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A Case of Sadar Block in Pratapgarh District of Uttar

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A Case of Sadar Block in Pratapgarh District of Uttar Research Article Int J Environ Sci Nat Res Volume 10 Issue 4 - April 2018 Copyright © All rights are reserved by Ashutosh Mishra DOI: 10.19080/IJESNR.2018.10.555791 Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall Patterns of Rajasthan Ashutosh Mishra* Senior Research Fellow, Geography Department, University of Allahabad, India Submission: April 04, 2018; Published: April 27, 2018 *Corresponding author: Ashutosh Mishra, Senior Research Fellow, Geography Department, University of Allahabad, India, Tel: Email: Abstract aggravatePresent its paperclimatic examines harshness, the andtemperature thus, can andadversely rainfall impact profile the of physical,Rajasthan. as This well largestas economic Indian land state scapes. is known The foranalysis extreme reveals temperatures, that most water scarcity, scanty rains and frequent droughts. It is feared that any significant change in temperature and rainfall properties of the state can recorded a cooling trend. Interestingly, the warming is more prominent in the western part of the state as compared to its eastern part. As for asof therainfall districts is concerned, in the state it has have recorded witnessed an increase a significant for most warming of districts, during however, last century. the districtsThe districts lying ofnear Sikar Tropic and ofDausa, Cancer on have the other become hand, drier. have Keywords: Climate change; desertification; ARIMA model; Regression; F value Introduction the state are namely the western desert, the Aravali hills, eastern Climate is the most vital element of the nature. It shapes both plain and south-east plateau region. The great Thar desert, the physical as well as biological kingdoms. Human evolution, which is expanded over 58 percent land of the state, and is also in itself, is an outcome of changing climatic scenes. Climate is the eighteenth world largest deserts in terms of area, constitutes so fundamental that it determines man`s mode of life, his habits the western part of the state while the Aravali hills divide the and habitats [1]. Climate is a cyclical process. It has changed in state into two distinct geographic regions: the western arid the past and will keep changing in future too. However today, and eastern semi-arid region. The tropic of Cancer touches the climate change has become the greatest concern for humanity southern tip of the state. The average temperature of the state as all the human developments and movements are subjected swings between 8 °C and 28 °C in winter and 25 °C and 46 °C in to suitability and stability of the climate. Therefore, to sense summer seasons while the average rainfall varies between 65 cm. the future climatic scenes, and to keep us ready for tomorrow`s in southern part to 10 cm. in western Thar region. Rajasthan is change, it is essential to study the past. Temperature and rainfall known for its extreme temperatures that make it one of the most climatologically sensitive states of India [3-9]. It is highly prone change in their properties can pose a great stress on agriculture, are two most vital components of climate, and any significant to drought and about 67 percent land of the state is affected by vegetation, habitat and biodiversity of a place. And, therefore, measuring pattern and trend of these two climate determinants renewal as it holds only 1 percent of the total water resources is always important for regional development design. Present desertification. Precipitation is the only source of ground water of the country. Thus, water is the major challenge for the state. study attempts to analyses the district level temperature and Most of the rivers are seasonal, and Chambal and Mahi are the rainfall patterns of Indian state of Rajasthan [2]. The study also tries to sense the climatic scenario likely to emerge in near about 22 percent mineral produce of the country. While most of future. only perennial rivers flowing in the state. The state contributes the mining reserves are in forest regions, loss of forest cover due The Study Area to mining activities, is, thus, causing a great threat to ecological Rajasthan is the largest state of the India. It lies in between sustainability of the state. 