InternationalInternational MigrationMigration inin thethe RussianRussian FederationFederation Sergey V. Ryazantsev Leonid L. Rybakovsky Social Demography Department of the Socio-Political Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow www.ispr.ru E-mail: [email protected] The Dynamics of the Population Size in the Russian Federation in 1991-2004, thousands 149000 148000 147000 146000 145000 144000 143000 142000 141000 5 7 4 93 991 992 9 994 99 996 99 998 999 000 001 002 003 00 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 The data on 2003 and 2004 were corrected by the national statistics after the population census in 2002 (the unregisted migrants were take into account) The Correlation of the Indices of the General Growth (Decline) and the Migration and Natural Growth (Decline) of the Population in the Russian Federation in 1992-2004, thousands 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200 The General Growth (Decline) The Migration Growth The Natual Growth (Decline) Migration for the permanent residence. Migration Growth of Russia in the International Migration in 1995-2002 According to the Current Record, thousands 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 The Data of Current Records The Data of the Recount after the Population Census in 2002 Migration for Permanent Residence. Migration Growth of Russia in the Exchange with the CIS Countries and Other States, thousands 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Migration Growth with the CIS Countries and the Baltic States Migration Growth with Other Countries Migration for permanent residence. The Net Migration of Russia with the CIS Countries and the Baltic States in the Category of Able-Bodied Migrants, thousands 1200 1028,4 1000 800 600 400 266,5 195,4 168,3 200 150 123,7 75,7 48,8 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1997- 2003 Migration for Permanent Residence. Migration Potential for Russia in the CIS Countries and the Baltic States, thousands Country Migration Potential % for Russia Total 3.000-4.000 100,0 Kazakhstan 1.000 25,0-33,0 Central Asia 500 12,5-17,0 Georgia, Azerbaijan, 100-150 3,5-3,8 Armenia The Ukraine 600-700 17,5-20,0 Moldova 100 3,5 The Baltic States … … Belarus … … Migration for permanent residence. Migration Exchange of Russia with Other Countries (“The Old Abroad”) , thousands 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Emigration Immigration Migration for Permanent Residence. The Basic Parameters of the International Migration in Russia in 1989-2004, thousands 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Immigration Emigration Migration for permanent residence. The Basic Countries of Emigration from Russia in 2004, people 35000 31876 30000 25000 20000 people 15000 10000 2919 5000 1733 0 Germany The USA Israel Migration for permanent residence. Other Countries of Emigration from Russia in 2004, people 1000 910 900 783 800 700 600 500 372 people 400 240 300 190 193 200 167 160 165 157 154 165 149 158 100 0 Italy Spain China France Finland Greece Canada Czechia Sweden Norway Portugal Bolgaria Australia Great Britain ““BabyBaby--business“business“ inin RussiaRussia EveryEvery yearyear approximatelyapproximately 44 -- 55 thousandthousand RussianRussian childrenchildren areare legallylegally adoptedadopted byby foreignersforeigners andand areare takentaken outout ofof Russia.Russia. InIn 20042004 thisthis figurefigure waswas 6.56.5 thousandthousand RussianRussian children.children. InIn totaltotal 6060 thousandthousand childrenchildren werewere adoptedadopted andand takentaken outout ofof RussiaRussia byby foreignersforeigners duringduring thethe lastlast tenten years,years, includingincluding 4040 thousandthousand takentaken outout byby thethe USAUSA citizens.citizens. TheThe EmigrationEmigration ofof WomenWomen fromfrom thethe RussianRussian FederationFederation According the latest data, there are about 1 thousand marriage agencies which offer the intermediary services for Russian brides. According to approximate estimations, 10 - 15 thousand Russian women annually go abroad on fiancée visas. It is possible to assume that no less than 1 million girls from the CIS countries (Russia, the Ukraine, Moldova and other countries) work in the sector of sex-services and entertainments in the countries of Europe, including 300-400 thousand Russians. Temporary Labour Migration. The Scales of Legal Labour Migration to Russia (The Federal Migration Service Data), thousand 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 The General Labour Migration The Migation from the CIS Countries and the Baltic States The Migration fom the Countries of " the Old Aboad" Temporary Labour Migration. TheThe DistributionDistribution ofof ForeignForeign LabourLabour MigrantsMigrants AttractedAttracted toto RussiaRussia inin 2004,2004, %% 4,5 4,2 2,1 4,8 37 11,1 25,8 Building Wholesaling and Retailing, Catering Industy Agriculture Transport and Communications The General Commerce Forestry Temporary Labour Migration. The Legal Labour Migration to Russia in thousand 120 100 108,6 80 60 94,1 40 20 0 Ukraine 23,3 China 22,7 Tajikistan 2004 17 Moldova , 14,7 Armenia Korea 9,8 Azerbaijan 6,1 Turkey 5 Viet Nam 4,4 Uzbekistan Temporary Labour Migration. The Number of Labour Migrants from the CIS Countries (Legal and Illegal), Working Abroad at a Time in 2002, thousands Country Minimum Maximum Russia 250 1,500 Armenia 800 1.500 Azerbaijan 1.500 2.000 Georgia 100 1.000 Moldova 600 700 Tajikistan 200 250 The Ukraine 2.000 3.000 Uzbekistan … 500 Temporary Labour Migration. The Sums of Transfers of the Labour Migrants to Some CIS Countries from Abroad in 2000 Country The World Bank estimation Official transfers (remittance) and unofficial (private) transfers estimations according to other sources Total, million The share in the Total, million The share in the Us Dollars Gross National Us Dollars Gross National Product of the Product of the country,% country,% Russia*** 740,0 0,2 … … Armenia 15,0 0,8 300,0 8,0-9,0 Azerbaijan 57,0 1,1 … … Georgia 95,0 3,1 … ... Moldova 3,0 0,3 150,0-170,0 4,3-4,8 Kazakhstan 64,0 0,3 … … Kyrgyzstan 2,0 0,2 … … Notes: * - the data of The Central Bank of Armenia; ** -the data of The Strategic Research and Reform Center of the Republic of Moldova; *** - the data of The Bank of Russia (the results of 2002). TheThe BasicBasic DirectionsDirections ofof thethe MigrationMigration PolicyPolicy inin thethe RussianRussian FederationFederation atat thethe PresentPresent StageStage:: •• - the attraction of immigrants for permanent residence from the states of “the new abroad” to replace the natural population decline in the country. The net migration should be, at least, no less than the scales of the natural population decline; •• - the attraction of the labour migrants from the countries of “the new and the old abroad” to the industries and regions according to the economic and geopolitical interests of Russia. The volumes of labour migration should cover the deficit in manpower on a labour market; •• - the settling of the inner Russian migrants and immigrants from the category of compatriots, and also forming the resident population in geopolitically important regions of the country. First of all, in the frontier areas of Siberia and the Far East; •• - the reduction of high-qualified staff emigration from the country for permanent residence abroad. InternationalInternational MigrationMigration inin thethe RussianRussian FederationFederation Sergey V. Ryazantsev Leonid L. Rybakovsky Social Demography Department of the Socio-Political Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow www.ispr.ru E-mail: [email protected].