InternationalInternational MigrationMigration inin thethe RussianRussian FederationFederation
Sergey V. Ryazantsev Leonid L. Rybakovsky
SocialSocial DemographyDemography DepartmentDepartment ofof thethe SocioSocio ResearchResearch InstituteInstitute ofof thethe RussianRussian AcademyAcademy ofof Sciences,Sciences,
www.ispr.ru E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] --PoliticalPolitical 149000 The Dynamics of the Population Size in the148000 Russian Federation in 1991-2004, thousands
147000
146000
145000
144000
143000
142000
141000
1991 992 1 93 19 1994 5 199 The data on 2003 and 2004 were corrected1996 by 7the national statistics after the population The data on 2003 and 2004 were corrected by199 the national statistics after the population census in 2002 (the unregisted migrants1998 were take into account) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 4 200 The Correlation of the Indices of the General Growth (Decline) and the Migration and Natural Growth (Decline) of the Population in the Russian Federation in
19921000-2004, thousands 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 -600 -800 -1000 -1200
The General Growth (Decline) The Migration Growth The Natual Growth (Decline) Migration for the permanent residence. Migration Growth of Russia in the International Migration in 1995-2002 According to the Current Record, thousands600
500
400
300
200
100
0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 The Data of Current Records The Data of the Recount after the Population Census in 2002 Migration for Permanent Residence. Migration Growth of Russia in the Exchange with the CIS Countries and Other States, thousands 1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Migration Growth with the CIS Countries and the Baltic States Migration Growth with Other Countries Migration for permanent residence. The Net Migration of Russia with the CIS Countries and the Baltic1200 States in the Category of Able-Bodied Migrants, thousands 1000
800 1028,4
600
400
266,5 200 195,4 168,3 150 123,7 75,7 48,8 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1997- 2003 Migration for Permanent Residence. Migration Potential for Russia in the CIS Countries and the Baltic States, thousands
Country Migration Potential % for Russia Total 3.000-4.000 100,0 Kazakhstan 1.000 25,0-33,0 Central Asia 500 12,5-17,0 Georgia, Azerbaijan, 100-150 3,5-3,8 Armenia The Ukraine 600-700 17,5-20,0 Moldova 100 3,5 The Baltic States … … Belarus … … Migration for permanent residence. Migration140 Exchange of Russia with Other Countries (“The Old Abroad”) , thousands 120
100
80
60
40
20
0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Emigration Immigration Migration for Permanent Residence. The Basic Parameters of the International Migration in Russia in 1989-2004, thousands
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Immigration Emigration Migration for permanent residence. The Basic Countries of Emigration from Russia in 2004, people
35000 31876
30000
25000
20000
15000 people
10000
2919 5000 1733
0 Germany The USA Israel Migration for permanent residence. Other Countries of Emigration from Russia in 2004, people
1000 910 900 783 800 700 600 500 400 372 people 300 240 190 193 200 167 160 165 157 154 165 149 158 100 0 Italy Spain China France Finland Greece Canada Czechia Sweden Norway Portugal Bolgaria Australia Great Britain ““BabyBaby--business“business“ inin RussiaRussia
EveryEvery yearyear approximatelyapproximately 44 -- 55 thousandthousand RussianRussian childrenchildren areare legallylegally adoptedadopted byby foreignersforeigners andand areare takentaken outout ofof Russia.Russia. InIn 20042004 thisthis figurefigure waswas 6.56.5 thousandthousand RussianRussian children.children. InIn totaltotal 6060 thousandthousand childrenchildren werewere adoptedadopted andand takentaken outout ofof RussiaRussia byby foreignersforeigners duringduring thethe lastlast tenten years,years, includingincluding 4040 thousandthousand takentaken outout byby thethe USAUSA citizens.citizens. TheThe EmigrationEmigration ofof WomenWomen fromfrom thethe RussianRussian FederationFederation
According the latest data, there are about 1 thousand marriage agencies which offer the intermediary services for Russian brides.
According to approximate estimations, 10 - 15 thousand Russian women annually go abroad on fiancée visas.