23°30’ and 30°11’ North latitudes and 69° 29’ and 78° 17’ East Data Source and Methods longitudes and is extended over more than 10 percent land of Present study is based on 112 years (1901-2012) district the country. The state is known for its diversity and unique level temperature and rainfall records of Rajasthan obtained geographical features. The four major physiographic regions of from India Meteorological Department. The correlation values Int J Environ Sci Nat Res 10(4): IJESNR.MS.ID.555791 (2018) 00126 International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources of temperature and rainfall with time series were mapped and Correlation analysis of annual average temperature with the data was regressed to know the variance. The ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model was used to cast Bikaner, Jodhpur, Banswara, Dungarpur, Barmer, Udaipur, Jalor, time series shows that fifteen districts of the state- Jaisalmer, the future trends of temperature and rainfall. Jhalawar, Sirohi, Chittaurgarh, Rajsamand, Baran, Pali and Kota, District Level Temperature and Rainfall Trends of Rajasthan have recorded very significant warming, while two districts- at centennial time scale (Figure 1). The districts Sikar and Dausa Bhilwara and Bundi, have witnessed significant warming trend Annual total rainfall pattern shows that Banswara, Dungarpur, have shown a cooling trend although this trend is insignificant. Jhalawar, Sirohi and Udaipur have recorded less rainfall than normal while rest 27 districts of the state have received more 2). The data of Pratapgarh district was not available. Regression rainfall, although all correlation values are insignificant (Figure result of temperature and rainfall series shows that due to too much noise in the data, R2 values are very weak (noise is clearly visible in temperature and rainfall versus time scatter plots), however, temperature–time series association is positive and significant for 17 districts having F value above 4 (Table 1). For Figure 1: Centennial Temperature Trend of Rajasthan. rainfall series, F value is weak in all cases; hence no significant Table 1: Regression Results for Temperature and Rainfall Patterns. trend was identified [10-15]. Regression result for Regression result for Correlation between Correlation between S. No. District temperature series rainfall series temperature and time series (r) rainfall and time series (r) R2 F R2 F 1 Ajmer 0.01 0.01 0.99 0.09 0.01 0.82 2 Alwar 0.001 0.0001 0.0001 0.19 0.04 3.75 3 Banswara 0.45 0.22 27.71** - 0.07 0.01 0.55 4 Baran 0.30 0.09 10.16** 0.02 0.001 0.05 5 Barmer 0.40 0.16 18.89** 0.03 0.001 0.09 6 Bharatpur 0.04 0.002 0.18 0.15 0.02 2.16 7 Bhilwara 0.24 0.06 6.26* 0.06 0.004 0.38 8 Bikaner 0.49 0.24 34.28** 0.04 0.002 0.18 9 Bundi 0.20 0.04 4.13* 0.06 0.003 0.35 10 Chittaurgarh 0.33 0.11 12.57** 0.001 0.0001 0.0001 11 Churu 0.11 0.02 1.28 0.07 0.01 0.50 12 Dausa - 0.05 0.003 0.29 0.13 0.02 1.61 13 Dhaulpur 0.14 0.02 1.85 0.11 0.01 1.17 14 Dungarpur 0.43 0.19 22.73** - 0.11 0.01 1.21 15 Ganganagar 0.19 0.04 3.73 0.06 0.003 0.30 16 Hanumangarh 0.15 0.02 2.37 0.11 0.01 1.30 17 Jaipur 0.02 0.0001 0.03 0.16 0.03 2.85 18 Jaisalmer 0.59 0.34 57.90** 0.02 0.0001 0.05 19 Jalor 0.36 0.13 14.49** 0.004 0.0001 0.002 20 Jhalawar 0.35 0.12 14.15** - 0.01 0.0001 0.01 21 Jhunjhunun 0.01 0.0001 0.009 0.15 0.02 2.35 22 Jodhpur 0.48 0.23 33.39** 0.06 0.003 0.37 23 Karauli 0.10 0.01 0.97 0.12 0.01 1.18 24 Kota 0.26 0.07 6.98** 0.04 0.001 0.14 25 Nagaur 0.11 0.01 1.24 0.10 0.01 1.09 How to cite this article: Ashutosh M. Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall Patterns of Rajasthan. Int J Environ Sci Nat Res. 2018; 10(4): 555791. DOI: 0127 10.19080/IJESNR.2018.10.555791 International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources 26 Pali 0.29 0.08 9.114** 0.03 0.001 0.10 27 Rajsamand 0.31 0.10 10.658** 0.003 0.0001 0.001 28 SawaiMadhopur 0.08 0.01 0.651 0.10 0.01 1.05 29 Sikar - 0.02 0.000 0.040 0.16 0.024 2.45 30 Sirohi 0.35 0.12 14.01** - 0.04 0.002 0.20 31 Tonk 0.04 0.002 0.16 0.09 0.01 0.81 32 Udaipur 0.36 0.13 14.94** - 0.08 0.01 0.58 **: p<0.01, *: p<0.05. Figure 5. Figure 2: Centennial Rainfall Trend. Figure 6. Figure 3. Figure 7. Temperature and rainfall patterns of Rajasthan at district level were examined and the trends were modelled by the Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Centennial temperature pattern of Ajmer shows no significant forecast line predicts no warming or cooling trend in near change (departure from the fit line) in the variability and the future (Figure 3).
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