain the current systems, improve how the overall system operates,
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