It is possible to assume that no less than 1 million girls from the CIS countries (Russia, the Ukraine, Moldova and other countries) work in the sector of sex-services and entertainments in the countries of Europe, including 300-400 thousand Russians. Temporary Labour Migration. The Scales of Legal Labour Migration to Russia (The Federal Migration Service Data), thousand 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 The General Labour Migration The Migation from the CIS Countries and the Baltic States The Migration fom the Countries of " the Old Aboad" Temporary Labour Migration. TheThe DistributionDistribution ofof ForeignForeign LabourLabour MigrantsMigrants AttractedAttracted toto RussiaRussia inin 2004,2004, %%
4,5 4,2 2,1 4,8 37 11,1
25,8
Building Wholesaling and Retailing, Catering
Industy Agriculture Transport and Communications The General Commerce
Forestry Temporary Labour Migration. TheThe LegalLegal LabourLabour MigrationMigration toto RussiaRussia inin 20042004,, thousandthousand 120 108,6 100 94,1 80
60
40
20 23,3 22,7 17 14,7 9,8 0 6,1 5 4,4
e n a n ai in a a r h st v ia a k C i o n e n U ik ld e r ja y j o m o i e m n a r K a rk a ta T M A rb u N s e T t i z ie ek A V zb U Temporary Labour Migration. The Number of Labour Migrants from the CIS Countries (Legal and Illegal), Working Abroad at a Time in 2002, thousands
Country Minimum Maximum Russia 250 1,500 Armenia 800 1.500 Azerbaijan 1.500 2.000 Georgia 100 1.000 Moldova 600 700 Tajikistan 200 250 The Ukraine 2.000 3.000 Uzbekistan … 500 Temporary Labour Migration. The Sums of Transfers of the Labour Migrants to Some CIS Countries from Abroad in 2000 Country The World Bank estimation Official transfers (remittance) and unofficial (private) transfers estimations according to other sources Total, million The share in the Total, million The share in the Us Dollars Gross National Us Dollars Gross National Product of the Product of the country,% country,% Russia*** 740,0 0,2 … … Armenia 15,0 0,8 300,0 8,0-9,0 Azerbaijan 57,0 1,1 … …
Georgia 95,0 3,1 … ...
Moldova 3,0 0,3 150,0-170,0 4,3-4,8
Kazakhstan 64,0 0,3 … …
Kyrgyzstan 2,0 0,2 … … Notes: * - the data of The Central Bank of Armenia; ** -the data of The Strategic Research and Reform Center of the Republic of Moldova; *** - the data of The Bank of Russia (the results of 2002). TheThe BasicBasic DirectionsDirections ofof thethe MigrationMigration PolicyPolicy inin thethebe,be, RussianRussian atat least,least, nonoFederationFederation lessless thanthan thethe atat thethe PresentPresent StageStage:: decline;decline; •• - the attraction of immigrants for permanent residence from the states of “the new abroad” to replace the natural The net migration should population decline in the countryscalesscales. The ofof net thethe migration naturalnatural populationpopulation should
•• - the attraction of the labour migrants from the countries of “the new and the old abroad” to the industries and regions according to the economic and geopolitical interests of Russia. TheThe volumesvolumes ofof labourlabour migrationmigration shouldshould covercover thethe deficitdeficit inin manpowermanpower onon aa labourlabour market;market; •• - the settling of the inner Russian migrants and immigrants from the category of compatriots, and also forming the resident population in geopolitically important regions of the country.East;East; FirstFirst ofof all,all, inin thethe frontierfrontier
•• - the reduction of high-qualified staff emigration from the country for permanent residence abroad. areasareas ofof SiberiaSiberia andand thethe FarFar InternationalInternational MigrationMigration inin thethe RussianRussian FederationFederation
Sergey V. Ryazantsev Leonid L. Rybakovsky
SocialSocial DemographyDemography DepartmentDepartment ofof thethe SocioSocio ResearchResearch InstituteInstitute ofof thethe RussianRussian AcademyAcademy ofof Sciences,Sciences,
www.ispr.ru E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] --PoliticalPolitical