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Telecom & Technology Hostopia.com Inc. (H-T, C$6.00) May 23, 2007 Member CIPF Poised, Positioned, and Ready to Succeed INITIATING COVERAGE: SECTOR OUTPERFORM Target Price: C$8.50 Risk: MODERATE Investment Brief: We are initiating coverage on Hostopia with a Sector Outperform rating and C$8.50 target. 2007-1012 forecast revenue growth at 22% (cagr) is driven by end mar- ket growth forecast at 15%, greater penetration of existing users and conservatively forecast new client wins. Hostopia is well-positioned with low-cost, award-winning programming capabilities and marquee client lists in N. America (Verizon, Covad, Bell, TELUS, Rogers) and now Europe (British Telecom, BT Ireland, Perlico). Hostopia boasts a proven 80% suc- cess rate on RFPs that represent over half its revenues. New product/service launches are poised to accelerate end user growth with legacy and new clients. We believe investors discount the significance of recent wins and view the overhang of insider sales post the six month IPO lock-up as a short term negative. We believe, revenue traction from British Telecom (BT) and other recent wins over the next 2-3 quarters should materially change investor expectations and in turn Hos- topia’s valuation. We believe insider sales are limited and an opportunity to increase liquidity. Poised – The end market for webhosting is forecast to grow at 15% per annum. Positioned – Marquee clients ensure sales access while a long term relationship with Geeks for Less (GFL) in the Ukraine secures low cost, award winning programming. Competitive intensity for client’s end users strengthens Hostopia’s wholesale model. Repeat – History supports execution strength and shareholder focus. Management suc- cessfully built and sold Internet Direct, an independent ISP, for $200M in 1999. Haywood Securities Inc. Hostopia trades at 5x’s forward EV/EBITDA vs. peers at 12x/8x’s 2007/08. Current cash/ share is $2.69 with 5 year FCF forecast at $2.43/share. Our $9.05 DCF is based on an 11.5% discount rate and 4.25x EBITDA terminal valuation (or 1.7% terminal growth rate). Telecom & Technology & Telecom Please see pages 36 - 39 for full rating structures, important disclosures, Source: www.Hostopia.com risk parameters and Rob Goff, CFA (416-507-2740, [email protected]) disclaimers. Dean McPherson (416-507-2433, [email protected]) Hostopia.com Inc. TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .....................................................................................................................................................................2 POISED, POSITIONED, AND READY TO SUCCEED .....................................................................................................................................2 INVESTMENT THESIS .........................................................................................................................................................................3 POSITIVES ...............................................................................................................................................................................................4 1. Senior management’s expertise and reputations present a critical advantage highlighted by contacted clients. ........................4 2. Growth to date Highlights Strong Execution, Merits of Marquee Client Strategy. ......................................................................5 3. Sustainable Product Advantage. ...................................................................................................................................................6 4. Business Model Yields Low Financial Risk, Leading ROICs........................................................................................................7 5. Strong Market Growth Projections...............................................................................................................................................7 6. Depth of Client Relations..............................................................................................................................................................8 RISKS......................................................................................................................................................................................................9 FINANCIALS.........................................................................................................................................................................................11 FISCAL 2007 .........................................................................................................................................................................................11 Q4 FY07 Results ..............................................................................................................................................................................11 FY07 Results ....................................................................................................................................................................................11 LONGER TERM EXPECTATIONS .............................................................................................................................................................11 Outlook 2008, 5 year CAGR. ...........................................................................................................................................................11 Tracking End User, ARPUU ...............................................................................................................................................................13 VALUATION.........................................................................................................................................................................................14 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ....................................................................................................................................................................14 RELATIVE VALUATION .........................................................................................................................................................................15 COMPANY OVERVIEW.....................................................................................................................................................................16 OVERVIEW............................................................................................................................................................................................16 BUSINESS MODEL .................................................................................................................................................................................16 PROPRIETARY SOFTWARE DELIVERY PLATFORM .................................................................................................................................17 SCALABLE BUSINESS MODEL WITH HIGH OPERATING LEVERAGE........................................................................................................17 FACILITIES............................................................................................................................................................................................18 LICENSE AND OTHER AGREEMENTS .....................................................................................................................................................18 ACQUISITIONS ......................................................................................................................................................................................18 PRODUCTS AND SERVICES ....................................................................................................................................................................19 INDUSTRY OVERVIEW.....................................................................................................................................................................21 WEB HOSTING VALUE CHAIN...............................................................................................................................................................21 U.S. WEB HOSTING MARKET ...............................................................................................................................................................23 UK WEB HOSTING MARKET.................................................................................................................................................................24 TRENDS AND ISSUES .............................................................................................................................................................................25 OUTLOOK .............................................................................................................................................................................................26 APPENDICES...................................................................................................................................................................................... 27 APPENDIX I: FINANCIAL STATEMENTS – I/S......................................................................................................................................27 APPENDIX II: KEY MANAGEMENT.....................................................................................................................................................30
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